Forest Expansion Research Articles

Spatial Distributions and Edge Relationships of Plant Communities in Coastal Barrens in Nova Scotia, Canada

Coastal barrens support varied vegetation that includes wetlands, dwarf shrublands, and small patches of forest. Forest expansion, sea-level rise and recreational trails affect plant communities but spatial vegetation patterns within barrens are unknown. Using high-resolution multispectral aerial imagery, we classified plant communities and other land cover types using 500m x 500m landcover maps at three coastal barrens sites on the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, Canada. Community patches were compared using size and shape metrics; shared edge length identified adjacent communities. Community distributions were modelled using environmental variables such as elevation and distance to coast. Forty distinct plant communities were detected, with shrublands (37.5% total area), dwarf shrublands (23.3%) and bog wetlands (13.9%) the most abundant. Average patch size was 9.2 m2; average patch density was 951 patches/ha, indicating fine scale community variability. Recreational vehicle trails occurred primarily in bog wetlands. Dwarf shrublands and some wetland types were closest to the coastline; taller shrublands and tree islands occurred further from the coast. Edge relationships revealed a vegetation height gradient across the forest-barren ecotone: tree islands were mostly adjacent to tall shrub communities, followed by progressively shorter vegetation. Topographic variability and distance to coast were important predictors of community distribution. Edge relationships among communities allowed identification of those most at risk from trail disturbance, forest expansion and coastal squeeze.

Land covers associated with forest expansion hot spots in the Nepal Himalaya

Abstract Many regions of the Himalaya are experiencing forest expansion, signifying a widespread forest transition across this fragile mountain system. In the Nepal Himalaya, forest expansion is increasingly attributed to the narrative of cropland abandonment driven by rural outmigration. Understanding forest change dynamics as consequences of land use changes is critical in the context of rural mountain societies such as Nepal, which exhibit complex interactions between forest, agriculture, and livelihoods. We analysed forest gain in Nepal from 2000–2019 to inquire where and when forests have expanded and what land covers transitioned into forests. We integrated spatiotemporal analysis of national land cover maps and photointerpretation of very high resolution (VHR) imagery to improve analytical estimates. The Middle Mountain physiographic region experienced the strongest hot spots of forest gains relative to the high mountains or lowlands. Visual interpretation of VHR showed that 68.8% of forest gains since 2000 occurred on shrubland, and 26.5% on cropland. The dominance of shrubland-forest transitions implied that shrubland is an intermediate stage in a multi-decadal succession process, or a semi-permanent state such as arrested succession. Notably however, we also detected cropland-forest transitions occurring as fast as 6–10 years, indicating the potential for rapid forest succession if biophysical conditions permit. Thus, variations in land cover transitions to forests in the hills implicated multiple pathways of forest regeneration, reflecting a variety of spatiotemporally explicit drivers. Our results differ from previous studies because VHR image analysis accounted for land cover classification errors and improved land cover quantification. Further research on spatially explicit mechanisms and drivers of forest gain are needed to understand the synergies of forest, agriculture, and livelihoods to inform land use land cover policies that could be leveraged to enhance rural mountain livelihoods.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Soil Erosion in the Pisha Sandstone Region: Influences of Precipitation and Vegetation

The Pisha sandstone area, situated in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River in China, is characterized by severe soil and water erosion, making it one of the most critical regions on the Loess Plateau. The rugged terrain and exposed bedrock complicate management efforts for this area, posing challenges for accurate forecasting using soil erosion models. Through an analysis of terrain, vegetation, and precipitation impacts on soil erosion, this study offers theoretical support for predicting soil erosion within the exposed Pisha sandstone area of the Loess Plateau. This has substantial implications for guiding water and soil conservation measures in this region. Focusing on China’s exposed sandstone area within the Geqiugou watershed, temporal and spatial changes in vegetation cover and land use from 1990 to 2020 were analyzed. The result shows that, from 1990 to 2020, the grassland area has exhibited a consistent downward trend, with successive reductions of 64.86% to 59.46%. The area of low vegetation cover witnessed a significant decline of 59.29% in 2020 compared to that in 1990. The moderate erosion area decreased from 84.52 to 57.17 km2. The significant reduction in soil and water loss can be attributed to the expansion of forest and grassland areas, with the implementation of the Grain for Green project serving as a key policy driver for facilitating this expansion. This study provided a good example of combining rainfall with vegetation coverage to fast estimation soil erosion. A mathematical relationship between the vegetation rainfall coupling index (RV) and soil erosion was established with strong fitting effects, enabling estimation of the soil erosion volume under varying slope conditions within Pisha sandstone areas. The main focus of future soil and water conservation in the Pisha sandstone area should be on effectively managing the channel slope and minimizing exposed bedrock areas through a combination of slope cutting, the application of anticorrosive materials, and the implementation of artificial vegetation planting.

How the characteristics of land cover changes affect vegetation greenness in Guangdong, a rapid urbanization region of China during 2001-2022.

To evaluate the quantitative impacts of land cover change on vegetation greenness in the significantly human-impacted subtropical region, the characteristics of land cover change were explored by land use dynamic degree, transition matrix and normalized entropy. Various methods including Standardized coefficient, LMG (Lindeman-Merenda-Gold), GEN (Genizi measure) and CAR (Correlation-Adjusted Marginal Correlation) were employed to estimate the contributions of land cover changes on vegetation greenness using MODIS data during 2001-2022 in Guangdong. The conclusions revealed that land cover changes exhibited obvious temporal characteristics in Guangdong with a significantly increasing trend of normalized entropy indicating a more balanced distribution of land cover types under human intervention. NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) tended to increase likely due to the large-scale increase in evergreen forest. With regard to the contributions of impact factors on vegetation greenness, the contributions evaluated by LMG, GEN and CAR showed that the natural variation of NDVI accounted for the major contribution (> 33%), while the changes of evergreen forest and grassland had the highest contribution (> 37%) according to Standardized coefficient. These differences were mainly due to the characteristics of land cover changes in Guangdong, the correlations among impact factors and the inherent attributions of the methods. Moreover, the expansions of evergreen forest and urban at the expense of the reductions of grassland and cropland also had significant impacts on NDVI (> 10%) according to LMG, GEN and CAR indicating that human-induced land cover changes had remarkable influences on NDVI.

Highland forest dynamics across equatorial East Africa during the end of the African humid period

Tropical mountain ecosystems hold immense ecological and economic importance, yet they face disproportionate risks from shifting tropical climates. For example, present-day montane vegetation of East Africa is characterized by different plant species that grow in and are restricted to certain elevations due to environmental tolerances. As climate changes and temperature/rainfall zones move on mountains, these species must rapidly adjust their ranges or risk extinction.Paleoenvironmental records offer valuable insights into past climate and ecosystem dynamics, aiding predictions for ongoing climate change impacts. In particular, warming and wetting in tropical East Africa during the mid-Holocene resulted in both lowland and highland forest expansion. However, the relative impacts of rainfall and temperature change on montane ecosystems along with the influence of lowland forest expansion on montane communities is not completely understood. We use fossil pollen to study the vegetation changes in two lakes at different altitudes in the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda: Lake Mahoma (Montane Forest belt) and Upper Kachope Lake (Afroalpine belt). Further, using the newly relaunched African Pollen Database and recent temperature reconstructions, we provide a regional synthesis of vegetation changes in the Rwenzori and then compare this with changes observed from other equatorial East African montane sites (particularly Mt Kenya).In the early to mid-Holocene in the Rwenzori Mountains, trees common today in lowland forests dominated, driven largely by warmer temperatures. After 4000 years ago (4ka), Afromontane forest trees along with grasses progressively replaced lowland trees. Not all sites experienced identical transitions. For instance, at Lake Rutundu on Mt Kenya at the same elevation as Lake Mahoma, bamboo expansion preceded Afromontane forest growth, likely influenced by variations in fire. Variance partitioning indicates that each site responded differently to changes in temperature and rainfall. Therefore, these site-specific ecological responses underscore the importance of considering biogeographic legacies as management strategies are developed, despite similarities in modern ecology.

Vegetation and environmental changes on the Northeast China Plain during warm periods since MIS 3

Understanding past terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate changes is vital for future predictions, but research in densely populated plains is limited due to insufficient materials. This study focuses on vegetation and environmental changes in the Northeast China Plain since Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 3 using pollen analysis from core WCZK03. The findings reveal significant shifts in vegetation that correspond to climatic events. During MIS 3 (52–29 cal ka BP), the region was predominantly a lake environment with vegetation transitioning from grassland dominated by Poaceae, Chenopodiaceae and Artemisia to conifer-broadleaf mixed forests as the climate ameliorated. The Last Glacial Maximum (29–17 cal ka BP) was characterized by loess deposits, followed by drought-tolerant grassland (17.0–11.3 cal ka BP) dominated by Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae in the plain. The onset of the Holocene witnessed the expansion of conifer and broad-leaved deciduous forests in hilly areas and the retreat of grassland in the plain. The sedimentary sequence shows transitions from fluvial-lacustrine deposits to loess-like and black soil deposits, showing significant environmental changes. This study suggests that changes in vegetation on the Northeast China Plain were closely related to regional climate patterns and were more responsive to climate changes than the surrounding mountainous areas.

Timber and carbon sequestration potential of Chinese forests under different forest management scenarios

Developing forestry action plans with the goal of carbon neutrality is a critical task to identify carbon sink potential and balance the pathways of China's forests. Current research that predicts forest biomass carbon stock and sink potential has shortcomings, such as an incomplete assessment of China's forest carbon sink range, assumptions based on unchanged forest area in the base year and insufficient consideration of natural and human disturbance factors. This study utilised the national forest inventory (NFI) data to construct a model of forest growth and consumption using a machine learning algorithm (i.e. random forest), identified suitable areas for future forest expansion by integrating multi-source data, and set up three future forest management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), enhanced policy scenario (EPS) and maximum potential scenario (MPS). In addition, changes in the area, volume stock and biomass carbon stock in China's forests between 2020 and 2060 were predicted under three forestry activities (i.e. existing forest, afforested/reforested (AR) forest and forest conversion) and three climate scenarios (i.e. SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585) based on the 9th NFI (2014–2018). According to China's relevant planning goals and suitable forest space, the area of AR forests is predicted to be 55.55 × 106 hm2 by 2060, and the forest coverage rate is predicted to increase from 23% in 2018 to 28% by 2060. Biomass carbon sequestration (BCS) between 2020 and 2060 in AR forests is predicted to be 36.00 TgC per year. By 2060, the average BCS is predicted to be approximately 140.00–287.56 TgC per year in China's forests, which is mainly owing to arbor forest management. Under the BAU and EPS scenarios, BCS in China's forests is expected to decline from 2020 to 2060. However, under the MPS, BCS in China's forests is projected to increase and be maintained at 322 TgC per year or above by 2060, with wood production reaching 4.71 × 108 m3 per year. China's forests are predicted to experience an increase in biomass carbon stock in the future and play a role as a carbon sink. By taking measures to achieve the maximum growth potential of all forest types, China's forests will achieve a win‒win situation between carbon sinks and timber production.

Responses of vegetation to hydroclimatic variables on the Loess Plateau after large scale vegetation restoration

AbstractUnderstanding plant‐water relations is essential for effective regional water management and promoting ecologically sustainable development on the Loess Plateau, especially in the context of the Grain for Green project initiated in 1999. This study evaluated the variations in vegetation variables (leaf area index, enhanced vegetation index, solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence and gross primary production) and hydroclimatic variables (precipitation, total water storage, aridity index and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) from 2003 to 2020, along with their interactions across the Loess Plateau. Our analysis revealed a general increase in vegetation variables, with the largest increase observed in the forest expansion areas. Precipitation and the aridity index exhibited significant upwards trends, while total water storage showed a significant decline, particularly in the forest expansion areas. Vegetation variables were more sensitive to changes in total water storage across the Loess Plateau. In the northwest region, where large‐scale croplands and grasslands expansion occurred, vegetation variables also showed sensitivity to precipitation. Lag effect analysis revealed short time lags (1–3 months) between vegetation and hydroclimatic variables, expect for total water storage (6 months). Overall, human activities and climate factors contributed 58.4% and 41.6% to the increase in leaf area index, and 52.2% and 47.8% to the increase in gross primary production, respectively. In relatively arid environments, precipitation contributed over 50% to the observed vegetation greening. This study underscores the increasingly significant role of human activities in driving vegetation greening on the Loess Plateau, particularly in large‐scale afforestation areas.

Historical vegetation shifts in southeastern Amazonia: Unraveling ecotone dynamics in the Carajás region over the last ∼14000 cal yr BP

This study investigates the Pleistocene–Holocene transition in Serra Leste, a highly endangered southeastern Amazonian ecotone, with a focus on the lake-filling process, climate changes, and potential consequences to forest and savanna dynamics. The lake's development began at approximately 14000 cal yr BP, resulting from the collapse of the fractured lateritic crust. Sedimentation patterns and geochemical, palynological and micro-charcoal proxies reveal shifts in detrital input and redox conditions, forest/savanna areas, and local and regional fire events, indicating a highly dynamic environmental history. The evolution of the lake is characterized by initial deltaic lobe deposition and forest dominance, followed in the Middle Holocene by sedimentary gaps or reduced detrital input; woody vegetation dominance, with a notable shift toward a more open landscape; and savanna and semideciduous dry forest, accompanied by a decrease in ombrophilous forests. A resurgence in arboreal elements recorded in the Late Holocene indicates an expansion of ombrophilous forests under wetter climate conditions and the establishment of a more continuous forest matrix, with the presence of likely “hyperdominant” taxa. Frequent local fire events and the occurrence of temporarily correlated archeological sites in the Serra Leste region suggest the influence of ancient indigenous communities on vegetation changes during the Late Holocene.

Dynamic Monitoring and Analysis of Ecological Environment Quality in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas Based on a Modified Remote Sensing Ecological Index (MRSEI): A Case Study of the Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve

The ecosystems within the Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve (QMNNR) and its surrounding areas have been significantly affected by changes in climate and land use, which have, in turn, constrained the region’s socio-economic development. This study investigates the regional characteristics and application requirements of the ecological environment in the arid and semi-arid zones of the reserve. In view of the saturated characteristics of NDVI in the reserve and the high-altitude saline-alkali environmental conditions, this study proposed a Modified Remote Sensing Ecology Index (MRSEI) by introducing the kernel NDVI and comprehensive salinity index (CSI). This approach enhances the applicability of the remote sensing ecological index. The temporal and spatial dynamics of ecological and environmental quality within the QMNNR from 2000 to 2022 were quantitatively assessed using the MRSEI. The effect of land use on ecological quality was quantified by analyzing the MRSEI contribution rate. The findings in this paper indicate that (1) in arid and semi-arid regions, the MRSEI provides a more precise representation of surface ecological environmental quality compared to the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI). The high correlation (R2 = 0.908) and significant difference between MRSEI and RSEI demonstrate that MRSEI enhances the accuracy of evaluating ecological environmental quality. The impact of land use on ecological quality was quantitatively assessed by analyzing the contribution rate of the MRSEI. (2) The ecological quality of the QMNNR exhibited an upward trend from 2000 to 2022, with an increase rate of 1.3 × 10−3 y−1. The area characterized by improved ecological and environmental quality constitutes approximately 53.68% of the total area. Conversely, the ecological quality of the degraded areas accounts for roughly 28.77%. (3) Among the various land use types, the improvement in ecological environmental quality within the reserve is primarily attributed to the expansion of forest and grassland areas, along with a reduction in unused land. Forest and grassland types account for over 90% of the total area classified with “good” and “excellent” ecological grades, whereas unused land types represent more than 44% of the total area classified with “poor” ecological grades. Overall, this study provides a valuable framework for analyzing ecological and environmental changes in arid and semi-arid regions.

Assessing Land-Cover Change Trends, Patterns, and Transitions in Coalfield Counties of Eastern Kentucky, USA

Surface coal mining and reclamation have greatly reshaped eastern Kentucky’s landscape affecting its socioeconomic, environmental and climatic aspects. This study examined the land-cover changes, trends and patterns in Floyd, Knott, Letcher, Magoffin, Martin, Perry, and Pike counties from 2004 to 2019. Using a random forest classifier, land cover was categorized into seven major classes, i.e., water, barren land, developed land, forest, shrubland, herbaceous, and planted/cultivated, majorly based on Landsat images. The Kappa accuracy ranged from 75 to 89%. The results showed a notable increase in forest area from 5052 sq km to 5305 sq km accompanied by a substantial decrease in barren land from 179 sq km to 91 sq km from 2004 to 2019. These findings demonstrated that reclamation activities positively impacted the forest expansion and reduced the barren land of the study area. Key land-cover transitions included barren land to shrubland/herbaceous, forest to shrubland, and shrubland to forest, indicating vegetation growth from 2004 to 2019. An autocorrelation analysis indicated similar land-cover types clustered together, showing effective forest restoration efforts. As surface coal mining and reclamation significantly influenced the landscapes of the coalfield counties in eastern Kentucky, this study provides a holistic perspective for understanding the repercussions of these transformations, including their effects on humans, society, and environmental health.

Budworms, beetles and wildfire: Disturbance interactions influence the likelihood of insect‐caused disturbances at a subcontinental scale

Abstract Irruptive forest insects are a leading biotic disturbance across temperate and boreal forests. Outbreaks of forest insects are becoming more frequent and extensive due to anthropogenic drivers (e.g. climate and land‐use), perhaps increasing the likelihood that forests will experience multiple insect‐caused disturbances. Across the fire‐prone Douglas‐fir forests of western North America, recent outbreaks of the western spruce budworm and Douglas‐fir beetle have impacted large expanses of forests, with a higher degree of overlap than expected in some ecoregions. Outbreaks of both insects are positively related to host availability and exhibit density‐dependent population dynamics that are affected by climate and weather. Here, we leverage data from aerial detection surveys, estimates of host availability, climate and weather, and categorized fire severity to describe the spatial overlap between western spruce budworm and Douglas‐fir beetle and assess: (1) how climate and host availability influence the biogeography of outbreaks; (2) how weather incites outbreaks; and finally, (3) how prior disturbances (fire and biotic) affect the subsequent outbreak likelihood of western spruce budworm and Douglas‐fir beetle. Models demonstrate that western spruce budworm and Douglas‐fir beetle share similar predisposing drivers of outbreaks. Outbreaks of both insects were more likely to occur following warm weather, but only beetle outbreaks were more likely following drought. When controlling for differences in outbreak distribution and inciting factors, results indicate that both prior fire and interspecific disturbance altered the likelihood of subsequent insect‐caused disturbance. Specifically, Douglas‐fir beetle outbreaks were more likely to occur for several years following low severity fire, but less likely otherwise. Prior defoliation, especially longer duration defoliation, increased the likelihood of beetle outbreak within stands and across the landscape. On the contrary, western spruce budworm outbreaks were less likely to occur following fire, while prior beetle activity dampened budworm outbreak likelihood for several years, and then eventually increased outbreak likelihood. Synthesis: Biotic–biotic disturbance interactions have the potential to amplify the incidence of insect‐caused disturbance across subcontinental scales. Our findings highlight the need for future work on mechanistic linkages between biotic disturbance agents as well as the ramifications for forest trajectories and function.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes and Carbon Storage Prediction Coupled with the SD-PLUS-InVEST Model: A Case Study of the Tuojiang River Basin, China

Land-use and land-cover changes (LUCCs) significantly impact carbon sequestration by modifying the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems. This study utilized GIS and remote sensing techniques to forecast future LUCC patterns and their influence on regional carbon budgets, which is essential for sustainable development. We devised a coupled system dynamics (SD) model integrated with a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate LUCCs under diverse future scenarios using multisource environmental data. Additionally, the InVEST model was employed to quantify carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. By establishing three scenarios—ecological priority (EP), highly urbanized (HU), and coordinated development (CD)—this study’s aim was to predict the LUCC patterns and carbon storage distribution of the Tuojiang River Basin (TRB), China, up to 2035. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, significant LUCCs occurred in the TRB, primarily involving the conversion of cultivated land into construction areas and forestland; (2) LUCCs had a substantial impact on carbon storage in the TRB, with the EP scenario demonstrating the highest carbon storage by 2035 due to extensive forest expansion, while the HU scenario indicated a decline in carbon storage associated with rapid urbanization; and (3) the mountainous regions of the TRB, dominated by forestland, consistently exhibited higher carbon storage, whereas the Chengdu Plain region in the upper basin displayed the lowest. In conclusion, we recommend prioritizing the CD scenario in future development strategies to balance economic growth with ecological protection while simultaneously enhancing carbon storage. Our findings offer valuable insights to shape future LUCC policies in the Tuojiang River Basin, underscoring the adaptability of the coupled model approach to a wide range of geographic scales and contexts.

Natural forest colonisation as a management strategy to restore soil functioning of abandoned agricultural lands

Abstract Land abandonment promotes forest expansion into abandoned agricultural lands in Europe. This process leads to changes that affect several ecosystem services, but it is considered a low‐cost strategy to restore soil functions in past agricultural lands. Soil microbial communities play a key role in restoring functions. However, the relationship among forest expansion, microbial communities, and soil functioning is unclear. In this study, we used a Juniperus thurifera expansion gradient on abandoned agricultural lands in Alto Tajo National Park (Spain) to discover the changes elicited by the soil microbial communities and their functions along this gradient considering two microhabitats, under the canopy and open areas. Specifically, our objectives were (i) to analyse how soil properties (organic matter and pH), microbial communities (using PLFAs‐NFLAs) and enzymatic activities (related to C, N and P cycling) varied along the forest expansion gradient and between microhabitats and (ii) to decipher the pathways by which soil properties control the carbon and nutrient cycling in soils. The forest expansion gradient had a direct negative effect on phosphatase activity. The microhabitat showed a positive direct effect on organic matter content, pH, actinomycetes and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi biomass and on soil C and P cycling. Moreover, the biomass of gram‐positive bacteria determined the biomass of other microbial groups. Synthesis and Applications: Though its effectiveness is variable, passive restoration can be more effective than active restoration. Our research indicates that passive tree colonisation of past agricultural land is enough to achieve soil functionality similar to a mature forest for most variables studied. However, some variables would need more time to reach mature forest levels, such as total microbial biomass and organic matter content. Therefore, to support ecosystem recovery, the management of this applied forest ecology strategy requires continuous monitoring of newly established trees and soil to elucidate the time needed to achieve mature soil properties.

Soil pH enhancement and alterations in nutrient and Bacterial Community profiles following Pleioblastus amarus expansion in tea plantations

BackgroundThe expansion of bamboo forests increases environmental heterogeneity in tea plantation ecosystems, affecting soil properties and microbial communities. Understanding these impacts is essential for developing sustainable bamboo management and maintaining ecological balance in tea plantations.MethodsWe studied the effect of the continuous expansion of Pleioblastus amarus into tea plantations, by establishing five plot types: pure P. amarus forest area (BF), P. amarus forest interface area (BA), mixed forest interface area (MA), mixed forest center area (TB), and pure tea plantation area (TF). We conducted a comprehensive analysis of soil chemical properties and utilized Illumina sequencing to profile microbial community composition and diversity, emphasizing their responses to bamboo expansion.Results(1) Bamboo expansion significantly raised soil pH and enhanced levels of organic matter, nitrogen, and phosphorus, particularly noticeable in BA and MA sites. In the TB sites, improvements in soil nutrients were statistically indistinguishable from those in pure tea plantation areas. (2) Continuous bamboo expansion led to significant changes in soil bacterial diversity, especially noticeable between BA and TF sites, while fungal diversity was unaffected. (3) Bamboo expansion substantially altered the composition of less abundant bacterial and fungal communities, which proved more sensitive to changes in soil chemical properties.ConclusionThe expansion of bamboo forests causes significant alterations in soil pH and nutrient characteristics, impacting the diversity and composition of soil bacteria in tea plantations. However, as expansion progresses, its long-term beneficial impact on soil quality in tea plantations appears limited.

Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion

Abstract. Large-scale reforestation, afforestation, and forest restoration schemes have gained global support as climate change mitigation strategies due to their significant carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential. However, there has been limited research into the unintended consequences of forestation from a biophysical perspective. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), we apply a global forestation scenario, within a Paris Agreement-compatible warming scenario, to investigate the land surface and hydroclimate response. Compared to a control scenario where land use is fixed to present-day levels, the forestation scenario is up to 2 °C cooler at low latitudes by 2100, driven by a 10 % increase in evaporative cooling in forested areas. However, afforested areas where grassland or shrubland are replaced lead to a doubling of plant water demand in some tropical regions, causing significant decreases in soil moisture (∼ 5 % globally, 5 %–10 % regionally) and water availability (∼ 10 % globally, 10 %–15 % regionally) in regions with increased forest cover. While there are some increases in low cloud and seasonal precipitation over the expanded tropical forests, with enhanced negative cloud radiative forcing, the impacts on large-scale precipitation and atmospheric circulation are limited. This contrasts with the precipitation response to simulated large-scale deforestation found in previous studies. The forestation scenario demonstrates local cooling benefits without major disruption to global hydrodynamics beyond those already projected to result from climate change, in addition to the cooling associated with CDR. However, the water demands of extensive forestation, especially afforestation, have implications for its viability, given the uncertainty in future precipitation changes.

Enhancing natural carbon sinks: Simulation of land use change under different carbon market scenarios by developing an ANN-ABM model

The carbon market mechanism presents an innovative approach to achieving carbon neutrality, however, its impact on regional carbon sink enhancement remains uncertain. This paper proposes an analysis framework based on an Artificial Neural Network-Agent-Based Model (ANN-ABM) to simulate the potential contribution of carbon market mechanism in enhancing carbon sinks. Taking the case of Chongming, China, the results demonstrate significant economic potential with forest land expansion from 2010 to 2020, equivalent to 30.69 % of eco-compensation. Under scenarios introducing a carbon market, there is an increased probability of converting land to high carbon sink types. Compared to the baseline scenario, carbon prices at 1.34 US$/t and 6.27 US$/t result in additional funds of 8.94 % and 41.46 %, respectively, and increase the carbon sink by 12.52 % and 30.28 %. The findings contribute to an understanding of how the value of carbon sinks can be realized through market mechanism and offer guidance for innovative eco-compensation approaches.

Cattle and nurse trees shape subtropical forest–grassland ecotones

Abstract South American subtropical landscapes are dominated by open grasslands and mosaics of forest–grassland formations. Forests are often restricted to riverine margins with sharp forest–grassland ecotones. Understanding the mechanisms maintaining forest–grassland ecotones is important to anticipate the effects of changing climate and disturbance regimes on the extent of these biomes and the ecosystem services they provide. We used a combination of field surveys and long‐term field experiments to explore the mechanisms that explain tree cover expansion at the ecotone of riverine forests and grasslands in central Uruguay, within the South American Campos. We assessed the role of tree seed dispersal and seedling establishment limitations, and experimentally tested for the effects of cattle, nurse tree cover and grasses on the recruitment of forest and grassland tree species at the forest–grassland ecotone. We found that forest expansion depends on the interplay between cattle and nurse trees. Vachellia caven trees colonize the grassland successfully and facilitate the formation of forest patches by enhancing seed accumulation and seedling establishment of forest tree species. Surprisingly, grass cover had mostly positive effects on early seedling survival of forest tree seedlings. However, cattle limits tree seedling growth and survival, especially of forest tree species. This results in a nucleated vegetation pattern of tree patches that ultimately limits forest expansion. Synthesis and applications. Tree cover can potentially expand on the subtropical South American grasslands. Reductions in cattle densities and increases in rainfall levels associated with climate change could facilitate forest expansion in this region.

Impacts of Forest Management‐Induced Productivity Changes on Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

AbstractAnthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) is projected to continue in the future. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent LULCC projections remains under‐investigated. This study explored the impacts of forest management‐induced change in forest productivity on LULCC throughout the 21st century. Specifically, we developed a framework to softly couple the Global Change Analysis Model and Global Timber Model to consider forest management‐induced forest productivity change and projected future LULCC across the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We found future increases in forest management intensity overall drive the increase of forest productivity. The forest management‐induced forest productivity change shows diverse responses across all SSPs, with a global increase from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 3.9% (SSP3) to 8.8% (SSP1). This further leads to an overall decrease in the total area with a change of land use types, with the largest decrease under SSP1 (−7.5%) and the smallest decrease under SSP3 (−0.7%) in 2100. Among land use types, considering forest management‐induced change significantly reduces the expansion of managed forest and also reduces the loss of natural land in 2100 across SSPs. This suggests that ignoring forest management‐induced forest productivity change underestimates the efficiency of wood production, overestimates the managed forest expansion required to meet the future demand, and consequently, potentially introduces uncertainties into relevant analyses, for example, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Thus, we advocate to better account for the impacts of forest management in future LULCC projections.

Combustion and energy performance of non-commercial Corymbia and Eucalyptus wood for use in cogeneration systems in Brazil

The increased representation of biomass in the Brazilian energy matrix will contribute to reducing dependence on hydroenergy and mitigating negative impacts during increasingly frequent drought periods. However, given the changing climate, it is urgent to classify and select new genotypes for the expansion of energy plantations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the energy performance and combustibility of wood from Eucalyptus and Corymbia trees to support a knowledge-based and efficient use of such woods in thermochemical conversion systems. Eight species of Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus amplifolia, E. longirostrata, E. major, and E. urophylla) and Corymbia (Corymbia citriodora, C. variegata, C. henryi, C. torelliana), which are not generally used for energy purposes, were selected at 6 years of age from experimental plantations in southeastern Brazil. Wood basic density (WBD), ash content (AC), higher heating value (HHV), fuel value index (FVI), ignition (Di), flammability (Ci) and combustion (Si) indexes were determined. The wood of E. urophylla and C. torelliana presented showed the highest and lowest FVI, respectively. Regarding combustion indexes E. longirostrata had a higher combustion index (4.00 ×107 %2/(min2°C3)), flammability (1.49 %min−1/°C2) and ignition (4.39 % min−3) while C. variegata presented the lowest values. The FVI showed correlations with the combustibility of wood. Thus, this index can be used for the rapid and reliable classification of new genetic materials for energy forests in Brazil. E. urophylla and E. longirostrata woods demonstrated better energy performance and combustion indexes, making them the most suitable species for use in cogeneration systems and candidates for the expansion of energetic forests in Brazil.