Finite-fault Model Research Articles

RADARSAT-2 DInSAR and GNSS-Derived Finite Fault Model of the 2012 Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii Earthquake

The Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii earthquake occurred on 28 October 2012, generating up to 13 m tsunami waves and 3 m run-up along the British Columbia coastline. Despite the magnitude of the earthquake and tsunami, damages were minor due to the lack of vulnerable infrastructure in the remote area. Previous finite fault models were derived from GNSS, seismic and tsunami data, but the uncertainty remained high due to the limited number of seismic and GNSS stations near the epicenter. In this study, finite fault models were developed using RADARSAT-2 interferograms and previously published GNSS data. These models defined the location of the fault and provided a detailed slip distribution with a high degree of certainty. The results confirmed that the main slip was located on the subduction fault interface between the Pacific and North American plates, west of the Queen Charlotte Fault. The estimated moment magnitude of 7.88–7.93 is slightly larger than the previously reported moment magnitude of around 7.8, due to the capture of postseismic deformation in the interferograms. Overall, the study provides an improved finite fault slip model for the Haida Gwaii earthquake and highlights the importance of utilizing remote sensing data for studying earthquakes in remote areas.

The effect of earthquake fault rupture kinematics on tsunami generation: a numerical study of real events

Summary The study is devoted to the effect of the fault rupture kinematics in the earthquake source on tsunami generation. Sixteen events of 1992–2021 years are investigated. For each event, the kinematic tsunami source (bottom motion during the earthquake) and the static tsunami source (permanent bottom deformation) were calculated using the Finite Fault Models provided by the U.S. Geological Survey. For both sources, numerical tsunami simulations were carried out within the framework of linear long-wave theory. Comparison of the simulation results showed that in ten out of sixteen events, the energy of tsunami excited by the kinematic source is greater than that excited by the static source. The maximum energy amplification (9.1 per cent) is observed at the minimum ratio of average rupture velocity to long-wave velocity. The Illapel 2015 event has been investigated more thoroughly using dispersive tsunami models jagurs and cptm. This investigation showed that the kinematic source causes a spatial redistribution of tsunami amplitudes and a noticeable amplification of the high-frequency component in the time series of tsunami height. At some points along the Chilean coast, the difference between the kinematic and static calculations is more than 2 m.

The 2024 Mw 7.0 Wushi Earthquake in Southern Tianshan Convergent Zone: Finite-Fault Model for the Coseismic Rupture and Aftershock

Abstract On 22 January 2024, an Mw 7.0 earthquake struck the oblique thrust Maidan fault (MDF) at the boundary between the Southern Tianshan and Tarim basin, making it the largest earthquake on the fault in the last 100 yr. Here, we use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) to retrieve coseismic and aftershock deformation caused by the earthquake and then constrain fault geometry and slip distribution. Line-of-sight InSAR observations revealed a coseismic deformation area of 70 km × 60 km with a maximum value of ∼0.8 m and also captured the deformation from the aftershock event seven days after the mainshock. Our preferred two-segment coseismic fault model ruptures the MDF locked segment and deeper regions, exhibiting a homogeneous elliptical rupture with a maximum slip of ∼2.7 m on a rectangular plane with a dip angle of ∼60°, a length of ∼55 km, and a depth between 5 and 20 km. The aftershock formed a rupture plane of 10×8 km2 with the maximum slip of ∼0.3 m, causing slip in the shallow area of the fault where the coseismic ruptures were smaller, and supplementarily released the stress in the shallow part of the fault. The strong earthquake (Mw 7) return period on MDF inferred from the interseismic slip rate is 170–200 yr. Oblique thrust slip revealed by the slip distribution model is the result of long-term absorption of oblique convergence strain in the Southern Tianshan by the MDF and then concentrated release. The 2024 event resulted in a 60 km unruptured segment on the MDF being in a stress-triggering zone, increasing the potential seismic hazard, in contrast to the delayed seismicities on 100 km region of the southern Kalping fault (KPF).

Modified stochastic finite-fault modelling based on the rupture process: a case study of the 2013 Mw 6.7 Lushan earthquake in China

Modified stochastic finite-fault modelling based on the rupture process: a case study of the 2013 Mw 6.7 Lushan earthquake in China

Spatial correlation assessment of multiple earthquake intensity measures using physics-based simulated ground motions

Predictive models for spatial correlation play an effective role in the assessment of seismic risk associated with distributed infrastructure and building portfolios. However, existing models often rely on simplified approaches, assuming isotropy and stationarity. This paper verifies these assumptions by presenting a comprehensive study using a database of 3D physics-based simulated broadband ground motions for Istanbul, generated by the SPEED software. The results reveal significant event-to-event variability and nonstationary and anisotropic characteristics of spatial correlation influenced by source, path, and site effects. The development of nonstationary correlation models requires exploring influential metrics beyond spatial proximity and gaining a deep understanding of their impact, which is the focus of this study. Analysis of the spatial correlations of peak ground displacement, peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, and response spectral accelerations at different periods, employing both stationary and nonstationary correlation modelling methods and considering the finite fault model, indicates that the slip distribution pattern, direction and distance of station pairs relative to earthquake rupture, soil softness, and homogeneity of soil properties significantly influence the spatial correlations of near-field earthquake ground motions. Implementation of the introduced parameters in predictive spatial correlation models enhances the precision of regional seismic hazard assessments.

The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model

US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used extensively for seismic design regulations in the United States and earthquake scenario development, as well as risk assessment and mitigation for both buildings and infrastructure. This 2023 update of the long-term, time-independent Alaska NSHM includes substantial changes to both the earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) and ground motion models (GMMs). The ERF includes numerous additions to the finite-fault model, considers two deformation models, and introduces updated declustering and smoothing algorithms in the gridded background seismicity model. For the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone, megathrust earthquakes occur on an updated structural and segmentation model, and the moment magnitude (M) 8+ rupture and rate model include a logic tree branch that considers slip rates derived from geodetic models of interface coupling. The megathrust model considers multiple models of down-dip width, and magnitudes are computed using newly developed scaling relations. For subduction intraslab events and subduction interface events with M < 7, the 2023 update uses a smoothed seismicity model with rupture depths derived from Slab2. The 2023 model updates GMMs in all tectonic settings using the recently published Next Generation Attenuation Subduction (NGA-Sub) GMMs for subduction interface and intraslab events, and the NGA-West2 GMMs for active crustal settings. Collectively, additions and updates to the Alaska NSHM result in hazard increases across most of south-central Alaska relative to the previous model, published in 2007. These changes are primarily due to the adoption of updated rate models for the large-magnitude interface events and the NGA-Sub GMMs that have much higher aleatory variability (sigma), consistent with global observations, and that include models of epistemic uncertainty.

Seismic performance of underground subway station structure near the strike-slip fault by the developed hybrid IBE-FEM method

To investigate the influence of strike-slip faults on the seismic responses of underground structures, based on the single-layer potential theory of the boundary element concept and the fault-site-underground structure coupling mechanisms, we proposed a hybrid indirect boundary element-finite element numerical method (IBE-FEM) to simulate efficiently the seismic response of the entire process from the near seismogenic-fault to the underground structure. Initially, based on the kinematic finite-fault model, the seismic wavefield of an overlying soft-soil sedimentary-layer site subjected to strike-slip faults with source parameters, such as rupture velocity, dip-angle, and upper-boundary burial depth, was solved using the indirect boundary element method (IBE). Subsequently, the accuracy of the IBE-FEM in predicting the site seismic wavefield was verified. On this basis, the influence laws of the source parameters and the fault-site coupling effects on the seismic performance of the structure were preliminarily investigated by establishing a numerical model of the nonlinear dynamic interaction system of a soil-underground structure. The results showed that the seismic responses of the underground structure located in the footwall far-fault region were more strongly affected by variations in the rupture velocity. The lateral deformation of the structure under the rupture velocity condition of bedrock shear-wave velocity (vs) was dramatically increased compared to sub-vs, and the lowest amplification is 59 %. Furthermore, the hanging wall and seismic damage concentration effects significantly impacted the structure located in a strike-slip fault site with a shallow-burial. This study provides a reliable and efficient analytical method for the seismic design of underground structures in complex near-fault regions.

The N-S direction strike-slip activities in the Pamir hinterland under oblique convergence: the 2015 and 2023 earthquakes

SUMMARY The prominent Pamir plateau holds considerable significance in comprehending the processes of Asian continental collisional orogeny. However, due to harsh natural conditions and low seismic activity within the Pamir hinterland, our understanding of this region remains deficient. Recent major events and the accumulation of geodetic observations present a rare opportunity for us to get insights into the tectonic activities and orogenic processes occurring in this region. First, employing Sentinel-1 and Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS)-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images, we acquire coseismic displacements associated with the most recent earthquakes in 2015 and 2023. Subsequently, we conduct the source models inversion with the constraints of surface displacements based on a finite-fault model. Our results reveal displacements ranging from −0.8 to 0.8 m for the 2015 Mw 7.2 Tajik earthquake and −0.25 to 0.25 m for the 2023 Mw 6.9 Murghob event, respectively. The optimal three-segment model for the 2015 event ruptured a fault length of 89 km with a surface rupture extending 59 km along the Sarez–Karakul fault (SKF), characterized predominantly by left-lateral strike-slip motion, with a maximum slip of 3.5 m. Meanwhile, our preferred uniform slip model suggests that the 2023 event ruptured an unmapped fault in the southern Pamir region with a strike angle of 31° and a dip angle of 76.8°. The distributed slip model indicates that the 2023 event ruptured a fault length of 32 km, resulting in an 8 km surface rupture. This event is characterized by left-lateral strike slip, with a peak slip of 2.2 m. Secondly, the Coulomb stress calculations demonstrate that the 2023 event was impeded by the 2015 event. Finally, interseismic Global Positioning System data revel a relative motion of 3.4–5.7 mm yr−1 in the N-S component and 3.2–3.8 mm yr−1 in the E-W component along the SKF in the Pamir hinterland, respectively. These N-S direction strike-slip activities and slip behaviours support an ongoing strong shear and extension in the Pamir regime, which is a response to the oblique convergence between the Indian and Eurasian plates.

Strong‐Motion Broadband Displacements From Collocated Ocean‐Bottom Pressure Gauges and Seismometers

AbstractDense and broad‐coverage ocean‐bottom observation networks enable us to obtain near‐fault displacement records associated with an offshore earthquake. However, simple integration of ocean‐bottom strong‐motion acceleration records leads to physically unrealistic displacement records. Here we propose a new method using a Kalman filter to estimate coseismic displacement waveforms using the collocated ocean‐bottom seismometers and pressure gauges. First, we evaluate our method using synthetic records and then apply it to an offshore Mw 6.0 event that generated a small tsunami. In both the synthetic and real cases, our method successfully estimates reasonable displacement waveforms. Additionally, we show that the computed waveforms improve the results of the finite fault modeling process. In other words, the proposed method will be useful for estimating the details of the rupture mechanism of offshore earthquakes as a complement to onshore observations.

Sensitivity Analysis of Finite Fault Model in Stochastic Ground Motion Simulations

Sensitivity Analysis of Finite Fault Model in Stochastic Ground Motion Simulations

Rapid Finite-Fault Models for the 2023 Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, Earthquake Sequence

Abstract In the immediate aftermath of devastating earthquakes such as in the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş sequence in southcentral Türkiye, key stakeholders and the public demand timely and accurate earthquake information. Especially for large events, finite-fault models provide important insights into the rupture process and enable interpretation of the observed ground shaking, which can improve situational awareness and facilitate rapid assessment of future hazards. Using strong-motion waveforms recorded during the Kahramanmaraş sequence, we simulate a real-time playback and calculate how a finite-source model computed with the Finite-fault rupture Detector (FinDer) algorithm would evolve for the Mw 7.8 Pazarcık, Mw 7.6 Elbistan, and Mw 6.4 Yayladağı earthquakes. Using template matching FinDer compares observed and predicted ground-motion acceleration amplitudes to determine the orientation and spatial extent of fault rupture. We test both generic crustal and fault-specific templates from ground-motion models and rupture geometries of the east Anatolian and Çardak–Sürgü faults. In the second step, we estimate the seismic slip along the source models from the backprojection of the seismic displacement amplitudes. The algorithms achieve excellent performance for all three earthquakes, and the final source models and slip profiles available within tens of seconds of the rupture nucleation match well with models computed days to weeks after the events occurred. The temporal evolution of the source models for the Pazarcık and Elbistan earthquakes suggests that FinDer can provide insight into the rupture kinematics of large earthquakes. Cascading instrument failures as well as power and data telemetry interruptions during the Pazarcık earthquake led to an early termination of signals at a significant number of near-source stations. We show that FinDer is robust enough to cope with this type of degradation in network performance that can occur in large earthquakes, in general.

The Distribution Pattern of Ground Movement and Co‐Seismic Landslides: A Case Study of the 5 September 2022 Luding Earthquake, China

AbstractMajor earthquakes can cause extensive landsliding that poses a major threat to both property and human lives. In addition to co‐seismically triggered ground failure, the earthquake‐affected region remains vulnerable to landslides due to loosened and unstable materials and structures. Many researchers have studied landslide distributions and their controlling factors after earthquakes, but the function of ground motion is unclear. To investigate the connection in a strike‐slip earthquake, we analyzed the 5 September 2022 Luding earthquake (Mw 6.6) in Sichuan Province, China. We interpreted remote‐sensing images to obtain the landslide distribution before and after the earthquake, calculated surface deformation from D‐InSAR data (pre‐ and post‐earthquake), utilized a point‐source model for the focal mechanism inversion, and then constructed a finite fault model for the rupture slip. There are clear differences in the landslide distributions on the two sides of the fault before and after the earthquake. The density of co‐seismic landslides on the west side of the fault exceeded that on the east side. The patterns of surface deformation and ground motion indicated that the areas with larger deformation and motion were associated with more landslides. Furthermore, the landslide size decreased with distance from the fault. A new finding is that co‐seismic landslides induced by strike‐slip earthquakes result in high landslide concentration on both sides of the fault, while previous studies find that co‐seismic landslides triggered by thrust earthquakes present a hanging wall concentrated distribution pattern. These findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the connection between ground movement patterns and landslide distributions.

Probability density evolution method based stochastic simulation of near-fault pulse-like ground motions

Quantifying the near-fault effect and establishing a reasonable model of near-fault pulse-like ground motions are particularly important for seismic design of structures in near-fault regions. Given the pronounced randomness associated with earthquakes, this study first proposes a novel stochastic model of near-fault pulse-like ground motions by combining the improved finite-fault model (IFFM) and the multivariate copula-based velocity-pulse model (CVPM). Further, a probability density evolution method (PDEM) based stochastic simulation method is developed, by which the model parameters can be determined in a unified probability space so as to ensure the consistency of two independent models. For illustrative purposes, the observed records collected from the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake are used to generate new stochastic ground motions set. Two ground motions sets based on classical stochastic simulation methods are also presented for comparison. Numerical results show that the proposed method for stochastic simulation of near-fault pulse-like ground motions is reliable; the statistics of peak ground accelerations and spectral characteristics of simulated samples are consistent with station records. Besides, the proposed method accommodates the noteworthy randomness and proportion consistency of components associated with near-fault pulse-like ground motions, making it suitable for the stochastic response and reliability analysis of seismic structures in near-fault regions. This superiority is challenging to classical stochastic simulation methods that lack reasonable consideration of randomness and correlation associated with model parameters.

Global seismic energy scaling relationships based on the type of faulting

Abstract. We derived scaling relationships for different seismic energy metrics for earthquakes around the globe with MW > 6.0 from 1990 to 2022. The seismic energy estimations were derived with two methodologies, the first based on the velocity flux integration and the second based on finite-fault models. In the first case, we analyzed 3331 reported seismic energies derived by integrating far-field waveforms. In the latter methodology, we used the total moment rate functions and the approximation of the overdamped dynamics to quantify seismic energy from 231 finite-fault models (Emrt and EO, EU, respectively). Both methodologies provide compatible energy estimates. The radiated seismic energies estimated from the slip models and integration of velocity records are also compared for different types of focal mechanisms (R, reverse; R-SS, reverse–strike-slip; SS, strike-slip; SS-R, strike-slip–reverse; SS-N, strike-slip–normal; N, normal; and N-SS, normal–strike-slip), and then used to derive converting scaling relations among the different energy types. Additionally, the behavior of radiated seismic energy (ER), energy-to-moment ratio (ER/M0), and apparent stress (τα) for different rupture types at a global scale is examined by considering depth variations in mechanical properties, such as seismic velocities, rock densities, and rigidities. For this purpose, we used a 1-D global velocity model. The ER/M0 ratio is, based on statistical t tests, largest for strike-slip earthquakes, followed by normal-faulting events, with the lowest values for reverse earthquakes for hypocentral depths < 90 km. Not enough data are available for statistical tests at deeper intervals except for the 90 to 120 km range, where we can satisfactorily conclude that ER/M0 for R-SS and SS-R types is larger than for N-type faulting, which also conforms to the previous assumption. In agreement with previous studies, our results exhibit a robust variation in τα with the focal mechanism. Regarding the behavior of τα with depth, our results agree with the existence of a bimodal distribution with two depth intervals where the apparent stress is maximum for normal-faulting earthquakes. At depths in the range of 180–240 km, τα for reverse earthquakes is higher than for normal-faulting events. We find the trend EU > Emrt > EO for all mechanism types based on statistical t tests. Finite-fault energy estimations also support focal mechanism dependence of apparent stress but only for shallow earthquakes (Z < 30 km). The slip distribution population used was too small to conclude that finite-fault energy estimations support the dependence of average apparent stress on rupture type at different depth intervals.

Ground-motion simulations using two-dimensional convolution condition adversarial neural network(2D-cGAN)

In this paper, an integrated framework based on conditional adversarial neural network (cGAN) is established to simulate ground motions for earthquake scenarios with different magnitude, distance, and local site conditions. A ground motion dataset is created for training the network, within which most data are observed accelerograms collected from PEER and gaps for certain magnitude-site conditions are filled with accelerograms simulated using stochastic finite-fault modeling. During the learning of cGAN, the dataset is classified first with multi-labels according to local site conditions, and the multi-labels are set to be the conditional information Y for the network. Effects of using one-dimensional convolution (Conv1D) and two-dimensional convolution (Conv2D) in cGAN are tested in terms of the time-domain and frequency-domain characteristics of the generated ground motion. The test proves the strengths of Conv2D in capturing high-dimensional temporal and spectral characteristics from one-dimensional time series of ground motion. Ground motions generated using 2D-cGAN network are compared to the measures predicted by widely-used ground motion prediction equations, through which the reliability of 2D-cGAN network on ground motion simulation is verified.

Stochastic simulation of earthquake ground motions based on improved finite-fault model

In the seismic reliability analysis of engineering structures, it is often necessary to adopt stochastic ground motions as inputs. However, the current methods used to generate stochastic samples, such as the spectral representation method, the spectral transfer method, the dynamic source method, the physical source method, and the comprehensive method, etc., are not very convincing since they do not contain the complete information of seismic occurrence and propagation. In this study, an improved finite-fault model for stochastic simulation of ground motions is proposed. Compared to existing stochastic finite-fault model, the improved model considers the propagation law of phase spectrum, local site effect, and the impact of wave velocity on the arrival time of seismic waves. Besides, identification and statistics of model parameters are carried out based on ground motion records. Reasonable samples of stochastic ground motions are then obtained. In addition, parameter sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine critical random variables, which reduces the complexity of stochastic simulation. Simulation results are compared with recorded accelerograms from the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. It is shown that the improved stochastic finite-fault model is reliable, and the acceleration response spectra of simulated samples are consistent with those of station records collected at various site classes and the design spectra.

Estimation of model parameters and simulation of earthquake ground motion by stochastic finite-fault modelling based on a modified slip-related corner frequency

Estimation of model parameters and simulation of earthquake ground motion by stochastic finite-fault modelling based on a modified slip-related corner frequency

Rupture process of the January 8, 2022, Menyuan M 6.9 earthquake

After the occurrence of destructively strong earthquakes, rapid acquisition of the source rupture process can provide important reference information for post-earthquake disaster relief and aftershock trend determination. An M 6.9 earthquake occurred in Menyuan County, Qinghai Province on January 8, 2022. The epicenter is located in the seismic gap in the middle section of the Haiyuan fault belt. Such a typical strong earthquake was taken as an example to investigate the rupture process of strong earthquakes. Three days after the earthquake, the InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) coseismic deformation field was obtained by Sentinel radar, indicating that the surface ruptured obviously. The southern block of the earthquake faces towards the satellite about 95 ​cm along the LOS (line of sight) direction, and the northern block is away from the satellite by ​∼ ​74 ​cm, consistent with the characteristic of left-lateral strike-slip motion. In this study, InSAR coseismic deformation data and far-field waveform data were used to jointly invert the earthquake rupture process, and a four-segment finite fault model was constructed by referring to the surface deformation. The inversion results show that the focal depth of the Menyuan earthquake is about 7 ​km, and the strike of the seismogenic fault is 89.0°, 104.0°, 119.0° and 131.0° from west to east, respectively. It is a high-dip left-lateral strike-slip earthquake event lasting about 14 ​s. The rupture propagation mode is a bilateral extension. The maximum slip along the fault is about 380 ​cm, and the seismic moment magnitude is 6.7. The surface rupture length is about 24 ​km, which is consistent with that measured in the field survey. The detailed seismic source model can provide basic data for the aftershock trend determination and seismic risk analysis of the adjacent active faults.

SLIP SOURCE MODEL OF THE 1995 NEFTEGORSK EARTHQUAKE (NORTH SAKHALIN) FROM GEODETIC DATA

The May 27, 1995 Mw=7.0 Neftegorsk earthquake occurred in the north of Sakhalin Island, rupturing the Upper Piltun fault, a secondary feature of the main Hokkaido-Sakhalin regional fault zone. The fault geometry, coseismic slip model, and Coulomb stress changes in the earthquake focal area were calculated based on a finite fault modeling. We used near-field coseismic offsets at 24 points obtained by comparison between predating triangulation and GPS observations, which were collected before and after the earthquake. Our slip distribution model shows two major slip patches. Larger slip asperity (amplitude up to 6.36 m) was characterized by right-lateral strike-slip movements, which correspond to focal mechanism of the earthquake, whereas the northern segment has reverse fault mechanism with maximum slip of 2.64 m. The fault length and width, average slip and stress drop values are estimated at 78 km, 28 km, 1.91 m and 11.3 MPa, respectively. The estimated release moment is approximately 7.49×1019 N∙m equal to Mw=7.2, which is larger than that reported by the USGS and GCMT but consistent with the values reported by other researchers. The coseismic Coulomb stress changes enhanced the stress by more than 10 MPa on the southern segment of the Gyrgylaninsky fault and middle section of the Hokkaido–Sakhalin fault. Seismic risks on the nearest faults cannot be ignored in the future despite the fact that the earthquake with a magnitude of 5.8 occurred in 2010 near the Gyrgylaninsky fault. The recent GPS rates in the surroundings of the Neftegorsk surface rupture mean that the recurrence interval for similar earthquakes may be more than a thousand years.

Composite Source Model for Broadband Ground-Motion Simulations: 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo, China, Earthquake Case Study

Abstract On 22 May 2021, at 2:40 a.m. (local time), an earthquake with a moment magnitude of 7.4 was reported to have occurred in Maduo County (34.59° N, 98.34° E), China. The focal depth was 17 km. After the earthquake, many scholars inverted the slip distribution of the Maduo earthquake based on ground-motion recordings, and the Global Positioning System and the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data. To verify the reliability of the fast estimation source model method adopted in this study, the hybrid slip model of the 2011 Mw 7.4 Maduo earthquake, in Qinghai Province, China, is synthetized based on the stochastic finite-fault model and the semiempirical relation between the earthquake magnitude (Mw) and source parameters. The truncated normal distribution and regional crustal structure are used to generate 30 sets of global source parameters, which describes that the deterministic characteristics of the source mainly include the size of the rupture fault, and the average slip, and the local source parameters. The local parameters include asperity and k2 model parameters. Finally, stochastic finite-fault modeling is adopted to synthetic the acceleration response spectra at four selected sites meeting different geological conditions and orientations, and the minimum residual principle is used to select the final slip model for the Maduo earthquake with the minimum residual of the average response spectra. The research results show that the width, maximum slip, and asperity body position of the source model estimated in this study are consistent with those of the inversion slip model, which verifies the reliability and applicability of this method. This work provides technical and theoretical support for rapid prediction of the source model of earthquakes with specific magnitudes.