Food Production Index Research Articles

The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on the food security of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The economic and social impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war was the focus of this study, which aimed to assess its effect on the food security of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To achieve its objectives, the study utilized published data, food security index measures, and standard economic analysis. The findings revealed that the Kingdom's food security environment index increased from 58.1% in 2012 to 69.9% in 2022, indicating moderate food security throughout this period. The index was lower than the estimated counterpart for the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries but exceeded the global average (113 countries) by 12.38% in 2022. Furthermore, the study demonstrated that a 10% increase in the estimated food production index and real per capita income led to a 2.72% and 6.55% increase in the food security index, respectively. Conversely, a 10% rise in the estimated consumer price index for foodstuffs resulted in a 1.74% decrease in the food security index. Despite the challenges posed by the Russian-Ukrainian war, the food security index is projected to improve for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, expected to increase from 72.4% in 2024 to 75.6% in 2030, attributed to the country's policy of investing in agriculture abroad and focusing on local agricultural investments such as vertical expansion, protected agriculture, and agricultural practices. This strategic approach ensures high-quality produce and facilitates significant financial surpluses, enhancing the country's capacity to import goods from overseas.

Food security in Nigeria amidst globalization, economic expansion, and population growth: A wavelet coherence and QARDL analysis

Food security is crucial on a global scale as it provides essential health, social, and economic advantages to the human population. Therefore, to achieve the sustainable development goal of zero hunger (Goal 2), it is imperative to assess the progress of food security, particularly in developing countries. Thus, this reflects on the relative factors affecting food security in Nigeria from 1980 to 2022. The study utilized advanced econometrics approaches such as Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) and Wavelet Coherence (WTC) to analyze the data. Food security is measured using the food production index (FPI), while other variables such as globalization (GLOB), population growth (POP), gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of economic growth, and inflation are considered. The results of the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag analysis indicate that in the short-term, globalization has a beneficial impact on FPI at the 0.25 quantile, but it has a detrimental effect on food security at the 0.50 and 0.75 quantiles. Nevertheless, over a prolonged period, the effect is detrimental in all quantiles. Additionally, in the short-term, FPI experiences a beneficial effect from GDP in all quantiles. Over time, GDP has a positive effect on all levels of income distribution. However, in the short-term, the size of the POP has a negative effect on FPI for the 0.25 to 0.75 quantiles. Further discussion is dedicated to policy options and their implications.

Does carbon dioxide emission influence food security in the United States amidst economic expansion, population growth, and inflation? A QARDL and Wavelet Coherence analysis

AbstractFood security is an indispensable concept because human life depends on it. Although numerous studies have examined food security in developing economies, there has been a lack of attention given to this issue in developed countries. Thus, this study investigates the influence of carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) on food security in the United States from 1965 to 2022 using Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) and Wavelet Coherence methods. Food security is proxied by the food production index (FPI), while the control variables are gross domestic product (GDP), population growth (POP), and inflation. The Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag results show that: (i) In the short‐run, CO2 influences FPI positively at the 0.05 quantile, while it harms food security at the 0.50 and 0.95 quantiles. However, in the long‐run, the impact is positive across all quantiles; (ii) In the short‐run, GDP harms FPI at the 0.05 quantile while it benefits FPI at the 0.50 and 0.95 quantiles. In the long‐run, GDP's impact across all quantiles is beneficial; (iii) In the short‐run, POP negatively influences FPI at 0.05 and 0.50 quantiles, while it positively spurs FPI at 0.95 quantiles. In the long‐run, POP positively influences FPI at quantiles of 0.05, whereas it negatively influences FPI at 0.50 and 0.95 quantiles; (iv) inflation positively influences FPI in the short and long‐run across all quantiles; (v) The Wavelet Coherence analysis showed a robust correlation across all frequencies. Policy suggestions and implications are discussed further.

Globalization and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa

The research aimed to assess the impact of globalization and innovation on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) between 2001 and 2021. The study utilized secondary data from the World Development Indicators to analyze the relationship. Food security was measured in terms of accessibility and availability, represented by the “Food Production Index (2014–2016 = 100)” and “Gross Domestic Product per Capita, PPP, Dissemination (constant 2017 international $)” respectively. The research employed a two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to evaluate the data. The results indicated that globalization showed a direct and statistically insignificant influence on food security availability, but it had a negative and significant effect on food security accessibility. On the other hand, innovation had a direct but statistically insignificant effect on food security availability, while it had a positive and significant impact on food security accessibility. The interaction between globalization and innovation had an indirect but significant effect on food security availability and a direct and significant effect on food security accessibility. Additionally, the study found that arable land and population growth significantly influenced the availability aspect of food security, while arable land indirectly affected the accessibility aspect. Population had a direct but statistically insignificant effect on the accessibility measure of food security. Based on these findings, the study recommends that the governments of SSA countries and other stakeholders should adopt and operate integrated policy approaches that captures the diverse effects that globalization has on food security.

Food Security and Biofuels in Latin America and the Caribbean Region: A Data Panel Analysis on Eight Countries

In the short, medium, and long term, a sustainable bioeconomy can help address one of the main concerns of most countries concerning the food crisis, particularly in the Latin American and Caribbean contexts, where food security and the bioeconomy are crucial for the region’s development and sustainability. However, to avoid negative impacts on the environment and food production, all sectors of the bioeconomy, especially those related to biofuel production, must be sustainable and environmentally conscious. This study analyses historical correlations between three dependent variables related to basic concepts of food security and independent variables framed by biofuel production through a panel data study in eight Latin American and Caribbean countries between 2007 and 2021. Of the three econometric models analyzed, two are statistically significant. The first shows a positive correlation between biofuel production and the food production index. The third shows a negative correlation between the percentage of undernourished people and biofuel production. In conclusion, according to the historical data evaluated in the countries studied, the impact of biofuel production on the food security variables analyzed is positive. This positive relationship can be interpreted as an opportunity for the region’s countries to generate additional bio-economic income, taking advantage of the region’s potential and providing new opportunities for producers, especially in rural areas.

Quantifying the effect of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, food production index, and land use on cereal production in South Asia

Cereal grains are widely used as staple foods, therefore ensuring a steady supply of food globally requires cereal production, and South Asia contributes significantly to this endeavor. However, the global food system is thought to be responsible for around one-fourth of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with grain production being a major contributor to this system. With the increasing need for food, especially cereal grains, it is difficult to reduce GHG emissions from food production on limited land. However, the cereal production - land use - agricultural GHG emissions nexus has been disregarded in earlier studies which needs to be identified for the sustainable food production system. Therefore, this research aims to assess the interactions between agricultural GHG emissions, food production index, and land usage on cereal production in South Asia. This study employs the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) model as a baseline model for a panel data set of 1990–2020 and further checks the validity via Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) and robust least square procedure to tackle the endogeneity, serial correlation, and outlier issues. Findings confirm that growing the food production index and land usage boosts cereal grain production in South Asia, whereas rising agricultural CO2 emissions lessen output in the long run. In this paper, we also deploy Dumitrescu and Hurlin's (2012) panel causality test to prove a dual causal connection between the food production index, land use, and cereal food production. From a policy perspective, the findings indicate the necessity of integrating green agro-technology into land cultivation practices in order to achieve increased grain production and mitigate GHG emissions originating from the agricultural sector.

Perception of violence and food security in Emohua Local Government Area of Rivers State, Nigeria

Purpose: This study examined perceptions of violence and food security in the Emohua Local Government Area. Research methodology: A descriptive research design was used. The study population was 862,690, of which a sample size of 400 was obtained using Taro Yamane. A self-designed 37 item questionnaire was used to collect data from the respondents. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics (mean scores and standard deviations). Results: The findings show that loss of life and property, prevalence of stunting growth, underweight and low life expectancy, destruction of farmland, high economic burden on the state economy, malnutrition, reduction of farming activities and low food production index, effects on both physical and mental health, stunted educational development, psychological trauma, underdevelopment, high risk of diseases, reduction in reproductive rate, increase in prices of foodstuffs, and migration are the relationships between violence conflict and food insecurity. Limitations: Biased while filling the questionnaires and lack of freedom of information in the area. Contribution: There could be no food sufficiency with violent conflict in an area.

Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on Food Security in Nigeria

Food production in Nigeria has not matched with the rate of population growth leading to reduction of national food independence and self-reliance. As a result, Nigeria is facing serious food insecurity. Therefore, this research examined the impacts of climate change and population growth on food security in Nigeria. Annual time-series of food security (proxy of food production index), annual rainfall, annual temperature, population growth rate, urban population rate and agricultural land used from 1980 to 2019 were used. The research used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Johansen Cointegration test and Vector Error Correlation Models (VECM) were used to analyze the data. ADF unit root test result shows that all variables were completely stationary at the first different orders I(1) at both at intercept and intercept with trend at level of significance of 1%. Three (3) lags were conclusively selects as the optimum lag in the VAR model. The result of the estimation indicates that the Johansen cointegration shows an existence of long-run relationship among the variables used in the study. The result of the VECM estimation shows that rainfall, temperatures, population growth rate and agricultural land used were negatively significantly related to food security at various levels of significance (1%, 5% and 10%). At the long-run all the variables were adversely related to food security in Nigeria. The coefficient of multiple determinations (R2) indicates about 91%, the adjusted R2 of 0.86 was obtained and Durbin-Watson of 2.1 was obtained which implies that the tools were good fit to estimates the data. Decomposition of variance shows dwindling in food security. The research therefore recommends public enlightenment campaign on birth control; and appropriate climate change adaptation methods should be adopted to enhance food security in Nigeria among others.

Asymmetric effects of climate variability on food security in Morocco: evidence from the nonlinear ARDL model

PurposeThis study aims to examine the asymmetric effects of average temperature (TP) and rainfall (RF) on the Moroccan food security, measured by the food production index (FPI), using annual data from 1961 to 2020.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses the Climate Change and Food Security Framework (CCFS) developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and employs the nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and various econometric techniques to show the effects of climate variability in the short and long-term. It also examines if the impacts on Moroccan food security are asymmetric by analyzing the positive and negative partial sums of mean temperature and rainfall.FindingsThe study shows that RF has a long-term relationship with FPI, with increased RF leading to increased FPI and decreased RF leading to decreased FPI. FPI responds more strongly and persistently to a positive shock in RF than to an adverse shock. The study also identifies an asymmetric relationship between FPI and RF, with increased TP enhancing food output in the long run and a decrease reducing food production in the long run.Research limitations/implicationsThe current study could have some limitations. For instance, there are several other non-climate factors that might potentially impact food security. In particular, CO2 emissions which from the literature is a key variable that represent climate change impact on food security, was not included. The present research has not included those factors mainly because adding more variables to the model reduces the degree of freedom available to estimate the parameters, resulting in inaccurate results.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the food security literature by utilizing the latest asymmetry methodology to decompose climate changes into their positive and negative trends and examining the contrasting impacts food production.

Influence of access to clean fuels and technology, food production index, consumer price index, and income on greenhouse gas emissions from food system: evidence from developed countries.

Sustainable development objectives heavily promote the advancement of cleaner production technologies to reduce emissions and conserve the average world temperature. For the years 1990-2020, the USA, China, Japan, Russia, Germany, and Australia are studied by using the panel fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS). The results show that clean fuels and technologies and a consumer price index are helpful to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from food system which reduce environmental degradation. Contrarily, increased income and food production contribute to environmental deterioration. There are bidirectional Dumitrescu-Hurlin causal relationships between access to clean fuels and technology and greenhouse gas emissions from food system; real income and greenhouse gas emissions from food system; income and access to clean fuels and technology; income and consumer price index; and income and food production index. This research also revealed a unidirectional causation between the consumer price index and greenhouse gas emissions from food system; food production index and greenhouse gas emissions from food system; access to clean fuels and technology and the consumer price index; and access to clean fuels and technology and the food production index. These findings provide policymakers with relevant content: to promote the goal of green growth, the government should implement consistent measures to subsidize the food industry. Incorporating carbon pricing into food system emissions models would serve to lower production of polluting foods, which would enhance air quality indicators. Finally, a consumer price index should be controlled by controlling prices of green technologies in environmental modeling to improve sustainable development globally and reduce environmental pollution.

Modelling of Post-COVID-19 Food Production Index in Nigeria using Box-Jenkins Methodology

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, global food security has been known to be a major threat for developed and developing countries of the world. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, global food security was expected to be at a very high risk due to lockdown across the globe. Consequently, the developing countries, most especially, were expected to experience food shortage challenges. One important way to measure the amount of food production of any country in the world is through the use of a macroeconomic variable known as Food Production Index (FPI). Therefore, this study seeks to examine the post-COVID-19 behaviorof the Nigeria’s FPI using the Box-Jenkins methodology for modelingunivariate time series. A low-frequency time series datasets over 56 years spanning from 1961 to 2016 on Nigerian FPI was extracted from World Bank repository. Pre-tests results from the unit root analyses, correlogram and selection criteria techniques showed that the FPI is a differenced stationary series of order one {I(1)}and that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model best fitted the series. Besides, diagnostic checking of the fitted model confirmed that the error was white noise and forecast of 8 years (2017 to 2024) was made. Findings from the study revealed that the future values of the FPI are erratic and expected to fluctuate (i.e.,rise and fall) within the predicted periods. Conclusively, the fourteen years out sample forecast of FPI for the periods 2017 to 2030 indicates that the gains of FPI in recent years is currently being affected bythe current COVID-19 pandemic. The study recommends that concerted efforts to achieve optimal FPI must be focused on the improvement of inter-regional trade which will result in shorter food chains, and thereby creating more market for farmers and enhancing accessibility to both inputs and outputs

Indonesian Food Production Challenges: Climate, Land and Industrialization

The increase in agricultural production has become a global issue related to food security. Indonesia faces challenges in fulfilling its food needs. Climate change, land conversion, and industrialization play a role in food crop production. This study aims to examine the short-term and long-term effects of climate change, land conversion, and industrialization on the food production index. The analysis method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The ARDL analysis was chosen because it can explain the short-term and long-term effects as well as the effects at each lag time. The results showed that there is positive and significant long-term cointegration or influence between rainfall, per capita energy consumption, agricultural land area, and forest area on the food production index. There is also a significant negative long-term effect between air temperature, industrialization, and population density on the food production index. In the short term, the previous year's food production, land area and forest area, air temperature, energy consumption, rainfall in two and three years ago, current of industrial share, and one and two years ago industrial share, population density two years ago influence the current food production index. The conclusion and findings of this study are that there is long-term cointegration and short-term effects at different lag times for climate change, land conversion, and industrialization variables on the food production index.

Determinants of Food Production in Southeast Asia Region

The objective of the current study is to examine significant contributors to food production in nine selected countries of Southeast Asia using yearly data span from 2006 to 2016. The panel estimation is adopted and the fixed effect model has been selected as an appropriate model. The baseline model without interaction effect reveals that real gross domestic product per capita, fixed capital formation and Consumer Price Index (CPI) significantly contribute to food production in the region. The second model is developed using interaction variables to obtain robust results. With interaction effects, fixed capital formation affects food production negatively with CO2 emission as mediating factor. The relationship between CO2 emission as an environmental factor and food production index is positive and significant. The findings suggest more appropriate policies and innovative programs should be adopted in agriculture sector of the countries in study to boost food production and lessen food insecurity in the region.

A Panel Snapshot of Climate Change (CO2) Emission on Health Risk: The Case of Relating Sub-Saharan Africa to Different Country Regions

The rising concern that the effect of climate change on population health risk is gradually generating significant attention. This no doubt influenced the exploration of climate change (co2) emission on population health risk in the case of relating African to different income regions. This study made use of fixed panel cross-sectional analysis, descriptive analysis and correlation coefficient index to estimate the study objective which was to investigate the effects of climate change (co2) emission on population health risk among different country income regions from 2000 to 2021 from the World Bank Indicators (WBI) across the selected income countries and region. Findings showed that climate change (Co2) emission per capita, gross domestic product per capita, and food production index, have negative and significant effects on population health risk, whereas, urban population defecation has a positive and significant effect on the population health risk among different country regions. Specifically, carbon dioxide emissions (C02) (c02empc) are highly associated with High-Income countries (HIC) when compared to other income regions. Hence, argued that attention should be to infrastructural sustainability and provision to maintain a clean environment. In addition, more energy should be channelled into food production and livestock production, especially for low-income regions to mitigate the overall effects of carbon dioxide emissions (C02) (c02empc) to tackle food security. Urgent policy actions and responses to air and water quality as useful adaptation strategies in the wider context of climate affect resilience for low-income regions like SSA countries.

Impact of Agricultural Sector on Economic Growth in MENA Countries: Evidence from Panel FMOLS and DOLS Estimators

The main purpose of this research paper was to empirically analyze the impact of the agricultural sector on economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa region during the period (2000-2019) based on panel co-integration approach and Fully modified OLS and Dynamic ordinary least squares estimators. The results showed a long run relationship between the variables used. As for the results of estimating the study model in the long run using the FMOLS and DOLS estimators, it was found that the agriculture value added had a significant positive impact on economic growth, while the food production index, employment in the agriculture sector and arable land had a negative impact on economic growth.

Carbon emissions, climate change, and Nigeria's agricultural productivity

This paper examined the impact of climate change through the carbon emissions channel on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. It adopted the transposed second-generation environmental Kuznets curve model, which defined growth (agricultural productivity) as a function of climate change. Data from world development indicators between 1960 and 2019 were utilized to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. The paper employed the bound test (ARDL) method. The result showed the existence of a long-run relationship between carbon emissions (proxy by CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and CO<sub>2</sub> intensity) and agricultural productivity (proxy by Agric.GDP, crop production index, and food production index) in Nigeria. The speed of adjustments is between 34% and 80%. Thus, a change in CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and intensity affects Agric.GDP differently, but CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and intensity negatively impacted crop and food production in Nigeria. The result implies that carbon emissions and carbon intensity cause decline and generates a dampening threat to Nigeria’s agricultural productivity through physical risk channels. By extension, the study concludes that carbon emission causes climate vulnerability that affects agricultural yields, production, and productivity. Carbon emissions results in low agricultural productivity which in turn disrupt food security as well as distort the poverty reduction strategy in the country. This study, therefore, recommends an equitable implementation of carbon pricing, adoption of mitigation policies, promotion of effective and efficient environmental laws, and the implementation of an appropriate abatement policy that jointly optimizes environmental stability and growth targets of the sustainable development goals.

Right to food in times of COVID-19

COVID-19 pandemic caused countries to enter quarantine, which caused the total or partial closure of some activities. In Ecuador, the quarantine started on March 17, 2020, this caused the limitation of the manufacturing industry and food production, so the objective of this research is to determine the incidence of the index of food production and manufacturing industry in the malnutrition index of this population. Pearson's statistic was applied to determine if there is correlation between the variables of study, where it was obtained that there is a direct linear correlation between the index of people with malnutrition, Food Production Index and Index of production of the manufacturing industry of 0.41 and 0.61 respectively, Ecuador has an increasing trend of malnutrition rate since 2016, date that obtained 9.7% and currently has reached 12.5%. In addition, the decreasing trend of food is contrary to the trend of the population, a situation that threatens the availability of food.

Inequality, population growth, and hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Despite increasing population and inequality in most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and their tendencies to aggravate hunger there is still dearth of knowledge on their effects on hunger in the region. Therefore, the study used data for 46 SSA countries from 2007 to 2017 to examine the effects of inequality and population on hunger by adopting the System Generalized Method of Moment approach as it is specifically applicable in this situation. Results showed that inequality (p < 0.01) and population growth (p < 0.1) significantly increased the level of hunger, while GDP per capita (p < 0.01) and Food Production index (p < 0.1) significantly reduced hunger in the region. Arellano-Bond test confirmed the validity of the GMM results by rejecting the null hypothesis of non-existence of autocorrelation of the first order and accepting that of the second order in the disturbance term, while the Hansen and Sargan tests affirmed that variables used as instruments were valid in line with expectations. Robustness of the result was also confirmed as the coefficient of the lagged response variable (0.8701) fell between the fixed effect model estimate (0.5165) and pooled OLS estimate (0.9571) in line with theory. The study recommended policies capable of reducing inequality, boosting economic growth, and controlling excessive population growth, while food production and value addition are encouraged in order to avert hunger in the region.

What's new in the drivers of electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa?

This study examines the drivers of electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa in 48 chosen countries from 1995 to 2019, accounting for endogeneity of variables using a new novel xtdpdgmm command that implements two-step system GMM (Generalized Method of Moment) estimators. The findings show that in sub-Saharan Africa, domestic credit to the private sector and the food production index are the two most important factors influencing access to electricity. Domestic credits to the private sector and food production are statistically significant and have a positive impact on increasing regional electricity access. Thus, having access to credit from financial institutions is crucial for many households in order to have access to electricity. The result reveals that agricultural productivity improves food security by increasing access to electricity. Our study recommends that governments in sub-Saharan Africa should boost agricultural production and provide a favorable environment for the banking sector and other microcredit institutions to finance electrification initiatives. In order to improve the region's access to electricity, financial institutions, governments, and donor funding should be encouraged to finance small-scale renewable energy projects. Thus, to lower the cost of electrification in sub-Saharan Africa, increasing off-grid financing should be prioritized. These findings have significant implications for sub-Saharan Africa and other developing countries.

Effect of dried bakery powder with and without yeast in the diet on some productive traits of broilers Ross 308.

This experiment was conducted to find out the effect of replacing two levels of dried bakery with and without yeast instead of the wheat and barley on the productive performance of Ross 308 broilers. At the poultry field, for the research station, College of Agriculture and the Marshes, Thi Qar University, from 11/8/2020 to 12/12/2020, using 270 unsexed one-day-old broiler chicks, were randomly distributed over five experimental treatments and three replicates (18 birds/replicate). The treatments were as follows: T1: control treatment without addition, T2 and T3 added 10 and 20% dried bakery powder without yeast, T4 and T5 added 10 and 20% dried bakery powder with 0.04% yeast. The results of the study indicated that there was a significant (P≤0.05) improvement in the studied productive traits (Body weight, weight gain, feed intake, food conversion factor, mortality, vital ratio, and production index) for broilers, when added dried bakery powder with yeast, the best addition ratio was 20% dried bakery powder with 0.04% yeast compared to the control treatment and treatments for added dried bakery powder without yeast.&#x0D; Keywords: dried bakery powder, yeast, productive traits, Ross 308 broilers.