Fiscal Affairs Department Research Articles

Fiscal Crises: The Role of the Public Debt Investor Base and Domestic Financial Markets as Aggravating and Mitigating Factors

The paper evaluates the key drivers of fiscal crises in a sample of countries from all three income groups—advanced, emerging, and low-income countries, using fiscal crisis data recently developed by the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. The empirical study focuses on three questions: (1) How does the composition of debtholders (domestic vs. foreign, resident vs. non-resident, or official vs. non-official) affect the probability of a fiscal crisis, after controlling for the level of public debt and other relevant variables?; (2) How does the development and size of the domestic financial sector affect the probability of a fiscal crisis?; and (3) How do changes in the debt level affect the probability of a fiscal crisis, for given compositions of the sovereign debt investor base and different levels of development and size of domestic financial markets? Our findings confirm the benefits of financial development, the danger of heavy reliance on a non-resident investor base, and also that emerging market economies have a lower debt carrying capacity compared to the full sample.

Public debt and economic growth: contemporary evidence from a developing economy

PurposeConsidering the continuous rise in the public debt stock of developing countries (particularly Ghana) with the unstable economic growth rate for the past decades and the recent borrowing because of the impact of COVID 19, this paper aims to examine the causal relationships between public debt and economic growth over time.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a dynamic multivariate autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL)-based Granger-causality model to test the causal relationships between public debt and economic growth [gross domestic product (GDP)]. Annual time-series data that spanned 1978–2018 were sourced from the World Bank Development Indicator database and the IMF fiscal Affairs Department Database and WEO.FindingsThe results reveal that public debt has no causal relationship with GDP in the short-run but there is unidirectional Granger causality running from public debt to GDP in the long run. Again, investment spending has a negative bi-directional causal relationship with GDP in the short-run but they have a positive bi-directional causal relationship in the long run. Conversely, no short-run causal relationship exists between government consumption expenditure and GDP but long-run Granger causality runs from government consumption expenditure to GDP. Finally, public debt has a positive impact on the inflation rate in the short run.Practical implicationsThe findings imply that government(s) must ensure high fiscal discipline to serve as a precursor for the effective and efficient use of recent borrowing, that is, the loans should be used for highly prioritized projects (preferably investment spending) that are well evaluated and self-sustained to add positively to the GDP.Originality/valueThis paper provides contemporary findings to augment extant literature on public debt and economic growth by using variables and empirical models, which prior studies could not sufficiently cover in a developing country perspective and affirms that public debt contributes to GDP only in the long run.

Priorities for the COVID-19 pandemic at the start of 2021: statement of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission

Priorities for the COVID-19 pandemic at the start of 2021: statement of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission

Republic of Poland

This capacity development mission follows on two earlier missions conducted by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) of the International Monetary Fund. These missions covered the development of a Standard Chart of Accounts (SCoA) and the Medium-Term Budget Framework (MTBF) that are part of the wider Public Financial Management reforms the Polish government is implementing. These reforms will improve consistency in reporting and provide a stronger basis for understanding the financial position of the general government. It will also help attain the medium-term objective of reducing the structural deficit to 1 percent of GDP by 2021. The mission commends the Polish Ministry of Finance (MoF), for the high level of commitment to the reforms. This commitment was evidenced in various actions and activities of government, including public pronouncements by the Minister of Finance. Also, the progress made with the implementation of the recommendations of the earlier missions was noted. Most notable was the establishment of the Budget System Reform (BSR)1 Project Governance Structures, the progress that various working groups have made with research on their respective topics, and the changes to the Budget Regulation of January 2019 to accommodate medium-term planning. This is supported by the high level of knowledge and expertise displayed by staff working on these reforms.

Position Paper and a Common List of Demands for Representatives of the Civil Society From Africa to Propose a Reform of International Corporate Taxation in the Fight Against Illicit Financial Flows

This position paper recommends the stand that representatives from civil society from Africa should take on the fight against Illicit Financial Flows (IFF). It is envisaged that tackling IFF from Africa requires reform of international corporate taxation. This tax system has many loopholes, and Transnational Corporations (TNCs) have exploited them. Profit shifting, and transfer pricing remain the primary drivers of corporate tax practices that facilitate IFF. Yet, these practices have not been adequately dealt with at both the international and regional fora. Estimates from the African Development Bank reveal that IFF have resulted in corporate tax losses in excess of a trillion dollars from Africa since 1980. The Tax Justice Network (TJN) and the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department estimate these losses at $500bn and $200bn respectively per annum. In 2015, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) published its High Level Panel Report on Illicit Financial Flows (HLP Report) in which it reported that Africa is losing more than $50 billion annually in IFFs. The Report asserted that this estimate may well fall short of reality because accurate data does not exist for all African countries, and these estimates often exclude some forms of IFFs that by nature are secret and cannot be properly estimated, such as proceeds of bribery and trafficking of drugs, people and firearms as well as corruption. In July 2018, at the High Level Policy Dialogue on Development Planning in Africa the Head of Development Planning and Statistics at the Economic Commission for Africa reported that $100 billion a year is illegally earned, transferred, or used due to mis-invoicing. These Tax losses resulting from IFF have become too serious to neglect anymore.

Revenue Administration: Short-Term Measures to Increase Customs Revenue in Low-Income and Fragile Countries

This note discusses administrative measures that can be implemented by customs administrations of low-income and fragile countries in a short period (about a year) to improve traders’ compliance and improve revenue collection. These suggested actions have been identified based on the experience acquired through the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Fiscal Affairs Department’s (FAD) technical assistance (TA), particularly the findings and recommendations of TA missions to sub-Saharan African countries. Strengthening low-capacity customs administrations requires structural reforms to support the effective implementation of defined strategies. Developing core operational functions such as risk management, audit, investigation and intelligence are good examples of such reforms. Modernizing human resource management policies or achieving a fully automated environment in a customs administration are longer-term reform projects. Long-term reforms are not addressed here. The note focuses on targeted actions with a potential to increase trade revenue in the short term, and which can be taken without mobilizing large resources or engaging in a broad reorganization. It is hoped that the suggestions in this note will help stakeholders, including country authorities, customs management, donors and TA partners, area departments of the IMF, FAD, and the IMF regional TA centers, identify, design, and implement short-term changes in customs administrations. If implemented effectively, these changes should contribute to a noticeable improvement of revenue performance.

Revenue Administration: Short-Term Measures to Increase Customs Revenue in Low-Income and Fragile Countries

This note discusses administrative measures that can be implemented by customs administrations of low-income and fragile countries in a short period (about a year) to improve traders’ compliance and improve revenue collection. These suggested actions have been identified based on the experience acquired through the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Fiscal Affairs Department’s (FAD) technical assistance (TA), particularly the findings and recommendations of TA missions to sub-Saharan African countries. Strengthening low-capacity customs administrations requires structural reforms to support the effective implementation of defined strategies. Developing core operational functions such as risk management, audit, investigation and intelligence are good examples of such reforms. Modernizing human resource management policies or achieving a fully automated environment in a customs administration are longer-term reform projects. Long-term reforms are not addressed here. The note focuses on targeted actions with a potential to increase trade revenue in the short term, and which can be taken without mobilizing large resources or engaging in a broad reorganization. It is hoped that the suggestions in this note will help stakeholders, including country authorities, customs management, donors and TA partners, area departments of the IMF, FAD, and the IMF regional TA centers, identify, design, and implement short-term changes in customs administrations. If implemented effectively, these changes should contribute to a noticeable improvement of revenue performance.

Estimating the Corporate Income Tax Gap: The RA-GAP Methodology

The IMF Fiscal Affairs Department's Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program (RA-GAP) aims to provide a quantitative analysis of the tax gap between potential revenues and actual collections, and this technical note explains the concept of the tax gap for corporate income tax (CIT), and the methodology to estimate CIT gaps. It includes detailed steps to derive the potential CIT base and liability with careful consideration for the theoretical differences between the coverage of statistical macroeconomic data and the actual tax base of CIT, and then compare the estimated results with actual declarations and revenues. Although the estimated gaps following the approach will have margins of errors, it has the advantage of using available data without additional costs of collection and suits initial evaluations of overall CIT noncompliance in a country.

Expenditure Assessment Tool

This manual presents the Expenditure Assessment Tool (EAT), which helps assess expenditures for any specific country. EAT uses the commonly available software program Excel and has been designed by Expenditure Policy Division at Fiscal Affairs Department at IMF. The information EAT provides can be very useful in the evaluation of government spending and in the identification of areas where there may be room to increase spending efficiency or rationalize spending. The evaluation is done through benchmarking of spending—levels, composition and outcomes—against regional and income comparators. The focus is on both the economic and functional classification of expenditures. The application of the tool to spending in Argentina is presented as an illustration.

The Revenue Administration-Gap Analysis Program: An Analytical Framework for Excise Duty Gap Estimation

The IMF Fiscal Affairs Department’s Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program (RA-GAP) assists revenue administrations from IMF member countries in monitoring taxpayer compliance through tax gap analysis. The RA-GAP analytical framework for estimating excise gaps presented in this Technical Note sets out the steps and data required for comprehensive top-down gap estimates based on a comparison of actual collections to potential collections, which is estimated from consumption (or use) and expenditure of excise commodities. The note outlines the motivation for, and different approaches to, excise gap estimation; and identifies the design criteria for robust gap estimates. The note was jointly produced by RA-GAP team and the Slovak Republic’s Institute for Financial Policy, piloting the framework for the mineral oils excise gap in Slovakia.

The Revenue Administration-Gap Analysis Program: Model and Methodology for Value-Added Tax Gap Estimation

The IMF Fiscal Affairs Department’s Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program (RA-GAP) assists revenue administrations from IMF member countries in monitoring taxpayer compliance through tax gap analysis. The RA-GAP methodology for estimating the VAT gap presented in this Technical Note has some distinct advantages over commonly used methodologies. By using a value-added approach to estimating potential VAT revenues, as compared to the more traditional final consumption approach used by most countries undertaking VAT gap estimation, the RA-GAP methodology can provide VAT compliance gap estimates on a sector-by-sector basis, which assists revenue administrations to better target compliance efforts to close the gap. In addition, the RA-GAP methodology uses a unique measurement for actual VAT revenues, which isolates changes in revenue performance that might be due to cash management (e.g., delays in refunds) from those due to actual changes in taxpayer compliance.

Assessing Fiscal Space - An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations

Fiscal space is a multi-dimensional concept reflecting whether a government can raise spending or lower taxes without endangering market access and debt sustainability. Making such a determination requires a comprehensive approach considering, among other things, initial economic and structural conditions, market access, the level and trajectory of public debt, present and future financing needs, and dynamic analysis of the liquidity and solvency of the fiscal position under alternative policies. Balancing these considerations involves careful analysis and judgment. Fund staff has over the years developed a variety of indicators to inform assessments of fiscal space in bilateral and multilateral surveillance. The Fund’s core operational framework for such analysis is the debt sustainability framework, which includes a number of indicators, while allowing room for staff judgment. Surveillance also relies importantly on indicators developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD)––including those that have been used in the internal Vulnerability Exercise and Fiscal Monitors––while more recent methods based on fiscal stress tests and probabilistic approaches proposed in IMF (2016) are also promising. In addition, teams have used scenario analysis and general equilibrium modeling approaches to evaluate fiscal policy choices and their implications for sustainability. When applied to fiscal space, each indicator and approach has pros and cons and none covers all the relevant factors. Ultimately, therefore, assessing fiscal space requires judgment, informed by a broad range of tools. This note seeks to bring together various approaches developed by Fund staff to outline a consistent set of considerations and indicators to help inform assessments of fiscal space, especially for advanced and emerging markets. The intent is to facilitate continued consistency between country team assessments by providing some common considerations and approaches to inform their judgment. The proposed framework will support Fund surveillance and policy advice going forward, informing discussions of the appropriate fiscal stance at all stages of the economic cycle.

Fiscal Analysis of Resource Industries: (FARI Methodology)

This manual introduces key concepts and methodology used by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) in its fiscal analysis of resource industries (FARI) framework. Proper evaluation of fiscal regimes for extractive industries (EI) requires economic and financial analysis at the project level, and FARI is an analytical tool that allows such fiscal regime design and evaluation. The FARI framework has been primarily used in FAD’s advisory work on fiscal regime design: it supports calibration of fiscal parameters, sensitivity analysis, and international comparisons. In parallel to that, FARI has also evolved into a revenue forecasting tool, allowing IMF economists and government officials to estimate the composition and timing of expected revenue streams from the EI sector, analyze revenue management issues (including quantification of fiscal rules), and better integrate the EI sector in the country macroeconomic frameworks. Looking forward, the model presents a useful tool for revenue administration practitioners, allowing them to compare actual, realized revenues with model results in tax gap analysis.

Austerity versus Stimulus? Understanding Fiscal Policy Change at the International Monetary Fund Since the Great Recession

Since 2008, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has become more open to the use of discretionary fiscal stimulus packages to deal with recessions, while changing its doctrine on the timing and content of fiscal consolidation. The article traces this evolution of the Fund's doctrine to staff politics, more diverse thinking in mainstream economics, and a careful framing of the message through the use of mainstream macroeconomic models. To map the changing contours of institutional views on fiscal policy through 2008–2013, the article undertakes a detailed content analysis of official publications from the Fiscal Affairs Department and the Research Department. The connection between these shifts and significant personnel shake‐ups is demonstrated through an extensive biographical analysis of the authors of all IMF studies cited in the official reports of the two departments. The findings contribute to the emerging debate on the sources of intellectual and policy change in international economic organizations.

Update on the Fiscal Transparency Initiative

This paper provides an update on staff’s work on a new Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC) and experiences with the initial pilot Fiscal Transparency Evaluations (FTE), the ground work for which was laid in a 2012 paper “Fiscal Transparency, Accountability, and Risk.” Both are part of ongoing efforts by the Fiscal Affairs Department, in cooperation with other departments, to strengthen the Fund’s fiscal surveillance and capacity building. The new FTC and FTE reflect the lessons of the recent crisis, incorporate developments in international standards, and build on feedback from consultations with stakeholders.

Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold?

Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF, we find no evidence of any particular debt threshold above which medium-term growth prospects are dramatically compromised. Furthermore, we find the debt trajectory can be as important as the debt level in understanding future growth prospects, since countries with high but declining debt appear to grow equally as fast as countries with lower debt. Notwithstanding this, we find some evidence that higher debt is associated with a higher degree of output volatility.

Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold?

Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF, we find no evidence of any particular debt threshold above which medium-term growth prospects are dramatically compromised. Furthermore, we find the debt trajectory can be as important as the debt level in understanding future growth prospects, since countries with high but declining debt appear to grow equally as fast as countries with lower debt. Notwithstanding this, we find some evidence that higher debt is associated with a higher degree of output volatility.

Report on Fiscal Safeguards Pilots

This paper reports on the results of a pilot exercise on fiscal safeguards conducted by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) during FY2013. The exercise was launched following an independent review of the existing safeguards policy in 2010 in which many Directors encouraged staff to highlight fiscal safeguards risks in cases where a substantial portion of the resources provided by the Fund for balance of payments support is channeled to state treasuries for budget purposes. Pilot fiscal safeguards exercises were conducted for five countries: Antigua and Barbuda, Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, and Kyrgyz Republic.

Moldova - Technical Assistance Report on Taking Compliance Management Further

This report concerns the delivery of a tax administration mission to Moldova during February 8 – 21, 2012 by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) of the IMF as a component of implementing FAD's technical assistance strategy for Southeast Europe.

Fiscal Safeguards

This paper notifies the Executive Board of a pilot exercise for fiscal safeguards. The pilot will be conducted by the Fiscal Affairs Department and will cover a limited number of large budget financing cases over the next twelve months. Contrary to the existing safeguards assessment for central banks, participation in this exercise will be voluntary but will follow similar procedures in terms of confidentiality.