Fine-Gray Competing Risk Regression Model Research Articles

A nomogram to predict cancer-specific mortality in adult patients with malignant meningioma: a competing risk analysis

BackgroundComprehensive investigations of the prognosis factors and treatment strategies with adjustment of competing causes of death for patients with malignant meningioma (MM) is still lacking.Patient and methodThe surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were used to include adult patients with this rare disease between 2004 and 2018. The probability of MM-caused mortality (MMCM) and non-MM-caused mortality (non-MMCM) were presented by cumulative incidence function curves. Then, the association between variates with non-MMCM was evaluated by the cox proportional hazard model, and the prognostic factors of MMCM were identified by Fine-Gray competing risk regression model. Furthermore, a nomogram was developed to predict the 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year MMCM and the performance was tested by a time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration.Result577 patients were included, with a median age of 62 (18–100) years old and a median overall survival time of 36 (0–176) months. The percentage of non-MMCM was 15.4% (n = 89) in the entire population and 21.7% (n = 54) in elderly patients. The multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model revealed that older age and other tumor(s) before or after MM had an independently significant association with higher non-MMCM. After adjustment of competing causes of death, the multivariable Fine-gray regression model identified age group ≥ 65 year, tumor size > 5.3 cm, recurrent MM, and histologic type 9530/3 (Meningioma, malignant) had an independently significant association with higher MMCM. Compared with gross total (GTR) of tumor, subtotal resection of tumor (HR 1.66, 95%CI 1.08–2.56, P = 0.02), partial resection of lobe (HR 2.26, 95%CI 1.32–3.87, P = 0.003), and gross total resection of lobe (HR 1.69, 95%CI 1.12–2.51, P = 0.01) had an independently significant association with higher MMCM.ConclusionThe competing risk nomogram including age group, tumor size, initial status, histologic type, and extent of resection is discriminative and clinically useful. This study emphasized the importance of the GTR of tumor in the treatment of MM patients, which had a significantly lower incidence of MMCM compared with biopsy, STR of tumor, partial resection of lobe, and GTR of lobe.

The Associations of Sensory Impairment With 10-Year Risk of Dementia and Alzheimer's Disease: The Health and Retirement Study, 2010-2020.

Studies have examined the association between dual sensory impairment and late-life cognitive outcomes in the U.S with inconsistent findings. To examine the associations between sensory impairment and 10-year risk of dementia or Alzheimer's disease among U.S. adults aged ≥ 50. A prospective cohort study based on the Health and Retirement Study from 2010 to 2020. Individuals aged ≥ 50 years without self-reported dementia and Alzheimer's disease in 2010 were included in the analysis. Self-reported visual and hearing impairments were measures in 2010. Main failure events included self-reported incident dementia and Alzheimer's disease over a 10-year follow-up period. Participants were categorized as having no visual or hearing impairment, visual impairment only, hearing impairment only, and dual sensory impairment. Fine-Gray competing risk regression model was applied to estimate the associations of sensory impairment with incident dementia and Alzheimer's disease, adjusted for demographic characteristics, health behaviors, and health conditions at baseline. Of 20,248 identified individuals, 14.6% had visual impairment only, 11.2% had hearing impairment only, and 9.1% had dual impairment at baseline. After adjusting for all covariates, dual sensory impairment was associated with higher risk of dementia (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.23-1.73) and Alzheimer's disease (HR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.03-1.76). Visual impairment only was also associated with incident dementia and Alzheimer's disease among individuals <65 years. Older adults in the U.S. with visual and hearing impairments simultaneously had a particularly greater risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease, indicating the needs of targeted screening for timely treatment and further prevention of dementia and Alzheimer's disease.

Concomitant use of lansoprazole and ceftriaxone is associated with an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias and cardiac arrest in a large Japanese hospital database

To determine whether concomitant use of ceftriaxone and oral or intravenous lansoprazole increases the risk of ventricular arrhythmia and cardiac arrest in the real-world setting in Japan. The data analyzed were obtained from the JMDC hospital-based administrative claims database for the period April 2014 to August 2022. Patients who received a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) while receiving ceftriaxone or sulbactam/ampicillin were identified. The frequency of ventricular arrhythmia and cardiac arrest was analyzed according to whether oral or intravenous PPI was concomitant with ceftriaxone or sulbactam/ampicillin. Estimates of the incidence of ventricular arrhythmia and cardiac arrest were then compared among the groups, using the Fine-Gray competing risk regression model. The results showed that the risk of ventricular arrhythmia and cardiac arrest was significantly higher with concomitant ceftriaxone and oral lansoprazole (hazard ratio 2.92, 95% confidence interval 1.99-4.29, P<0.01) or intravenous lansoprazole (hazard ratio 4.57, 95% confidence interval 1.24-16.80, P=0.02) than with concomitant sulbactam/ampicillin and oral or intravenous lansoprazole. Oral and intravenous lansoprazole may increase the risk of ventricular arrhythmia and cardiac arrest in patients who are receiving ceftriaxone.

Acute kidney injury development is associated with mortality in Japanese patients with cirrhosis: impact of amino acid imbalance

BackgroundAcute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious complication of cirrhosis. This study analyzed the prognostic effect of AKI in patients with cirrhosis and its risk factors, particularly in relation to amino acid imbalance.MethodsThis retrospective study reviewed 808 inpatients with cirrhosis at two institutes in Gifu, Japan. AKI was diagnosed according to the recommendations of the International Club of Ascites. Amino acid imbalance was assessed by measuring serum branched-chain amino acid (BCAA) levels, tyrosine levels, and the BCAA-to-tyrosine ratio (BTR). Factors associated with mortality and AKI development were assessed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model with AKI as a time-dependent covariate and the Fine–Gray competing risk regression model, respectively.ResultsOf the 567 eligible patients without AKI at baseline, 27% developed AKI and 25% died during a median follow-up period of 4.7 years. Using a time-dependent covariate, AKI development (hazard ratio [HR], 6.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.98–9.80; p < 0.001) was associated with mortality in patients with cirrhosis independent of potential covariates. In addition, alcohol-associated/-related liver disease, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, Child–Pugh score, and BTR (subdistribution HR 0.78; 95% CI 0.63–0.96; p = 0.022) were independently associated with AKI development in patients with cirrhosis. Similar results were obtained in the multivariate model that included BCAA and tyrosine levels instead of BTR.ConclusionsAKI is common and associated with mortality in Japanese patients with cirrhosis. An amino acid imbalance is strongly associated with the development of AKI in patients with cirrhosis.

Later aorta operation after aortic valve replacement for bicuspid aortic valve

BackgroundWe investigated long-term outcomes, particularly later aorta operations and overall death in patients who underwent aortic valve replacement for bicuspid aortic valve without aortic surgery.MethodsBetween January 2002 and December 2022, 274 patients underwent aortic valve replacement for bicuspid aortic valve at our institution. Of them, 181 patients who did not undergo aortic surgery, in accordance with current guidelines, were analyzed retrospectively.ResultsThe median follow-up duration was 6.1 (2.0–10.6) years, and follow-up was completed in 97.8% of pateints. There were 3 patients (1.7%) who underwent later aorta operation during follow-up period. The cumulative later aorta operation rate at 10 years adjusting overall death as competing risk was 16.3%, and the estimated rates of freedom from overall death at 10 years was 83.7%. Fine-Gray competing risk regression model showed that aortic valve stenosis was only the predictor of later aorta operation (hazard ratio 8.477; p = 0.012). In multivariable Cox models, predictors of overall death were aortic valve stenosis (hazard ratio: 8.270, 95% confidence interval: 1.082–63.235; p = 0.042) and operation time (hazard ratio: 1.011, 95% confidence interval: 1.004–1.017; p = 0.002).ConclusionsPatients with bicuspid aortic valve with ascending aortic diameter less than 45 mm are at low risk of later aorta operation after isolated aortic valve replacement.

Combination of Muscle Quantity and Quality Is Useful to Assess the Necessity of Surveillance after a 5-Year Cancer-Free Period in Patients Who Undergo Radical Cystectomy: A Multi-Institutional Retrospective Study

Although continuous surveillance after a 5-year cancer-free period in patients with bladder cancer (BC) who undergo radical cystectomy (RC) is recommended, optimal candidates for continuous surveillance remain unclear. Sarcopenia is associated with unfavorable prognosis in various malignancies. We aimed to investigate the impact of low muscle quantity and quality (defined as severe sarcopenia) on prognosis after a 5-year cancer-free period in patients who underwent RC. We conducted a multi-institutional retrospective study assessing 166 patients who underwent RC and had five years or more of follow-up periods after a 5-year cancer-free period. Muscle quantity and quality were evaluated using the psoas muscle index (PMI) and intramuscular adipose tissue content (IMAC) using computed tomography images five years after RC. Patients with lower PMI and higher IMAC values than the cut-off values were diagnosed with severe sarcopenia. Univariable analyses were performed to assess the impact of severe sarcopenia on recurrence, adjusting for the competing risk of death using the Fine-Gray competing risk regression model. Moreover, the impact of severe sarcopenia on non-cancer-specific survival was evaluated using univariable and multivariable analyses. The median age and follow-up period after the 5-year cancer-free period were 73 years and 94 months, respectively. Of 166 patients, 32 were diagnosed with severe sarcopenia. The 10-year RFS rate was 94.4%. In the Fine-Gray competing risk regression model, severe sarcopenia did not show a significant higher probability of recurrence, with an adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio of 0.525 (p = 0.540), whereas severe sarcopenia was significantly associated with non-cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio 1.909, p = 0.047). These results indicate that patients with severe sarcopenia might not need continuous surveillance after a 5-year cancer-free period, considering the high non-cancer-specific mortality.

Novel Prediction Models of Nonrelapse Mortality in Patients Specific to Each Reduced-Intensity Conditioning before Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation: A Multicenter Analysis from the Kanto Study Group for Cell Therapy (KSGCT)

Introduction Despite recent developments on various transplantation procedures and supportive therapy, nonrelapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allo-SCT) remains an essential issue. In choosing the appropriate regimen for allo-SCT, decision-making information that considers the complexity of different risk factors is vital. The Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation-Comorbidity Index (HCT-CI), which was initially derived and validated by investigators at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center to predict NRM, has become a widely validated tool for predicting outcomes in many transplant settings (Sorror et al. Blood. 2005). It can also stratify patients for the risk of other outcomes, including overall survival and graft versus host disease. Patients with a high HCT-CI score tend to prefer allo-SCT with reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC). Conversely, for those who has a low HCT-CI score but prefer allo-SCT with RIC, a prognostic indicator is unnecessary. Furthermore, the risk factors for NRM may differ among various conditioning regimens. Therefore, the current study aimed to establish a new prognostic model for patients specific to each RIC regimen before allo-SCT. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study to develop prognostic models of NRM in patients conditioned with fludarabine/ busulfan (Flu/Bu) or fludarabine/melphalan (Flu/Mel). We selected patients who had leukemia and lymphoma in remission or had untreated or stable myelodysplastic syndrome and experienced initial allo-SCT relapse between 2007 and 2017 in the Kanto Study of Group for Cell Therapy. The primary outcome measure was 2-year NRM. Furthermore, we evaluated variables such as patient age, albumin value (Alb), liver function, renal function, respiratory function, ejection fraction (EF), C-reactive protein, stem cell source, donor type, usage of antithymocyte globulin, performance status (PS), recipient/donor sexes, time interval from diagnosis to transplant, usage of total body irradiation (TBI), and HCT-CI score. To identify a set of variables for Fine-Gray competing risk regression model, we used an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)-based variable selection procedure. We assigned weights to individual parameters according to their prognostic significance in Fine-Gray models. The identified model's discriminative ability was assessed by Harrell's C-statistic. Results Among the 430 patients analyzed, 202 received Flu/Bu, and 228 received Flu/Mel. In Flu/Bu and Flu/Mel, the mean age was 60.6±6.2 and 57.8±8.5 years, the HCT-CI score ≤ 2 was observed in 77.2% and 78.1%, and 2-year NRM was found in 19.7% and 17.9% of the patients, respectively. Before transplantation, the most dominant parameters in Flu/Bu were Alb < 4.0 g/dL and EF < 55 %, whereas those in Flu/Mel were PS > 0, Alb < 4.0 g/dL, stem cell source, recipient/donor sexes and usage of TBI. Each of the abovementioned parameters, including PS > 0, was scored based on regression coefficients. To evaluate the 2-year NRM, we divided the total scores into several risk groups. In the Flu/Bu group, the NRM was 10.3 % in low (score 0, n = 69), 19.2 % in intermediate-1 (score 1, n =46), 25.4 % in intermediate-2 (score 2-3, n = 81) and 50.0 % in high (score 4-5, n = 6) scores. In the Flu/Mel group, the NRM was 8.6 % in low (score 0-2, n = 48), 15.2 % in intermediate (score 3-4, n = 139), and 37.4 % in high (score 5-8, n = 41) scores (Figure). Higher scores were strongly associated with worse NRM and survival. These models showed good discrimination, with C-statistic values of 0.64 in Flu/Bu and 0.67 in Flu/Mel. Conclusions Our prognostic models for NRM estimation can distinguish patients with a high NRM risk. To our knowledge, these models are the first prognostic models used to estimate NRM for standard-risk patients specific to each RIC regimen. This new simple index may help predict NRM and choose an appropriate conditioning regimen before allo-SCT. Figure 1View largeDownload PPTFigure 1View largeDownload PPT Close modal

Predictors of clonal evolution and myeloid neoplasia following immunosuppressive therapy in severe aplastic anemia.

Predictors, genetic characteristics, and long-term outcomes of patients with SAA who clonally evolved after immunosuppressive therapy (IST) were assessed. SAA patients were treated with IST from 1989-2020. Clonal evolution was categorized as "high-risk" (overt myeloid neoplasm [meeting WHO criteria for dysplasia, MPN or acute leukemia] or isolated chromosome-7 abnormality/complex karyotype without dysplasia or overt myeloid neoplasia) or "low-risk" (non-7 or non-complex chromosome abnormalities without morphological evidence of dysplasia or myeloid neoplasia). Univariate and multivariate analysis using Fine-Gray competing risk regression model determined predictors. Long-term outcomes included relapse, overall survival (OS) and hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT). Somatic mutations in myeloid cancer genes were assessed in evolvers and in 407 patients 6 months after IST. Of 663 SAA patients, 95 developed clonal evolution. Pre-treatment age >48 years and ANC > 0.87 × 109/L were strong predictors of high-risk evolution. OS was 37% in high-risk clonal evolution by 5 years compared to 94% in low-risk. High-risk patients who underwent HSCT had improved OS. Eltrombopag did not increase high-risk evolution. Splicing factors and RUNX1 somatic variants were detected exclusively at high-risk evolution; DNMT3A, BCOR/L1 and ASXL1 were present in both. RUNX1, splicing factors and ASXL1 somaticmutations detected at 6 months after IST predicted high-risk evolution.

Single immediate instillation of chemotherapy is associated with decreased recurrence and progression in patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer who receive adjuvant induction bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy.

To investigate whether a single intravesical instillation of chemotherapy is associated with improved oncological outcomes in patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer who receive adjuvant induction bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy. This multi-institutional retrospective study included 205 patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer who received adjuvant induction bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy. Patients were divided into two groups: those who received the combined therapy of a single instillation of chemotherapy plus subsequent adjuvant induction bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy (combined therapy group), and those who received adjuvant induction bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy alone (bacillus Calmette-Guérin monotherapy group). Multivariable analyses using the inverse probability of treatment weighting method and Fine-Gray competing risk regression models were performed to evaluate the impact of a single instillation of chemotherapy on intravesical recurrence-free survival and muscle-invasive bladder cancer-free survival. Among the 205 patients, 130 (63%) and 75 (37%) were classified as the combined therapy and bacillus Calmette-Guérin monotherapy groups, respectively. Multivariable analyses using the inverse probability of treatment weighting method showed that a single instillation of chemotherapy was significantly associated with longer intravesical recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio 0.279; P < 0.001) and muscle-invasive bladder cancer-free survival (hazard ratio 0.078; P < 0.001). Fine-Gray competing risk regression model revealed that a single instillation of chemotherapy was associated with a significantly lower probability of intravesical recurrence and muscle-invasive bladder cancer progression, with an adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio of 0.477 (P = 0.008) and 0.261 (P = 0.043), respectively. A single intravesical instillation of chemotherapy may be a potential treatment option in patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer who receive adjuvant induction bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy.

Strong Predictors of Chromosomal Aberrations and Myeloid Neoplasia Following Immunosuppression Therapy for Severe Aplastic Anemia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Introduction: Immune aplastic anemia (AA) is effectively treated with either immunosuppressive treatment (IST) or allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT). Clonal evolution remains the most feared long-term complication after IST. We investigated predictor factors, genetic characteristics, and long-term outcomes of patients who developed either secondary myeloid neoplasia or isolated chromosomal abnormalities without morphologic dysplasia after immunosuppression.Methods: All patients with severe AA treated at the NIH Clinical Center with IST from 1989-2020 who underwent clonal evolution were categorized as “high-risk” (overt myeloid neoplasia, or isolated chromosome 7 abnormality / complex cytogenetics) or “low-risk” (isolated chromosome abnormalities without overt myeloid neoplasia or dysplasia; isolated chromosome 7 abnormality or complex cytogenetics were characterized as high-risk). Univariable analysis was performed using the Fine-Gray competing risk regression model using death as a competing risk to determine predictors of clonal evolution. Classification and regression tree analysis of time to clonal evolution was performed on continuous baseline variables to partition the data based on the best categorical cutoff. Long term outcomes assessed included overall survival (OS) and HSCT. Error corrected next-generation sequencing (ECS) was used to assess for pathogenic somatic variants in known myeloid cancer genes in clonal evolvers both at time of evolution and in serial samples prior when available.Results: Of 659 patients with severe AA included in this study, 95 developed clonal evolution: 59 high-risk and 36 low-risk. Age >48 years at diagnosis and pre-treatment ANC >0.87x10 9/L were strong predictors of high-risk clonal evolution. High-risk clonal evolution was increased in patients aged >48 years, with cumulative incidence (CI) of 13.9% by 5 years compared to patients aged <48 years of 3.8% by 5 years (p<0.001). Baseline ANC >0.87 x10 9/L (independent of age) predicted an even higher risk of evolution; CI for high-risk evolution was 17% by 5 years (p<0.001). Combined high ANC and older age (>48 years) were prognostic of the greatest risk of high-risk evolution, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 5.51; conversely, ANC <0.87 x10 9/L and age <48 years was protective, with HR 0.32. High-risk clonal evolution was not significantly increased by use of eltrombopag with IST versus IST only (p=0.3), but there was an increase when all clonal evolution was considered (p=0.02). Overall survival in high-risk evolution was 35% at 5 years and in low-risk evolution was 84% (p<0.001). Patients with high-risk evolution who underwent HSCT (n=26) had better OS compared to those treated with chemotherapy or supportive care (p=0.005).RUNX1 (13 variants in 8 [35%] patients) and ASXL1 (13 variants in 10 [43%] patients) were the most frequent mutated genes at time of clonal evolution in high-risk patients, and BCOR/L1 (14 variants in 8 [32%] patients) was the most frequently mutated in the low-risk group. Longitudinal data were available in five high-risk and eight low-risk patients. Three of five high-risk patients had acquisition or expansion of RUNX1 clones at evolution. Small RUNX1 variants were present in two patients as early as three years prior to high-risk evolution. Splicing factor genes and RUNX1 somatic variants were detected exclusively in the high-risk group; DNMT3A, BCOR/L1 and ASXL1 gene mutations were present in both groups.Conclusion: Age and pre-treatment ANC strongly predict high-risk clonal evolution in AA patients after IST and may be used determine at-risk patients for long term follow-up. Outcomes in patients with low-risk evolution are favorable but poor in high-risk evolution without HSCT. The clonal landscape differs between high-risk and low-risk evolution; MDS-associated genetic mutations are enriched in high-risk evolution, in particular RUNX1. Further study of the role of RUNX1 in high-risk clonal evolvers may give insight into leukemogenesis in AA.Figure 1: Cumulative incidence (CI) of clonal evolution since immunosuppression with death treated as competing risk. (A) CI for development of all clonal evolution in patients >37 years (B) and high-risk clonal evolution in patients >48 years (C) CI for development of all clonal evolution when baseline ANC >0.87x10 9/L and (D) high-risk clonal evolution when baseline ANC >0.87x10 9/L. [Display omitted] DisclosuresYoung: Novartis: Research Funding.

Heads-Up: Risk-Specific Neurodegenerative Mortality and Years-Saved Analysis on the US Olympian Cohort.

Purpose: This study aimed to identify the risk of neurodegenerative death (ND) that former Olympians endure due to their participation in sports grouped based on presumed repeated shocks to the head, and to understand the impact of their participation in such elite sports on their total longevity.Materials and Methods: The cohort included all former US Olympians, who participated in the Olympic Games (OG) between 1948 and 1972, and whose vital status and causes of death were verified (n = 2,193). Olympic sports were classified into three categories of exposure: Collision (the highest presumed risk of repeated shocks to the head), Contact, and No-Contact. The Fine-Gray competing risk regression model was used to compare the risk of ND where the No-Contact category was a reference group. The years-saved analysis was performed to quantify the number of years saved or lost to ND and total longevity compared with the US general population.Results: A total of 65 NDs were identified. Collision sports Olympians had a 3.11 (95% CI: 1.31–7.40) higher risk of ND while the Contact group showed a risk of 0.56 (95% CI: 0.21–1.48) compared with the No-Contact sports Olympians. Compared with the general population, the Collision group lost 0.61 (95% CI: -1.16—0.06) years of life from ND, while the Contact group saved 0.4 (95% CI: 0.26–0.54) and the No-Contact group saved 0.09 (-0.09–0.28) years of life up to the age of 90. Regarding the total longevity, Collision, Contact, and No-Contact groups saved 4.67 (95% CI: 3.13–6.22), 5.8 (95% CI: 4.93–6.67), and 6.24 (95% CI: 5.57–6.92) years of life, respectively, from all causes of death.Conclusion: There is an elevated risk of ND among US Olympians, who engaged in sports with the highest presumed risk of repeated shocks to the head compared with those exposed to no such hazard. Such risk does not jeopardize the total longevity among Olympians in Collision sports.

Handgrip strength stratifies the risk of covert and overt hepatic encephalopathy in patients with cirrhosis.

Handgrip strength (HGS) is a simple and convenient method to assess nutrition status in patients with cirrhosis. This retrospective study aimed to investigate the utility of HGS for predicting patients with covert hepatic encephalopathy (CHE) and patients at high risk of overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE). We reviewed 963 patients with cirrhosis and consequently enrolled eligible 270 patients. HGS was measured using a digital grip dynamometer. CHE was diagnosed using a computer-aided neuropsychiatric test. Factors associated with CHE were estimated using the logistic regression model. Predictors associated with OHE occurrence were analyzed using the Fine-Gray competing risk regression model. Of the 270 eligible patients, reduced HGS was observed in 102 (38%), reduced muscle mass in 107 (40%), and CHE in 53 (20%). Multivariate analysis showed that serum ammonia levels (odds ratio [OR], 2.23; 95% CI, 1.14-4.36; P = 0.014) and reduced HGS (OR, 3.68; 95% CI, 1.93-7.03; P < 0.001) were independently associated with CHE. During the median follow-up period of 24.5 months, 43 (16%) patients experienced OHE. After adjusting for possible confounding factors, multivariate analysis showed that reduced HGS (subdistribution hazard ratio, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.27-4.38; P = 0.007) was a significant predictor in the development of OHE. Patients with reduced HGS had a higher prevalence of CHE and a higher risk for OHE occurrence than those with normal HGS. The measurement of HGS could be a simple bedside modality to stratify the patients' risk for CHE and OHE.

A simple nomogram identifies patients with refractory ascites with worse outcome after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is increasingly used in the management of refractory ascites. Controversy exists regarding the predictive factors of unfavorable outcomes, useful for patient selection. The primary aim was to identify predictive factors of 1-year survival or recurrent severe hepatic encephalopathy in patients with cirrhosis undergoing covered TIPS for refractory ascites. The secondary aim was overall survival. Observational, retrospective, multicentric study, that included all cirrhotic patients treated with covered-TIPS for refractory ascites since 2001. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and hemodynamic data were collected at baseline and consecutively until dead, liver transplant or end of follow-up. The Cox model was used to identify predictive factors of overall survival. A Fine-Gray competing risk regression model was used to identify predictive factors of 1-year mortality or recurrent hepatic encephalopathy. A predictive nomogram was created based on those factors. In total 159 patients were included. Predictive factors of survival or recurrent severe encephalopathy were renal dysfunction [hazard ratio, 2.12 (95% CI, 1.11-4.04); P = 0.022], albumin [hazard ratio, 0.58 (95% CI, 0.34-0.97); P = 0.036], serum sodium [hazard ratio, 0.94 (95% CI, 0.89-0.98); P = 0.008] and international normalized ratio [hazard ratio 4.27 (95% CI, 1.41-12.88); P = 0.010]. In the competing risk analysis, predictive factors of 1-year mortality/recurrent severe encephalopathy in multivariate analysis were age [sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) 1.05 (95% CI, 1.02-1.09); P = 0.001], creatinine [sHR 1.55 (95% CI, 1.23-1.96); P = 0.001] and serum sodium [sHR 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90-0.99); P = 0.011] at baseline. Age, creatinine and sodium baseline levels strongly influence 1-year survival/recurrent severe hepatic encephalopathy in patients with cirrhosis undergoing covered TIPS for refractory ascites. A simple nomogram accurately and easily identifies those patients with worse prognosis.

Zinc deficiency predicts overt hepatic encephalopathy and mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with minimal hepatic encephalopathy.

Minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) is associated with poor outcomes and the development of overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC). Zinc plays a key role in the detoxification of ammonia, a risk factor of hepatic encephalopathy. This study aimed to investigate whether zinc deficiency predicts OHE occurrence and mortality in LC patients with MHE. This retrospective study included 100 LC patients with MHE. MHE was diagnosed using a computer-aided neuropsychiatric test. Predictors associated with the development of OHE were analyzed using the Fine-Gray competing risk regression model. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was carried out to evaluate the risk factors of mortality. Survival rates were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. Of the 100 LC patients with MHE, 41% had zinc deficiency (<60μg/dl). Zinc deficiency was observed more frequently in the patients with reduced liver function reserve. During the median follow-up period of 9.9months, 16% of the patients with MHE developed OHE. The patients with zinc deficiency had a higher risk of OHE than those without zinc deficiency (p=0.03). Zinc deficiency was also associated with poor survival (p=0.004). Multivariate analyses showed that zinc predicts the development of OHE (subdistribution hazard ratio [HR], 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-0.99; p=0.008) and mortality (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-0.99; p=0.02), independently of liver function reserves. Zinc deficiency is likely to be a predictor of both OHE development and mortality in LC patients with MHE.

Racial and socioeconomic disparities in retroperitoneal lymph node dissection and survival in nonseminomatous germ cell tumor: A population-based study

BackgroundThough testicular cancer is the most common cancer in young men, there is a paucity of epidemiologic studies examining sociodemographic disparities in adjuvant therapy and outcomes. We examined the associations of sociodemographic factors with retroperitoneal lymph node dissection (RPLND) and survival among patients with nonseminomatous germ cell tumors (NSGCTs). MethodsWithin the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database (2005–2015), we identified 8,573 patients with nonseminomatous germ cell tumors. Multivariable logistic regression and Fine-Gray competing-risks regression models were constructed to examine the association of sociodemographic factors (neighborhood SES (nSES), race, and insurance) with, respectively, adjuvant RPLND within 1 year of diagnosis and cancer-specific mortality. ResultsPatients in the lowest nSES quintile (OR 0.59, 95% CI = 0.40–0.88, P = 0.01) and Black patients (OR 0.41, 95% CI = 0.15–1.00, P= 0.058) with stage II disease were less likely to receive RPLND compared to those in the highest quintile and White patients, respectively. Stage III patients with Medicaid (OR 0.64, 95% CI = 0.46–0.89, P= 0.009) or without insurance (OR 0.46, 95% CI = 0.27–0.76, P= 0.003) were less likely to receive RPLND compared to patients with private insurance. Lowest quintile nSES patients of all disease stages and Black patients with stage I disease (HR = 2.64, 95% CI = 1.12–6.20, P = 0.026) or stage II disease (HR=4.93, 95% CI = 1.48–16.44, P = 0.009) had higher risks of cancer-specific mortality compared to highest quintile nSES and White patients, respectively. ConclusionsThis national study found multilevel, stage-specific sociodemographic disparities in receipt of RPLND and survival.

Impact of chronic kidney disease on oncological outcomes in patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer who underwent adjuvant bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy

ObjectivesTo investigate the impact of chronic kidney disease (CKD) on oncological outcomes in patients with high-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) who underwent adjuvant induction bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) therapy after transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT). Materials and MethodsWe conducted a multi-institutional retrospective study assessing 209 patients with high-risk NMIBC who underwent TURBT and subsequent adjuvant induction BCG therapy from December 1998 to April 2019. Patients were divided into 2 groups: those with preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (non-CKD group), and those with eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (CKD group). Primary endpoints were intravesical recurrence-free survival (RFS) and muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC)-free survival. Background-adjusted multivariate analyses with the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) method using the propensity score were performed to evaluate the impact of CKD on intravesical RFS, MIBC-free survival, metastasis-free survival, cancer-specific survival, and overall survival. Moreover, multivariable analyses were performed to assess the impact of CKD on intravesical recurrence and MIBC progression, adjusting for the competing risk of death using the Fine-Gray competing risk regression model. ResultsMedian age and follow-up period after TURBT were 72 years and 45 months, respectively. Of 209 patients, 71 (34%) were diagnosed with CKD before TURBT. Background-adjusted multivariate analyses with the IPTW method indicated that CKD was significantly associated with shorter intravesical RFS, MIBC-free survival, metastasis-free survival, cancer-specific survival, and overall survival. In the Fine-Gray competing risk regression model, CKD showed significantly higher probabilities of intravesical recurrence and MIBC progression, with an adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio of 1.886 (95% confidence interval 1.069–3.330, P = 0.028) and 3.740 (95% confidence interval 1.060–13.20, P = 0.040), respectively. ConclusionsCKD presents a risk factor of poor oncological outcomes in patients with high-risk NMIBC who underwent adjuvant induction BCG therapy after TURBT.

PD63-03 TREATMENT INTENSIFICATION AND OUTCOME IN HIGH-RISK PROSTATE CANCER:A MULTI-INSTITUTIONAL CONSORTIUM ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE:External beam radiotherapy (EBRT) with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), EBRT with a brachytherapy boost (EBRT+BT) with ADT, and radical prostatectomy (RP) with or with...

The VENUSS prognostic model to predict disease recurrence following surgery for non-metastatic papillary renal cell carcinoma: development and evaluation using the ASSURE prospective clinical trial cohort

BackgroundThe current World Health Organization classification recognises 12 major subtypes of renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Although these subtypes differ on molecular and clinical levels, they are generally managed as the same disease, simply because they occur in the same organ. Specifically, there is a paucity of tools to risk-stratify patients with papillary RCC (PRCC). The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a tool to risk-stratify patients with clinically non-metastatic PRCC following curative surgery.MethodsWe studied clinicopathological variables and outcomes of 556 patients, who underwent full resection of sporadic, unilateral, non-metastatic (T1–4, N0–1, M0) PRCC at five institutions. Based on multivariable Fine-Gray competing risks regression models, we developed a prognostic scoring system to predict disease recurrence. This was further evaluated in the 150 PRCC patients recruited to the ASSURE trial. We compared the discrimination, calibration and decision-curve clinical net benefit against the Tumour, Node, Metastasis (TNM) stage group, University of California Integrated Staging System (UISS) and the 2018 Leibovich prognostic groups.ResultsWe developed the VENUSS score from significant variables on multivariable analysis, which were the presence of VEnous tumour thrombus, NUclear grade, Size, T and N Stage. We created three risk groups based on the VENUSS score, with a 5-year cumulative incidence of recurrence equalling 2.9% in low-risk, 15.4% in intermediate-risk and 54.5% in high-risk patients. 91.7% of low-risk patients had oligometastatic recurrent disease, compared to 16.7% of intermediate-risk and 40.0% of high-risk patients. Discrimination, calibration and clinical net benefit from VENUSS appeared to be superior to UISS, TNM and Leibovich prognostic groups.ConclusionsWe developed and tested a prognostic model for patients with clinically non-metastatic PRCC, which is based on routine pathological variables. This model may be superior to standard models and could be used for tailoring postoperative surveillance and defining inclusion for prospective adjuvant clinical trials.

Retention of tocilizumab with and without methotrexate during maintenance therapy for rheumatoid arthritis: the ACTRA-RI cohort study

ObjectivesTo compare retention of tocilizumab (TCZ) as monotherapy vs combination therapy with MTX in RA patients achieving clinical improvements during the first year.MethodsWe performed a multicentre cohort study using a real-life registry containing RA patients who had begun TCZ with or without MTX between April 2008 and November 2016. Among patients with ≥50% improvement of clinical disease activity index (CDAI) during the first year (CDAI50 responders), we evaluated whether MTX use may have affected TCZ discontinuation during the second and subsequent years (maintenance therapy).ResultsAmong 510 patients with high or moderate CDAI, 328 (64.3%) were CDAI50 responders. The rate of MTX use was 53.0% among responders and 54.4% among non-responders. During maintenance therapy (mean follow-up 30.7 months), 43.9% of CDAI50 responders discontinued TCZ. The most common cause was efficacy loss followed by adverse events. Kaplan-Meier estimates for TCZ retention were 48.3 months (95% CI 42.0, 54.5) for monotherapy and 50.0 months (95% CI 45.9, 54.0) for combination therapy. According to Gray’s test, there was no significant impact of MTX use on cumulative incidence of efficacy loss or adverse events. In the Fine-Gray competing risk regression model, CDAI >10 at the start of maintenance therapy and age were predictive factors for TCZ discontinuation due to efficacy loss (hazard ratio 2.58, 95% CI 1.41, 4.72) and adverse events (hazard ratio 1.04, 95% CI 1.01, 1.08), respectively.ConclusionThere was no significant difference in TCZ retention between monotherapy and combination therapy with MTX.

Cancer is not a risk factor for bullous pemphigoid: 10-year population-based cohort study.

Bullous pemphigoid (BP) is the most common autoimmune bullous disease. Whether there is an increased risk for subsequent BP among patients with cancer is still unclear. To evaluate the risk for subsequent BP in patients with cancer. This nationwide population-based cohort study was based on data obtained from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Database between 2000 and 2011. A total of 36 838 patients with cancer and 147 352 age-, sex- and index-date-matched controls were recruited. The hazard ratio (HR) of subsequent BP in the patients with cancer was analysed using a Fine-Gray competing risk regression model with mortality as the competing event. The incidence of BP per 100 000 person-years was 17·2 in the patients with cancer and 19·8 in the controls; therefore, the crude incidence rate ratio was 0·87 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·53-1·36]. The HR of subsequent BP in the patients with cancer was 0·47 (95% CI 0·23-0·94) using the Fine-Gray competing risk regression model. Age (HR 1·05, 95% CI 1·03-1·07), diabetes mellitus (HR 1·69, 95% CI 1·10-2·59) and cerebrovascular disease (HR 2·14, 95% CI 1·36-3·34) were independent risk factors for BP. The incidence of BP in patients with cancer was not higher than in the control group. Cancer is not a risk factor for BP.