Food Price Changes Research Articles

Quantifying food security and mitigation risks consequential to climate change impacts on crop yields

Abstract Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the IMAGE integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.

Petrol Prices, Food Prices, and Inflation Perceptions in New Zealand—Evidence From a Threshold Analysis

ABSTRACTInflation perceptions shape inflation expectations. However, little is known about the factors influencing these perceptions. In this study, we address this gap by employing threshold regressions to analyze the associations between changes in petrol and food prices—two of the most conspicuous prices—and inflation perceptions in New Zealand. Findings reveal a positive association between petrol and food price inflation on the one hand and inflation perceptions on the other, with some evidence suggesting closer associations for food price inflation. Furthermore, the relationships do not change when high inflation rates are considered instead of low inflation rates. Finally, inflation perceptions are more closely related to petrol and food price inflation over the previous year than just the most recent quarter.

Investigating reformulation in the Canadian food supply between 2017 and 2020 and its impact on food prices.

This study examined the relationship between reformulation and food price in Canadian packaged foods and beverages between 2017 and 2020. Matched foods and beverages in the University of Toronto Food Label Information and Price 2017 and 2020 databases were analyzed (n=5774). Price change by food category and by retailer were compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. The proportion of products with changes in calories and nutrient levels were determined and mixed-effects models were used to examine the relationship between reformulation and price changes. The Food Standards Australia New Zealand (FSANZ) nutrient profiling model was applied to calculate nutritional quality scores and mixed-effects models were used to assess if changes in nutritional quality score were associated with price changes. Large grocery retailers by market share in Canada. Foods and beverages available in 2017 and 2020. Food price changes differed by retailer and by food category (e.g., increased in Bakery, Snacks etc; decreased in Beverages, Miscellaneous etc.). Nutrient reformulation was minimal and bidirectional with the highest proportion of products changing in sodium (17.8%; 8.4% increased and 9.4% decreased). The relationship between nutrient reformulation and price change was insignificant for all nutrients overall and was not consistent across food categories. Average FSANZ score did not change (7.5 in both years). For Legumes and Combination dishes, improvements in nutritional quality were associated with a price decrease and increase, respectively. Stronger policies are required to incentivize reformulation in Canada. Results do not provide evidence of reformulation impacting food prices.

Growth, Poverty, and Food Policy in the Philippines: Lessons for the Post-COVID-19 Era

The Philippine economy’s growth has accelerated since 2010, outperforming its Asian peers in the current decade. However, poverty reduction is comparatively weak in response to growth, suggesting that growth has been less inclusive than expected. Poverty in the Philippines is still largely a rural phenomenon despite the country’s rapid urbanization. Our primary objective is to reexamine how much the national food policy has influenced the poverty-reducing effects of economic growth using the more recent national household-level data from 2000 to 2021. The longer-term data, including a period of mobility relaxation following long lockdowns upon the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, allow us to revisit the growth-poverty conundrum in the Philippines. We focus on the more recent decade of relatively sustained growth compared to earlier studies on the subject. We use Engel food shares as a proxy for household welfare and consider the differential welfare effects of food price changes across segments of the population. We show that economic growth in recent years would have been strongly pro-poor if not for the misguided set of policy tools chosen to achieve the food self-sufficiency goal. The government’s move to dismantle the quantitative restriction regime on rice imports in favor of tariffs is a step in the right direction.

Long-term casual analysis of the energy-food price relationship

The energy price index is a key economic measure that tracks changes in the prices of energy commodities, such as petroleum, electricity, and gas. This study aims to explore how the energy price index influences the food price index, as both have significant impacts on the economy. The relationship between energy and food prices is complex and affected by various factors. The novelty of this research lies in identifying the time period during which increases in energy prices impact food prices due to inflation. A statistical approach is applied to investigate this effect, using data from Pakistan's energy and food price indices for the period between January 2019 and May 2023. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is employed to assess whether the time series is stationary, followed by the Granger causality test to determine if the energy price index can be used to predict changes in the food price index. The Engle-Granger cointegration test is used to identify long-term relationships between non-stationary time series. Additionally, various lag tests are conducted to determine the minimum time period within which changes in energy prices influence food prices. This research has practical implications for policymakers. Government agencies can use the findings to predict potential changes in food prices, and the study may also be relevant to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as shifts in food prices could directly or indirectly affect several SDGs.

Analysis Of Consumer Behavior Related To The Increase In Rice After The 2024 Election In Surakarta City

This study aims to analyze consumer behavior related to the increase in rice prices after the 2024 election in Surakarta City. The increase in rice prices is often an important issue in the context of the household economy, especially for consumers in urban areas such as Surakarta. Data of this study was obtained by a survey method that includes a quantitative approach from a sample of households in various sub-districts in Surakarta City. Through the analysis of the data obtained, this study explores the impact of rising rice prices on consumption patterns, changes in household budgets, and adaptation strategies implemented by consumers. The study's conclusions demonstrate that consumer spending patterns are not considerably impacted by the rise in rice prices following the election. In addition, the economic impact of the increase in rice prices also causes changes in household budget allocations, where consumers tend to prioritize spending on other basic needs. This study provides insight into how changes in food prices affect the economic well-being of households and provides recommendations for policymakers to consider interventions that can mitigate the negative impact of food price fluctuations

Understanding the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020

This paper analyzes inflation dynamics in 21 advanced and emerging market economies since 2020. We decompose inflation into core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate, and headline shocks—deviations of headline inflation from core. Headline shocks occurred largely on account of energy price changes, although food price changes and indicators of supply chain problems also played a role. We explain the evolution of core inflation with two factors: the strength of macroeconomic conditions—measured by the unemployment gap, the output gap, and the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment—and the pass-through into core inflation from past headline shocks. We conclude that the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020 largely reflected the direct and pass-through effects of headline shocks. Macroeconomic conditions generally played a secondary role. In the United States, estimated price pressures from strong macroeconomic conditions had been greater than in other economies but have eased.

From greedy grocers to carbon taxes and everything in between:

In Canada, the task of explaining food prices falls to a handful of grey literature reports that shape media coverage and public understanding and carry significant political and policy influence. We performed an in-depth analysis of fifty-one of these influential reports, including thirty-nine reports by Statistics Canada (including Consumer Price Index reports and other studies) and twelve reports from the Canada Food Price Report (CFPR) series. Our goal was twofold: 1) to identify and classify the various explanations given for food price changes, and 2) to evaluate the scientific rigor of these explanations. We identified 232 total explanations for food price changes, spread across seven thematic categories and thirty-two sub-categories. We find that most claims made in these reports are scientifically incomplete (only 28.6% of all claims meet established criteria for the completeness of scientific arguments). We also identify a lack of comprehensiveness in the areas of emphasis and the claims being presented and drivers being explored, particularly with respect to issues presently at the centre of food price discourse in Canada, such as the agency of grocers and other supply chain actors, corporate growth imperatives, and climate change. Considering the importance of food prices and food security to prosperity and well-being in Canada, we conclude with a series of recommendations for

7 - Food Price Changes and Consumption Adaptation Models In Enugu State, Nigeria Amidst Covid-19 Pandemic Shocks

The Covid-19 pandemic was a global disaster that affected the food security status of the world. This article examined food price changes and consumption adaptation models in Enugu State, Nigeria, to ascertain people’s consumption patterns and the usefulness of palliative measures given to them. Primary data was generated through a survey of eighty respondents. The secondary data was compiled from monthly reports of food prices by the National Bureau of Statistics and was analysed using descriptive statistics, the Consumer Price Index and chi-square tests. The price indices of food items like white garri and sweet potatoes showed very high inflation during the pandemic period. The number of households who ate only once a day increased, and those who ate three times a day decreased. The chi-square result on differences in eating habits and meal regimen before and during Covid-19 is significant. Many of the respondents received palliative aid during the pandemic. The article recommends that the government should encourage farmers to increase their production by providing them with loans and subsidies so that they may produce enough food in times of emergency like the pandemic.

Modelling the Volatility Inducement of Climate Change in Food Prices: The Role of Technological Shocks

We used a GARCH-MIDAS framework to demonstrate that, in addition to the food system, temperature anomalies can cause food price volatility. We show that technology shock can act as an effect modifier between food prices and climate change. We infer that initiatives targeted at mitigating climate change from causing excessive volatility in food prices should involve technology in addition to modification of food demand and supply processes.

Effects of food price changes on child undernutrition among agricultural households in Nigeria

This study examines the effects of changing food prices on the nutritional outcomes of children under five years old in Nigeria, utilising data from the 2013 and 2016 Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). We applied correlated random-effects probit and fixed-effects regression models to analyse the data. Results indicate an increase in stunting and decreases in wasting and underweight conditions among children over the years studied. Specifically, higher prices for fish, eggs, beef, rice, and cooking oil have a significant association with increased stunting, while increases in the prices of maize and garri are associated with greater wasting. Underweight increase with higher prices of milk, maize, and rice. In contrast, modest increases in yam and beans prices have not exacerbated undernutrition. The study also highlights the importance of household income growth and women's involvement in financial decisions in reducing child undernutrition. We advocate for agriculture-led, nutrition-sensitive policies that address the high costs of animal proteins and staples such as rice, maize, and garri, while monitoring and carefully regulating upticks in the prices of yam and beans.

International Linkages of Inflation‐Output Dynamics: Fresh GVAR Evidence from Pakistan and Its Trading Partners

The key purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between inflation and output dynamics in a global macroeconomic framework by utilising time‐series data from Pakistan and thirty‐two trading partners which account for around 95 per cent of foreign trade of Pakistan, over the period 1979Q2–2016Q4. By featuring the GVAR approach, this paper empirically examined the international linkages to account for cross‐country inflationary spillovers. The findings show that both foreign and global variables jointly and significantly matter for the inflation‐output relationship in developing economies, in general and, in particular, in the economy of Pakistan. The findings from general impulse response functions (GIRF) reveal that shocks to the US real output, oil prices and food prices are transmitted and settled quickly, and put forward a significant impact on real GDP and inflation in Pakistan and its trading partner economies. Inflation in Pakistan is driven more strongly by the global changes in oil and food prices than GDP. For monetary policy formulation, the central bank should take into account developments in inflation‐output dynamics of Pakistan's major trading partners.

Revisiting the relationship between Oil Price and Food Prices in the US: Evidence from Threshold Cointegration with Asymmetric Adjustment

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the interaction between oil and food prices using threshold cointegration analysis. The study uses monthly data from January 1997 to September 2020. Empirical results reveal evidence of asymmetry in the adjustment process toward equilibrium. Uni-directional causality is detected between the variables, with oil prices causing changes in food prices. Additionally, oil prices are found to be cointegrated with food prices, suggesting the presence of an asymmetric adjustment mechanism. Specifically, the speed of adjustment to equilibrium varies depending on the sign of the last equilibrium error. The study recommends that policymakers should consider adopting measures that promote energy diversification, sustainable agricultural practices, and price stabilization mechanisms to mitigate the impact of oil price fluctuations on food prices and to enhance overall economic stability.

THE EFFECT OF FOOD PRICE VOLATILITY (FPV) ON INFLATION IN PAREPARE CITY

Food price volatility often occurs and cannot be avoided, including food price volatility that occurs in Parepare City. The effect of movement or changes in food prices appears to influence inflation, which in turn becomes the purpose of this study, namely to analyze the effect of changes in food prices on inflation in Parepare City. The analysis method used is multiple linear regression analysis. The data used is secondary data in the form of monthly time series from July 2018 to June 2021. The independent variables in this study are the food prices of rice, chicken meat, red chili, chicken eggs and granulated sugar. The results showed that the food prices of rice and chicken eggs have an increasing trend while the prices of chicken meat, red chili, and granulated sugar tend to decrease. The coefficient of determination test results shows that changes in food prices simultaneously positively and significantly affect inflation. The t-statistical test shows that partially changes in food prices of rice and chicken meat have a positive and significant effect on inflation while changes in food prices of red chili, chicken eggs and granulated sugar have a positive but insignificant effect on inflation. This research has implications for public policy to develop food prices stabilization policies, such as food reserve policies, market regulations, incentives for food producers, or social assistance programs to alleviate the impact of food inflation.

Changes in UK price disparities between healthy and less healthy foods over 10 years: An updated analysis with insights in the context of inflationary increases in the cost-of-living from 2021

Food prices and affordability play an important role in influencing dietary choices, which in turn have implications for public health. With inflationary increases in the cost-of-living in the UK since 2021, understanding the dynamics of food prices becomes increasingly important. In this longitudinal study, we aimed to examine changes in food prices from 2013 to 2023 by food group and by food healthiness. We established a dataset spanning the years 2013–2023 by combining price data from the UK Consumer Price Index for food and beverage items with nutrient and food data from the UK nutrient databank and UK Department of Health & Social Care's National Diet and Nutrition Survey data. We calculated the price (£/100 kcal) for each food item by year as well as before and during the period of inflationary pressure, and classified items into food groups according to the UK Eatwell Guide and as either “more healthy" or “less healthy" using the UK nutrient profiling score model. In 2023, bread, rice, potatoes and pasta was cheapest (£0.12/100 kcal) and fruit and vegetables most expensive (£1.01/100 kcal). Less healthy food was cheaper than more healthy food (£0.33/100 kcal versus £0.81/100 kcal). Before the inflationary pressure period (from 2013 to late 2021), the price of foods decreased by 3%. After this period, the price of food increased by 22%: relative increases were highest in the food group milk and dairy food (31%) and less healthy category (26%). While healthier foods saw smaller relative price increases since 2021, they remain more expensive, potentially exacerbating dietary inequalities. Policy responses should ensure food affordability and mitigate price disparities via, for example, healthy food subsidies.

High-Frequency Volatility Modeling of Chinese Agricultural Products Market Based on Garch-Type Models

The modeling of high-frequency volatility is of utmost importance in comprehending market dynamics and the characteristics of risk. The adoption of high-frequency volatility modeling in the agricultural sector has the potential to enhance risk management for food production enterprises through the utilization of hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of food price changes. The GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) class of models is well-suited for the analysis and prediction of volatility in financial time series. These models effectively capture the highest level of volatility observed in the time series data. Therefore, this research utilizes one-minute trade data of the Wind Agriculture Index (886045.WI) to examine the efficacy and predictability of several GARCH class volatility models. When it comes to fitting the data within the sample, the TGARCH model demonstrates superior performance compared to both the GARCH and EGARCH models. The fluctuations in the price changes of the Wind Agriculture Index exhibit characteristics of time variability and clustering, which can be attributed to the relatively low barriers for entry and exit in the agricultural planting sector. Simultaneously, within the agricultural market, an imbalance is observed whereby the influence of positive information on price volatility surpasses that of negative information.

Examining the U-shaped relationship between non-agricultural sources water pollution and the urban-rural income gap.

Determining how the economy and society interact with the environment of water quality is essential to determining the financial impact of green development. Based on China's provincial panel data from 2010 to 2021, this research considers non-agricultural sources of water pollution (NASWP) as a negative factor of production, investigates its influence on the urban-rural divide, and explains the mechanism of action. The empirical results show that there is a significant correlation between NASWP and the urban-rural gap, with a "U-shaped" relationship between the two. Water pollution first reduces and then increases the urban-rural income gap, and the results are robust after considering endogeneity. Mechanistic research demonstrates that NASWP cause a loss in food output, which in combination with changes in food prices and food subsidy programs impacts the incomes of rural dwellers, thereby having an influence on the urban-rural income gap. Using the threshold effect model, it is discovered that under the combined influence of agricultural mechanization and food subsidy policy, the relationship between NASWP and urban-rural income divide exhibits an U-shape in areas with high agricultural mechanization and an "inverted U" shape in areas with low agricultural mechanization.

The Asymmetric Effect Of Oil Price On Food Price And Gold Price?

Economically, the relationships among gold prices, oil prices, and food prices have been a critical factor for every country. This study aims to investigate the asymmetric relationship between gold prices, food prices, and oil prices. As a contribution to the literature, the study also considers the post-COVID-19 pandemic period, which is a crucial event. The study examines whether the changes in global gold and food prices were caused by changes in oil prices, using the asymmetric causality test developed by Hatemi-j, for the period covering 2005:1-2023:10. During the COVID-19 period from 2020:1 to 2023:10, the relationship between variables is discussed separately. The analysis findings for the main period reveal a significant causal relationship between global food prices and oil prices. Furthermore, it has been established that a negative shock in global food prices negatively impacts oil prices, while a positive shock in global food prices positively impacts oil prices. In the mirror period, it is evident that the positive shock in oil prices had a negative effect on gold prices. In the post-COVID-19 period, it has been concluded that the negative shock in oil prices had a positive effect on gold prices. The study has also established a significant causal relationship between global food prices and oil prices. The results obtained according to the new economic conditions that emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to provide more accurate information to future studies and policy makers.

Assessing the distributional impacts of ambitious carbon pricing in China's agricultural sector

Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector play an important role in the global warming process. The carbon neutrality target pledged by China accelerates the research and implementation of climate mitigation policies. This study assessed the distributional impacts of carbon pricing on the agricultural sector from a multi-regional CGE model subdividing 12 primary agricultural sectors, 15 processed food sectors and 10 groups of households. The results revealed that in an agricultural carbon tax scenario under 1.5 °C target, emission-intensive food products (red meat and dairy products) experienced rapid price increases (4.22% and 3.14%) and consumption decreases (−6.61% and − 4.30%). The poorest rural households experienced the highest losses of 2.05% in protein and 1.42% in energy due to the decline in food consumption. Regressive welfare impacts were also observed, with the loss of rural residents being 1.3 times that of urban residents. The poorest income quintile tended to suffer a larger loss due to their higher share of food expenditures and greater vulnerability to changes in food prices. Furthermore, income inequality increased under the agricultural carbon tax, and the Gini coefficient increased by 0.57% compared with the BAU scenario in 2050, especially for the northern and southwestern regions. Tax revenue recycling focusing on the poor can help to offset the negative effects by expanding their income. Overall, a carefully designed carbon policy for the agricultural sector could help reduce carbon emissions while protecting vulnerably poor people and regions.

Food security amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Asia: Evidence from rural Tajikistan

Food security has been long understudied in the context of Central Asia. We present an analysis examining household-level food demand for Tajikistan and assessing the magnitude of its food security changes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on an extensive household survey data set from Tajikistan, we estimate the expenditure, income, and price elasticities for nine food categories using the QUAIDS model. Then, we develop a microsimulation model using the estimated elasticities to assess the dual impact of declining remittance income and rising food prices stemming from the pandemic shock. There are significant differences in demand elasticities across food groups, with high elasticities observed for nutritious foods, such as meat, fruit, eggs, and milk, in rural households. Moreover, our findings show that changes in remittance income and food prices significantly negatively affected food security for rural households during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings have important implications for policymakers concerned about rural livelihoods and food security in remittance-receiving economies during the post-pandemic period.