Foreign Exchange Market Pressure Research Articles

Foreign Exchange Market Pressure, Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in Nigeria: Is There Evidence of the J-Curve Effect?

The paper examined the relationship between the pressure in the exchange market, exchange rate, and trade balance in Nigeria to ascertain whether or not the J-Curve effects exist. The investigation was anchored on the Marshal-Lerner and the J-Curve theories using annual time series data from 1986 to 2021. The Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) technique was employed, and the findings revealed that the pressure in the exchange market exerts a strong contemporaneous positive effect on the exchange rate in the country. Also, the findings showed that the exchange rate has a strong contemporaneous negative effect on the trade balance. Furthermore, the long-run results indicated that the exchange rate has a positive but weak effect on the country’s trade balance. Based on these findings, it was concluded that the relationship that exists among foreign exchange market pressure, exchange rate, and balance of trade suggests the potentiality of the J-Curve effects in the economy. The study recommended that local production of goods and services in Nigeria should be strengthened so that the depreciation of the naira would improve the trade balance. In the event of naira depreciation, domestic consumers could redirect their demand to the consumption of locally produced goods and services. Also, local production, especially in manufacturing and agricultural processing, should be encouraged, and the quality of the products be enhanced for competitive exportation to improve the trade balance in the country. The policy implication is that policymakers can leverage naira depreciation as a policy tool to enhance Nigeria’s balance of trade.

Currencies of greater interest for central Asian economies: an analysis of exchange market pressure amid global and regional interdependence

Central Asian Economies (CAEs) have diverse exchange rate policies. They have recorded higher volatility in the foreign exchange market since inception. High volatility of the transition era has drifted these economies towards partial dollarization. Monetary authorities in CAEs, (already have a challenge of maintaining monetary policy autonomy) have a gigantic task of price stability and stopping the spread of dollarization. This study is directed towards assessing the drivers and the determinants of foreign exchange market pressure in CAEs. The results, based on panel data analysis and the System GMM model, have provided useful insights about the exchange market pressure determinants particularly USD, Euro, Ruble, and Renminbi. The results show that China and Russia exchange market pressure has a negative effect on the exchange market pressure of CAEs. While the dollar index shows a positive impact on the exchange market pressure of CAEs. Overall, the findings imply that China and Russia currency appreciation results in a trade deficit across CAEs. The policy implication suggests that the floating exchange rate regime (inflation targeting regime) is not in favor of CAEs, and they must use managed-float to reduce their trade deficits.

Foreign Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy in Nigeria

Foreign Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy in Nigeria

Investigating the Effects of Financial Risks with Central Bank Policy Intervention and Foreign Exchange Market Pressure on the Stability of Banking sector Based on Gerton and Ruper Model: Nonlinear Smooth Transition Regression Approach

Investigating the Effects of Financial Risks with Central Bank Policy Intervention and Foreign Exchange Market Pressure on the Stability of Banking sector Based on Gerton and Ruper Model: Nonlinear Smooth Transition Regression Approach

Foreign exchange market pressure and stock market dynamics in emerging Asia

Foreign exchange market pressure and stock market dynamics in emerging Asia

Modeling the foreign exchange market pressure in the monetary policy of the Iranian economy with a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium approach

Modeling the foreign exchange market pressure in the monetary policy of the Iranian economy with a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium approach

Impact of uncertainty on foreign exchange market stability: based on the LT-TVP-VAR model

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of uncertainty, namely, macroeconomic uncertainty (MU) and financial uncertainty (FU) on foreign exchange market stability, specifically on foreign exchange market pressure (EMP) and jump risk (RJV).Design/methodology/approachThe latent threshold time-varying parameter VAR (LT-TVP-VAR) econometric approach is used in estimations to solve structural breaks.FindingsThe relationship of uncertainties and China's foreign exchange market stability is latent threshold nonlinear dynamic time-varying. In China's renminbi (RMB) appreciation stage, both MU and FU weaken the appreciation pressure of RMB. Moreover, MU and FU significantly increase the RJV, while MU significantly affects the RJV of the foreign exchange market. In the RMB depreciation stage, both MU and FU strengthen the EMP.Research limitations/implicationsFindings based on data in China's foreign exchange market can be considered for other global markets in future research.Practical implicationsAn increase in MU and FU has a negative effect on foreign exchange stability. Regulators can prevent the economic system uncertainty shocks on foreign exchange market stability through observation and judgment of MU and FU, which helps prevent and relieve financial risks. Investors can reduce foreign exchange risk as the exchange rate rebounds after hedging behavior during high uncertainty periods.Originality/valueThe effect of MU on the foreign exchange market stability is greater than that of FU, regardless of whether EMP or RJV occurs in the foreign exchange market.

Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: The Turkish Case

The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange market pressure index in Turkey for the 2002–2018 period with monthly data. To obtain the foreign exchange market pressure index, this study uses the model developed by L. Girton and D.E. Roper and is based fundamentally on the monetary approach to exchange rate determination and the balance of payments. The calculated exchange market pressure index is in accordance with the developments lived in financial markets and changes in monetary policy during the period under investigation. As for the relation between exchange market pressure index and monetary policy, a VAR model was set up and a Granger type causality analysis was carried out. According to Granger causality test results, there is a unidirectional causality running from domestic credit expansion to exchange market pressure and from domestic credit expansion to interest rate differential while there is a bidirectional causality between exchange market pressure and interest rate differential. Since increasing exchange market pressure means a depreciation of the Turkish Lira, the estimated VAR model’s results support the view that the Central Bank will increase the interest rate to temper the exchange market pressure.

Foreign exchange market pressure index and monetary policy in Iraq

This paper?s aims are to adequately measure a foreign exchange market pressure index that can be used to discover pressures in the Iraqi foreign exchange market early on, and to examine the effect of monetary policy intervention in the Iraqi foreign exchange market. The modelling approach used is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), with monthly time series data spanning 2013-2017. The index used in this paper was able to identify different periods of pressure in the Iraqi foreign exchange market. In addition, the econometric analysis found that the traditional proxies for monetary policy intervention in the foreign exchange market, such as domestic credit and money multiplier, were ineffective in the case of Iraq. The results show that the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) relied extensively on foreign reserves to mitigate pressures in the foreign exchange market. Due to the nature of the Iraqi economy and where the main source of foreign currency is oil exports, the CBI adopted a fixed exchange rate regime to control inflationary expectations and stabilize the foreign exchange market.

Exchange Market Pressure in China: A Re-Examination Based on Girton-Roper Monetary Model

For China’s inefficient foreign exchange market, as the foreign exchange market is difficult to clear in time, so the foreign exchange market pressure always exists. Therefore, the in-depth study and discussion of China’s foreign exchange market pressure issue has important practical significance. This paper applies Lance Girton and Don Roper’s monetary model of exchange market pressure to China’s experience. The purpose of this paper is mainly to test whether the excess supply of money in China can be absorbed by some combination of the change in exchange rate and the change in foreign reserves. The results of empirical analysis indicate that the basic theoretical proposition is accordant with the practice.

Exchange Arrangements and Currency Crises: What´s the matter with the exchange rate classification?

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether certain exchange rate arrangements are more prone to currency crises using a probit model. We define a currency crisis as a period characterised by the presence of intense foreign exchange market pressure. The definition is based on a foreign exchange market pressure index (MPI). If the value of the MPI is above a certain threshold, we define that period as a crisis state; otherwise the period is defined as a tranquil state. The definition of currency crises used in this paper focuses on discrete events.

Foreign exchange market pressure and capital controls

This novel empirical study contributes to the literature on the foreign exchange market and financial liberalisation. We examine the determinants of exchange market pressure (EMP) in a panel of forty countries, using a statistical approach to measure market pressure, with particular focus upon the impact of capital controls. We also consider whether EMP is related to a range of other macroeconomic indicators, policy variables and trade openness. We find that capital controls are associated with weaker currencies, especially for advanced countries. Our results are robust to potential endogeneity and different measures of exchange market pressure.

Monetary policy and exchange market pressure–evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of monetary policy on foreign exchange market pressure (EMP) in developing country contexts for some selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and to measure the ability of monetary policy to significantly address currency pressures that arise from trading on the global market. This study was motivated by the fact that most of the SSA countries are developing economies that have negative net export positions and stand to lose significantly from consistently deteriorating foreign exchange position. The study, therefore, employs a dynamic panel model to test the hypothesis that a tighter monetary policy stance lends strength to a currency and vice versa, using 20 SSA economies for the period from 1991 to 2010. This study finds a negative and significant relationship between monetary policy and EMP, implying an easing of EMP in the face of contractionary monetary policy. The findings also point to significant relations between aggregate output, levels of public debt, the current account balance, terms of trade and EMP. Findings of this study have important implications as regards the policy direction on exchange rate and currency management.

A monetary approach to the exchange market pressure index under capital control

The conventional Exchange Market Pressure Index (EMPI), originated from Girton and Roper (1977) and popularized by Eichengreen et al. (1994, 1995) and Weymark (1995), uses weighted average of loss of foreign reserves and depreciation of local currency to capture foreign exchange market pressure. However, it does not take into account the effect of capital control on foreign exchange market pressure. With effective capital control, the conventional EMPI tends to under- or overestimate the actual foreign exchange market pressure, depending on the magnitude of capital control. We adopt a monetary approach to derive a formula for new EMPI under capital control. Then we test the difference between the old and the new EMPI with China's data. The result shows that the conventional EMPI overestimates the actual foreign exchange market pressure by 91% in average.

A monetary analysis of foreign exchange market disequilibrium in Fiji

This paper evaluates a monetary model of foreign exchange market pressure in Fiji using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing methodology. The results suggest that if the monetary authorities in Fiji fix the exchange rate, they lose the ability to implement an independent monetary policy through control of central bank credit. Stronger monetary control is regained to the extent that pressure in the foreign exchange market is relieved through exchange rate movements rather than reserve movements.

Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform: Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010

AbstractIn the present paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, the currency basket, the floating band and the foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. We find the following stylized facts: the value of the RMB became stable after the reform; the weight of the US dollar remained high in the basket, while other currencies remained statistically significant; and the floating band gradually increased to 10 percent during 2005–2008, and then greatly narrowed from the late summer of 2008 under the assumption of a yearly resetting interval. We find that the foreign exchange market pressure increased from 2005 to 2008. A possible reason is that the weight of the US dollar in the basket was slightly lower than the share of the US dollar in total transactions on the Chinese foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is reasonable for China to adopt a dollar peg exchange rate regime.

The Performance of East Asian Markets upon the 2008 Global Financial Tsunami: Currency Crisis and Banking Crisis

The 2008 Global Financial Tsunami severely impacted global economies including the East Asian markets. Coming on the heels of the prolonged 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, economists are keenly interested to compare and contrast these two financial crises. An analysis of foreign exchange and money market pressure indexes indicates that the impact of the 2008 Global Financial Tsunami was far less severe than the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Therefore, we anticipate a speedy recovery in East Asian markets. Furthermore, speculative attacks were also less significant during the 2008 Global Financial Tsunami. It is obvious that the nature of the most recent Financial Tsunami was different from that of the Asian Financial Crisis. Our results provide a reference for nations which are going through a financial crisis.

The model and empirical estimation of the optimal flexibility of RMB exchange-rate regime: A study based on the price-stabilization

Under the Mundell-Fleming-Dornbusch (M-F-D) framework, the paper develops a stochastic model to study the optimal choice of RMB exchange rate regime based on two objectives, namely the exchange rate stabilization and price stabilization. The paper finds that different policy objectives will lead to different optimal choices of RMB exchange-rate regime. If the central bank aims to stabilize the price level, the optimal choice would be a certain type of intermediate regime, or the optimal choice would be a fixed one if it aims to stabilize the RMB exchange rate. Based on the model, the paper empirically estimates China’s open economy parameters and uses them to estimate the optimal flexibility of RMB exchange rate regime. The paper points out that China should allow more exchange rate changes to absorb its foreign exchange market pressure in order to stabilize the general price level, which indicates that China should move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime.

Regional heterogeneity in the relationship between fiscal imbalances and foreign exchange market pressure

Summary The relationship between fiscal imbalances and other macroeconomic variables is complex and multifaceted. However, it remains important to understand it, not least in order to facilitate the design of appropriate policy. One central issue is whether the relationship varies across countries or groups of countries. If it does, an implication is that policy will also have to be differentiated. This paper empirically explores the relationship between fiscal imbalances and pressures in the foreign exchange (FX) market in Latin America & Caribbean (LAC) and East Asia & the Pacific (EAP) regions. Using panel data over 1970–2000, it finds that fiscal imbalances have a significant effect on FX pressures in LAC but not in EAP.

Searching for indicators of foreign exchange market pressure: evidence from Greece

This paper uses vector autoregressive (VAR) techniques to examine the indicator properties of a number of macroeconomic variables with respect to foreign exchange (FX) market pressure in Greece during the period 1975–1995. The framework of analysis is also used to assess the relative importance of the associated shocks as sources of fluctuations in the FX market pressure index (FXI). The Granger causality results show that the real overvaluation of the drachma, the reserves adequacy ratio, the current account balance and the net capital movements have predictive power with respect to the FX market pressure. The results of variance and historical decompositions show that shocks attributable to real overvaluation, the reserve adequacy ratio and the net capital movements are the dominant sources of volatility in the FXI. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.