Foreign Equity Flows Research Articles

Bayesian analysis of time-varying interactions between stock returns and foreign equity flows

This study discusses the trading behavior of foreign investors with respect to economic uncertainty in the South Korean stock market from a time-varying perspective. We employ a news-based measure of economic uncertainty along with the model of time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility. The empirical analysis reveals several new findings about foreign investors’ trading behaviors. First, we find evidence that positive feedback trading often appears during periods of high economic uncertainty, whereas negative feedback trading is exclusively observable during periods of low economic uncertainty. Second, the foreign investors’ feedback trading appears mostly to be well-timed and often leads the time-varying economic uncertainty except in periods of global crises. Third, lagged negative (positive) response of net flows to economic uncertainty is found to be coupled with lagged positive (negative) feedback trading. Fourth, the study documents an asymmetric response of foreign investors with regard to negative and positive shocks of economic uncertainty. Specifically, we find that they instantly turn to positive feedback trading after a negative contemporaneous response of net flows to shocks of economic uncertainty. In contrast, they move slowly toward negative feedback trading after a positive response of net flows to uncertainty shocks.

Do Lower Foreign Flows and Higher Domestic Flows Reduce Indian Equity Market Volatility?

This study examines the relationship that both domestic and foreign institutional net equity flows have with the India stock markets. The motivation behind is the study to examine whether increased net equity investments from domestic institutional investors has reduced the influence of foreign equity flows on the Indian stock market volatility. Our results indicate that only during periods in which domestic equity inflows surpass foreign flows by a significant margin, as seen during 2015–2018, is the Indian stock market volatility not significantly influenced by foreign equity investments. However, during periods of re-emergence of strong foreign net inflows, the Indian market volatility is still being impacted significantly, as has been observed since 2019. Furthermore, we find that both large-scale net buying and net selling by domestic funds increased the stock market volatility as observed during 2015–2018 and COVID-impacted year 2020 respectively. The implications of this study are multi-fold. First, the regulators should discuss with industry bodies before enforcing major structural changes like reconstituting of mutual fund investment mandate in 2017 which forced domestic funds to quickly change portfolio allocation amongst large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap stocks resulting in higher stock market volatility. Second, adequate investor educational and awareness programmes need to be conducted regularly for retail investors to minimize herd behaviour of investing during market rise and heavy redemptions at times of fall. Third, the economic policies should be stable and forward-looking to ensure foreign investors remain attracted to the Indian stock markets at all times.

Foreign equity flows and stock market liquidity in Kenya

In this paper, we explore the dynamic relationship between aggregate foreign equity inflows and aggregate liquidity of the Kenyan stock market using transactional foreign trading data and several l...

Volatility Spillover from Institutional Equity Investments to Indian Volatility Index

The interdependence between stock market volatility and institutional flows in both developed and emerging economies have evolved over the past few decades. While earlier studies have mostly considered historical volatility, this study examines the relationship of both foreign and domestic equity flows with the implied volatility in the Indian stock markets measured by the VIX index. The period of the study is January 2010 to July 2019. We find that the value of net FII flows impacts the fluctuations in the volatility of the Indian stock market. However, the past volatility in FII flows does not impact the fluctuation in the volatility of the Indian stock market. Further, in the case of mutual funds, the value of flows does not significantly impact the fluctuation in Indian stock market volatility, but past volatility in net inflows does. This study can help investors to enhance portfolio return.

The Nexus between Exchange Rate and Foreign Equity Investors Behavior after the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect

Purpose - This paper investigates the causal nexus between the exchange rate and foreign equity investors’ behavior in Shanghai and Hong Kong by using daily time series data after the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme was launched. Design/Methodology/Approach - The empirical data period is a sample of all daily trading data from the implementation of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect to April 12, 2019. In order to analyze the nexus between the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Hong Kong Stock Exchange, we employed the impulse response function analysis based on the vector autoregression (VAR) model. Findings - From estimation results on the Shanghai stock market, we found that exchange rates have not had a significant impact on foreign equity investors. Conversely, foreign equity flows have had a significant impact on exchange rate of the RMB. From estimation results on the Hong Kong stock market, it was found that mainland Chinese investors have not significantly affected the foreign exchange market of Hong Kong. On the other hand, the results show that exchange rates have had a significant impact on mainland Chinese investors in Hong Kong. Research Implications or Originality - In the Shanghai stock market, exchange rates have not had a significant impact on foreign equity investors, which is due to exchange rate risk management by foreign investors. Conversely, a large amount of foreign equity inflows led to the appreciation of the RMB. In the Hong Kong stock market, mainland Chinese investors have not significantly affected the foreign exchange market of Hong Kong, which is due to a limited share of mainland Chinese investment in Hong Kong market capitalization. Conversely, exchange rates have had a significant impact on mainland Chinese investors in Hong Kong, which reveal that mainland Chinese equity flows into Hong Kong increased when the RMB depreciated against the Hong Kong dollar.

Effect of Foreign Equity Gross Purchases on Stock Market Volatility in Kenya : Empirical Evidence from Nairobi Securities Exchange

The main objective of the study was to determine the effect of foreign equity purchases turn-over on the level of volatility at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. The study was twofold as it focused on the effect of foreign equity gross purchases on stock market volatility before and after introducing foreign exchange rate as a moderating variable. The span of the study was eight years from 2008 to 2015 as the period was marked by unprecedented world events such as the global economic recession and the post poll pandemonium in Kenya which subsequently affected foreign equity flows and the volatility in the equity bourse. The research design employed in the study was the causal research design. The target population of the study were the monthly foreign equity gross purchases, monthly Nairobi Securities Exchange 20 share indices and monthly USD Bid-Ask foreign exchange. The study samples in the study were the monthly foreign equity gross purchases, monthly Nairobi Securities Exchange 20 share indices and monthly USD Bid-Ask foreign exchange from May 2008 to December, 2015. Time series secondary data was used in the study. The data was subjected to diagnostic tests such as linearity test, multicollinearity test, normality test, test for homoscedasticity and test for autocorrelation with E-views being the main statistical tool of analysis. The main model used in the study was the vector error correction model subsequent to undertaking stationarity test, lag selection test and cointegration tests. Study results reveal a positive but in-significant effect of foreign equity purchases turn-over on stock market volatility and a negative but in-significant effect after introducing foreign exchange rate as a moderating variable. The study recommends adoption of efficacious cross-border listing rules to spur stock market integration that would subsequently increase foreign investor participation and development of apt financial derivative markets to aid in the mitigation of time-varying foreign currency risks as a consequence of foreign exchange risk exposure.

The non-persistent relationship between foreign equity flows and emerging stock market returns across quantiles

We compare the performance of two state-of-the-art predictive regression methods of IVX-Wald (Kostakis et al., 2015), IVX-Quantile regression (Lee, 2016) with the traditional OLS in examining the relationship between foreign equity flows and emerging stock market returns. By doing so, we take into account not only the potential persistence in foreign equity flows, but also the exceptional behavior of the extreme foreign flow episodes. We find a robust positive relationship between equity flows and contemporaneous stock returns among emerging stock markets (especially in Asia), but little evidence for intertemporal return predictability.

Foreign equity flows: Boon or bane to the liquidity of Malaysian stock market?

This paper examines the impact of gross foreign equity inflows on aggregate liquidity of the Malaysian stock market using newly assembled foreign trading data and the best performing bid-ask spread proxy. Employing vector autoregression, we discover a one-way causality from gross inflows to aggregate liquidity, and foreign investors erode liquidity of the Malaysian stock market. Additional analyses reveal that uncertainties in the U.S. markets negatively affect aggregate liquidity through the flows of foreign institutions, whose positive feedback trading destabilizes the local bourse. Despite the shocks, there is sufficient liquidity provision from local state-backed institutional funds and local proprietary day traders.

Sentiment, foreign equity flows, and returns: Evidence from Thailand’s stock markets

We examine the impact of investor sentiment on returns and foreign equity flows in Thailand’s two equity markets: The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and the Market for Alternative Investment (Mai). Consistent with existing literature, this paper shows that foreign equity flows are forecasted by past returns in both of Thailand’s equity markets. In the more widely followed SET, we find a strong negative impact of global risk aversion on foreign investment flows. In the smaller Mai, sentiment positively impacts foreign equity flows. In addition, we show that sentiment is an important variable for forecasting returns in both markets in Thailand.

Lucas Paradox in the Long-Run

This paper investigates international capital flows to developing countries for the period 1970-2006. The study focuses on the empirical puzzle that although one would expect international capital to flow to capital scarce countries where returns are higher, observation shows that capital flows to richer rather than to poorer countries (the Lucas paradox). To explore this, total capital is measured as the sum of foreign direct investment and portfolio equity flows. The paper addresses the argument, based on cross-section evidence (Alfaro et al., 2008, Rev. Econ. Stats), that including the quality of institutions accounts for the paradox (because richer countries have better institutions they attract more capital) and finds that this only holds if developed countries are included; within developing countries, institutions do not account for the paradox. Hence, for a consistent sample of 47 developing countries the positive wealth bias in international capital flows or the Lucas paradox is shown to be a persistent phenomenon in the long run.

The impact of foreign equity flows on market volatility during politically tranquil and turbulent times: The Egyptian experience

Since the popular uprising of January 2011, a series of momentous events has rocked Egypt’s political order, jeopardising the country’s economic and financial stability. This study examines the role of foreign capital flows in the volatility of the Egyptian equity market, and whether this role has changed due to the recent domestic political unrest. These issues are empirically addressed in the context of GMM estimation. The results suggest that, unlike those of foreign individual investors, trades of foreign institutional investors contribute to market fluctuations, whether prior to or following the January 2011 uprising. Sell trades by foreign individual and institutional investors exert a significant influence on volatility. Further, when volume is split into its anticipated and unanticipated components, the results show that surprises in trading activity by either group tend to exacerbate volatility in periods of calm and turmoil. These findings are broadly insensitive to volatility measures and robust, even after controlling for a variety of relevant determinants of market volatility. The evidence documented in this study provides important implications for policy markers.

How Do Extreme Global Shocks Affect Foreign Portfolio Investment? An Event Study for India

ABSTRACTForeign portfolio flows in and out of India are relevant for policymakers, and are often portrayed in the media as having a destabilizing effect on the domestic market. We use an event study approach to examine whether extreme global shocks trigger abnormal responses in foreign equity flows in and out of India, or abnormal responses in the Indian stock market. We do not find strong evidence of abnormal responses, even for the case of the global crisis of 2008.

Cross-border equity flows and market volatility: the case of Qatar Exchange

Purpose – Extending the extant literature and using Qatar’s equity market as a case study, this paper aims to look into the potential impacts of foreign investor groups’ trading activities on market volatility in comparison with those of Qatar’s domestic investor counterparts. Design/methodology/approach – The dataset is comprised of daily aggregated values of stock purchases and sales made separately by four investor groups, namely, foreign individual investors, foreign institutional investors, domestic individual investors, and domestic institutional investors. An ex post measure of volatility introduced by Rogers and Satchell (1991) is employed. Four proxies for investor trading are considered separately in the analysis. The objective of the study is empirically addressed in the context of the Generalized Method of Moments estimation technique. Findings – In general, there exists substantial contemporaneous price impact associated with foreign equity investment in the Qatari capital market, despite the fact that foreigners’ buy and sell trades are not as large as those of their domestic counterparts. More specifically, foreign institutional sales (purchases) tend to increase (reduce) market volatility. Like those of foreign institutions, the sell trades by foreign individuals have a positive impact on volatility. On the other hand, domestic institutional purchases are significantly negatively related with market volatility, whereas the sell trades by the same category have no impact on volatility. Finally, surprises in foreigners’ trading volumes turn out to be responsible for adding to volatility. Practical implications – Although a sudden reversal of foreign capital flows can pose a real threat to the stability of the Qatari capital market, such capital flows are deemed to be an indispensable vehicle for enhancing the liquidity and efficiency of the market. Accordingly, policy makers in Qatar should overhaul the current foreign investment legislation to make it even more streamlined and better suited to achieving the country’s strategic vision for the market. Foremost in these reforms is relaxing the stringent 25 percent foreign ownership restriction. Such a relaxation process is highly recommended to be phased in only gradually, in order to weigh its pros and cons. In this regard, the authorities concerned should consider embarking on a range of procedures intended to ward off the adverse ramifications of foreign capital outflows. Originality/value – To the author’s best knowledge, no study about the impact of foreign equity flows on domestic markets has been so far conducted using trading data from the Qatari market. This work presents one such attempt.

Foreign Equity Flows and Market Return Linkages: Evidence of Malaysian Stock Market

This study examines the linkages between foreign equity flows and stock market returns of Bursa Malaysia. Specifically this article intends to investigate whether past stock returns influence foreign equity flows or vice versa in a short-term time horizon. To explore the linkages between these two variables, this study employs bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model. In addition, to determine the causal relation between stock returns and foreign equity flows, this study utilizes VAR Granger causality test. The findings of this study provide evidence that foreign institutional investors are momentum traders, while foreign retail investors are contrarian traders with regard to the return of Malaysian equity market. Another main finding is that domestic equity returns have an effect on fund flows of foreign retail investors and vice versa; meanwhile, there is a positive causal relation between domestic equity returns and foreign institutional fund flows.

How Do Extreme Global Shocks Affect Foreign Portfolio Investment? An Event Study for India

Foreign portfolio flows in and out of India are relevant for policymakers, and are often portrayed in the media as having a destabilizing effect on the domestic market. We use an event study approach to examine whether extreme global shocks trigger abnormal responses in foreign equity flows in and out of India, or abnormal responses in the Indian stock market. We do not find strong evidence of abnormal responses, even for the case of the global crisis of 2008.

Equity Market Liberalization, Credit Constraints and Income Inequality

Abstract This paper provides compelling evidence that equity market liberalization, as the most efficient way to smooth financial market frictions such as credit constraints, can alleviate persistent cross-dynastic income inequality by promoting increased human capital accumulation. The authors examine the effect of equity market liberalization on inequality by using data from 72 countries for 1980–2006. Their measured effect is robust to alternative measures of equity market liberalization. Finally, The authors show that foreign equity flows benefit initially lessactive stock markets more than the active ones, providing evidence that foreign equity flows act as a substitute for domestic financial markets. This finding emphasizes the possibility of reducing inequality and poverty through equity market liberalization.

Differential Impact of Foreign Portfolio Flows on Emerging Market Returns: Evidence from Thailand

Using daily series of flows and returns in Thailand during the period January 1995 and December 2012, this study investigates the differential pricing impact of foreign equity flows on two market segments; one consisting of stocks that are favored by foreign investors, and the other that are less favored. Flow betas which measure stock return senstivity to unexpected flows are negative particularly for stocks with high foreign interest. The empirical results reveal that stocks with relatively higher foreign exposure exhibit a lower required rate of return consistent with international risk sharing hypothesis. The differential effect of foreign flows on different segments of the market indicates that the pervasiveness of market liberalization is not equally shared across the local market.

A note on US institutional equity flows to Brazil

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to understand the long‐run dynamics between returns, commodity prices, volatility, and US equity investment into Brazil. This research is prompted by the rapid increase in foreign equity investment into Brazil.Design/methodology/approachTo address long‐run dynamic nature of the variables, multivariate autoregressive model is fitted for the period of January 1998 to May 2008. To achieve identification of this model, restrictions are imposed based on underlying financial theory and the nature of the data.FindingsThe paper finds consistent with a long literature, that US institutional equity investment is forecasted by past returns on the Brazilian stock index (BOVESPA). The paper also documents the important role of commodity prices in forecasting US equity flows to Brazil, a variable that has not been considered in much of existing literature. Finally, the paper uncovers a strong relationship between US equity flows to Brazil and measures of risk. The paper documents that an unexpected shock to US equity flows increases the volatility of the Brazilian equity market beyond what could be predicted by other variables in the system. The strong joint dynamics among US portfolio equity flows and the risk and return of the Brazilian equity market demonstrates the need for policy makers in Brazil to monitor short‐term portfolio flows.Originality/valueThere is a broad literature on the dynamics of US investment in emerging and developed markets but very little work focuses directly on Brazil. Additionally, this work is one of the first to explicitly consider the role of commodity prices on the dynamics of foreign equity flows to resource rich nations.

Equity Market Liberalization, Credit Constraints and Income Inequality

This paper provides compelling evidence that equity market liberalization, the most efficient way to smooth financial market frictions such as credit constraints, can alleviate persistent cross-dynastic income inequality through increasing the accumulation of human capital. We examine the impact of equity market liberalization on inequality by using the data of 72 countries during 1980-2006. The effect is robust to alternative measurements of equity market liberalization. Furthermore, equity market liberalization is associated with the different effects of credit constraints on the persistence of cross-dynastic income inequality. Finally, it is proved that foreign equity flows benefit the initially less active stock markets more than the active ones, which is important evidence that foreign equity flows act as a substitute for the domestic financial market. This finding emphasizes the importance of equity market liberalization for the poor, which helps to reduce inequality.

Volatility and foreign equity flows: evidence from the Philippines

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to dissect the dynamic linkages between foreign equity flows, exchange rates and equity returns in the Philippines.Design/methodology/approachUsing a parsimonious SVARX‐GARCH model and unique daily equity flow data, this research models the relationship between net equity flows, conditional variance of stock returns and conditional variance of exchange rates.FindingsThe authors find several noteworthy results, which are unique to this study and several results that confirm existing literature. Much of existing literature on foreign equity flows into emerging economies find that foreign equity investors are trend chasers and equity flows are auto correlated. The authors confirm these finding in the Philippines and document two new and important findings. First, it was found that unexpected increases in foreign equity flows to the Philippines increases the conditional volatility of the Filipino stock market significantly over the next two weeks of trading. The second major finding is that unexpected shocks to foreign equity flows sharply increases the conditional variance of the USD/PHP exchange rate over the next two to three weeks of trading.Practical implicationsTaken together, the results indicate that foreign equity investment, while providing many benefits for small open economies such as the Philippines, does in the short run increase the conditional variance of both the equity market and exchange rates. Policy makers must weigh the benefits of increased risk sharing and the potential for lower costs of capital with the short‐run potential for increase swings in asset prices.Originality/valueThis paper is one of the only studies of its kind to test the impact of foreign equity flows on the conditional volatility of returns and exchange rates.