Power Plant Fleet Research Articles

Implications of the Global Race to Net-Zero by 2050 for the Strategic Fleet of Coal-Fired Power Plants in SADC

This paper discusses the coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), in the context of the net-zero by 2050 initiative. It describes recent global climate change responses impacting the operation of CFPPs, and the medium-to-long term prospects for coal power. The paper then discusses the motivators and strategies for sustaining the operations of CFPPs in SADC, and why the international community has to let countries in the region and other small developing nations, transition to renewable energies at a more measured pace. It also offers actionable insights on sustainable financing options for upgrading the region’s CFPPs and just energy transitions. Following a balanced assessment of the facts and broad issues discussed herein including the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 7, 10, 13, and 17; the paper concludes that most of the CFPPs in SADC are likely to remain operational way beyond the phase out deadlines despite lacking emissions abatement technologies. The pressing and burgeoning need for electricity and the huge coal reserves in the region are the determinants, rather than international norms or political correctness. However, no development institution or major country will finance any new CFPP projects in SADC, but renewable energy projects instead. Thus, national energy policymakers and power utilities in the region are recommended to revise the current energy policies to include renewable energy expansion and obliterate any mentions of proposed or planned CFPPs. SADC governments need to engage in public dissemination campaigns about the impending energy transition implications for all citizens and map out pragmatic cushioning strategies. Concurrently, they need to support innovations and entrepreneurship in renewable energies and work on improving national creditworthiness scores, to attract climate finance.

Reform of the European electricity market: Should we prefer a price based on a weighted average of marginal costs with cross-subsidies?

On the wholesale electricity market, the equilibrium price is set each hour on the basis of the marginal cost of the last power plant called, which is a gas-fired power plant a large part of the time in Europe. The surge in gas prices since the end of 2021 therefore largely explains the rise in the price of electricity. This paper analyses the reform projects proposed within the European Union to curb this surge in wholesale prices. It proposes then to reform the system by opting for pricing based on the weighted average hourly marginal costs, with financial compensation for power plants whose marginal cost is higher than this average. The quantitative study is conducted over the period January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2022 using ENTSOE hourly data. By implementing a compensation framework founded on average marginal costs, the market price experiences a significant decline, resulting in typically negative residual profits. Consequently, the fixed costs associated with the power plant fleet necessitate funding through the capacity market. This approach would enable French electricity consumers to align their payments with the structure of the national electricity fleet, specifically reflecting the average costs of power stations characterized by substantial fixed costs, such as nuclear facilities. The adoption of this proposed system is poised to expedite the energy transition toward a low-carbon economy.

Optimal self-unit commitment with shared asset ownership under realistic taxation in the current decarbonization framework

Energy, greenhouse gas emissions, or water taxes, are present in many power systems as available instruments to implement energy, environmental or climate policies. The goal of these taxes is to change producers’ optimal behavior and hence achieve a cleaner operation. However, these changes in operation are not straightforward to simulate when producers are price makers, or when assets are owned jointly by different agents. State-of-the-art models are unable to consider differentiated income taxes per technology or geographical region, in the case of price makers. In this paper, we present a novel formulation that models the individual market income of each unit using the binary-expansion technique to address the case of a price-maker agent. Unlike existing state-of-the-art formulations, our approach successfully accounts for differentiated income taxes per technology or geographical region and accurate market revenues of shared generators. The proposed model enables evaluating the rational behavior of a generation company confronting a complex yet realistic decision problem, under different types of taxes related to decarbonization or resource conservation policies. The case study incorporates the impact of the installation of carbon sequestration and storage equipment in a fleet of gas-fired power plants, yielding satisfactory numerical results.

Functionalization of All-Oxide Ceramic Matrix Composites Elements Using Three-Dimensional Braiding and Pressure Slip Casting for Composite Processing: Approaches to Reduce the Filter Effect of Dense Reinforcement Textiles

Abstract A key element for the transition to sustainable energy lies in the transformation of the power plant fleet, which is dominated by fossil fuels, toward sustainable energy production from renewable energy sources. An increase in efficiency and reduction of exhaust gas emissions, especially the minimization of CO2 emissions, is possible through the use of new turbine materials, which can withstand higher temperature levels. Oxide ceramics are well known for their high stability in aggressive environments, low density, high melting point, high stiffness, and great creep resistance, but their brittleness has strongly limited their number of applications. Therefore, the implementation of fiber reinforcement using the three-dimensional (3D) braiding process shows great potential to increase the damage tolerance of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) and consequently the performance of thermal machines significantly. Currently, the impregnation of 3D braids for the reinforcement of ceramic composites poses a challenge due to the high packing density of the textiles. In order to enable a homogeneous impregnation of the fiber structures using highly viscous ceramic slurries, the CMC research group at RWTH Aachen University's Institute of Textile Technology (ITA) is investigating the combination of 3D braiding and pressure slip casting for an economical production of all-oxide CMCs. To increase the impregnation quality of dense textiles, this paper describes approaches to reduce the filter effect of braids. The results of an initial investigation into the functionalization of two-dimensional braided reinforcement structures by using support structures and flow aids are described. The effectiveness of the impregnation ability is assessed by evaluating the residual porosity of generated green compacts via μCT analysis.

Application of a Multi-Stage Testing and Evaluation Approach for a Safety-Related Digital Upgrade at a Nuclear Power Plant

There is an imminent need for existing United States nuclear power plants to reduce their operating and maintenance costs to remain economically viable. Digital technology provides significant opportunity for the existing nuclear power plant fleet to transform that way in which work is accomplished to reduce costs and allow the fleet to remain economically competitive. However, a careful understanding of the human-technology integration is needed to ensure the continued safe and reliable operation of these existing plants with new digital capabilities. This work presents interim findings in applying human factors engineering to a safety-significant digital upgrade for a United States nuclear power plant, following the new Alternative Review Process in the recently revised Digital Instrumentation and Control Interim Staff Guidance Licensing Process, Revision 2. The interim results described in this work provides an industry perspective, based on ongoing work, to support recent work published from Vazquez, Green, and Desaulniers (2022).

Cyber hardening of Nuclear Power Plants with real-time nuclear reactor operation, 1. Preliminary operational testing

Maintaining and extending the lifetime of the domestic Nuclear Power Plant fleet is predicated on digitalization. However, digitalization also gives rise to increasing vulnerabilities. This paper is the first in a body of novel research at the Idaho Falls Center for Higher Education focusing on the cyber hardening of currently operating and aging Nuclear Power Plants that uses the Western Services Corporation Generic Pressurized Water Reactor real-time operational platform. The Western Services Corporation platform was used here natively to collect data during atypical plant events that could be initiated by cyberattacks. The goals of this first phase of work is to identify data ‘fingerprints’ unique to each of the initiating events, determine when or if the reactor trips, and suggest operator actions that could mitigate the cyberattack and possibly avoid a trip and maintain operations. First, a cyber-informed Preliminary Hazards Analysis was conducted to determine plant systems most vulnerable to a cyberattack. Then, the associated malfunction as an analogue to a potential cyberattack on the selected system was executed during operation of the reactor. Relevant data was collected during these events until the reactor tripped. The data was then processed to determine if a fingerprint could be crafted, and mitigating operator actions were formulated. Finally, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept for simulating cyberattacks on the Western Services Corporation platform in real-time during reactor operation. This development will open possibilities for ‘Red Team/Blue Team’ exercises for cyber hardening of the domestic Nuclear Power Plant fleet.

Implementation of in-rod axially heterogeneous thorium-uranium fuel in a typical PWR

Given the potential of the thorium fuel cycle and the predominance of PWRs in today’s commercial fleet of nuclear power plants, further investigations on the introduction of thorium-based fuel in open-cycle reactors such as PWRs are warranted. The benefits of microheterogeneous thoria-urania fuel (e.g. increased burnup / fuel cycle length, reduced radiotoxicity and increased stability of spent fuel, proliferation advantages due, feasibility of converting UO2-based fuel manufacturing plants to ThO2-UO2), are diminished by fuel manufacturing costs, the need to denature thorium sections of the fuel, thermo-hydraulic design requirements, higher fission gas release and cladding temperature gradients.This paper presents results of the neutronic performance of homogeneous and multiple heterogeneous fuel pin cell designs and explores the fundamental reasons and reaction balances between the different fuel models. The work utilises fuel models with variations in the length and composition of thorium and uranium sections. We compare the various urania-thoria fuel models with a reference PWR (North-Anna 1) with similar fissile content. We postulate a number of fuel design criteria, to appraise fuel models in trade-off studies, including improved burnup and cycle length, limitations on fuel enrichment grade and excess reactivity during burnup (typically at beginning of cycle), safety requirements such as limitations on total burnup, power peaking and feedback mechanisms. In addition, criteria are set for proliferation resistance and radiotoxicity.Verification studies were performed on fuel with homogeneous and axially heterogeneous fuel cell pins, followed by initial assembly and full-core analyses, to affirm confidence in the models employed. Our results confirm significant conversion of thorium to 233U, resulting in an improved burnup and fuel cycle length. Shut down margins and neutron economy are improved by significantly reducing beginning of cycle excess reactivity and hence reducing the need for burnable and soluble neutron absorbers. The conversion of thorium to 233U then leads to an increase in reactivity later in the cycle. To address proliferation concerns, fuel models with denatured thorium sections are introduced.We conclude that among the well-performing fuel models, fuel comprising heterogeneous pins repeating 3 cm thorium and 1 cm uranium sections, with the uranium region enriched to 20 at% 235U, and the thorium region denatured to a specific degree, performed best in terms of the fuel criteria considered. The promising results for the fuel pin cell models were confirmed with initial assembly and full core models: Burnup improvement rendered by the 3Th1U fuel models is 25.6% / 22.3% / 17.9% for the pin cell / assembly / full core models respectively, in spite of employing denaturing of thorium sections, while also fulfilling the other stated fuel criteria.

A Passive System Technical Specification for CANDU 6 Generation II Reactor

The Fukushima accident led to concerns about enhancement of safety for the new design nuclear plants and also for the existing fleet of nuclear power plants (NPPs) by introducing passive safety systems. An important objective is to increase the grace time for a plant operator to establish an alternate heat sink in the case of a station blackout (SBO) accident. Efforts made by RATEN (https://www.raten.ro/?lang=en) in the frame of H2020 PIACE projects were to implement a passive safety system in the CANadian Deuterium Uranium 6 (CANDU 6) project. In this project, RATEN was in charge of the engineering design and computational modeling aspects, required to integrate a passive safety system in the existing CANDU 6 project. In order to design a passive safety system, a 3-day SBO accident was credited to occur at the Cernavoda Unit 2 NPP, a CANDU 6–type reactor. An isolation condenser (IC) system capable of transporting the total energy produced in the reactor core due to decay heat was designed and modeled. The engineering design solutions were made by RATEN CITON (http://www.citon.ro/english_index.html), and the thermal-hydraulic analysis was performed by RATEN ICN (https://nuclear.ro/en/) using the RELAP5 computer code (https://relap53d.inl.gov/SitePages/Home.aspx) to confirm natural circulation both in the secondary and the primary circuits during the SBO accident and heat transfer capability of the IC with and without noncondensable gases. The passive safety system design consists of four (4 × 33%) closed loop independent circuits, one for each steam generator. Each loop has an IC design to transport 0.66% of nominal thermal power of the reactor. In order to avoid a rapid transient during reactor cooldown, the system is endowed with four noncondensable gas tanks (one for each IC), connected to the outlet header of each IC, provided for reducing the IC heat flux simultaneously with reactor core residual heat decrease. The design concept was adapted to the CANDU 6 reactor power and the specific layout of the Cernavoda site, starting from the Advanced Lead-cooled Fast Reactor European Demonstrator (ALFRED) patent (the demonstrator of lead fast reactor technology) passive system, to increase the plant operator grace time from 23 h (current situation) to more than 72 h.

A data-driven framework for quantifying consumption-based monthly and hourly marginal emissions factors

The fleet of power plants supplying electricity to a power grid varies diurnally and seasonally, creating large time-dependent differences in the emissions associated with consuming electricity, particularly in grids with high penetrations of renewable electricity generators. In addition, modern grids are incorporating more demand-side interventions that incentivize electricity end users to temporarily modify their electricity consuming behavior in efforts to change the shape and magnitude of electricity consumption over a period of time. Current methods for quantifying the emissions associated with marginal shifts in electricity consumption are not sufficient given the changing dynamics of supply-side generation resources. This study introduces a novel multiple linear regression model that utilizes historical demand, variable renewable generation, and CO2 emissions data to quantify hourly marginal emissions factors for the years of 2019 and 2020. The developed consumption-based CO2 accounting method includes the emissions embedded in net electricity imports in addition to emissions from in-region generators. The proposed framework is applied to the case study of California Independent System Operator (CAISO), revealing a wide range of hourly-level marginal emissions factors (89–503 kgCO2/MWh) during the period of study. The proposed method improves upon the existing literature by proposing a consumption-based method that is well suited for estimating emissions avoided through demand-side changes in load, particularly in electric grids, like CAISO, with high renewable energy penetrations.

Guiding Transformation: The Role of a Design Philosophy

Unlike renewables such as wind and photovoltaics, nuclear power is a carbon-free source of energy that offers reliable, dispatchable baseload energy. This unique characteristic makes nuclear energy an important component of the U.S. mix of carbon-free energy, and thus, a major contributor to achieving the goals laid out in the Paris Agreement. However, the current fleet of nuclear power plants are being outpriced by other energy sources, such as natural gas. One contributor to the high cost of nuclear is the outdated concept of operations. The current fleet of nuclear reactors employs the same concept of operations they started with over half a century ago. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) Human Factors Engineering (HFE) team under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program is engaged in helping the nuclear fleet modernize their control rooms. The goal is to transform nuclear power plant operators’ perceptions to improve efficient and safe plant operation. A major component to successfully transforming an aged control room with advanced technology is to use a design philosophy that guides the modernization effort. This paper discusses design philosophy and the role it plays. Also discussed is the initial approach to design philosophy and adherence to safety and regulatory requirements. Last, a brief discussion of how INL’s HFE team plans to implement a design philosophy that can be used industry wide.

Life cycle assessment shows that retrofitting coal-fired power plants with fuel cells will substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Life cycle assessment shows that retrofitting coal-fired power plants with fuel cells will substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Retrofittable Solutions Capability for Gas Turbine Compressors

The increasing introduction of renewable energy capacity has changed the perspective on the operation of conventional power plants, introducing the necessity of reaching extreme off-design conditions. There is a strong interest in the development and optimization of technologies that can be retrofitted to an existing power plant to enhance flexibility as well as increase performance and lower emissions. Under the framework of the European project TURBO-REFLEX, a typical F-class gas turbine compressor designed and manufactured by Ansaldo Energia has been studied. Numerical analyses were performed using the TRAF code, which is a state-of-the-art 3D CFD RANS/URANS flow solver. In order to assess the feasibility of lower minimum environmental load operation, by utilizing a reduction in the compressor outlet mass-flow rate, with a safe stability margin, two different solutions have been analyzed: blow-off extractions and extra-closure of Variable Inlet Guide Vanes. The numerical steady-state results are compared and discussed in relation to an experimental campaign, which was performed by Ansaldo Energia. The purpose is to identify the feasibility of the technologies and implementation opportunity in the existing thermal power plant fleet.

An Extended MILP Model for Planning CCS Retrofit in Power Plant Fleets

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an important technology that can contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. It involves the capture of CO2 from point sources such as power plants and subsequent storage in secure geological reservoirs. However, capture incurs parasitic power loss; thus, compensatory power from clean sources such as renewables will be needed to make up for the power losses. The conventional capture process is designed for steady-state operation, but flexible capture is possible to offset the intermittency of renewable energy. Systematic planning for robust CCS systems is needed to incorporate flexible mechanisms in CO2 capture. In this study, a mixed integer linear program (MILP) is developed to robust CCS retrofit subject to operational adjustments for multiple periods or scenarios. Retrofit decisions include options for flexible and non-flexible capture, accounting for trade-offs between the two options. Operational adjustments pertain to decisions to switch off the flexible capture plants to compensate for depressed renewable energy supply. A case study is presented to demonstrate the optimization model. From the case study, flexible mechanism can provide a more robust planning, where low availabilities of renewable energy can contribute up to 18% of the power demand.

Transformation of the electricity sector with thermal storage power plants and PV – A first conceptual approach

The paper presents a model algorithm for a global transformation of conventional thermal power plants to thermal storage power plants (TSPP). TSPP are thermal power stations that provide highly flexible and at the same time renewable power. The idea behind such transformation is to conserve the firm capacity of the existing thermal power plant fleet and at the same time substitute the related fuel demand by solar energy. Taking Germany as a reference case, several ranking criteria were applied to existing power stations in order to identify a priority list for such transformation. In order to relate the available solar energy potential to each power plant of this list, a geographic information system was set up in order to quantify and identify suitable land area for potential PV installations nearby the plants. After briefly recapitulating the potential function and impact of TSPP in the German national power supply system, the paper proposes a method of ranking existing thermal power plants and of identifying the required PV potential for their transformation. The preliminary results show the feasibility of such approach, identify several limitations and provide first ideas for further development.

The cost of production and storage of renewable hydrogen in South Africa and transport to Japan and EU up to 2050 under different scenarios

The decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors globally will require significant volumes of carbon-free hydrogen. An investigation has been performed to determine the cost at which hydrogen can be generated by electrolysis using renewable electricity in South Africa between 2020 and 2050; stored in suitable carriers: liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC), cryogenic liquid hydrogen, and ammonia; then shipped to Japan and EU. Renewable electrolysis hydrogen is produced at lowest cost in South Africa using electricity generated by a hybrid fleet of wind and single-axis tracking PV power plants, using large-scale alkaline electrolyser plants. Hydrogen is converted and stored at lowest cost as LOHC, but delivered to Japan at lowest cost as ammonia. It may be delivered to Japan at or below the Japanese target cost of US $3/kg or €2.50/kg by 2030 (when bulk imports are planned to begin) in one of two ways: firstly by reconverting the ammonia carrier to gaseous hydrogen, provided that concessionary finance allows a maximum weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 3% the for renewable power and electrolyser infrastructure, or secondly as ammonia for direct use (without reconversion to gaseous hydrogen), provided concessionary finance allows a maximum WACC of 6%. In any event, the landed target price may be met for gaseous hydrogen by 2040 (when hydrogen imports must be carbon-free) at a WACC of up to 6%.

Seismic risk assessment for the CEUS nuclear power plant fleet based on the NGA-East ground motion model

Knowledge of seismic hazard at engineered facilities evolves with the growth in related technical fields. This presents challenges to stability and decision-making concerning safety that require effective assessment tools. Updated mean hazard estimates were developed at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites in Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) using the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-East ground motion model (GMM) and the latest available site amplification data. These estimates indicated that seismic hazard increases at several CEUS NPP sites, especially for spectral frequencies below 5 Hz. To assess the safety implications, updated mean seismic core damage frequency (SCDF) estimates were developed for the CEUS NPP fleet using the updated mean hazard estimates and updated plant-level fragilities (PLFs). The PLFs were developed from plant-specific information compiled by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and recent seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) completed by some NPPs. The SCDF quantification followed a method defined by the USNRC to combine risk contributions from different spectral frequencies. While not intended to provide a precise quantification of risk, such as that provided by a full SPRA, when the results are compared against other estimates using the same approach, this process provides valuable insight into the overall change in risk as the understanding of hazard changes. The assessment indicated no significant change in estimated risk for the majority of the CEUS fleet compared to the 2010 USNRC estimates—about 90% of the fleet risk distribution was lower, equal, or slightly higher. A few NPPs had SCDF estimates significantly larger than the 2010 estimates. The SCDF increases at these few NPPs have larger contributions from updated PLFs than updated hazard estimates. The majority of these NPPs have recently completed detailed SPRAs and have tools to develop more accurate estimates of the updated risk than can be achieved in this fleet-level study.

Influence of Composition of Power Plant Fleets and Ownership of Transmission and Distribution Networks to Incumbent Company’s Business Success in Some Former Socialist EU Countries

By joining the EU, companies from eastern countries, which until then had largely operated in regulated circumstances, had to adapt to the open market. Liberalization and deregulation were imposed on them as new mantras, in contrast to ensuring the supply at all costs and addressing social issues. How these companies flourished in new circumstances is a legitimate topic for managerial research. This article researches the impact of the "hard assets" composition, that those companies operated, on their expected business success after a multi-year adjustment period. Positivistic research philosophy, "case study", and the deduction approach are used. The data were collected mainly from secondary sources. 3 research goals were selected with 3 relevant research questions. An attempt was made to respond to them on the example of 7 Central European countries and 11 companies, direct successors of original incumbents. The property is grouped into 3 groups: classical power plants (nuclear, hydro, coal), renewable power plants (wind, solar, bio mass) and lines (transmission and distribution). Criteria for success are selected according to usual praxis, but also adjusted to accessible data, predominantly from the company's annual financial statements. Contrary to the developed intuition, and based on cases of companies analyzed, there was no significant correlation between the selected criteria of success and the observed asset classes, serving as independent variables. The biggest problem in the research was access to data. This paper is an extraction from an MBA dissertation.

Finding synergy between renewables and coal: Flexible power and hydrogen production from advanced IGCC plants with integrated CO2 capture

Variable renewable energy (VRE) has seen rapid growth in recent years. However, VRE deployment requires a fleet of dispatchable power plants to supply electricity during periods with limited wind and sunlight. These plants will operate at reduced utilization rates that pose serious economic challenges. To address this challenge, this paper presents the techno-economic assessment of flexible power and hydrogen production from integrated gasification combined cycles (IGCC) employing the gas switching combustion (GSC) technology for CO2 capture and membrane assisted water gas shift (MAWGS) reactors for hydrogen production. Three GSC-MAWGS-IGCC plants are evaluated based on different gasification technologies: Shell, High Temperature Winkler, and GE. These advanced plants are compared to two benchmark IGCC plants, one without and one with CO2 capture. All plants utilize state-of-the-art H-class gas turbines and hot gas clean-up for maximum efficiency. Under baseload operation, the GSC plants returned CO2 avoidance costs in the range of 24.9–36.9 €/ton compared to 44.3 €/ton for the benchmark. However, the major advantage of these plants is evident in the more realistic mid-load scenario. Due to the ability to keep operating and sell hydrogen to the market during times of abundant wind and sun, the best GSC plants offer a 6–11%-point higher annual rate of return than the benchmark plant with CO2 capture. This large economic advantage shows that the flexible GSC plants are a promising option for balancing VRE, provided a market for the generated clean hydrogen exists.

ACT on RE+FLEX: Accelerating Coal Transition Through Repurposing Coal Plants Into Renewable and Flexibility Centers

Decarbonizing the power sector forms a critical part of the global combat against climate change. This requires inter alia retirement of the global coal power plant fleet of 2,100 GW. Although a significant part of this capacity is aging, there are complex issues that need to be addressed including the economic viability of existing coal plants in some countries relative to renewable projects and barriers to exit of coal. We have used detailed power plant level operational cost data for ten developing countries with significant share of coal and compared these with levelized cost of renewables, to demonstrate that competitiveness of coal varies significantly across different geographies. Countries like India where renewable projects have been highly competitive and there is an aging fleet of coal plants many of which are far away from mines, are already highly uncompetitive. On the other hand, countries like South Africa that have relatively inexpensive coal plants, but the average cost of renewable projects have not yet dropped sufficiently (as of 2020), will require special efforts to phase out coal completely beyond plants that have reached, or gone well past their technical life. Accelerated retirement of coal would require a new business model that allows repurposing some of these sites for alternative usage including generation from renewables, conversion of the incumbent generator into a synchronous condenser coupled with a fly wheel to provide reactive power and inertia; and installation of energy storage systems. As a repurposed coal plant for energy related activities can retain part of the workforce, it can also address some of the complex social issues. In order to develop a comprehensive repurposing program at a national level, the process needs to follow a least-cost planning methodology to identify prospective coal plant candidates for repurposing and then undertake a cost-benefit analysis of individual projects. We have demonstrated this methodology using a case study for Morocco.

The U.S. coal sector between shale gas and renewables: Last resort coal exports?

Coal consumption and production have sharply declined in recent years in the U.S., despite political support. Reasons are mostly unfavorable economic conditions for coal, including competition from natural gas and renewables in the power sector, as well as an aging coal-fired power plant fleet. Nevertheless, coal remains a major energy source in the North American energy markets. Supplementing EMF34 energy system analyses, we take a sectoral perspective to analyze coal's future role in this context. The U.S. Energy Information Administration as well as most models in EMF34 depict continuously high shares of coal-fired power generation over the next decades in their current policy scenarios. We contrast their results with coal sector modelling based on bottom-up data and recent market trends. We project considerably lower near-term coal use for power generation in the U.S. This has significant effects on regional coal production. Allowing new export terminals along the U.S. West Coast could ease cuts in U.S. production. Yet, exports are a highly uncertain strategy because the U.S. could be strongly affected by changes in global demand, for example from non-U.S. climate policy.