Food Prices Research Articles

Food prices in the United States during COVID-19: generalized facts on price inflation and volatility

PurposeThe COVID-19 pandemic was a shock to the food supply chain without modern precedent. Challenges in production, manufacturing, distribution and retailing led to the highest rates of food price inflation in the US since the 1970s. The major goal of this paper is to describe statistically the impact of the pandemic of food price inflation and volatility in the US and to discuss implications for industry and for policymakers.Design/methodology/approachWe use Bureau of Labor Statistics data to investigate food prices in the US, 2020–2021. We apply 16 statistical approaches to measure price changes and volatility and three regression approaches to measure counterfactuals of food prices, had the pandemic not occurred.FindingsFood price inflation and volatility increased substantially during the early months of the pandemic, with a great deal of heterogeneity across food products and geographic regions. Food price inflation was most pronounced for meats, and contrary to expectations, highest in the western US Forecasting approaches demonstrate that grocery prices were about 7% higher than they would have been without the pandemic as of the end of 2021.Originality/valueThe research on COVID-19 and the food system remains in its nascent stage. As findings on food loss and waste, employment and wages, food insecurity and more proliferate, it is vital to understand how food prices were connected to these phenomena and affected. We also motivate several ideas for future work.

The effect of output level and inflation on food security in Ethiopia: an empirical analysis using the ARDL framework

Ethiopia has experienced years of robust economic growth, with an average annual growth rate of 6%. However, the country continues to grapple with food insecurity, which is exacerbated by high food prices. The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of output level and inflation on Ethiopia's food security situation. The researchers utilized quarterly interpolated time-series data from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2019. The data was analyzed using an autoregressive distributive lag framework for cointegration. The study's significant findings unequivocally demonstrate that a high output level has a positive effect on Ethiopia's food security situation in both the short and long terms, while showing a weak coefficient in the long run. However, unpredictable political contexts, rising food prices, and fluctuations in global pricing negatively affect this impact. The paper suggests that, alongside the level of output, sustaining improvements in Ethiopia's food security status necessitates enhancing production capacity, restoring stability, mitigating food price inflation, and strengthening disaster management.

The Asymmetric Effects of Global Energy and Food Prices, Exchange Rate Dynamics, and Monetary Policy Conduct on Inflation in Indonesia

This research analyzes the asymmetric effects of global energy and food prices and monetary variables, including the exchange rate and money supply, on the consumer price index (CPI). The model is intended to differentiate the influence of increases and decreases in global energy and food prices, exchange rates, and money supply which cause inflation/deflation from changes in the CPI. The analysis uses the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) and Quantile Regression models on data from January 2001 to February 2023. The study results show that the decline in global energy prices significantly reduces the CPI in the long run. Energy subsidies allow increases in international energy prices not to increase the CPI significantly. Meanwhile, the increase in global food prices causes inflation in the short run. The exchange rate has the most significant effect on the CPI. Depreciation of the rupiah significantly increases the CPI, which means it causes inflation, while appreciation of the rupiah does not have a significant effect. Finally, increases and decreases in the money supply have a considerable positive effect on the CPI, which confirms the logic of the monetarist view that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Efforts to reduce dependence on imports of food and energy commodities are the key to reducing risks when importing energy and food due to rupiah depreciation. Efforts to consistently stabilize the exchange rate can support controlling and stabilizing import prices. Energy and food subsidy policies are vital in controlling inflation due to increased world energy and food prices.

Perceived Effect of Fuel Price Hike on Farming Households in Imo State

The study assessed the perceived effect of fuel price hike among farming households in Imo State. The study described the socio-economic characteristics of farming households in Imo State; ascertained farming households’ awareness of fuel price hike; identified the perceived causes of fuel price hike; ascertained the perceived effect of fuel price hike on farming activities among farming households in Imo State and identified the coping strategies used among farming households to cushion the effect of fuel price hike in Imo State. A multi-stage sampling was adopted in selecting 120 farming households for the study. Primary data were used for the study using a structured questionnaire. Data analysis employed percentages, means, frequencies and mean score analysis. The result on the awareness of the effect of fuel price hike among farming household showed that all the farmers were aware (100%). farming households perceived fuel subsidy removal (x̄=3.7), instability in government policies (x̄ =3.5), high cost of importation of refined fuel (x̄ =3.4), Non-functional of local refineries (x̄ =3.3) among others as the causes of fuel price hike. Farming households perceived increased cost of transportation for farm inputs (x̄ =3.9), Increased cost of production/farming activities like ploughing, clearing etc(x̄=3.9) Increased price of farm produce (x̄ =4.0), Increased food prices (x̄=4.0), decreased agricultural productivity (x̄=3.4), Limited access to agricultural machinery and equipment,( x̄ =3.3), increased in transportation of farm produce to the market (x̄ =3.4) as the effects of fuel price hike. The highest ranking coping strategies used by farming households were trekking some distances to reduce the cost of transportation (Ranked 1st), Minimising spending habits due to fuel price increase (2nd), Explored the use of alternative energy sources e.g solar panels for irrigation, charcoal, firewood (3rd). Explore the possibility of collective purchasing or bulk buying with others to reduce individual costs (4th) and skipping meals (5th). Educational level, household size and access to credit were the significant socioeconomic variables influencing farming households’ perceived effect of fuel price hike. The study therefore recommends that Nigeria's crude oil should be refined domestically so that the importation of refined fuel can be banned which will reduce the cost of refining and pump price.

The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The present study investigates how grain prices have been affecting food inflation in the wake of the recent pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study examines the effects on inflation of the limitations on exports of wheat, barley and corn products by Russia and Ukraine on the food inflation in Asia and North Africa by using cointegration test. Drawing upon monthly data from the 2000:01–2020:08 period, the study reveals that the food price index and grain prices in both Asia and North Africa are cointegrated in the long term, and that in both country groups wheat price increases in particular are triggering an increase in food prices.

Analysing Household Food Consumption in Turkey Using Machine Learning Techniques

The fluctuations in food prices have highlighted the significance of analysing the factors influencing household food consumption. Recent advancements in data analysis have opened new avenues for investigating this subject. While studies have employed novel data analysis methods to examine the factors impacting household food consumption, the effect of the chosen analysis method on the research outcome remains unexplored. In this study, we aimed to investigate household food consumption in Turkey between 2012-2019 using various data analysis techniques (Linear Regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, and Multi-Layer Perception). Our findings reveal that income emerged as the most influential factor in household food consumption across all methods. However, the impact of other factors varied depending on the method employed. This suggests that the method chosen to analyse factors other than income in studies of this nature can significantly impact the results. Researchers should exercise caution when selecting their analysis method.

Estimation and analysis of the economic effects of the Corona Virus on Food Security in Iraq

The coronavirus pandemic is one of the types of communicable and infectious diseases that have caused very significant impacts in many economic variables, especially the food gap for wheat and rice crops in Iraq and in the majority of the world. The problem of research lies in the nature of the challenges and constraints to the production of these two crops, which has made the effects of the pandemic add additional burden to it. Iraq has thus lost its ability to achieve food security, while food prices have risen significantly, reflecting the high rate of deficits in the State's general budget, as Iraq is a net importer of most types of agricultural products, particularly the strategy. The research aims to study the reality of food security from wheat and rice crops during the period of the pandemic and its repercussions in the Iraqi economy. A number of findings have been reached in the practical aspect of the study, including the emergence of the inverse relationship between the quantities produced by wheat and its food gap. The relationship between the quantities produced and imported from rice and its food gap has been expulsive. The State's general budget deficit relationship with the food gap in both crops was expulsive. We recommend diversifying the production of the Iraqi economy, reducing dependence on the oil sector's foreign exchange revenues, adopting a policy of protection for domestic products from foreign competition and developing agricultural infrastructure to the extent that it is capable of achieving food security from both crops at all times.

The asymmetric effect of monetary policy on core inflation in Jordan: NARDL model

This study aimed to estimate the asymmetric impact of monetary policy on core inflation rates in Jordan during the period 2000-2020 using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) Based on quarterly data. The unit root tests showed the different degrees of integration by applying the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (ADF) and Philip Perron (P.P). and has a cointegration relationship using Johansson's test, and the Bound test. Also, there is a nonlinear relationship in the time series using waled test. The study used Core Inflation (CORINF) as a dependent variable (calculated based on excluding energy and food prices method) and the overnight deposit rate (CBJR), the loan and advances interest rate (LR), the growth in money supply (GM2), and the growth in real GDP (GRGDP) used as independent variables. The results indicated that there are asymmetric effects of both CBJR and GM2 on core inflation, as a 1% increase in GM2 leads to an increase in the CORINF by 1.3%, while its decrease by 1% leads to a decrease in the CORINF by 1.2%, in contrast, an increase in the LR by 1% leads to a decrease in the CORINF by 0.15% and a decrease by 1% leads to a rise in the CORINF by 0.44%, and the study also found that a rise in LR by 1% lead to a decrease in the CORINF by 0.43%, while its decrease by 1% leads to a rise in the CORINF by 0.44%.

Optimizing yard space for independent food security in Kebonbatur Village

Amidst economic hardships and rising staple food prices, the majority of residents in RT 01 RW III of Kebonbatur Village, Mranggen District, Demak Regency, who work as laborers and farmers, struggle to meet their daily food needs. This community service program aimed to optimize limited yard space by introducing urban farming using the BUDIKDAMBER system (fish and vegetable cultivation in buckets). The training covered equipment preparation, fish distribution techniques, feeding, water quality maintenance, fish harvesting, and vegetable planting using aquaponics methods. Intensive mentoring was provided to ensure practical implementation of the acquired knowledge. The residents' enthusiasm was remarkable, as they immediately applied the learnings in their respective yards. This activity successfully raised awareness and skills among residents in utilizing limited space for self-reliant food security, as evidenced by active participation, satisfaction with harvest results, and the opening of economic opportunities.

WHO CONSUMES MORE BROKEN RICE GRAIN? EVIDENCE FROM RURAL AND URBAN CONSUMERS

The present study, in response to rising food prices, was conceived to find quantitative differences, particularly in broken rice consumption concerning the consumers' geographic (urban/rural) location. Four districts, namely Faisalabad, Sheikhupura, Kasur, and Toba Tek Singh were selected as a case study from central Punjab. Cross- sectional data collected randomly from 250 consumers of broken rice (100 from Faisalabad and 50 from each of the remaining districts with equal proportion of rural and urban households) was used to run a descriptive and non-parametric test of Mann-Whitney U-Test, an alternative test to student t-test. Descriptive statistics show that the average monthly income of the households was Rs. 73251, with an average monthly income of Rs. 63911 and Rs. 82667 for rural and urban households, respectively. The overall total rice consumption per household (11.2 Kg/month) comprised almost half (51%) of broken rice (5.71 Kg/month). Total rice consumption was comparatively more in urban households despite a non-significant difference. The Mann-Whitney U-test finds a highly significant difference in the consumption of broken rice for rural and urban households. The test further clarifies that rural consumers consumed more broken rice (6.38 Kg/month) than urban households (5.04 Kg/month). Comparatively, more consumption of whole rice in urban settings and broken rice in rural areas seem in line with their respective higher and lower income levels. As these research findings have important policy implications for ensuring household food security, there is a need to further validate findings for appropriate national-level policy using large country level data sets. Keeping in view the role of rice similar to wheat flour in reducing food insecurity, studies finding the relationships between household income and consumption of rice, including locally called pona, adware, tota, or mix type categories of broken rice, are suggested to deeply understand the consumer preferences for broken rice market in the country.

Modelling the Volatility Inducement of Climate Change in Food Prices: The Role of Technological Shocks

We used a GARCH-MIDAS framework to demonstrate that, in addition to the food system, temperature anomalies can cause food price volatility. We show that technology shock can act as an effect modifier between food prices and climate change. We infer that initiatives targeted at mitigating climate change from causing excessive volatility in food prices should involve technology in addition to modification of food demand and supply processes.

Welfare Effects of Food Tariff Changes on Urban and Rural Households

This study aims to analyze the effects of food tariff changes on the welfare of urban and rural households in Iran. The study considers the role of households as consumers, producers, and workers, as well as the market structure over the past fifteen years. Firstly, the study estimated the consumption behavior for the main food groups using the QUAIDS and pseudo-panel data. Then, the extent of tariff pass-through to domestic food prices was determined, and after that, price-wage elasticity and wage changes as a result of tariff changes were estimated. Finally, it calculated the effect of tariff changes on household purchasing power and income through an indirect utility function to get welfare effects. The results indicate that tariff pass-through to food prices is incomplete and varies between urban and rural areas. The study has found that skilled labor is more sensitive to food tariff reductions than unskilled labor, particularly in rural areas. The results reveal that tariff changes positively affect urban households' welfare, while rural households experience a loss due to these changes. Urban areas benefit from reduced household expenditure, while food prices are increasing in rural areas due to weak or absent tariff pass-through. Although these increases favor producers, they do not compensate for the loss suffered by consumers, resulting in reduced welfare in rural areas. The findings show that the effects of tariff changes vary across regions, not only between urban and rural areas but also among different provinces. Furthermore, the tariff reductions have been a boon for consumers, but a bane for producers, ultimately harming production in the long term. The findings suggest that regional markets may be either sufficient or insufficient to convert pass-through-the-border prices into domestic prices. Therefore, policymakers can use this study as a useful guide to reform the regional market structure to raise household welfare, food security, and income inequality.

Geo-sustainable Practices in Urban Agriculture: A Study of Sustainable Land Use and Natural Resource Conservation at Household Level

This study explores urban agriculture as a solution to food insecurity in Lahore, Pakistan, amid rapid urbanization and declining agricultural productivity. Using a mixed methods approach, the research assesses the current state of urban agriculture, community willingness to adopt such practices, and the factors influencing this adoption. Data was collected from households in Johar Town and Faisal Town through surveys, complemented by a literature review of global urban agriculture policies. The findings reveal limited practice of urban agriculture but significant willingness among residents, driven by factors such as self-reliance, high food prices, and health concerns. However, barriers like lack of access to land, guidance, and time hinder widespread adoption. The socio-economic profile of respondents indicates varied interest and awareness based on age, income, and household size. The study emphasizes the need for policies promoting urban agriculture, including community gardens, vertical farms, and wastewater reuse. Educational campaigns and professional training are essential to raise awareness and build skills among urban dwellers. The research concludes that urban agriculture can enhance food security and sustainability in Lahore with robust policy support and community engagement. Future research should expand the study area, use more nuanced data collection methods, and explore the economic viability of urban agriculture initiatives. Such efforts aim to advance urban agriculture practices and policies in Lahore, making the city more self-sufficient and resilient in food production.

The transmission of shocks to food and energy commodity prices to food inflation in the euro area*

ABSTRACT We estimate how shocks to food and energy (fuel) commodity prices pass-through to food consumer prices in the euro area, where the current episode of substantial and persistent increase in food prices is unprecedented when looking at the past decades. We extend the workhorse food value-chain model of Ferrucci et al. (2012) to account for fuel prices and asymmetries. We show that there is a persistent and significant effect of shocks to food and energy commodity prices on food inflation that reaches a maximum at around 12 months after the shock. We also show that both types of shocks impact food consumer prices in an asymmetric way, with increases in prices having a significant, positive effect, while price decreases have a milder effect in the case of food commodities and a statistically non-significant effect in the case of energy commodities.

Smart Agriculture Applications and Data Analysis with Industry 4.0

The world’s food demand is predicted to exceed its food supply significantly in the coming periods. Many physical factors, such as climate change in access to water, change the production amount and food prices. Efficient resource utilization can be achieved by developing smart agricultural applications using the IoT and image processing techniques. For this purpose, in the proposed study, a smart agriculture application was developed using IoT technology with image processing. In the proposed image processing algorithm, the crops’ images were processed, weight estimates were made, and their numbers were taken. The data we collect instantly can be uploaded to the cloud, and the data collected on the cloud side can be analyzed over the mobile application. Thanks to data analysis with the mobile application we have developed, we can see the current status of the crops and make instant decisions, and it also plays a role in determining market prices. With all these studies, it has been seen that agriculture can be digitalized with the technologies we use, and thus, productivity in agriculture can increase significantly.

Beyond fossil: the synthetic fuel surge for a green-energy resurgence

Abstract This review offers a comprehensive overview of synthetic fuels as promising alternatives to conventional fossil fuels. The carbon-neutral potential of synthetic fuels when produced using renewable energy and captured CO2, offering significant opportunities to mitigate CO2 emissions, is discussed. Moreover, the efficiency of synthetic fuels is presented, as they do not require dedicated agricultural land or substantial water resources, addressing concerns related to the land-use change and water scarcity associated with traditional biofuels. The economic viability of synthetic fuels is explored, highlighting the advancements in technology and decreased renewable-energy costs, coupled with their independence from food crops, mitigating concerns about potential impacts on food prices. Major investments by industry leaders such as Porsche, Highly Innovative Fuels Global, and ExxonMobil, totalling $1 billion, aimed at achieving an annual production of 550 million litres by 2026, are covered in detail. This study is further extended by emphasizing the scalability of synthetic fuel production through modular processes, enabling tailored facilities to meet regional demands and contribute to a decentralized and resilient energy infrastructure. Additionally, the ‘drop-in’ nature of synthetic fuels that are seamlessly compatible with existing fuel storage, pipelines, and pumps, facilitating a smooth transition without requiring extensive infrastructure changes, is highlighted. Challenges such as the current high cost of synthetic fuel production are acknowledged, necessitating supportive government policies and incentives for widespread adoption. Overall, synthetic fuels have emerged as promising contenders in the pursuit of sustainable and adaptable energy solutions, with tangible benefits for the environment, economy, and existing energy infrastructure.

The Nexus of Crude Oil and Food Prices: Evidence of the Crude Oil Prices Influence on Food Insecurity Problem

Food cost is a fundamental factor in reducing world hunger and minimizing the food insecurity problem. Agricultural commodities prices, especially grains, are determinants of food costs. Therefore, studying the behavior of commodity prices responsible for food security on the planet is essential for economic agents, especially for macroeconomic policy decision-makers. Food production and prices are related to energy prices, mainly through biofuels and fertilizers. Among energy sources, crude oil is one of the main ones in the world's energy matrix. Many studies on crude oil and food prices have been carried out relating energy and food or, more specifically, crude oil and agricultural commodity prices. This work examines the dynamic relationship between oil and grain commodity prices: rice, wheat, corn and soybeans. It also verifies the causality and cointegration between each grain and crude oil price return. Besides that, Autoregressive vector models were estimated to infer the impulse response function and the variance decomposition. The sample period corresponds to the interval between the two biggest crises of the century, the subprime financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic sanitary crisis. Thus, the data is not impacted by significant abnormal variations caused by these crises. The inferences show an interaction between crude oil prices practiced in the international market and food commodity prices.

Food prices in New Zealand: implications for feeding people better

ABSTRACT There are ongoing concerns about food security, particularly around food affordability and the nutritional quality of diets in New Zealand. While recent food price inflation has sparked conversations about overall affordability, less attention has been directed toward understanding how variations in price increases across different food categories might impact nutrition and health. Using data from Statistics New Zealand on the prices of 85 food items between 2014 and 2023, we estimated 12-month moving averages of relative real prices of sweetened foods vis-à-vis those of five other food categories: dairy, fruits, vegetables, processed meats, and unprocessed meats. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall tests and linear regressions were used to assess the trends in relative food prices. The data show that sweetened foods have become relatively inexpensive over this period. On the premise that both absolute and relative prices are important in determining dietary choices and that these choices impact health, we consider the possible negative implications of these trends. Possible reasons for the recent trends and policies to meet the challenges they pose are discussed.

Food Prices in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 1926–1945: A Historical Study

Abstract This article addresses food prices in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the factors that influence them, and the measures that the government took to guarantee their stability during the period 1926–1945. The article’s timeframe coincides with an important phase of the Kingdom’s development, marked by efforts to promote the integration and unification between all its regions by fostering regulatory, financial, and economic unity within the context of limited financial resources. In doing so, it follows a historical analysis methodology, relying on a variety of source materials, among the most important of which are the local documents kept at the King Abdulaziz Foundation, the Institute of Public Administration, and King Fahad National Library.

Investigating the Strategies Employed by Fast-Food Restaurant to Establish Sustainable Customer Relationships

McDonald’s Corporation, established in 1940, is an American multinational fastfood chain. Over the years, McDonald’s has successfully expanded their business operation worldwide. The customer plays a vital role in the success of a business. The strategies and abilities to retain a customer will determine the survival of a business. Hence, this study aims to investigate the strategies employed by McDonald's to foster long-term customer relationships by examining various factors, including food quality, service quality, atmosphere, price, brand, and customer relationships. To explore, primary and secondary data collection was conducted through several sources, and a digital questionnaire was produced to collect data and information from 150 respondents. The results found that only atmosphere and brand had a significant positive impact on customer relationships. The study found that atmosphere has the strongest influence, followed by brand. This suggests that while food quality, service quality, and price are important, creating a pleasant atmosphere and fostering a strong brand are even more critical for McDonald's to build lasting customer relationships.