Foreign Exchange Intervention Research Articles

Some implications of behavioral finance for international monetary analysis

This paper discusses some of the important insights from behavioral finance for international monetary and financial analysis. A broad approach to behavioral finance is advocated which includes analysis of the effects of uncertainty, perverse incentives, and complexity economics as well as the cognitive biases focused on in the initial contributions to behavioral finance. It offers reasons why capital mobility is often not perfect and expectations are sometimes not rational. Correctly interpreted it is not a wholesale attack on efficient market theory but rather argues that markets can behave differently at different times, being efficient sometimes and subject to destabilize or insufficiently stabilizing speculation at others and focuses on the conditions that make different types of behavior more likely. It helps provide insights into issues such as currency crisis, the effects of official intervention in foreign exchange markets, the international monetary trilemma, capital flow surges and reversals, the discipline effects of fixed exchange rates and international financial markets and why uncovered interest rate parity often does not hold.

Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Data Set of Official Data and Estimates

AbstractA better understanding of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) is often hindered by the lack of data. This paper provides a new data set of FXI covering a large number of countries since 2000 at monthly and quarterly frequencies. It includes published official data for about 40 countries as well as carefully constructed estimates for 122 countries. Estimates account for a wide range of central bank operations, including both spot and derivative transactions. These estimates improve upon traditional proxies based on changes in reserves, by adjusting for valuation changes, income flows, and changes in other foreign‐currency balance sheet positions (both vis‐à‐vis residents and nonresidents)—the first estimates to do the latter to our knowledge—thus providing a more accurate measure of operations that change the central bank's foreign currency position. The data set also provides a classification of FXI operations into sterilized or not sterilized, a key dimension for economic analysis. Finally, the paper discusses the merits of the new estimates relative to traditional proxies, and presents stylized facts.

The effectiveness of macroprudential policies in managing extreme capital flow episodes

AbstractAgainst the backdrop of a proliferation of policy tools in recent years, there is ongoing policy uncertainty surrounding the suitability of capital flow management in mitigating systemic risk and financial disruptions. We study the effectiveness of macroprudential policies in managing extreme capital flow episodes (surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment), comparing them to capital controls and foreign exchange interventions. Using propensity score matching, based on a panel of 54 countries spanning 1990Q1 to 2020Q3, we find that macroprudential policy can reduce the likelihood of extreme capital flow episodes at least as effectively as capital controls or foreign exchange interventions. Their relative effectiveness, however, varies considerably across type of instrument, proliferation of tools, country income‐development level, and type of extreme capital flow episode.

Foreign Exchange Interventions in the New-Keynesian Model: Transmission, Policy, and Welfare

Foreign Exchange Interventions in the New-Keynesian Model: Transmission, Policy, and Welfare

АНАЛІЗ ЕФЕКТИВНОСТІ ВИКОРИСТАННЯ ІНСТРУМЕНТІВ ВАЛЮТНОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ В УКРАЇНІ В ПЕРІОДИ КРИЗ 2008–2009 ТА 2019–2020 РОКІВ

The article is devoted to the analysis, comparison and evaluation of the effectiveness of the foreign exchange policy instruments used during the crises of 2008-2009 and 2019-2020 in Ukraine. The main types of instruments of foreign exchange regulation and the priority areas of their application were defined. The authors took under consideration the key features of the construction of the socioeconomic model of Ukraine, the geopolitical situation, and the imposition of cyclical fluctuations during the considered periods. In the course of the study, the exchange rate fluctuations of the national currency against the US dollar were monitored to determine dynamics of the devaluation and revaluation processes within the given time frames. In order to detail the regulatory foreign exchange policy, a separate analysis of the use of NBU tools within the current and long-term strategy was carried out, the differences were identified and the consequences were outlined. The conducted research showed that during both crises the discount policy, namely the change in the discount rate, was most actively used. But the changes were somewhat divergent: more aggressive liberal measures taken to reduce the discount rate during the 2019-2020 crisis appeared to be more effective compared to the crisis of 2008-2009. This is evidenced by data on changes in GDP PPP, indicating the best positive dynamics when exiting the recession during the pandemic. However, in both cases, significant devaluation was observed. In order to determine the causes and consequences of the depreciation of the national currency in relation to the US dollar and other currencies, an analysis of the balance of payments accounts was carried out by individual articles. This made it possible to indicate significant differences in the nature of the origin of these crises. The instruments of motto policy were also used with varying degrees of activity and in the opposite direction. Foreign exchange interventions in 2008-2009, in contrast to the period of 2019-2020, were used very limitedly due to the rather rapid depletion of gold and foreign exchange reserves. Foreign exchange restrictions were strengthened in 2008-2009, and liberalized in 2019-2020. As a result, it allowed to revive investment flows and improve the business climate in the country. It is also noted that against the background of general devaluation during both crises, a period of revaluation of the national currency was also observed in 2019. The analysis showed that in that case it was rather a negative phenomenon, which led to significant losses in the revenue part of the budget due to a decrease in revenues from customs payments, resulted from the inconsistent actions of the NBU and relevant ministries. Other elements of foreign exchange policy were almost not used: the degree of currency convertibility and the exchange rate regime did not change (with the exception of a short period of introduction of the exchange rate band). The same can be said about the instruments of the long-term foreign exchange policy: the order of international settlements was slightly adjusted, but not significantly; the regime of exchange rates and parities remained unchanged; the use of gold and reserve currencies was combined with the diversification of foreign exchange reserves and was mainly related to foreign exchange interventions and the fulfillment of external debt obligations. The conducted analysis allowed to identify the main directions of the foreign exchange policy of Ukraine regarding the stabilization of the economy and the achievement of sustainable economic growth. To solve this problem, it is advisable to gradually introduce foreign exchange liberalization, introduce new reforms and state projects that might improve the investment climate. It is also appropriate to de-dollarize the debts of enterprises through incentives for lending in the national currency. In the long term, it is appropriate to strengthen financial and capital markets to ensure the stability of economic growth.

Integrated Policy Framework—Principles for the Use of Foreign Exchange Intervention

Integrated Policy Framework—Principles for the Use of Foreign Exchange Intervention

The temporal dimensions of policy responses to capital surges

The temporal dimensions of policy responses to capital surges

Foreign Exchange Pressure and Foreign Exchange Intervention in Nigeria: A Review of Literature

This paper conducts a comprehensive examination of the concepts of foreign exchange pressure and foreign exchange intervention within the Nigerian foreign exchange market. It delves into the theoretical foundations and empirical evidence underpinning these crucial elements of economic policy in Nigeria. To begin, the paper elucidates the various factors driving foreign exchange pressure in the Nigerian context, encompassing trade imbalances, external shocks, and economic fluctuations, which exert significant pressure on the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves, necessitating effective strategies for policymakers and market participants. Furthermore, the paper sheds light on the theoretical frameworks and models that form the basis of foreign exchange intervention, emphasizing the substantial impact of central bank and government interventions on maintaining foreign exchange market stability, averting abrupt currency devaluations, and upholding macroeconomic equilibrium. Additionally, the paper reviews empirical literature, offering valuable insights into the practical implications of foreign exchange pressure and intervention in Nigeria, showcasing the Nigerian central bank's use of measures like capital controls, foreign exchange auctions, and exchange rate pegs. The effective management of foreign exchange pressure in Nigeria plays a pivotal role in ensuring economic stability, bolstering international trade, and fostering sustainable economic growth within the nation.

Does the Interest Parity Puzzle Hold for Central and Eastern European Economies?

AbstractThis paper examines the uncovered interest parity puzzle in Central and Eastern European countries. Apart from investigating baseline UIP regressions, we check for structural breaks in this relationship, scrutinize deviations from the UIP, and employ different estimation methods and models augmented with various risk measures. Moreover, we offer several extensions to the common UIP testing that account for foreign-exchange interventions, the implied volatility of exchange rates, and the limited availability of data on direct measures of market expectations. The study shows that the choice of the reference currency matters for the outcome of the interest parity tests in the CEE economies. In particular, we demonstrate that inconsistencies between the results of the UIP tests vis-à-vis the euro and the US dollar that appear in CEE economies may be accounted for by the movements of the euro-dollar risk premium. This regularity has not been documented in previous studies. Additionally, we show that (a) the FX interventions in Czechia distorted the UIP, (b) the directly measured exchange rate expectations (granular survey data) in Poland do not seem to be informed by the UIP relationship, (c) the limited resilience of CEE economies to rare disasters may plausibly explain deviations from the UIP.

International effects of quantitative easing and foreign exchange intervention

A two-country general equilibrium model is developed to study the global consequences of quantitative easing and foreign exchange intervention. The model incorporates financial frictions such as limited commitment, differential pledgeability of assets as collateral, and a low supply of collateralizable assets. Due to differential asset pledgeability, financial intermediaries acquire different asset portfolios particular to their home country. Quantitative easing can reduce long-term nominal interest rates, mitigate financial frictions globally, and depreciate the currency of the country that supplies more pledgeable assets. The international effects of foreign exchange intervention depend on the implementing country. If implemented by the country that supplies more pledgeable assets, such intervention can ease financial frictions and enhance welfare globally.

The effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions in Japan

This study informs the academic and policy debate on the policy effectiveness of exchange rate interventions on exchange rate levels and volatility. Using a constructed data set comprising daily data on exchange rates, monetary policy fundamentals, exchange rate intervention dates and magnitudes of those interventions as well as financial news speculation of such interventions, we empirically estimate the policy effectiveness of Bank of Japan interventions in the exchange rate over the 12-year period between 2010 and 2022. This allows us to investigate the policy effectiveness of a variety of exchange rate interventions, or news of exchange rate interventions, across different time-horizons. We find that policy interventions in the yen exchange rate are more effective over short-horizons than long-horizons, more effective when the policy objective is a competitive devaluation of the yen rather than a revaluation, and more effective at influencing the level of the yen against major world currencies other than the US dollar. In fact, for the yen-dollar rate, we find that policy interventions may have the unintended consequences of weakening the yen (when the policy intention is to strengthen it) and increasing volatility in the yen-dollar exchange rate.

INTERVENTION ANNOUNCEMENTS AND NAIRA MANAGEMENT: EVIDENCE FROM THE NIGERIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

Many studies establish how foreign exchange intervention affects the exchange rates. Intervention announcement do also have impact different for the actual financial involvement. Recent evidence has tested this for some countries but none has investigated Nigeria, despite volume of interventions and its announcements made via press circulars by the central bank. The paper applies daily data, from January 02, 2001 to May 15, 2023, to verify the impact of intervention announcements on the Nigerian exchange rate. The paper evaluates the relationship based on an event driven baseline specification, which measure the impact of announcement period windows on the exchange rate. The paper finds conclusive evidence of highly significant impacts that past, contemporaneous and future intervention announcements cause appreciation shocks. The naira is revealed to appreciate by 3.5% upon the intervention announcement, and this further increases to 4.49%, 4.55% and 5.22%, on one day, two day, three days after, but subsequently slow down on fourth day (5.21%) and fifth day (3.45%) after the intervention announcements. Robustness test based using alternative data frequency for the estimation yields close (different) result for the monthly (quarterly) periodicity, therefore supposes that the data frequency matters. The result has implications for future conduct of interventions and conventional monetary policies. Amongst others, higher market uncertainty, low credibility of transmission mechanism and possible predominance of global over the national factors may contribute to influences the effectiveness of interventions. The paper’s major limitation is that it excludes the influence of actual intervention, via sales and purchases of dollar, by the central bank.

Foreign exchange intervention and the Dutch disease under incomplete information

This study examined the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention as a policy response to the Dutch disease episode in an oil-exporting developing economy when the monetary authority is uncertain about the persistence of oil price shocks. Based on the results of the different scenarios modelled, the policy response to the Dutch disease will have to go beyond foreign exchange intervention to embrace structural reforms that will address the self-replicating causes of the continuous decline in manufacturing output. There is, however, still room to explore the optimal foreign exchange intervention (FXI) policy in response to the Dutch disease at least in the short run. The optimal FXI policy when the monetary authority has incomplete information on the persistence of an oil price shock; that is, whether it is a temporary or a permanent shock, would be a sustained accumulation of reserves (preferably beyond 5 quarters) to lean against appreciation pressures on the real exchange rate and prevent the decline of manufacturing output. Also, the results show that conventional monetary policy outperforms central bank intervention over the entire period adopted (from 1983Q1 to 2020Q4) but was outperformed by foreign exchange intervention when a sub-sample analysis was performed (for 1998Q1 to 2020Q4). This reflects the impact of the practice of Central Banks in developing economies that began accumulating reserves actively in the early 2000s. There is, however, a need for better coordination between both policy instruments in dealing with the Dutch disease episode.

Macro-financial policies under a managed float: A simple integrated framework

A simple integrated macroeconomic model of a small, bank-dependent open economy with a managed float and financial frictions is used to study the effects of five types of policy instruments: fiscal policy, monetary policy, macroprudential regulation, foreign exchange intervention, and capital controls. The paper also considers how, following a drop in the world interest rate, these instruments can be combined to restore the initial equilibrium. The analysis illustrates, using simple diagrams, how macro-financial policies can complement each other to manage capital inflows.In particular, it demonstrates that, to stabilize the economy, whether the response of monetary policy should be contractionary (a common prescription in practice)or expansionary depends on which other instruments are available to policymakers. The joint use of macroprudential regulation and temporary capital controls is also shown to provide, in response to external financial shocks, a potent policy combination.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the exchange rate: a lesson learned from Indonesia

This paper aims to capture the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and the exchange rate. We utilized high-frequency data by utilizing daily data from January 21st, 2020, through June 29th, 2022. In contrast to the vast majority of research that disregards the incubation period of COVID-19 in the number of daily transmission cases, we use the growth of COVID-19 as a 14-day moving average of confirmed cases as the main independent variables. Findings indicate that the devaluation of the rupiah exchange rate is long-term associated with the increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths. According to the efficient market hypothesis, the rupiah depreciates due to the increase of COVID-19 transmission, which is publicized by the media. In the midst of the debate over the impact of the pandemic on the exchange rate and using Indonesia as a lesson learned for emerging market economies, our research is a recent study that examines this topic with completed data-generating processes – when the pandemic entered its last wave phase. In regard to exchange rate behavior, the disease outbreak channel exists. The government must restrict widespread media coverage of data on the spread of COVID-19 while focusing on accelerating measures to control the pandemic. A low-interest rate imposed by the monetary authorities as an effort to stimulate economic recovery can also exert pressure on the exchange rate, necessitating the optimization of other instruments, such as foreign exchange intervention.

International capital flow pressures and global factors

The risk sensitivity of international capital flow pressures is explored using a new Exchange Market Pressure index that combines pressures observed in exchange rate adjustments with model-based estimates of incipient pressures that are masked by foreign exchange interventions and policy rate adjustments. The sensitivity of capital flow pressures to risk sentiment evolves over time, varies significantly across countries, and differs between normal times and extreme stress events. Across countries, risk sensitivities and safe haven status are associated with self-fulfilling exchange rate expectations and carry trade funding currencies. In contrast, current indicators of a safe macroeconomic profile are only weakly associated with safe haven status.

Quantitative easing in the US and financial cycles in emerging markets

Large international capital movements tend to be associated with strong fluctuations in asset prices and credit, contributing to domestic financial cycles and posing challenges for stabilization policies, especially in emerging market economies. In this paper we argue that these challenges are particularly severe if the global financial cycle is driven by quantitative easing (QE) in the US, and when the local banking sector has large holdings of government bonds, like in many Latin American (LA) countries. We first investigate empirically the impact of a typical round of QE by the US Fed on LA economies, finding a persistent expansion in credit to households and house prices, as well as a significant loss of price competitiveness. We next develop a quantitative macroeconomic model of a small open economy with segmented asset markets and banks, which accounts for these observations. In this framework, foreign QE creates tensions between macroeconomic and financial stability as a contractionary impact of exchange rate appreciation is accompanied by booming credit and house prices. As a consequence, conventional monetary policy accommodation aimed at stabilizing output and inflation would further exacerbate domestic financial cycle. We show that an effective way of resolving this trade-off is to impose measures that directly reduce the inflow of capital. Combining foreign exchange interventions with tightening of local credit policies can also restore macroeconomic and financial stability, but at the expense of a large redistribution of wealth between borrowers and savers.

The portfolio balance channel of capital flows and foreign exchange intervention in a small open economy

In this paper we extend a new Keynesian small open economy model with a segmented financial market featuring financial intermediaries as in Itskhoki and Mukhin (2021). The former ingredients generate deviations from the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition. More precisely, the portfolio decisions of financial intermediaries add a time varying risk-premium element to the traditional UIP that depends on foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and FX orders by foreign investors. We present closed form solutions for optimal FXI. Additionally, we analyse the effectiveness of different FXI rules commonly discussed across policymakers. Our findings are as follows: (i) FXI rules can improve welfare in presence of the portfolio balance channel; (ii) under a general parametrization, fundamental shocks can trigger an inefficient path for the exchange rate; (iii) optimal policy calls for leaning against the wind to portfolio flow shocks and leaning with the wind to fundamental shocks; (iv) the effectiveness of FXI rules depends on the frequency and nature of the shocks and parameters characterizing the economy.

Fiskální deficit a emise peněz v České republice v době pandemie covidu-19

The public finances of the Czech Republic fell into deep deficits during the pandemic, while the money supply growth rate accelerated. We make a basic comparison of monetary acceleration during the first two years of the pandemic with other countries. We verify that this acceleration in the Czech Republic was partly due to commercial banks increasing credit to the government. We argue that purchases of government bonds by non-residents have a similar effect. This is particularly true when non-residents use existing koruna deposits held by them, partly as a result of past foreign exchange interventions, to purchase government bonds. While there was an acceleration in monetary growth during the pandemic, there was a decline in monetary growth during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). However, our analysis suggests that this was due mainly to a decline in private credit growth during the GFC. We see no fundamental reasons for a structural change in money demand as a result of the pandemic. We therefore believe that unless the observed monetary acceleration is offset by slower-than-trend monetary growth in the near term, it will translate into an increase in the price level.

Global financial cycle and liquidity management

We use a tractable model to show that emerging markets can protect themselves from the global financial cycle by expanding (rather than restricting) capital flows. This involves accumulating foreign liquid assets when global liquidity is high to then buy back domestic assets at a discount when global financial conditions tighten. Since the private sector does not internalize how this buffering mechanism reduces international borrowing costs, a social planner increases the size of capital flows relative to the laissez-faire equilibrium. The model also shows that foreign exchange interventions may be preferable to capital controls in less financially developed countries.