Finish Position Research Articles

Race Dynamics in Triathlon Mixed-Team-Relay Meaningfully Changes with The New Regulation Towards Paris 2024.

Mixed-Team-Relay (MTR) triathlon is a novel Olympic discipline whose performance determinants and tactical behaviors have barely been studied. Additionally, a regulatory change has been made to the male and female relay order for the Paris 2024 Olympics. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the performance determinants and race dynamics as a function of competitive level on the new regulated MTR triathlon. Results from 129 national teams, (516 elite triathletes) across five MTR World Triathlon Series and two MTR European Championships in 2022 and 2023, were analyzed. Split times, average speeds, time behind the race leader (gap), partial and finishing positions, pack position as well as the rank positions of every segment, relay leg, and overall race were computed. Decision tree analyses were conducted as a predictive method for the overall results, and correspondence analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between the different relay legs and segments and the finishing positions. The performance of the fourth leg was the most relevant for overall result (30%), as well as the fourth running leg (16%) and the female legs performance (7%). Medallist relay teams were characterized by displaying a differential speed lower than 0.5 and 0.83 km/h, respectively, from the best-ranking athletes in the Legs 1 and 4. Furthermore, staying in the front pack after the second swimming leg showed a great relationship with achieving a medal position. New MTR triathlon rules shift race dynamics, emphasizing individual efforts in cycling and swimming, while maintaining the crucial importance of running.

Bibliometric indices as a measure of performance and competitive balance in the knockout stage of the UEFA Champions League

We argue for the application of bibliometric indices to quantify the long-term uncertainty of outcome in sports. The Euclidean index is proposed to reward quality over quantity, while the rectangle index can be an appropriate measure of core performance. Their differences are highlighted through an axiomatic analysis and several examples. Our approach also requires a weighting scheme to compare different achievements. The methodology is illustrated by studying the knockout stage of the UEFA Champions League in the 20 seasons played between 2003 and 2023: club and country performances as well as three types of competitive balance are considered. Measuring competition at the level of national associations is a novelty. All results are remarkably robust concerning the bibliometric index and the assigned weights. Since the performances of national associations are more stable than the results of individual clubs, it would be better to build the seeding in the UEFA Champions League group stage upon association coefficients adjusted for league finishing positions rather than club coefficients.

Bayesian analysis of Formula One race results: disentangling driver skill and constructor advantage.

Successful performance in Formula One is determined by combination of both the driver's skill and race-car constructor advantage. This makes key performance questions in the sport difficult to answer. For example, who is the best Formula One driver, which is the best constructor, and what is their relative contribution to success? In this paper, we answer these questions based on data from the hybrid era in Formula One (2014-2021 seasons). We present a novel Bayesian multilevel rank-ordered logit regression method to model individual race finishing positions. We show that our modelling approach describes our data well, which allows for precise inferences about driver skill and constructor advantage. We conclude that Hamilton and Verstappen are the best drivers in the hybrid era, the top-three teams (Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull) clearly outperform other constructors, and approximately 88 % of the variance in race results is explained by the constructor. We argue that this modelling approach may prove useful for sports beyond Formula One, as it creates performance ratings for independent components contributing to success.

What is the Most Important Leg and Discipline in Triathlon Mixed Team Relays?

This study aimed to determine the importance of the different relay legs and sport disciplines in the overall result of the triathlon Mixed Team Relay (MTR) events. The study analysed the results of 80 Mixed Team Relay triathlon teams (n = 320 professional triathletes) corresponding to the top ten finishers at the World Championships in Hamburg from 2013 to 2020. Split times, average speeds, time behind the race leader (gap), partial and finishing positions, as well as the rank positions of every segment, relay leg, and overall race were computed. Decision tree analyses were conducted as a predictive method for the overall results, and correspondence analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between the different relay legs and segments and the finishing positions. Running was the variable with the greatest importance (32%) in the overall result, followed by female team members (17%) and the third relay leg (17%). The swimming segments (1%) and the fourth relay leg (1%) had the lowest relevance. Medallist relay teams were characterised by cycling and running faster than 10.99 m/s and 5.59 m/s, respectively, with time gaps of less than 43 seconds by the end of the third relay leg. A reliable and accurate prediction model for the medallists' and finalists' team positions in the Mixed Team Relay triathlon was obtained. The running disciplines and performance of female team members, especially in the third leg, were ascertained to be the most significant determinants for the overall Mixed Team Relay result.

FEMORAL SHAFT-NAIL RADIUS OF CURVATURE DISCREPANCY: PREOPERATIVE ANALYSIS OF FEMORAL SHAFT ANTERIOR RADIUS OF CURVATURE USING IMAGING AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH ANTERIOR CORTICAL IMPINGEMENT DURING FIXATION OF FEMORAL PATHOLOGY

Long femoral nails for neck of femur fractures and prophylactic fixation have a risk of anterior cortex perforation. Previous studies have demonstrated the radius of curvature (ROC) of a femoral nail influencing the finishing point of a nail and the risk of anterior cortex perforation. This study aims to calculate a patients femoral ROC using preoperative XR and CT and therefore nail finishing position.We conducted a retrospective study review of patients with long femoral cephalomedullary nailing for proximal femur fractures (OTA/AO 31(A) and OTA/AO 32) or impending pathological fractures at a level 1 trauma centre between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2020 with both full length lateral X-ray and CT imaging. Femoral ROC was calculated on both imaging modalities. Outcomes measured including nail finishing position, anterior cortex encroachment and impingement. The mean femoral ROC was 1026mm on CT and 1244mm on XR. CT femoral ROC strongly correlated with nail finishing point with a spearmans coefficient of 0.77. Additionally, femurs with a ROC <1000mm were associated with a higher risk of anterior encroachment (OR 6.12) and femurs with a ROC <900mm were associated with a higher risk of anterior cortex impingement (OR 6.47).To our knowledge this is the first study to compare a measured femoral ROC to nail finishing position. The use of CT to measure femoral ROC and to a lesser extent XR was able to predict both nail finishing position and risk of anterior cortex encroachment. Preoperative XRs and CTs were able to identify patients with a small femoral ROC. This predicted patients at risk of anterior cortex impingement, anterior cortex encroachment and nail finishing position. We may be able to select femoral nails that resemble the native femoral ROC and mitigate the risk of anterior cortex perforation.

Thoracolumbar And Lumbopelvic Spinal Alignment During The Deadlift Exercise: A Comparison Between Men And Women.

BackgroundA neutral spinal alignment is considered important during the execution of the deadlift exercise to decrease the risk of injury. Since male and female powerlifters experience pain in different parts of their backs, it is important to examine whether men and women differ in spinal alignment during the deadlift.ObjectivesThe purpose of this study was to quantify the spinal alignment in the upper (thoracolumbar, T11-L2) and lower (lumbopelvic, L2-S2) lumbar spine during the deadlift exercise in male and female lifters. Secondary aims were to compare lumbar spine alignment during the deadlift to standing habitual posture, and determine whether male and female lifters differ in these aspects.Study DesignObservational, Cross-sectional.MethodsTwenty-four (14 men, 10 women) lifters performed three repetitions of the deadlift exercise using 70% of their respective one-repetition maximum. Spinal alignment and spinal range of motion were measured using three inertial measurement units placed on the thoracic, lumbar and sacral spine. Data from three different positions were analyzed; habitual posture in standing, and start and stop positions of the deadlift, i.e. bottom and finish position respectively.ResultsDuring the deadlift, spinal adjustments were evident in all three planes of movement. From standing habitual posture to the start position the lumbar lordosis decreased 13° in the upper and 20° in the lower lumbar spine. From start position to stop position the total range of motion in the sagittal plane was 11° in the upper and 22° in the lower lumbar spine. The decreased lumbar lordosis from standing habitual posture to the start position was significantly greater among men.ConclusionsMen and women adjust their spinal alignment in all three planes of movement when performing a deadlift and men seem to make greater adjustments from their standing habitual posture to start position in the sagittal plane.Level of Evidence3

Uneven but Conservative Pacing Is Associated With Performance During Uphill and Downhill Running.

To investigate the relationship between pacing strategy and performance during uphill and downhill running-specifically, what distribution of energy corresponds to faster race finish times between and among participants. Eighteen years of race data from a 10.2-mile running race with an uphill first half and a downhill second half were analyzed to identify relationships between pacing and performance. A pacing coefficient (PC), equal to a participant's ascent time divided by finishing time (FT), was used to define each participant's pacing strategy. The American College of Sports Medicine metabolic running equation was used to estimate energy expenditure during the ascent, descent, and total race. Statistical analyses compared participants' PC to their FT and finishing place within their age and gender category. Additionally, FT and finishing place were compared between groups of participants who exhibited similar pacing strategies. PCs were positively associated with faster FTs (r2 = .120, P < .001) and better finishing positions (r2 = .104, P < .001). PCs above .600 were associated with the fastest average FTs and best average finishing position within age and gender categories (all P ≤ .047). Participants performed the best when energy expenditure increased no more than 10.4% during the uphill portion compared to their overall average. It is not possible to state that overly aggressive uphill efforts resulted in premature fatigue and thus slower decent times and worse race performance. However, participants should still avoid overly aggressive uphill pacing, as performance was associated with larger PCs.

Analysis and mitigation of the bending deformation in girth-welded slender pipes with numerical modelling and experimental measurement

Girth welded pipes are extensively used in the components of energy and chemical industries. The welding deformation modes depend on various influential factors, such as process schemes and geometric dimensions. The objective of this study is to investigate the characteristics and mechanism of the bending deformation generated in the girth welded slender pipes, and to develop mitigation schemes. Firstly, several 304-type stainless steel pipes were girth welded using four different welding schemes, and the 3D shape measuring system was employed to capture the basic welding deformation modes. Numerical models were developed to simulate the corresponding welding processes with experimental verification. And the mechanism of bending deformation was further clarified based on inherent strain theory. The results show that obvious bending was observed in the pipe of continuous full turn welding due to the non-uniform distribution of the axial residual plastic strain on the circumference. Welding of half turn tends to generate a bending from the weld starting position to the finish position besides the bending toward the weld side, which brings about the mutual elimination of the bending deformation with same direction half-turns and the superposition with reverse direction half-turns. Furthermore, a dual-torch scheme was proposed for girth welding of slender pipes and presented a great potential to mitigate the bending deformation with an improved welding efficiency.

The potential of the shadow measure

It is well known that given two probability measures μ and ν on R in convex order there exists a discrete-time martingale with these marginals. Several solutions are known (for example from the literature on the Skorokhod embedding problem in Brownian motion). But, if we add a requirement that the martingale should minimise the expected value of some functional of its starting and finishing positions then the problem becomes more difficult. Beiglböck and Juillet (Ann. Probab. 44 (2016) 42–106) introduced the shadow measure which induces a family of martingale couplings, and solves the optimal martingale transport problem for a class of bivariate objective functions. In this article we extend their (existence and uniqueness) results by providing an explicit construction of the shadow measure and, as an application, give a simple proof of its associativity.

Relationship between the colors of goggles and shoulder muscle strength in swimmers

Biography: Obtained a doctor of medicine on the theme of verifying the effect of therapeutic exercise in osteoarthritis. Rio Olympic games Artistic Swimming Japan national team trainer. I am interested in improvement of physical performance in swimming and cognitive science applied to sports. Background: Almost all studies on color reveal its effects on calculation tasks and work efficiency, and there are few fundamental studies on individual sports performance. Recently, some reports have indicated that unconsciously processed visual information affects the performance of sports. In this study, we focused on muscle exertion, which is directly related to sports performance, and studied the effect of different colors of goggles on muscle exertion of the upper limbs. Methods: Sixty-eight collegiate swimmers (mean age 19.4 ± 1.0 years) were recruited. Written informed consent was obtained from all participants. Subjects were made to randomly wear four differently colored goggles (red, blue, green, and transparent), and the upper limb muscle strength was measured using a hand-held dynamometer. The upper limb muscle strength was measured while lying down on a bed on the ground, and the maximum isometric muscle strength at the catch position, push position, and finish position were measured based on the phase separation of pull motions during swimming. SPSS was used for statistical processing, and the significance level was set at 5%. Results: The muscle strength of the catch position, push position, and finish position with the red goggles was 20.7 ± 5.8 kgf, 20.5 ± 6.2 kgf, and 11.7 ± 2.9 kgf, respectively. Similarly, muscle strength with the blue, green and transparent goggles was 20.5 ± 6.0 kgf, 20.5 ± 5.6 kgf, and 11.6 ± 3.1 kgf; 20.7 ± 5.8 kgf, 21.0 ± 6.0 kgf, and 11.4 ± 3.0 kgf ; and 20.6 ± 6.1 kgf, 20.4 ± 6.0 kgf, and 11.5 ± 3.1 kgf, respectively. Statistical analysis showed significant difference in the muscle strength between green goggles and transparent goggles at the push position (p < 0.05). However, there was no significant difference in the other colors or positions. Discussion: Several studies have reported that the color of uniforms affects the winning rate and performance in sports (Hopkin, 2005). Red color has been found to be advantageous, possibly because it increases the fighting spirit associated with the secretion of testosterone. In this study, it was not possible to prove that red is a best color for muscular exertion. However, this study suggests that the color of goggles has some influence on muscular exertion in a specific limb position. Further studies are needed to study the effects of colors on hormones, autonomic nerves, and brain activity. Conflicts of interest: This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers 19K11496.

Meso-pacing in Olympic and World Championship sprints and hurdles: Medallists save their best for the final

ABSTRACT The aim of this novel study was to analyse performance changes across qualifying heats, semi-finals and finals in world-class sprinters and hurdlers. Finalists’ finishing positions, times and rankings at the Olympic Games and IAAF World Championships (2012–2019) were obtained. 78% of gold, 67% of silver and 38% of bronze medallists won their qualifying heat and semi-final, and in most events final placings were associated with finishing positions in the qualifying heats (P ≤ 0.006), but not with finishing times. Medallists ran faster in each successive round (P < 0.001), whereas those finishing between 4th-6th did not improve on their semi-final times. Most athletes finishing last and second-last ran the final slower than both their semi-final and qualifying heats. The short hurdles events, with fixed barrier heights and distances, differed from the other races as the medallists were faster than most rivals in the qualifying rounds (P < 0.05), and their race times did not improve from the semi-final to the final. Coaches should note that the world’s best athletes were able to conserve energy for the final within a meso-pacing strategy throughout the championships, which was more important in the short hurdles, and requires preparation within their training regimens.

Stroking Rates of Open Water Swimmers during the 2019 FINA World Swimming Championships.

The aim of the present research was to examine the stroking rate (SR) values of successful and non-successful swimmers in the 10 km and 25 km races of the FINA 2019 World Swimming Championships. Data from 175 participants (95 men and 80 female) were classified according to their finishing positions. There were no meaningful differences in the overall SR values displayed by successful or non-successful participants during the 10 km and 25 km open water races of the FINA 2019 World Swimming Championships. However, there were changes in the SR throughout the races that depended on the swimmer’s performance group and gender. Successful swimmers in the 10 km event typically displayed even SR in the first 5 km but, unlike the remaining performance groups, increased their SR at some point in the second 5 km of the race. In the 25 km race, successful female swimmers presented an even SR profile for most of the race, whereas successful males presented a more variable profile. Nevertheless, no relationships between partial or average SR and finishing positions occurred, either in the 10 km or in the 25 km race. Changes in the SR values should be included in the race plan of open water swimmers according to tactical and pacing strategies.

Factors Associated with Mortality in Ontario Standardbred Racing: 2003-2015.

Simple SummaryRacing provides employment and career engagement, is passionately pursued, and helps sustain our close relationship with horses, but it can also be associated with injury and losses. Fatalities occur on and off racetracks, involving welfare concerns, economic impact, and damage to racing’s public profile and social license. Musculoskeletal injury, the most visible loss, represents only one source and remains poorly understood, while for other losses and off-track mortality little is known. In 2003, the Province of Ontario, Canada introduced a registry for racehorse mortalities, providing opportunities to better understand losses and contributing factors. Following an earlier publication describing losses across all breeds, this paper presents analysis of standardbred mortality and relationships with routine management and competition. Results reveal that aspects of industry structure may contribute to mortality, and that the impact might be anticipated by close monitoring of a horse’s profile and performance. The immediate circumstances precipitating any specific fatality should be seen as separate from this underlying environmental liability. This has implications for how future research might be conducted and findings interpreted. It is hoped the present study can be used to decrease mortality and cumulative injury so as to reduce losses and strengthen societal support for racing.Factors associated with mortality in standardbred racehorses were assessed through a retrospective annualized cohort study of all-cause mortality from 2003–2015 (n = 978) (identified in the Ontario Racehorse Death Registry). Race and qualifying data for official work-events were also gathered (1,778,330 work-events, 125,200 horse years). Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed sex, age, and indices of workload and intensity and their interactions to be strongly associated with mortality. Track class, race versus qualifying performance, and work-event outcome (finish position, scratched, or failed to finish) also influenced mortality odds, which increased as performance slowed. Intense competition at higher performance levels and qualifying races at lower levels carried particularly high odds. Though occurring frequently, musculoskeletal injury was less frequent than all other presenting problems combined. Industry structure contributes to mortality through interaction between horse characteristics and the competition environment. This substrate may be amenable to management to minimize liability, but incident-specific triggers may represent chance factors and be relatively difficult to identify or control. Differentiating between substrate and trigger when studying specific clinical problems may provide greater clarity and yield in identifying underlying causes. Mortality may reflect a continuum of circumstances, cumulative impacts of which might be identified before a fatal event occurs.

The effect of predation risk on group behaviour and information flow during repeated collective decisions

Making fast and accurate group decisions under uncertain and risky conditions is a fundamental problem for groups. Currently, there is little empirical evidence of how natural selection (such as environmental predation risk) has shaped the mechanisms of group decision making. We repeatedly tested individually marked guppies, Poecilia reticulata, from the upper and lower reaches of the Aripo and Turure rivers in a Y-maze and found that populations that had evolved under different predation regimes differed in their decision-making speed. All groups decreased decision time over successive trial rounds, but fish from low-predation environments did so at a greater rate than fish from high-predation environments. This effect was only significant when fish were tested in groups of eight, not when tested individually. Decision-making accuracy was not significantly different between high- and low-predation populations. Group behaviour differed according to predation risk and trial round, most notably with low-predation groups reducing the amount of positional switching over successive trial rounds at a greater rate than high-predation groups. While fish from both predator risk environments had repeatable within-shoal positioning behaviour as they swam down the maze, only fish from the high-predation groups had repeatable finishing positions. Meaningful measures of information transfer (mean pairwise transfer entropy) were only recorded in low-predation groups, and here there was a significant effect of source river on information flow within groups. Aripo groups increased information flow over successive trial rounds, while Turure groups did not. Variation in mean pairwise transfer entropy increased over successive trial rounds for both low-predation populations, suggesting that information used to make movement decisions became less homogeneously distributed and increasingly directed through a subset of individuals. Predation pressure is a ubiquitous selection force, and these findings may apply to a variety of natural social groups.

Perfil de pacing nas provas de 5.000 m e 10.000 m do Troféu Brasil de Atletismo 2018

This study intended to analyze the pacing profiles in 5,000 m and 10,000 m race, men and women, in Brazil Athletics Trophy. Thirty-six high-level runners, being 19 women, participated in this study. The races were filmed (iPhone 8 Plus). The device was positioned on the outside of the track and a cone on the inside edge of the finish line. This procedure allowed the acquisition of lap times. The plotting of the percentage of average speed for each lap of the 400 m within a race was used to analyze the pacing profile adopted. Differences between the laps were analyzed through one-way ANOVA for repeated measures. The significance level was established as p<0.05. In the women’s 5,000 m (1.200 m - 4.000 m; p=0.003-0.045) and 10,000 m (2.400 m - 8.400; p= 0.01-0.04), was employed the positive pacing profile. In men’s race, the varied profile was adopted in 5,000 m race (800m - 1.600m, p=0.001-0.019; 3.200m, p=0.00–0.02; last 200m, p= 0.027) and the constant during 10,000 m race (p= 0.98). In these competitions in which the most important is the finishing positions, opponents' actions can influence the tactical decision. Therefore, to succeed, the athletes should remain in the group and sprint in the race's final meters when the result is defined.

More Pace Variation and Pack Formation in Successful World-Class 10,000-m Runners Than in Less Successful Competitors.

To determine different relationships between, and predictive ability of, performance variables at intermediate distances with finishing time in elite male 10,000-m runners. Official electronic finishing and 100-m split times of the men's 10,000-m finals at the 2008 and 2016 Olympic Games and IAAF World Championships in 2013 and 2017 were obtained (125 athlete performances in total). Correlations were calculated between finishing times and positions and performance variables related to speed, position, time to the leader, and time to the runner in front at 2000, 4000, 6000, 8000, and 9900m. Stepwise linear-regression analysis was conducted between finishing times and positions and these variables across the race. One-way analysis of variance was performed to identify differences between intermediate distances. The SD and kurtosis of mean time, skewness of mean time, and position and time difference to the leader were either correlated with or significantly contributed to predictions of finishing time and position at at least one of the analyzed distances (.81 ≥ r ≥ .30 and .001 ≤ P ≤ .03, respectively). These variables also displayed variation across the race (.001 ≤ P ≤ .05). The ability to undertake a high degree of pace variability, mostly characterized by acceleration in the final stages, is strongly associated with achievement of high finishing positions in championship 10,000-m racing. Furthermore, the adoption and maintenance of positions close to the front of the race from the early stages are important to achieve a high finishing position.

The Relationship between Tactical Positioning and the Race Outcome in 800-M Running at the 2016 Olympic Games and 2017 IAAF World Championship.

The purpose of this analysis was to quantify the probability of achieving a top-3 finishing position during 800-m races at a global championship, based on dispersion of the runners during the first and second laps and the difference in split times between laps. Overall race times, intermediate and finishing positions and 400 m split times were obtained for 43 races over 800 m (21 men’s and 22 women’s) comprising 334 individual performances, 128 of which resulted in higher positions (top-3) and 206 the remaining positions. Intermediate and final positions along with times, the dispersion of the runners during the intermediate and final splits (SS1 and SS2), as well as differences between the two split times (Dsplits) were calculated. A logistic regression model was created to determine the influence of these factors in achieving a top-3 position. The final position was most strongly associated with SS2, but also with SS1 and Dsplits. The Global Significance Test showed that the model was significant (p < 0.001) with a predictive ability of 91.08% and an area under the curve coefficient of 0.9598. The values of sensitivity and specificity were 96.8% and 82.5%, respectively. The model demonstrated that SS1, SS2 and Dplits explained the finishing position in the 800-m event in global championships.

Race Strategies of Open Water Swimmers in the 5-km, 10-km, and 25-km Races of the 2017 FINA World Swimming Championships.

Despite literature on the pacing strategies of endurance sports, there is an existing lack of knowledge about the swimmers’ tactical decisions in the open water races. The aims of the present research were (1) to compare the pacing profiles and tactical strategies of successful elite open water swimmers (men and women) in the 5-km, 10-km, and 25-km races and (2) to relate these pacing strategies to the end race results. Intermediate split times, positions and gaps with leaders of the first ten swimmers classified in the 2017 FINA World Swimming Championships races were collected from the public domain and were related to the finishing positions. Overall swimming velocities of the 5-km races were faster than the 10-km (δ 0.03 ± 0.03 m/s) and the 25-km (δ 0.14 ± 0.01 m/s) events with male swimmers achieving relatively faster mean velocities than females in the 5-km (δ 0.12 ± 0.01 m/s) compared to the 25-km (δ 0.08 ± 0.01 m/s) events. Medallist swimmers achieved moderate faster overall velocities than finalists in the 25-km races (0.01 ± 0.01 m/s) only. Inter-level differences were detected in selected splits for each race distance. Pacing profiles presented lap to lap velocity improvements in the 5-km and men’s 10-km races (from +0.02 ± 0.00 to +0.11 ± 0.01 m/s) but also mid-race decreases in the women’s 10-km and on the 25-km races. Successful swimmers were located in the leading positions of the 5-km races but at mid-group in the first part of the 10-km and 25-km races, with time gaps with leaders of 15–20 s. Faster lap swimming velocities, mid-race leading positions and shorter time-gaps were only related to the finishing positions in the last lap of the 10-km and in the three last laps of the 25-km events, but also in the first lap of the women’s 5-km race. Despite different mid-race positioning, successful open water swimmers typically presented negative pacing profiles, a consistent control of mid-race gaps with leaders (15–20 s maximum) and great spurts (4–6% faster than mean race velocities) at the end of races. Coaches and swimmers should be aware of the different race dynamics depending to the event distance in order to select optimal race strategies.

Fortune Favors the Brave: Tactical Behaviors in the Middle-Distance Running Events at the 2017 IAAF World Championships.

To assess tactical and performance factors associated with progression from qualification rounds in the 800-m and 1500-m running events at the 2017 International Association of Athletics Federations World Championships. Official results were used to access final and intermediate positions and times, as well as performance characteristics of competitors. Shared variance between intermediate positions and rank order lap times with finishing positions were calculated, along with probability of automatic qualification, for athletes in each available race position at the end of every 400-m lap. Differences in race positions and lap times relative to season's best performances were assessed between automatic qualifiers, fastest losers, and nonqualifiers. Race positions at the end of each 400-m lap remained more stable through 800-m races than 1500-m races. Probability of automatic qualification decreased with both race position and rank order lap times on each lap, although rank order lap times accounted for a higher degree of shared variance than did intermediate position. In the 1500-m event, fastest losers ran at a higher percentage of season's best speed and adopted positions closer to the race lead in the early stages. This was not the case in the 800-m. Intermediate positioning and the ability to produce a fast final race segment are strongly related to advancement from qualification rounds in middle-distance running events. The adoption of a more "risky" strategy characterized by higher speeds relative to season's best may be associated with an increased likelihood of qualification as fastest losers in the 1500-m event.

Forecasting Ranking in Harness Racing Using Probabilities Induced by Expected Positions

ABSTRACTRanked events are pivotal in many important AI-applications such as Question Answering and recommendations systems. This paper studies ranked events in the setting of harness racing.For each horse there exists a probability distribution over its possible rankings. In the paper, it is shown that a set of expected positions (and more generally, higher moments) for the horses induces this probability distribution.The main contribution of the paper is a method, which extracts this induced probability distribution from a set of expected positions. An algorithm is proposed where the extraction of the induced distribution is given by the estimated expectations. MATLAB code is provided for the methodology.This approach gives freedom to model the horses in many different ways without the restrictions imposed by for instance logistic regression. To illustrate this point, we employ a neural network and ordinary ridge regression.The method is applied to predicting the distribution of the finishing positions for horses in harness racing. It outperforms both multinomial logistic regression and the market odds.The ease of use combined with fine results from the suggested approach constitutes a relevant addition to the increasingly important field of ranked events.