Foreign Direct Investment Inflows Research Articles

Rising protectionism and foreign direct investment

AbstractThis paper investigates the impact of the changing international investment regime on foreign direct investment (FDI). Since the late 2000s, hundreds of international investment agreements (IIAs) have been renegotiated or terminated. We study the impact of these shifts in the global investment regime using a novel FDI dataset based on transaction-level investment data and detailed information on IIA provisions. Relying on a stand-alone partial equilibrium modeling framework, we hypothesize that rising protectionism in IIAs increased investment frictions and harmed FDI. We then use a parsimonious three-way gravity framework to test the hypothesis. The empirical evidence shows that reformed and newly enforced IIAs have no impact on FDI flows. Decreasing investment openness in recently implemented IIAs is the driving mechanism behind these findings. We also show that the effects of IIA termination differ by FDI type, being more pronounced for brownfield than greenfield FDI and larger for horizontal than vertical FDI. Lastly, we show significant treatment heterogeneity across industries, with capital-intensive sectors benefiting more from IIAs than labor-intensive ones. Our findings highlight the need to reconsider the benefits and costs of IIAs under an increasingly protective international investment regime.

The limits of diplomacy by treaty: Evidence from China's bilateral investment treaty program

AbstractThe web of over 3000 Bilateral Investment Treaties (“BITs”) is the primary body of international law regulating cross‐border investments. Research suggests that these treaties may have had a limited impact on promoting new investments, but that they still may have helped to improve countries' political relationships. In this paper, we document that this pattern was reversed for one of the most prolific signers of BITs: China. Using a stacked‐event research design, we find that Chinese BITs are associated with an increase in Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment Flows but a divergence in voting patterns at the United Nations. We then explore two explanations for why the Chinese BIT program led to increased investment while also producing foreign policy divergence: that the domestic political costs of economic engagement with China push countries away, and that there are offsetting international pressures that have stronger pulls than China's efforts. We find no support for the domestic political costs explanation, but we do find evidence that the countries that received increased aid from the United States after signing a Chinese BIT had greater foreign policy divergence with China.

Is the country’s preparedness for epidemics and pandemics an FDI location factor? An empirical analysis using panel data

Purpose This study aims to validate the hypothesis that a country’s preparedness for epidemics and pandemics, as measured by the GHS Index, significantly influences inward FDI inflows. By examining panel data from 2019 to 2021, the research seeks to elucidate the impact of heightened epidemic and pandemic preparedness on investment behavior, thereby highlighting the importance of health resilience and preparedness in attracting foreign investment and fostering economic growth and development. Design/methodology/approach The study uses panel data spanning 181 countries from 2019 to 2021 and uses logarithmic regression models to analyze the impact of a country’s preparedness for epidemics and pandemics, as measured by the Global Health Security (GHS) Index, on inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows. Auxiliary variables including GDP, labor supply, openness rate, inflation rate and political stability are incorporated. Robust weighted least squares estimation techniques are used to account for potential heterogeneity and panel data characteristics. Findings The study reveals a consistent and statistically significant positive relationship between a country’s GHS score and inward FDI, indicating that destinations with robust health systems are more attractive to investors. Higher GHS scores correlate with reduced investment risk, improved business continuity during health crises and enhanced health-care infrastructure, leading to a healthier and more productive workforce. Research limitations/implications While the study provides valuable insights into the relationship between epidemic and pandemic preparedness and inward FDI inflows, several limitations exist. The analysis relies on cross-sectional data from a relatively short timeframe (2019–2021), limiting the ability to capture long-term effects. Additionally, the study focuses on the GHS Index as a measure of preparedness, overlooking other potential determinants of FDI attractiveness. Future research could explore a broader range of health security indicators and incorporate longer-term data to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by examining the previously underexplored relationship between a country’s epidemic and pandemic preparedness, as measured by the GHS Index and inward FDI inflows. By using panel data analysis and robust econometric techniques, the research provides empirical evidence supporting the positive impact of robust health systems on FDI attractiveness. The findings underscore the importance of prioritizing public health initiatives and epidemic preparedness as integral components of attracting and retaining foreign investment, thereby fostering economic resilience and sustainable development in host countries.

Investors’ reaction to banning IFRS use by domestic firms in alternative market

AbstractThis paper analyses the regulatory context, i.e., how IFRS preparers investing in Poland react to banning IFRS use by domestic firms in the alternative trading market (NewConnect) after six years of regulatory arbitrage. In other words, it studies their portfolio investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) outward sensitivity to the end of regulatory arbitrage opportunity given by the alternative market’s regulation in the country where accounting law limits IFRS use to regulated markets and business groups where the parent company uses IFRS. The contribution is built on the natural experiment of prohibition of domestic IFRS preparers issuing shares on the alternative (not-regulated and cheaper) trading market after 2012. The originality is delivered by implementing a de facto measure of IFRS adoption by foreign investors to identify a 69% growth rate of IFRS preparers investing in Polish firms in 2012 (317% growth of Swedish investors and 219% of Portuguese) that dropped to 8% in 2013 and 3% in 2018. Thus, we check whether investing decisions consider opportunities to gain funds or attract other investors and build trust through IPOs on the unregulated market dedicated to start-ups and engaged in R&D activity. We use difference-in-differences, GMM dynamic panel-data analysis with Arellano-Bond and Arellano-Bover/Blundel-Bond estimators for the Knowledge-Capital model on portfolio investment, outward FDI overall, and three FDI components based on debt, equity, and earning reinvestment in 2003–2019. We found that banning IFRS use by domestic firms in the alternative market discourages portfolio investments, debt-based FDI flows and FDI earnings reinvestment. Also, total FDI and equity-based FDI from countries with more IFRS preparers have been reduced since 2013 due to the IFRS ban for domestic firms.

The Relationship between Democracy and Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia

Has progress toward democracy affected the level of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to East Asia? Existing research presents conflicting theoretical perspectives on the effect of democratic institutions on FDI. One thread suggests that democratization will lead to more FDI inflows; a second argues for less; and a third argues there may be no effect. We explore whether political institutions impact FDI flows to East Asia by empirically assessing the relationship between the two phenomena. Using three-stage least-squares estimation to account for endogeneity and pooled annual time-series data from 1975 to 2018 for 13 East Asian countries, we find that democratic institutions are associated with higher levels of inward FDI. The results are robust across alternative measures of FDI and democracy. We conclude with a discussion of policy implications.

The Impact of GDP Growth on Foreign Direct Investment: An Analytical Study

This study explores the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in developing economies. As FDI plays a pivotal role in driving economic progress, understanding its dynamics relative to GDP growth provides valuable insights for policymakers and investors. The manufacturing sector, with its need for cost efficiency, production scale, and infrastructure, attracts FDI when GDP growth fosters these elements. Conversely, the services sector, which relies on skilled labour and technology, benefits from rising GDP, fuelling local demand for services. This research uses historical data, descriptive statistics, and regression analyses to evaluate GDP's impact on FDI from 1970 to 2023. The findings reveal a positive correlation between GDP growth and FDI inflows, with distinct sectoral variations that highlight specific economic demands in manufacturing versus services. The study’s conclusions aim to guide targeted policies for fostering sectoral FDI, supporting balanced and sustainable economic development.

Foreign Direct Investment and Energy Demands: What Drives Economic Growth in Emerging Economies?

This study addresses two central questions: (a) Do inward foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers drive economic growth in emerging economies? and (b) How do the interconnectedness of inward FDI and energy demands cause economic growthin emerging economies? For the analysis, the study uses data from the World Development Indicators and Penn World Table 10.0, covering the period between 1994 and 2019. The results show evidence of bi-directional causality between inward FDI spillover and economic growth, and the relationships are negative. These results indicate that FDI inflows are less critical in economic growth in emerging economies and vice versa. Furthermore, non-renewable energy positively causes both economic growth and FDI inflows, whereas renewable energy negatively causes economic growth. More so, our results reveal a presence of bi-directional causality between FDI inflows and renewable energy in emerging economies. Finally, as these empirical insights have profound implications for governments and policymakers in these economies, the article proposes policies targeting sustainable economic growth and diffusions of renewable energy technologies through inward FDI spillover. JEL Codes: 047, F35, P18, P52, C10

FDI, industrialisation and environmental quality in SSA—the role of institutional quality towards environmental sustainability

In light of the quest to achieve economic development without compromising environmental quality, we empirically examine whether institutional quality (INSQY) can help moderate the possible harmful effects of foreign direct investments (FDI) and industrialisation on environmental quality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We utilise the Driscoll and Kraay standard error estimation technique on a panel of 45 SSA countries from 2000 to 2019. The results indicate that FDI and industrialisation generally have a significant harmful effect on the environment. Our findings reveal that INSQY directly promotes environmental quality. Notably, the results confirm that INSQY plays a stimulating role in mitigating the adverse effects of FDI and industrialisation on environmental quality. The results further validate the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in SSA. These findings contribute to environmental sustainability literature and offer policymakers insights on how INSQY can enhance environmental quality. Our empirical results are also robust to different estimation techniques, such as the two-stage least squares. We recommend SSA leaders strengthen institutional capacities, enforce environmental regulations, and implement strict policies to ensure environmental quality while promoting industrialisation and FDI inflows.

Austrian FDI in Asian economies: Does knowledge capital matter?

PurposeWhile Austrian foreign direct investment (FDI) in Asian economies experiences a rising trend, the following question arises: Why does Austria invest more in certain economies over others? This study intends to assess the factors that drive Austrian investment in Asian economies.Design/methodology/approachBased on the ownership, location and internalization framework and the knowledge capital approach, this study hypothesizes that knowledge capital significantly attracts FDI from Austria. Meanwhile, this study applies the panel-corrected standard error method to analyze data for 11 Asian economies from 1990 to 2022.FindingsAfter considering endogeneity, the results show a positive and significant correlation between expenditure in research and development per gross domestic product (GDP) in the host economies and FDI inflow from Austria. In addition, the study reveals that factors such as market size, trade openness and natural resources in the host economies significantly influence Austria’s FDI, which indicates that Austrian investors fall into the three main FDI typologies: market-seeking, resources-seeking and efficiency-seeking.Originality/valueThis study fills the literature gap by becoming the first to analyze the determinants of Austrian FDI in Asian economies, thus enriching our understanding of Austria’s global investment pattern.

Political Turbulence and its Impact on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in some selected African countries

This work examined the political turbulence and its impact on Foreign Direct Investment inflow on some selected African countries; Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya and South Africa. The aim is to determine how the political climate in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya and South Africa affects the inflow of foreign direct investment. The modified Cobb Douglass model was the theoretical underpinning of the study since growth in FDI is likened to output and the factors that lead to growth are the investment climate variables. Using the panel ARDL model analysis, the following findings were made: Political investment climate variable (PSI) had significant positive effect on the inflow of foreign direct investment in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya and South Africa. The result showed that Political investment climate variables (political stability and corruption index) exerted significant negative effects on the inflow of foreign direct investment into Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya and South Africa. It was recommended that; Efforts should be made by the governments of Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya and South Africa to enhance their economic fortunes by strengthening their economy through prioritizing political stability and addressing underlying causes of political unrest, corruption, weak institution and political social inequality. As well as engaging in massive production for exports which will boost economic growth and attract more foreign direct investment.

FDI Impact on China's Sectoral Performance: A Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis

This study provides a thorough examine the influence of FDI inflows and outflows on China's economic growth across three major sectors. Using panel data from 1997 to 2022 in China, it utilizes tests for unit roots and cointegration to investigate the enduring connection between FDI and economic growth. The research results validate the existence of a long-standing cointegration relationship between FDI and economic expansion. Additionally, this research employs the Granger causality test to ascertain the direction of causality between FDI and economic growth. The study reveals a two-way causality between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and overall economic growth, which supports the hypothesis of feedback causality. Additionally, there exists a one-way causality originating from FDI inflows across various sectors, suggesting that growth attracts FDI. The government should encourage foreign investment to enhance the industrial structure and boost economic growth.

The Role of Institutional Quality on FDI: A Comparison for Pre and Post – Global Financial Crises

In this study, the relative importance of institutional quality indicators on foreign direct investment (FDI) is investigated using a dynamic panel regression model for the countries that attracted the most FDI between 1996-2021. The World Bank (2023) data shows that FDI inflows gained a significant momentum at the beginning of the 2000s and reached its highest level in 2007. However, the Global Financial Crises (GFC) created a turning point in FDI inflows and it followed a very volatile course in the following years. For this reason, the analysis focused on the periods pre and post the global financial crisis. As a result of the study, it is revealed that all institutional quality indicators (except the rule of law) have positive effects on FDI inflows in the pre-crisis period, and regulatory effectiveness, government effectiveness and corruption control have a relatively higher impact on FDI inflows. On the other hand, it has been determined that no institutional quality indicator has a significant effect on foreign direct investments in the post-crisis period when FDI inflows are highly volatile.

The Impact of FDI On Economic Growth: Evidence from Different Sectors and Economic Conditions

The objective of this study is to examine how the foreign direct investment (FDI) influence China's economic expansion and evaluate its diverse role in various sectors and economic circumstances. This study uses multiple regression panel data Fixed Effects models with the robust standard errors to investigate further the potential significant impacts of both FDI inflows and outflows on economic development in China. The study employs panel data from 29 provinces in China, spanning the period from 2003 to 2021 for its analysis. This study found that FDI inflow contribute significantly and positively on growth in three different sectors, while outflow of FDI shows insignificant but positively correlated with growth. The results of coefficients reveal that FDI inflow in secondary sector has the strongest impact on growth, followed by primary and tertiary sector. Additionally, by including crisis in the models, the positive and significant impact of FDI inflow remain unchanged with the domestic investment became significantly and positively affect the economic growth. Hence, this study recommends the policy makers to promote and encourage more foreign investors to invest in China by giving some incentives such as reduction in capital gains taxes and more subsidies to the domestic firms especially in secondary sector.

Foreign direct investment inflow and the economic growth nexus in Tanzania

PurposeA shortage of investment capital is one of the main issues facing most developing economies, including Tanzania. Policymakers, economists, and governments in these countries have been debating how to overcome this obstacle and improve economic growth through foreign direct investments (FDI). The present study endeavors to examine the relationship between FDI and economic growth in Tanzania during the period of 1991–2021. The analysis considers financial development, capital formation, and labor force involvement as intermediation variables.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses time series data to estimate an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, as well as Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship between the variables under study.FindingsThe findings show a long-run co-integration between the studied variables. However, only FDI and labor input have a significant impact on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in both the short and long run. Bidirectional causality exists between FDI, labor input, and GDP growth in the short and long run.Practical implicationsThis study contributes to an understanding of the relationship between inbound FDI, labor input, and economic growth in Tanzania, as well as updating the government to improve its financial system to gain more from FDI inflows and hence boost growth-enhancing effects.Originality/valueThis study provides insight into the relationship between inbound FDI and economic growth in Tanzania, which is a critical policy concern in developing economies. Extant studies’ results remain controversial, and this is the first study in Tanzania to investigate the FDI-growth nexus, by considering financial development, capital formation, and labor input simultaneously.

The Determining Factors of Foreign Direct Investment: The Case of Turkiye

Direct investments are an important dynamic for sustainable economic growth and development. Especially developing countries need foreign capital more because their income and savings are not sufficient. Foreign direct investment is becoming increasingly important for sustainable development and stable growth. In Turkiye, national savings are not sufficient to realize investments. In order to increase foreign direct investment inflows, macroeconomic dynamics should be favorable. Therefore, determining the relationship between foreign direct investments and macroeconomic factors will make it more possible to monitor foreign investments. The aim of this study is to determine the determinants of foreign direct investments in Turkiye. In this context, exchange rate, CBRT reserves, inflation, economic growth rate and external debt data are used in this study. The study utilizes annual data for the period 1981-2021. The ARDL bounds test was used in the analysis. Findings show that exchange rate, economic growth and foreign debt are determinants of foreign direct investment.

Carbon dynamics: A holistic analysis of FDI, trade liberalization, urbanization, economic growth, and effects on CO2 emissions in South Asia

In recent years, South Asian nations have experienced robust economic growth, prompting concerns among policymakers about the sustainability of this growth due to rising pollution emissions. This study conducts an objective assessment of the impact of key variables, such as trade liberalization, economic growth, foreign direct investment inflows, and urbanization, on environmental outcomes across selected economies of South Asia from 1990 to 2022. To describe cross-sectional dependencies in the dataset, panel cointegration techniques are employed alongside cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) models. For added robustness, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) techniques are utilized to investigate the long-term coalition among the variables. The study integrates first- and second-generation panel methods to improve the depth and reliability of the analysis by addressing methodological limitations. The pragmatic results reveal that trade liberalization, FDI inflows, economic growth, and urbanization increase CO2 emissions by 0.392%, 0.354%, 0.275%, and 0.429%, respectively. Dumitrescu and Hurlin (D–H) causality tests show a unidirectional causal link from trade liberalization to environmental degradation. Additionally, a bidirectional causal link is observed between environmental deterioration and both FDI inflows and urbanization in South Asian countries. To mitigate environmental impact, these nations should evaluate foreign investment conditions and enhance technology transfer from foreign enterprises. Furthermore, implementing trade-related policies to reduce CO2 emissions is imperative.

Foreign Direct Investment and Its Effect on Agricultural Productivity Kenya

Kenya has historically been one of Africa's top destinations for foreign direct investment. Foreign direct investment is critical for Kenya's agricultural sector, offering capital, technology transfer, and skill development that enhance productivity and economic growth. Despite agriculture being a primary economic driver, challenges such as limited capital, outdated farming techniques, and insufficient infrastructure continue to hinder growth. The research explores the contribution of foreign direct investment on agricultural productivity in Kenya as well as to assess the effect of foreign direct investment on the productivity levels of small-scale and large-scale farmers in Kenya for a period 1993 to 2022. Neoclassical growth theory, Endogenous theory were key in guiding the study. This study adapted the causal research design employing time series data from World Bank spanning from years 1993 to 2022. Data was analyzed the data both descriptively and by inferential statistics. The findings of correlational analysis revealed a moderate positive relationships (r= 0.3213) between Foreign direct investment and agricultural productivity. Multiple regression analysis confirmed the significant positive effect of foreign direct investment on agricultural productivity with a coefficient of 0.3661 and p value 0.0014<0.05. This signifies that, in the short term, a 1% increase in foreign direct investment results in a 36.61% rise in the growth of Agricultural productivity, assuming all other variables remain constant. The findings implied that foreign direct investment inflow has the ability to create employment, technological development and improve access to international markets playing a pivotal role in accelerating the agricultural productivity. The Kenyan government should have more effective foreign direct investment strategies to facilitate technology transfer agreements between foreign investors and local agricultural enterprises, additionally, the government should pursue macroeconomic policies that attract foreign direct investment by providing an investor-friendly environment.

Indicators of Attracting Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: Evidence from Vietnam

In today’s global economy, whether in advanced or emerging markets, the importance of being open to trade and investment is widely acknowledged as a key driver of economic growth. This economic openness is primarily demonstrated through the unrestricted exchange of goods and services as well as the free movement of international capital. While previous studies have investigated the effects of export-driven, import-driven, and capital-driven growth strategies, this research focuses on analyzing the impact of each indicator of the Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) on attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). By utilizing a panel data model covering 63 provinces and cities in Vietnam from 2018 to 2022, this study explores the correlation between PCI, FDI, and economic expansion. Findings suggest that export-oriented growth policies can be more effective in fostering the development of Asian emerging economies than FDI-centric approaches. Nonetheless, FDI continues to be crucial for technology transfer, capital accumulation, and knowledge exchange in management. Regions with advanced economies are more appealing to FDI, while provinces with distinctive industrial strengths also attract foreign investment. To further boost FDI inflows, it is advised that the government streamline market entry procedures, reduce administrative and tax burdens, increase transparency, and promote fair competition. These measures are anticipated to improve the investment climate and enhance competitiveness on the global stage.

Sovereign ESG and Foreign Direct Investment in the GCC: The Amplifying Role of Trade Openness in Economic Diversification

This study examines the relationship between Sovereign Environmental, Social, and Governance (SESG) initiatives and foreign direct investment (FDI) within the context of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 2000 to 2022. The research explores how national ESG performance influences the attractiveness of these countries to foreign investors, with a particular focus on the moderating role of trade openness. Using a comprehensive panel data analysis, the study finds that strong SESG frameworks are positively correlated with higher FDI inflows, with trade openness amplifying the positive impact of SESG. Additionally, the use of Instrumental Variables (IV) estimation addresses endogeneity concerns, further confirming the robustness of the results. Moreover, the analysis reveals that trade openness amplifies the positive impact of SESG on FDI, suggesting that GCC countries with liberal trade policies and robust ESG practices are more successful in attracting sustainable and responsible investments. These findings contribute to the growing body of literature on ESG and FDI, offering valuable insights for policymakers seeking to enhance economic growth through strategic investments in sustainability and governance. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers in aligning SESG frameworks with global ESG standards and leveraging global liquidity conditions to enhance FDI inflows, particularly in light of ongoing economic diversification efforts in the GCC.

Uncovering Economic Growth Dynamics: The Role of Idiosyncratic Risk

Research Originality: This study provides a new perspective on the dynamics between foreign direct investment (FDI), idiosyncratic risk, and economic growth in ASEAN countries using structural equation modeling (SEM). It contributes to the literature by highlighting the nuanced role of idiosyncratic risk in shaping regional economic outcomes.Research Objectives: The study aims to examine the direct and indirect impacts of FDI inflows, idiosyncratic risk, and sectoral variables (manufacturing, agriculture, and services) on economic growth in ASEAN from 2013 to 2023.Research Methods: The study uses data from the ASEAN Statistical Database and applies SEM to estimate the relationships between these variables.Empirical Result: The main findings indicate that FDI inflows have minimal impact on idiosyncratic risk, as evidenced by regression coefficients below 0.001 for inward and intra-ASEAN FDI. In contrast, idiosyncratic risk significantly impacts economic growth. The results also reveal that sectoral variables such as manufacturing, agriculture, and services exhibit weaker associations with economic growth.Implications: This information suggests that policymakers should focus on exploiting idiosyncratic risk to improve economic development, while acknowledging the limited direct impact of FDI on risk management, thereby debating more appropriate strategies to promote sustainable economic growthJEL Classification: A11, E60, H11