Winter Flooding Research Articles

Spatial Variation of Changes in Extreme Discharge Seasonality Across the Northeastern United States

ABSTRACTThe Northeast United States exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity in flood seasonality, with spring snowmelt‐driven floods historically dominating northern areas, while other regions show more varied flood seasonality. While it is well documented that since 1996 there has been a marked increase in extreme precipitation across this region, the response of flood seasonality to these changes in extreme precipitation and the spatial distribution of these effects remain uncertain. Here we show that, historically, snowmelt‐dominated northern regions were relatively insensitive to changes in extreme precipitation. However, with climate warming, the dominance of snowmelt floods is decreasing and thus the extreme flood regimes in northern regions are increasingly susceptible to changes in extreme precipitation. While extreme precipitation increased everywhere in the Northeastern United States in 1996, it has since returned to near pre‐1996 levels in the coastal north while remaining elevated in the inland north. Thus, the inland north region has and continues to experience the greatest changes in extreme flooding seasonality, including a substantial rise in floods outside the historical spring flood season, particularly in smaller watersheds. Further analysis reveals that while early winter floods are increasingly common, the magnitude of cold season floods (Nov‐May) have remained unchanged over time. In contrast, warm season floods (June‐Oct), historically less significant, are now increasing in both frequency and magnitude in the inland north. Our results highlight that treating the entire Northeast as a uniform hydroclimatic region conceals significant regional variations in extreme discharge trends and, more generally, climate warming will likely increase the sensitivity of historically snowmelt dominated watersheds to extreme precipitation. Understanding this spatial variability in increased extreme precipitation and increased sensitivity to extreme precipitation is crucial for enhancing disaster preparedness and refining water management strategies in affected regions.

Effect of winter flooding on navel orangeworm and spider mites in almond orchard

Effect of winter flooding on navel orangeworm and spider mites in almond orchard

Dune elongation and hunting strategy during the Terminal Pleistocene (Ramonian): Insights from Mizpor Ashalim, northwestern Negev dunefield margins, Israel

The Middle Epipalaeolithic Ramonian culture, endemic to the Negev-Sinai desert, incorporates highland occupations alongside lowland dune-associated localities. The lowland sites, dominated by microlithic tools, have been hypothesized to be prime hunting settings. Here we investigate this hypothesis based on the data from Mizpor Ashalim - a new Ramonian site located upon a falling dune overlooking the central Besor Valley. The study incorporates analysis of projectile damage on microlithic tools, geomorphology, portable OSL profiling, and OSL ages of the dune deposits, as well as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) investigation. GIS mapping of relevant sites alongside the ancient dune-dammed water bodies constitutes an additional methodological tool newly applied in the current study.The results support the hypothesis and suggest that Ramonian hunting strategy was associated with dune-dammed, medium-sized basins that formed ecological niches following winter floods. The study sheds new light on adaptations developed by different cultural entities occupying the region during the Terminal Pleistocene and their connection with changing environmental settings. At the same time, it emphasizes technological continuity throughout the cultural sequence in the arid environments of the Southern Levant, expressed in microliths production and projectile design. This continuity, not observed in the Mediterranean climate zone, underscores the importance of understanding the social and economic dynamics in the desert areas of the Southern Levant to comprehend the processes that led to sedentism and food production in the region.

Evaluation of the incident management system of a bigger city during the winter flood 2023/24 in northern Germany: Organized (ir)responsibility in the pre-disaster phase

Incident management systems operate within complex and uncertain conditions during disasters. Therefore, researching their activities is challenging as there is no clear right or wrong. The winter 2023/2024 flood event in the city of Oldenburg, Germany, provided an opportunity to evaluate crisis management under high uncertainty, although no disaster has eventually occurred. Three stakeholder groups of the Incident Management System were examined through After-Action Reviews: The Emergency Operation Center (EOC), specialist advisors, and the Area Command (AC). Data on performance shaping factors (descriptions and judgements) were collected and analyzed using the Countenance Evaluation Model as a general framework in combination with a Systems-Thinking approach. The study aimed to identify variables within and between groups as well as factors in the environment that either hindered or facilitated work transactions. It emerged that the work organization in bodies of public administration is at odds with the uncertain, fast-paced, and problem-oriented structure of Incident Management System operations, causing stress and adding workload to employees. Additionally, the separation of strategic and tactical decision making led to coordination issues due to divergent time structures and task logics of EOC and AC. Furthermore, although specialist advisors played a crucial role in risk assessments and setting the direction of risk mitigation activities, it became clear that this person related resource is scarce and difficult to embed into the Incident Command System. A final finding is the importance of the larger Emergency Operation Center working environment. The spatial constraints and noise levels caused stress.

Flood frequency analysis using mean daily flows vs. instantaneous peak flows

Abstract. In many cases, flood frequency analysis (FFA) needs to be carried out on mean daily flows (MDF) instead of instantaneous peak flows (IPF), which can lead to underestimation of design flows. Typically, correction methods are applied to the MDF data to account for such underestimation. In this study, we first analyse the error distribution of MDF-derived flood quantiles over 648 catchments in Germany. The results show that using MDF instead of IPF data can lead to underestimation of the mean annual peak flow (MHQ) by up to 80 % and mainly depends on the catchment area but appears to be influenced by gauge elevation as well. This relationship is shown to differ for summer vs. winter floods. To correct such underestimation, different linear models based on predictors derived from MDF hydrograph and catchment characteristics are investigated. Apart from the catchment area, a key predictor in these models is the event-based ratio of flood peak to flood volume (p/V ratio) obtained by the MDF data. The p/V models applied to either MDF-derived events or statistics seem to outperform other reference correction methods. Moreover, they require a minimum data input, are easily applied, and are valid for the entire study area. The best results are achieved when the L moments of the MDF maximum annual series are corrected with the proposed model, which reduces the flood quantile errors by up to 60 %. The approach behaves particularly well in smaller catchments (<500 km2), where reference methods fall short. However, the limit of the proposed approach is reached for catchment sizes under 100 km2, where the hydrograph information from the daily series is no longer capable of approximating instantaneous flood dynamics and gauge elevations below 100 m, where the difference between MDF and IPF floods is very small.

Are extreme floods on the Danube River becoming more frequent? A case study of Bratislava station

Abstract In this study, strong and extreme flood events were analysed on the basis of long-term daily runoff records of winter and summer floods in the Danube River between 1876 and 2020, using the peaks-over-threshold method. Based on the results, the following conclusions can be made: (1) There is a downward trend in strong winter floods, but it is not statistically significant. Additionally, there is an upward trend in summer floods, but this is not statistically significant. (2) There are statistically significant upward trends in extreme events for both the winter and summer seasons. The results have implications for flood protection and disaster management on the Danube River. Regulation of assets in flood-prone areas is essential for minimising economic damage. Public awareness of increasing extreme summer floods is vital for prevention. This study suggests that effective flood risk analysis requires (i) a local- to regional-scale approach to account for spatial variability and (ii) advanced statistical tools for robust detection of climate extremes and estimation of their occurrence rates.

Characterization of the benthic biogeochemical dynamics after flood events in the Rhône River prodelta: a data–model approach

Abstract. At the land–sea interface, the benthic carbon cycle is strongly influenced by the export of terrigenous particulate material across the river–ocean continuum. Episodic flood events delivering massive sedimentary materials can occur, but their short-term impact on carbon cycling is poorly understood. In this paper, we use a coupled data–model approach to estimate the temporal variations in sediment–water fluxes, biogeochemical pathways and their reaction rates during these abrupt phenomena. We studied one episodic depositional event in the vicinity of the Rhône River mouth (NW Mediterranean Sea) during the fall–winter of 2021/22. The distributions of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), sulfate (SO42-) and methane (CH4) were measured in sediment porewaters collected every 2 weeks before and after the deposition of a 25 cm sediment layer during the main winter flood event. Significant changes in the distribution of DIC, SO42- and CH4 concentrations were observed in the sediment porewaters. The use of an early diagenetic model (FESDIA) to calculate biogeochemical reaction rates and fluxes revealed that this type of flood event can increase the total organic carbon mineralization rate in the sediment by 75 % a few days after deposition. In this period, sulfate reduction is the main process contributing to the increase in total mineralization relative to non-flood deposition. The model predicts a short-term decrease in the DIC flux out of the sediment from 100 to 55 mmolm-2d-1 after the deposition of the new sediment layer with a longer-term increase by 4 %, therefore implying an initial internal storage of DIC in the newly deposited layer and a slow release over relaxation of the system. Furthermore, examination of the stoichiometric ratios of DIC and SO42- as well as model output over this 5-month window shows a decoupling between the two modes of sulfate reduction following the deposition – organoclastic sulfate reduction (OSR) intensified in the newly deposited layer below the sediment surface, whereas anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) intensified at depth below the former buried surface. The bifurcation depth of sulfate reduction pathways, i.e., the sulfate–methane transition zone (SMTZ), is shifted deeper by 25 cm in the sediment column following the flood deposition. Our findings highlight the significance of short-term transient biogeochemical processes at the seafloor and provide new insights into the benthic carbon cycle in the coastal ocean.

Temporal changes in the frequency of flood types and their impact on flood statistics

Standard flood frequency analysis assumes stationarity of flood conditions, i.e., no change of the distribution over time. However, long-term variability in climate and anthropogenic impacts question this assumption. Consequently, more and more non-stationary models are considered in flood frequency analyses. Yet, most of them only consider a change-point or trend in the magnitude of flood peaks while ignoring changes in the underlying flood geneses. Recent climate reports suggest such a change in frequency of certain flood-generating factors, e.g., the increase of frequency of heavy-rainfall events. In this study, flood types are applied to detect changes in the meteorological drivers of flood regimes. By application of a robust change-point test for the variance based on Gini’s Mean Difference, significant changes in the frequency of occurrence of certain flood types are detected. A clear tendency to more frequent heavy-rainfall floods and less snowmelt-induced floods is observed for many catchments in Central Europe. A special focus is laid on the shifts in winter floods, which occur less often and are replaced by rainfall-driven floods. The impacts of such changes on flood statistics are demonstrated by several approaches. Though the magnitude of flood peaks does not (necessarily) change, the changing frequency of floods leads to changing flood quantiles. Quantile estimations from traditional statistical analyses of annual series are compared to results of type-based flood statistics. It is shown how standard models are more affected by these changes because they are not able to compensate for changes in the frequency of individual flood types.

Benthic contribution to seasonal silica budgets in two macrotidal estuaries in North-Western France

The paper aims to build seasonal silica budgets in two macrotidal estuaries, the Elorn and Aulne estuaries of the Bay of Brest (North-Western France), based on modeling and measurements, in order to increase our understanding of the silica (Si) cycle at land-sea interfaces. A diagenetic model was developed to quantify benthic Si fluxes, e.g. aSiO2 deposition fluxes that are difficult to assess through direct measurements. Sediment cores were also seasonally sampled at six stations to provide data essential to parametrize and validate the model. Vertical profiles of porosity, burrowing depth, biodiffusive coefficients, concentrations of amorphous silica (aSiO2) and silicic acid (Si(OH)4 and the proportion of reactive aSiO2 were measured. The results show that sites sampled along the Elorn and Aulne estuaries constitute significant net Si deposition areas (1-4.5 mmol Si m-2 d-1), particularly in the upstream during winter and in midstream and downstream during summer. Year round, reprecipitation is negligible (< 3%) while burial accounts for the retention of ~ 30-80% of deposited aSiO2. In winter, burial dominates the benthic Si budget. As surface-integrated benthic Si fluxes are low compared to riverine aSiO2 fluxes, the Si export to coastal waters is high (93%) during winter. In contrast, in summer, burial accounts for 38% of river Si fluxes, and Si(OH)4 flux from the sediment is high as a result of enhanced benthic recycling and bioirrigation. Internal estuarine processes, e.g., benthic and pelagic primary production, dissolution and benthic Si fluxes, surpass river fluxes in magnitude during summer. Overall, we conclude that the Elorn and Aulne macrotidal estuaries are efficient filters of Si, retaining about 4-38% of river Si fluxes, and even 6-67% when accounting for retention in intertidal marshes, but with massive exports occurring during winter floods.

Keeping Water in Climate-Changed Headwaters Longer

Climate-change projections for California confidently describe a future with warmer temperatures, more evaporative demand, less snow, more rain, earlier and flashier runoff and streamflow, and drier summer conditions. The future of annual precipitation is much less certain, but a fairly unanimous projection of drier, more drought-prone conditions punctuated by occasional stronger-than-historical storms is almost as common among projections as is the warming itself. Rather than focusing on the less certain annual precipitation changes, we recommend more focus on keeping water in the headwaters longer. Doing so will involve reducing winter flood flows from headwater catchments, reducing the summer aridification (and wildfire risks) there, salvaging some groundwater recharge that would likely otherwise be lost, and overall, perpetuating headwater (and downstream) hydrologies under more historical and natural conditions. Among the available near-term adaptation strategies for keeping water in the headwaters longer, we discuss several examples here: (1) an increased emphasis on soils and percolation management as a priority and co-benefit in forest-health restoration activities; (2) beaver-population restoration or proliferation of beaver-inspired infrastructures; and (3) upstream-focused, forecast-informed reservoir-operation (FIRO) strategies.

Beyond the local climate change uplift – The importance of changes in spatial structure on future fluvial flood risk in Great Britain

Widespread spatially coherent flood events can cause severe damage and disruption. Climate change has the potential to change the severity and frequency of such events. Despite this, assessment of future fluvial flood risk typically gives little to no consideration to potential changes in the spatial structure of future events. To understand the significance of this gap, climate model simulations are coupled with a national hydrological model to identify event spatially coherent present and future flood events. A statistical Empirical Copula is used to generate a large number of unseen events and linked to a national flood risk simulation model. The research finds that including changes in the spatial structure of flood events materially increases projected changes in risk when compared to conventional approaches based on local uplifts alone; increasing the projected change in Expected Annual Damage across Great Britain by a factor of ~ 1.5. The event-based approach is also shown to provide new insights into the extreme distribution fluvial risk including single event damage, damage seasons, and damage years. The results suggest the 1-in-100-year winter flood may increase from £1.3b to £2.1b, and the 1-in-100 year single event damage may rise from £1.1b today to £1.7b by the 2080s given a 4 °C rise in Global Mean Surface Temperature (assuming current adaptation policies continue and no population growth). Consequently, the findings suggest a much greater emphasis is needed on spatial ‘flood events’ if future risk is to be understood and adaptation responses appropriately framed.Graphical abstract

Revealing the Key Drivers Conducive to the “Once‐In‐A‐Century” 2021 Peninsular Malaysia Flood

AbstractIn December 2021, Super Typhoon Rai caused significant devastation to the South Philippines and East Malaysia. In the meantime, an unprecedented flood event occurred in Peninsular Malaysia at 2,000 km west of the typhoon's path, causing comparable socioeconomic impacts as Rai. Record‐breaking 3‐day precipitation was received by Peninsular Malaysia during 16–18 December. Based on the storm tracking results, this study identified two mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that were directly responsible for the flooding. The two MCSs were directly initiated by a tropical depression and sustained by an elongated easterly water vapor corridor originating from the Super Typhoon Rai. The return period and joint frequency analysis of key drivers indicate that the 3‐day downpour was more severe than a “once‐in‐a‐century” event. Historical records suggest such anomalous moisture channel has become more frequent in Southeast Asia, which alarms heightened attention in forecasting winter flood.

Soil carbon mineralization, enzyme activities, and crop residue decomposition under varying soil moisture regimes

AbstractIn the Lower Mississippi River Basin, farmlands are flooded in late fall and winter by impeding drainage to provide a habitat for migratory birds stopover. A laboratory incubation study was conducted to study the influence of temporary wetting of these soils on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) mineralization from residue decomposition. Surface soils (0–15 cm) were collected from fields with clay and silty clay loam soils. Both soils were incubated with five crop residues—corn (Zea mays), soybean (Glycine max), cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), and sweet potato (Ipomea batatus)—at 50% and 100% water holding capacity (WHC). Soil carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux was measured during 74 days of incubation. Soil moisture had the largest effect on soil CO2 efflux and most of the enzyme activities followed by residue and soil type. Cumulative soil CO2 efflux was reduced by 46% at 100% WHC compared to 50% WHC. Clay soil had higher cumulative CO2 efflux, aryl sulfatase, aryl phosphatase, and β‐N‐acetyl glucose aminidase activities than silty clay loam soil. Residue type had the largest effect on post‐incubation soil inorganic‐N, remaining biomass, and residue C and residue N. Sweet potato residue had the lowest remaining biomass, significantly lower than cotton, corn, and sorghum, but statistically similar to soybean. After incubation, residue N concentration had a positive association with cumulative CO2 efflux and a negative association with remaining residue biomass percentage. Winter flooding might limit the loss of soil C as CO2 depending on the crops grown and soil type.

Integrating multisource information to delineate oasis farmland salinity management zones in southern Xinjiang, China

Soil salinization and the shortage of water resources have become important factors affecting the sustainable development of agriculture in the southern Xinjiang. Agricultural flooding in winter or spring is the main means to reduce the damage of secondary soil salinization in southern Xinjiang. However, the spatial heterogeneity of soil salinization is not considered in previous irrigation strategy. Excessive irrigation always leads to a serious waste of agricultural water resources. Irrigation zones delineation based on the degree of soil salinization is beneficial for the management of agricultural salinized land and the improvement of water use efficiency in arid areas. This study used 1599 sets of apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) data obtained before winter irrigation and after crop harvest to characterize soil salinity directly. And the spatial heterogeneity of soil salinity in the study area was analyzed directly using ECa values and statistical as well as geostatistical methods. Three main variables obtained from apparent electrical conductivity measurements (EC0.375, EC0.75, EC1.5), vegetation information (NDVI, GNDVI, SAVI), which indirectly reflected the degree of salinity, and environmental factors (Clay, Sand, Silt, DEM), which affecting the distribution of salinity, were used as auxiliary variables. Four zoning models including soil information, soil + vegetation information, soil information + environmental factors and soil + vegetation information + environmental factors were constructed. A multi-scale segmentation algorithm was used to delineate for four zone patterns and evaluate the results of management zones based on the different information. The results showed that there was a strong spatial heterogeneity of soil salinity in the study area, with the coefficients of variation of ECa all higher than 74 %. But the mean of coefficient of variation intra-zone in each zone after delineation was less than 24 %, which was significantly lower than the value before delineation. The zoning result based on only soil information was more fragmented than other zoning results, and the homogeneity intra-zone and heterogeneity among zones were both lower. This result was not desirable to the development and effective implementation of water resource allocation. Management zones delineation with additional vegetation information or environmental factors showed a better zoning result. Delineation using multisource data of soil, vegetation information and environmental factors not only had the highest homogeneity intra-zone and heterogeneity among zones, but also facilitated the implementation of variable-rate irrigation. Consequently, salinity management zoning, which integrates soil, vegetation information and environmental factors, will facilitate the implementation of efficient irrigation with variable irrigating rate.

Decadal shifts in the population growth, regeneration, and health of Taxodium distichum in swamps of the Cache River Watershed, Illinois

Population projection models based on long-term trends in regeneration and tree survival can be used to predict the future stability of swamp forest species using water management. Population growth and regeneration of a foundational tree species in North American cypress swamps (Taxodium distichum) were compared in the Cache River watershed of southern Illinois USA over several decades. This study examined T. distichum population growth in several regional swamps within the Cache River watershed along a moisture gradient to model growth, stability, or decline based on data of life history stage transitions, using data from the following time periods: the 1990s, 2002–2011, and 2012–2022. Using data from the 1990s, T. distichum populations in Crawford Tract in Buttonland Swamp were projected to increase over time because of the high frequency of juvenile stages at elevations with growing season drawdown and winter flooding. The situation in Crawford Tract had changed by 2019–2021 because T. distichum seedlings had not transitioned (i.e., saplings and young trees were absent) although no old-growth trees had died during or after the 1990s. In other regional swamps, projection models were constructed over two decades (2006–2021) along a dry-to-wet flood gradient including Section 8 Woods, Deer Pond, Wildcat Bluff, Snake Hole, and Heron Pond. Populations in swamps on the drier end of the gradient had more support from juvenile stages. In a tree health survey in 2022 within the impounded interior of Buttonland Swamp (not Crawford Tract), seventy percent of the old-growth T. distichum trees were stressed or declining. Coupled with the fact that no seedlings or saplings were observed, the populations in the interior of the swamp were not stable. Many factors could further stress these ancient T. distichum including interactions of impoundment with chemicals, disease, and changes in air temperature and precipitation. Overall, the seedling abundance in these swamps increased in these environments from 2012 to 2021, except in the most flooded swamps. From a management perspective, drier conditions were more conducive to the success of the earlier life history stages of T. distichum in these old-growth forests.

Antecedent Snowpack Cold Content Alters the Hydrologic Response to Extreme Rain-on-Snow Events

Abstract Predicting winter flooding is critical to protecting people and securing water resources in California’s Sierra Nevada. Rain-on-snow (ROS) events are a common cause of widespread flooding and are expected to increase in both frequency and magnitude with anthropogenic climate change in this region. ROS flood severity depends on terrestrial water input (TWI), the sum of rain and snowmelt that reaches the land surface. However, an incomplete understanding of the processes that control the flow and refreezing of liquid water in the snowpack limits flood prediction by operational and research models. We examine how antecedent snowpack conditions alter TWI during 71 ROS events between water years 1981 and 2019. Observations across a 500-m elevation gradient from the Independence Creek catchment were input into SNOWPACK, a one-dimensional, physically based snow model, initiated with the Richards equation and calibrated with collocated snow pillow observations. We compare observed “historical” and “scenario” ROS events, where we hold meteorologic conditions constant but vary snowpack conditions. Snowpack variables include cold content, snow density, liquid water content, and snow water equivalent. Results indicate that historical events with TWI > rain are associated with the largest observed streamflows. A multiple linear regression analysis of scenario events suggests that TWI is sensitive to interactions between snow density and cold content, with denser (>0.30 g cm−3) and colder (<−0.3 MJ of cold content) snowpacks retaining >50 mm of TWI. These results highlight the importance of hydraulic limitations in dense snowpacks and energy limitations in warm snowpacks for retaining liquid water that would otherwise be available as TWI for flooding. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to understand how the snowpack modulates quantities of water that reach the land surface during rain-on-snow (ROS) events. While the amount of near-term storm rainfall is reasonably predicted by meteorologists, major floods associated with ROS are more difficult to predict and are expected to increase in frequency. Our key findings are that liquid water inputs to the land surface vary with snowpack characteristics, and although many hydrologic models incorporate snowpack cold content and density to some degree, the complexity of ROS events justifies the need for additional observations to improve operational forecasting model results. Our findings suggest additional comparisons between existing forecasting models and those that physically represent the snowpack, as well as field-based observations of cold content and density and liquid water content, would be useful follow-up investigations.

Morphologic, Atmospheric, and Oceanic Drivers Cause Multi‐Temporal Saltwater Intrusion on a Remote, Sand Island

AbstractSmall‐island populations disproportionately rely on fresh groundwater resources, which are increasingly threatened by salinization from changing ocean and climate conditions. This study investigates island groundwater dynamics and salinization over multiple timescales in response to marine, atmospheric, and morphologic drivers. New geophysical and hydrological data sets were collected on a remote sand island in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean between 2020 and 2022 and compared to historical baseline data from the 1970s. Data reveal saltwater intrusion due to multi‐decadal erosion, seasonal climate patterns, tidal forcing, and episodic flooding from Atlantic hurricanes. Long‐term dune erosion has caused the freshwater lens to thin and become asymmetrical; however, a lagged groundwater response causes the freshwater lens to be in disequilibrium with present island morphology. The maximum vertical lens thickness is seasonally constant, but the lateral transition zone along the coast thickens and moves seaward in spring when the water table is high from precipitation and frequent beach flooding. Groundwater level and electrical conductivity along low‐lying beaches significantly increase following Atlantic hurricanes due to seawater flooding, and reach a maximum of 1.93 m above sea level and 38 mS/cm, respectively. While groundwater levels recover quickly, conductivity (salinity) remains elevated due to the short intervals between winter flood events that outpace freshening from meteoric recharge. Results emphasize the importance of multi‐temporal groundwater dynamics and feedbacks between coastal flooding, erosion, and salinization. Field‐based studies considering multiple drivers and timescales of saltwater intrusion are critical for understanding and managing coastal freshwater resources in an age of rapid environmental change.

Iron isotopes reveal seasonal variations in the mechanisms for iron-bearing particle and colloid formation in the Lena River catchment, NE Siberia

Large Arctic rivers are an important source of iron (Fe) to the Arctic Ocean, though seasonal variations in the terrestrial source and supply of Fe to the ocean are unknown. To constrain the seasonal variability, we present Fe concentrations and isotopic compositions (δ56Fe) for particulate (>0.22 µm) and colloidal (<0.22 µm–1 kDa) Fe from the Lena River, NE Russia. Samples were collected every month during winter baseflow (September 2012–March 2013) and every 2–3 days before, during and after river ice break-up (May 2015).Iron in particles have isotope ratios lower than crustal values during winter (e.g., δ56FePart = −0.37 ± 0.16‰), and crustal-like values during river ice break-up and spring flood (e.g., δ56FePart = 0.07 ± 0.08‰), indicating a change in the source of particulate Fe between winter and spring flood. Low isotope values are indicative of mineral dissolution, transport of reduced Fe in sub-oxic, ice-covered sub-permafrost groundwaters and near-quantitative precipitation of Fe as particles. Crustal-like isotopic compositions result from the increased supply of detrital particles from riverbank and soil erosion during river ice break-up and flooding. Iron colloids (<0.22 μm) have δ56Fe values that are comparable to or lower than crustal values during winter (e.g., δ56FeCol = −0.08 ± 0.05‰) but similar to or higher than crustal values during spring flood (e.g., δ56FeCol = +0.24 ± 0.11‰). Low δ56Fe ratios for colloidal Fe during winter are consistent with precipitation from isotopically light Fe(II)aq transported in sub-permafrost groundwaters. Higher colloidal δ56Fe ratios during the spring flood indicate that these colloids are supplied from surface soils, where Fe is fractionated via oxidation or organic carbon complexation, similar to during summer. Approximately half of the annual colloidal Fe flux occurs during spring flood while most of the remaining colloidal Fe is supplied during summer months. The total amount of colloidal Fe transported during winter was relatively low. The seasonal variation in colloidal Fe isotope values may be a useful tool to trace the source of colloidal Fe to the Arctic Ocean and monitor future changes in the sources and supply of Fe from the permafrost landscape to the Lena River basin.

Icing and aufeis in cold regions II: consequences and mitigation

The process of icing and the resulting layered ice masses, called aufeis, are caused by the freezing of overflow originating from groundwater or surface water. Aufeis can directly impact infrastructure and property, most commonly through winter ice formation and spring flooding within, against, and on the surface of hydraulic structures and transportation infrastructure. They also represent a safety concern for drivers. This geohazard often needs to be managed proactively and efficiently to mitigate associated risks. This paper provides an overview of the consequences of aufeis in northwestern Canada. A total of 50 existing and novel icing and aufeis mitigation approaches are described and classified. The context of applicability for each approach is identified, considering the source of water, the type of infrastructure, and its role in the formation of aufeis. Finally, future research avenues to support the development or improvement of aufeis risk reduction techniques are presented.

Climate impact on flood changes – an Austrian-Ukrainian comparison

Abstract This study compares the flood regime of rivers in Ukraine and Austria over the last decades. We used data from mountain and lowland watersheds, where floods are caused by different processes. In order to identify possible shifts in the day of occurrence of annual flood maxima, we apply the kernel density method to the time series of two subperiods (1960–1987 and 1988–2015). We use the Mann Kendall test at a 5% significance level to identify significant positive or negative trends in the series of annual maximum discharges. In Austria, we observe an increasing trend in summer floods associated with increasing precipitation. In the lowland areas of Ukraine, a clear reduction in spring floods is observed, linked to shallower snow packs in a warming climate. In the Ukrainian Carpathians, on the other hand, where floods occur throughout the year, an increase in the portion of liquid precipitation during the cold period of the year leads to earlier floods and an increase in the probability of flooding in winter.