Foreign Policy Analysts Research Articles

Political Profile of Jacob Sullivan

A representative of the realist school of international relations, Jake Sullivan is the National Security Advisor in the Biden administration. He developed his skills as a foreign policy analyst while occupying senior positions at the State Department under Hillary Clinton. His correspondence with Clinton, once made public, revealed him as a skilled political realist. Sullivan has since become one of the most influential figures in Washington, renowned for his negotiating prowess and ability to find compromise.

Cold War 2.0? Navigating economic development under increased geopolitical tensions

ABSTRACT In December 2017, the US National Security Strategy introduced the notion of a “new era of strategic competition,” describing its once-close economic partner, China, as an “adversary,” “rival” and “strategic competitor.” Some foreign policy analysts point to a looming second cold war – this time between the United States and China. This paper synthesizes the emerging literature in this area, acknowledges the ongoing debates on whether a new cold war has dawned, and draws on insights from the first cold war precisely to establish key differences in contexts. It concludes by outlining some initial policy guidelines for countries navigating the present geopolitical context.

Politics of Vengeance in Iranian Diaspora Communities

The death of the young Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Jina Amini, on September 16, 2022 following her arrest by Iran's now-suspended Gasht-i Irshad (guidance patrol or morality police) for apparent lax conformity to the Islamic dress code ignited protests across Iran. The protests, known as Women, Life, Freedom (Zan, Zendegī, Azadi) quickly spread to Iranian diaspora communities across North America, Europe, and Australia. Initially, diasporic Iranians organized their protests to support and amplify their compatriots’ calls for justice. As the protests continued in Iran and the demands for change grew louder, some members of the Iranian diaspora shifted their focus from the Islamic Republic to the public shaming of Iranians living outside Iran for their purported support of the Iranian regime. Some of the tactics employed by those engaged in public humiliations of suspected regime supporters recalled Gasht-i Irshad's methods of trapping and accosting individuals for perceived infractions. These public confrontations were aimed at isolating, shaming, and silencing perceived allies of the Islamic Republic and, by extension, denouncing the regime for its abrogation of women's and human rights. I refer to this phenomenon among diasporic Iranians as gasht-i intiqām, roving avengers, which reflects a frustration with the absence of justice in Iran and targets purported proxies for the regime. There have been many instances and types of denunciations aimed at silencing and ostracizing individuals, academics, and institutions. As Daniel Block points out in his analysis, “The attacks overwhelmingly target women, most notably in North America and Europe. The victims include gender equality activists, journalists, foreign policy analysts and a historian, each of whom has been accused of colluding with the authoritarian Islamist regime in Tehran.” Block further points out that many of the attacks are anonymous or originate from fake social media accounts. The common denominator he finds among those who target individuals is opposition to “Western-Iranian diplomacy or reporting information that adds subtlety to the debate over how the United States and its allies should handle the Islamic Republic.”1 Often those deemed regime collaborators are Iranian American individuals, journalists, or institutions that supported the 2015 the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, otherwise known as the nuclear deal.

Between War and Peace: Russian Visions of Future Relations with Ukraine and the West

Abstract The paper identifies several Russian visions of future relations with Ukraine and Western nations from the mid-term perspective. Russian scholars and foreign policy analysts have debated several scenarios of future relations that can be defined as a long war, a hostile coexistence, and a renewed peace. While not entirely exclusive, each has its own internal logic and is driven by distinct forces. The paper reviews writings and commentaries by Russian thinkers as reflective of the identified scenarios by analyzing and comparing their arguments. From the Russian perspective, a stable peace is only possible by addressing issues of values, security, and economic and political relations among Russia, Ukraine, and Western countries. An analysis of Russia’s internal discussions presents an opportunity to understand the diversity of the country’s reasoning about future international relations.

Effective Grand Strategy of the 21st Century: An American Foreign Policy based on Values or Interests

Since the end of the Cold War, foreign policy analysts have debated about the most appropriate strategy that the United States should follow in terms of its foreign policy. Making clear the concept of effective strategy in foreign policy and international relations, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the concrete strategies that the United States must follow to be successful in its foreign policy, in the context of the new challenges that the international system is facing in the 21st century. More clearly, in this paper will be identified the character of the international policies that the USA should follow in the system of international relations, as well as the most appropriate means to realize them. The research questions that arise for this purpose are: Should the American foreign policy prioritize liberal values and principles or the American national interest? What role should the US play in providing global public goods? Is it necessary for the USA to invest in a restrictive foreign policy strategy, maintaining defiant military primacy in the context of the problems they are facing today? To answer the above question this study is based on secondary sources as bibliographical analysis, journal articles, as well as the most popular theories of international relations, making efforts to ensure objective and accurate information sources. Also, given that international relations forecasting is a really complex issue, the collection of concrete data and their interpretation based on a comparative approach, has served as an important instrument to make the theoretical framework as reliable as possible.

FM 3-24 and Religious Literacy in American Military Operations in the Middle East

In August 2021, the Taliban’s success in Afghanistan shocked American citizens and foreign policy analysts. Many counterinsurgency experts sought to explain this phenomenon by focusing on tactical and strategic military failures; however, such explanations often neglected to investigate the religious literacy of American troops engaged in counterinsurgency operations in the Middle East. By considering the treatment of religious literacy in General David Petraeus’s landmark field manual, FM 3-24, a startling degree of religious illiteracy is revealed within counterinsurgency operational protocols. While a historically and culturally focused “civilizational approach” is often proposed by foreign policy analysts as a potential solution to the problem of religious illiteracy in counterinsurgency operations, this approach also falls short of addressing the complex realities that confront American “liberators,” whom locals often perceive to be foreign invaders. This article therefore addresses the disconnect between American military strategy, foreign policy, and the tactical realities encountered by military personnel stationed in the Middle East. Resultantly, this article argues that improved mandatory religious literacy training for American troops is critical not only for conducting successful operations in the Middle East but also for ending, rather than reinvigorating, conflicts abroad.

Madhyama Pratipad: Nepal’s Middle Path Ambition through Non-alignment

The geopolitical variable alone is not sufficient to understand Nepal’s entry into NAM and its relevance. While very little literature has been produced on Nepal’s non-alignment, what exists is also limited to either speeches or statements delivered by Nepali leaders at the conferences Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). Still, while scanning the perspective of Non-Nepali Cold War foreign policy analysts in the literature produced on Himalayan geopolitics, it can be clearly observed that Nepal’s voyage to non-alignment was driven by the Indian response to the bipolarity in Cold War. Such a perspective, however, dismisses the influence that MadhyamaPratipad (the concept of the middle path) had in the evolution of Nepal’s foreign policy priorities as a unified state in 1769. MadhyamaPratipad, here, should be understood as the cultural and civilizational philosophy, which Nepal has accommodated in its world view for centuries. Hence, Nepal’s shift to non-alignment was not abrupt and impulsive. Rather it was triggered by the MadhyamaPratipad, which was also realized by the founder of modern Nepal, Prithivi Narayan Shah. While non-alignment and MadhyamaPratipad differ in their approaches, their objectives remain the same: balancing. While non-alignment demands balancing by not being aligned to any security bloc, MadhyamaPratipad appeals to balancing by treading a middle path. Thus, this qualitative study argues how the historical experience of balancing made it easier for the Himalayan state to adapt to the non-aligned policy and posture. Accordingly, non-alignment to Nepal is not only a survival strategy but also a historical expression of its cultural and civilizational philosophy. Therefore, any attempt to understand Nepal’s foreign policy of non-alignment only from the grand narratives of geopolitics and changing dynamics in the regional and international security environment would not be sufficient to weigh the rationale and relevance of non-alignment for Nepal. Today, India’s perceptible shift to multi-alignment and China’s emphasis on the Xi Jinping Thought have already raised the question of the relevance of non-alignment for Nepal. The answers lie in Nepal’s historical experience of balancing.

Populist Minds Think Alike? National Identity Conceptions and Foreign Policy Preferences of Populist Leaders

Abstract The global wave of populism has recently drawn the attention of foreign policy analysts. Despite significant contributions, we still know little about populist leaders’ conceptions of their nation's identity and how these inform foreign policy preferences. What understanding do populists have regarding what their nation stands for and how high it stands in comparison to others? In this article, I introduce a theoretical model of identity-driven foreign policymaking that examines the national identity conceptions of six populist leaders and their non-populist predecessors via an original quantitative content analysis of foreign policy speeches. The article further assesses whether this identity conception translates into foreign policy preferences for revisionism toward the liberal international order by examining voting behavior in the UN General Assembly. The article contributes to conceptual and methodological approaches in foreign policy analysis to study individuals, as well as provides comparative empirical evidence for what drives populists’ foreign policy thinking.

THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ENERGY POLICY, AN INSTRUMENT FOR RECONSOLIDATING THE STATUS OF HIGH POWER

The disintegration of the USSR in December 1991 marked the end of the Cold War. Many foreign policy analysts were quick to point out that Russian Federation had ceased to be a threat to the Western world. Despite facing a multitude of economic, social and military problems, under the leadership of Vladimir Putin the Russian state managed to be reborn. Russian Federation's miraculous return was made possible by the successful implementation of a policy of economic centralization that overlapped with a period of rising global oil prices. Economic prosperity encouraged the Russian Federation government to return to the old practices of the Soviet period, succeeding in unbalancing the fragile states of Eastern Europe and once again endangering the peace of the entire continent.
 
 Keywords: Russian Federation; Cold War; Crimea; hydrocarbons; conflict.

That Distant Country Next Door: Popular Japanese Perceptions of Mao's China by Erik Esselstrom

Reviewed by: That Distant Country Next Door: Popular Japanese Perceptions of Mao's China by Erik Esselstrom Shogo Suzuki (bio) That Distant Country Next Door: Popular Japanese Perceptions of Mao's China. By Erik Esselstrom. University of Hawai'i Press, Honolulu, 2019. x, 230 pages. $68.00. Erik Esselstrom's new book reveals the complexities of Japanese perceptions toward the PRC in Japanese society. The author does this by excavating the "everyday" in Japanese society, analyzing a wide variety of primary sources such as satirical cartoons, advertisements, and editorials from a broad spectrum of current affairs periodicals that were published between the 1950s and 1970s. Esselstrom's approach is to provide readers with snapshots of important events in Sino-Japanese relations during this timeframe (the visit of Li Dequan, China's exploding of the atomic bomb, the Cultural Revolution, and the normalization of Sino-Japanese relations), which also serves to highlight important societal changes that took place within Japanese politics and society. Sino-Japanese relations have often presented something of a paradox for analysts of foreign policy and international relations. While the bitter and emotional feud between Japan and South Korea has been in the spotlight more in recent months, there is no love lost between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Japan. Despite the fact that the two states enjoy close and dense economic relations, this has not, as is often assumed, resulted in enhanced trust or the reduction of diplomatic tensions. Opinion polls indicate [End Page 176] that feelings of affinity toward the PRC remain low. The current absence of disputes over the collective remembering of World War II (known as the "history issue") has meant that there are no overt tensions between Tokyo and Beijing. However, the arguments over the territorial ownership of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands have not gone away, and all it takes is a small spark to bring any suppressed emotions to the surface. The bilateral relations, however, were not always like this. When China and Japan normalized their diplomatic relations in 1972, the two states emphasized friendship. Japan enjoyed something of a "China boom," epitomized by the panda boom and the Sino-Japanese documentary on the Silk Road, which cultivated a somewhat romanticized image of China among the Japanese. The positive start to Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations after 1972 is often explained through the lens of cold war strategic interests. In the context of the Sino-Soviet dispute, Beijing decided to balance against the Soviet Union by cultivating closer relations with the capitalist West, and this was achieved in dramatic fashion by the Sino-U.S. rapprochement in 1972. The normalization of Sino-Japanese relations soon followed. The PRC considered Japan to be an important ally in its confrontation with Moscow, while the Japanese were keen to tap into the vast Chinese market. In this explanation, it is strategic interests that contributed toward "warm" relations between the two states—a classic case of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." Once China's relations with the Soviets began to improve in the early 1980s, Japan's strategic value for China began to diminish, and previously "suppressed" territorial disputes or the "history issue" came to the fore and have dogged the bilateral relationship ever since. These explanations are a useful first cut to understand the fluctuations in Sino-Japanese relations, but they are both state-centric and also a fairly blunt instrument to understand the broader societal context in which the two states conduct their foreign policy. While they may be able to explain why Tokyo and Beijing were able to "shelve" their differences (albeit temporarily) for the sake of cold war strategic interests, they cannot quite explain how and why the Japanese were seemingly able to make a switch from their often outright racist and hostile attitudes toward China during World War II and support friendly relations with their former foe. We may also ask why and how it is that the feelings of affinity the Japanese held toward China in the 1970s have managed to be transformed so thoroughly in recent years. The suppression of the Tiananmen demonstrations of 1989 is typically given as a turning point; but while...

Conspiratorial thinking and foreign policy views: evidence from Central Europe

ABSTRACT Foreign policy analysts assume that conspiratorial thinking is linked to citizens’ foreign policy views and in particular to a preference among citizens for an alignment with Russia rather than the West. Empirical studies on the relationship between conspiratorial thinking and citizens’ foreign policy views are, however, lacking, despite a growing general academic interest in its origins and consequences. Our analysis breaks new ground by empirically evaluating the relationship between conspiratorial thinking and foreign policy preferences based on ISSP survey data for Slovakia. We find that conspiratorial thinking decreases the extent to which citizens prefer their country to be aligned with the West. The effect of conspiratorial thinking is substantively meaningful and on par with other predictors of foreign policy views.

‘International Law in Ancient China’: Eurocentrism and the Rethinking of Case Studies in Chinese Intellectual History

ABSTRACT The opening of the twentieth-first century has been a time of uncertainty. Despite many visions of the future, a Eurocentric bias is still at heart of the discourse about world order. For instance, the ‘Thucydides Trap’ as a metaphor is often borrowed by political theories to make sense of the changing relationship between China and the United States. Yet as many are turning to ancient history in the ‘West’ to find wisdom for the future, they tend to overlook the story from the other side of the globe. In this paper, I investigate a genealogy of thought that there existed an international order in ancient China. The concept sounds like an oxymoron to many people today. Yet various scholars have adopted this view as an alternative to the Eurocentric world of international relations over the course of the long twentieth century, from the Western missionary W. A. P. Martin in late Qing, the Chinese historian He Bingsong in the Republican period, to the hawkish PRC foreign policy analyst Yan Xuetong. Recalling this legacy will help us to appreciate the crucial role of political idealism in the reshuffling of international relations in a world that is increasingly leaning towards power politics.

A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience

Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises and to assess the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the potentially huge human costs of state collapse and civil war. The premise of this paper is that a transdisciplinary approach to forecasting social breakdown, recovery, and resilience is entirely feasible, as a result of recent breakthroughs in statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, the qualitative insights of historical and semiotic investigations, and agent-based models that translate between micro-dynamics of interacting individuals and the collective macro-level events emerging from these interactions. Our goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery, based on historical crises and outcomes, which can aid the analysis of potential outcomes of future crises. We call this approach—similar in spirit to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). This paper aims to set out the methodological premises and basic stages envisaged to realize this goal within a transdisciplinary research collaboration: first, the statistical analysis of a massive database of past instances of crisis to determine how actual outcomes (the severity of disruption and violence, the speed of resolution) depend on inputs (economic, political, and cultural factors); second, the encoding of these analytical insights into probabilistic, empirically informed computational models of societal breakdown and recovery—the MPF engine; third, testing the MPF engine to “predict” the trajectories and outcomes of another set of past social upheavals, which were not used in building the model. This “historical retrodiction” is an innovation that will allow us to further refine the MPF technology. Ultimately our vision is to use MPF to help write what we call “a history of possible futures,” in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically forecast.

Foreign Policy Making in the Age of Populism: The Uses of Anti-Westernism in Turkish Politics

Many foreign policy analysts portray leaders as “chief negotiators” responsible for delicately sustaining a balancing act between the interests of their domestic constituents and the wishes of extra-national actors (e.g. other governments, international organisations, multinational companies). This depiction may accurately explain the behaviour of decision-makers in liberal democratic societies, but foreign policy making function differently in illiberal populist polities. This article argues that contemporary Turkey constitutes an illiberal populist regime where foreign policy making is subjugated to domestic policy concerns, and an assertive anti-Western foreign policy rhetoric is often systematically employed to generate public support to the incumbent AKP (Justice and Development Party) administration. Using the AKP’s 2017 Constitutional Referendum campaign as a case study, I suggest that anti-Westernism is an effective discourse to garner domestic support under illiberal populism.

КИТАЙСКИЕ ДИСКУССИИ ОБ ОТНОШЕНИЯХ С США И ТОРГОВОЙ ВОЙНЕ

The article analyzes the debates of Chinese researchers on the relations with the United States at the backstage of the “trade war”. The statements of the Chinese leadership about the continuation of the “period of historical chances” for national development are combined with calls to be prepared for contingencies and to pay extra attention to new trends in international environment that do not correspond with normative theses about irreversible tendencies of multipolarity, economic globalization and impossibility of a large-scale war. “Trade war” has become an incentive for understanding the reasons of deterioration in bilateral relations and searching for new sources of their stability. The most of Chinese foreign policy analysts believe that it is possible to extend the “period of historical chances” even in time of such a deterioration. However, the standard set of recommendations from Chinese experts (deepening of market reforms, participation in the reform of global governance and world order, strengthening national power while expanding cooperation with other countries for the sake of construction of a “new type of international relations”) have not offered a recipe how to prevent further worsening of Chinese-American relations. Broad positive recommendations to develop dialogue and avoid serious conflicts are useless at strategic junctures when the opposite side speaks the language of ultimatums. Chinese mainstream habitually emphasizes that cooperation between Beijing and Washington is beneficial to both countries and for the world, while no one gains from the confrontation. The proposals to the American side to “get rid of the zero-sum game mentality”, “take a more positive look at the development of China”, “constantly expand the space and prospects for bilateral win” were not able to curb constantly rising tensions in bilateral relations. Nevertheless, in a number of academic publications one can find optimistic statements that in the next couple of years, Donald Trump will surely soften the U.S. policy towards China. Realist point of view recognizes the possibility of intensifying rivalry between Beijing and Washington. Chinese researchers are increasingly turning to the analysis of the interaction of the two countries as “competition together with cooperation” or “struggle without destruction” (“dou er bu po”). The intention to establish an atmosphere of “healthy competition” in bilateral relations may not be feasible, since China does not have tools to convince Trump administration to abandon the pursuit of absolute superiority. After the bilateral trade lost its function as a stabilizer of Sino-American relations, experts felt the necessity to find new sources of stability. The main task is not focused on restoring the previous levels of cooperation. It is more important to recognize the differences between the two countries and create new effective mechanisms for conflict management by clearly defining “red lines” and communicating with other party to clarify interests and strategic intentions. In reliance on research publications in Chinese academic journals, the article demonstrates that optimistic judgments about the continual importance and strength of China-U.S. relations gradually gave way to realistic estimates based on the recognition of fundamental changes in this sphere. More notable became the efforts of Chinese researchers in comparative analysis of national strategies and consideration of alternative scenarios for further development of relations with the United States.&nbsp

A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience

Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises and to assess the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the potentially huge human costs of state collapse and civil war. The premise of this paper is that a transdisciplinary approach to forecasting social breakdown, recovery, and resilience is entirely feasible, as a result of recent breakthroughs in statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, the qualitative insights of historical and semiotic investigations, and agent-based models that translate between micro-dynamics of interacting individuals and the collective macro-level events emerging from these interactions. Our goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery, based on historical crises and outcomes, which can aid the analysis of potential outcomes of future crises. We call this approach—similar in spirit to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). This paper aims to set out the methodological premises and basic stages envisaged to realize this goal within a transdisciplinary research collaboration: first, the statistical analysis of a massive database of past instances of crisis to determine how actual outcomes (the severity of disruption and violence, the speed of resolution) depend on inputs (economic, political, and cultural factors); second, the encoding of these analytical insights into probabilistic, empirically informed computational models of societal breakdown and recovery—the MPF engine; third, testing the MPF engine to “predict” the trajectories and outcomes of another set of past social upheavals, which were not used in building the model. This “historical retrodiction” is an innovation that will allow us to further refine the MPF technology. Ultimately our vision is to use MPF to help write what we call “a history of possible futures,” in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically forecast.

Partisan Conflict Over Grand Strategy in Eastern Europe, 2014-2017

How should foreign policy analysts understand the American response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014? Despite widespread bipartisan recognition that Eastern European states, from the Baltic States to the Black Sea, were experiencing their most severe crisis since at least the end of the Cold War, the United States responded with little military support to the region. Even though all sides agreed on the need for a larger response, the tepid reaction to the Russian invasion was due to the partisan divide over the means of addressing the issue. This divide foreclosed the two main options for the President: a redeployment of forces from the United States or a larger military and budget. This disagreement over the means, rather than the ends, counter intuitively prevented a response for which both parties expressed support. [Display omitted]

North by North

[Extract] Seven centuries of cartographic convention has placed north at the top of maps, and by logical extension at the top of the world. This convention has been closely aligned with another, known as the Mercator projection. Devised by the Flemish cartographer Gerardus Mercator in 1659, this system of map-making has been uncritically handed down through the centuries to the present time and continues to be the cartographic standard in many parts of the world. Mercator’s projection not only points northward but exaggerates northern landmasses at the expense of the south. For example, it magnifies Greenland to be approximately the same size as Africa, which is actually fourteen times larger. The Greenland example is one of many northern amplifications and conceits that belittle the south. The specific contrast with Africa was presented with deadpan humour and devastating effect in a 2012 episode of Aaron Sorkin’s The West Wing. Cartographers for Social Equity lobby President Bartlet’s White House to withdraw all Mercator maps from US schools and replace them with Gall-Peters maps. The Gall-Peters projection represents with greater fidelity and accuracy the relative proportions of the world’s landmasses. The Cartographers for Social Equity fail in their representation but, coincidental or not, five years after the screening of The West Wing episode Gall-Peters maps began to be phased in at schools in two American states. North and south are cardinal directions and polar opposites that refer to exact locations at either end of the globe. Within ice-bound regions, the North Pole defines the Arctic, an old term derived from Latin and Greek to mean north. By contrast, its antithesis—the Antarctic—is a negative term that means opposite to north. It is defined by the South Pole. This linguistic preference suggests that north is the one while south is the other.

Winning, Westminster-style: Tamil diaspora interest group mobilisation in Canada and the UK

ABSTRACTMigration scholars are becoming increasingly interested in diasporas and in their ‘host state’ activities. In a separate body of literature, foreign policy analysts have been considering domestic sources of foreign policy and increasingly the impact of diaspora interest groups on host state foreign policy. The convergence of these two strands offers fertile ground to explore the efforts of diaspora interest groups on host state foreign policy. This illustrative, comparative case study adds additional rigour to existing analyses of mobilised diaspora host state lobbying by further conceptualising policy outcome through the application of the literature on interest groups. Theoretically, it further situates diaspora lobbying into the foreign policy literature by introducing Role Theory, which aids in demonstrating the impact of structural differences when considering similar actors. Via this theoretically informed template, the paper argues that slight contextual variation in two seemingly analogous contexts can discernibly impact outcomes, in this case on whether or not Tamil diaspora interest groups influenced British and Canadian foreign policy in 2009 toward the civil war in Sri Lanka.

Migration diplomacy in the Global South: cooperation, coercion and issue linkage in Gaddafi’s Libya

Despite a recent resurgence in research on the politics of migration, foreign policy analysts have yet to approach cross-border population mobility as a distinct field of inquiry. Particularly within the Global South, scant work has theorised the interplay between migration and interstate bargaining. This article proposes the framework of migration diplomacy to examine how mobility features in states’ issue-linkage strategies, in both cooperative and coercive contexts. Drawing on Arabic, French and English primary sources, it empirically demonstrates the salience of its framework through an analysis of Libya’s migration diplomacy towards its Arab, African and European neighbours under Muammar Gaddafi.