Flood Susceptibility Modeling Research Articles

Artificial intelligence in environmental monitoring: in-depth analysis

This study provides a comprehensive bibliometric and in-depth analysis of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) applications in environmental monitoring, based on 4762 publications from 1991 to 2024. The research highlights a notable increase in publications and citations since 2010, with China, the United States, and India emerging as leading contributors. Key areas of research include air and water quality monitoring, climate change modeling, biodiversity assessment, and disaster management. The integration of AI with emerging technologies, such as the Internet of Things (IoT) and remote sensing, has significantly expanded real-time environmental monitoring capabilities and data-driven decision-making. In-depth analysis reveals advancements in AI/ML methodologies, including novel algorithms for soil mapping, land-cover classification, flood susceptibility modeling, and remote sensing image analysis. Notable applications include enhanced air quality predictions, water quality assessments, climate impact forecasting, and automated wildlife monitoring using AI-driven image recognition. Challenges such as the “black-box” nature of AI models, the need for high-quality data in resource-constrained regions, and the complexity of real-time disaster management are also addressed. The study highlights ongoing efforts to develop explainable AI (XAI) models, which aim to improve model transparency and trust in critical environmental applications. Future research directions emphasize improving data quality and availability, fostering interdisciplinary collaborations across environmental and computer sciences, and addressing ethical considerations in AI-driven environmental management. These findings underscore the transformative potential of AI and ML technologies for sustainable environmental management, offering valuable insights for researchers and policymakers in addressing global environmental challenges.

A novel flood conditioning factor based on topography for flood susceptibility modeling

Flood is one of the most devastating natural hazards. Employing machine learning models to construct flood susceptibility maps has become a pivotal step for decision-makers in disaster prevention and management. Existing flood conditioning factors inadequately account for regional characteristics of flood in the depiction of topography, potentially leading to an overestimation of flood susceptibility in flat areas. Addressing this gap, this study proposes a novel flood conditioning factor, local convexity factor (LCF), to enhance the accuracy of flood susceptibility modeling. Initially, LCF is computed based on a standard normal Gaussian surface to highlight elevation variations in local terrain. Subsequently, LCF is applied to flood susceptibility modeling using seven machine learning models across four distinct basins. Comparative analysis is conducted between flood susceptibility maps with and without the application of LCF to evaluate its impact on flood susceptibility modeling. The results demonstrate that the proposed LCF can enhance the accuracy of flood susceptibility modeling to varying degrees, across the four basins investigated. The Fujiang basin exhibited the most substantial improvement, with its AUC improved from 0.861 to 0.886, Producer’s Agreement improved from 0.869 to 0.899, and Overall Agreement improved from 0.778 to 0.811. Comparation with hydrodynamic inundation maps shows that particularly in relatively flat terrain areas, flood susceptibility maps incorporating LCF offer more precise delineation between flood-prone and non-flood-prone zones. This research holds potential for widespread application in the prediction of flood susceptibility using machine learning models, providing a novel perspective for enhancing their accuracy

Enhancing flood susceptibility modeling using integration of multi-source satellite imagery and multi-input convolutional neural network

Enhancing flood susceptibility modeling using integration of multi-source satellite imagery and multi-input convolutional neural network

Advancing flood susceptibility modeling using stacking ensemble machine learning: A multi-model approach

Advancing flood susceptibility modeling using stacking ensemble machine learning: A multi-model approach

Enhancing the Performance of Machine Learning and Deep Learning-Based Flood Susceptibility Models by Integrating Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) Algorithm

Flooding is a recurrent hazard occurring worldwide, resulting in severe losses. The preparation of a flood susceptibility map is a non-structural approach to flood management before its occurrence. With recent advances in artificial intelligence, achieving a high-accuracy model for flood susceptibility mapping (FSM) is challenging. Therefore, in this study, various artificial intelligence approaches have been utilized to achieve optimal accuracy in flood susceptibility modeling to address this challenge. By incorporating the grey wolf optimizer (GWO) metaheuristic algorithm into various models—including recurrent neural networks (RNNs), support vector regression (SVR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—the objective of this modeling is to generate flood susceptibility maps and evaluate the variation in model performance. The tropical Manimala River Basin in India, severely battered by flooding in the past, has been selected as the test site. This modeling utilized 15 conditioning factors such as aspect, enhanced built-up and bareness index (EBBI), slope, elevation, geomorphology, normalized difference water index (NDWI), plan curvature, profile curvature, soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), stream density, soil texture, stream power index (SPI), terrain ruggedness index (TRI), land use/land cover (LULC) and topographic wetness index (TWI). Thus, six susceptibility maps are produced by applying the RNN, SVR, XGBoost, RNN-GWO, SVR-GWO, and XGBoost-GWO models. All six models exhibited outstanding (AUC above 0.90) performance, and the performance ranks in the following order: RNN-GWO (AUC: 0.968) > XGBoost-GWO (AUC: 0.961) > SVR-GWO (AUC: 0.960) > RNN (AUC: 0.956) > XGBoost (AUC: 0.953) > SVR (AUC: 0.948). It was discovered that the hybrid GWO optimization algorithm improved the performance of three models. The RNN-GWO-based flood susceptibility map shows that 8.05% of the MRB is very susceptible to floods. The modeling found that the SPI, geomorphology, LULC, stream density, and TWI are the top five influential conditioning factors.

GIS-Based Integrated Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment in Makedonska Kamenica Municipality, North Macedonia

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of natural hazard susceptibility in the Makedonska Kamenica municipality of North Macedonia, encompassing erosion assessment, landslides, flash floods, and forest fire vulnerability. Employing advanced GIS and remote sensing (RS) methodologies, hazard models were meticulously developed and integrated to discern areas facing concurrent vulnerabilities. Findings unveil substantial vulnerabilities prevalent across the area, notably along steep terrain gradients, river valleys, and deforested landscapes. Erosion assessment reveals elevated rates, with a mean erosion coefficient (Z) of 0.61 and an annual erosion production of 182,712.9 m3, equivalent to a specific erosion rate of 961.6 m3/km2/year. Landslide susceptibility analysis identifies 31.8% of the municipality exhibiting a very high probability of landslides, while flash flood susceptibility models depict 3.3% of the area prone to very high flash flood potential. Forest fire susceptibility mapping emphasizes slightly less than one-third of the municipality’s forested area is highly or very highly susceptible to fires. Integration of these hazard models elucidates multi-hazard zones, revealing that 11.0% of the municipality’s territory faces concurrent vulnerabilities from excessive erosion, landslides, flash floods, and forest fires. These zones are predominantly located in upstream areas, valleys of river tributaries, and the estuary region. The identification of multi-hazard zones underscores the critical need for targeted preventive measures and robust land management strategies to mitigate potential disasters and safeguard both human infrastructure and natural ecosystems. Recommendations include the implementation of enhanced monitoring systems, validation methodologies, and community engagement initiatives to bolster hazard preparedness and response capabilities effectively.

Flood Susceptibility Mapping for Kedah State, Malaysia: Geographics Information System-Based Machine Learning Approach

ABSTRACT Background: The world economy is significantly impacted by floods. Identifying flood risk is essential to flood mitigation techniques. Aim: The primary goal of this study is to create a geographic information system (GIS)-based flood susceptibility map for the study area. Methods: Ten flood-influencing factors from a geospatial database were taken into account when mapping the flood-prone areas. Every element demonstrated a robust relationship with the probability of flooding. Results: The highest contributing elements for the flood disaster in the study region were drainage density, distance, and the curvature. Flood susceptibility models’ performance was validated using standard statistical measures and AUC. The ROC curves demonstrated that all ensemble models had good performance on the validation data sets (AUC = >0.97) with high accuracy scores of 0.80. Based on the flood susceptibility maps, most of the northwest regions of the study area are more likely to flood because of low land areas, areas with a lower gradient slope, linear and concave shape curvature, high drainage density with high rainfall, more “water bodies,” “crops land,” and “built areas,” abundance on sea and surface water, and Quaternary types of soil feature and so on. The very high flood susceptibility class accounts for 18.2% of the study area, according to the RF-embedding model, whereas the high, moderate, low, and very low susceptibility classes were found at about 20.0%, 24.6%, 24.3%, and 12.9%, respectively. Conclusion: In comparison with other commonly used applied approaches, this research presents a novel modeling approach for flood susceptibility that integrates machine learning and geospatial data. It has been found to be stronger and more efficient, highly accurate, has good prediction performance, and is less biased. Overall, our research into machine learning-based solutions points in a positive path technologically and can serve as a reference manual for future research and applications for academic specialists and decision-makers.

Flood susceptibility modelling of the Teesta River Basin through the AHP-MCDA process using GIS and remote sensing

Flood susceptibility modelling of the Teesta River Basin through the AHP-MCDA process using GIS and remote sensing

Flood susceptibility and flood frequency modeling for lower Kosi Basin, India using AHP and Sentinel-1 SAR data in geospatial environment

Flood susceptibility and flood frequency modeling for lower Kosi Basin, India using AHP and Sentinel-1 SAR data in geospatial environment

Flood susceptibility modeling by integrating tree‐based regression with metaheuristic algorithm, BWO

AbstractFloods are becoming more widely acknowledged as a common occurrence of nature's dangers on a global scale. Although forecasting models primarily focus on timely warnings, models aimed at evaluating dangerous zones can play a vital role in shaping policies for adaptation, mitigation, and reducing the risk of disasters. Using machine learning techniques including hybrid black widow optimization (BWO) with XGBoost, LGBoost, and AdaBoost. We generate a flood susceptibility map for considered region of lower mahanadi basin (LMB). This study examines the effectiveness of these machine learning models in assessing and mapping flood susceptibility, while also providing suggestions for future research in this area. Flood susceptibility model was developed using 13 variables: Altitude, Aspect, Curvature, Distance from river, Drainage Density, Stream Power Index (SPI), Sediment Transport Index (STI), Rainfall intensity, Land Use Land Cover (LULC), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Terrain Roughness Index (TRI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and slope. Additionally, flood inventory data were incorporated into the model. Dataset was divided into a 70% portion for training model and a 30% portion for validating model. To assess the performance of the model, several evaluation metrics were employed, including receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and other performance indices. Evaluation of flood susceptibility mapping, using ROC curve method in combination with flood density yielded strong and reliable results for various models. BWO‐XGBoost achieved a score of 0.889, BWO‐LGBoost achieved a score of 0.937, and BWO‐ADABoost achieved a score of 0.904. These scores indicate effectiveness of these models in accurately predicting flood susceptibility in the study area. A comparison was made with commonly used methods in flood susceptibility assessment to evaluate the efficiency of proposed models. It was found that having a first‐class and enlightening database is crucial for accurately classifying flood types in flood susceptibility mapping. This aspect greatly contributes to improving the overall performance of the model. Among the evaluated methods, the hybrid model BWO‐LGBoost demonstrated better performance compared with others, indicating its effectiveness in accurately predicting flood susceptibility.

Enhancing Flood Susceptibility Modeling: a Hybrid Deep Neural Network with Statistical Learning Algorithms for Predicting Flood Prone Areas

Enhancing Flood Susceptibility Modeling: a Hybrid Deep Neural Network with Statistical Learning Algorithms for Predicting Flood Prone Areas

Solving the spatial extrapolation problem in flood susceptibility using hybrid machine learning, remote sensing, and GIS.

Floods are arguably the most impactful of natural hazards. The increasing magnitude of their effects on the environment, human life, and economic activities calls for improved management of water resources. Flood susceptibility modeling has been used around the world to reduce the damage caused by flooding, although the extrapolation problem still presents a significant challenge. This study develops a machine learning (ML) model utilizing deep neural network (DNN) and optimization algorithms, namely earthworm optimization algorithm (EOA), wildebeest herd optimization (WHO), biogeography-based optimization (BBO), satin bowerbird optimizer (SBO), grasshopper optimization algorithm (GOA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO), to solve the extrapolation problem in the construction of flood susceptibility models. Quang Nam Province was chosen as a case study as it is subject to the significant impact of intense flooding, and Nghe An Province was selected as the region for extrapolation of the flood susceptibility model. Root mean square error (RMSE), receiver operating characteristic (ROC), the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and accuracy (ACC) were applied to assess and compare the fit of each of the models. The results indicated that the models in this study are a good fit in establishing flood susceptibility maps, all with AUC > 0.9. The deep neural network (DNN)-BBO model enjoyed the best results (AUC = 0.99), followed by DNN-WHO (AUC = 0.99), DNN-SBO (AUC = 0.98), DNN-EOA (AUC = 0.96), DNN-GOA (AUC = 0.95), and finally, DNN-PSO (AUC = 0.92). In addition, the models successfully solved the extrapolation problem. These new models can modify their behavior to evaluate flood susceptibility in different regions of the world. The models in this study distribute a first point of reference for debate on the solution to the extrapolation problem, which can support urban planners and other decision-makers in other coastal regions in Vietnam and other countries.

Uncertainty Reduction in Flood Susceptibility Mapping Using Random Forest and eXtreme Gradient Boosting Algorithms in Two Tropical Desert Cities, Shibam and Marib, Yemen

Flooding is a natural disaster that coexists with human beings and causes severe loss of life and property worldwide. Although numerous studies for flood susceptibility modelling have been introduced, a notable gap has been the overlooked or reduced consideration of the uncertainty in the accuracy of the produced maps. Challenges such as limited data, uncertainty due to confidence bounds, and the overfitting problem are critical areas for improving accurate models. We focus on the uncertainty in susceptibility mapping, mainly when there is a significant variation in the predictive relevance of the predictor factors. It is also noted that the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve may not accurately depict the sensitivity of the resulting susceptibility map to overfitting. Therefore, reducing the overfitting problem was targeted to increase accuracy and improve processing time in flood prediction. This study created a spatial repository to test the models, containing data from historical flooding and twelve topographic and geo-environmental flood conditioning variables. Then, we applied random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithms to map flood susceptibility, incorporating a variable drop-off in the empirical loop function. The results showed that the drop-off loop function was a crucial method to resolve the model uncertainty associated with the conditioning factors of the susceptibility modelling and methods. The results showed that approximately 8.42% to 9.89% of Marib City and 9.93% to 15.69% of Shibam City areas were highly vulnerable to floods. Furthermore, this study significantly contributes to worldwide endeavors focused on reducing the hazards linked to natural disasters. The approaches used in this study can offer valuable insights and strategies for reducing natural disaster risks, particularly in Yemen.

Flood susceptibility assessment using machine learning approach in the Mohana-Khutiya River of Nepal

Nepal, known for its challenging topography and fragile geology is confronted with the constant threat of floods leading to substantial socio-economic losses annually. However, the country's efforts in planning and managing flood risks remain insufficient, especially in the vulnerable Mohana-Khutiya River. Therefore, this study focused on the Mohana-Khutiya River and utilizes the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to comprehensively map flood susceptibility and fill crucial gaps in flood risk assessments. This study employed a combination of 10 geospatial environmental layers and field-based past flood inventory to implement the MaxEnt machine learning model for flood susceptibility modeling. The available past flood data were divided into two sets, with 75% allocated for model construction and the remaining 25% for model validation. This study demonstrated that the proximity of the river had a significant impact (33.1%) on the occurrence of the flood. Surprisingly, the amount of annual precipitation throughout the year exhibited no detectable contribution to the flood event in the study site. About 4.9% area came under the high flood susceptible zone followed by 12.75 % in the moderate zone and 82.34% in the low-risk zone. The model exhibited excellent performance with an Area Under Curve (AUC) value of 0.935 and a low standard deviation of 0.018, indicating accurate predictions and consistent precision. These results highlight the model's reliability and its significance for developing disaster management policy by local government in the study site. Future research should refine the MaxEnt model by including more variables, validating against observed flood events, and exploring integration with other flood modeling approaches.

Flash Flood Susceptibility Modelling Using Soft Computing-Based Approaches: From Bibliometric to Meta-Data Analysis and Future Research Directions

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in flood susceptibility modeling. In this study, we conducted a bibliometric analysis followed by a meta-data analysis to capture the nature and evolution of literature, intellectual structure networks, emerging themes, and knowledge gaps in flood susceptibility modeling. Relevant publications were retrieved from the Web of Science database to identify the leading authors, influential journals, and trending articles. The results of the meta-data analysis indicated that hybrid models were the most frequently used prediction models. Results of bibliometric analysis show that GIS, machine learning, statistical models, and the analytical hierarchy process were the central focuses of this research area. The analysis also revealed that slope, elevation, and distance from the river are the most commonly used factors in flood susceptibility modeling. The present study discussed the importance of the resolution of input data, the size and representation of the training sample, other lessons learned, and future research directions in this field.

Enhancing precision flood mapping: Pahang's vulnerability unveiled.

Malaysia, particularly Pahang, experiences devastating floods annually, causing significant damage. The objective of the research was to create a flood susceptibility map for the designated area by employing an Ensemble Machine Learning (EML) algorithm based on geographic information system (GIS). By analyzing nine key factors from a geospatial database, flood susceptibility map was created with the ArcGIS software (ESRI ArcGIS Pro v3.0.1 x64). The Random Forest (RF) model was employed in this study to categorize the study area into distinct flood susceptibility classes. The Feature selection (FS) method was used to ranking the flood influencing factors. To validate the flood susceptibility models, standard statistical measures and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) were employed. The FS ranking demonstrated that the primary attributes to flooding in the study region are rainfall and elevation, with slope, geology, curvature, flow accumulation, flow direction, distance from the river, and land use/land cover (LULC) patterns ranking subsequently. The categories of 'very high' and 'high' class collectively made up 37.1% and 26.3% of the total area, respectively. The flood vulnerability assessment of Pahang found that the Eastern, Southern, and central regions were at high risk of flooding due to intense precipitation, low-lying topography with steep inclines, proximity to the shoreline and rivers, and abundant flooded vegetation, crops, urban areas, bare ground, and rangeland. Conversely, areas with dense tree canopies or forests were less susceptible to flooding in this research area. The ROC analysis demonstrated strong performance on the validation datasets, with an AUC value of >0.73 and accuracy scores exceeding 0.71. Research on flood susceptibility mapping can enhance risk reduction strategies and improve flood management in vulnerable areas. Technological advancements and expertise provide opportunities for more sophisticated methods, leading to better prepared and resilient communities.

Modelling on assessment of flood risk susceptibility at the Jia Bharali River basin in Eastern Himalayas by integrating multicollinearity tests and geospatial techniques

AbstractClimate change and anthropogenic factors have exacerbated flood risks in many regions across the globe, including the Himalayan foothill region in India. The Jia Bharali River basin, situated in this vulnerable area, frequently experiences high-magnitude floods, causing significant damage to the environment and local communities. Developing accurate and reliable flood susceptibility models is crucial for effective flood prevention, management, and adaptation strategies. In this study, we aimed to generate a comprehensive flood susceptibility zone model for the Jia Bharali catchment by integrating statistical methods with expert knowledge-based mathematical models. We applied four distinct models, including the Frequency Ratio model, Fuzzy Logic (FL) model, Multi-criteria Decision Making based Analytical Hierarchy Process model, and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process model, to evaluate the flood susceptibility of the basin. The results revealed that approximately one-third of the Jia Bharali basin area fell within moderate to very high flood-prone zones. In contrast, over 50% of the area was classified as low to very low flood-prone zones. The applied models demonstrated strong performance, with ROC-AUC scores exceeding 70% and MAE, MSE, and RMSE scores below 30%. FL and AHP were recommended for application among the models in areas with similar physiographic characteristics due to their exceptional performance and the training datasets. This study offers crucial insights for policymakers, regional administrative authorities, environmentalists, and engineers working in the Himalayan foothill region. By providing a robust flood susceptibility model, the research enhances flood prevention efforts and management, thereby serving as a vital climate change adaptation strategy for the Jia Bharali River basin and similar regions. The findings also have significant implications for disaster risk reduction and sustainable development in vulnerable areas, contributing to the global efforts towards achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.

An Inverse-Occurrence Sampling Approach for Urban Flood Susceptibility Mapping

Data-driven flood susceptibility modeling is an efficient way to map the spatial distribution of flood likelihood. The quality of the flood susceptibility model relies on the learning technique and the data used for learning. The performance of learning techniques has been extensively examined. However, to date, the impact of data sampling strategies has received limited attention. Random sampling is widely favored because of its ease of use. It treats flood-related data as tabular and excludes their spatial dimensions. Flood occurrence is typically uneven over space. Therefore, non-flood sampling should not be completely random. To represent the impact of the spatial dimension, this study proposed a new sampling approach based on spatial dependence, called inverse-occurrence sampling. It selects more non-flood data in low-risk areas than in high-risk areas. The new sampling approach was compared with random and stratified sampling, using six machine learning techniques in two urban areas in Guangzhou, China, with distinct flood mechanisms, that is, Tianhe (flood density 1.5/km2, clustered distribution, average slope 9.02°, downtown district) and Panyu (flood density 0.15/km2, random distribution, average slope 4.55°, suburban district). Learning techniques include support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), artificial neural networks (ANNs), convolutional neural networks (CNNs), CNN-SVM, and CNN-RF. The main findings of this study were as follows: (1) Sampling approaches had a greater impact on model performance than learning techniques in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The AUC variations caused by learning techniques ranged from 0.04 to 0.09. Meanwhile, the AUC variations caused by sampling approaches were between 0.15 and 0.22, all larger than 0.1. (2) The new sampling approach outperformed that of the other two sampling approaches for high average AUC values and small AUC variations. The outperformance is robust in regard to multiple learning techniques and different flooding mechanisms. AUCs in the inverse group had a narrower range (0.14–0.18 in Tianhe and 0.35–0.39 in Panyu) than in the random group (0.24–0.28 in Tianhe and 0.43–0.53 in Panyu) and the stratified group (0.23–0.30 in Tianhe and 0.42–0.48 in Panyu). (3) The most accurate learning technique for AUC was CNN-RF, followed by SVM, CNN-SVM, RF, CNN, and ANN. (4) ANN- and CNN-based models tended to produce polarized patterns in flood susceptibility maps, contradicting the ascending order of flood density with increasing susceptibility levels. Flood density outliers tended to appear in the models derived using RF and CNN-RF. Finally, the newly proposed sampling approach is suggested to be applied to flood susceptibility mapping to reflect the impact of spatial dependence.

Flood susceptibility modeling using geo-morphometric ranking approach in Jhelum River basin, Pakistan

This study is modeling flood susceptibility in Jhelum River Basin by employing Geo-Morphometric ranking approach. The study area is located in the Monsoon region and exposed to heavy rainfall events. Every year monsoon rainfall and melting of snow and glaciers together generate flash floods in the upper catchment and then riverine flood in the low-lying areas. Watershed modeling approach is used to delineate the Jhelum watershed and its sub-watershed. Advance Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) is utilized as input data in ArcMap software environment. Then Geo-Morphometric ranking model is applied to rank the susceptibility of each sub-watershed to flood. The analysis showed that geo-morphometric characteristics vary from basin to basin. There are 44 sub-basins which cover area less than 1000 ​km2. The area of sub-basins ranges from 47.68 ​km2 to 7667.77 ​km2. Based on our results, area of sub-basin directly impacts flood susceptibility. Geo-morphometric parameters such as gradient, relief and geology of basin such as type of bed rock govern the drainage pattern. The results of the study can assist line agencies and concerned government departments to design location specific flood risk reduction strategy.

A comparative evaluation of GIS based flood susceptibility models: a case of Kopai river basin, Eastern India

A comparative evaluation of GIS based flood susceptibility models: a case of Kopai river basin, Eastern India