Food Price Movements Research Articles

Pengaruh Harga Bahan Pangan Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia

This study aimed to analyze the effect of food prices on the development of inflation in Indonesia. Indonesia's inflation showed a declining pattern in 2017 to 2021. An analysis of the effect of food prices on inflation is needed to evaluate changes in food prices that cause and contribute to inflation. Food prices fluctuate in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 to 2021 because regional restrictions and mobility can affect the distribution process and availability of food ingredients. Food consumption had a fairly large proportion of total household consumption in developing countries, so changes in food prices would have an impact on economic conditions through demand and supply mechanisms. The analytical method used was multiple linear regression. The data used in the multiple linear regression analysis was secondary data consisting of food prices, namely rice, chicken meat, beef, chicken eggs, shallots, garlic, red chilies, cayenne pepper, cooking oil, granulated sugar and inflation for the July period. 2017 to July 2021. The results of the analysis explained that food ingredients shallots, rice, beef, and cooking oil had a significant effect with a negative coefficient direction on inflation, namely deflation tends to occur in food price movements. Garlic, chicken meat, and sugar had a positive effect on increasing inflation . Keywords: Price, Inflation, Commodity

Global Food Commodity Prices and Domestic Food Inflation: Some Insights from Morocco

This paper examines the world commodity prices pass-through to food inflation in Morocco, over the period 2004-2018, by using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model on monthly data. Several interesting results are found from this study. First, the impact of global food prices on domestic food inflation is shown significant, which reflects the large imported component in the domestic food consumption basket. Second, the transmission effect is found to vary across commodities. Consumer prices of cereals and oils significantly and positively respond to external price shocks, while those of dairy and beverages are weakly influenced. Third, there is evidence of asymmetries in the pass-through from world to domestic food prices, where external positive shocks generate a stronger local prices response than negative ones. This situation is indicative of policy and market distortions, namely the subsidies, price controls, and weak competitive market structures. Our findings suggest that food price movements should require much attention in monetary policymaking, especially that the country has taken preliminary steps towards the adoption of floating exchange rate regime.

Limitation of trade margins as a measure of food price controls: Experience of Serbia

The aim of this study is to examine the influence of trade margins limitations to the prices of basic food products and general price level in the Republic of Serbia. Assessing the effects of the Regulation on the margins limitations from 2012, this paper considers the purpose of applying this instrument of indirect price control. In practice, prescribing a maximum trade margins can have positive effects on the food market stability only in the short term. It is therefore necessary a broader consideration of the factors of pricing on the food market and food inflation regulation by economic policy measures. A particular problem is the low degree of competition in the trade sector, which significantly affects the prices of the final products. Food price movements are very unstable, while their share in the consumer price index in the Republic of Serbia is significantly. It is logical to conclude that food prices have a dominant influence on inflation, so that the government actions in this area are justified.

Reconsidering the role of food prices in South African headline inflation

ABSTRACTThe conventional wisdom is that food price shocks are temporary and hence do not usually warrant specific attention in policy formulation. However, more recently, empirical evidence has shown that food price shocks are persistent and have a strong bearing on inflation outcomes. This paper shows that this is indeed the case for South Africa. South African food prices are volatile and the price shocks are persistent. Food inflation is an important determinant of underlying inflationary pressures in the South African economy. Thus, policy should give particular attention to food price movements if inflation is to be kept in check.

How Vulnerable are Arab Countries to Global Food Price Shocks?

We estimate pass-through effects of international food price movements into domestic food prices for 18 countries in the Middle East and North Africa, using threshold regressions. International price movements transmit to various degrees into domestic prices. Transmission is mostly asymmetric, pushing domestic price levels up as increases in international food prices are typically passed through, but declines are rarely transmitted. This situation is indicative of policy and market distortions, notably the presence of food subsidies in the context of fiscal constraints. Hence, both international prices and their volatility matter for domestic inflation, yet domestic factors also play a role.

Price Trends and Income Inequalities: Will Sub‐Saharan Africa Reduce the Gap?

AbstractDuring the past decade, commodities prices have risen substantially and the trend is likely to persist as attested by recent OECD‐FAO projections. The recent debate has not reached a clear consensus on the effects of this trend on poverty and income inequality in LDCs, thus complicating the policy planning process. Our paper aims at analysing the likely welfare and income inequality impacts of food price trends in three sub‐Saharan countries, namely Tanzania, Ghana and Ethiopia. Moreover, we test the statistical significance of changes in income inequalities. Although Tanzania is not affected, we find that price changes tend to exacerbate the income inequalities in Ethiopia and Ghana, especially for specific groups of households. The policy implications are relevant. Finally, our paper underlines the relevance of statistical inference in analysis on income inequalities, to conclude on welfare and inequalities effects of food price movements.

Seasonal Food Crises and Policy Responses: A Narrative Account of Three Food Security Crises in Malawi

Summary This paper examines seasonal food price crises in Malawi. In the 2000s, Malawi experienced three episodes in which seasonal maize prices rose in 2001–02, 2004–05, and 2007–09 by 354%, 218%, and 395%, respectively. These extreme price spikes resulted from a sequential interaction of economic and political events. A repeated pattern of cause, inapt response and adverse outcome is identified. The relative neglect in vulnerability analysis of staple food price movements as lead indicators of impending food crises is emphasized, and implications are drawn for price stabilisation, public–private coordination and social protection policies.

Predicting Agri-Commodity Prices: An Asset Pricing Approach

Volatile and rising agricultural prices place significant strain on the global fight against poverty. An accurate reading of future food price movements would thus be an invaluable budgetary planning tool for government agencies and food aid programs aimed at alleviating hunger. Using the asset-pricing approach developed in Chen, Rogoff and Rossi (2010), we show that information from the currency and equity markets of several commodity-exporting economies can offer powerful help in forecasting world agricultural prices. Our formulation builds upon the notion that because these countries' currency and equity valuations depend on the world price of their commodity exports, market participants would incorporate expected future commodity price movements into the current values of these assets. As the exchange rate and equity markets are typically much more fluid than the agri-commodity markets (where prices tend to be more constrained by current supply and demand conditions), these asset prices can signal future agricultural price dynamics beyond information contained in the agri-commodity prices themselves. Our findings complement forecast methods based on structural factors such as supply, demand, and storage considerations.

The role of food price inflation in Lesotho

The paper analyses the role of food price movements in inflation within the Lesotho’s economy. The results reveal that food inflation has generally not only been more volatile and higher than non-food inflation, but also more persistent than the inflation of non-food products. Furthermore, food price movements are discovered to have significant impact on core inflation, thereby giving evidence that food prices contain some useful information about the underlying inflation trends in Lesotho. On the other hand, the results have shown the presence of strong second-round price effects between food and non-food inflation. These findings, therefore, imply that the setting and communication of monetary policy in Lesotho should be based on developments in underlying inflation rather than overall inflation. However, any attempt to capture the underlying inflation using measures that exclude food items only on the basis of their high volatility would be unjustified.

The effect of food-price movements on African households

In this paper, we aim to assess households’ vulnerability to food-price increases in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We use two established indicators of sensitivity to food price changes – one measuring the share of income spent on food, the other measuring net sales of food compared to total expenditures. In contrast to earlier studies, we look at all food items and not just one or a few staple foods and find that the exclusion of non-staple foods has a significant impact on the results. We find that the shares of the populations spending more than half of their income on food lie in the range 62% to 81% in rural areas and 26% to 67% in urban areas. Further, we find that in all countries/regions studied, most households (74% to 99%) in rural areas are net buyers of food and stand to lose in the short term from higher food prices.

FOOD INFLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMIC POLICY

This paper analyses the trends in food price movements in South Africa between 1980 and 2008. There are three main results emanating from the analysis in this paper. Firstly, food price movements have played a large role in generating inflationary episodes in South Africa. Secondly, while external influences do matter, South African food price movements are mainly due to domestic influences. This implies that national policy has an important role to play in taming domestic food price inflation. Thirdly, given the strong second round impacts, food price movements warrant special attention in monetary policymaking. Core measures of inflation that exclude food price movements may not accurately reflect the underlying inflationary pressures in the economy and could compromise the attainment of the goal of price stability.

On the Macroeconomic Management of Food Price Shocks in Low-income Countries

Global food prices have risen sharply in recent years and have become more volatile. In this paper, I examine how these developments are transmitted to domestic food and non-food markets in low-income economies and consider the options available to policymakers concerned with managing the macroeconomic consequences of global food price shocks. I first review the simple economics of the transmission of global food price movements to food and non-food prices in low-income countries. I then use a simple dependent-economy model to illustrate the real macroeconomic and distributional effects of alternative fiscal and trade policy responses to food shocks and how these are determined by the structural characteristics of low-income economies. In the final section, I consider how food price shocks impact on the aggregate price level and, in particular, the implications of increased food price volatility has for the design and conduct of monetary policy in low-income economies.

Escalating Food Prices: The Threat to Poor Households and Policies to Safeguard a Recovery for All

This working paper: (i) briefly reviews possible causes of the food price spike that began in mid-2010; (ii) examines recent local food price movements in 58 developing countries during 2010; (iii) discusses the adverse impacts of food price increases on households; (iv) presents a rapid desk review of international and domestic policy responses in 98 developing countries under a three-pillar policy framework - supporting consumption, boosting production and regulating/managing food markets; and (v) calls for urgent and coordinated policy actions by national governments and the international community.

Impacts in Uganda of rising global food prices: the role of diversified staples and limited price transmission

AbstractThis study assesses the potential impact of rising world food prices on the welfare of Ugandan households. While Uganda experienced sharply higher food prices in 2008, as a landlocked, food‐exporting country the causes of those price changes were mainly regional and indirect rather than directly transmitted from global markets. Using trade volumes, food prices, and household survey data we describe how Uganda, unlike some other countries, is partially shielded from direct impacts of global food price movements. Although the majority of Ugandans are net food buyers, the adverse impact at household‐level of rising global prices is moderated by the relatively large quantity and range of staples consumed that come from home production. Moreover, several of these are not widely traded. Some population groups in Uganda are vulnerable to rising food prices, however, primarily those for whom maize is an important staple, including those dependent upon humanitarian relief and the urban poor. Only a relatively small group of Ugandan households will benefit directly and immediately from rising food prices—the significant net sellers of food crops constituting between 12% and 27% of the population. In this assessment we do not estimate the level and extent of wider second round effects from these higher prices.

Money, Meat, and Inflation: Using Price Data to Understand an Export Shock in Sudan

Sudanese inflation dramatically fell in 2000. But just prior to the sharp decline, an export ban was placed on Sudanese livestock. Motivated by this clue, and in the absence of any reliable income or employment data, this paper systematically develops simultaneous models of the consumer price index (CPI) and the exchange rate to assess the economic impact of the export ban. It finds that livestock exports play a large economic role as an important source of income and as a store of value. In the long run, livestock exports are positively associated with nonfood inflation. In the short run, food price movements are negatively associated with livestock exports: to help smooth income, lower food prices generate increased livestock exports. Therefore, unable to export livestock, farmers may have flooded the local market with meat, lowering food prices. Moreover, the loss of income and the decline in wealth lowered aggregate demand, leading to the decline in nonfood prices.

Money, Meat, and Inflation: Using Price Data to Understand An Export Shock in Sudan

Sudanese inflation dramatically fell in 2000. But just prior to the sharp decline, an export ban was placed on Sudanese livestock. Motivated by this clue, and in the absence of any reliable income or employment data, this paper systematically develops simultaneous models of the consumer price index (CPI) and the exchange rate to assess the economic impact of the export ban. It finds that livestock exports play a large economic role as an important source of income and as a store of value. In the long run, livestock exports are positively associated with nonfood inflation. In the short run, food price movements are negatively associated with livestock exports: to help smooth income, lower food prices generate increased livestock exports. Therefore, unable to export livestock, farmers may have flooded the local market with meat, lowering food prices. Moreover, the loss of income and the decline in wealth lowered aggregate demand, leading to the decline in nonfood prices.

Forecasting CPI Food Prices: An Assessment

American Journal of Agricultural EconomicsVolume 79, Issue 5 p. 1681-1685 Principal Paper Session Forecasting CPI Food Prices: An Assessment Frederick L. Joutz, Frederick L. Joutz associate professor Department of Economics, George Washington UniversitySearch for more papers by this author Frederick L. Joutz, Frederick L. Joutz associate professor Department of Economics, George Washington UniversitySearch for more papers by this author First published: 01 December 1997 https://doi.org/10.2307/1244403Citations: 1AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Citing Literature Volume79, Issue5December 1997Pages 1681-1685 RelatedInformation