Interest Rate Fluctuations Research Articles

Interest rate volatility and home mortgage loans

The US economy has experienced substantial fluctuations in real and nominal interest rates since the 1970s. This article investigates empirically the relationship between home mortgage loans and volatility in mortgage rates for the period 1971:02 to 2003:03. Contrary to common wisdom, we find a positive relationship between mortgage rate volatility and home mortgage loans. Further investigation indicates that this is due to volatility in the bond market. In times of high interest volatility, households disinvest in government securities and invest in real assets, which yields a positive relationship between mortgage rate volatility and home mortgage loans.

Habit formation and the equity–premium puzzle: a skeptical view

We argue that, ceteris paribus, introducing a habit that resolves the equity–premium puzzle is equivalent to increasing the Arrow-Pratt coefficient of relative risk aversion, AP-RRA. If we constrain the AP-RRA to a constant ‘acceptable’ level, the effect on the equity premium is quantitatively insignificant. In a dynamic setting, the fluctuations of the habit increase the equity premium, slightly, though generates unrealistic fluctuations in the risk-free interest rate. We conclude a habit is observationally equivalent, up to a first-order approximation, to a higher AP-RRA and to a preference shock. These effects cannot resolve the equity–premium puzzle.

A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China

As the Chinese economy becomes more market based and continues its rapid integration into the global economy, having an independent and effective monetary policy regime oriented to domestic objectives will become increasingly important. Employing modern principles of monetary policy in light of the current state of China’s financial institutions, we motivate and p resent a package of proposals to guide the operation of a new monetary policy regime. Specifically, we recommend an explicit low long - run inflation objective, operational independence for the People’s Bank of China (PBC) with formal strategic guidance from the government, and a minimal set of financial sector reforms (to make the Chinese banking system robust against interest rate fluctuations). We argue that anchoring monetary policy with an explicit inflation objective would be the most reliable way for t he PBC to tie down inflation expectations, and thereby enable monetary policy to make the best contribution to macroeconomic and financial stability, as well as economic growth. The management and monitoring of money (and credit) growth by the PBC would co ntinue to play a useful role in the stabilization of inflation, but a money target would not constitute a good stand - alone nominal anchor.

Two-Fund Separation In Dynamic General Equilibrium

This paper examines the two-fund separation paradigm in the context of an infinite-horizon general equilibrium model with dynamically complete markets and heterogeneous consumers with time- and state-separable utility functions. With the exception of the dynamic structure, we maintain the assumptions of the classical static models that exhibit two-fund separation with a riskless security. Agents have equi-cautious HARA utility functions. In addition to a security with state-independent payoffs, agents can trade a collection of assets with dividends followingatime-homogeneousMarkovprocess. Wemakenofurtherassumptions about the distribution of asset dividends, returns, or prices. If the riskless security in the economy is a consol then agents’ portfolios exhibit two-fund separation. However, if agents can trade only a one-period bond, this result no longer holds. The underlying intuition is that general equilibrium restrictions lead to interest rate fluctuations that destroy the optimality of two-fund separation in economies with a one-period bond and result in different equilibrium portfolios.

Money in an Estimated Business Cycle Model of the Euro Area

This article examines the role of money in a small-scale dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro zone estimated by maximum likelihood. The model allows for both intertemporal and intratemporal non-separability in preferences. We find, first, that real balances do not affect the marginal utility of consumption. Second, money demand shocks mainly help to forecast real balances while real shocks explain the bulk of price, output and interest rates fluctuations. Third, the calculation of the natural rate of interest reveals that the evolution of the interest rate is mostly accounted for by the real sources of fluctuations.

A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China

As China's economy becomes more market based and continues its rapid integration into the global economy, having an independent and effective monetary policy regime oriented to domestic objectives will become increasingly important. Employing modern principles of monetary policy in light of the current state of China's financial institutions, we motivate and present a package of proposals to guide the operation of a new monetary policy regime. Specifically, we recommend an explicit low long-run inflation objective, operational independence for the People's Bank of China (PBC) with formal strategic guidance from the government, and a minimal set of financial sector reforms (to make the Chinese banking system robust against interest rate fluctuations). We argue that anchoring monetary policy with an explicit inflation objective would be the most reliable way for the PBC to tie down inflation expectations, and thereby enable monetary policy to make the best contribution to macroeconomic and financial stability, as well as economic growth. The management and monitoring of money (and credit) growth by the PBC would continue to play a useful role in the stabilization of inflation, but a money target would not constitute a good stand-alone nominal anchor.

A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China

As China's economy becomes more market based and continues its rapid integration into the global economy, having an independent and effective monetary policy regime oriented to domestic objectives will become increasingly important. Employing modern principles of monetary policy in light of the current state of China's financial institutions, we motivate and present a package of proposals to guide the operation of a new monetary policy regime. Specifically, we recommend an explicit low long-run inflation objective, operational independence for the People's Bank of China (PBC) with formal strategic guidance from the government, and a minimal set of financial sector reforms (to make the Chinese banking system robust against interest rate fluctuations). We argue that anchoring monetary policy with an explicit inflation objective would be the most reliable way for the PBC to tie down inflation expectations, and thereby enable monetary policy to make the best contribution to macroeconomic and financial stability, as well as economic growth. The management and monitoring of money (and credit) growth by the PBC would continue to play a useful role in the stabilization of inflation, but a money target would not constitute a good stand-alone nominal anchor.

Real estate loan delinquency, property prices and alternative income opportunities

AbstractEvidence is shown, using US real estate default data from 1987–2004, that high default rates on mortgages are associated with prior period housing prices, rental income, inflation‐adjusted household median income and interest rate fluctuations. This paper investigates the proposition: that the percentage of real estate defaults is a function of alternative income opportunities. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mechanismus stabilizace ultrakrátkých úrokových sazeb prostřednictvím repo operací České národní banky

Effectiveness of actual monetary policy depends on the ability of central banks to stabilize the fluctuations of overnight interest rates around their official policy rate. To ensure the functionality of the stabilization mechanism needs the successful balancing between bank's demand for reserves and central bank's supply of the reserves in interbank market. I discuss the main sources of temporal gaps between the demand for and the supply of the reserves and their impact on the volatility of overnight interest rates. In our theoretical explanation there is stressed the role of intertemporal substitution in fluctuation of demand for reserves. In the empirical part there is analysed the behaviour of overnight interest rates in the Czech interbank market (2001 - 2004) in the context of excess liquidity. Some structural changes in interbank market were found - undershooting of non-stability of excess liquidity and decline of overnight interest rates volatility due to new possibility of intraday credit.

Dealing with Unexpected Shocks to the Budget

We assess the impact of unexpected shocks to real interest rates and GDP growth on government budgets for nine European Union countries. Shocks are estimated as onestep-ahead forecast errors arising from a recursive bivariate VAR model. Our analysis is relevant, in particular, to deciding what safety margins are needed to limit the risk of the deficit's exceeding the 3% Maastricht threshold. The approach followed differs in two respects from standard analyses aiming at defining budgetary positions that satisfy the Stability and Growth Pact. First, whereas the latter examine only fluctuations in economic activity, we also consider fluctuations in interest rates. Second, whereas standard analyses focus on deviations from trends and define margins for the mediumterm cyclically adjusted balance, we examine unexpected shocks and define margins for nominal balances. The results point to significant differences in the required margins across countries.

An Estimated Small Open Economy Model of the Financial Accelerator

This paper develops a small open economy model where entrepreneurs partially finance investment using foreign currency denominated debt subject to a risk premium above and beyond international interest rates. We use Bayesian estimation techniques to evaluate the importance of balance sheet vulnerabilities combined with the presence of the financial accelerator for emerging market countries. Using Korean data, we obtain an estimate for the external risk premium, indicating the importance of the financial accelerator and potential balance sheet vulnerabilities for macroeconomic fluctuations. Furthermore, our estimates of the Taylor rule imply a strong preference to smooth both exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations.

An Estimated Small Open Economy Model of the Financial Accelerator

This paper develops a small open economy model where entrepreneurs partially finance investment using foreign currency denominated debt subject to a risk premium above and beyond international interest rates. We use Bayesian estimation techniques to evaluate the importance of balance sheet vulnerabilities combined with the presence of the financial accelerator for emerging market countries. Using Korean data, we obtain an estimate for the external risk premium, indicating the importance of the financial accelerator and potential balance sheet vulnerabilities for macroeconomic fluctuations. Furthermore, our estimates of the Taylor rule imply a strong preference to smooth both exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations.

Inflation, Presidents, Fed Chairs, and Regime Shifts in the U.S. Real Interest Rate

Several recent papers agree on the existence of significant regime shifts in the U.S. real interest rate, but disagree on the proximate causes of the shifts. Caporale and Grier (2000) point to large political changes as correlates, while Rapach and Wohar (2004) show that real rate breaks are correlated with inflation regime shifts and argue that the inflation regime changes cause the real rate shifts. In this paper we show that, controlling for the timing of changes in the inflation regime, dummy variables representing either party change in the Presidency or change in the identity of the Fed Chair are still strongly significant for explaining real interest rate fluctuations. When we control for a fixed coefficient linear relationship between inflation and the real rate, we find two real rate regime shifts that line up almost exactly with the accessions of Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan. Even if we first let inflation regime switches explain the real rate and then look for regime shifts in the residuals, we find almost exactly the same two breaks. These results imply that Fed Chairs sometimes differ with respect to their preferred equilibrium real interest rate.

On the Efficiency of Markets for Agricultural Products: Rice Prices and Capital Markets in Java, 1823–1853

I use rice prices in three cities to analyze the efficiency of the marketing system and the institutional framework of Javanese agriculture, 1823–1853. I show that imperfections in rural capital markets caused the extreme fluctuations in rice prices and that the segmentation of the capital market modifies the McCloskey and Nash interpretation of the relationship between seasonal fluctuations of grain (or rice) prices and interest rates. I argue that these fluctuations proxy peasants' stress. Finally, I hypothesize that institutional and market failures explain the “noneconomic” behavior of Javanese peasants in Boeke's theory of dualistic economic development.

The premium and the risk of a life policy in the presence of interest rate fluctuations

In this work, we consider the premium setting and the associated risk with regard to a life insurance policy when the interest rate process is a diffusion. Explicit formulas and numerical examples are given for the premiums determined by the equivalence principle under some well-known interest rate models such as the Vasicek model and the CIR model. Two types of premium design, single deposit premium and continuous premium, are considered. A martingale related to the discounted reserve process is introduced. With this martingale, an analysis of the risk of ruin is also carried out on a collective basis when the premium is the natural premium plus an initial positive loading. A bound of exponential type is derived for the ruin probability.

Interest rate decisions in an asymmetric monetary union

Decision rules matter for monetary policy in a currency union if the interest rate affects member states differently. We examine the consequences for inflation, output and interest rate fluctuations and the welfare loss of four alternative types of decision procedures. We show that the alternative decision rules have very dissimilar properties and that different rules favour different types of countries. In addition to asymmetric transmission mechanisms, we consider asymmetric shocks. We show that it is the combination of a country's interest rate elasticity and the covariance between the shocks to the country and the shocks to the union that determines which decision rule the country would favour.

Interest rate smoothing and financial stability

Central banks smooth fluctuations in interest rates based on a belief that this policy promotes financial stability. This belief is based on a presumption that the direct effect of less interest rate volatility on a bank's likelihood of insolvency is the predominant effect of this policy. The main point of this paper is that these policies also give rise to indirect effects that lower financial stability. These indirect effects occur because the policy itself alters bank behavior. In effect, if the central bank provides (liquidity) insurance (at zero premia), it may introduce a classic moral hazard problem that encourages risk taking by banks. As a result, to maintain a given degree of financial stability, a bank regulator may, in fact, need to impose a higher prudential capital requirement when an interest rate smoothing policy is in place. The paper concludes that the link between interest rate smoothing policy and financial stability may be more complicated than is generally recognized.

Earnings Riskiness and Residual Income Valuation

The residual income valuation model relies on book value, current earnings, and future earnings estimates to explain firm value. It is important to acknowledge, however, that even if two firms have identical current or forecasted earnings figures in dollars and cents, these figures do not convey identical information about each firm's residual income earning potential because each firm's earnings process is unique. Characteristics of the firm affect the riskiness of its earnings stream (i.e. the size of the range of earnings possibilities) therefore, since investors have risk preferences, this riskiness should affect firm value. This study extends the existing literature by focusing on risks inherent to earnings and demonstrating that firm specific measures of earnings risk enhance the residual income model's ability to explain stock market prices. In so doing, this study also helps our quest to better understand how earnings and earnings risk factors create value in the eyes of investors. The firm specific earnings risk measures considered in this study are the variability of earnings expectations, exposure to interest rate fluctuations, geographical diversification, operational diversification, and operating leverage. Using a sample of more than twenty thousand firm-years over the 1984 to 2002 time period, the empirical analysis finds that the residual income model's ability to explain market prices improves significantly with the addition of risk measurement variables. Not surprisingly, the results confirm that greater risk leads to lower firm value. Interestingly, however, the model allows us to dissect the individual effects of risk on the value of earnings and forecast levels, and the data suggests that while investors consistently price earnings as though they are risk averse, they show signs of risk seeking behavior with regard to forecasts.

Interest Rate Smoothing and Financial Stability

Central banks smooth fluctuations in interest rates based on a belief that this policy promotes financial stability. This belief is based on a presumption that the direct effect of less interest rate volatility on a bank's likelihood of insolvency is the predominant effect of this policy. The main point of this paper is that these policies also give rise to indirect effects that lower financial stability. These indirect effects occur because the policy itself alters bank behavior. In effect, if the central bank provides (liquidity) insurance (at zero premia), it may introduce a classic moral hazard problem that encourages risk-taking by banks. As a result, to maintain a given degree of financial stability, a bank regulator may, in fact, need to impose a higher prudential capital requirement when an interest rate smoothing policy is in place. The paper concludes that the link between interest rate smoothing policy and financial stability may be more complicated than is generally recognized.

An examination of the impact of macroeconomic news on the spot and futures treasuries markets

AbstractIn this study we analyze the reaction of daily cash and futures prices for several Treasury securities to the release of U.S. macroeconomic news. Some important results are reported. First, consistent with the notion of market integration, the futures market is found to be cointegrated with the corresponding cash market. Second, of the 23 types of periodic macroeconomic announcements, 19 of them have a significant influence on either the cash or futures prices. Most notably, surprises in nonfarm payroll and Treasury budget significantly influence the cash and futures market across the entire maturity spectrum. Third, consistent with the Fisher and real activity hypotheses, macroeconomic news that conveys higher inflation and/or economic growth has a negative influence on cash and futures prices. Finally, hedging with Treasury futures appears to offer investors protection from inflation‐related fluctuations in interest rates, but not against fluctuations arising due to variations in real output. Some important policy implications of the results are offered. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:453–478, 2004