Source Of Food Supply Research Articles

Development of food sharing online networks for sustainability: Consumer perspectives on food security and sharing

PurposeSharing food through online communities is an effective channel for quickly exchanging edible food, avoiding food waste and promoting environmental sustainability. This study explores how the different characteristics of food sharing platforms influence consumers' perceptions of food safety, attitudes and intentions to engage in sharing activities.Design/methodology/approachIn-depth interviews are first used to identify the key platform mechanisms that consumers pay attention to. A 2 (protection rules) × 2 (food supply sources) × 2 (transaction volume) factorial between-subjects experiment is used to design 8 scenarios in the literal description. This study finally collects a total of 604 valid samples through a web-based questionnaire to test the hypotheses after conducting manipulation checks, reliability and validity.FindingsThe results of this study show that the three variables of protection rules, food supply sources and transaction volume are the most important among all factors and have different levels of effects in reducing consumers' perceived lack of safety of food shared on online platforms and in improving positive attitudes and behavioral intentions. A moderating role in improving consumers' perceptions, food knowledge and cooking techniques, is also demonstrated.Originality/valueThe findings of this study make a significant contribution to the literature, which lacks research on the influence of food (un) safety on consumer perceptions through platform mechanisms in non-Western countries, as digital technology platforms can effectively connect food providers and recipients. Some practical implications for consumers regarding wasting and sharing food are also provided.

Strategies for promoting sustainable aquaculture in arid and semi-arid areas – A review

Abstract Starvation and malnutrition are one of the most destructive problems faced by the poor and needy in the world. With the world population expected to increase by 9.7 billion by 2050, there are growing concerns about the long-term sustainability of many existing food production systems to meet future needs for food. Aquaculture is one of the important sources of food supply, the development of which is of great importance as an important weapon in the global fight against malnutrition and poverty, especially in developing countries and arid and semi-arid regions of the world. In recent decades, aquaculture has dominated all sectors of livestock production in terms of growth and increasingly contributes to food security, poverty reduction, job creation and sources of income. It is important to follow sustainable development goals to increase aquaculture production. Climate change is currently affecting food security through increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Food security is a global concern and access to affordable, nutritious, safe and properly cultivated food is one of the most important issues globally. The main emphasis in the development of aquaculture in arid and semi-arid areas is the use of new technologies based on water saving, such as biofloc technology (BFT), integrated multi-trophic aquaculture system (IMTA) and recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS). In this study, the importance of aquaculture as a sustainable source of food production in arid and semi-arid regions is discussed.

Aquaculture production and diversification: What causes what?

Aquaculture, an important source of food supply, is expected to be the main sector to satisfy growing seafood demand in the future. Being the most diversified food product in the world, aquaculture diversification can add resilience to global food security, satisfy consumer preferences, and promote price stability. Understanding the relationships between aquaculture production and diversification and their causations is crucial for developing effective strategies to support long-term sustainability and resilience of aquaculture development. This study investigates the direction of causal relationships between aquaculture production and diversification using a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model with three decades of aquaculture production data and the Effective Number of Species (ENS) values by country. Diversification is measured in terms of within-group diversity (ENSα) and between-group diversity (ENSβ); this approach provides deeper insights into diversification strategies. The model results show that between-group diversification is more conducive to production expansion globally, especially in the Americas and Asia, and the positive effects are long lasting. Within-group diversification also induces more production in Europe and, to a lesser extent, in Asia. Therefore, policies and market incentives that promote diversification across different species groups in the Americas and Asia, and diversification within the same species group in Europe and Asia, are potential strategies to expand aquaculture production. Other findings include production leading within-group diversification in Asia and Europe, but not in the Americas and Africa. A possible explanation is that production expansion would accumulate experience, develop scope economies and emerging technologies, and build up capacities. These factors generate spillover effects that facilitate species diversification, considering that Asia and Europe have a longer history of aquaculture development compared to the Americas and Africa. However, no significant relationship is found indicating production leading between-group diversification.

Nutrition Environment Gaps and Distribution Challenges in Rural Food Pantries During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Mixed-Methods Study

BackgroundFood insecurity disproportionately affects low-income, racially marginalized, and rural communities. The COVID-19 pandemic led to higher demand for emergency food distribution, potentially impacting food pantry operations and services. Limited research exists assessing consumer nutrition environments of pantries in rural regions. ObjectivesTo assess the consumer nutrition environment of rural food pantries and report challenges and adaptations encountered during the pandemic. DesignA mixed-methods, cross-sectional survey. Participants/SettingNineteen food pantry representatives from California’s San Joaquin Valley were surveyed between August 2020 and June 2021. Representatives were eligible if their pantry served the general population and was open at least once a week. Nine were church-based pantries, and 10 were from other settings. Main outcome measuresThe Nutrition Environment Food Pantry Assessment Tool (NEFPAT) measured the nutrition food environment and scored pantries as bronze (0–15), silver (16–31), or gold (32–47) categories. Eleven items were developed to explore pandemic-related challenges. Statistical analyses performedIndependent χ2 tests assessed the relationship between the organization type and NEFPAT scores and food supply sources. Fisher’s exact test explored associations between food pantry type, NEFPAT category, and challenges. Nonparametric tests were run on non-normally distributed data. Inductive content analysis was used to examine open-ended pandemic-related questions. ResultsThe nutrition environment of most pantries was suboptimal, because no pantry scored in the “gold” category based on total NEFPAT scores (median, 18 of 47). No statistically significant differences were found in the NEFPAT scores by organization type. Most pantries did not provide healthy food nudges or culturally diverse foods. Key COVID-19 challenges encountered consisted of supply- and demand-side issues, including reduced personnel, capacity, and resources, and increased client quantity and demand for food. ConclusionsAssessing the nutrition environment of rural food pantries revealed gaps and strategies for improvement, including the use of healthy nudges and increasing the availability of culturally diverse foods.

HARNESSING SUSTAINABLE NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY THROUGH INTEGRATED AGRO-TAKAFUL FRAMEWORK IN MALAYSIA

Agriculture is a crucial economic sector to generate income and supply food resources for a country. The agriculture sector contributes 7.1 per cent (RM101.5 billion) to Malaysia Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and provides 10.5 per cent (1,566.0 thousand) jobs in 2021. However, the agro-food agriculture sector is exposed to many risks due to disasters caused by climate change, diseases, and pest attacks. It is estimated that the loss suffered by the agro-food sector is around RM90.6 million due to the flood incidents that hit several states in recent years. This condition is quite concerning because it leads to the destruction of livestock and crops, which will have an impact on farmers' income. In the long run, this may have an impact on the assurance of national food security as well as the occurrence of poverty. Until now, there hasn't been a national takaful programme that safeguards the rice agro-food sector as the primary source of food supply in Malaysia. The takaful scheme is believed to have the potential to provide social security guarantees in the form of income protection for rice farmers and further ensure the national food supply. This study employs document analysis of article journals, internet sources and policy documents to understand the current state of Malaysia’s takaful business in addressing agriculture risks. It is also important to explore the understanding of the rice farmers in Malaysia on the agriculture takaful. The novelty of this study is to explore the potential of introducing a blended financing mechanism of Islamic social finance (ISF) on the existing takaful business structure to establish a viable agriculture takaful framework based on the principle of ta’awun (cooperation) that can secure farmers' income more sustainably as well as preserve the national food security.

ROLE OF WILD EDIBLE FRUITS USED BY THE TRIBALS FROM SHAHPUR TALUKA OF THANE DISTRICT

Objectives: The objectives of this study were as follows: (1) The present study deals with the identification, ethno botanical exploration, and documentation of plant species that deal with wild edible fruits with respect to food and medicinal value. (2) Documentation of the medicinal value of wild edible fruits was done through discussion with local medicine men and Vaidus. Methods: The ethno botanical survey was carried out in Shahpur Taluka of Thane District from June 2021 to January 2023. The data were collected through discussions and interviews with experienced people and traditional healers. The data on wild edible fruits were collected using preparation of questionnaire in the local language and group discussions. Voucher specimens were collected during the walk with informants. The collected plants were identified using standard floras. Results: From Shahpur Taluka of Thane district, a total of 40 wild edible fruit plants belonging to 25 families have been documented. Wild edible plants play an important role in the lives of rural populations in every aspect, such as supplemented food, nutritionally balanced diets, medicine, fruits, and fodder, along with their daily income potential. Among different parts of plant species, fruits are more consumed by the tribals. Thane district is rich in indigenous plants that have been explored for their nutritional and medicinal values, and that’s why it is necessary to conserve the biodiversity, which could help to maintain and improve the source of food supply for the inhabitants. Conclusion: The present work documented 40 wild edible fruit plants. Out of these, most of the plants have medicinal value. Further investigation of their phytochemical and nutraceutical studies may provide better nutritional and medicinal sources in the future.

New online market connecting Chinese consumers and small farms to improve food safety and environment

AbstractIn emerging economies where small farms are the main source of food supply, it is costly for the government to monitor and control food safety and production impact on the environment. However, the online food market can potentially give farmers stronger incentives to supply safer and more eco‐friendly products, as they can access a national market where consumers are interested in healthy food, and they can differentiate their products by providing production information using videos and pictures. This research uses the choice experiment method to elicit farmers’ preference for production practices and marketing channels in China where e‐commerce and delivery businesses are fast‐growing. Our main finding is that farmers perceive higher utility in selling safer and more eco‐friendly products than conventional products when using e‐commerce platforms, evidence of the online market's positive role in food safety enhancement. Our results also identify two types of farmers: traditional farmers and farmers open to the idea of online markets. Farmers who have higher education and live in villages with e‐commerce service centers are more likely to be the latter.

SOIL CLASSIFICATION AND CROP SUGGESTION USING MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHM

Agriculture is the basic source of food supply in all the countries of the world. In this system, proposed a method which would help suggest the most suitable crop(s) for a specific land based on the analysis of the data on certain affecting parameters like temperature, humidity, air quality and PH of soil using machine learning. Here used geometric progression for predicting best suited crop in field. A GUI is developed in Python to suggest a crop which can be grown in farm according to condition of farm. Geometric progression algorithm is used for predicting crop. To know the type of soil, in this work we perform descriptive study on agricultural data using various machine learning techniques.

Peningkatan Kesadaran Masyarakat Terhadap Kesehatan Keluarga Melalui Penanaman Tanaman Obat Keluarga

Home gardens have enormous potential and can be used as a source of food supply with nutritional value and high economic value. Programs that can be utilized by the community to improve family welfare in the food sector are by planting family medicinal plants. Family medicinal plants are a collection of plants that are cultivated in the yard. The development and utilization of family medicinal plant cultivation is very necessary to support public health and create a green environment. its activities are carried out in an effort to provide learning experiences or create a condition for community behavior to increase public awareness of family health. The target audience for this health education activity are housewives in Tanjung Anom Village, Giri Mulya District, North Bengkulu Regency.

Current status of greenhouse gas emissions from aquaculture in China

Aquaculture and mariculture are becoming an increasingly important source of food supply in many countries and regions. However, with the expansion of aquaculture and mariculture comes increasing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) which contribute to global warming and climate change. China leads the world in aquaculture and mariculture production, but there are no studies that systematically assess China's overall carbon footprint from these industries. This study quantified GHG emissions from aquaculture and mariculture by four source phases (feed, energy use, nitrous oxide and fertilizers), and then analyzed the carbon footprint of each of these phases for GHG production of nine major species groups over the past ten years to show the spatial distribution of GHG emissions from aquaculture and mariculture in China. Our results showed that the production of feed materials contributed most to the GHG emissions and found that crop energy use, crop land use changes (LUC), fertilizer production, crop nitrous oxide production and rice methane production were the main sources of feed emissions. The total GHG emissions of the nine species groups were 112 ​Mt (109 ​kg) CO2e, the nine species accounting for approximately 86% of aquaculture and mariculture production. GHG emissions of cyprinids had the highest contribution at 47%. Spatial analysis based on our study showed Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangsu and Shandong had the highest GHG emissions of all the provinces in this study, and they accounted for approximately 46% of all emissions. The regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was significantly positively correlated with GHG emissions in every province, with a correlation coefficient higher than 0.6. Our results showed for the first time the relationship between the relative production by species composition and spatial distribution of GHG emissions from aquaculture and mariculture in China. Our findings provide the scientific basis for reduction of GHG emissions within a broader context of expanding aquaculture in the future.

Climate-related hazards and Indian food supply: Assessing the risk using recent historical data

Climate-related hazards can lead to agricultural losses and affect local and wider food supply via food trade. This study estimates the potential for adverse effects of climate hazards on food supply across Indian States and Union Territories (hereafter ‘states’) by quantifying climate hazard risks. Risks were estimated using the most recent data available on hazard presence, vulnerability, and volume of per capita food supply that is exposed to hazards. Historical (2000–2020) climatological and geological data sourced from meteorological stations and satellite imagery were used to estimate the state-level presence of eight climate-related hazards (droughts, forest fires, floods, extreme rainfall, landslides, cyclones, extreme temperatures, sea level rise). For each state and hazard type, we distinguished between risk to food supply produced in the state and the risk to food supply imported from other states. The source of food supply was estimated from a supply and demand balance model for 30 major food items that uses government data from 2011–12. We found that climate hazard risks to food supply vary across states and by hazard type. The largest climate hazard risks to state food supply are in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Assam, where the majority of risk is to locally produced supply. Food supply in each state is at risk to all eight climate hazards via food imports from other Indian states. For 14 states, the climate hazard risk is greater for imported food supply than for locally produced supply. Just five states contribute to more than half of the climate hazard risk in interstate food trade. The findings indicate that climate-related hazards in Indian states could have potentially adverse effects on national food supply, affecting both local production and interstate trade. For policy-makers, these climate hazard risks identify potential priorities for enhancing food system resilience to mitigate impacts on local and national food security.

ОСОБЕННОСТИ И ТЕНДЕНЦИИ РАЗВИТИЯ КОНЪЮНКТУРЫ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОГО РЫНКА РОССИИ

The article considers the current problems of development of the agri-food market in modern Russia. It reveals the factors that determine the change in the ratio of consumption, production and supply in this market during the crisis, downward phases of the thirty-year transformation cycle of the Russian agrarian economy, as well as during the upward recovery phases of this cycle. The reasons leading to a change in the ratio of food production to food imports – the main sources of food supply on the Russian market – are analysed. The changes in the price environment in the agri-food markets of Russia and the world as a result of changes in the balance between consumption and supply dynamics are shown. The study examines changes in the agricultural sector of the economy and the country’s agri-food market in the conditions of the pandemic and the intensification of geo-economic problems and challenges. It is conducted both on the scale of the entire agri-food market and the markets of the main foodstuffs. The first consequences of the sanctions war declared on Russia for the development of the food

Krashignyan: A Farmer Support System

Agriculture is the primary component of the Indian economy. It is the primary source of food supply and is essential to our livelihoods. The majority of Indians rely on agriculture for their employment. Agriculture production declines as a result of unpredictable weather, wrong selection of crops, unbalanced fertilizer use, and a lack of market awareness. Farmers face numerous challenges in traditional farming, and many times, farmers fail to select the appropriate crop for cultivation. Crop growth is affected by a variety of factors such as weather, soil parameters, and fertilizers. A crop recommendation system is proposed in this paper to assist farmers in selecting the appropriate crop based on the location, weather data, crop sowing season, and soil parameter. Various Machine Learning techniques, such as Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Gaussian Naive Bayes, and XGBoost Classifier methods, were used for recommendation. The XGBoost classifier gives the best results with a 97% accuracy, hence the final model was developed using the XGBoost classifier. This system will help farmers in selecting the best crop for their fields while increasing agricultural yield.

A Study on the Impact of Schemes and Programmes of Government of India on Agriculture to Increase Productivity, Profitability, Financial Inclusion, and Welfare of Farmers to Transform them into Modern Society

Purpose: The foremost intent of this research article is to create awareness about various schemes for the productive sector of agriculture. Through this study, the level of performance of these agricultural schemes and programmes were analysed that will be helpful for the attainment of financial inclusion. Hence it is necessary to know about various schemes and their making to connect the beneficiaries. Agriculture is the basic source of food supply, production, processing, promotion and distribution. Agricultural products contribute to Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.) and generate employment in rural areas. They transform the lives of the farmers in modern society. The government of India has introduced Minimum Support Price (MPS), MIF, PMKSY, PMFBY, e-NAM, PM-KISAN, PMJDY, PM-KUSUM, PKVY, NAMS, and MGNREGS. The mobile app KisanSuvidha and innovative programmes like Kisan Rail, KrishiUdaan double the farmers’ Income (DFI). These help in transforming village economy, coverage of irrigation, crop insurance, and stabilizing the income. They also ensure financial support, flow of credit and Direct Benefit transfer of subsidies and funds to beneficiaries. Adopting modern technology, farm-based activity, poultry, dairy, forestry, beekeeping and with the support of SHGs which will directly impact productivity, profitability, financial inclusion, and the welfare of farmers in the 21st century and development of the country’s economy. Design/ methodology/approaches: This study is all about the theoretical concepts based on analysis of various schemes and interconnect. Findings and results: This study reveals that the effectiveness of various agricultural programs and also identifies the benefits and beneficiaries of these schemes. Under this research, various financial services, subsidies, funds released, online platform for agricultural products, funds for micro-irrigation, and so on benefits provided by the government of India were studied. Originality/value: Analysed the various schemes and compelled its beneficiaries and develop a modern to achieve financial inclusion and economic growth through the study. Type of Paper: Research Analysis.

Intelligent Automated Irrigation System Based on Soil Sensors and Weather Forecast Data

There are lots of factors that support the economic development of the country. Agriculture plays a very crucial role in the process of economic development of any country. In this scenario, farmers are principle person which contributes to National Income as well as they are the important source of food supply to the entire nation, irrespective of the developed, undeveloped, or developing nation. Farmers face various problems related to insufficient capital amount, soil erosion, seeds, lack of automation, and irrigation of soil. In this paper, we propose a novel concept of an automatic irrigation system called AGRIDUINO, which will target to solve the problem of lack of automation and irrigation of soil. In the traditional method, farmers have to do manual irrigation of multiple agriculture fields, situated in various geographical areas. In this case, there is a chance of giving excess or less water to plants. A huge amount of water is also wasted. Our Proposed system AGRIDUINO efficiently handles this scenario. The Proposed System efficiently detects water content of the soil (soil moisture), weather, temperature, and forecasting of rain, and based on these parameters our Decision Tree algorithm will predict, whether to make water motor ON or OFF for watering the plants. We present propitious results by applying our proposed technique.

Use of functional units of periphytic protozoa for monitoring water quality in marine ecosystems: bioindicator redundancy.

Although periphytic protozoan communities have long been used for the bioassessment of water quality, their utility is hampered by functional redundancy, leading to high "signal-to-noise" ratios. In this study, a 1-year baseline survey of periphytic protozoan communities was carried out in coastal waters of the Yellow Sea, northern China, in order to determine redundancy levels in conditions of differing water quality. Samples were collected at four sampling sites along a pollution gradient. Environmental variables such as salinity, chemical oxygen demand (COD), and concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO), soluble reactive phosphates (SRP), ammonium nitrogen (NH4-N), and nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N) were measured to compare with biotic factors. A total of 53 functional units (FUs) were identified from 144 observed protozoan species based on four biological traits, i.e., feeding type, body size, movement type, and source of food supply. For reducing the "signal-to-noise" ratios of species-abundance/biomass data, the peeling procedure was used to identify the bioindicator redundancy levels based on these FUs. Three consecutive subsets of response units (RU1-RU3) with correlation coefficients > 0.75 of the full FU dataset were identified, comprising 12 FUs, 21 FUs, and 9 FUs, respectively. Algivores and bacterivores were dominant in RU1 and RU2 among the polluted sites, whereas raptors were dominant in RU3 at the unpolluted site. In terms of relative abundance, RU1 was the primary contributor to the protozoan communities during the 1-year cycle and its relative abundance increased with the increasing pollution, whereas RU2 and RU3, with complementary temporal distributions, generally decreased with increasing pollution. Ordinations based on bootstrapped average analyses revealed a significant variation in the functional pattern of all three RUs among the four sampling sites. Biological-environmental match analysis demonstrated that the variability was driven by the increasing concentrations of nutrients (e.g., NH4-N, NO3-N, and PO4-P) and decreasing concentrations of DO (P < 0.05). There were high levels of functional redundancy among periphytic protozoan communities which could be used as bioindicators of marine water quality.

Phages for Africa: The Potential Benefit and Challenges of Phage Therapy for the Livestock Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa.

One of the world’s fastest-growing human populations is in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), accounting for more than 950 million people, which is approximately 13% of the global population. Livestock farming is vital to SSA as a source of food supply, employment, and income. With this population increase, meeting this demand and the choice for a greater income and dietary options come at a cost and lead to the spread of zoonotic diseases to humans. To control these diseases, farmers have opted to rely heavily on antibiotics more often to prevent disease than for treatment. The constant use of antibiotics causes a selective pressure to build resistant bacteria resulting in the emergence and spread of multi-drug resistant (MDR) organisms in the environment. This necessitates the use of alternatives such as bacteriophages in curbing zoonotic pathogens. This review covers the underlying problems of antibiotic use and resistance associated with livestock farming in SSA, bacteriophages as a suitable alternative, what attributes contribute to making bacteriophages potentially valuable for SSA and recent research on bacteriophages in Africa. Furthermore, other topics discussed include the creation of phage biobanks and the challenges facing this kind of advancement, and the regulatory aspects of phage development in SSA with a focus on Kenya.

Study of Fishery Commodities Cold Chain System at Malang City

Fishery commodity distribution system has not been widely studied. Cold chain system must be applied in fishery product distribution system. The study of the cold chain system will be discussed more in this study using a qualitative descriptive approach. The research was carried out with special research procedures related to the COVID 19 protocol. Qualitative data were taken by means of observations and interviews with respondents from fish mongers in traditional markets, Mlijo traders (mobile vegetable vendors) and consumers. The results showed that traditional markets are the sources of food supply in Malang City. The distribution chain shows that Mlijo traders play a major role in distributing fishery products directly to consumers. Consumers are very dependent on Mlijo traders in terms of purchasing daily food ingredients. The cold chain system has not been implemented well in traditional markets, while the cold chain system has been not applied by Mlijo traders.

Optimal spatial management in a multiuse marine habitat: Balancing fisheries and tourism

Marine fisheries are an important source of food supply and play an important economic role in many regions worldwide. However, due to aggressive fishing practices they are increasingly overexploited. Marine reserves have the potential to alleviate this problem and moreover, they also provide a physical area where an alternative economic activity can exist without being in conflict with fishing gear. Here we explore the idea of combining multiple economic activities in a marine ecosystem, namely: fishing and tourism. We use a model in which the fish population evolves according to a reaction-diffusion partial differential equation, and we consider the interactions between fishing and tourism. We use optimal control theory to find, depending on the model parameters, the optimal management strategy. The results show that, subject to certain conditions, it is possible to have two different revenue streams in the same habitat in contrast with the classical view of competing uses. We also corroborate that marine reserves emerge as the optimal strategy and that the presence of visitors in these areas generates larger profits than if only fishing was considered. Recommendations for Resource Managers • Several economic activities in the same marine ecosystem can be more profitable than single use habitats (e.g., fisheries), and appropriate management can have important consequences for conservation. • Marine reserves have the potential to solve the overexploitation problem in many fisheries, and they provide a physical area where tourism and fishing are not in direct spatial conflict. • Habitat economic and ecological features should be adequately examined when designing a spatial management strategy.

Agricultural Supply Chain Risk Management Under Price and Demand Uncertainty

Agricultural supply chain (ASC) plays a vital role for sustainability as it is the main source of food supply. ASC encounters more sources of risk due to seasonality, perishability, and weather conditions, which makes the global food security system complex. This paper develops an optimization model for a perishable product supply chain to decide the optimal risk management strategy that maximizes the decision maker's expected profit under demand and price uncertainty. A base-case scenario is considered to show the impact of risk management strategy on performance improvement. The expected profit of the decision maker is obtained for different combination of strategies, and sensitivity analysis is performed to show the impact of perishability on the percentage of improvement from the base case scenario. The results show that backup supplier strategy is very effective during the yield disruption, but it is not as effective during harvest disruption. Hence, a single approach is inadequate to provide solution in all types of risk scenarios; thus, the combination of approaches is most effective.