Fiscal Policy Variables Research Articles

Time‐Varying US Government Spending Anticipation in Real Time

ABSTRACTDue to legislation and implementation lags, forward‐looking economic agents anticipate changes in fiscal policy variables before they actually occur. The literature shows that this foresight poses a challenge to the econometric analysis of fiscal policies. While most of the literature uses fully revised data to investigate the degree of fiscal foresight, we use forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), the Greenbook/Tealbook from the Federal Reserve, and the Real‐Time Data Set for Macroeconomists. Furthermore, we distinguish between federal as well as state and local consumption & investment expenditures. We find that real‐time data matter. Using the first release, the SPF nowcast was able to predict 43% of the out‐of‐sample fluctuation in federal government spending growth (only 24% using the most recent release). Moreover, the SPF was able to predict 60% and 52% of the cumulated growth in federal and state & local government spending growth over a 1‐year horizon. We use the Diebold–Mariano tests and model confidence sets to investigate whether SPF forecasts significantly outperform the Greenbook projections and forecasts from purely backward‐looking time series models. Compared to the SPF and Greenbook projections, the time series models perform inferior at most forecast horizons. In addition, so‐called information advantage regressions reveal that most forecasts could be improved by using the information of the SPF. Using rolling windows, we document remarkable time‐variation in the degree of fiscal foresight of the SPF and its information advantage against (augmented) autoregressive models and the Greenbook. Particularly during the 1980s and 2000s, we find a strong degree of anticipation for government spending at the federal level by the SPF and the central bank.

Comparative impact of fiscal and monetary policies on economic growth in Nigeria

This work examined the comparative impact of fiscal policy and monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1981 to 2021 using annual time series data on real gross domestic product, broad money supply, government expenditure, total government revenue, and interest rate (lending rate). The objectives are to determine whether the fiscal policy or the monetary policy impacts more on economic growth in Nigeria and to ascertain the causality relationship between fiscal policy, monetary policy and economic growth in Nigeria over the period. The study employed ARDL Bounds Testing methodology in determining whether long run relationship exists between fiscal policy (proxy government expenditure and total government revenue), monetary policy (proxy broad money supply and interest rate (lending rate) and real gross domestic product. The result indicated that broad money supply representing monetary policy has positive relationship with and statistically significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria over the study period as indicated by its t-statistic and probability values of 6.436365 and 0.0000 respectively. Fiscal policy variable (government expenditure), on the other hand, has negative relationship with economic growth and statistically significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria as indicated by its t-statistic and probability values of -2.427968 and 0.0234 respectively. From the result, a change in money supply (monetary policy) affects economic growth positively while a change in Fiscal policy variable (government expenditure) affects economic growth negatively. Besides, the coefficient of monetary policy (0.457048) is greater than fiscal policy coefficient (-0.300554) and implies that monetary policy impacts more than fiscal policy impacts on economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore monetary policy does impact more than Fiscal policy on economic growth in Nigeria over the period studied. The result further indicated that there is no significant causality relationship between fiscal policy, monetary policy and economic growth in Nigeria over the period covered as indicated by the probability values of both fiscal and monetary policy variables employed and economic growth. The study therefore recommends that policy makers should focus more on monetary policy than fiscal policy so as to enhance economic growth since monetary policy has more concern with economic growth than fiscal policy. Keywords: Economic growth, fiscal policy, monetary policy, ARDL, Bound Test, Causality, Nigeria.

Econometric Analysis of South Africa’s Fiscal and Monetary Policy Effects on Economic Growth from 1980 to 2022

This study examined South Africa’s economic growth rate from 1980 to 2022 through an econometric analysis of fiscal and monetary policies. The study sought to investigate the relationships between the economy’s growth rate and various fiscal and monetary policy variables, taking into account different economic approaches such as Keynesian, monetarist, and Wagner’s perspectives. The methodology used consisted of data preparation, multiple unit root tests, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration analysis, diagnostic tests, and pairwise Granger causality analysis. The empirical analysis found a long-term cointegration among the economic growth rate, government debt, expenditure, and revenue in fiscal policy, though government debt and expenditure were not statistically significant. Contrary to economic theory, increased government revenue had a negative correlation with economic growth. There was no long-term relationship found between the economic growth rate and monetary policy variables such as the official exchange rate, inflation rate, real interest rates, and M3 money supply. Pairwise Granger causality tests revealed a one-way relationship between government spending and economic growth, providing support to the Keynesian approach to fiscal policy. This study also discovered evidence that economic growth Granger-causes inflation, implying that economic growth may have predictive power for inflation, consistent with the demand-pull inflation hypothesis. However, no direct predictive relationships were found between the selected monetary policy variables and economic growth, supporting the long-run theory of monetary neutrality. This study suggests evaluating spending, managing inflation, implementing reforms, closing infrastructure gaps, encouraging investment, and ensuring fiscal sustainability.

Factors that influence the Islamic Perspective Human Development Index as Evidence of the Development of the Muslim Community

This study aims to analyze the relationship between macroeconomics and zakat on the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Islamic Human Development Index (I-HDI) using the maqāṣid al-sharī'ah theory approach. We also calculate I-HDI based on maqāṣid al-sharī'ah theory by combining material and non-material aspects and then compare between I-HDI and HDI. The indicators used in the calculation of I-HDI are indicators that are relevant and in accordance with the objectives of maqāṣid al-sharīʿah, so that I-HDI can give a general picture of the results of human development. By employing the dynamic panel regression two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) the study finds that there is a significant difference and quite a large disparity between the results of the HDI and I-HDI, in 34 provinces of Indonesia. The study reveals that economic growth, health fiscal policy, and zakat have a positive effect both on HDI and I-HDI. Nevertheless, the education fiscal policy variable has a positive effect on I-HDI, and conversely, has a negative effect on HDI. This condition occurs because the target and strategy for absorption of the education budget are not optimally carried out by the government. This research suggests that in formulating budget policies, the government should not only focus on material elements but also non-material elements which are reflected in the I-HDI model.

Public finance instruments and output growth in Nigeria

This study investigates the empirical relationship between the aggregated and disaggregated components of fiscal policy variables and output growth in Nigeria using the vector error correction mechanism for the period of 1981 to 2021. This formulation was an improvement over previous empirical studies of the impact of public finance instruments on output growth in Nigeria. Our findings suggest that fiscal policy instruments (total expenditure, capital expenditure, recurrent expenditure, total revenue, primary fiscal balance, domestic debt, external debt, oil tax revenue, and non-oil tax revenue) exert significant impacts on output growth and most of the empirical results obtained support the hypothesised relationships between public finance instruments and output growth in Nigeria. However, aggregate federal government expenditure exerts a significant negative impact on output growth, while on the disaggregated scale, capital expenditure exerts a significant positive influence on output growth whereas recurrent expenditure exerts a significant negative impact on output growth. Given these findings, we recommend that the government of Nigeria, through its fiscal authorities, should adopt growth-enhancing fiscal policies that would engender macroeconomic stability and will be potent in refocusing recurrent expenditure towards ensuring productivity growth.

FISCAL POLICY ON ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT IN NIGERIA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

In recent times, the challenges of government policy formulation to achieve desired objectives and maintaining a sustainable environment without inhibiting human well-being is still an issue of debate among scholars in the literature. Many factors have been identified as culpable of environmental humiliation, but the government policy as a factor is more often than not ignored. However, the government formulates policies most especially fiscal policy that involve the collection of revenue through taxation and expenditure on infrastructural facilities, industrialization, mechanization, urbanization, etc to achieve sustained economic growth without recur to the effect of the policy on ecological footprint and its effects on human well-being in the society. Thus, this study uses the ARDL econometric approach on annual time series data extending from 1981 to 2022 to investigate the effect of fiscal policy on the ecological footprint in Nigeria. The variables used in the study include ecological footprint proxied by comprehensive measures of environmental degradation (dependent variable), government tax revenue and expenditure (independent variable), population, and technological changes proxied by industrial activities are the control variables. The study's findings indicate that fiscal policy variables are both positively and negatively related to ecological footprint and are statically significant. Specifically, government tax revenue reduces ecological footprint while government expenditure escalates the environmental degradation in Nigeria during the period under review and they are all significant statistically at 1% and 5% respectively. Considering these results, the research concludes that fiscal policy formulation has a noteworthy effect in determining changes in the ecological footprint in Nigeria. Given the effect of tax and government spending policy on infrastructure and industrialization, the government should formulate policies that are environmentally friendly and increase budgetary allocation to control and manage environmental challenges that inhabit the well-being of the citizens. By implication, the economic growth policy which invariably leads to ecological footprint challenges should be properly looked at to reduce ecological footprint in Nigeria.

Threshold Analysis of Fiscal Policy Variables and Private Investment in Nigeria

This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal policy variables and private investment in Nigeria for the period 1970 – 2019 with a view to establishing the threshold level of each of the key fiscal policy variables in relation to private investment. The study employed annual and quarterly time series data covering the period 1970:1 to 2019:4 which were sourced in part from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Data collected were analyzed using econometric techniques. The variables used were private domestic investment, budget deficit, recurrent and capital government expenditure, oil and non-oil government revenue and public debt. The main findings are: First, there is an evidence of a double threshold effects of the fiscal balance. When exceeding a budget deficit level of 3.98 per cent of GDP or a fiscal surplus level of 3.2 per cent of GDP, private investment is negatively affected. Also, increase in government total expenditure beyond the third regime made private investment to become less productive. As regards public debt, the results revealed that private investment had the most positive impact on economic growth in the first regime of public debt. A resort to public debt beyond this level will make private investment less productive thereby inhibiting growth. The study therefore, concludes that government should be cautious in resulting to debt instruments to finance its deficit. It should also make a concerted effort to increase its expenditure especially in the provision of infrastructural facilities as this directly influence private investment decision positively.

Investigating the relationship of government revenue and expenditure on economic growth using a generalized method of moments: Does state-level panel ensure sustainable growth?

The current research project investigates the correlation between economic growth, government spending, and public revenue in seventeen Indian states spanning the years 1990 to 2020. An analysis of the relationship between key fiscal policy variables and economic growth was conducted utilising a panel data approach, the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM), and fully modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS & DOLS) estimation. In our investigation, we assessed the impacts of non-tax revenue, development plan expenditure, tax revenue, and development non-plan expenditure on (i) the net state domestic product (NSDP) and (ii) the NSDP per capita. The findings indicate that the selected fiscal variables are significantly related. The results indicate that expeditious expansion of the fiscal sector is obligatory to stimulate economic growth in India and advance the actual development of the economies of these states.

Brazilian Fiscal Policy and Its Procyclical Nature: A Long-Term Analysis

Fiscal policy should be contractionary during economic expansion and expansionary during recessions. The objective of this article is to investigate the nature of long-term discretionary fiscal policy in Brazil in relation to the level of economic activity and the terms of trade. A fiscal policy variable without cyclical effects was chosen, and the results of the cointegration analysis indicate that long-term fiscal policy is destabilizing; this findings parallels those in the literature. However, in regard to trade cycles, this policy prevents their amplification.

THE EFFECT OF FISCAL POLICY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MONETARY POLICY AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN NIGERIA

This study examined the effect of fiscal policy on the relationship between monetary policy and macroeconomic variables in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation. The study employed a two-stage least square technique as estimation technique, where in the first step; the empirical models of fiscal and monetary policies were separately estimated. In the second step, the dependencies of each policy on the other are then included, to capture the effects of each on the other. Annual time series on the various monetary policy and fiscal policy variables from 1981 to 2020 were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was used to examine the stochastic properties of the series. The findings revealed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, and money supply are negatively related to monetary policy rate in Nigeria. Also, government expenditure limits the effectiveness of monetary policy in the management of both economic growth and inflation in Nigeria as the effect on inflation reduces from 0.06 to 0.02 and the effect on GDP changes from negative to positive. The study recommended that there should be an establishment of better consultation between both policies in order to secure high and sustainable fiscal and monetary policy mix and hence economic growth with price stability.

Analysis of The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Driving the Regional Economy: Case Study in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia

This research investigates the relationship between fiscal policy, as implemented by the Indonesian government, and the economic growth of the South Sulawesi province. The economic landscape in Sulawesi is characterized by small-scale activities, primarily centered around resource extraction, agriculture, and fishing. The study aims to analyze the impact of fiscal policies on regional economic development in South Sulawesi, focusing on government budget allocation, infrastructure spending, social welfare programs, and tax policies. The research employs a quantitative approach, utilizing regression analysis to examine the causal relationships between fiscal policy variables and regional economic indicators. The results indicate a significant influence of fiscal policy and its effectiveness on the regional economy, emphasizing the importance of tailored fiscal strategies for sustainable economic growth. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers at both regional and national levels to formulate effective economic policies aligned with the specific needs of the South Sulawesi province. Moreover, the study contributes to the broader literature on fiscal policy effectiveness, particularly within the context of regional economies.

Conditional Political Cycles in Africa: Myth or Reality?

Abstract This study tests for the presence of political cycles in Africa. Through an analysis encompassing data from 30 African nations over the period 1980–2020, we ask whether political incumbents in Africa rely on monetary and fiscal policy variables to improve their reelection prospects. In particular, we test for the existence of ‘conditional political cycles’, namely, we show that both government consumption and money growth go up during an election year, even when we account for critical institutional factors such as government attributes and political regimes. Our findings reveal a noticeable upswing in both government consumption and money growth during election years, a trend that holds consistent even after controlling for key institutional variables. Further exploration, however, unveils that this phenomenon is nuanced, particularly in the case of political monetary cycles; in particular, our analysis shows that when an African country is classified as a democracy during an election year, broad money falls. But although robust institutions can curtail the intensity of political monetary cycles, they do not exert a similar effect on fiscal variables. Finally, we test for the presence of ‘political credit cycles’ and find no empirical evidence that African incumbents manipulate credit markets to bolster their electoral outcomes.

Fiscal and Monetary Policies Interactions in Nigeria and South Africa: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

The interaction between fiscal and monetary policies in achieving macroeconomic goals has been a subject of debate, particularly on whether they complement or substitute each other. This issue arises when both policy authorities are independent of each other. This study aims to revisit the interaction of fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria and South Africa using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) and calibration technique. The model consists of 20 equations that illustrate the behaviour of endogenous variables. The parameters are obtained from relevant DSGE literature and economic intuitions about the two economies. The findings reveal that fiscal and monetary policy variables interact in both economies. Inflation responds to fiscal policy shocks such as government spending, revenue and borrowing shocks. Monetary authorities’ decisions such as interest rates and inflation also affect fiscal policy variables. However, the performance of monetary and fiscal policy variables is better in South Africa than in Nigeria. The study recommends closer coordination between the monetary and fiscal authorities in both economies to resolve policy design and implementation issues. Government monitoring and assessment units should also be strengthened to track the implementation and delivery of policies decided upon at coordination meetings.

Role of Government in Promoting Real Sector Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Nigerian Experience

This paper investigated the role of government in promoting real sector development in sub-Saharan Africa with a focus on the Nigerian economy. The government’s role was measured using fiscal and monetary policy variables such as total government expenditure, broad money supply and interest rate, while the ratio of manufacturing value added to GDP formed the basis for measuring real sector development. Time series data on the variables were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and analysed using econometrics tools of error correction mechanism (ECM) and Granger causality test. The unit root test results revealed that all the variables are first difference stationary. It was also found from the cointegration test that variables have a long-run relationship. It was found from the parsimonious ECM that broad money supply and rate of interest are statistically insignificant in influencing manufacturing output. The results further reveal that the second and third leg of the government expenditure ratio to GDP significantly impacts manufacturing output. 1 percent increase in the first leg of government expenditure increases manufacturing output by 5.962 percent. Similarly, with a percentage in the second lag of government expenditure, manufacturing output increases by 3.182 percent. Additionally, the pairwise Granger causality test results reveal that unidirectional causality flows from the ratio of government expenditure to manufacturing output. Overall, the results indicate that fiscal policy, especially government expenditure, can be relied upon in predicting changes in manufacturing output. Thus, it is recommended for proper monitoring of fiscal policy measures, especially public expenditures, to ensure they are accounted for holistically and effectively utilised in fostering real sector development.

Government Fiscal Policy and Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria: An Application of VAR Model

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of key fiscal policy variables (government capital expenditure, government revenue, government recurrent expenditure, external debt and tax revenue) on foreign direct investment and to check if there exists a causal relationship between fiscal policy and Foreign direct investment in Nigeria. Approach/Methodology/Design: Times series Econometrics methods such as Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model, unit root test, cointegration test, Lag selection test and Granger causality test on annual data obtained from CBN statistical bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics spanning 1985 to 2020 were used. Findings: The results of the unit root test showed that FDI, government capital expenditure, government revenue and tax were stationary at order one (1), while recurrent expenditure and external debt were stationary at order zero (0). Also there exists co-integration among all the variables in the model. The findings showed that fiscal policy has insignificant impact on foreign direct investment in Nigeria. Originality/value: The results of this paper give valuable information on the relationship that fiscal policy may have with foreign direct investment and a need for a well-articulated and coordinated fiscal policy to attract FDI in Nigeria for optimum growth and development.

Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from South Asian Countries

This study aims to find the effects of fiscal policy variables on economic growth in South Asian nations based on panel data of 21 years from 2001 to 2021.The study adopted descriptive and causal relationship research design. In this study, the correlation matrix is used to describe the relationship between variables, and the hausman test is applied to select the fixed and random effect models. The results revealed that gross capital formation and public debt had significant and positive effect on economic growth in South Asian countries. Tax revenue was found to have significant but negative effect on economic growth while government expenditure was found to have insignificant and positive effect on economic growth. The study therefore concludes that fiscal policy has significant relationship with economic growth in South Asian Countries. Additionally, efforts should be made while implementing fiscal reforms that focuses public expenditure to a manageable and specified economic sectors.

The Implication of Fiscal Variables in the Monetary Reaction Function of Pakistan

This paper investigates the influence of fiscal variables on the monetary reaction function innPakistan. The main concern of a macroeconomic policy is to achieve sustainable growth and to keep a low level of inflation in the economy. For empirical analysis, the Autoregressive Distributive Lag model (ARDL) is applied using quarterly data for the period 2004Q1 to 2020Q4. The empirical evidence reveals that the monetary policy instrument in the monetary reaction function is explained significantly by the fiscal policy variables both in the short and long-run. Monetary policy independently cannot control inflation unless it has the support of the fiscal policy. Therefore, for an optimal policy mix, a wise monetary policy must be followed by a comprehensive fiscal policy in the case of Pakistan.

Fiscal policy and sukuk market development in OIC countries

PurposeThis study aims to examine the fiscal policy drivers of sovereign sukuk market development in selected Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries. Specifically, the research aims to analyze the effects of fiscal deficit, public debt and government expenditure on sovereign sukuk market development, while controlling for macroeconomic and financial factors.Design/methodology/approachThe sample consists of eight OIC member countries that play active role in the global sukuk market which include Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, Indonesia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey and Sudan. In addition, the study covers a period of 10 years spanning between 2011 and 2020. Similarly, the study uses three models, namely, random effect, generalized least square and system generalized method of moments panel models. To check for the robustness of the results, the study replaces current values of fiscal policy variables with one-year lagged values.FindingsThe findings establish that fiscal policy variables significantly influence the development of sovereign sukuk markets. Specifically, public debt is a significant fiscal variable that promotes sovereign sukuk market development, while fiscal deficit has a negative effect on the development of sovereign sukuk market. However, the findings suggest that government expenditure does not influence sovereign sukuk issuance in the OIC member countries.Practical implicationsThe study is significant to both investors and regulators in the sukuk market because it attempts to spotlight the importance of sound fiscal climate in developing sovereign sukuk market. Public debt is a facilitator, whereas fiscal deficit appears to be a constraint. Therefore, policymakers should determine the optimal mix of public debt and fiscal deficit in designing policies that promote sukuk market development.Originality/valueThe novelty of the study is its focus on the role of fiscal policy variables in facilitating sovereign sukuk market development. The study systematically establishes the link between fiscal policy and sovereign sukuk market in the OIC countries. Previous empirical studies focus extensively on the effects of macroeconomic, financial and institutional factors on sukuk market development.

AN ANALYSIS OF TREND AND PATTERN OF FISCAL POLICY IN NORTHEAST INDIA WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO ASSAM

Fiscal policy plays an important role in the development of a country. The present study aims to analyse the trend and pattern of fiscal policy variables in case of Assam in Northeast India. The study finds that all the three variables viz. total expenditure, revenue receipts and public debt showed an upward trend with slight fluctuations. From 2004-05 onwards share of revenue receipts in GSDP started to improve and it was above 15% from 2004-05 to 2019-20. Total government expenditure increased with a CAGR of 10.7% and the expenditure to GSDP ratio was more than 10% for the study period. Regarding public debt, after the implementation of the AFRBM Act in 2005, Assam maintained a debt-GSDP ratio of 28% and below as prescribed by the Twelfth Finance Commission.

The Effectiveness Of The Exchange Rate on The Amount of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the interaction variables of fiscal transfer policy variables. (Foreign Exchange Reserves, Imports, Exports, Exchange Rates and GDP). This study uses secondary data or from 2000 - 2019. The data analysis model in this study uses the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and is sharpened by Impulse Response Function (IRF) Analysis, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). The results of the VAR analysis show that previously (t – p) contributed to the current variable, both alone and to other variables. The results of the FEVD analysis show that all variables have a major contribution to the variables themselves in the short, medium and long term, namely Foreign Exchange Reserves, Imports, Exports, Exchange Rates and GDP. The results of the analysis of each variable of monetary policy transmission and the effectiveness of the Exchange Rate on Reserves Short, medium and longterm exchange rates show that policy transmission can maintain the Indonesian economy