Foreign Portfolio Investment Flows Research Articles

Moderating the Role of Trade Openness on Foreign Portfolio Investment and Economic Growth among East Africa Community Countries

Purpose: This study investigates the impact of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) on economic growth in East Africa using panel data for Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi from 1974-2022. Methodology: The analysis employs a panel vector error correction model to estimate the short and long-run effects of FPI on growth. The study relied on secondary data sources for the period 1974-2022 with an annual frequency, implying 49 years of data. Data on foreign investment variables and macroeconomic control variables were sourced from the World Bank database, National Statistical Bureaus, Central Banks, and Stock Exchanges of the respective countries. Findings: The results indicate that FPI significantly positively impacts economic growth in East Africa. A 1% increase in FPI inflows as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) boosts annual real GDP growth by approximately 10.7% in the long run. The findings are robust to the inclusion of moderating variables like trade openness. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The empirical analysis aimed to validate the Modern Portfolio Theory by examining if greater foreign portfolio investment flows contributed positively to economic growth in the East African region. The results lend support to policy efforts in East Africa to attract greater FPI through capital market reforms, regional integration, and macroeconomic stability. However, further developing financial markets and enhancing absorptive capacity is essential to leverage FPI more effectively for sustainable growth financing.

Chinese monetary policy spillovers on its international portfolio investment flows

This paper examines Chinese monetary policy spillovers on its international portfolio investment flows with a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model. The paper extracts a FPI factor from certain time series to measure monthly foreign portfolio investment flows (FPI). Four Chinese monetary policies are considered: central-bank target policy rate; required reserve ratio; M2; banks' loans. The robust and significant results show that interest rates and banks' loans have significant impact on Chinese international portfolio investment flows, while changes in reserve requirements are not effective. It reveals the increasingly important effects of Chinese monetary policies on its cross-border portfolio investment flows following decades' capital account openness and the reform of interest rate liberalization in China, which indicates that Chinese monetary policy is approaching to a market-based framework.

Investigating the Impact of Foreign Portfolio Investment on Macro-Economic Stability: Empirical Evidence from Egypt

Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) flows have fluctuated significantly in the Egyptian stock market from 1993 to 2020. This high volatility of FPI has drawn attention to assess its possible effects on the Egyptian economy in terms of macroeconomic stability. Therefore, this study aims to empirically investigate the relationship between FPI flows and the inflation rate, which is a critical indicator of macroeconomic stability. For this purpose, the study applies a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to test the short-run dynamics among the variables of interest. Also, it conducts the granger-causality test to check the causalities among variables. Additionally, it applies the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to examine the long-run relationships among these variables. An error correction (ECM) can then be applied by analyzing both the short-run and long-run relationships among the model variables. Empirical results showed that FPI flows increase the inflation rate in Egypt in both the short-run & long run, thereby negatively impacting the macro-economic stability of the Egyptian economy.

Issuer and Investor Proprietary Rights in Eastern and Southern African Frontier Securities Markets—The Role of the Compensation Fund, and the Case for a Regional Compensation Fund

Although empirical evidence shows that investment flows to Sub-Saharan Africa, in form of foreign portfolio investment (FPI), have been on the rise in the past two decades, further evidence shows that actually, investment flows into the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (the COMESA Region) have been very low. Against this backdrop, the need for an efficient Domestic Compensation Fund (DCF) has been highlighted. It is also against the said background that the establishment of a Regional Compensation Fund (RCF)—as a complement of the DCF—has been mooted as a possible way of enhancing the attractiveness regional securities markets as they compete with other markets outside the COMESA Region for those FPI flows to Sub-Saharan Africa. This article examines mainly the Zambian regulatory and institutional framework which regulates the public distribution of securities domestically and across international borders so as establish whether or not it provides adequate incentives and safeguards for prompt and adequate compensation of investors and other market participants who suffer pecuniary loss on account of the default of a licenced person or their employee. The study employs the doctrinal and the non-doctrinal approaches to examining the effectiveness of regulatory rules and institutions. The main finding of the study was that the regulatory and institutional framework for the public distribution of securities does not provide adequate incentives and safeguards for prompt and adequate compensation of investors and other market participants as aforesaid. In particular, the results of the study show that (a) although the regulatory and institutional framework provides for the compensation of the investors and other market participants for their losses, it does not (i) provide for recourse to other bodies for the recovery of unmet or unsatisfied claims or portion of the claim, (ii) fix the time-frame for the determination of compensation claims, (iii) provide for a statutory right of appeal against the determinations or decisions of the DCF, and (iv) a RCF has not been mooted yet or established as a complement to the DCFs in the COMESA Region. The central argument of this article is that liquid and efficient DCFs which are supported by a vibrant RCF are likely to promote market participation and enhance the resilience and fortitude of domestic securities markets in the COMESA Region as they strive to recover from the financial shocks of COVID-19.

Revisiting the impact of foreign portfolio investment on stock market performance during COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty: Evidence from India

This paper re-examines the causality between stock returns and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) flows in the Indian context during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the Covid-19 index constructed by Narayan et al. [19] and the Toda and Yamamoto Granger causality test, the study reveals that bi-directional causality runs from FPI flows to stock returns in the early period of the Covid-19 pandemic. Whereas after the peak of the pandemic, there is a unidirectional causality that runs from FPI flows to stock returns.•Bi-directional causality runs from FPI flows to stock return during the initial period of COVID.•In the second period, unidirectional causality runs from FPI flows to stock returns

The Influence of Exchange Rate and Foreign Capital on the Performance of Inflation Targeting Framework in Indonesia

This study provides empirical evidence on the problem of the trilemma of monetary policy in an open economy, in the context of the effect of exchange rates and foreign capital flows on the performance of the ITF in Indonesia. The method used as an empirical estimate is the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model. This model allows to include restrictions in the empirical estimation of parameters that measure the contemporaneous effect of one variable on another variable according to the structure of the macroeconomic model. Meanwhile, the lagged effects are estimated according to the VAR model. Therefore, the SVAR model is considered more appropriate than the ordinary VAR model because it can measure both the instantaneous effect and the intertemporal effect of the problem under study. The SVAR model uses restrictions that are consistent with the theoretical model in its estimation, regardless of the time-to-time effect of one variable on another. There are 9 variables in the SVAR model, namely: global risk, oil prices, federal funds rate, economic growth, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, credit interest rates, foreign portfolio investment flows, and the rupiah exchange rate. All data used were obtained from several sources, including: Bank Indonesia, Central Statistics Agency, and IMF. Based on the estimation results, the exchange rate and foreign capital flows have a significant effect on inflation and economic growth, thus affecting the performance of the ITF in Indonesia. In particular, there is a relative influence between external factors, particularly global commodity prices, US monetary policy interest rates, and global risks, and domestic factors, particularly economic growth, monetary policy interest rates, and bank interest or credit rates. This study also concludes that in addition to inflation and economic growth considerations, Bank Indonesia also considers exchange rate movements in determining its interest rate policy response.

Capital flows and political conflicts: Evidence from Thailand

How do domestic political conflicts affect capital flows into Thailand? This article advances the current understanding in two ways. First, it adopts a new method for measuring political uncertainty using Thai-language newspapers over the past 20 years. Given that the nature of political conflicts is multi-faceted, these measures cover the various key components of Thai political tensions—both within and outside of parliament. Second, how different types of tensions affect capital flows are examined using a quantile regression framework—allowing an examination of effects upon the overall distribution of capital flows. The empirical results indicate that Thai political conflicts significantly and adversely affect both foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment at the left tails of their distribution. The results also highlight how different types of political conflicts affect capital flows in different ways. For example, uncertainty about a military coup and government measures regarding martial law or emergency decrees have a strong negative effect upon foreign direct investment flows; whereas heightened political protest and news about constitutional reform play a significant role in explaining the risk reversal of foreign portfolio investment flows.

Effect of Foreign Portfolio Investments on the Performance of Financial Sector in Nigeria

The effect of foreign portfolio investments on the performance of financial sector in Nigeria was investigated by means of the ex-post facto design. Data of foreign portfolio investments and contribution of financial sector to gross domestic product was obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and World Bank Development Indicators spanning 1981–2016. Data obtained was analysed using stationarity and unit root, co-integration, ordinary least square estimation, error correction model, and variance decomposition tests. Findings of the study showed that foreign portfolio investments significantly affect the performance of financial sector in Nigeria. On the basis of this, it was recommended the government should strengthen the financial sector, specifically the money and capital markets in order to enhance the flow of foreign portfolio investments into this sector in Nigeria. This is because foreign investors can invest on financial or liquid assets with the hope of a sound future return.

Equity markets and investment patterns: the network perspective

The close-knit networks such as the European Union (EU) influence the internal investment flows. The study explores the connectivity patterns, closeness, and clustering in the neighbourhood. All these characteristics can influence the foreign portfolio investment flows for any country. Analysis of network connectivity and possible correlations patterns with major economic indicators of any member country can explain the patterns of investment decisions. The findings strengthen the belief about strong connectivity between economic stability or deterioration with better or weak connectivity patterns in the investment network as a result of changes in the economic state of affairs, even in strongly knit clusters.

Equity Markets and Investment Patterns: The Network Perspective

The close-knit networks such as the European Union (EU) influence the internal investment flows. The study explores the connectivity patterns, closeness, and clustering in the neighbourhood. All these characteristics can influence the foreign portfolio investment flows for any country. Analysis of network connectivity and possible correlations patterns with major economic indicators of any member country can explain the patterns of investment decisions. The findings strengthen the belief about strong connectivity between economic stability or deterioration with better or weak connectivity patterns in the investment network as a result of changes in the economic state of affairs, even in strongly knit clusters.

Pull and push factors as determinant of foreign portfolio investment in the emerging market

The study investigates the pull and push factors as determinants of foreign portfolio investment flows in the emerging market from 1986 to 2018. The study employs autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound cointegration test and ARDL error correction model (ECM). This work is intended to explore the determinants of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Nigeria and compare the result explored by Kaur and Dhillon (2010) in India. The result revealed that of all the explanatory variables, only MCAP, DMINT, REER, USGS and USINFR have a positive effect on FPI while GDPGR, USGDPGR, USGS and USINFR are significant. From the result of the analysis, the study agrees with Kaur and Dhillon (2010) that the host country gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates and the United States of America (the U.S.A.) inflation rates are among the significant pull and push factors that determine FPI flows in the long run. Based on these findings, the study recommends that economic policymakers in the host country should be more committed to strengthening its economy by boosting its GDP in order to push foreign investors to the economy since the dwindling in economic growth, low rate of return and rise in inflation rates of the developed countries such as the U.S.A. could push foreign investors to the emerging markets.

International Financial US Linkages: Networks Theory and MS-VAR Analyses

This paper aims to examine the impact of the Global Financial Crisis on portfolio investment flows, as well as on stock market activity. Network Theory is used to analyze structural changes of foreign portfolio investment flows (FPI) to a sample of 13 developed countries and 6 emerging Latin American countries. Additionally, using daily data from 2003 to 2015, the dynamics of returns are analyzed to test whether the US market influenced these markets or vice versa; univariate (MS-AR) and multivariate (MS-VAR) regime-switching models are used. The evidence confirms the presence of two different regimes, low volatility and a high volatility for all markets. Findings suggest strengthening local productive and financial institutions in order to anchor FPI. The MS-(V)AR study is limited to stock markets from the Americas and Europe. Previous literature has not applied the innovative and complementary methodologies employed here to analyze financial crisis impacts on FPI flows. We conclude that US financial markets keep a close financial relationship with the most important European and American countries’ stock markets, both by receiving and delivering FPI, and in addition influencing the behavior of stock indexes.

Does Financial Integration Reduce Output Volatility? New Evidence from Cross‐Country Data

We examine the effect of financial integration, measured based on both volume and equity, on output volatility using five‐year non‐overlapping annual average data windows for sixty countries over the 1971–2015 period. We construct aggregate‐ as well as sub‐panels based on income and region. Financial integration reduces output volatility in aggregate and income panel, but not in all regions. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) reduces output volatility in developed countries, but only FDI reduces output volatility in developing countries. Financial regulatory architecture should aim at attracting FDI and macroeconomic and structural reforms to reap the benefits of FPI flows.

Capital flows and exchange rate volatility: experience of emerging economies

In the recent past, there has been a significant rise in the cross-border capital flows and a large chunk of it is being attracted by emerging economies. This poses an important question, whether the capital flows, especially foreign portfolio flows, are responsible for the increasing volatility of exchange rate in emerging economies. This study is an attempt to answer this question. To this end, we estimated a Panel Vector Autoregression model using quarterly data of ten emerging economies for the period 1997Q1–2017Q1. The evidence from impulse response indicates that exchange rate volatility significantly increases in response to the shocks in portfolio capital flows than to shocks in foreign direct inflows. The forecast error variance decomposition also suggests that shocks to foreign portfolio investment flows exert significant impact on the exchange rate volatility. The foreign portfolio flows are responsible for more than 7% of the variations in exchange rate volatility, while current account balance, stock prices and interest rate together explain only around 4% of the variations in exchange rate volatility.

Foreign Portfolio Investment Flows and Exchange Rate: Evidence in Indonesia

ABSTRACTUsing unique daily foreign transactions data in both stock and bond markets, we investigate the daily dynamics of the IDR/USD exchange rate and foreign portfolio investment flows. Based on an unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) model, we find feedback relations between capital market net foreign inflows (NFI) and IDR/USD returns. Further investigation by decomposing capital market NFI into bond market NFI and stock market NFI reveals that only bond market NFI has feedback relations with IDR/USD returns. Meanwhile, we find only a unidirectional relation in the stock market, where stock market NFI does not Granger cause IDR/USD returns, but IDR/USD returns lead stock market NFI. The results suggest that foreign investors tend to rebalance their international portfolio and chase higher returns in the bond market. Additionally, we learn that bond market NFI leads stock market NFI, which means that foreign investments flow to (from) the bond market before they flow to (from) the stock market. Further analysis utilizing dynamic conditional correlation in the bond market confirms the bidirectional relations between NFI and IDR/USD returns. Hence, foreign participation in the bond market appears to yield more impact on the exchange rate than its participation in the stock market.

FDI and FPI Determinants in Developing African Countries

We examine drivers of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in nine selected African economies, during the period 1980 to 2014, with particular interest in the role of financial market development. We set out to explore the drivers of FDI and FPI in selected African countries, respectively. We employ the dynamic GMM methodology to assess the motivators of inward foreign flows. The results show that FDI inflows are generally dependent on past inflows of FDI, low inflation, infrastructural development, and real GDP growth rate; while stock market capitalisation, commercial bank assets gauged against commercial and central bank assets as well as domestic credit to the private sector by banks intermediate for financial market development. On the other hand, we find that FPI inflows are attracted to foreign destinations due to previous FPI inflows, the real exchange rate, inflation rates and the presence of developed infrastructure. Further, developed financial markets, as proxied by stock market capitalisation, were found to significantly and positively influence inward FPI flows, while a closed financial account and low interest rate discouraged FPI. The significant contribution of this paper is that its findings empirically confirm FDI and FPI theory, as postulated in Dunning’s eclectic paradigm insofar as the main “location” variables that enhance host country attractiveness are concerned, specifically in the African context. In light of these findings, we recommend that policy makers strengthen their domestic markets, complemented by appropriate regulations and institutions to attract foreign investment flows, while reducing their dependency on international aid and loans.

FDI and FPI Determinants in Developing African Countries

We examine drivers of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in nine selected African economies, during the period 1980 to 2014, with particular interest in the role of financial market development. We set out to explore the drivers of FDI and FPI in selected African countries, respectively. We employ the dynamic GMM methodology to assess the motivators of inward foreign flows. The results show that FDI inflows are generally dependent on past inflows of FDI, low inflation, infrastructural development, and real GDP growth rate; while stock market capitalisation, commercial bank assets gauged against commercial and central bank assets as well as domestic credit to the private sector by banks intermediate for financial market development. On the other hand, we find that FPI inflows are attracted to foreign destinations due to previous FPI inflows, the real exchange rate, inflation rates and the presence of developed infrastructure. Further, developed financial markets, as proxied by stock market capitalisation, were found to significantly and positively influence inward FPI flows, while a closed financial account and low interest rate discouraged FPI. The significant contribution of this paper is that its findings empirically confirm FDI and FPI theory, as postulated in Dunning’s eclectic paradigm insofar as the main “location” variables that enhance host country attractiveness are concerned, specifically in the African context. In light of these findings, we recommend that policy makers strengthen their domestic markets, complemented by appropriate regulations and institutions to attract foreign investment flows, while reducing their dependency on international aid and loans.

A comparison of the effect of foreign portfolio equity on stock returns of listed banking and non- banking institutions in Kenya

Uncertainties in the flow of foreign portfolio investments (FPI) result in unpredictable behaviour of stock returns in Kenya’s economy and also at the firm level. The net effect of this is the possibility of financial loss suffered by the banking and non-banking institutions. The objective of the study was to compare the effects of foreign portfolio equity on stock returns of listed banking and non- banking institutions in Kenya. The study used purposive sampling technique and concentrated on 14 banking and non-banking institutions listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Secondary data was obtained from Central bank of Kenya, Nairobi securities exchange and capital markets authority for the period January 2008 to December 2014. The study used causal research design, and adopted a panel data regression using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method where the data included time series and cross-sectional data that was pooled into a panel data set and estimated using panel data regression. Results from panel estimation showed that exchange rate risk had a significant negative coefficient of -0.8371 with a P- value of 0.0020 for banking institution and negative coefficient of -0.6023 with a significant P- Value of 0.0673 for non-banking institutions. The results are statistically significant at one percent level of significance and five percent level of significance for banking and non-banking institutions respectively. Inflation had significant negative coefficient of -1.7550 with a P- value of 0.0210 in relation to stock returns for banking institutions and an insignificant negative coefficient of -0.6875 with a P- value of 0.4569 for non-banking institutions. The results indicate that the stock returns of banking institutions are affected by inflation while inflation has no effect on non-banking stock returns. The study recommended that policies that would attract foreign portfolio investment should be pursued in order to enhance stock returns. Key words: Foreign portfolio equity, banking institutions, non-banking institutions, stock returns, Nairobi securities exchange.

The effect of foreign portfolio equity and exchange rate risk on stock returns of commercial banks in Kenya

Reversals of foreign portfolio equity due to a shift in investor risk appetite may have a drastic impact on the value of shares of commercial banks hence the effect on stock returns. Uncertainties in the flow of foreign portfolio investments (FPI) result in unpredictable behaviour of stock returns in Kenya’s economy and also at the firm level. The objective of this study was to find out the effect of foreign portfolio equity and exchange rate risk on stock returns of listed commercial banks in Kenya. The target population of the study was 11 commercial banks listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. The study used purposive sampling technique and concentrated on 10 commercial banks. This study used a causal research design and adopted a panel data regression using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method where the data included time series and cross-sectional. Hausman test was carried out and findings indicated that random effects model was preferable for this study. Results from panel estimation showed that exchange rate risk affect stock returns of listed financial institutions in Kenya. The study recommended that policies that would attract foreign portfolio investment should be pursued by commercial banks in order to enhance stock returns. Key words: Foreign portfolio equity, stock returns, exchange rate risk, commercial banks, Nairobi securities exchange, Kenya.

Foreign Portfolio Investment Flows to India: Determinants and Analysis

Summary This paper analyzes the macroeconomic determinants of portfolio flows to India and finds that lower exchange rate volatility and greater risk diversification opportunities are conducive to portfolio flows. However, higher equity returns of other emerging markets discourage these flows. Other conventional determinants of portfolio flows are domestic equity performance, exchange rate, interest rate differential and domestic output growth. An analysis of disaggregated portfolio flows shows that determinants of FIIs are similar to aggregate portfolio flows, while ADR/GDRs are significantly influenced only by domestic equity returns, exchange rate, domestic output growth, and foreign output growth.