Model Of Fiscal Policy Research Articles

БЮДЖЕТНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА 2020-2026 ГОДОВ: В УСЛОВИЯХ ТУРБУЛЕНТНОСТИ

In 2020–2023, the Russian economy and budget system demonstrated a high capacity for stability and adaptability. At the same time, the simultaneous solution of the tasks of increasing the defense capability and intensifying the structural restructuring of the economy, strengthening its sovereignty while maintaining macroeconomic balance requires restructuring the system of managing budget expenditures and changing their structure. This new model of fiscal policy still needs to be developed and the design of the budget for 2025–2026 needs to be changed.

Political constraints and sovereign default

We study how political constraints, characterized by the degree of flexibility to choose fiscal policies, affect the probability of sovereign default. To that end, we relax the assumption that policymakers always repay their debt in the dynamic model of fiscal policy developed by Battaglini and Coate (2008). In our setup, legislators bargain over taxes, general spending, debt repayment, and a local public good that can be targeted to the region they represent. Under tighter political constraints, more legislators have veto power, implying that local public goods need to be provided to a larger number of regions. The resources that are freed after a default have to be shared with a higher number of individuals, which reduces the benefits from defaulting in per-capita terms. This lowers the incentive to default compared to the case with lax political constraints. The model is calibrated to Argentina and the results conform to robust empirical evidence. An event study for the 2001/2002 sovereign debt crisis shows that political constraints had an important role in the buildup that led to the crisis.

FISCAL POLICY OF UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION: ORGANIZATIONAL AND LEGAL PROBLEMS OF IMPLEMENTATION

The relevance of the chosen issue is due to the fact that in the face of negative external and internal factors, the economic system of the state is under threat of destruction, which requires an appropriate response from the state authorities. Therefore, in order to overcome or minimize these challenges, as well as to promote healthy macroeconomic environment, fiscal policy can be used as a powerful tool for regulating economic activity. The purpose of the article is to analyze the institutional problems of implementing fiscal policy in Ukraine in the context of European integration. The systemic-structural method, systemic method, critical analysis method, formal-and-legal method, and analytical methods were used to achieve this goal. The normative basis of the study is the legal acts of Ukraine, while the scientific framework of this study is primarily the interpretation of basic concepts, notably, “fiscal policy». The content and elements of the fiscal policy are defined. The essence and system of fiscal policy bodies, which are divided into bodies of general and special competence, are determined. The shortcomings of the organizational and legal regulation of fiscal policy in Ukraine in the context of European integration are analyzed. The foreign experience of implementing fiscal policy is reviewed. It is concluded that there is an objective need to develop a concept for improving the fiscal policy of Ukraine in the context of European integration, the content of which wouldvf be aimed at a gradual conceptual transition of Ukraine to the model of fiscal policy of the EU member states. Furthermore, taking into account the lack of criteria for determining the efficiency and effectiveness of the state’s activities in the economic sphere, the need to elaborate a mechanism that allows assessing the activities of state bodies in terms of spending the state’s financial resources is established. The practical value of this study lies in the fact that the proposals set out in the article are aimed at improving the implementation of fiscal policy in Ukraine, which will facilitate its integration into the European space.

Fiscal Rules and Discretion Under Limited Enforcement

We study a fiscal policy model in which the government is present‐biased towards public spending. Society chooses a fiscal rule to trade off the benefit of committing the government to not overspend against the benefit of granting it flexibility to react to privately observed shocks to the value of spending. Unlike prior work, we examine rules under limited enforcement: the government has full policy discretion and can only be incentivized to comply with a rule via the use of penalties which are joint and bounded. We show that optimal incentives must be bang‐bang. Moreover, under a distributional condition, the optimal rule is a maximally enforced deficit limit, triggering the maximum feasible penalty whenever violated. Violation optimally occurs under high enough shocks if and only if available penalties are weak and such shocks are relatively unlikely. We derive comparative statics showing how rules should be calibrated to features of the environment.

Контрцикличная фискальная и монетарная политика государства в области макроэкономического регулирования

The problem of countercyclical fiscal and monetary regulation has become very ur- gent in the last two decades. This article is devoted to the analysis and assessment of countercyclical fiscal and monetary policy from the point of view of the fundamental basis, as well as its practical application. The subject of this research is countercycli- cal fiscal and monetary policy from the point of view of its effectiveness in the con- text of the economic crisis. The methodological basis of the study is an overview of theoretical and practical models of countercyclical fiscal and monetary policy known in the scientific literature. The key objective of the study was to attempt to identify and evaluate countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies from the point of view of theory and practice. The result of the study was the conclusion that in a crisis, coun- tercyclical fiscal and monetary policy leads to ambiguous results, but on the whole, it is the most optimal for leveling the consequences of the crisis.

Japan’s Decade Long Tryst with Deflation : What Led a Prospering Economy into a Deflationary Spiral?

Japan suffered a deflationary hangover from the great episodic Yen appreciations during the late 1980s into the mid-1990s. The country’s GDP stagnated at low levels during the lost decade, and inflation was persistently low. The period beginning early 1991 and extending to 2001 is popularly referred to as Japan’s lost decade, characterized by deflation. The government’s remedial measure – an expansionary fiscal policy failed to boost the economy. Using the macroeconomic concepts of fiscal policy, monetary policy, and IS-LM model, this note elucidated why an expansionary fiscal policy failed in Japan, despite having the potential to succeed. The analysis also highlighted the impertinence of a credit crunch in the monetary sector on the economic crisis.

De-Shadowization of Tax Gaps in the System-Compositional Models of State Fiscal Policy: Comparative Analysis of EU Countries and Ukraine

The purpose of the article is to consider the empirical calculations of the level of de-shadowization of tax gaps in the system-compositional model of the fiscal policy of the state. The methodological approach to cointegration of the level of de-shadowization of tax gaps into the system-compositional model of fiscal policy is substantiated, taking into account the strategic determinants of financial and economic development of the state. The method of calculation of the integrated indicator of strategic alternatives is presented and represents the configuration of the modified system of fiscal innovations in relation to the taxation of economic entities. A methodical approach to estimating the level of de-shadowization of the tax gap on the income tax of economic entities is proposed. The level of unit testing of variables of de-shadowization of tax gaps from indicators of financial and economic development of the EU and Ukraine is analyzed. It is concluded that one of the most influential factors today is the de-shadowization of the economy. The future directions are the research of the ways to improve Ukraine’s fiscal policy.

FISCAL STIMULATION OF SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT: THE EU COUNTRIES’ CASES

Abstract. The objective of this article is to form the basis for strengthening the fiscal stimulus spatial development of regional economic systems in the context of decentralization. The methods of research: dialectical, synthesis, analysis, generalizations and monographic, abstraction and generalizations. Results. The authors consider the «fiscal space» as a certain economic spatial formation, formed by elements of the regional economic system, which are involved in the construction of budget components and management of financial flows. The positive impact of the fiscal policy’s implementation in the context of decentralization is highlighted, as well as a certain imbalance of certain areas that provoke the search for ways of fiscal policy objectives intra-regional coordination. Summarizing the experience of European countries on fiscal stimulation of the development of regional economic systems, the following trends are highlighted: first, the main regulatory instruments are tax and budgetary policies, the level of their development and independence in the regions of countries; secondly, regional fiscal policy is always subordinated to the national economic development strategy; thirdly, taxes are becoming a tool for both stimulating and restraining the regions’ development. The article proposes the ways to smooth out negative challenges and the task of regional development’s fiscal stimulation is defined. The experience of European countries allows us to explore the prospects for developing tools for fiscal stimulus to ensure the sustainability and modernization of the regional space. Conclusions. The experience of European countries in the implementation of fiscal policy in the context of decentralization and the functioning of local self-government is studied. Despite the binding nature and dominance of European norms in fiscal policy, each country has formed its own strategic goals in economic development. This allowed preserving the national identity of individual territories, the specificity of the cultural value’s impact on the fiscal stimulation of regional economic systems. The authors come to the conclusion that the adaptation of the best practices in European countries in the Ukrainian economy’s conditions requires their reformatting under the goals and strategies of national economic policy. Directions of implementation of EU countries’ experience in fiscal stimulus of regional space in Ukraine are identified in the article. Keywords: fiscal space, fiscal stimulus, fiscal policy, European models of fiscal policy, tax system, budget system, decentralization, regional economic system. JEL Classification E63 Formulas: 0; fig.: 0; tabl.: 2; bibl.: 23

Optimal policy with general signal extraction

Most available results on optimal decisions under partial information are derived under “separation”. But this principle does not always hold. We derive a non-standard first order condition of optimality from first principles when signal extraction and optimal policy must be jointly determined. This allows us to solve a model of optimal fiscal policy where separation does not apply. Tax smoothing prevails in normal times, but taxes respond strongly in recessions. This non-linearity arises because signal extraction interacts differently with optimal policy depending on the value of the observed signals. Existing results based on the “separation principle” follow as special cases.

In a Global Pandemic, Modeling the Central Bank Functions

In 2020, the global corona-virus pandemic created economic crises and market panics in most nations of the world. The central bank, in each nation, took actions to calm financial markets and avoid economic depression. This expansion of central bank functions had begun in the previous 2008 global financial crisis and was increased in 2020. We analyze this 2020 pandemic financial crisis to understand the new spectrum of central bank functions, and we apply system models of monetary policy and fiscal policy to identify operations of central banks.

Mandatory spending, political polarization, and macroeconomic volatility

This paper studies the impact of political polarization on macroeconomic volatility in a political economy model of optimal fiscal policy. I introduce the distinction between mandatory and discretionary public spending in a model where consumers disagree on the size of the public sector. In the presence of political turnover and political polarization, public policies that affect individual decision-making lead to macroeconomic volatility. I show that the legislative requirements behind the changes in mandatory public spending can reduce macroeconomic volatility caused by political polarization and political turnover. The numerical simulations of the model suggest that in the presence of a binding constraint on the changes in mandatory spending, an increase in the political polarization is associated with an increase in the share of mandatory spending and a decrease in the macroeconomic volatility, consistent with the U.S. data.

Sovereign Risk, Public Investment and the Fiscal Policy Stance

Of the different types of government outlays, since the 2000s public investment has been the main variable of adjustment during recessions in advanced and emerging economies. These contractions (expansions) have been associated with relatively medium-high (low) sovereign spreads, especially in advanced economies. To rationalize these issues, we develop a model of fiscal policy and sovereign default, with corporate default risk. Policymakers must decide between the provision of an unproductive public good and public investment, weighting their respective net benefits in terms of short-term stabilization and debt sustainability. In our model, investment follows a countercyclical stance only in the case of low levels of debt and moderate negative shocks, and otherwise contracts during recessions. The policy stance, along with the mix between different outlays, is determined by how sovereign risk responds to adverse economic shocks.

The impact of tax and budget policy on the level of economic growth

Relevance of the research topic. In the current conditions of development of social relations, the issues of increasing the validity of fiscal policy, using its regulatory potential for the proper fulfillment of tasks and functions entrusted to them by state bodies and local self-government bodies are actualized. An important task of fiscal policy is to improve its instruments aimed at accelerating economic growth. At the same time, the peculiarities of the formation and implementation of fiscal policy in both the advanced and transformational economies are conditioned by a number of factors, the most important of which are: the level of economic growth and institutional capacity of the country. Formulation of the problem. Based on the transformation processes in the domestic system of public finances, the major tasks are: the reconciliation of fiscal policy with the strategic task of socio-economic development of the country, improving the architecture of budget revenues and expenditures; ensuring the concentration of limited budgetary resources in those sectors of the economy that will facilitate the acceleration of economic growth, which requires further scientific studies of theoretical and applied aspects of fiscal policy formulation and implementation, assessment of its impact on the level of economic growth. At the same time, the choice of fiscal policy instruments should be made taking into account the cyclical and dynamic economic processes. Analysis of recent research and publications. The problems of forming and implementing fiscal policy are quite common in scientific research. These are the works of well-known domestic and foreign scientists: J. Buchanan, W. Mitchell, J. M. Keynes, T. Bogolib, I. Zapatrina, L. Lisyak, I. Chugunov and others. Highlighting unexplored parts of a common problem. The aforementioned issues are updated due to the increasing globalization processes, the unfavorable external and internal economic environment, which requires a number of specific tasks related to the development of fiscal policy. Goal setting, research goals. The objectives of the study are: to reveal the nature and role of fiscal policy in ensuring economic growth, to substantiate the features of fiscal policy in the current conditions of development of the public finance system; to analyze and evaluate the consolidated budget revenues and expenditures; identify the main factors that influence the peculiarities of fiscal policy implementation; to open up provisions for improving the efficiency of the fiscal policy regulatory mechanism. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the priorities of fiscal policy of economic growth in the context of institutional transformation. Research method or methodology. The set of methods of scientific research is applied in the article: systematic approach, statistical analysis, structuring, analysis, synthesis, etc. Basic material presentation (results of work). The essence and role of fiscal policy in ensuring the economic growth of the country are determined. The consolidated budget revenues and expenditures have been analyzed and estimated. The priorities of fiscal policy of economic growth in the context of institutional transformations are substantiated. Area of application of results. The results of this study can be applied in the process of forming and implementing fiscal policy of Ukraine, reforming the public finance system. Conclusions according to article. Fiscal policy is a dynamic system of goals, directions and tasks of public authorities and local self-government aimed at ensuring the stability, stability and balance of the budget system, further improving the institutional environment of budgetary relations, taking into account the cyclical and dynamic economic processes. Developing an effective fiscal policy involves developing a structural and functional model of fiscal policy that is based on the integration of institutional components of the budgetary space. Assessment of the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth should include a detailed analysis of the architecture of budgetary indicators, as well as an assessment of possible risks. In modern conditions of development of social relations the important tasks of fiscal policy are: optimization of the level of tax burden; improvement of the architectonics of budget expenditures (a significant share of budget expenditures goes to consumption); improving the architecture of budget revenues, in particular by changing the relationship between indirect and direct taxes; raising the level of the regulatory function of fiscal policy, in particular by supporting the development of major sectors of the economy. The article identifies strategic priorities of fiscal policy of economic growth in the context of institutional transformations.

Сглаживание налоговой нагрузки в России

Robert J. Barro developed a theory in which the government borrows to smooth the tax rate over time and thus reduce welfare losses due to changes in the tax rate. Any positive model of fiscal policy must use tax smoothing as a benchmark. Is this so in Russia? The author of the present paper has used a sample of official data on tax and non-tax revenues and expenditures of the Russian government for 2000–2019 (79 quarterly observations) to test the tax smoothing hypothesis (TSH) by performing random walk, unit root, cointegration and Granger causality tests. The overall tax rate and permanent expenditures are found to be cointegrated only if structural breaks in the data are accounted for, and permanent expenditures Granger-cause the overall tax rate. An auxiliary finding is that the tax rate based on revenues from oil and gas exports are not found to be cointegrated with permanent expenditures, and permanent expenditures do not Granger-cause this rate. These results are interpreted as evidence in support of TSH, because (rephrasing Barro) the finding that a particular category of taxation is not cointegrated with permanent expenditures would not invalidate the central thesis. Overall, the Russian government seems has pursued tax smoothing. Permanent changes in expenditures were followed by tax rate revisions with transitory fiscal imbalances covered by combination of borrowed funds and oil and gas revenues. Lower level of cointegration seems to show that the Russian economy has incurred losses due to incomplete and inconsistent tax smoothing.

Fiscal Stimulus Under Sovereign Risk

The excess procyclicality of fiscal policy is commonly viewed as a central malaise in emerging economies. We document that procyclicality is more pervasive in countries with higher sovereign risk and provide a model of optimal fiscal policy with nominal rigidities and endogenous sovereign default that can account for this empirical pattern. Financing a fiscal stimulus is costly for risky countries and can render countercyclical policies undesirable, even in the presence of large Keynesian stabilization gains. We also show that imposing austerity can backfire by exacerbating the exposure to default, but a well-designed "fiscal forward guidance" can help reduce the excess procyclicality.

PECULIARITIES OF STATE POLICY IN THE FIELD OF ANTI-CYCLIC REGULATION OF ECONOMY - THEORY AND METHODOLOGY

Introduction. Economic cycles, the periodic emergence of economic imbalances, deep economic crises, the need for effective management of economic fluctuations have created the need to develop an effective mechanism for anti-cyclical economic regulation. As a result of the in-depth study of these problems, it has been established that the most effective instruments of anti-cyclical economic regulation are financial instruments owned by the state and divided into monetary and fiscal ones. They in turn are divided into discretionary and non-discretionary, and regulated by legislative acts and regulatory documents. As a result of a retrospective analysis of management of economic cycles through the use of financial means of the state, it has been proved that monetary policy is less sustainable than economic fiscal policy. On the contrary, for the last century, precarious monetary policy has caused many financial and economic upheavals; the world has seen at least three monetary and monetary systems that have been subject to a downturn every time. Therefore, it is not worth considering monetary policy sufficiently effective in the implementation of anti-cyclical regulation. While fiscal policies each time, in all economic crises, have played the role of a "lifeline" for countries that have taken anti-cyclical economic regulation measures. That is why the study of the problem of effective state management of socio-economic fluctuations is one of the most urgent issues of economic science. The goal of the work. To investigate the essence of monetary and fiscal instruments of counter-cyclical regulation of the economy, to identify their strengths and weaknesses, to propose effective mechanisms of counter-cyclical regulation of the economy, which would ensure economic development in the country. Methods. In the course of the research, general scientific and empirical methods of economic science based on a systematic approach are used, in particular: methods of scientific knowledge: dialectical and logical, analysis and synthesis, generalization, graphical, scientific abstraction - in the study of state financial policy in the field of anti-cyclical regulation of the economy. Results. The article deals with the essence of monetary and monetary systems, analyzes their weak and strong sides, identifies the causes of their decline. It was established that monetary factors influenced the emergence of centers of economic crises. The essence of fiscal policy, its types and models, and the way in which its instruments influence the course of the economic cycle are considered and deeply analyzed. The mechanisms of fiscal policy, which should be used by the state at different stages of the economic cycle, are singled out. It is proved that in economically developed countries during the economic crisis it is expedient to use a socially-oriented model of fiscal policy of acyclic nature that most effectively influences the overcoming of economic imbalances and is capable of ensuring the economic equilibrium in the country as soon as possible. Countries that effectively applied the liberal model of fiscal policy, in the conditions of the economic crisis, were forced to resort to transformation towards a more rigid fiscal intervention by the state in economic processes-they were forced to use socially-oriented, acyclic fiscal policies. Only the wider participation of the state in the regulation of economic processes have ensured the rapid and effective overcoming of economic crises, and contributed to the achievement of economic development in most countries of the world. Perspectives. The results of scientific research can be useful for scientists and practitioners who are engaged in research on problems of anti-cyclical regulation of the economy, state financial policy and, in particular, fiscal policy.

Fiscal Rules and Discretion Under Limited Enforcement

We study a fiscal policy model in which the government is present-biased towards public spending. Society chooses a fiscal rule to trade off the benefit of committing the government to not overspend against the benefit of granting it flexibility to react to privately observed shocks to the value of spending. Unlike prior work, we examine rules under limited enforcement: the government has full policy discretion and can only be incentivized to comply with a rule via the use of penalties which are joint and bounded. We show that optimal incentives must be bang-bang. Moreover, under a distributional condition, the optimal rule is a maximally enforced deficit limit, triggering the largest feasible penalty whenever violated. Violation optimally occurs under high enough shocks if and only if available penalties are weak and such shocks are rare. If the rule is self-enforced in a dynamic setting, penalties take the form of temporary overspending.

ANTI-CYCLICAL FISCAL REGULATION OF THE WORLDWIDE COUNTRIES’ ECONOMIES – OPPORTUNITIES FOR UKRAINE

The state fiscal policy and its instruments are the main means of economic fluctuations management and they occupy a leading place in the system of the state anti-cyclical regulation of the economy. Special theoretical and methodological aspects of the fiscal policy and analysis of its influence on the course of the economic cycle were well-reasoned on the ground of a large number of scientific publications. However, it is relevant to research into this problem using the pragmatic approach, which will allow to obtain qualitative scientific results and make the necessary conclusions. In particular, the analysis of fiscal processes in the countries with different economic development and social standards will allow to distinguish the strengths and weaknesses of the opposing patterns of fiscal policy models and types and will determine the impact of such policies on economic growth and overcoming the economic crises in these countries.

Fiscal stimulus and systematic monetary policy: Postwar evidence for the United States

I provide structural VAR evidence that U.S. fiscal stimulus programs induce a systematic loosening of interest rates outside of zero-lower-bound episodes. I characterize this policy easing by the Fed as an indirect reaction to disinflationary dynamics unleashed by fiscal stimulus—a finding I corroborate via Taylor-rule estimations. The supporting monetary policy stance amplifies the impact of the expansion in public spending on GDP by roughly one-third. My evidence aligns with fiscal policy models featuring deep-habits in consumption. The empirical regularity of accommodating policy rates, moreover, questions the perception of stimulus being more effective when policy rates are stuck at zero.

OPTIMIZATION OF TURKISH MACRO ECONOMETRIC FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES FOR GROWTH

Financial and monetary policies are aiming to increase production growth and keeping inflation and unemployment at a minimum. However, the complex interactions between economic variables and the range of economic instruments complicate to obtain these goals. In addition, the economical and behavioural habits of the society and the market economy structure of the nation force the state to choose among the policies. In this context, it is necessary to understand the characteristics of behavioural economics beside the theoretical issues. As, 5-Yearly Development Plans were used for national economic planning, which is used for the purpose of establishing economic policy, the model based Macro-Turkey program was used during a short period. Today, the General Directorate of Economic Modeling and Strategic Studies Medium Term Program Key Macroeconomic and Financial Targets reports make proposals for economic policy making and development. The aim of the work is to estimate and compare the fiscal and monetary policy model of Turkey. The research question considers also the recession periods after 2008-2009 international crises. Some governments had forcefully recourse fiscal policies to overcome the recession. There was a wide consensus that the financial markets had played a decisive role in the current economic problems. A quarterly 2006-2017 data was collected with 44 observations, which includes consumer price inflation 2003 constant prices, policy interest rate, broad money, central government spending, gross fixed capital formation, GDP with constant prices, tax revenues, gross external dept. Dynamic equation system estimates will be held simultaneously with the appropriate variables and indicators. The goal of maximum growth will be optimized under the constraints of Turkish current economic condition. Therefore, the econometric analysis and optimization techniques will be used consecutively. The macro economical Keynesian coefficients are expected to occur with the model. These coefficients are the main ones used to simulate the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models used by the central governments to calibrate their policies. The response of the output to fiscal and financial shocks might quantifiable through simulating the model.