Foreign Currency Borrowing Research Articles

Regulating Carry Trades: Evidence from Foreign Currency Borrowing of Corporations in India

Abstract We establish that macroprudential controls limiting capital flows can curb risks arising from foreign currency borrowing by corporates in emerging markets. Firm-level data show that Indian firms tend to issue more foreign currency debt when the interest rate differential between India and the United States is higher. This “carry trade” relationship, however, breaks down once regulators institute more stringent interest rate caps on borrowing; in response, riskier borrowers cut issuance most. Prior to adoption of this macroprudential measure, stock price exposure of issuers to currency risk rises after issuance, as witnessed during the “taper tantrum” episode of 2013; this source of vulnerability is nullified by the measure, as confirmed during the October 2018 oil price shock and the COVID-19 outbreak. We find no evidence of the policy’s efficacy being undermined by leakage or regulatory arbitrage.

Why do Indian exporting firms borrow in foreign currency?

Purpose Since the liberalization policy of 1991, India has focused on export-led growth. However, the performance of international trade remains poor. This study aims to examine the role of credit constraints on the choice of Indian manufacturing firms to borrow in foreign currency. First, it explores the role of export activities in foreign currency borrowing (FCB). Second, it investigates how credit constraints forced these firms for foreign currency loans. Design/methodology/approach The study analysed data from 1,412 firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange in the manufacturing sector, covering the period from 1991 to 2022. A random effects probit model was used to examine the role of credit constraints on FCB, incorporating the influence of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) status and export activities. Additionally, a two-step system-generalized method of moment was used for robustness checks. Findings Export activities significantly influence FCB, with exporting firms showing a higher propensity to borrow foreign currency compared to domestically operating firms because of the increased funding needs of export activities. Larger firms are more likely to secure FCB than MSMEs, benefiting from collateral advantages. MSME exporting firms exhibit a higher tendency to borrow in foreign currency compared to large exporting firms. Research limitations/implications This study focuses on firm-level data and considers only demand-side credit constraints. It does not examine supply-side credit constraints affecting FCB. Social implications This study underscores the credit constraints faced by MSME exporters in the domestic market, leading them to rely on FCB. These insights are valuable for policymakers aiming to reduce MSMEs' dependency on FCB and enhance their export performance. Originality/value The findings highlight that MSME exporting firms are more inclined to borrow in foreign currency than their larger counterparts. This tendency is driven by the credit constraints MSMEs face because of asymmetric information and underdeveloped financial markets, which compel them to seek FCB.

Foreign currency borrowing behaviour of Indian banks: What Matters the Most?

Foreign currency borrowing behaviour of Indian banks: What Matters the Most?

Does foreign currency borrowing make firms vulnerable? Experience of emerging India

The Asian Financial Crisis during the late 1990 s revealed the fault lines of foreign currency loans of corporates. It starkly demonstrated that a combination of semi-pegged exchange rates and unregulated foreign currency borrowing could expose corporates and, subsequently, the entire economy to heightened vulnerability. To mitigate these risks, implementing certain capital account restrictions emerged as a potential remedy. Against this backdrop, this paper investigates the changing contours of vulnerability arising from the rising foreign currency leverage of 818 non-financial corporates in India during 2004–2022. In particular, this paper examines the impact of exchange rate shocks and changes in certain key macroeconomic policy variables on the financial vulnerabilities of these firms. Our findings unequivocally indicate that during exchange rate depreciation, unhedged exposures significantly amplified the vulnerability of Indian firms. While our study centres on India, the overarching conclusions and insights derived from our analysis possess broader ramifications for emerging economies grappling with capital account restrictions. The policy implications of our research underscore the need to proactively strengthen the macroprudential toolkit to address the risks associated with foreign currency borrowing and ensure more robust risk management practices to prevent the buildup of systemic vulnerabilities.

Role of Bank Credit and External Commercial Borrowings in Working Capital Financing: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Firms

Determinants and levels of working capital financing (WCF) in the manufacturing sector have been empirically proven to impact firm profitability across emerging as well as developed nations. With time, firms adjust toward financing their working capital requirement (WCR), although the speed of adjustment, financing constraints, and bargaining power are subject to variations. In this study, we estimate the effect of bank credit and firm foreign currency borrowing on working capital financing with three distinct models for manufacturing firms in India. We examine the relationship between short-term foreign currency borrowings and WCF. Further, we investigate if the internal capital market affects WCF in the form of business group affiliation; lastly, we assess the impact of bank dependency and financial distress on WCF. We conclude that the debt–equity ratio becomes relevant, whereas firm characteristics such as age, size, and asset tangibility become irrelevant. Our original contribution to the literature is the finding that even smaller emerging market firms with well-managed, low debt exposure have improved access to WCF. Our results support that financial distress negatively impacts WCF but deviates from macroeconomic fundamentals, such as the GDP growth rate. This indicates deterioration in the health of Indian manufacturing, as a capital-intensive sector. Bank dependency remains significant, wherein smaller firms and those without a dividend pay-out continue to have longer cash conversion cycles and less efficient WCR. As a unique finding, we note foreign currency borrowings significantly contribute to WCF in the case of less developed credit markets in emerging economies such as India.

Foreign currency borrowing, balance sheet shocks, and real outcomes

This paper uses a unique dataset and improved identification to uncover several new aspects of foreign currency (FX) balance sheet shocks. First, shocked firms see a contraction in their FX loan borrowing, but large firms are able to replace the lost borrowing with local currency loans. Second, the cost of borrowing in FX increases for these firms, contributing to the shift away from FX credit. Third, larger banks are less sensitive in their FX lending to such shocks to their individual borrowers. Fourth, there are no real effects for large firms, but small firms see lower credit and profits, and decrease investment and employment of hourly workers.

Foreign currency borrowing and risk exposure of firms: An emerging market economy viewpoint

Foreign currency borrowings by emerging market corporations have increased significantly post-global financial crisis. Extant literature has mainly focussed on the flow of foreign currency borrowings, and policies which control the volatility of the flow of the foreign currency borrowings. In this paper, we emphasize the stock of the foreign currency borrowings in the balance sheet of a firm instead of the flow of the foreign currency borrowings, and show the ineffectiveness of policies focused on controlling the flow of foreign currency borrowings. We use the data of non-financial Indian firms listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange. Our analysis show the fallacy of a policy focussed on controlling the flow of foreign currency borrowings. Despite policies which control the flow of the foreign currency borrowings, if a firm has a high stock of foreign currency borrowings in their balance sheet then the financial risk associated with the firm increases. A possible implication of our results is that too much foreign currency borrowings may pile up the risk in the financial system which may become a cause of concern.

The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment

We provide evidence of a new channel of how exchange rates affect trade. Using a novel identification strategy that exploits firms' foreign currency debt maturity structure in Colombia around a large depreciation, we show that firms experiencing a stronger debt revaluation of dominant currency debt due to a home currency depreciation compress imports relatively more while exports are unaffected. Dominant currency financing does not lead to an import compression for firms that export, hold foreign currency assets, or are active in the foreign exchange derivatives markets, as they are all hedged against a revaluation of their debt. These findings can be rationalized through the prism of a model with costly state verification and foreign currency borrowing. Dominant currency pricing mutes the effects of dominant currency financing on imports relative to producer currency pricing.

Foreign Currency Borrowing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence from Korean Exports

Foreign Currency Borrowing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence from Korean Exports

Estimated policy rules for capital controls

Are capital controls macroprudential or mercantilist? I explore this question using a novel, weekly dataset on policy actions in 21 emerging-market economies (EMEs) from 2001 to 2015, and a new proxy for mercantilist motivations: the weighted appreciation of a country’s currency against those of its trade competitors. Capital controls arebothmercantilist and macroprudential. Moreover, the choice of instruments is systematic: policymakers use two instruments—inflow tightening and outflow easing—to respond to mercantilist concerns, while using only inflow tightening in response to macroprudential concerns. Inflow tightening is countercyclical to bank credit to GDP gap but acyclical to the specific macroprudential concerns related to external or foreign currency borrowing. However,high level of some types of foreign debt reduces countercyclicality to mercantilist concerns. Higher exchange rate pass-through to export prices, and inflation targeting regime with managed exchange rates, increase countercyclicality to mercantilist concerns.

Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics

Abstract This article develops a heterogeneous firm-dynamics model to jointly study firms’ currency debt composition and investment choices. In our model, foreign currency borrowing arises from a dynamic trade-off between exposure to currency risk and growth. The model endogenously generates selection of productive firms into foreign currency borrowing. Among them, firms with high marginal product of capital use foreign loans more intensively. We assess econometrically the model’s predicted pattern of foreign currency borrowing using firm-level census data from the deregulation of these loans in Hungary, calibrate the model, and quantify the aggregate impact of this financing. Our counterfactual exercises show that understanding the characteristics of firms borrowing in foreign currency is critical to assess the aggregate consequences of this financing.

Optimal exchange-rate policy under collateral constraints and wage rigidity

This paper studies the conduct of monetary policy in economies with currency mismatch. To this end, I build a model that embeds financial frictions from households' collateralized borrowing in foreign currency into an open-economy Keynesian framework. The monetary authority faces a trade-off between traditional unemployment stabilization gains from currency depreciation and its costs in terms of generating debt deflation and tightening households' ability to borrow. The optimal policy under this trade-off results in macroeconomic patterns aligned with those observed in emerging-markets data, including large currency depreciation and consumption adjustments during crises. The optimal degree of “fear of floating” depends on the level of indebtedness with which the economy arrives to a crisis and on the type of experienced by the economy.

Countercyclical Foreign Currency Borrowing: Eurozone Firms in 2007–09

AbstractUsing syndicated loan‐level data, we document and explain the causes and implications of a new and surprising stylized fact. In the midst of the financial crisis, dollar borrowing by leveraged Eurozone (EZ) corporates rose dramatically relative to their euro borrowing. We show that this resulted from a shift from EZ to non‐EZ banks, mainly U.S. banks. This was combined with an increase in the proportion of dollar lending by non‐EZ banks, explained by a rise in the relative cost of euro wholesale funding and the disruptions in the FX swap market. Non‐EZ banks thus dampened the 2007–09 credit crunch in Europe.

Costs and benefits of government borrowing in foreign currency: is it a major source of risk for EU member states outside the Euro?

This paper discusses the costs and benefits of government borrowing in foreign currency. In addition to the main costs, such as increased exposure of public finances to currency risk and rollover risk, and limited capacity to respond to financial crisis, this paper identifies two benefits of foreign currency borrowing that are most evident in emerging market countries. The paper also explores to what extent governments of non-euro area EU member states rely on foreign currency borrowing. The analysis suggests that public finances of these countries are not heavily exposed to currency risk. Exceptions to this are Bulgaria and Croatia, whose government debt consists mainly of euro-denominated liabilities, and which also stand out with high loan and deposit euroization. It is therefore not surprising that Bulgaria and Croatia are the first among the remaining non-euro area EU member states to take concrete steps towards the introduction of the euro.

Foreign Currency Borrowing and Risk Exposure of Firms: An Emerging Market Economy Viewpoint

Foreign currency borrowings by emerging market corporations have increased significantly in the post-global financial crisis. Extant literature has mainly focused on the cause of the increase in foreign currency borrowings. In this paper, we study the consequences of the increase in foreign currency borrowings. We examine the role that foreign currency borrowings play in transmitting the risks associated with changes in global credit market conditions and currency mismatch risk to the domestic firms. We use the data of non-financial Indian firms listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange to do our analysis. We find that foreign currency borrowings increase the risk exposure of the firms. Furthermore, foreign currency borrowings play a crucial role in transmitting global credit liquidity risk and currency risk to domestic firms. Overall, our results indicate that too much foreign currency borrowings may pile risk in the financial system that may become a cause of concern.

The role of public credit in the economic development of Ukraine

Purpose. The main aim of the article is defining the essence of public credit, as well as analysis of the role of public credit in the economic development of Ukraine. Methodology of research. A set of general scientific research methods is used to achieve the defined goal and objectives, thanks to which the scientific literature on the topic of scientific research is generalized. Thus, generalization methods are used to substantiate the concept of “public credit”. The system approach allowed to investigate the essence of the concept of the sign and features of the concept of “public credit”. Methods of analysis and synthesis are used to determine the dynamics of government borrowing, including domestic government bonds, as well as to assess the positive and negative significance of public credit for the economies of Ukraine. Findings. Peculiarities and essence of state credit are investigated. Based on the fact that the modern financial policy of Ukraine determines the objective need to use government borrowing, in a market economy, the institution of public credit is becoming increasingly important in the financial system of the country. The dynamics of government borrowing volumes, in particular, the dynamics of domestic government bond volumes are analysed. It is established that during the period under study in this form of raising funds were the largest, which is due to large-scale renewal of the banking system of Ukraine; the vast majority of government borrowings were short-term and carried out for a period of one to three years. The reduction of government borrowing in foreign currency was facilitated by the deterioration of the investment climate in the country due to the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. The expediency of using a state loan and the negative impact of this on the economy of Ukraine are outlined. Originality. Recommendations for the rational use of public credit resources for their most effective use are developed in the article. Practical value. The results of the study can be used to develop a program of optimal and rational use of government borrowing with maximum benefit. Key words: state credit, borrowing, domestic government bonds, yield.

Why did the United States Evolve from the Largest International Creditor in 1980 to the Largest International Debtor in 1990?

Remarkable transformation of the U.S. international investment position occurred over the last 40 years. U.S. net foreign assets were larger than combined net foreign assets of all other creditors. By 1990, foreign-owned U.S. securities and real assets were larger than U.S. owned foreign securities and assets. This change occurred without the U.S. Treasury borrowing in foreign currency and few U.S. firms borrowing, reflecting a surge in foreign purchases of U.S. securities. Inferences from the currency composition of portfolio changes of those who acquired U.S. dollar securities suggest that foreign savers took the initiative on cross-border investment inflows. The U.S. could not have developed a larger capital account surplus after 1980 unless a similar increase in the U.S. current account deficit occurred. The primary factor that led to the U.S. current account deficit increase was the surge in U.S. stocks and other asset prices, resulting in a U.S. household wealth surge and consumption boom. The foreign saving inflow displaced domestic saving. In addition, an increase in the price of the U.S. dollar led to expenditure-switching from U.S. goods to increasingly less expensive foreign goods. When investor demand for U.S. dollar securities declined, the U.S. dollar price fell in 1992, 2002, and 2020 and the price of U.S. dollar securities declined. The paper discusses the source of the change in the U.S. international investment position, the flow of foreign saving to the U.S., cyclical variability in the foreign saving flow to the U.S., and the potential impact of an adjustable parity arrangement.

Foreign Currency Borrowing of Corporations as Carry Trades: Evidence from India

We establish that macroprudential controls limiting capital flows can curb risks arising from foreign currency borrowing by corporates in emerging markets. Firm-level data show that Indian firms issue more foreign currency debt when the interest rate differential between India and the United States is higher. This "carry trade" relationship breaks down once regulators institute more stringent interest rate caps on borrowing; riskier borrowers cut issuance the most. Stock price exposure of issuers to currency risk rises after issuance, a source of vulnerability during the "taper tantrum" episode of 2013, which macroprudential controls subsequently nullified, as confirmed during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Why are countries’ asset portfolios exposed to nominal exchange rates?

Most countries hold large gross asset positions, lending in their domestic currency and borrowing in foreign currency. As a result, their balance sheets are exposed to nominal exchange rate movements. We argue that when asset markets are incomplete, this exposure provides partial insurance against shocks that move exchange rates. We demonstrate that this insurance motive can simultaneously generate realistic gross asset positions and resolve the Backus-Smith puzzle: that countries’ relative consumption and real exchange rates are negatively correlated. Local perturbation methods are inaccurate in this setting as they approximate around the wrong interest rate, even when they correctly characterize the average portfolio holdings. So to accurately solve the equilibrium portfolio problem, we extend Maliar and Maliar (2015)’s global projection method.

Foreign currency borrowing and firm financing constraints in emerging markets: evidence from India

PurposeFirst, the purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between foreign-currency debt and firms' financing constraints for India, the second-largest emerging market economy after China. Second, this study provides insights into how firms' financing constraints evolve prior to, during and after foreign currency borrowing. Third, it demonstrates the extent to which banks' ownership status and firms' characteristics influence the relationship between foreign currency borrowing and firms' financing constraints.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses detailed balance sheet data for 2,512 nonfinancial listed firms in India for the 1996–2016 period to provide new evidence on the relationship between foreign currency borrowing and firms' financing constraints. This study uses a well-known measure of firms' financing constraints, the sensitivity of investment to internal cash flows (Fazzari et al., 1988, 2000; Hubbard, 1999; Love, 2003).FindingsFinancing constraints tend to be higher for firms with foreign currency debt exposure compared to other firms. Financing constraints are higher prior to new foreign currency borrowing (FCB), but decrease subsequently. Firms that have relationships with privately owned banks or foreign banks have higher financing constraints when undertaking new FCB than those with exclusive relationships with government-owned banks. Financing constraints for firms with FCB are higher during domestic credit booms than other periods. Nonmanufacturing firms and those with lower than median export revenues and higher than median tangible assets experience greater financing constraints compared to other firms when they undertake FCB.Originality/valueThe findings of this study suggest that although firms which borrow in foreign currencies are initially more financially constrained than other firms, the foreign currency borrowing reduces their financing constraints. The findings on how global and domestic macroeconomic conditions and firm-specific characteristics influence the relationship between financing constraints and foreign currency borrowing can provide directions for policy to better leverage the benefits of international financial integration.