Trade Flows Research Articles

Impact of electronic networks on E‐waste trade: Evidence from ASEAN+6 countries

AbstractThe development of electronic networks promotes economic growth and international trade flows. Because of the short life cycle of electrical and electronic equipment, considerable electronic waste (e‐waste) is generated. We identified the determinants of e‐waste trade, focusing on ASEAN+6 countries and their trading partners for the years 2000 to 2018. The empirical results regarding trade value and trade weight revealed that electronic networks significantly promoted the import of e‐waste into ASEAN+6 countries. The results were robust to using different measures of electronic networks and different estimation methods.

Determining the Predictive Power of the Gravity Model: A Case for Zambia

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the predictive power of the gravity model in explaining trade flows in Zambia. Materials and Methods: The study utilized panel data for the period 1990-2020 for the Zambian economy and its 15 top trading partners based on 2018 trade volumes. The data was collected from the Centre for Prospective Studies and International Studies for International Information (CEPII) Gravity Database. The study employed the gravity equation to predict trade flows in Zambia. Findings: The empirical results show that the gravity model accurately predicts Zambia's trade flows, with GDP positively and distance negatively correlated with exports. The results also show that sharing a common border enhances Zambia’s exports. Surprisingly, trade agreements exhibit a negative relationship with exports. Implications to Theory, Practice and Policy: The significant negative impact of distance on trade highlights the need for improved infrastructure and logistics to reduce transportation costs, thus, facilitating Zambia’s trade flows. Further, the findings suggest that Zambia should focus on strengthening trade with neighboring countries. Additionally, Zambia should diversify export bases away from heavy reliance on the mining sector. Besides, there is a need for active participation in regional integration initiatives to address implementation challenges of trade agreements.

Determinants of Indonesia's Plantation Commodities Trade Flows with ASEAN: Insights from a Gravity Model Approach

The trade relationship between Indonesia and ASEAN countries in plantation products exhibits fluctuations in export and import activities. This study aims to identify the factors influencing Indonesia’s Plantation Commodities Trade Flows with ASEAN countries. The research utilizes secondary data from eight ASEAN countries-Indonesia, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, and the Philippines-over a 15-year period (2008–2022). A panel data regression analysis, based on the Gravity Model, was conducted to achieve the research objectives. The variables examined include Indonesia’s Plantation Commodities Trade Flows, Indonesia's GDP, partner countries' GDP, exchange rates, economic distance, population, and inflation. The analysis revealed that fluctuations in Indonesia’s Plantation Commodities Trade Flows are driven by variations in export and import values. The regression results identified Indonesia's GDP, partner countries' GDP, economic distance, and exchange rates as significant factors affecting trade flows, while population and inflation had no significant impact.

Understanding the Republic of Malawi’s trade dynamics: A Bayesian gravity model approach

International trade enables countries to expand their markets, access more products, improve resource allocation, and boost economic growth by leveraging comparative advantage and specialization. The aim of this article is to analyze the primary factors that influence Malawi’s international trade flows. The study is relevant because it examines Malawi’s trade patterns with its main partners, which include surrounding nations and traditional trade allies. The novelty is that, through the analysis, the research offers valuable insights into the primary factors that influence Malawi’s international commerce. Panel data is gathered from various sources, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, covering the period from 2000 to 2023 for 11 countries that are trading partners with Malawi. We employ the Bayesian Mindsponge gravity methodology. The results show that the economic size (characterized by the gross domestic product) of the origin and destination countries, bilateral agreements, and the population size of the destination country have a beneficial impact on Malawi’s exports. In conclusion, Malawi’s export performance is significantly enhanced by the economic size of both Malawi and its trading partners, the existence of bilateral agreements, and the population size of the destination countries, underscoring the importance of strategic economic partnerships and targeted trade policies in boosting Malawi’s international trade. We recommend Malawi authorities focus on strengthening bilateral agreements and targeting trade relationships with larger and more populous economies to boost international trade.

The impact of information and communication technologies on international trade: A case of Sub-Saharan Africa

The aim of this research is to analyze the effect of information and communication technologies (ICT) on the bilateral trade flows of the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We use the method of generalized least squares (GLS) panel to correct for correlation and heteroskedasticity problems. We have employed the gravity model extended to ICT to examine the effects of key ICT indicators on bilateral exports and imports. The sample includes 44 African countries of the subcontinent, including 43 countries as partners (importers/exporters) and one reporter country (exporter/importer) and covers the period 2010 to 2019. The results show that access to mobile telephony and the internet, as well as the development of e-commerce, have a great potential for improving intra-African bilateral trade and that the effect of ICT is not unequivocal according to the category of flow considered. However, it emerges from these results that the development of ICT as it is today has not yet succeeded in overturning the argument of physical distance as a barrier to trade in sub-Saharan Africa. The key conclusion is that the establishment of better-quality ICT services and infrastructure is more critical to intra-African trade. African policymakers should accommodate sufficient support to establish the ICT infrastructure and expand ICT penetration by reducing the costs of communication, transactions and access to ICT.

Modelling the Relationship Between Merchandise Trade Flows and Some Macroeconomic Variables in Ghana

Macroeconomic variables serve as economic indicators that offer valuable insights into the overall health and stability of an economy. Changes in these variables can have significant impacts on a country's trade balance and overall economic performance. This study employed multivariate time series analysis to study the relationship between Merchandise Trade Flows (MTF), Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), Commercial Lending Rate (CLR), Nominal Growth Rate (NGR) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) with Money Supply (MoS) as exogenous variable. The nature of trend in each series was investigated. The results revealed that quadratic trend model best models MTF, MPR, CLR and NGR whiles an exponential trend best models CPI. Johansen’s co-integration test with unrestricted trend performed revealed the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships between the variables and three (3) co-integrating equations described this long-run relationship. In terms of short-run relationships, the VEC (2) model revealed that, CLR, NGR, MoS have positive and significant impact on MTF. CLR, NGR and MoS have positive and significant impact on MPR, NGR have positive and significant impact on CLR, CPI and MoS have significant impact on NGR whiles NGR and MoS have significant impact on CPI. Model diagnostics performed on the VEC (2) model showed that, all the model parameters are structurally stable over time and the residuals of the individual models are free from serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity. Forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) analysis showed that each variable primarily explained its own variance and the influence of other variables increase over time. Hence, adopting a broad perspective on macroeconomic variables can help policymakers anticipate and mitigate ripple effects across various economic sectors.

The European Energy Crisis and the Consequences for the Global Natural Gas Market

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to severe disruptions in the European gas market with significant repercussions on a global scale. The conflict caused a surge in energy prices, a major reshuffling of global natural gas flows, and a shift in the policy-makers’ agendas toward energy supply security. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the developments in the global gas market in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, focusing in particular on the European gas market and on global LNG trade flows. We first review the characteristics of the gas market in terms of both pricing benchmarks and contractual terms. Next, we analyze the changes to LNG and natural gas production, consumption, and trade flows throughout the European energy crisis. Finally, we review the main policy response to the energy crisis and present some considerations on the gas market outlook. JEL Classification: L95, P28, Q35

Territory flows and trade flows between 1870 and 2008

Countries gain and lose territories over time, generating territory flows that represent the transfer of territorial sovereignty. Countries also export and import goods, creating trade flows that represent the transfer of merchandise ownership. We find a substitution between these two international flows during the years 1870 and 2008; that is, country pairs with greater trade flows have smaller territory flows. This indicates how international trade enhances international security: reciprocal goods transactions discourage irreciprocal territorial exchanges.

The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Global Economic Stability and Political Security

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has emerged as a significant geopolitical tension, with far-reaching implications for global stability and security. This paper intends to study the impact of the war on the worlds and regional economic development and political stability, and achieve some findings that may trigger further policy considerations in mitigating challenges and issues imposed by the war. Through literature reviews and comparison analysis, the findings reveal economic, political, and security consequences of the conflict. The disruption of trade flows, economic sanctions, and uncertainty have impacted both Russia and Ukraine, as well as the wider region and the world. Energy security concerns and shifts in military alliances have added to the complexity of the conflict. The expansion of NATO and increased rivalries between Russia and Western countries have further heightened tensions. Based on the findings, the paper concludes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict poses a significant threat to global economic stability and political security. It emphasizes the need for a multilateral approach to address the conflict and promote peace and stability in the region. Ceasefire agreements, humanitarian assistance, and reconstruction efforts are crucial steps towards long-term peace and development. The paper highlights the importance of prioritizing diplomatic solutions over short-term gains from the conflict. In summary, this paper intends to explore the implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global stability and security, with findings that underscore the need for international cooperation and concerted efforts to mitigate the consequences of the conflict and foster a peaceful resolution.

Development of russian-mongolian foreign trade relations in food industry

In the context of shifting trade emphasis to the East, Russia attaches great importance to the development of cooperation with the Asia-Pacific countries, where Mongolia is a key partner. The purpose of the article is to reveal global trade trends and identify key areas for the development of Russian-Mongolian foreign trade relations in the food industry. Having conducted a comprehensive analysis of the economic and political factors shaping bilateral trade, the article provides insights into the challenges and opportunities for expanding cooperation in the food sector. Global trend in the food market is that China a leader. China accounts for the largest share (35%) in Russia turnover also. Mongolian trade ties with Russia are becoming closer year by year. This was demonstrated by the official visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Mongolia in September 2024. We can observe that Mongolia closely cooperates with such a region of Russia as Buryatia. Through a detailed examination of trade patterns, regulatory frameworks, and market trends, the study uncovers areas of untapped potential and identifies barriers to optimal trade flow. Drawing on industry best practices and case studies from other global food trade partnerships, the paper offers a series of practical recommendations for stakeholders. These recommendations cover infrastructure development, promotion of cultural exchange, harmonization of legal and regulatory frameworks, absorption and use of technology to create a more robust and sustainable trade ecosystem.

Correction to: Extended Producer Responsibility and Trade Flows in Waste: The Case of Batteries

Correction to: Extended Producer Responsibility and Trade Flows in Waste: The Case of Batteries

Russian-Croatian trade relations in current environment of sanctions

Aim. To assess the impact of Western European sanctions on Russian-Croatian trade relations in 2020-2023 and Croatian tourism sector.Objectives. To analyze the dynamics of key indicators of trade between the Russian Federation (RF) and Croatia under sanctions; to identify the main commodity groups in the structure of their trade; to determine the importance of Russia for the tourism sector of the Republic of Croatia.Methods. The author used such research methods as statistical analysis, generalization, description and graphical modeling.Results. The results obtained in the process of the analysis indicate a sharp decline in the volume of mutual trade of the Russian Federation with Croatia in the conditions of numerous trade restrictions from the European Union. In 2023, the commodity structure of Russian exports to the Republic of Croatia has changed significantly, the basis of Russian exports is now made up of finished goods and goods of the chemical industry. The flow of tourists from Russia occupies an insignificant share in the total tourist flow of Croatia and has little impact on the tourism sector of the Republic. Under the conditions of the sanctions regime, Croatian companies have begun to cease economic activities in the territory of the Russian Federation.Conclusions. The current situation on the world stage has determined the dynamism of mutual trade interaction between Russia and Croatia. Thus, the sanctions imposed by the countries of the collective West have a negative impact on Russian-Croatian relations both in trade and tourism. The tendencies of reduction of mutual trade and tourist flows have a long-term character and negative dynamics of interaction between the two countries. Normalization of trade relations between Russia and Croatia in the geopolitical situation today seems unlikely.

The Rise of Green Trade Policy and Its Impact on the International Market

With the increasing severity of global environmental issues, governments and international organizations are gradually recognizing the key role of green trade policies in promoting environmental sustainability. Green trade policies aim to facilitate a green transition in global trade through the formulation and implementation of environmental protection measures. These policies include carbon pricing mechanisms, green tariffs, environmental subsidies, and international coordination of environmental standards. This paper systematically analyzes the definition and development of green trade policies and explores their impact on the international market. The main content covers the reshaping of international trade flows and patterns, changes in global competitive dynamics, and the optimization and adjustment of global supply chains. The study reveals that green trade policies not only drive increased demand for eco-friendly products and technologies in the international market but also reshape global competitive dynamics and promote the greening and smart transformation of global supply chains. In the future, with the further refinement of green trade policies and strengthened international cooperation, the global economy is expected to achieve more sustainable development.

Trade Policy Ppace, Aid for Trade and, Intra-African and External African Manufactured Exports

Boosting intra-African manufactured exports is a critical objective of African leaders. The present analysis examines whether trade policy space and Aid for Trade (AfT) flows can contribute to achieving this objective. The analysis covers an unbalanced sample of 36 African countries over the period from 2004 to 2020, and uses estimators that allow obtaining the short-term (i.e., within-country effect) and long-term (i.e., between-country effect) effects of each regressor. The estimators are the combination of the feasible generalized least squares estimator on the one hand, and the Seemingly Unrelated Regression on the other hand, in the context of a hybrid model. The findings indicate that both trade policy space and AfT flows can help promote - including in a complementary way - African manufactured exports, especially intra-African manufactured exports. In this regard, trade policy space and AfT flows are instrumental in meeting African leaders’ objectives of promoting intra-African trade. The implications of the findings are discussed.

Competition or complementarity? Assessing the interaction effects of RCEP and CPTPP on agricultural and non-agricultural trade flows

Competition or complementarity? Assessing the interaction effects of RCEP and CPTPP on agricultural and non-agricultural trade flows

Celebrating the research career of Douglas Nelson

AbstractThis special issue celebrates Prof. Douglas Nelson's body of research. It comprises articles by many of his co‐authors, colleagues and students. They address two broad themes: the interplay between trade and investment flows and employment and equity on the one hand and the interaction between trade‐related policies and patterns of trade and investment on the other.

Population structure and bilateral trade flows in ECOWAS countries

Population structure and bilateral trade flows in ECOWAS countries

Development of the global competitiveness of Russian regions: the concept and configuration of the "smart" complementarity

Purpose: is to work out the scientifically sound theoretical and methodical framework for the «smart» complementarity of trade flows, aimed at selecting and substantiating potential commodity niches in trade of Russian regions with foreign countries.Methods: the general methodological basis of the study is the critical analysis of the scientific literature that forms the theoretical and methodological basis for the global competitiveness of individual regions of a country presented in the theories of regional and spatial economy. The study has been carried out by methods of system, structural-logical and abstract-logical analysis.Results: the research resulted in some fundamental scientific novelties such as: the scientifically grounded theoretical concept of “smart” complementarity, which makes it possible to identify the presence of specific foreign trade niches in a geographical (country, region) and commodity contexts, based on an analysis of the complementarity of trade flows at the level of a Russian region and a foreign country, and assessment of the global competitiveness of the regional economy, as well as “fine” criteria that determine the activity of participants in foreign economic activity. The applied results included a specific configuration of "smart" complementarity – the algorithm for determining promising economic specializations of the region, allowing to combine trade statistics of a foreign country with data regional statistics, indicating the presence of foreign trade potential, taking into account regional economic specializations. The developed algorithm is intended for the use in an information and analytical system to support management decisions in the field of foreign economic activity of the region.Conclusions and Relevance: the concept and configuration of «smart» complementarity in their practical implementation in the form of an information and analytical system are proposed in the article to provide the participants of foreign economic activity with data on promising export groups for selected countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. This approach allows moving the «center of gravity» of building trade and economic relations with foreign countries from the federal to the regional level.

Assessing the impact of the European Union-Vietnam free trade agreement on labor market and employment in Vietnam

PurposeThis study investigates the impact of the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) on Vietnam’s labor market and employment outcomes, considering the potential distributional consequences across various groups of workers and regions.Design/methodology/approachA comprehensive quantitative framework is employed, combining the gravity model of trade to estimate the EVFTA’s effects on trade flows, the CISAF_M1 model to simulate sectoral employment impacts and econometric models to analyze the effects on wages and decent work. The analysis draws upon a rich dataset spanning the period before and after the EVFTA’s implementation.FindingsThe EVFTA has significantly boosted Vietnam’s exports to the EU, leading to substantial job creation in labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, apparel and footwear. The agreement has also contributed to wage growth and improved access to social insurance for workers in export-oriented industries. However, the impact on other aspects of job quality is less clear. The distributional analysis reveals that the EVFTA’s employment effects have been relatively balanced across gender but have favored younger and less skilled workers as well as those in rural areas.Originality/valueThis study provides a comprehensive and nuanced assessment of the EVFTA’s impact on Vietnam’s labor market, addressing a gap in the literature on the employment effects of new-generation free trade agreements in developing countries. The findings highlight the importance of considering distributional aspects when evaluating the socioeconomic implications of trade liberalization and offer valuable insights for policymakers aiming to promote inclusive growth in the context of deepening international economic integration.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-03-2024-0236

Resolving complexity: Material flow analysis of a national wood flow system integrating the versatility of wood

AbstractA systemic understanding of the use of wood resources is required to defossilize society and promote bio‐based developments. This study provides a novel approach to represent a comprehensive material flow analysis (MFA) spanning the entire wood value chain; encompassing wood harvest to products, use in society, collection, reuse, recycle, energy generation, and trade. By recognizing wood as a complex material, with changing properties throughout its lifespan, we developed a method where we employed a color‐coded system for processes (27 boxes) and 110 flows to symbolize distinct life stages and the dynamic characteristics, including 23 different trade flows. The wood processes and flows are categorized (11 categories) into different wood types (e.g., softwood and hardwood) and harmonized to include all available data on each single step of the wood life cycle, improving data traceability and visualization, and allowing for replicable analysis with respective data noted for each process and flow. Methodological obstacles due to different units, uncertainty of flows, and discrepancies in data are addressed and adjustments proposed. Switzerland was chosen as a case study as a large number of various types of data were available to perform the analysis. The categorized and harmonized flows of woody biomass mapped and analyzed in the MFA provide a comprehensive basis to identify and recommend avenues to increase cascading use of wood as a carbon sink, by considering relevant aspects like the network of flows and processes, the quality and availability of the woody biomass, and the organization of the industry.