Finnish Parliamentary Elections Research Articles

Personalized Politics in Traditional and Social Media: The Case of the 2019 Finnish Parliamentary Elections

Personalization of politics is a well-established field of research, yet not much is known about how the phenomenon has been influenced by the increased use of social media as a tool for political communication. In this research we analyze media personalization in newspapers and on social media posts of parties and party leaders during the 2019 Finnish parliamentary elections. Combining quantitative and qualitative content analysis, we find that a) personalized content was more common in newspapers than on social media, and b) the contexts of personalized content were largely similar regardless of media type, suggesting it may be more relevant to speak of “hybrid media personalization” rather than “traditional media personalization” and “social media personalization”. These findings are linked to broader discussions on personalization of politics and the use of social media as a political communication tool.

The Role of Social Media Platforms in Forecasting Elections: A Comparison of Twitter and Facebook

Prior literature shows that social media could be used to forecast political elections. Most studies have focused on a single social media platform, and few studies have explored the use of social media data across multiple platforms to make election predictions. Though candidates’ personal attributes have also been suggested as critical factors affecting election results, there has been little research into the interacting effect of social media and candidate attributes in predicting elections. To address the research gap, this paper investigates the role of two different social media platforms, Twitter and Facebook, in forecasting the 2019 Finnish parliamentary elections, and how candidates’ political experience moderates the role of the two platforms in predicting elections. The findings show that both the number of Facebook likes and the number of Twitter followers are associated with the election outcome positively. Political experience of candidates moderates the association between the number of Facebook likes and election outcomes as well as the association between the number of Twitter followers and election outcomes. This research adds to the discussion on how social media can predict election results. It considers both different social media platforms and the roles of the candidate attributes.

Results of the Finnish parliamentary elections and their possible impact on Russian-Finnish relations

The article examines the results of the next parliamentary elections in Finland, which took place on April 2, 2023. The author assesses the performance of the main political parties in the period since the previous elections and considers the key positions of the election campaigns of the parties that passed to parliament in 2023. In order to identify the dynamics of changes in the political situation, the author conducts a comparative analysis of the results of the leading political parties in Finland in the elections of 2019 and 2023, and characterizes the parties that were represented in the parliament in the period from 2019 to 2023. The author considers the results of the government formed in December 2019 headed by the leader of the Social Democratic Party S.Marin, the possible reasons for the preservation of the high rating of the head of this government among the population and its impact on the course of the election campaign in 2023. Special attention is paid to the position of the Finnish leadership and leading political parties regarding Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. Finland's support of anti-Russian measures and NATO membership has destroyed many years of trade and economic ties between the countries. The forecast for the further development of Russian-Finnish relations cannot be called optimistic: the mutual cooling of recent years is likely to continue. There is a chance to build new ties between Russia and Finland, but it requires certain efforts and counter steps from both countries.

In the right place, at the right time: Opportunity structures and candidates’ chances of getting elected for the first time

The foundational principle of representative democracy is that legislative elites can be replaced in elections. Yet, first-time parliamentary entries have received little attention. We present the first systematic attempt to examine the conditions of first-time parliamentary entry in multimember district PR systems. We introduce an overlooked explanatory factor, candidates' short-term opportunity structure. While controlling for personal vote-earning attributes (PVEAs), we examine how competitive context shapes newcomers' chances in a pure OLPR system where party elites cannot skew competition between candidates. Our register-based analysis of candidacies in seven Finnish parliamentary elections (1995–2019, n = 7548) shows that while personal qualities enhance candidates’ chances, first-time entry is restricted by the competitive context, especially the decisions of incumbent MPs. The strong impact of exceptional PVEAs suggests that other “big fish” candidates may also shape competitive contexts. Overall, the study indicates that electoral competition can be rather restricted even in the most competitive electoral systems.

With pulling ties, electoral participation flies: factors mobilising turnout among non-resident Finnish voters

Increasingly many citizens residing abroad maintain connections to their country of origin and follow its national elections. Considering that this group constitutes a growing share of the national electorate, it is essential to better understand factors that motivate electoral participation. In this study, we explore the role of economic, social and cultural ties in a unified analysis of turnout among Finnish citizens residing abroad. We rely on individual-level register data that cover the entire Finnish expatriate electorate (n = 96,290) and match their personal background characteristics (e.g. property ownership, length of stay abroad, language) with official turnout from the 2019 Finnish parliamentary elections on the bases of personal identification codes. In line with the theoretical expectations, the results provide strong empirical evidence that non-resident citizens who maintain connections to the country of origin are more likely to vote in homeland elections.

Functions of Hybrid Media: How Parties and Their Leaders Use Traditional Media in Their Social Media Campaign Communication

Political campaign communication has become increasingly hybrid and the ability to create synergies between older and newer media is now a prerequisite for running a successful campaign. Nevertheless, beyond establishing that parties and individual politicians use social media to gain visibility in traditional media, not much is known about how political actors use the hybrid media system in their campaign communication. At the same time, the personalization of politics, shown to have increased in the media coverage of politics, has gained little attention in the context of today’s hybrid media environment. In this research we analyze one aspect of hybrid media campaign communication, political actors’ use of traditional media in their social media campaign communication. Through a quantitative content analysis of the Facebook, Twitter and Instagram posts of Finnish parties and their leaders published during the 2019 Finnish parliamentary elections, we find that much of this hybridized campaign communication was personalized. In addition, we show that parties and their leaders used traditional media for multiple purposes, the most common of which was gaining positive visibility, pointing to strategic considerations. The results have implications for both the scholarship on hybrid media systems and personalization of politics.

Ideological mavericks or party herd? The effect of candidates’ ideological positions on intra-party success

Political candidates' ideological positions have been used to explain success in inter-party competition, but little is known about how they impact success in intra-party competition. Here, candidates' positions on the Left–Right and GAL–TAN dimensions are analysed in three Finnish parliamentary elections (2011, 2015, 2019). Candidates' ideological positions are measured in terms of their ideological distance from their own party's median candidate. Absolute ideological distances between candidates and their party's median candidate decrease candidates' preference votes. Furthermore, the effects are contingent on the general ideological position of the candidate's party. However, these interactions do not follow any clear pattern, as more rightist candidates in right-wing parties and more green-alternative-libertarian candidates in traditional-authoritarian-nationalist parties all experience a decrease in their preference votes. This effect is large enough to be a decisive factor in intra-party competition between the last candidate that was elected and the first one that was not.

Platformed Interactions: How Social Media Platforms Relate to Candidate–Constituent Interaction During Finnish 2015 Election Campaigning

Interaction between candidates and constituents via social media is a well-studied domain. The article takes this research further through a synthesis with platform studies, emerging scholarship that applies a critical perspective to the role of digital platforms in society. Examination of candidate–constituent interaction via Twitter and Facebook during the 2015 Finnish parliamentary elections revealed that the types of interaction differ between the two platforms: Facebook was used for formal campaigning and for praising and expressing support, while Twitter was utilized for information and for seeking and sharing opinions. An additional finding is that interaction approaches may be platform-specific, with socio-emotional functions being employed more often by candidates than constituents on Facebook while no such difference existed for Twitter. On the basis of the implication that platforms have a critical role in the nature of candidate–constituent social media interaction, we discuss the implications of platformed interaction for the democratic process, suggesting that campaign strategy may exploit it in ways that may even necessitate regulation. Furthermore, scholars of social media interaction might need to consider the broader ramifications of the findings, and contributions to theory that acknowledge platforms’ part in interaction may be needed.

The Finnish Parliamentary Election of 2019: Results and Voting Patterns

The Finnish Parliamentary Election of 2019: Results and Voting Patterns

Do Surveys Overestimate or Underestimate Socioeconomic Differences in Voter Turnout? Evidence from Administrative Registers

AbstractSurveys generally overestimate the overall level of voter turnout in elections due to both the misreporting of voting and nonresponse. It is sometimes argued that socioeconomic differences in turnout are exaggerated in surveys because social desirability has a more pronounced effect on eligible voters in more advantaged socioeconomic positions. However, the contribution of nonresponse bias has not been taken into consideration in these assessments. Using a register-linked survey with information on the education, occupational social class, income, and voting in the 2015 Finnish parliamentary elections of both respondents and nonrespondents, this study shows that nonresponse bias leads to not only a larger overestimation of the overall level of turnout than social desirability, but also an underestimation of educational, social class, and income-related differences in the propensity to vote. Socioeconomic differences in the probability of voting in register-based data were at least two-thirds larger than differences obtained when using standard survey techniques. This finding implies that socioeconomic inequality in electoral participation is a more pressing social problem than previous evidence might indicate.

Sibling Similarities and the Importance of Parental Socioeconomic Position in Electoral Participation

AbstractWe studied the impact of an individual’s family and community background on their voting propensity in the 2015 Finnish parliamentary elections by employing a sibling design on an individual-level register-based dataset. The results showed that a quarter of the total variance in voter turnout was shared between siblings. Considering the dichotomous nature of the turnout variable, this implies that background has a strong effect which is almost comparable to sibling similarity in education. Parental socioeconomic position and voting, in turn, are equally important factors by explaining one-third of this shared part of the likelihood of voting. Mothers and fathers make roughly equal contributions. The results suggest that future studies of inter-generational effects in political participation, whenever possible, should use information from both maternal and paternal characteristics and multiple indicators of parental socioeconomic position simultaneously. We conclude by underlining that as people cannot choose their background, voting propensity is strongly influenced by factors beyond an individual’s own control, which is problematic for the functioning of inclusive democracy and equality of opportunity.

Freedom of choice, gender equality, or employment promotion? Finnish party positions on childcare in the light of election manifestos 2015

The principle of freedom of choice in childcare matters has been a central element of Finnish family policy since the 1980s and is something that makes the country unique in an international comparison. One the one hand, this principle has been manifested as a legislated right for parents, notably mothers, to choose paid work supported by the use of public childcare. On the other hand, it has also given parents with children under three the right to stay at home with their children and to receive a child home care allowance during this period. This dualism has been widely popular among parents and has also been seen by most leading parties as something that is good for families. However, since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, this system has faced increasing criticism from some experts and politicians, which has made the principle of freedom of choice, and especially the child home care allowance/leave, susceptible to renegotiation. This article investigates how the principle of freedom of choice was politicized by eight leading parties during the Finnish parliamentary election campaign in 2015, through an analysis of election manifestos. First, we analyse to what extent this principle was politicized, and by whom. Secondly, we study how the principle was framed. The findings show that the principle of freedom of choice was a rather politicized topic, creating a cleavage between conservative and leftist/liberal parties. Moreover, they indicate a renegotiation of this principle in favour of higher parental employment promotion and gender equality.

Facebook likes and public opinion: Predicting the 2015 Finnish parliamentary elections

Predicting an electoral outcome using ‘big’ social media data is a new research theme that has emerged due to the exponential growth of social media. Mainstream research in this field focuses on Twitter and Facebook. This study examines the extent to which Facebook Likes can be used to predict electoral outcomes. The study was conducted in Finland, where 2146 candidates across the country competed for the 200 seats in the Finnish Parliament in 2015. The primary objective of this study was to analyze the degree to which Facebook Likes could be used to predict the outcome of the 2015 Finnish parliamentary election. A complete candidate-level dataset was compiled from Facebook and other sources to analyze the relationship between Facebook Likes and the vote shares of candidates. The initial sample contained 2.7million Facebook Likes, which were gathered directly from candidates' official Facebook pages. The prediction based on Facebook Likes was less accurate than using incumbency and traditional polling on whether a candidate would be elected. However, Facebook Likes and votes were found to have a significant positive relationship. Hence, social media data, like Facebook data, might be a significant but weak indicator of electoral success.

Explaining Social Class Inequality in Voter Turnout: The Contribution of Income and Health

Occupation‐based social class is an important, yet under‐explored, factor in electoral participation. In this article, social class differences in voter turnout over time are measured, and how two other resources – namely income and health – mediate or modify this relationship is analysed. The analysis is based on an individual‐level register‐based 11 percent sample of the entire electorate in the 1999 Finnish parliamentary elections, and secondarily on smaller register‐based samples in the 2012 presidential and municipal elections. Results show that income mediates part of the effects of social class on voting, while social class and utilised health indicators exert mainly independent effects on turnout. Social class differences remain largely stable in all income and hospital care groups, except that no differences between classes are observed among those most severely affected by health problems. Results are also mostly similar between those of working age and the older population, and between men and women, and remain stable over time and in different types of elections. The findings imply that social class should be taken account in theoretical and empirical models of turnout.

How voter turnout varies between different chronic conditions? A population-based register study.

While poor self-rated health is known to decrease an individual's propensity to vote, disaggregation of the components of health on turnout has thus far received only little attention. This study deepens on the understanding of such relationships by examining the association between chronic diseases and voting. The study uses an individual-level register-based data set that contains an 11% random sample of the entire electorate in the 1999 Finnish parliamentary elections. With information on hospital discharge diagnoses and reimbursements for drugs prescribed, we identify persons with chronic hospital-treated diseases (coronary heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma, depression, cancer, psychotic mental disease, diabetes, cerebrovascular disease, rheumatic disease, epilepsy, arthrosis, alcoholism, dementia, atherosclerosis, Parkinson's disease, other degenerative brain diseases, multiple sclerosis and kidney disease). After adjusting for gender, age, education, occupational class, income, partnership status, cohabitation with underaged children and hospitalisation during Election Day, neurodegenerative brain diseases had the strongest negative relationship with voting (dementia OR=0.20, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.22; others up to OR=0.70). Alcoholism (OR=0.66) and mental disorders also had a negative association (depression OR=0.91; psychotic mental disease OR=0.79), whereas cancer and COPD/asthma had a positive association (both OR=1.05). Having more than one condition at a time further decreased voting probability. By showing how different health conditions are related to voter turnout, this study provides essential information for identifying gaps in the potential for political participation and for further inquiries aiming to develop models that explain the link between health and voting probability.

Expanding the Online Political Demos but Maintaining the Status Quo? Internet and Social Media Use by Finnish Voters Prior to Elections, 2003–15

Though reinforcement/mobilisation theories regarding the impact of the Internet on citizens’ political engagement are predictive, there are few longitudinal studies on how the profile of the citizens using the Internet for political purposes has changed and how this relates to such theoretical perspectives. Using survey data from four Finnish parliamentary elections, 2003–15, this longitudinal study examines the evolution of the predictors of belonging to the segment of citizens who extensively engage in searching for political information online during the elections. Additionally, the research longitudinally studies the evolution of the drivers of citizens deeming online sources as important for informing their voting decisions. In light of demographic and resource‐based traits, a mobilisation trend is detected across time in the analyses. As to factors concerning attitudes and orientation to politics, however, a more evident reinforcement trend has emerged. These patterns are also evident when examining social media engagement through searching for political information during campaigns. Although the Internet and social media are becoming important for a demographically increasingly diverse group of citizens, especially the young, it is those already predisposed for doing so who have, over time, engaged politically to an increasing degree through these channels.

Political Socialization and Voting

Status transmission theory represents an important challenge to social learning theory, but its generalizability may be limited to countries where there is a strong intergenerational correlation in educational attainment. Based on a unique data set that matches register data from the 1999 Finnish parliamentary elections with individual-level data provided by Statistics Finland for a sample of eighteen- to thirty-year-olds and their parents, we assess these two explanations for unequal turnout. We first show that parental education does affect the turnout of young adults, as predicted by status transmission theory. However, parental voting rather than the transmission of education from parent to child appears to be the more important mediating factor. We then go on to demonstrate that there is a strong association between parental voting and the turnout of their adult children that is independent of the effects of parental education. More detailed tests of a number of implications derived from social learning theory reinforce our conclusion that the theory offers a superior explanation in countries where there is not a strong parent–child link in educational attainment.

Returns to Office in National and Local Politics

We study the returns to political office using data from Finnish parliamentary elections in 1970-2007 and municipal elections in 1996-2008. The discontinuity of electoral outcomes in individual candidate votes allows us to estimate the causal effect of being electedon subsequent income. Getting elected to parliament increases annual earnings initially by about 20 000 euro, but most of this effect fades out over time. Getting elected to a municipal council has a positive effect of about 1000 euro on subsequent annual earnings.

Owning protest but sharing distrust? Confidence in the political system and anti-political-establishment party choice in the Finnish 2011 parliamentary elections

In this study we explore to what extent did anti-political-establishment voting mobilized manifest political distrust in the 2011 Finnish parliamentary elections. In particular, we seek to determine whether the channels of manifest political distrust vary for different forms of political trust. Individual-level data from the Finnish National Election Study (FNES 2011, N = 1,268) is analyzed by applying multinomial logistic regressions. The results show that antipolitical-establishment voting effectively channels both specific and diffuse political distrust, but this dissatisfaction is not reflected as anti-incumbency voting. Furthermore, it seems that a significant amount of latent political distrust, which is not explicitly expressed by party preference at electoral polls, exists in the electorates of several governmental and opposition parties.

Mapping the Online Campaign Audience: An Analysis of Online Participation and Its Mobilizing Potential in the 2011 Finnish Parliamentary Campaign

This article analyzes Internet use in conjunction with the 2011 Finnish parliamentary election. The aim was to examine online participation and aspects of its mobilizing potential by studying both the extent and the ways citizens used the Internet for participatory activities. The analysis utilizes survey data from the Finnish National Election Study survey. The findings show that a certain group of citizens uses the Internet in a broad and expressive way. This use is also reflected in how they participate online and offline, as well as how they form the informational basis for their voting choices. Moreover, to some extent, use of the Internet also appears to indirectly mobilize citizens beyond the Internet.