Sea Surface Temperature Fluctuations Research Articles

Logistic curve modelling of sea surface temperature and latent heat flux variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean

The Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change due to its unique ocean-atmosphere interactions. The region is characterized by warm temperatures, high evaporation rates, and strong convection, making it particularly vulnerable to greenhouse gases. This susceptibility leads to an overall trend of warming across the Earth's surface and atmosphere, intensifying sea surface temperatures (SST) and increasing evaporation rates, consequently influencing Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF). The strong influence of both SST and SLHF on atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns makes them critical factors in determining the region's climate, particularly in monsoon-dominated regions. Analysis reveals a consistent upward trend in both SST and SLHF in the central region of TIO. To model this, standard Logistic Curve Model (LCM) has been applied to these parameters averaged over the central region of the TIO. The model is run for a period of 20 years from 2001 to 2020, grouped into four lustrums. The LCM-derived SST and SLHF are in good consistent with observed datasets during the above periods with, correlation coefficients ranging from 0.92 to 0.96 for SST and 0.86–0.90 for SLHF. Extending the model spatially across the entire TIO region explains the ability to project fluctuations in SST and SLHF values across different seasons. These findings highlight the model's relevance for capturing short-term, long-term, and seasonal variability of the parameters, providing important insights into regional climate dynamics.

Characteristics of mesoscale eddies in the Mozambique Channel.

The mesoscale eddy characteristics of the Mozambique Warm Current were investigated by detecting and tracking satellite altimetry data from 2010 to 2019. A total of 1,086 eddies were identified in the Mozambique Channel, comprising 509 cyclonic eddies and 577 anticyclonic eddies. The results revealed that the bay area on the northwest coast of Madagascar was the main hotspot of eddy generation, and the mean amplitude and radius of the anticyclonic eddies in the Mozambique Channel were 24.23 cm and 82.7 km, respectively, which are larger than those of the cyclonic eddies. Local wind forcing had a significant impact on the formation of mesoscale eddies in the Mozambique Channel. In winter, the wind stress in the northern and southern areas of the Mozambique Channel exhibited a strong correlation with the distribution of eddy kinetic energy (EKE), where both monsoonal winds in the north and trade winds in the south could facilitate mesoscale anticyclonic eddy formation. In addition, the variability in the number of anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies in the Mozambique Channel may have exerted a significant influence on the seasonal anomalous fluctuations in local sea surface temperatures (SSTs). This study presented a novel analysis of the mesoscale eddy characteristics in the Mozambique Channel.

Sea Surface Temperature Prediction in China Sea Based on SAM-LSTM Approach

Sea Surface Temperature (SST), a critical environmental element in the ocean, significantly impacts the global atmosphere-ocean energy balance and holds the potential to trigger severe weather like droughts, floods, and El Niño events. Therefore, the prediction of future SST dynamics is crucial to identifying these extreme events and mitigating the damage they caused. In this study, we introduce a time series prediction method based on the Self-Attention Mechanism-Long Short-Term Memory (SAM-LSTM) model. In addition, the historical time-series satellite data of SST anomaly (SSTA) is used instead of SST itself considering that the fluctuations of SST are very small compared to their absolute magnitudes. The Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) method is adopted to decompose the complex non-linear SSTA time series into trend components, seasonal components, and residual components. Then, the deseasonalized time series data at 6 locations in the Bohai Sea are used to train and valid the developed SAM-LSTM model. After that, the validated models are applied to the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea. The experimental results show that the combination of STL time series decomposition and SAM-LSTM can achieve high-precision prediction of daily SSTA than LSTM. This suggests that the methodology used in this paper has a good application for short-term daily SST prediction.

The response to ENSO under global warming

This investigation explores the impact of global warming on the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a pivotal climatic phenomenon with far-reaching consequences for worldwide weather patterns and ecosystems. In the context of ongoing endeavors to mitigate climate change, comprehending ENSO's response assumes a position of utmost significance. Current research suggests that the amplitudes of ENSO events may intensify in response to elevated temperatures, linked to non-linear increments in atmospheric water vapor. Furthermore, careful analysis reveals an augmented variability in sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations during the 21st century compared to prior periods. The research also sheds light on the concurrent existence and interactions of Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) ENSO variations in the context of a warming climate. Ongoing investigations are committed to unraveling the intricacies of these phenomena and their implications for future climatic patterns. Nevertheless, uncertainties persist regarding the drivers of CP-type ENSO and heightened amplitudes, with some attributing these changes to global warming while others associate them with multidecadal rhythms.

Interhemispheric propagation of seasonal sea surface temperature fluctuations over the western Pacific in CMIP6

AbstractInterannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the western Pacific is a critical research topic in climate change, as it can significantly impact regional and global weather patterns. Previous observational studies have shown that SST in the southwestern Pacific (SWP) can effectively serve as a precursor signal for SST in the western tropical Pacific (WTP). In this study, we evaluate and compare the modelling capabilities of 32 CMIP6 models to simulate the relationship between SWP and WTP SST. The results indicate that while some CMIP6 models can simulate the spatial connection and physical processes between the SWP and WTP, there are significant intermodel differences. Specifically, the models that best simulate the cross‐equatorial propagation of SWP SST anomalies are those that accurately simulate the cross‐equatorial wind anomalies induced by SWP SST anomalies, highlighting the key role of wind‐evaporation‐SST feedback in SST propagation. Further analysis reveals that the intermodel spread in cross‐equatorial SST propagation is attributable to model biases in simulating climatological SST and wind speed. Models with warm climatological equatorial SST and strong wind speeds provide favourable conditions for the cross‐equatorial propagation of SWP‐related SST anomalies towards the north. Warm SST and strong inter‐season wind speeds near the equator facilitate the northward propagation of the SWP warm signal, leading to increased warming in the WTP.

Enhanced North Pacific Victoria mode in a warming climate

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), renowned as the dominant sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation in the North Pacific and extensively scrutinized for its extensive influence on global climate patterns, stands in stark contrast to the Victoria mode (VM). Traditionally, the VM, representing the second most prominent SST pattern in the North Pacific, has not garnered comparable attention. However, our investigation unveils a remarkable surge in the low-frequency VM variability, spanning periods greater than 8 years, over the course of a century. Astonishingly, this enhanced VM variability now surpasses the PDO’s variability in recent decades, signifying a notable shift. Consequently, the heightened VM variability assumes newfound significance in shaping climate systems across the entire North Pacific region and in distant locales. This intensified VM behavior could be attributed to amplified atmospheric variability in the Hawaiian region, primarily stemming from the reinforced variability in the tropical central Pacific (CP) SST in recent decades. As greenhouse warming escalates CP SST variability, the VM’s enhanced variability may further intensify, yielding broader and more profound repercussions in the future.

MtDNA data reveal disparate population structures and High Arctic colonization patterns in three intertidal invertebrates with contrasting life history traits

IntroductionPost-glacial climate variation is known to have influenced the distribution of marine species in the North Atlantic. In particular, the Atlantic side of the Arctic has experienced strong fluctuations in both atmospheric and sea surface temperature, as well as seasonal ice coverage since the last glacial maximum (LGM). Here, we aim to unveil the phylogeography and historical demography of three rocky intertidal marine invertebrates showing a trans-Atlantic distribution and presently inhabiting the Arctic: Gammarus oceanicus, Littorina saxatilis and Semibalanus balanoides.MethodsWe used a large amount of mitochondrial DNA barcode data, both newly-obtained and stored in public databases. We performed phylogeographic and demographic analyses on 1119 G. oceanicus, 205 L. saxatilis, and 884 S. balanoides sequences.ResultsOur results show that all three of these boreal species have expanded their effective population sizes in the high Arctic Svalbard Archipelago since the LGM. Analyses investigating the origin of all these populations point to the eastern Atlantic.DiscussionBased on our results we conclude that the expansion of these boreal species to the Arctic possibly happened during an earlier warm cycle of the Holocene era, and is probably not the result of the recent ‘Atlantification’ of the Arctic. We also discuss the effects of dispersal potential on population structure as an important aspect of comparative biogeographical studies.

Late holocene paleoenvironmental reconstruction from beachrocks and hybrid carbonates in southeastern Brazil

Contrary to the assertion of “the relative climate stability of the Holocene over the last 11,700 years”, many studies reveal climatic and relative sea level (RSL) fluctuations during the Late Holocene. This work presents dated records of carbon isotopes in faciological profiles of hybrid carbonates (hybrid carbonates and bindstones) associated with beachrocks (quartzarenites and bioclastic quartzarenites) in the Parati beach, Espírito Santo state, southeast coast of Brazil, during the last 2600 years. The concentrations of Si, Ca, Mg, and Sr (μg.g−1) and the molar ratios of Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca and Sr/Mg, associated with the values of δ13C and δ18O, enabled the differentiation of the abiotic and biotic origin of the cementation processes of the identified lithofacies. The results obtained show fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) between 2600 and 700 years cal. BP. The different conditions of lithofacies formation indicate changes in ocean circulation (such as temperature, salinity, intensification of South Atlantic Central Water - ACAS) and in climate (precipitation and evaporation) on a local and regional scale during the Late Holocene. The evidence observed in the beach of Parati can be added to the hypothesis of coupling between the variability of the Brazil Current associated with AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) and the positioning and intensification of the SACZ (South Atlantic Convergence Zone), during the Late Holocene on the southeastern shelf of South America.

Mid-to-late Holocene climate variability in coastal East Asia and its impact on ancient Korean societies

The sustainability of human societies is contingent upon our ability to accurately predict the effects of future climate change on the global environment and humanity. Wise responses to forthcoming environmental alterations require extensive knowledge from historical precedents. However, in coastal East Asia, a region with a long history of agriculture, it is challenging to obtain paleoenvironmental proxy data without anthropogenic disturbances that can be used to assess the impact of late Holocene climate change on local communities. This study introduces a high-resolution multi-proxy sedimentary record from an isolated crater in Jeju Island, Korea, to elucidate the mechanisms underlying mid-to-late Holocene climate change and its impacts on ancient societies. Our findings suggest that hydroclimate changes were predominantly governed by sea surface temperature fluctuations in the western tropical Pacific, with low-frequency variability in solar activity and a decrease in summer insolation identified as primary drivers of temperature change. Moreover, ancient societies on the Korean peninsula were significantly affected by recurring cooling events, including the 2.8 ka event, 2.3 ka event, Late Antique Little Ice Age, maunder minimum, and others.

A statistical analysis of tropical salinity and its relationship to SST, highlighting two contrasting areas

Tropical air-sea interactions, near-surface salinity (Ss), and sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations are studied via ocean reanalysis products in the period 1980–2020. The statistical work considers how the net heat and water balance affects mixed layer depth (MLD) and coupling between the upper ocean and atmosphere. Field correlations of Ss – SST exhibit significant negative values in tropical latitudes 10S-15 N, between the semi-permanent marine anticyclones and the equatorial trough. Highlighting contrasts in two areas: the tropical east Atlantic and subtropical southwest Indian Ocean, annual cycles, inter-annual fluctuations of 6 – 8 yr, and long-term downward trends of Ss emerge. The SW Indian Ocean exhibits large swings of net heat and water balance as the monsoon reverses, and steady running-correlations of Ss and SST. The E Atlantic has a subdued annual cycle, and running-correlations are weak and unsteady. In both areas the Ss lags SST by a month. A fresh minus salty composite analysis reveals that the two contrasting areas respond to opposing phases of the Southern Oscillation: E Atlantic (La Nina) and SW Indian (El Nino). Projected long-term trends for increased tropical marine rainfall could be neutralized by declining runoff from continental monsoons. Statistical outcomes infer that a 0.1 ppt reduction of near-surface salinity leads to a 5 m reduction of MLD and a 0.4 C increase of tropical SST, contributing to deeper atmospheric convection. Limitations of the study derive from inferences based on infrequent salinity measurements.

Impact of Diurnal Warm Layers on Atmospheric Convection

AbstractThis manuscript presents a study of oceanic diurnal warm layers (DWLs) in kilometer‐scale global coupled simulations and their impact on atmospheric convection in the tropics. With the implementation of thin vertical levels in the ocean, DWLs are directly resolved, and sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations of up to several Kelvin appear in regions with low wind and high solar radiation. The increase of SST during the day causes an abrupt afternoon increase of atmospheric moisture due to enhanced latent heat flux (LHF), followed by an increase in cloud cover (CC) and cloud liquid water (CLW). However, although the diurnal SST amplitude is even exaggerated in comparison to reanalysis, this effect only lasts for 5–6 hr and leads to an absolute difference of 1% for CC and 0.01 kg m−2 for CLW. This can be explained by the fact that the low wind over the SST anomalies dampens their potential effect on the LHF and hence clouds. All in all, the impact of DWLs on convective CC is found to be negligible in the tropical mean.

Tropical coral reefs in Sri Lanka are threatened due to the fluctuation of seasonal and interannual sea surface temperature.

The thermal stress of oceans causes coral bleaching, which induces loss of life in coral reefs and makes them exposed to other threats which directly and indirectly affect millions of other species that inhabit the reef. However, studies focusing on how those thermal stresses affect Sri Lankan fringing reef ecosystems are scarce. Hence, the patterns of long-term and short-term fluctuations of sea surface temperature (SST) over the shallow reefs around the country were studied by separating them into different zones as the eastern coast (Passikudha, Kayankerni, Adukkuparu, Parrot Rock, and Pigeon Island), the southern coast (Beruwala Barbarian, Hikkaduwa, Unawatuna, Ahangama, Mirissa, Madiha, Polhena, and Devundara), and northern-northwestern coasts (Valiththoondal, Palk Bay, Mannar, Kalpitiya, Thalwila, and Uswatakeiyawa). The 1km Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) Level 4 SST dataset was used to analyze seasonal and interannual SST variability from 2005 to 2021. The data were correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Ekman velocity, and wind stress curl. The annual, seasonal, and monthly variability of SST on different coasts is significantly different. Higher increasing trends of SST from 0.0324 to 0.0411 ℃/year are observed on different coasts, and most of the time higher positive anomalies are recorded after 2014. The First Inter Monsoon (IM-1) and the month of April are more critical since they reach the maximum SST, and the minimum is in the North West Monsoon (NWM) and January. Significant positive relationships are recorded between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index and the monthly average SST on different coasts, which was robust on the southern coast. Therefore, tropical coral reefs in Sri Lanka are severely threatened due elevation of SST by global warming and climate variability.

Atmospheric dust intrusions from the peninsular region into the Northern Gulf of California: case study

Through atmospheric transport, coming from the mainland, an important amount of dust arrives to surface waters of open-ocean regions and many coastal zones. Semi-arid and desert areas tend to act as important sources of dust. The Gulf of California (GC) is one of the most productive marginal seas of the world, and it is surrounded by the semi-arid deserts located in Baja California Peninsula, United States, and Sonora (Mexico). Dust fluxes coming from the BCP during the summer are relevant due to biological impact on the California Gulf. In the northern region of the BCP, meteorological events have not been well studied. These events are known in popular slang as "El Torito". The characterization of a dust event that originated in the Baja California Peninsula (BCP) on June 14, 2016, is presented. Meteorological variables (from North American Regional Reanalysis -NARR), daily sea surface temperature, and aerosol optical thickness (from MODIS) are used to explain the dust event genesis, are used. Results suggest that sea surface temperature fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of the BCP generate changes in hydrometeorological variables (wind, relative humidity, and atmospheric pressure) that can give rise to dust events. The June 14 dust storm originates in the San Felipe desert and disperses aeolian to the northern Gulf of California, as shown by aerosol optical thickness images and trajectories simulated with the HYSPLIT model, which establishes vertical distributions with predominant heights between 0 and 500 m.

Identification of Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly during Earthquake in Southern Java Island using Google Earth Engine Datasets

The certainty of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly during earthquakes in Java Island was still not clear identified. This research tried to identify any possibilities of SST anomaly during earthquake in Southern Java Island. It used Google Earth Engine datasets including daily NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI): Sea Surface Temperature Version 2 which has resolution of 0.25 arc degrees for 20 years and processed them to depict SST trends in pre-earthquake and post-earthquake situation. The statistic test of t-Test Paired Two Sample was also applied to certain the significant difference of SST in both situations. SST fluctuation during the earthquake was still inconsistent and unclear to consider as an anomaly. There were other complicated factors excluding earthquake to influence SST fluctuation. The earthquake did not trigger directly to fluctuate SST, even not to make it being an anomaly.

Interannual Variability of the Australian Summer Monsoon Sustained through Internal Processes: Wind–Evaporation Feedback, Dynamical Air–Sea Interaction, and Soil Moisture Memory

Abstract In northern Australia (NAUS), mean rainfall during the Australian summer monsoon (AUSM) season exhibits distinct interannual variability despite weak influence from tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The present study investigates mechanisms for the strong and persistent rainfall anomalies throughout the AUSM season. When the AUSM is stronger than normal, the low-level monsoonal circulation intensifies in response to the stronger convective activity over NAUS. The intensified surface westerlies over the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO) enhance oceanic evaporation locally and downstream moisture transport into NAUS. This wind–evaporation feedback is verified through a moist static energy budget analysis. For this feedback to work effectively, SST cooling due to the stronger AUSM should be weak enough not to suppress the oceanic evaporation in the tropical SEIO. Our mixed layer heat budget analysis based on an ocean model hindcast experiment reveals that anomalous downwelling in the subsurface SEIO, which is induced dynamically by the intensified monsoon westerlies, partially offsets the SST cooling. The land surface evaporation over the continental inland area is also enhanced significantly in the middle and later portions of the monsoon season associated with increased soil moisture, suggesting its memory effect for the persistence of rainfall anomalies. The AUSM variability can therefore be regarded as a self-sustaining internal variability in the atmosphere–ocean–land surface coupled system, rather than just an atmospheric internal variability. Significance Statement We aim to understand why summer monsoon rainfall in northern Australia varies markedly from one year to another even under the weak influence of large-scale sea surface temperature fluctuations, such as El Niño/La Niña. Our analyses based mainly on observational datasets reveal that wind-induced changes in oceanic evaporation south of Java significantly modulates the water vapor transport into northern Australia. We also find that ocean dynamics helps this wind–evaporation feedback process and continental soil moisture may act to prolong anomalous rainfall by its memory effect. This study shows the self-sustaining nature of the Australian summer monsoon variability under the atmosphere–ocean–land surface interactions, which deepens our understandings of the monsoon system.

Multidecadal Fluctuations of SST and Euphotic Zone Temperature off Northwest Africa

Abstract The Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) switched from a cool to a warm phase in 1995 and the mean euphotic zone (EZT) and sea surface temperature (SST) shifted upward by 0.57° and 0.69°C, respectively, between 1982–91 and 2006–15 in the Atlantic region off northwest Africa. This ocean margin has many marine fisheries, and water temperature fluctuations may cause fish there to switch their habitats. Net radiation flux did not significantly change between these two decades. So, we hypothesized that the key driver of the EZT and SST increase is wind, which controls turbulent (sensible and latent) heat exchange with the atmosphere as well as bulk vertical and horizontal heat transport. Using satellite-derived SST and atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses to analyze the ocean top-200-m heat budget, we compared the relative contributions of the heat budget components to the cyclical changes in EZT and SST between these two decades. Results showed that the dominant heat source is horizontal heat flux convergence: weaker northeasterly trades and stronger southerly winds and monsoon enabled the southerly winds to drive warm water northward that subsequently warmed the domain. The dominant heat sink is latent heat loss: onshore–offshore atmospheric pressure gradients caused a complex wind adjustment that enabled the Sahara wind to accelerate evaporation over large subregions. These results highlight the important roles of ocean heat transport and atmosphere–ocean coupling for the tropical branch of the AMV. The regional EZT and SST anomalies associated with this AMV phase switch are mainly a consequence of wind-driven processes occurring at larger spatial scales.

Sea Surface Temperature Trends in the Coastal Zone of Southern England

Kassem, H.; Amos, C.L., and Thompson, C.E.L., 2023. Sea surface temperature trends in the coastal zone of southern England. Journal of Coastal Research, 39(1), 18–31. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. Sea surface temperature (SST) trends along the south coast of England (northern English Channel) were examined based on data from systematic buoy measurements deployed by the National Network of Regional Coastal Monitoring Programmes of England (NNRCMP) since 2003. These data were supplemented with: (1) long-term, coastal SST measurements by the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS); (2) global data sets compiled by the Hadley Centre since 1900, and (3) satellite-derived observations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (Aqua) since 2002. These data sets were used to evaluate de-seasoned nearshore trends in SST along the south coast of England and examine links to regional ocean-atmosphere teleconnections. The analyses of long-term, CEFAS data support the proposal that prior to the mid-1980s there were no de-seasoned trends in SST and conditions from year to year were relatively stable. Subsequently, interannual fluctuations appear to have increased, associated with a period of warming between 1985 and 2003 (0.28 °C/decade). Post 2003, interannual fluctuations in SST monitored by the NNRCMP buoys continued, and the warming trend appears to be greater (0.42 °C/decade). This trend in SST is greatest in the nearshore and decreases with distance offshore. The warming in SST also varied greatly from month to month. The greatest warming took place from December to March, whilst the least heating (and sometimes cooling) occurred between September and November. Analysis of Hadley (HadSST1.1) and MODIS data sets substantiated these trends. The greatest warming (post 2003) was found west of Portland Bill (up to 0.76 °C/decade) and decreased towards the Strait of Dover. Despite this west-to-east trend, all 12 NNRCMP stations between Penzance and Folkestone showed remarkably similar results, suggesting regional and global sources of heat rather than local sources. This is corroborated through wavelet coherence analysis linking SST anomalies to regional/global ocean-atmosphere teleconnection indices at seasonal scales.

Pengaruh suhu permukaan laut terhadap hasil tangkapan ikan Tuna Sirip Kuning (Thunnus albacares) di Perairan Barat Sumatera Barat

This study aims to look at fluctuations in sea surface temperature and also the relationship between sea surface temperature and yellowfin tuna catches in West Waters, West Sumatra Province. The research method used is a survey method, namely collecting field data by conducting direct observations, as well as interviews with local fishermen and spatial analysis methods are used to obtain the distribution of sea surface temperatures. The results of this study indicate that the average sea surface temperature in 2019-2021 ranges from 26.99 - 31.21 oC, where the average maximum temperature ranges from 31.21 oC in March 2020 and the average minimum temperature ranges from 26, 99 oC in October 2019. The results of simple linear regression analysis show a correlation coefficient value of 0.857 and a coefficient of determination value of 0.756.

Thermal tolerance, safety margins and acclimation capacity assessments reveal the climate vulnerability of large yellow croaker aquaculture

With the ongoing climate change, marine aquaculture and other food production sectors will face new significant challenges in the next century. Despite the importance of these new challenges, understanding the dynamic thermal tolerance and thermal safety status of some major culture species remains scarce, including large yellow croaker (Larimichthys crocea), the most productive mariculture fish in China. Here, we conducted a relatively complete thermal biology assessment of cultured large yellow croaker using long-term acclimation experiments, critical thermal testing and the collected habitat sea surface temperature (SST) data. Changes in body size, oxidative stress and metabolic biomarkers during acclimation were also measured to evaluate the effects of prolonged thermal stress on performance. Results showed that the critical thermal limits of large yellow croaker acclimated at 11–30 °C ranged from 5.27 °C to 36.64 °C, and the total thermal tolerance zone was 444.74 °C2. Thermal limits increased as acclimation temperature rise, and the estimated acclimation response ratios ranged from 0.32 to 0.63, showing obvious thermal plasticity. The estimated post-acclimation thermal sensitivity values (0.80–1.28) for large yellow croaker acclimated at 11–30 °C were close to 1, and the heat- (5.78 °C) and cold-thermal safety margins (6.33 °C) were both high, showing sufficient thermal tolerance to cope with current observed highest SST and the predicted SST caused by climate change. However, performance results showed that long-term exposure to 30 °C would induce energy redistribution and tradeoffs between health/growth and heat tolerance, leading to significantly decreased body weight and increased superoxide dismutase activity in the gill. This result indicates a potential disadvantage of growing large yellow croaker in floating sea-cages, because the shallow culture depth, high density and limited moving spaces in this farming mode make the fish susceptible to fluctuations in SSTs, constrain their ability in behavioral thermoregulation, and increase the risks of hypoxia and disease infections. Thus, these tradeoffs may make the current floating sea-cage farming more vulnerable to elevated temperatures on production. Finally, since our recorded highest in situ SST and warming rate (in summer) have reached up to 30.1 °C and 1.2 °C/d, we propose that the large yellow croaker farms currently operating in the main producing area of China are already at the risk of summer heatwaves. In the future, more efforts should be made to the selection of heat-resilient strains or the exploration of alternative farming systems in large yellow croaker aquaculture industry to avoid or mitigate potential production decline.

Diversity dynamics of microfossils from the Cretaceous to the Neogene show mixed responses to events.

Microfossils have a ubiquitous and well‐studied fossil record with temporally and spatially fluctuating diversity, but how this arises and how major events affect speciation and extinction is uncertain. We present one of the first applications of PyRate to a micropalaeontological global occurrence dataset, reconstructing diversification rates within a Bayesian framework from the Mesozoic to the Neogene in four microfossil groups: planktic foraminiferans, calcareous nannofossils, radiolarians and diatoms. Calcareous and siliceous groups demonstrate opposed but inconsistent responses in diversification. Radiolarian origination increases from c. 104 Ma, maintaining high rates into the Cenozoic. Calcareous microfossil diversification rates significantly declines across the Cretaceous–Palaeogene boundary, while rates in siliceous microfossil groups remain stable until the Paleocene–Eocene transition. Diversification rates in the Cenozoic are largely stable in calcareous groups, whereas the Palaeogene is a turbulent time for diatoms. Diversification fluctuations are driven by climate change and fluctuations in sea surface temperatures, leading to different responses in the groups generating calcareous or siliceous microfossils. Extinctions are apparently induced by changes in anoxia, acidification and stratification; speciation tends to be associated with upwelling, productivity and ocean circulation. These results invite further micropalaeontological quantitative analysis and study of the effects of major transitions in the fossil record. Despite extensive occurrence data, regional diversification events were not recovered; neither were some global events. These unexpected results show the need to consider multiple spatiotemporal levels of diversity and diversification analyses and imply that occurrence datasets of different clades may be more appropriate for testing some hypotheses than others.