Foresight Programmes Research Articles

Facilitating an Entrepreneurial Discovery Process for Smart Specialisation. The Case of Poland

The purpose of this paper is to study stakeholder involvement in research and innovation policy in Poland in the context of smart specialisation exercise. The article addresses the questions to what extent initiatives such as the foresight programmes, strategic research and development programmes, and sectoral research programmes facilitate the entrepreneurial discovery process for smart specialisation. The role of different groups of actors varies substantially in terms of their involvement and impact on such initiatives. The foresight and strategic research and development programmes were dominated by representatives of the research community and embody a research-oriented top-down approach. The sectoral research programmes are most closely related to the bottom-up and demand-driven approach in which the leading role is played by entrepreneurs. For this reason, they are more familiar with the conditions of the entrepreneurial discovery process. In this case, the important role is also played by the governmental agency which facilitates those processes.

Preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: pathways from anticipation to action.

Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease (EID) events can have devastating human, animal and environmental health impacts. The emergence of EIDs has been associated with interconnected economic, social and environmental changes. Understanding these changes is crucial for EID preparedness and subsequent prevention and control of EID events. The aim of this review is to describe tools currently available for identification, prioritization and investigation of EIDs impacting human and animal health, and how these might be integrated into a systematic approach for directing EID preparedness. Environmental scanning, foresight programmes, horizon scanning and surveillance are used to collect and assess information for rapidly responding to EIDs and to anticipate drivers of emergence for mitigating future EID impacts. Prioritization of EIDs-using transparent and repeatable methods-based on disease impacts and the importance of those impacts to decision-makers can then be used for more efficient resource allocation for prevention and control. Risk assessment and simulation modelling methods assess the likelihood of EIDs occurring, define impact and identify mitigation strategies. Each of these tools has a role to play individually; however, we propose integration of these tools into a framework that enhances the development of tactical and strategic plans for emerging risk preparedness.

Constructing Optimal Futures for Education - Technology Foresight in Educational Policy and Planning

This article focuses on challenges associated with the use of technology foresight for developing long-term strategies for innovative uses of ICT in education with an emphasis on the role of creativity. The outcomes of two international foresight programmes on the future of education are critically examined. The findings demonstrate the need to address programme participants’ capacity to engage in systematic futures thinking and to emphasise creative aspects of constructing shared visions of the future.

Beyond the veil — The real value of Foresight

The wide application of foresight would benefit from a common assessment framework that hardly exists. This would require a higher level of reference, i.e. pursuing more generic goals. This is offered by the two concepts of “knowledge society” and “participatory governance”. The aim of the research is to develop an impact assessment framework of foresight programmes in developing more participatory “knowledge societies” beyond their specific aims. Research shows that the major impacts of foresight belong to three groups, i.e. in relation to knowledge, network creation, and promoting public engagement in policy-making. At the same time, the major features of modern societies are of three types, i.e. related to knowledge value, to innovation-driven growth and to consequences of a “risk society”. Thus, the relevant areas where foresight might contribute are: knowledge, networking, and coping with a ‘risk society’. The new framework is built on the features and pre-conditions of more participatory societies and draws upon existing evaluation approaches and concepts (“theory-based evaluation”, “knowledge value framework”, “behavioural” and “cognitive capacity additionality”) to tackle short-comings of earlier evaluation efforts. It is then tested in a case study that demonstrates its feasibility and comprehensiveness and further refines the assessment criteria it is based on.

Форсайт-исследования: страновая специфика и общие закономерности

Foresight has become a widely employed method in the last decades, however only few of the foresight programmes proved to be successful and long lasting. This poses a controversy taking into account that the concept and the methodology of foresight have been exhaustively studied, and the achieved level of information, consultative and organizational support at hand is sufficient to carry out projects of different scale and subject. The author presumes that the reasons lie in the predominant attention of foresight actors to its material outcomes and methodology instead of mechanisms that form the very basis of the system, whose future is subject to analysis by means of foresight. The hypothesis is further justified with analysis of foresight programmes in the Great Britain and Brazil, which enables to propose a revised definition of the foresight concept.

Лучшая практика оценки научно-технологического Форсайта: базовые элементы и ключевые критерии

Макарова Екатерина Александровна - стажер-исследователь, Лаборатория исследований науки и технологий. E-mail: kmakarova@hse.ruСоколова Анна Владимировна - старший научный сотрудник, Лаборатория исследований науки и технологий. E-mail: avsokolova@hse.ruИнститут статистических исследований и экономики знаний НИУ ВШЭАдрес: Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», 101000, Москва, Мясницкая ул., 20По мере расширения влияния Форсайт-исследований на формирование стратегий развития компаний, отраслей и стран возрастают требования к качеству и обоснованности их результатов. Как следствие, большое значение приобретают своевременное выявление и устранение возможных пробелов в организации Форсайт-проектов. Комплексная экспертиза Форсайта позволяет оценить эффективность проведенных мероприятий, проанализировать результаты с точки зрения решения о его дальнейшей реализации и выявить пути совершенствования подобных исследований. Несмотря на высокий интерес к вопросам оценки Форсайта, проявляемый стейкхолдерами различного уровня, общие принципы ее организации и проведения до сих пор не сформулированы, что сдерживает развитие данной деятельности и распространение успешного опыта.Авторы статьи ставят задачу определения базовых элементов оценки национального Форсайта, соответствующих критериев и методов. В этой связи рассматриваются и систематизируются кейсы оценки национальных Форсайт-программ, представляющие ценность с точки зрения задач, объектов экспертизы, использованных методов и полученных выводов. Кроме того, анализируется опыт, накопленный в рамках теории и практики управления проектами.Исследование показало, что ключевой мотивацией к проведению оценки является формирование обратной связи для национального Форсайта и определение направлений его дальнейшего развития. Итогом любой экспертизы становились корректировка «курса» Форсайта (в той или иной степени) и перечень извлеченных уроков для дальнейших проектов (например, упрощение процесса реализации, активное привлечение бизнеса и общественных организаций, признание необходимости более четкого соответствия методологии и состава участников задачам исследования и др.).Полученные результаты могут служить основой формируемой в настоящее время единой методологии оценки национальных Форсайт-программ. Ее использование позволит проводить комплексный анализ Форсайта, обеспечит сопоставимость критериев оценки Форсайт-инициатив в разных странах, а также будет способствовать стандартизации оценочных процедур.

Adaptive foresight modular design and dynamic adjustment mechanism: Framework and Taiwan case study

In response to future external environmental challenges and to foster a consensus on national development, over the past 30years developed and developing countries have endeavored to set a national direction for development and allocation of R&D resources through a standardized operational model on foresight projects. However, major national foresight programmes that have a 4–5year cycle have encountered many challenges. These challenges include prolonged planning time, resulting in not keeping pace with the ever-changing environment, massive resource investment unsuitable for countries with limited resources, and bottlenecks such as inoperability of the planning processes connected to follow-up project promotion. In this article, we propose a dynamic modular design perspective to overcome such difficulties and demonstrate the process and achievements of foresight planning using the Taiwan Industry and Advanced Technology Research Project as an example. Our research results can serve as a reference in national technology foresight planning for developing countries with limited resources in the rapidly changing technology development environment.

Dynamic foresight evaluation

PurposeThis paper aims to depict foresight programmes as extended service encounters between foresight practitioners, sponsors, and other stakeholders. The implications of this perspective for evaluating the outcomes of such programmes are to be explored.Design/methodology/approachThe range of activities comprising foresight is reviewed, along with the various objectives that may underpin these activities. The more substantial foresight programmes are seen in terms of a series of steps, in each of which various partners can be involved in generating service outcomes and later steps of the process. The arguments are illustrated with insights drawn from various cases.FindingsA foresight programme is likely to feed into more than one policy process, so that the foresight activities can be linked to various stages of the policy cycles, as well as engaging participants with different degrees of influence on the policies in question. The outcomes of the foresight activity are also heavily shaped by the degree of involvement of various stakeholders, not least the sponsoring agency and any other groups it seeks to mobilise. Seeing foresight as a service activity brings to the fore the notion of co‐production, and the importance of the design of the service encounters involved.Research limitations/implicationsThe task of evaluating foresight is a challenging one, and comparison of foresight activities needs to bear in mind the different scale, scope, and ambitions of different programmes. Simple static comparison of formal inputs and outputs will miss much of the value and value‐added of the activity.Practical implicationsA dynamic approach to evaluation stresses the learning of lessons about the roles of multiple stakeholders – and the responsibilities of sponsors as well as practitioners.Originality/valueForesight programmes are frequently commissioned, and often have significant influence on decision‐making. Attempts to systematically evaluate these efforts have begun, and this essay stresses the need to be aware of the complex interactive nature of foresight, highlighted by viewing it in service terms.

Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight Programmes

This report, prepared for the ForSociety ERANET project, addresses a need to develop a common language and approach in comparing national foresight programmes. An appropriate terminology and methodology is particularly important, as foresight activities in various countries are characterised by a high level of diversity of structures, as well as varying levels of maturity, intensity, and efforts. This is often based on a diversity of perception and understanding of the role of foresight, linked to differing country context and approach. A meaningful comparison of foresight depends on a deeper understanding of the background to the evolution of foresight in each country and the template developed in this report is aimed at providing this level of detail. The report is organised in three parts: (1) the underlying concepts and framework for benchmarking – presenting (a) an overview of evolutionary economics of innovation, as a theoretical background, (b) a taxonomy of foresight programmes, as well as (c) the concept of intelligent benchmarking –; (2) a template for individual programme descriptions, together with (3) a glossary of key terms. The report claims that mechanistic or naive benchmarking is likely to produce misleading policy conclusions. Intelligent benchmarking – learning by comparison, taking into account the broader context – is a more promising way forward. There is no ‘one best way’, and thus actual foresight programmes should not be benchmarked against an ‘ideal’, ‘optimal’ or ‘best practice’ design of foresight. They can be benchmarked against 3-4 ‘ideal types’ of future-oriented programmes, and this can lead to meaningful methodological and policy lessons.

The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives

Foresight has evolved as a distinct prospective analytical tool: it considers alternative futures of various S&T fields or socio-economic systems by bringing together the perspectives of various stakeholder groups, and thus assists the decision-making processes at different levels. However, in order to avoid hypes — and subsequent disappointments — about what foresight can deliver, the potential contributions to decision-making processes by foresight should be clearly understood. The article puts foresight into this broader context of policy-making processes, with a particular emphasis on innovation policy. It describes the evolution of different policy rationales since the 1960s, develops a framework to classify the impacts of various types of prospective analyses, and reviews the evaluation results of several national foresight programmes by using this framework. On that basis, future directions of how foresight might evolve are considered to spur discussions.

Reducing the democratic deficit in institutional foresight programmes: A case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology

The democratic deficit (the ‘deficit’ hereafter) in present institutional Foresight (‘Foresight’ hereafter) lies in its participation regime. In this paper practical ways to reduce the deficit are proposed that ought to increase the responsiveness of Foresight programmes to society's values, concerns and expectations. The existence of the deficit is examined placing ever more emphasis on the need for the active participation by a balanced but wide spread of stakeholders who will help to shape the future of society through the practical scheme proposed. The notions of ‘situations’ and Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) are combined into a metaphor to suggest how the deficit in Foresight might be reduced. The purpose is to ensure, as far as that is possible, that the process of participation is genuine, inclusive and effective: practical steps toward this are suggested. The subjective nature of the metaphors assists the interpretation of these suggestions. The notion of ‘situations’ and Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) represents an attempt to provide a metaphorical foundation for inclusive Foresight. At their core, ‘situations’ and CSH consider that problem definitions, proposals for improvement, and evaluations of outcomes depend on prior judgements about the relevant system. The resulting framework that emerges from CSH is a set of boundary concepts usable as a checklist of critical boundary questions. The checklist may be grouped under four issues relating to sources of: (i) motivation, (ii) power, (iii) knowledge, and (iv) legitimization. The current paper discusses the application of the ‘situation’ cum CSH metaphor for the case of nano-science, nano-technology and nano-artifacts that are being widely adopted in areas such as materials, ICTs, and medicine. As a result of the growing interest for nano-field, nano-artifacts are now reaching the consumer markets within a large number of branches. On the other hand there is a growing scepticism about the nano-field regarding the environmental and health risks of nano-artifacts along with the ethical and legal issues arising as a result of the widespread use of these products. A number of processes have been designed and implemented concerning the legal, ethical and social impacts of nano-sciences, -technologies, and -artifacts. The paper suggests that inclusive Foresight, reinforced with the principles of CSH, can be of use in the nano-field providing wider stakeholder representation during the research and development processes. Such processes will contribute to the development of more socially and environmentally responsive nano-artifacts.

Universities and the emerging new players: building futures for higher education

Universities are long-established organisations, and although they have reinvented themselves several times, major reforms are needed again, underpinned by systematic prospective analyses. A novel method is needed to take into account the wide-ranging and complex factors, shaping the future of the higher education system. ‘Futures’ should be devised in a multi-level structure as the bulk of trends and driving forces are international in their nature and universities are embedded in broader socio-economic systems. This new approach is demonstrated here by devising ‘cascading’ futures for the European Union (EU), the European Research and Innovation Area (ERIA) and universities. Several advantages can be expected from this type of prospective analysis: (i) the potential changes of these broader settings, in which universities operate, as well as their impacts on higher education can be explored; (ii) the huge diversity of higher education systems and individual universities can be reflected; and (iii) the likely impacts of different policy options can also be explored. It is also proposed to select foresight programmes from the ‘prospective toolkit’, given their specific features and benefits compared to other prospective methods.

Interpreting foresight process impacts: Steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of ‘foresight systems’

Foresight programmes are usually evaluated in terms of the achievement of initial objectives and the scale and nature of direct, anticipated impacts, notwithstanding the difficulty of measuring such impacts. However, indirect and/or unanticipated impacts that fall outside the scope of specific programme goals and objectives have also been reported. These are mainly impacts associated with the foresight process itself, i.e. with the way in which foresight exercises are designed and implemented. These impacts typically fall in areas such as: • Knowledge creation, diffusion and absorption; • Social capital and networking; • The evolution of strategies to cope with or escape from the negative consequences of a ‘risk society’. The diversity of the above areas suggests that foresight process impacts should be interpreted through the lenses of epistemology, sociology, political science, management science and organisational theory. In parallel, given that developments in the above spheres are strongly associated with the evolution of ‘participatory knowledge societies’, this paper presents an interpretation of foresight process impacts within a conceptual framework that attempts to characterise such societies. Additionally, such an interpretation is conceived as a step towards the development of a conceptual framework aimed at understanding the dynamics of ‘foresight systems’. This framework should be capable of explaining the interdependencies and inter-relationships between system elements such as actors, processes, inputs, outputs and impacts, as well as the interaction of the system with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment. The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises that assesses the degree to which they promote the development of ’participatory knowledge societies’. The paper is based primarily on research carried out during the preparation of a PhD thesis entitled “Assessing the contribution of Foresight to a more participatory knowledge society”. The research mainly involved a literature review of available documentation on past and present foresight programmes and their results.

National foresight in science and technology strategy development

The paper is concerned with the national foresight exercises in Thailand to devise the key science and technology (S&T) strategies. The Thai government, through the National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA), has used the foresight processes to influence policy making and create national foresight programmes. The foresight exercise, covering the period from 2000 to 2020, aims to examine the potential of the Thai industry and investigate a set of development policies necessary to make the Thai industry successful by the year 2020. Three rounds of strategic conferences comprising 2677 people were set up to create a vision for the future of the industry. The results of the foresight process provide a comprehensive overview of the trends of the Thai industry. The study contributes towards the formulation of feasible technological and industrial policies, which would enhance the country's ability to improve the competitive position for tomorrow.

Evaluation of national foresight activities: Assessing rationale, process and impact

The paper addresses the question of what constitutes an appropriate evaluation strategy for national foresight activities in different situations. The variety of rationales for foresight is explored, ranging from a desire to set priorities through to participation-oriented goals and building new networks around common visions and strategies. A generational model of foresight is used to show the evolution of key evaluation issues. The generic motivations for evaluation of accountability, justification and learning are discussed in the context of foresight. Evaluation grounded in the concept of behavioural additionality and the systems failure rationale is shown to be more suited as a rationale for foresight as public policy. Assessing the effects of foresight requires an understanding that it is only one of several influences on public policy. To be effective it needs to be tuned into the strategic behaviour and cycles of policy and economic actors. Cases are presented of evaluation of foresight programmes in the United Kingdom, Germany and Hungary. It is concluded that there is no “one-size-fits-all” evaluation approach and that the method selected is conditioned by motivation, timing and the level of aggregation. Foresight cannot be fully evaluated independently from its context. Foresight is being strengthened by the emergence of rigorous and systematic knowledge to assist learning and improvement.

Inclusive foresight

PurposeMost public foresight programmes in the 1990s limited participation to technological experts in the identified fields. However, almost all the programmes had an implied social dimension and several concluded that more inclusive participation was needed in future programmes. The paper aims to discuss how inclusiveness might be achieved.Design/methodology/approachAt first sight extending participation seems eminently possible. Inclusiveness is a matter of definition and process that has been encountered in other foresight style activities where the opinions of the polity need to be taken into account. Definitions and processes form the core of our approach, using ideas from human behaviour, sustainability and corporate governance.FindingsLearning how to extend participation has started through the German FUTUR programme and the creation of some online discussion forums. Some other programmes in The Netherlands (1996) and the UK (from 1998 onwards) have attempted to become more inclusive, with varying degrees of success.Research limitations/implicationsThe discussion is restricted to exploring some general principles related to making foresight programmes more inclusive. Some of the detail has been worked out but is not complete enough to be discussed.Practical implicationsInclusiveness introduces specific management and process needs, if foresight programmes are to be extended into the social sphere without their becoming chaotic. The principles discussed imply a need for a change in mind‐set for foresight sponsors and practitioners.Originality/valueNone of these ideas have been used in practice and to that extent are original.

Experts and foresight: review and experience

Experts and their opinions are widely sought, but there are serious questions to be asked about both experts and their opinions. Governments, through their advisory committees, companies and adversarial groups eagerly seek expert opinion with which to influence the formulation of policy and regulations of all kinds. In a different sphere, expert opinion is also a powerful feature of many complex court cases where many expert witnesses find themselves in circumstances beyond their normal experience and where their evidence may be manipulated in ways they never anticipated. Here, the nature of expert opinion and its elicitation are first surveyed, necessarily in brief and subsequently the methods and methodological issues of elicitation are discussed, all in relation to foresight activity. Finally, the implications for the practice of foresight, particularly in their manifestation in public foresight programmes, are discussed.

Collaborative technology roadmapping: network development and research prioritisation

The technology roadmapping technique is used widely in industry to support strategic technology planning. Roadmaps can take various forms, but the most flexible and generic type comprises a multi-layered time-based chart that links technology and product developments to market needs. In recent years, the approach has been used in sector-level foresight programmes, particularly in North America. This paper provides a brief overview of the technology roadmapping approach, and describes the use of a process ("T-Plan") for supporting the rapid initiation of the technique in organisations. The application of the method is illustrated by means of an automotive sector-level case study (the UK Foresight Vehicle technology roadmapping initiative), which highlights issues associated with customisation of the roadmapping approach, and the related communication and network development benefits.

Az innováció kutatások megjelenése a regionális elemzésekben – az innováció regionális perspektívában

A regionális elemzésekben világszerte egyre nagyobb hangsúlyt kapó innovációs vizsgálatok rendszerezésére vállalkozó tanulmányban áttekintésre kerülnek az innováció-orientált politika sajátosságai, a hazai innovációs környezet és a térszerkezet összefüggéseit kereső vizsgálatok, valamint hangsúlyosan a kilencvenes években végzett vállalati innováció kutatások fontosabb megállapításai. A területfejlesztés, illetve a regionális technológia-politika beavatkozási lehetőségei között számon tartott regionális innovációs stratégiák tapasztalatainak tézisszerű összegzésével, majd a regionális technológiai előretekintési programokra való utalással zárul a tanulmány.

Foresight as a core competence

Foresight is an elusive and oft-misunderstood term. Lacking a widely accepted definition, it is unclear when and whether it refers to a process, to a human attribute or competence, or to a national Foresight programme. This paper argues that foresight has developed largely in isolation to the extensive literature on business strategy. By relating foresight to this literature it can be put into a context with a far larger pool of existing knowledge. This paper relates foresight specifically to the core competence view of strategy. The resultant connections have implications for the process and competence concepts of foresight, national Foresight programmes and the core competence view.