Fluctuations In Confidence Research Articles

"Comparisons are Odious?" Revisiting the ancient fable of the ant and the grasshopper adapted in Maugham's short story

The article seeks to locate a comparative study of the meanings and the morals of a popular ancient fable, adapted by William Somerset Maugham in his short story, The Ant and the Grasshopper. The comparison and contrast in adapting the fable generated an intense academic debate about the appropriate policies of life, a human should undergo. Alike the ancient fable, the setting of the story opens with the conversation between an industrious ant and its reluctant counterpart, a grasshopper. Although the story of the fable is embodied with a moral where industry is rewarded and giddiness punished, we see a completely different scenario at the end of the story. Therefore, it is an irony of the moral conflict between two Ramsay brothers, namely George Ramsay, a man of ethics and Tom Ramsay, a man of a fantasy world. Throughout the story, The Ant and the Grasshopper, Maugham's effort to portray the themes of justice, trust, fear, morality, embarrassment, happiness and struggle is indeed praiseworthy. But, at the same time, it has aroused a hypothesis of seeking out the ultimate principles of life. The paper considers the development of the Greek fable from its origin to the later adaptations, including the version of La Fontaine, a French fabulist, and the final reversal to a counter-fable by Maugham. It also includes a web of researches in the corresponding fields, and a synthesis resulting from the causes and effects of indebtedness and unemployment that can eventually affect the economy through fluctuations in confidence. The further objective of this work illustrates the misconception and mockery of a man of letter and the eventual paradoxes he has to face in reality. Finally, it concludes with an inception that a post modern world like ours needs not only a determined and preset humane policy, but also a new narrative, and liberal outlook to survive or live in luxury.

Forming global estimates of self-performance from local confidence

Metacognition, the ability to internally evaluate our own cognitive performance, is particularly useful since many real-life decisions lack immediate feedback. While most previous studies have focused on the construction of confidence at the level of single decisions, little is known about the formation of “global” self-performance estimates (SPEs) aggregated from multiple decisions. Here, we compare the formation of SPEs in the presence and absence of feedback, testing a hypothesis that local decision confidence supports the formation of SPEs when feedback is unavailable. We reveal that humans pervasively underestimate their performance in the absence of feedback, compared to a condition with full feedback, despite objective performance being unaffected. We find that fluctuations in confidence contribute to global SPEs over and above objective accuracy and reaction times. Our findings create a bridge between a computation of local confidence and global SPEs, and support a functional role for confidence in higher-order behavioral control.

Exploring the emerging profession of speech-language pathology in Vietnam through pioneering eyes

Purpose: In September 2012, 18 Vietnamese health professionals graduated as Vietnam’s first university qualified speech-language pathologists (SLPs). This study details the reflections of these pioneering health professionals at 12 months following their graduation, drawing attention to their scope of practice as SLPs and to the opportunities and challenges to progressing the practice of speech-language pathology (SLP) in Vietnam.Method: Thirteen graduates participated in small group interviews where they described their work and their perceptions of their emerging practice. Thematic analysis of the interview transcripts was employed to identify key concepts and themes within the data.Result: Four overarching themes were identified—scope of practice, establishing identity, confidence to practise and progressing the profession. Overall analysis revealed evolving professional practice characterised by new learning, fluctuations in confidence and an active forging of professional identity. Mentoring and support by international colleagues and advancing professional recognition were identified as critical to the profession’s progression and to the development of context-specific and culturally appropriate services.Conclusion: Participants’ reflections draw focus to an important role for the international SLP community as it works in partnership with colleagues to enhance awareness of and services for people with communication disabilities in under-served communities such as Vietnam.

Anxiety, Overconfidence, and Excessive Risk Taking

We provide a model that rationalizes variation in confidence in the time series and the cross section. Combining horizon-dependent risk aversion (“anxiety”) and selective memory, we show that overly precise beliefs (“overconfidence”) can arise in the equilibrium of a Bayesian agent’s intrapersonal game. In the time series, overconfidence is more prevalent when actual risk levels are high, while underconfidence occurs when risks are low. As more confident agents take more risk, fluctuations in confidence amplify boom-bust cycles. More anxious agents’ beliefs fluctuate more, leading them to buy in booms and sell in crashes.

Anxiety, Overconfidence, and Excessive Risk Taking

We provide a model that rationalizes variation in confidence in the time series and the cross section. Combining horizon-dependent risk aversion (“anxiety”) and selective memory, we show that overly precise beliefs (“overconfidence”) can arise in the equilibrium of a Bayesian agent’s intrapersonal game. In the time series, overconfidence is more prevalent when actual risk levels are high, while underconfidence occurs when risks are low. As more confident agents take more risk, fluctuations in confidence amplify boom-bust cycles. More anxious agents’ beliefs fluctuate more, leading them to buy in booms and sell in crashes.

Fluctuations in Confidence and Asymmetric Business Cycles

There is now a great deal of empirical evidence that business cycle fluctuations contain asymmetries. The asymmetries found in post-war U.S. data are inconsistent with the behavior of the U.S. economy in the Great Depression. In a model where business cycle asymmetries are produced by rational fluctuations in the confidence of investors, I examine whether this inconsistency can be explained by differences in government policy. It is found that the ineptness of government intervention during the Great Depression in reducing the confidence of investors rather than the success of post-war stabilization policy in raising confidence is the most likely explanation.

Domestic Credit Expansion, Confidence and the Foreign Exchange Market: Sterling in 1976

Abstract Domestic Credit Expansion, Confidence and the Foreign Exchange Market: Sterling in 1976 This paper examines in detail the reasons for the wide fluctuations in the sterling exchange rate during 1976, fluctuations which can be argued to have had lasting and significant effects on the course of the UK economy. Three possible explanations, emphasising movements in the current account, prior monetary growth rates and prior movements in relative price levels, are rejected as inaccurate and oversimple. The ‘established’ interpretation of the episode is then set out within the framework of the monetary approach to the balance of payments; this interpretation emphasises the importance and relative autonomy of fluctuations in confidence, in both the foreign exchange and the government securities markets, and implies ‘reverse causation’ from the balance of payments/exchange rate via confidence to domestic credit expansion (DCE). Some criticisms of this interpretation in the literature are discussed, and the thinking underlying the behaviour of the monetary authorities is examined in some detail: in particular the authorities are shown to have taken an essentially passive view of their own monetary policy, to have focussed on money supply growth rather than DCE and to have attached great importance to announcement effects and other factors affecting confidence. An alternative interpretation is then developed which regards confidence as determined, except in the very short run, by monetary policy (DCE) and which views causation as going primarily from DCE to the balance of payments/exchange rate. The difficulties involved in tests to discriminate between these two interpretations are discussed and it is argued that no definite conclusion can be drawn. However it is concluded that future sterling fluctuations can be prevented by the appropriate control of DCE, and that monetary policy should therefore focus on this aggregate rather than on the growth of the money supply. Finally the role of some political factors in the episode is considered in an Appendix