Fixed-precision Sampling Plan Research Articles

Distribution and fixed-precision sampling plans for diamondback moth (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae), on winter-spring cabbage.

The diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella L.) is the most destructive insect pest on cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata L.). Infestation by this pest usually results in the indiscriminate use of insecticides by farmers due to a lack of sampling plans for this pest. Sampling plans for P. xylostella management decisions on winter-spring cabbage in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa were developed, through population monitoring that comprised weekly counts of immature stages of P. xylostella on 60 plants for 11 wk each during the winter and spring seasons. The mean density-variance relationship was used to describe the distribution of the pest, and number of infested plants was used to develop a fixed-precision sampling plan. All plant growth stages preceding maturation were vulnerable to P. xylostella damage resulting in yield losses. A high aggregation of P. xylostella on cabbage was observed in spring than in winter. The average sample number to estimate P. xylostella density within a 15% standard error of the mean was 35 plants. Furthermore, the estimated plant proportion action threshold (AT) was 51% with density action thresholds of 0.50 and 0.80 for spring and winter, respectively. Fitting P. xylostella cumulative counts in the winter and spring sampling plans resulted in 100% and 45% reduction in insecticide treatments. The similarity of sample size and ATs between both seasons provides evidence that a single sampling plan is practical for all cabbage growing seasons. The similarity of the estimated ATs to those acceptable in established integrated pest management programs indicates reliability.

Sampling Optimization and Crop Interface Effects on Lygus lineolaris Populations in Southeastern USA Cotton.

Simple SummaryTarnished plant bugs (Hemiptera: Miridae) are an important agricultural pest in cotton across the United States. Tarnished plant bugs reduce cotton yields and lower lint and seed quality by feeding on reproductive structures. Effective management of this pest requires timely insecticidal control when populations reach established economic thresholds. Reliable determination of the economic threshold in cotton depends on effective scouting. To evaluate the efficacy of current tarnished plant bug scouting strategies, we surveyed 120 commercial cotton fields across the southeastern USA to quantify (1) variation in tarnished plant bug populations across the production region, (2) evaluate current sampling plans for economic threshold determinations, and (3) examine landscape-scale risk factors associated with tarnished plant bug infestations in cotton. We observed the greatest variability in tarnished plant bug density at the field scale followed by within-field variation, emphasizing the importance of scouting individual fields. Additionally, we determined the sampling size needed for accurate threshold estimates for sweep net (8 sample units of 100 sweeps/sample) and drop cloth sampling (23 sampling units of 1.5 row-m/sample). Furthermore, tarnished plant bugs densities were positively related to the proportion of agriculture and double-crop winter wheat and soybeans and negatively related to contiguous cotton.Tarnished plant bug, Lygus lineolaris (Hemiptera: Miridae), is an economically damaging pest in cotton production systems across the southern United States. We systematically scouted 120 commercial cotton fields across five southeastern states during susceptible growth stages in 2019 and 2020 to investigate sampling optimization and the effect of interface crop and landscape composition on L. lineolaris abundance. Variance component analysis determined field and within-field spatial scales, compared with agricultural district and state, accounted for more variation in L. lineolaris density using sweep net and drop cloth sampling. This result highlights the importance of field-level scouting efforts. Using within-field samples, a fixed-precision sampling plan determined 8 and 23 sampling units were needed to determine L. lineolaris population estimates with 0.25 precision for sweep net (100 sweeps per unit) and drop cloth (1.5 row-m per unit) sampling, respectively. A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was developed to determine local landscape (<0.5 km from field edges) effects on L. lineolaris in cotton. The proportion of agricultural area and double-crop wheat and soybeans were positively associated with L. lineolaris density, and fields with more contiguous cotton areas negatively predicted L. lineolaris populations. These results will improve L. lineolaris monitoring programs and treatment management decisions in southeastern USA cotton.

Spatio-Temporal Distribution and Fixed-Precision Sampling Plan of Scirtothrips dorsalis (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) in Florida Blueberry.

Simple SummaryScirtothrips dorsalis, chilli thrips, is an invasive insect species in Florida and an important foliar pest of blueberry. Sound knowledge of insect distribution within the field is needed to formulate accurate sampling methods. Fourteen blueberry fields were systematically sampled for chilli thrips during the summers of 2017 and 2018. Field counts were modeled in various spatial models and determined chilli thrips had temporally stable aggregated distribution. A fixed-precision sampling plan was developed for summer sampling, requiring seven and three sampling units (sampling unit = 10 young blueberry shoots) to estimate a nominal mean density of 20 chilli thrips with a precision of 25% and 40%, respectively. The sampling plan can be used to improve the timing of control measures and assess the effectiveness of these control measures.Scirtothrips dorsalis Hood is an invasive and foliar pest of Florida blueberry that reduces plant growth by feeding on new leaf growth. A sampling plan is needed to make informed control decisions for S. dorsalis in blueberry. Fourteen blueberry fields in central Florida were surveyed in 2017 and 2018 after summer pruning to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of S. dorsalis and to develop a fixed-precision sampling plan. A sampling unit of ten blueberry shoots (with four to five leaves each) was collected from one blueberry bush at each point along a 40 × 40 m grid. Field counts of S. dorsalis varied largely ranging from zero to 1122 adults and larvae per sampling unit. Scirtothrips dorsalis had aggregated distribution that was consistent within fields and temporally stable between summers, according to Taylor’s power law (TPL) (aggregation parameter, b = 1.57), probability distributions (56 out of 70 sampling occasions fit the negative binomial distribution), Lloyd’s index (b > 1 in 94% occasions), and Spatial Analysis by Distance IndicEs (31% had significant clusters). The newly developed fixed-precision sampling plan required 167, 42, seven, or three sampling units to estimate a nominal mean density of 20 S. dorsalis per sampling unit with a precision of 5%, 10%, 25%, or 40%, respectively. New knowledge on S. dorsalis distribution will aid in evaluating the timing and effectiveness of control measures.

Spatial Patterns and Sequential Sampling Plans for Predators of Aphis glycines (Hemiptera: Aphididae) in Minnesota Soybean

The soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura, is an economically important soybean pest. Many studies have demonstrated that predatory insects are important in suppressing A. glycines population growth. However, to improve the utilization of predators in A. glycines management, sampling plans need to be developed and validated for predators. Aphid predators were sampled in soybean fields near Rosemount, Minnesota, from 2006-2007 and 2013-2015 with sample sizes of 20-80 plants. Sampling plans were developed for Orius insidiosus (Say), Harmonia axyridis (Pallas), and all aphidophagous Coccinellidae species combined. Taylor's power law parameters from the regression of log variance versus log mean suggested aggregated spatial patterns for immature and adult stages combined for O. insidiosus, H. axyridis, and Coccinellidae in soybean fields. Using the parameters from Taylor's power law and Green's method, sequential fixed-precision sampling plans were developed to estimate the density for each predator taxon at desired precision levels of 0.10 and 0.25. To achieve a desired precision of 0.10 and 0.25, the average sample number (ASN) ranged from 398-713 and 64-108 soybean plants, respectively, for all species. Resulting ASNs were relatively large and assumed impractical for most purposes; therefore, the desired precision levels were adjusted to determine the level of precision associated with a more practical ASN. Final analysis indicated an ASN of 38 soybean plants provided precision of 0.32-0.40 for the predators. Development of sampling plans should provide guidance for improved estimation of predator densities for A. glycines pest management programs and for research purposes.

Development of Sequential Sampling Plan for Bemisia tabaci in Paprika Greenhouses

In order to establish B. tabaci control in paprika greenhouses a fixed-precision-level sampling plan was developed. The sampling plan consisted of spatial distribution analysis, a sampling stop line, and decision making. Sampling was conducted simultaneously in two independent greenhouses (GH 1, GH 2). GH 1 and 2 were surveyed every week for 22 consecutive weeks, using 19 sampling locations in GH 1 and 9 sampling locations in GH 2. The plant in both greenhouses were divided into top (180-220 cm from the ground), middle (80-120 cm from the ground) and bottom (30-70 cm from the ground) sections and B. tabaci adults and pupae were observed on three paprika leaves at each position and recorded separately. GH 2 data were used to validate the fixed-precision sampling plan, which was developed using GH 1 data. In this study, spatial distribution analysis was performed using Taylor's power law with the pooled data of the top and bottom position (B. tabaci adults), and the middle and bottom positions (B. tabaci pupae), based on a 1-leaf sampling unit. Decision making was undertaken using the maximum of action threshold in accordance with previously published method, and the value was decided by the price of the plants. Using the results obtained in the greenhouse, simulated validation of the developed sampling plan by RVSP (Resampling Validation for Sampling Plan) indicated a reasonable level of precision.

Dispersion and Sampling of Adult Dermacentor andersoni in Rangeland in Western North America

A fixed precision sampling plan was developed for off-host populations of adult Rocky Mountain wood tick, Dermacentor andersoni (Stiles) based on data collected by dragging at 13 locations in Alberta, Canada; Washington; and Oregon. In total, 222 site-date combinations were sampled. Each site-date combination was considered a sample, and each sample ranged in size from 86 to 250 10 m2 quadrats. Analysis of simulated quadrats ranging in size from 10 to 50 m2 indicated that the most precise sample unit was the 10 m2 quadrat. Samples taken when abundance < 0.04 ticks per 10 m2 were more likely to not depart significantly from statistical randomness than samples taken when abundance was greater. Data were grouped into ten abundance classes and assessed for fit to the Poisson and negative binomial distributions. The Poisson distribution fit only data in abundance classes < 0.02 ticks per 10 m2, while the negative binomial distribution fit data from all abundance classes. A negative binomial distribution with common k = 0.3742 fit data in eight of the 10 abundance classes. Both the Taylor and Iwao mean-variance relationships were fit and used to predict sample sizes for a fixed level of precision. Sample sizes predicted using the Taylor model tended to underestimate actual sample sizes, while sample sizes estimated using the Iwao model tended to overestimate actual sample sizes. Using a negative binomial with common k provided estimates of required sample sizes closest to empirically calculated sample sizes.

Spatial Distribution of Thrips tabaci and Development of a Fixed-Precision Sampling Plan for Greenhouse Cucumber

Spatial Distribution of Thrips tabaci and Development of a Fixed-Precision Sampling Plan for Greenhouse Cucumber

IPM program successful in California greenhouse cut roses

We developed and tested an integrated pest management (IPM) program for the key pests of cut roses, which was based on fixed precision sampling plans, thresholds, biological control, directed sprays of reduced-risk pesticides, and cultural control. This program represented the largest effort to date to implement an IPM program in U.S. floriculture. The biological control of mites was successful at all locations, and pesticide use was generally lower in the IPM greenhouses. Future work will concentrate on reducing scouting time, improving natural-enemy release methods, and developing IPM techniques for secondary pests and powdery mildew.

Sequential Sampling Plans for Western Flower Thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) on Greenhouse Cucumbers

The development of cost-effective and reliable sampling programs for the management of western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), on greenhouse cucumbers is important for getting growers to adopt economic injury levels and economic thresholds. The objectives of this study were to develop two sequential sampling plans. A fixed-precision sequential sampling plan was designed for estimating F. occidentalis adult density at a fixed-precision level on cucumber flowers. Also, a sequential sampling plan for classifying thrips population levels as below or above economic thresholds was developed to assist in decision making for the timing of pesticide applications. Both sequential sampling plans were validated using a resampling simulation technique on nine independent data sets ranging in density from 1.25 to 12.95 adults per flower. With the fixed-precision sampling plan, average means obtained in 100 repeated simulation runs were within the 95% CI of the estimated mean for all data sets. Appropriate levels of precision for the different population densities were recommended based on the simulation results. With sequential sampling for classifying the population levels of thrips in terms of an economic threshold, it has the advantage of requiring smaller sample sizes to determine the population status when the population densities differ greatly from the critical density (i.e., economic threshold). However, this plan needs a great number of samples when population density is close to the critical density. In this case, use of a combination of both sampling plans is recommended.

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A FIXED-PRECISION SEQUENTIAL SAMPLING PLAN FOR ESTIMATING BROOD ADULT DENSITY OF DENDROCTONVS PSEUDOTSUGAE (COLEOPTERA: SCOLYTIDAE)

AbstractThe Douglas-fir beetle, Dendroctonus pseudotsugae Hopkins, attacks Douglas-fir, Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco (Pinaceae), throughout western North America. Periodic outbreaks cause increased mortality of its host. Land managers and forest health specialists often need to determine population trends of this insect. Bark samples were obtained from 326 trees distributed over 21 stands during a 2-year period in late winter to early spring of 1997 and 1998 in the Colorado Front Range. The variance to mean relationship of brood adults was examined using the Taylor power law, and a fixed-precision sampling plan was developed using Green’s method. Stop lines and minimum number of samples required to estimate brood adult density per 0.046 m2 with precision levels of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 were calculated. A resampling simulation conducted with an independent data set indicated that desired precision levels were not met. Theoretical precision levels were adjusted until desired precision levels were achieved. Average number of samples needed to estimate brood adult densities up to 25.1 adults per 0.046 m2 with precision levels of 0.09, 0.2, and 0.3 were 91, 20, and 8, respectively. For densities greater than 25.1 brood adults per 0.046 m2, conservative estimates are obtained with 72, 15, and 6 samples for precision levels of 0.09, 0.2, and 0.3, respectively. An emergence ratio can be obtained by dividing the estimated density of brood adults by twice the number of gallery starts. This system provides the user with an immediate assessment of the population trend of Douglas-fir beetle. The data collected compare favorably with data from other Douglas-fir beetle outbreaks reported in the literature. The use of this plan outside the Colorado Front Range, or by sampling at a different height, should be cautioned until additional data from other locations and sampling heights are examined.

Spatial Distribution of Thrips in Greenhouse Cucumber and Development of a Fixed-Precision Sampling Plan for Estimating Population Density

Dispersion patterns of phytophagous thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) were determined for greenhouse cucumber, Cucumis sativus L., in Cheju-do, Korea, during 1995 and 1996. Thrips populations were sampled using leaf sample, yellow sticky trap and visual estimate concurrently on each sampling date. Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) was the most dominant thrips species, accounting 92% of all specimens collected from leaf samples and yellow sticky traps. Dispersion indices generated by Taylor's power law and Iwao's patchiness regression were compared. Generally, Taylor's power law provided better description of mean-variance relationship than did Iwao's patchiness regression with exception of the data from the sticky trap. Slopes and intercepts of Taylor's power law from leaf sample and visual estimate did not differ among thrips species and surveyed greenhouses. A fixed-precision-level of sequential sampling plan was developed using Taylor's power law parameters generated from total number of thrips in leaf sample and visual estimate. This sampling plan for visual estimate was tested with sequential resampling simulation using 4 independent data sets. Resampling simulation analysis demonstrated that actual D values were always less than desired D values of 0.20, 0.25 and 0.30.

Development and Validation of a Fixed-Precision Sampling Plan for Estimating Striped Cucumber Beetle (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) Density in Cucurbits

The striped cucumber beetle, Acalymma vittatum (F.), has been identified as one of the most damaging insect pests of vegetables in Minnesota. In an effort to develop practical methods for estimating adult beetle density, beetles were sampled in cucurbit fields throughout central and southern Minnesota during 1994–1995. A. vittatum samples were collected in several cucurbit crops including cucumber, pumpkin, and squash. A sample unit consisted of 7 consecutive plants within a row. Beetle counts were recorded for each of the 7 plants in a sample unit and the sample size consisted of a total of 48 sample units in each field. Counts from individual plants in a sample unit were combined to evaluate progressively larger sample units of 1, 2,… 7 consecutive plants. An enumerative fixed-precision sampling plan was developed based on Green's method and the Taylor power law. Performance of the plan was validated using bootstrap (resampling) simulations and 9 independent data sets. Final analysis indicated that a sample unit of 2 consecutive plants provided the highest relative net precision (RNP) for estimating A. vittatum adult density. On average, over a range of densities, thirty 2-plant sample units per field were necessary to maintain the desired precision (SEM/ x ) level of 0.25. This plan should aid further research on A. vittatum population dynamics, the yield–density relationship, or the correlation between density and incidence of bacterial wilt. This plan also can be used in tandem with recently developed economic thresholds for pest management decision making.