Future Foresight Research Articles

Nurse Managers' Perception about Future Foresight Tools and Innovation Skills

Nurse Managers' Perception about Future Foresight Tools and Innovation Skills

Re-Designing Social Worker Role During World Inflation Spillovers

Inflation affects vulnerable groups more, governments and NGOs used to support them via social welfare system, where social workers did case studies and ensured fairness. However, with inflation; governments fail to keep up with it, the role of social workers will be more essential and complex. More people will need social workers to be proactive, where there is more need for services and social protection. Methodology is to re-evaluate the criteria of social worker's role to foresight demands and recommend an international governing guidance. Implication shows the need for re-evaluating to help stabilise families during inflation. A framework is proposed to utilise welfare to support vulnerable groups and social workers' roles, preparing them for crises such as inflation and having future foresight in social problems.

Present and Future of Artificial Intelligence: A Case Study on Prospective Teachers

This study investigates prospective teachers' perspectives on the present status of artificial intelligence (AI) and their predictions regarding its future development. The study utilized a case study approach to select a group of 64 prospective teachers from the faculty of education at a state university in Türkiye. The study participants comprised 34 female and 30 male prospective teachers. The researchers employed a purposive sampling technique, specifically the criterion sampling approach, to select the prospective teachers included in the study. The researchers collected data for the study using the "AI Perception Interview Form" and the "AI Future Foresight Determination Form," and then analyzed the data using descriptive and content analysis techniques. The results showed that prospective teachers obtained information about AI primarily from social media, internet/news websites, and applications. Analyzing the definitions and explanations provided by the prospective teachers revealed that they particularly emphasized the uploading of human intelligence to computer systems, the acquisition of human-like abilities by machines, and the ability of AI to learn independently. Additionally, prospective teachers identified health, education, accounting, and finance as domains with significant potential for the advancement of AI. In education, the initial applications prospective teachers thought AI could be used for included determining students' mental states, assessing student levels, and providing personalized content. The data obtained from the study indicate that prospective teachers produced both utopian and dystopian content regarding the future of AI. This production of varied content reveals that prospective teachers have diverse perspectives on the future of AI.

Discounting Water for Optimal Carbon Gain as a Basis of Stomatal Closure

AbstractThe exchange of carbon dioxide and water vapor between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is regulated by stomata (small pores in the leaves of plants). Unsurprisingly, environmental factors controlling the opening and closure of stomata has been sought as early as 1800. One approach, popularized in the early 1970s, is a stomatal optimization framework. This framework is based on the hypothesis that plants optimize carbon gain subject to water loss or water availability constraints. This constraint optimization problem was solved in various forms assuming instantaneous adjustments of stomatal aperture to maximize a reward function with no future foresight or legacy effects. Holtzman et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023av001113) offers a novel approach that can diagnose the effective timescale over which the reward function maximization must be time‐integrated. The developed method thus optimizes an integrated carbon gain function but adjusted by a discount factor subject to water availability in the root zone. The discount factor considers how the plant values carbon gain to save water and its timescale can be inferred from observations because the model is analytically tractable. The results suggest that the most important climate factor that determines this discount timescale is multi‐annual mean of the longest dry period during the growing season. The findings highlight how local climate traits influence the spatial variation in ecosystem‐level water use strategies. This sets the stage for expanding such a framework to cases where multiple constraints act in concert while operating at distinct time scales.

Discovering weak signals of emerging topics with a triple-dimensional framework

In the rapidly evolving landscape of innovation, the early identification of emerging topics is crucial across diverse research domains. This study views weak signals as the preliminary stage of emerging topics and constructs an innovative weak signal triple-dimensional analytical framework to discern nascent emerging topics. The framework uses triads to represent signals by constructing keyword citation networks and establish a collection of novel signals through network topology analysis. Weak signals are subsequently identified by examining the visibility, diffusion and social influence of signals with time-weighted attributes. An altmetrics indicator is employed to formally measure the social influence of weak signals from the perspective of public perception. We apply the proposed framework to the field of gene editing, and the outcomes of literature analysis and dynamic validation substantiate the efficacy of our approach. Compared to related methods, our framework demonstrates a more nuanced ability to distinguish between various signals, identifying more weak signals and research topics with increased potential for social impact. This research provides valuable insights for strategic decision-making, innovation management, and future foresight.

Scientific research priorities in the humanities and social sciences and Islamic studies from theory to practice between reality and future foresight

Scientific research in the field of humanities and social sciences and Islamic studies is considered one of the most important research fields that should be supported and encouraged, due to its pioneering and distinguished role in the progress and development of societies, and the achievement of human development and hence sustainable development. Therefore, activating the research process of these sciences has become a scientific, social and civilizational necessity, giving priority to them, and not keeping their topics and research concerns in place, but rather activating them through studies from theory to practice and between reality and future foresight. The success of these sciences and studies and the field of their application requires defining their cultural and developmental importance and placing them in the required cognitive, cultural and civilizational context and the field of sustainable development and touching an evolving reality. The study followed the descriptive approach by examining the previous studies that supported the study Keywords: scientific research priorities - humanities and social sciences and Islamic studies, foreseeing the future - scientific outputs.

Fabrication of new-generation healthy triacylglycerol enriched in medium chain fatty acid – A review

With an increase in the research advancements in the area of functional oil, the tailor-made lipids (TML) enriched in medium-chain fatty acids have attracted special attention owing to health-friendly traits. Among these sn-1/3 M: sn-2 L and sn-1/3 M: sn-2 M TML have become healthier choices for the consumers across globe. The distinct metabolism pattern of medium-chain fatty acid present in sn-1/3 M: sn-2 L and sn-1/3 M: sn-2 M TML, offers numerous physiological and functional benefits in managing certain non-communicable diseases. These functional oils are fabricated by modifying conventional lipids using chemical or enzymatic pathways by acidolysis/interesterification reaction. The numerous health benefits of sn-1/3 M: sn-2 L and sn-1/3 M: sn-2 M TML have increased their application in the food, pharmaceutical, and nutraceutical sectors. The goal of this review is to provide a piece of concise information on sn-1/3 M: sn-2 L and sn-1/3 M: sn-2 M TML skeleton, routes followed for their synthesis, intensification approaches to improve their yield (%) and quality, their recent application in the food system and future foresight to enhance their applicability in different food matrices.

Nurse Managers' Perception for Future Foresight in Nursing

Nurse Managers' Perception for Future Foresight in Nursing

Presenting the Model of the Impact of University Governance with the Approach of the Development of Fourth Generation Universities on Future Foresight in Babol Universities

Presenting the Model of the Impact of University Governance with the Approach of the Development of Fourth Generation Universities on Future Foresight in Babol Universities

The Role of Future Foresight in Achieving Strategic Leadership for Educational Institutions in the Sultanate of Oman

The Role of Future Foresight in Achieving Strategic Leadership for Educational Institutions in the Sultanate of Oman

Role of open innovation and strategy on SMEs in Dubai: review and theoretical framework

PurposeThis study aims to examine and discuss the importance and benefits of Open Innovation (OI), Transformational Leadership (TL), Innovation Strategy (IS), Creative Climate (CC), Radical Innovation (RI) and Sustainable Competitive Advantage (SCA) for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Dubai. This work also examines the mediating impact of future foresight drivers (FFD) on SMEs' SCA. The study provides a theoretical framework for enhancing SMEs' organizational performance and highlights the need for future empirical research.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses a systematic literature review (SLR) approach and a bibliometric analysis approach to collect, examine and analyze data from previous research on OI, TL, IS, CC, RI and SCA. This work evaluated 110 publications from separate scholarly databases, Scopus and Web of Science (WoS).FindingsThe study finds a positive relationship between OI, TL, IS, CC, RI and SCA and that future empirical research is needed. While there is limited information on the impact of these concepts on SMEs in the Middle East and especially in Dubai, the study presents new concepts to be debated. The study provides a vital tool for businesses to improve their performance by adopting OI, TL and IS and analyzing their present competitive status to develop new strategies and build competitiveness.Originality/valueThe originality of this study lies in its contribution to understanding the relationships among OI, TL, IS, CC and RI and their impact on SMEs' SCA in Dubai. By emphasizing the importance of OI, TL and IS in improving SMEs' performance and competitiveness, this study provides valuable insights for SME managers seeking to enhance their organizations' sustainability and long-term success. The review also identifies a gap in the literature regarding the impact of these concepts on SMEs in the Middle East, emphasizing the need for further research in this area.

The Future Dreams of Ireland’s Youth: Possibilities for Rural Regeneration and Generational Renewal

The renewal of younger generations in farming and rural areas is a key European policy concern and rural sustainability issue. European literature discusses what drives young people from rural areas while identifying diverse and often interlinked factors as responsible. This study uses a future foresight approach to understand what would facilitate young people to remain in or return to rural areas. Targeting youth aged 18 to 30 and examining their personal dream futures in 2035, this paper presents the ideal lifestyle and livelihoods young people envision for themselves in rural Ireland. However, future approaches to alleviate rural decline, support regeneration, and the wider issue of generational renewal must consider the wider impact on rural sustainability. Generational renewal is just one challenging part of rural decline, including wider social, environmental, economic, and cultural issues. Driven by this wider concern, this paper also explores the implications of the youth’s future dreams for rural regeneration and generational renewal from a broad rural resilience perspective. The results identify a range of issues. However, rural jobs emerge as a key issue, and the paper outlines how policy attention is particularly needed here for improved resilient rural regeneration and generational renewal.

SCENARIO STYLE AND ITS IMPORTANCE IN FORESEEING THE FUTURE FOR STUDIES AND RESEARCH

This scientific paper aimed to monitor the beginnings of future studies, and to reveal what they are and what the method of scenarios is. It also aimed to monitor the importance of scenarios in foreseeing the future, and revealing their reality in Arabic studies and research. By extrapolating some of the literature, and deducing experts’ trends and opinions, the most prominent results showed the importance of future studies, and showed the limited Arab interest in using the scenarios method. This indicates the lack of Arab (future) studies and research, compared to Western prospective studies. The most prominent recommendations: educational institutions should seek to integrate the culture of future in the school curricula; To enable future generations to create a future full of positives in all areas of life, as it is said: “Make your future before others make it for you.” Key words: Scenario, Future Foresight, Future Studies

Design roadmapping: Guidebook for future foresight techniques

Design roadmapping: Guidebook for future foresight techniques

A Framework to Assess the Resilience of Energy Systems Based on Quantitative Indicators

The “Clean Energy for all Europeans” package highlights the need to create a resilient critical energy infrastructure in the European Union. Resilience is an emerging term to describe the energy system’s ability to withstand shocks caused by natural hazards, technical accidents, or intentional threats. In this paper, a framework to assess the resilience of energy systems using quantitative indicators is presented. Two main groups of resilience indicators are proposed that depend on what is being measured within the energy system: capacity (attribute-based) indicators or performance in the presence of disruption (performance-based) indicators. This study concentrates on the first resilience phase, when the energy system has to absorb the impact of the shock. The approach considers various disruptions (both internal and external) as triggering events. There is a particular focus on future shocks affecting the prospective energy system, which will have changed with respect to the current one. The future foresight capabilities and potential of the selected resilience indicators are demonstrated using calculations for the Lithuanian energy system. The results revealed that the most important factors that impact energy system resilience are a rich electricity production mix and the diversification of both supply and production in the prospective energy system.

Foresight of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Opportunities for a Better World: التبصر (واستشراف المستقبل) فرص لعالم أفضل مع جائحة فيروس كورونا (كوفيد 19)

Throughout history, epidemics gave humans many challenges, but yet also brought with it many visible and hidden opportunities. The Coronavirus (COVID-19) is no except, and in this paper, we foresight the opportunities for a better world that this deadly crisis brings to us. We review different opportunities that this virus and similar recent incidents, like SARS, brought to our life. Then, we pause to visualise through rethinking, redefining and reframing the hidden opportunities inside the (COVID-19) and similar coming problems and challenges. This "think outside of the box" paper create new pathways toward more inspiring economies that would address the key elements we started to miss in our development journey. Integrating future foresight into such problem-solving attempts could create for us more future-informed generations that take participatory actions towards humans’ complex challenges with high availability and preparedness. The paper concludes with a proposed framework to exploit the opportunities of such a complex crisis while mitigating its risks. Further studies are highly recommended if we are to see solutions that could save humanity from the coming crisis.

Future Foresight: Effect of VUCA leadership Educational Program on Nurse Manager's Readiness for Change

Future Foresight: Effect of VUCA leadership Educational Program on Nurse Manager's Readiness for Change

Science Fiction Cinema in Science Education and the Development of Future Thinking Visions....Aspirations

Abstract; T his paper deals with the concept of science fiction cinema, where science fiction is an anticipation of what can happen in the future in light of scientific explanations of natural phenomena. Science fiction films have global mass popularity due to their special effects, and they are among the important methods for science education because of their development The learners’ ability to have creative and critical thinking skills, and to increase their ability to learn scientific concepts in an interesting manner. It also helps them predict future scientific discoveries and inventions, and contributes to developing the dimensions of future thinking, which is one of the types of thinking related to future foresight. Despite the importance of science fiction films, there are shortcomings in using them to teach science. The current paper recommended the necessity of enriching science curriculum with science fiction literature, and including science fiction cinema as one of the methods of teaching science within the teaching methods curriculum of teacher preparation programs at the College of Education.

The Impact of Assuming Perfect Foresight in Hydroeconomic Analysis of Yellow River Diversions to the Hai River Basin, China: A Framework Combining Linear Programming and Model Predictive Control

This study analyses the impact of assuming perfect foresight of future agro-hydrological events in hydroeconomic analysis of water infrastructure projects. The impact is evaluated based on the estimated monetary benefits of a proposed water infrastructure investment diverting Yellow River water to the Hai River basin in China, resulting in supply augmentation and improved water quality. The impact of foresight is quantified as the change in project benefits, evaluated with different assumed lengths of future foresight compared to a perfect foresight benchmark. A hydroeconomic optimization model formulated as a deterministic Linear Program, LP, is optimized to represent the perfect foresight benchmark. Imperfect foresight is modeled by wrapping the hydroeoconomic optimization model in a Model Predictive Control, MCP, framework. Using this LP-MPC framework, different lengths of foresight can be modeled by continuous re-optimizations with updated forecasts over a planning horizon. The framework is applied to the water-scarce and polluted Hai River basin in China, which is suffering from groundwater overdraft and is dominated by agricultural irrigation demands. The hydroeconomic optimization model describes the nine largest reservoirs in conjunctive use with the major groundwater aquifers. The water infrastructure project, allowing transfers of Yellow River water to the plain area of the Hai River basin, is evaluated under long-term sustainable groundwater abstraction constraints, and joint water allocation and water quality management. The value of foresight in agricultural water allocations is represented, using a model that links yield response to water allocations, accounting for delayed yields in agricultural irrigation. Estimated benefits of the proposed project evaluated with decreasing lengths of foresight and compared to the perfect foresight benchmark show that an assumption of perfect foresight underestimates the actual benefits of the water infrastructure investment in the irrigation intensive Hai River basin. This study demonstrates that it is important to evaluate the impact of assuming perfect foresight in any hydroeconomic analysis, to avoid misleading conclusions regarding the costs and benefits of planned projects.

A strategy tripod perspective on merger effectiveness in the higher education industry: the mediating role of future foresight

PurposeThe purpose of the study is to investigate the role of the strategy tripod premises, mediated by future foresight and its effect on merger effectiveness in the higher education industry.Design/methodology/approachA quantitative survey method was implemented, with the data provided by senior managers of 14 universities that went through a merger from the years 2013–2016. The proposed model was tested using partial least squares (PLS) of structural equation modeling (SEM).FindingsThe results indicate that government support, competitive intensity and knowledge creation capability relate positivity to merger effectiveness, and these relationships are mediated by future foresight competence.Originality/valueThe study provides a better understanding of merger effectiveness in the higher education industry by identifying the role of future foresight competence in the application of strategy tripod and its contribution on merger effectiveness. Results indicate that future foresight competence contributes to the merger effectiveness and enables the effective implementation of the strategy tripod dimensions in higher education mergers.