Science Foresight Research Articles

Institutionalizing foresight in science, technology, and innovation in sub‐Saharan Africa

AbstractMotivationForesight is increasingly being institutionalized and used in science, technology and innovation (STI) policy processes around the world. Foresight is a toolbox to help decision‐makers generate intelligence about future scientific and technological advances and to frame long‐term STI policy goals and rationales. Foresight can be used to inform policy to steer research and innovation (R&I) towards attaining sustainable development goals. Yet, foresight is not institutionalized and used in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) at a time when many governments are formulating new STI policies and some of their science granting councils (SGCs) are setting R&I priorities.PurposeThis exploratory study is about challenges and opportunities of institutionalizing STI foresight in SSA. It identifies ways of institutionalizing and using STI foresight.Methods and approachA literature review, bibliometric analysis, interviews, an online survey, and focus group discussions were conducted to identify challenges to, and lessons for, institutionalizing STI foresight in SSA. The literature identified good practices for institutionalizing STI foresight in selected developed countries, to draw lessons for SSA.FindingsWhile academic research on STI foresight and related topics is increasing, there is very limited foresight practice in STI policy processes in SSA. This is mainly owing to low awareness of STI foresight, weak technical capacity, and generally a lack of foresight culture in STI policy‐making in the region.Policy implicationsBuilding capacity within governments and establishing a community of practice in STI foresight may help improve the quality and effectiveness of STI policy in SSA. It may enable institutions such as science granting councils (SGCs) to make informed funding decisions, targeting scarce resources at priority research and innovation. Overall, building STI foresight literacy and skills, as well as establishing designated offices for STI foresight, supported by the knowledge to select and adapt foresight tools, will result in improved STI policy‐making in SSA.

Envisioning the future: a multi-disciplinary approach to human-centered intelligent environments

Humane or humanity-centered intelligent environments (IE) prioritize human users, communities, and societal needs in the system design, service, and operations. However, designing for a genuinely humanity-centric vision poses potential barriers related to the technical frameworks and methods of IEs. This paper introduces a multi-disciplinary innovation research approach grounded in a participatory ForSTI (i.e., Foresight in Science, Technology, and Innovation) methodology. We apply a Horizon scanning exercise in combination with expert interviews and a lead user workshop to develop a future humanity-centric roadmap for IEs that aligns with a coherent understanding of human and societal needs. Multiple technical visions are explored to foresee how ethics, human control, and agency can be preserved in developing future human-centric IEs. Our findings indicate that the “feasible” future vision is propelled forward by technical enchanted determinism, with weak resistance from the public, citizens, and society. The “possible” vision augments humans and the environment through technical advancement. In contrast, the most “desirable” vision is inclusive of all humanity, also the most vulnerable, and can bring forth meaningful human involvement and influence in the technical configurations of IEs. By carefully considering the potential drivers and barriers ahead, we can re-think how to design for the most desirable future vision in developing IEs.

Adaptation planning in France: Inputs from narratives of change in support of a community-led foresight process

In France, integrating adaptation to climate change into planning policies is a prerogative that has recently been delegated to municipalities. There are also various injunctions to engage the local population in this decision-making process. How can municipalities co-construct an adaptive future with their citizens? This article critically describes a community-led foresight process, based on the mapping, analysis and interpretation of narratives of change. Based on empirical results, we explore and discuss the role past, present and future narratives may play in the process of outlining incremental scenarios and how these might enable the identification of pathways and hinge points. The role of design in supporting the process by proposing an innovative foresight workshop is also discussed. We then highlight how these narratives stimulated reflections through an art, design and science foresight experiment.

Science foresight using life-cycle analysis, text mining and clustering: A case study on natural ventilation

Science foresight comprises a range of methods to analyze past, present and expected research trends, and uses this information to predict the future status of different fields of science and technology. With the ability to identify high-potential development directions, science foresight can be a useful tool to support the management and planning of future research activities. Science foresight analysts can choose from a rather large variety of approaches. There is, however, relatively little information about how the various approaches can be applied in an effective way. This paper describes a three-step methodological framework for science foresight on the basis of published research papers, consisting of (i) life-cycle analysis, (ii) text mining and (iii) knowledge gap identification by means of automated clustering. The three steps are connected using the research methodology of the research papers, as identified by text mining. The potential of combining these three steps in one framework is illustrated by analyzing scientific literature on wind catchers; a natural ventilation concept which has received considerable attention from academia, but with quite low application in practice. The knowledge gaps that are identified show that the automated foresight analysis is indeed able to find uncharted research areas. Results from a sensitivity analysis further show the importance of using full-texts for text mining instead of only title, keywords and abstract. The paper concludes with a reflection on the methodological framework, and gives directions for its intended use in future studies.

Food reformulation: the challenges to the food industry

The role of the food industry (retailers, manufacturers and food service) in helping consumers eat healthily and sustainably has been receiving considerable attention in recent years. This paper focuses on the challenges facing the food industry and the role of food reformulation in meeting these challenges, through the lens of a public health nutritionist. Attention has been heightened by the Government's Responsibility Deal, launched in early 2011 by the Department of Health (England), by the UK's engagement with the global food security and food supply sustainability agendas and by the Government Office of Science's Foresight report. The Responsibility Deal's food network has to date focused on reduction of trans fatty acids, salt and calories and out-of-home calorie labelling (in food service settings). New pledges are expected soon on increasing fruit and vegetable intakes. Reformulation is a major feature of the Responsibility Deal's approach, and along with other approaches such as portion control, choice editing and information provision, there is potential to increase the breadth of healthier choices available to the public. With the exception of fruit and vegetables, the emphasis has been almost exclusively on aspects of the diet that are in excess for many of the population (e.g. energy and salt). Evidence of low consumption of some key micronutrients by some groups of the population, particularly adolescents and young adults, often alongside excess energy intake compared with expenditure, is all too often overlooked. This paper summarises the progress made to date, the challenges faced and the opportunities that exist, with particular focus on reformulation. One of the biggest challenges is the relatively poor understanding of how to effect positive and long-term dietary behaviour change. The paper concludes that, in isolation, reformulation is unlikely to provide a complete solution to the challenge of improving eating patterns and nutrient provision, although it is a contributor.

Highly efficient distributed generation and high-capacity energy storage

With the growing amount of decentralized power production the design and operation of the grid has to be reconsidered. New problems include the two-way flow of electricity and maintaining the power balance given the increased amount of uncertain and fluctuating renewable energy sources like wind and solar that deliver electricity to the grid. Solution directions are the development of smart grids, demand side management, virtual power plants and storage of electricity. These are directions that, rightly so, are already attracting a lot of attention and R&D funding. In this paper critical issues are identified and specified. However, we will also explore new solution directions based on an integrative approach as proposed by the Dutch Royal Academy of Science foresight committee on renewable energy conversions. These alternative solutions include flexible coproduction and local production of chemicals and fuel that can also fulfill a storage function.

Improving the productivity and sustainability of terrestrial and aquatic food production systems: future perspectives

SUMMARYTo meet the increasing global demand for food that is predicted over the coming decades it will be necessary to increase productivity and to do this in a way that is sustainable and efficient in its use of resources. Productivity is currently determined by the intrinsic genetic potential of the domestic plants and animals on which mankind is dependent as well as by components of the biophysical environment (temperature, water availability and quality, soil fertility, parasites, pathogens, weeds) from which terrestrial or aquatic food production is derived. Within certain limits, it is possible to manipulate plant and animal genotypes, the production environment, and the inevitable interaction between these factors, to relax constraints on productivity and potential output. Looking to the future, increased scientific understanding will undoubtedly permit this manipulation to be achieved more effectively, thus enabling the scale of production to be elevated predictably while reducing reliance on non-renewable inputs and limiting the use of more forest, grassland, wetland or coastal margin. The present paper introduces a collection of reviews that were commissioned as part of the UK's Government Office of Science Foresight Project on Global Food and Farming Futures which reports early in 2011. The reviews explore opportunities for advances in science and technology to impact in coming decades on the sustainable productivity of terrestrial and aquatic food production systems. Collectively, they describe many of the approaches currently being considered to define, remove or relax the different genetic or environmental constraints limiting sustainable food production. These include: potential impacts of climate change on aquatic systems, the application of biotechnology, genetics and the development of systems to improve livestock, fish and crop production; approaches to the management of parasites and pathogens; weed control in crops; management of soil fertility; approaches to countering problems of water shortage; reducing post-harvest wastage; the role of advanced engineering and the potential for increasing food production in urban environments.

National foresight in science and technology strategy development

The paper is concerned with the national foresight exercises in Thailand to devise the key science and technology (S&T) strategies. The Thai government, through the National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA), has used the foresight processes to influence policy making and create national foresight programmes. The foresight exercise, covering the period from 2000 to 2020, aims to examine the potential of the Thai industry and investigate a set of development policies necessary to make the Thai industry successful by the year 2020. Three rounds of strategic conferences comprising 2677 people were set up to create a vision for the future of the industry. The results of the foresight process provide a comprehensive overview of the trends of the Thai industry. The study contributes towards the formulation of feasible technological and industrial policies, which would enhance the country's ability to improve the competitive position for tomorrow.

Rationalising the future? Foresight in science and technology policy co-ordination

Commentators from diverse fields and backgrounds have argued the present innovation environment is one constituted by unprecedented levels of uncertainty. National Foresight programmes recently have emerged as a means of co-ordinating science and technology policies and responding to a condition of uncertainty and change. Perhaps the most systematic Foresight programme is that of the United Kingdom. This article discusses the response the UK Foresight programme offers to the present and future innovation environments. In doing so, it is argued we should examine how the `need' for the programme is constructed and how that need is defined and shaped in relation to past UK science and technology policies. It is suggested that Foresight presents an ambivalent response to many of the concerns it proposes to address.

Foresight in science and technology

Emerging generic technologies seem set to make a revolutionary impact on the economy and society. However, success in developing such technologies depends upon advances in science. Confronted with increasing global economic competition, policy-makers and scientists are grappling with the problem of how to select the most promising research areas and emerging technologies on which to target resources and, hence, derive the greatest benefits. This paper analyzes the experiences of Japan, the US, the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, New Zealand and the UK in using foresight to help in selecting and exploiting research that is likely to yield longer-term economic and social benefits. It puts forward a model of the foresight process for identifying research areas and technologies of strategic importance, and also analyzes why some foresight exercises have proved more successful than others. It concludes by drawing an analogy between models of innovation and foresight.

Book Reviews

Strategic Management of Human Resources A Portfolio Approach. George S. Odione. Jossey Bass Ltd, 1985. £30.75 Hdbk., D. YEO The Philosophy of Leadership. Christopher Hodgkinson. Basil Blackwell, Publisher, Oxford 1983. pp. 247, £12.50, S. R. EPTON Current Research in Management. Edited by Valerie Hammond. Published by Frances Pinter, London and Dover, 1985, pp. 265, DOUG LOVEDAY Foresight in Science—Picking The Winners. J. Irvine and B. R. Martin. Francis Pinter, London, 1984. £12.50, S. R. POSTLE Capital Investment Selection. Johan G. Wissema. Francis Pinter, London. 1985. £17.50, T. W. McRAE The Environment for Entrepreneurship. Calvin A. Kent. Lexington Books, Gower Publishing Company Limited. 1984. Hardback £22.00. 190 pages, GEORGE HAYWARD R&D, Patents, and Productivity. Edited by Zvi Griliches. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago and London. 1984. Hardback £46.00. 512 pages, GEORGE HAYWARD Innovation and Technology Transfer for the Growing Firm: Text and Cases. Julian Lowe and Nick Crawford, School of Management, University of Bath. Pergamon Press. 1984. Hardback £11.50. 226 pages, GEORGE HAYWARD Aspects of Japanese Commercial Innovation. Rodney Clark. Technical Change Centre, London, 1984., S. A. BERGEN The Marketing of Technology, This is an addition to the IEE Management of Technology Series published by Peter Peregrinus Ltd. 1984. The Series Editor is G. A. Montgomerie, an earnest of informed and workmanlike texts. Price £15 UK, $38 Americas, £19 elsewhere., S. A. BERGEN Improving leadership effectiveness: the leader match concept. Fred E. Fiedler and Martin M. Chemers, 2nd edition. J, Wiley, New York. 1984. £10.60, ROY PAYNE The Trouble with Technology: Explorations in the Process of Technological Change. S. MacDonald, D. McL. Lamberton, T. D. Mandeville, (eds.). 1983. London: Frances Pinter, P. P. SAVIOTTI

The Case of the Disappearing Caveat: A Critique of Irvine and Martin's Methodology

The work of Irvine and Martin (IM) has provided a wealth of statistical data to be taken into account by future policy makers and historians. Those analysts will interpret the data in terms of the significance of what has been counted. This need for careful interpretation was sensitively recognized by IM in the methodological introduction to their paper on progress in radio astronomy (which I will refer to as RA).1 Even then they were to underestimate a fundamental problem, and its difficulties have been magnified as the sensitivity shown in the methodological introduction has been abandoned. The authors have failed to avoid the question: What is research in science for? That is a black hole into which their analysis is irretrievably sucked. First they impute unrealistic goals to science, and then they use indicators which do not indicate levels of achievement of those hypothetical goals. This Response focuses on their recent paper on 'Basic Research in the East and West' (EW).2 The object of that work is to evaluate the scientific outputs of high-energy accelerators in the Eastern bloc compared to those in the United States and Western Europe. But if one is to 'evaluate' science, or indeed anything else, performance must be matched to goals. When these are embedded in three such different cultural systems the issue is particularly salient. The objectives of science are explored by IM themselves in their recent book, Foresight in Science (FS).3 Here it is explained that the conventional differentiation of 'basic research', 'applied research' and 'experimental development' may be useful for statistical purposes, but not for science policy (FS,2). Within 'basic research' one can distinguish in terms of the patron's objectives between 'pure or curiosity oriented research' and 'strategic research' (FS, 4). The

Foresight in Science: Picking the Winners

John Irvine and Ben R Martin 1984 London: Frances Pinter xiv + 166 pp price £12.50 ISBN 0 86187 496 X In the funding of science and technology, the new rule is that selectivity rules. The rising cost of research and development (a rise which is driven by the 'sophistication factor' as well as by common inflation) enforces this directive.