Embargo Research Articles

Sanctions as a Coercive Leverage Within ECOWAS

Over the past few years, West Africa has become one of the most turbulent regions in the world and has shocked the world community with a series of military coups. However, escalating tensions between the “rebel states” and ECOWAS have received the most attention. ECOWAS has a wide range of means to exercise pressure on its member states. One of the most powerful is sanctions, but after the recent military coup in Niger, as a result of which the Community imposed unprecedentedly harsh sanctions against the state, the situation has changed radically. The authors list factors that determined the order and reasons for the particular political and economic sanctions before the coup in Niger, analyze the events after it. The paper dwells upon mechanisms of their economic and political impact on the economy of “rebel states” and the long-run efficiency in changing their foreign policy direction. The authors conclude that the economic sanctions have had a negative impact on the sustainability of the long-term development of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, which forced them to adopt compromise transition plans. However, sanctions turn out to be inefficient in trying to change the political regime to the one desired by ECOWAS. The disintegration of the association as a result of the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States can be considered a result of the ECOWAS sanction policy.

The long-term impact of debt relief for indigent defendants in a misdemeanor court

US courts regularly assess fines, fees, and costs against criminal defendants. Court-related debt can cause continuing court involvement and incarceration, not because of new crimes, but because of unpaid financial obligations. We conducted an experiment with 606 people found guilty of misdemeanors in Oklahoma County, Oklahoma. Study participants were randomly selected to receive relief from all current and prior fines and fees assessed for criminal charges in the county. Fee relief reduced jail bookings 21 mo after randomization and the effect persisted over 44 mo of follow-up. Although fee relief reduced incarceration, financial sanctions had no effect on indicators of lawbreaking. Instead, the control group (who obtained no relief from fines and fees) were rearrested at significantly higher rates because of open arrest warrants for nonpayment. These results indicate the long-term and criminalizing effects of legal debt, supporting claims that financial sanctions disproportionately harm low-income defendants while contributing little to public safety.

Trade Sanctions and Supplier Stock Collapse

Based on data from 163 listed companies in Huawei's supply chain and other suppliers in the same industry from 2013 to 2022, this article systematically explores the intrinsic link between U.S. trade sanctions on Huawei and the risk of stock market crashes among its suppliers. The research finds that these sanctions significantly increase the risk of stock price crashes faced by Chinese suppliers, primarily by undermining their business stability. The impact is more pronounced on private and electronic suppliers, while state-owned and non-electronic manufacturing suppliers are relatively less affected.

The impact of financial sanctions on economic policy uncertainty: Global evidence

Based on panel data from 20 countries from 1991 to 2020, this study uses the difference-in-differences method to empirically test the impact of financial sanctions on economic policy uncertainty in sanctioned countries. The study shows that financial sanctions have significantly increased the economic policy uncertainty of sanctioned countries. This impact is mainly achieved through mechanisms such as increasing the national risk of sanctioned countries, reducing their exchange rate stability, and restricting their international trade. The study also shows that the impact of financial sanctions on economic policy uncertainty is more significant in countries with a high degree of financial globalization and a heavy foreign debt burden. The effect of multilateral sanctions is also more significant than unilateral sanctions. This study provides useful inspiration for policy responses to financial sanctions.

The Impact of Criminal Financial Sanctions: A Multistate Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data

We estimate the impact of financial sanctions in the US criminal justice system, leveraging nine natural experiments in a regression discontinuity design framework across a diverse range of enforcement levels ($17–$6,000) and institutional environments. We leverage survey and administrative data to consider a variety of short- and long-term outcomes, including employment, recidivism, household expenditures, and other self-reported measures of well-being. We find robust evidence of precise null effects, including ruling out long-run impacts larger than −$391–$142 in annual earnings and −0.001–0.01 in annual convictions, with no corresponding payment increases despite salient and heterogeneous enforcement mechanisms. (JEL G51, H76, J31, K14, K41, K42)

The impact of economic sanctions on cancer diagnosis and treatment in Iran: a qualitative study

BackgroundThe economic sanctions imposed on Iran have had a significant impact on the country’s healthcare system. The sanctions have affected the availability and affordability of cancer diagnosis and treatment services, leading to a range of challenges for patients with cancer. This study aimed to explore these challenges and gain a deeper understanding of the impact of economic sanctions on cancer care in Iran.MethodsThe research method involved qualitative in-depth interviews with 53 experts, including clinical and basic sciences specialists, who were selected through purposeful sampling. The data were analyzed through qualitative content analysis using MAXQDA 2020.ResultsA total of 900 codes were identified, categorized into three primary groups—input, process, and output—and further divided into 13 subcategories. Within the input category related to health systems providing cancer care to patients, several critical issues emerged. These included instability in financing mechanisms and regulations, shortages of materials, low-quality imported materials, high material prices, and loss of human resources. Meanwhile, in the process of delivering diagnostic and treatment procedures to cancer patients, concerns centered around delayed and inadequate care, non-adherence to guidelines, limited international collaborations, and reduced provider satisfaction. Finally, during the output phase, the main subcategories extracted were lower effectiveness, increased adverse events, and increased equity gaps.ConclusionsAlthough economic sanctions against Iran have not officially targeted healthcare and access to drugs, they have restricted access to standard equipment and modern technologies, leading to increased delays, misdiagnosis, and diagnostic and therapeutic side effects in cancer patients to the point of death.

Does National Insecurity Motivate Ambiguous Financial Reporting? An Insight Into Terrorism

ABSTRACTTerrorism brings forth social disorder and obstructs economic activities at both macro‐ and micro‐level. This study examines the quality of corporate financial reporting under the influence of terrorism among U.S. listed firms. Using the fixed effect estimator in a sample stretching from 2007 to 2020, I document that firms employ greater accruals in the face of terrorism, and accruals extend in both directions. This negative association stay robust with different model specifications and endogeneity diagnoses. The state‐level analysis supports this inverse relationship by revealing a larger decline in earnings quality among firms located in states where terrorist attacks take place. The channel analysis shows that corporate monitoring efforts, including board diligence, ethical values, and market attention, serve as a channel which transmits the impact of terrorism to corporate earnings quality. Additionally, economic sanction imposition from the U.S. government also curtails the detrimental effect of terrorism on firms' earnings quality. This study's findings shed light on corporate responses to terrorism threats through the financial reporting lens and suggest some implications as well as future research directions for interested scholars.

PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE AND ECONOMIC RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND TURKEY IN THE NEW ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

Introduction: The purpose of the article is to determine the prospects for the development of trade and economic relations between Russia and Turkey at the present stage. The relevance поставленной of this goal is due to the fact, that Turkey did not join the economic sanctions against Russia and took advantage of the favorable market conditions to increase the supply of priority goods to the Russian market, but the prospects for the development of these relations are currently not clearly defined, as a result of which the aspect requires further in-depth study. Methods: Research methods are analysis and systematization of information, as well as methods of generalization and analogy. Results: The results of the study show that Russia is one of the main suppliers of energy resources for Turkey, and Turkey occupies a unique position as the main supplier of consumer goods, such as textiles, clothing, food, household appliances and electronics. The study revealed significant fluctuations in the share of trade flows between countries depending on the foreign policy situation and economic sanctions, which reflects the high sensitivity of trade to political factors. Available data: The article presents data on trade turnover between Russia and Turkey for the period from 2015 to 2023. Discussion: It is concluded that the development of Russian-Turkish relations is based on mutual benefit, which allows us to judge their further development. Promising areas for the development of trade and economic relations between the two countries are: further development of parallel imports and Turkey's participation in supply chains, increasing the supply of Turkish-made consumer goods to the Russian market, as well as joint cooperation in the field of nuclear energy, including joint construction and commissioning of industrial facilities. In the current political and economic environment, new prospects for deepening Russian-Turkish relations have emerged, including currency cooperation and the development of the infrastructure of trade and economic ties. In the long term, both countries may consider cooperation opportunities in related areas, such as nuclear medicine, the production of isotopes and radioactive materials.

Megamall development in Tehran city: a study of the development process from the perspective of structuration theory

ABSTRACT Tehran, Iran's capital, has witnessed a boom in megamall development, resulting in significant social and environmental challenges. This trend contradicts the anti-consumerism values of Islamic ideology, particularly during a period of severe economic sanctions. Despite these contradictions, developers continue to invest in megamalls, supported by the municipality and popular among citizens. This paper, through the lens of structuration theory, seeks to explore the conditions providing the development of megamalls in Tehran. The constructivist grounded theory approach is adopted, and the data are collected through 61 semi-structured interviews. The findings highlight the dialectical relationship between agents and structures in this process. It reveals that dysfunctional structures, including regulations on capital and urban development (rules), spatial resources and power distribution (resources), as well as identity and lack of critical discourses in society (ideology), have provided conditions for urban agents to be involved in this process, which, in turn, reinforces structures.

Impacts of economic sanctions on population health and health system: a study at national and sub-national levels from 2000 to 2020 in Iran

BackgroundFormal evidence regarding the effects of sanctions on population health status and the health system is scarse in Iran. Given the intricate and multifaceted nature of sanctions, a nuanced understanding of their impact is imperative. We aimed to investigate the magnitude and effects of sanctions on population health and healthcare system during the last two decades in Iran.DesignThis is a mixed-methods research. We quantified the impact of sanctions using 28 indicators, i.e. macroeconomic, healthcare resources and health outcomes indicators from 2000 to 2020. The concurrent qualitative study aimed to explore the pathway of the effect by considering perceptions of both patients and health policy makers towards sanctions; Interview data was analyzed using content analysis.SettingThis study was conducted in Iran at both national and sub-national levels.ResultsOur findings revealed that the trend of 11 indicators (39.2%) had changed after the change point in 2009; four indicators (14.2%) significantly deteriorated after the change point. Further, five indicators revealed significant increases during the sanctions period: Out-of-Pocket payment (OOP), household expenditure on food and mortality rates due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), thalassemia and hypertension. Our qualitative analysis revealed that patients identified availability, cost and quality of medicines and healthcare services as the most significant challenges that compromised population’s health. From the policy makers’ perspective, the effect of sanctions on health system functions and infrastructures, i.e. economic, political, social, educational and research had significant repercussions on population health.ConclusionWe could not find compelling evidence to establish significant associations between the imposition of sanctions and the trend of population health. Nevertheless, our qualitative study revealed people’s deteriorating life experiences, e.g. increasing catastrophic health expenditure, limited access to necessary medicine, medical equipment, procedures and interventions, imposed by sanctions, with ultimate reducing impact on the overall quality of life. It seems that sanctions have negatively affected financial and physical access to medication and healthcare services. Nonetheless, Iran has demonstrated remarkable resilience against their highly detrimental effects, maybe due to its established economic infrastructure and healthcare system.

Do Economic Crises Affect Medical Education? A Narrative Review

Objectives: This review aims to investigate the impact of economic sanctions, as a form of economic crisis, on medical education. Methods: This research is a review of studies published between 1995 and 2023. A search was conducted in electronic sources, databases, and information repositories. The initial search yielded 313 articles. In the first screening, which involved examining the titles, 173 unrelated articles were removed, leaving 158 articles for the abstract screening stage. During this stage, 95 unrelated articles were excluded, and after accessing and reviewing the full text of the remaining 63 articles, 35 were deemed eligible for review. Results: Economic sanctions are defined as restrictions imposed by one country on the international trade and investment of another to force a policy change. Academic and research systems are often overlooked areas that are severely impacted by sanctions. In Sudan, for example, sanctions led foreign organizations to refrain from cooperating with academics in the country, particularly regarding the publication of articles. Importantly, the negative effects of economic sanctions on education cannot be easily remedied, even long after the sanctions are lifted. Conclusions: The effects of sanctions on education and health have been proven in many countries, including Sudan, Haiti, Zimbabwe, and Iraq. There is an urgent need to specifically focus on the consequences of sanctions on medical education above all other aspects.

Trade sanctions and Global Value Chains: A China-South Africa perspective in the age of sanctions

China has been an important trade partner for many African countries, and in particular for South Africa, whose trade volume with China has increased significantly over the past decades. Changes of global trade and Global Value Chains (GVCs) dynamics as response of increasing trade sanctions bring substantial economic challenges for both countries directly involved and countries not directly involved by sanctions. On the one hand, trade sanctions have direct effects on sanctioned countries. On the other, sanctions can have significant indirect effects on countries not involved, as a consequence of trade diversion, changes in comparative advantages, and geopolitical realignment. The paper provides an empirical assessment of Global Value Chains’ re-organization by China and African countries in the age of trade sanctions. It explores and quantifies the intertwined relationship between trade sanctions, GVCs participation, and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), with a focus on the dyad China-South Africa in a comparative perspective vis-á-vis other Chinese trade partners. The analysis is based on a purpose-built data set covering GVCs participation indexes on 66 origin and destination countries for 68 industries (ISIC Rev.4) over the period 2005-2018. A simplified evolutionary model shows how the indirect effect of sanctions on forward GVCs could be positive and sizable, the mechanism being the displacement of (heterogeneous) inefficient firms with (heterogeneous) more efficient ones; while the indirect effect of sanctions on backward GVCs is indeterminate. By zooming onto the China-South Africa relations, the paper sheds new light on the consequences of sanctions, as perceived from both buyer’s (backward) and seller’s (forward) perspective, in a so-called South-South trade partnership.

The Action Plan of the Ministry of Energy as a tool to conduct structural modernization and ensure Russia's technological sovereignty. Part 2

Subject. The article addresses problems of official data systematization in the energy sector, rule-making activities of ministries and departments of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The purpose of the study is to assess the situation in the energy sector, determine the relevance of the current Action Plan of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation for 2019–2024 in view of the new economic sanctions. Methods. The study employs methods of comparative analysis. Results. The paper established that the Action Plan of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation for 2019–2024 cannot be considered as an effective tool to carry out structural modernization of the fuel and energy complex and secure the technological sovereignty of the country. Conclusions. To change the current situation, it is necessary to rethink the principles of building the entire system of strategic planning.

Unraveling Incongruence: The EU Proposal in the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue

This paper explores the complexities surrounding the acceptance of the European Union (EU) Proposal in the ongoing Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. The incongruence between Belgrade and Brussels is shaped by several interrelated factors. Central to this discord is the premature transfer of authority from the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) to the EU. This transition was prompted by UNMIK's failure to safeguard Kosovo's non-Albanian population and the breakdown of status negotiations, culminating in Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence. Although the EU has facilitated technical agreements that have supported the region's trajectory toward European integration, it has also encountered significant challenges. Notably, the withdrawal of Kosovo Serbs from political, judicial, and law enforcement institutions, compounded by the destabilizing effects of the Ukraine conflict, has intensified the crisis. These dynamics have accelerated a reliance on informal agreements, which circumvent domestic legislative processes and are characterized by a lack of transparency. The EU Proposal seeks to expedite the normalization process but contains a contentious provision that implicitly demands Serbia's acceptance of Kosovo's independence—an issue perceived in Serbia as a transgression of its core national interests. While the proposal lacks formal legal bindingness, the EU wields considerable influence, applying pressure on Serbia through mechanisms such as economic sanctions. However, such measures risk exacerbating anti-EU sentiment within Serbia. The paper argues that the EU’s strategy, which emphasizes informal agreements and seeks to avoid overt confrontation, may yield eventual progress but also risks entrenching political tensions within Serbia and Kosovo. The long-term implications of this approach remain uncertain, posing potential challenges for the stability of the EU and the broader Western Balkans region.

472The Sanctions Principles-Based Regulation: A Blueprint for a New Approach for the EU Sanctions Policy (Part II)

Abstract Despite the tremendous number of studies devoted to the effectiveness of economic sanctions, the unprecedented number of sanctions applied and the recent European Union (EU) reforms on sanctions, sanctions effectiveness should be still a matter of debate. More than a year after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but G7-led sanctions have not materially hindered Russia’s war effort. This study intends to address this problem by focusing on how to make the use and application of EU sanctions against Russia more effective. In doing so, I argue that the main impediments to EU sanctions effectiveness are systemic in nature and inherent to the EU sanctions policy framework. The piecemeal changes of the EU sanctions regulatory framework undertaken so far have not solved these systemic flaws that undermine the effectiveness of EU sanctions. A fundamental revision of the entire system of the EU sanctions policy framework is needed. This study proposes implementing a comprehensive principles-based framework for EU sanctions policy, where harmonisation and the risk-based approach are its foundations, to make sanctions more effective. The proposed sanctions principles-based framework is broader in its scope than is currently the case; it covers a broader set of principles. The proposed frame includes all the stages of the sanctions process, is addressed to a broader number of actors and its foundations are developed. I recommend that this sanctions principles-based framework should be mandatory for use.

Unleashing Innovation Under Sanctions: The Catalyst of National Culture

ABSTRACTThis article explores how national culture moderates the impact of economic sanctions on a targeted country's innovation performance, using a dynamic difference‐in‐difference approach. Our empirical analysis utilises a panel dataset spanning 213 nations from 2013 to 2019. We discover that economic sanctions generally have a detrimental effect on the innovation performance of targeted countries. However, not all types of sanctions have the same negative impact on innovation. Specifically, financial, arms, and travel sanctions exhibit this negative influence. Furthermore, we reveal that under the sanction circumstances, countries characterised by high power distance and high uncertainty avoidance cultures tend to experience a higher level of innovation performance. Our findings remain robust after conducting various tests. In our subsequent analyses, we focus on different types of sanctions and find that the favourable impact of power distance and uncertainty avoidance culture on the relationship between sanctions and innovation applies primarily to financial sanctions.

The causal effect of economic sanctions on political stability: A two‐stage difference‐in‐differences analysis

AbstractThis study employs the two‐stage difference‐in‐differences (2sDiD) estimator to investigate the causal effect of economic sanctions on political stability. It contributes to existing research by (1) re‐evaluating sanctions' impacts on political stability using newly introduced causal inference methods, and (2) distinguishing the effects of sanctions across various political regimes and economic globalisation levels. The article argues that economic sanctions create economic hardships for the target population, leading to public frustration toward their governments, which stimulates political mobilisation and thereby decreases the country's political stability. However, sanctions hurt democracies more than autocracies because autocratic regimes can suppress public dissent through repression and citizens face higher costs for opposition. Moreover, economic globalisation offers targets alternatives to sanctioned products and services, potentially weakening sanctions thus damaging political stability more in low‐globalised than in high‐globalised countries. Empirical findings from 9230 country‐year observations between 1949 and 2022 largely align with the theoretical predictions, showing that economic sanctions undermine the target's political stability, with these destabilising effects contingent upon its political regime and economic globalisation levels.

THE GEOPOLITICAL AWAKENING OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR

The article analyses the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the geopolitical transformation of the European Union (EU). It examines the key changes in the EU's security, energy and international relations strategy, as well as the development of its strategic autonomy and role in supporting Ukraine. The study is based on the analysis of scientific sources and political articles related to the EU's foreign policy and security mechanisms. A comparative analysis of the EU's decisions on sanctions, energy security and military assistance to Ukraine is used. Expert assessments of the geopolitical situation and economic consequences of the war are also taken into account. The article contributes to understanding the role of the Russian-Ukrainian war as a catalyst for the EU's political and strategic awakening. In particular, it highlights the development of the EU's strategic autonomy in response to its energy dependence on Russia and the growth of defence cooperation between member states. The author also explores how the war has contributed to the consolidation of European identity and the strengthening of the desire for global leadership in the face of current international challenges. The author notes that the Russian-Ukrainian war has accelerated changes in the EU's approach to foreign and security policy. The EU has strengthened its strategic autonomy, increased economic sanctions against Russia and mobilised resources to support Ukraine. At the same time, the war has shown the need to develop energy resources independent of external suppliers and to increase the EU's internal defence capabilities. Ukraine's integration into the European space has become an important strategic direction of the EU's policy. An important aspect has been the strengthening of European defence cooperation, which demonstrates the EU's desire for greater independence in security matters. Ukraine's integration into the European space is becoming one of the key directions of the EU's foreign policy, which may accelerate the process of Ukraine's accession to the Union in the future. The author also draws attention to the fact that the issue of strengthening the EU's defence capabilities affects the problem of the international security system, which today, as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war, is undergoing the greatest transformations since the Second World War.

Innovation’s false spring: U.S. export controls and Chinese patent quality

This paper evaluates the effect of U.S. export restrictions, enacted in 2018, on China’s patent production. An analysis of patent-level datasets indicates a significant surge in Chinese patent filings in sanctioned technological domains. This quantitative growth, however, is accompanied by a decrease in patent quality, evidenced by reduced citation counts and market worth. Specifically, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have witnessed a substantial rise in patent filings post-2018, while private firms exhibit a more modest increase. Despite the surge in patent quantity, the overall quality of patents—particularly those originating from SOEs—has deteriorated significantly. This study contributes to the body of research concerning the economic consequences of the US-China trade dispute and offers original insights into the implications of trade sanctions on innovation quality.

The Historical Evolution and Essence of International Economic Sanctions and Countermeasures in the Light of the Objective of Ensuring the Economic Security of the Republic of Moldova

The international normative framework is very complex and covers a wide range of aspects in guaranteeing international security, which also affects national security. However, it does not eliminate or mitigate all security challenges, threats and risks. In this sense, it is necessary to analyze both the historical evolution and the essence and forms of international economic sanctions that aim to ensure compliance with the norms of public international law and affect not only the targeted state but also the economic security of its population. We can find a great diversity of definitions of economic sanctions, but the overwhelming majority of authors recognize their direct impact on the economic security of the affected state. This article reflects the classic and modern trends in defining the essence and concept of economic sanctions in public international law in the light of the imperative to ensure national security.