Financial Computable General Equilibrium Research Articles

Can Green Credit Policies Accelerate the Realization of the Dual Carbon Goal in China? Examination Based on an Endogenous Financial CGE Model.

Green credit is an indispensable funding source through which China can achieve its carbon neutrality goal. This paper quantifies the influences of different green credit scales on energy structures, carbon reduction, the industrial economy, and the macroeconomy. It creates a green credit mechanism related to green technology innovation in a Chinese carbon neutrality computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and integrates energy, environmental, economic, and financial (3EF) systems. The green credit scale can influence green technology innovation and hence CO2 emissions. The results show that (1) green credit can accelerate China's achievement of its carbon neutrality goal, and the larger the green credit scale, the less time it takes to achieve goals; (2) the influence of green credit scales confers marginal decreasing effects with realistic policy considerations; (3) using a cost-benefit perspective, 60% is the most appropriate green credit scale to use to achieve dual carbon goals in China; (4) the different green credit scales have a heterogeneous impact on the industry output, and high-carbon-emission producers from nonenergy industries need to pay attention to their green credit risk. This research provides a scientific reference for the policy design of China's future green financial market development.

Assessing the economy-wide impacts of strengthened bank capital requirements in Indonesia using a financial computable general equilibrium model

ABSTRACT After the 2008 global financial crisis, authorities across the globe stressed the importance of equity capital to absorb losses. While many countries have raised bank capital adequacy requirements (CARs), the comprehensive impact assessment of this policy for emerging economies remains largely unexplored. We use a financial computable general equilibrium (FCGE) model of Indonesia called AMELIA-F to investigate the economy-wide impact of a 100 basis points increase in the CAR of Indonesian banks. Bank balance sheets contract as they move away from holding riskier assets, aiding macroeconomic stability. However, both non-housing and housing investment contract as banks pass on higher funding costs, driving long-run real GDP below baseline. As we discuss, debt-to-equity ratios for these sectors, and the economy-wide private debt to income ratio all fall, thus aiding long-run macroeconomic stability.

Economic evaluation of transportation projects based on different financing methods: at the framework of financial computable general equilibrium model

Purpose- The purpose of this study is to develop a first fully functional Turkish Financial Computable General Equilibrium (FCGE) model that analyzes the economic impacts of infrastructure investment projects under different financing options. We examine three alterantive financing methods, i.e., public financing with tax revenues and government bonds, public financing with region specific tax policy and private financing. Methodology- The study employs Financial Computable General Equilibrium (FCGE) model. The FCGE model integrates the real economy with the financial one, and traces the flows of financial and real resources among economic agents at the same time. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models typically are comparative static equilibrium models of interregional trade and location based in microeconomics, using utility and production functions with substitution between inputs. The transport system enters the spatial economy through the costs of transport services. Transport sub models are applied to feed CGE models with cost changes in the transport sector as a result of policy measures. Our model is composed of a multi-regional financial CGE model and a transport network model. Turkish Multi Regional Computable General Equilibrium model constitutes of 11 regions. The model includes ten producers, one regional household, one national (or central) government and the rest of the world. Findings- The model is designed to analyze the economic effects of fiscal policies such as the transportation investment expenditures and alternative financing approaches on economic growth and welfare. It is possible to estimate growth and distributional effects of each project based on the financing method once the information on the investment expenditures, the construction location and the changes in the accessibility generated by the project are injected into the FCGE model. As a first attempt, we builded a Financial Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Turkey that FCGE models need, containing the details of financial institutions and transaction of agents’ assets and liabilities. The model specifies the behaviours of ten different sectors, one household, a central government, and the rest of the world. The model is designed to analyze the impacts of highway development with different financing strategies. We examine three alterantive financing methods: it can (a) public financing with tax revenues and government bonds, (b) public financing with region specific tax policy or (c) private financing. Conclusion- The main contribution of this research is to develop a first fully functional FCGE model to analyze the economic impacts of the infrastructure investment projects and their financing options on growth and welfare in Turkish economy. We develop a first fully functional Turkish Financial Computable General Equilibrium (FCGE) model that analyzes the economic impacts of infrastructure investment projects under different financing options. There are a number of ways to finance highway infrastructure investment: fuel taxes, user fees, trust funds etc. This Financial CGE model is expected to assess the consistency of highway investment programs under different financing options, so the government can make a decision on an approval for the project based according to their benefits and costs on national level.

Responses of monetary policies to oil price changes in Malaysia

Malaysia is one of the net oil-exporting countries that the government budget depends highly on oil revenues. The dependency on uncertain revenues faces the economic development of the country with significant challenges. Therefore, the monetary authorities need to be aware of the importance and the role of their policies on the economy in response to changes in global oil prices. For this purpose, this paper simulates the responses of monetary policies to changes in global oil prices in Malaysia using a financial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. It considers both changes (a rise and a fall) in global oil prices. The simulation results indicated that the Malaysian economy, as a whole, and the majority of industries gain from oil price rise and lose from oil price fall. Both shocks lead to the reallocation of resources and influence the financial part of the economy. Results also showed that tightened monetary policies are not able to reduce the negative effects of both shocks on economic growth and industrial output while the expansionary policies, particularly the combination of interest rate and reserve ratio reductions, are effective and are beneficial for economic growth and industrial output of Malaysia. If the government target is minimizing the rate of inflation, the effective policy in response to both global oil price changes is the reduction in interest rate. However, when the government target is more investment and labor employment, the effective policy is the reduction in reserve ratio rate in response to both oil price changes.

What impact do differences in financial structure have on the macro effects of bank capital requirements in the United States and Australia?

We investigate the influence of jurisdictional differences in financial structure on the economic consequences of bank capital regulation. We use two disaggregated financial computable general equilibrium models to compare the impacts of identical increases in bank capital adequacy ratios in the U.S. and Australia. In both models, this raises bank equity financing shares, and lowers banks’ risk-weighted asset holdings. Thereafter however, differences in financial structure drive contrasting outcomes: in the U.S., average costs of capital fall, stimulating real investment, while we find the opposite outcome for Australia. We attribute this to differences in the structure of bank assets (U.S. banks hold more risk-free assets) and the importance of banks as intermediaries (bank finance is more important to capital formation in Australia). This may explain why capital regulations encompass non-banks in the U.S. but not Australia.

Unconventional monetary policy and real estate sector: a financial dynamic computable general equilibrium model for Italy

This study investigates the effects of an expansionary monetary policy on the Italian economy and, in particular, on real estate (RE) as a commodity. RE is a key sector for the Italian economy. It has strong interactions with the other sectors, especially with the financial markets. Therefore, we develop a financial dynamic computable general equilibrium model to analyze the response of RE sector to a shock on money supply. The parameters of the model are calibrated on the financial social accounting matrix for Italy that identifies the economic and financial flows in the economic system in a well-defined time period. Our findings confirm that the policy has a positive impact on real economy and on the RE output, value added and pricing.

Reducing Fuel Subsidies and Financing Road Infrastructure in Indonesia: A Financial Computable General Equilibrium Model

This article analyses whether government policies that reallocate funding for fuel subsidies to investment in transport infrastructure improve economic growth and income distribution. We develop a financial computable general equilibrium model to simulate the fiscal policies that reduce fuel subsidies to finance road investment. The novelty of this article is a dynamic model that covers multiple sectors, households, economic actors, assets and labour types. We find that reallocating fuel subsidy funding to infrastructure investment positively affects economic growth but adversely affects equality. We also find that investing in infrastructure through bank loans results in better economic growth and income distribution than reallocating subsidy funding does. Lastly, we find that investing in transport infrastructure through tax revenue can improve welfare, economic growth and income distribution.

Mandated superannuation contributions and the structure of the financial sector in Australia

Australian workers must contribute a proportion of their wage to superannuation. The mandated contribution rate has risen from 3% in 1992, to 9.5% today, and is scheduled to reach 12% by 2025. We use a financial computable general equilibrium (FCGE) model to simulate an increase in the contribution rate. We find that raising the contribution rate has consequences for traditional financial intermediaries, and for financial structure more generally. This is of interest to Australian policy makers currently concerned with the size and role of Australia’s banks, and the leverage of the household sector.

The Economy‐wide Impacts of a Rise in the Capital Adequacy Ratios of Australian Banks

Regulators are requiring banks to raise additional equity to finance their activities. The benefits are understood in terms of reducing the risks of another financial crisis. But there are potential costs, including the potential for unanticipated macroeconomic impacts as banks reduce leverage. We use a financial computable general equilibrium model, containing disaggregated treatment of financial agents, to explore the economy‐wide consequences of an increase in bank capital adequacy ratios. We find that the macroeconomic consequences are small.

Regional Financial CGE Model for Infrastructure Investment Policy

In this paper, regional financial computable general equilibrium (RFCGE) model was developed. The RFCGE model is a useful tool in the evaluation of regional fiscal policies. So far, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have often been used to evaluate regional infrastructure investment policies. However, conventional CGE models do not consider financial assets, such as deposits, equities, and government bonds and decision-making mechanism of government. Therefore, applying CGE models might overestimate the benefit incidence of policies on the rural society. To confirm this theory, the RFCGE model was applied to regional infrastructure investment policy.

Economic evaluation of transportation projects: An application of Financial Computable General Equilibrium model

We develop a Financial Computable General Equilibrium (FCGE) model that analyzes the economic impacts of infrastructure investment projects and their financing options on growth and distribution in the Indonesian economy. The FCGE model integrates the real economy with the financial one within a unified economic system, and traces the flows of financial and real resources among economic agents. The model is designed to analyze the economic effects of fiscal policies such as the transportation investment expenditures and alternative procurement approaches on economic growth and distribution among socio-economic classes, linking the investment expenditures with specific financial resources. It is possible to estimate growth and distributional effects of each project based on the financing method over the construction and the operation and maintenance periods once the information on the investment expenditures, the construction location and the changes in the accessibility generated by the project are injected into the FCGE model. The simulations on the Indonesian transportation projects reveal that the government financing with tax revenues could generate higher effects on GDP than other financing methods.

The Costs and Benefits of Financial Regulation: A Financial CGE Assessment of the Impact of a Rise in Commercial Bank Capital Adequacy Ratios

Financial regulators in Australia and overseas are requiring banks to raise additional capital. The benefits of this are understood in terms of reducing the risk of incurring the significant costs of another financial crisis. But there are potential costs from securing these benefits, in the form of unanticipated macroeconomic impacts as banks reduce leverage ratios. In this paper, we explore the economic consequences of a 100 basis point increase in commercial bank capital adequacy ratios using a financial computable general equilibrium model of the Australian economy. We find that the macroeconomic consequences of the policy are small. Our results suggest that prudential regulators can move forward to secure the financial system stability benefits that they expect from higher capital adequacy requirements, without concern that significant costs will be imposed on the wider economy in the form of macroeconomic disruption.

Comparing the Impacts of Financial Regulation in Australia and the United States via Simulation with Country-Specific Financial CGE Models

Beginning with Johansen (1960), computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely applied to study the impact of a variety of economic issues of interest to policy makers. These include changes in taxes and tariffs, changes in labour force demographics and skill levels, the impact of epidemics and terrorist attacks, the impact of drought and water policy reform, and the economic costs of climate change mitigation (Dixon and Parmenter (1996); Dixon and Rimmer (2002); Adams (2007); Giesecke et al. (2015); Wittwer and Dixon (2015)). Despite the efficacy of CGE models as tools in policy analysis, key linkages between the real and financial economies are often treated implicitly; for example, the current account deficit is assumed to be financed in full by a foreign agent, e.g., via a small country assumption. In an explicit sense we may ask how the foreign investor chooses to finance a deficit, e.g., do they prefer to purchase domestic agent bonds, equity or a combination of the two instruments? What are the associated implications for relative rates]ofreturn across the suite of domestic financial instruments, and how do changes in relative returns affect domestic agent investment decisions, nominal exchange rates, and the real economy? This paper seeks to address such questions via the development of a theory of the financial sector for a traditional dynamic CGE model of the U.S. (USAGE 2.0). We begin with a brief synopsis of the construction of a financial database for the United States (U.S.), which documents the stocks and transactional flows of 5 financial instruments across 11 distinct agents. The financial database derived herein and the approach documented in Dixon et al. (2015), are then used to develop a new financial CGE model of the U.S. called USAGE2F. Explicit recognition of financial stocks and flows broadens the scope of CGE analyses to include the effects of changes in capital adequacy requirements of key financial agents, e.g., the commercial banks, as we illustrate with an example. The results are subsequently compared to findings of a similar policy scenario in Australia, which are outlined in Giesecke et al. (2016). This analysis serves to illustrate how the impacts of regulatory change (in this case, a rise in capital adequacy ratios) can be affected by jurisdiction]specific differences in the structure of the financial sector.

Assessment of a green credit policy aimed at energy-intensive industries in China based on a financial CGE model

A financial computable general equilibrium model is established to quantitatively calculate the systematic effects of a green credit policy. The punitive high-interest rate is applied to the energy-intensive industries as the green credit policy. This study is focused on the following industries: paper, chemical, cement, and iron and steel. Short-, medium- and long-term scenarios are used to conduct experiments representing the green credit policy. Then, a scenario is simulated wherein a green security policy and the green credit policy are carried out simultaneously. Finally, effects of the green credit policy, a differential electricity price policy, and a raised production tax policy towards the energy-intensive industries are compared. The results show that the green credit policy is effective in suppressing the investments in energy-intensive industries, and it is comparatively less effective in adjusting the industrial production structure. The green security policy helps the green credit policy to reduce the total financing of the target industries, but it brings more negative impacts on the economy. Although the policies of differential electricity prices and raising production taxes support the output structural adjustments, their negative effects are much larger than those of the green credit policy.

PERAN STIMULUS FISKAL DAN PELONGGARAN MONETER PADA PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA SELAMA KRISIS FINANSIAL GLOBAL : DENGAN PENDEKATAN FINANCIAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM

Global financial crisis started in mid 2008 has reduced global economic growth, and many countries even experienced economic contraction. To deal with economic contraction, various economic policies have been undertaken. Governments have increased fiscal stimulus through increasing expenditure and lowering tax while central banks have cut policy rates substantially. In some countries interest rates even reach zero or close to zero. Similar to many other countries, Indonesia has also undertaken expansionary policies, namely increasing fiscal stimulus and lowering interest rates.This paper examines the impacts of fiscal stimulus and interest rate cut on Indonesian economy using financial computable general equilibrium (FCGE) approach. The estimation results show a number of findings. First, the combination of fiscal expansion and monetary expansion boosts economic growth of Indonesia effectively. Relative to the effectiveness of fiscal expansion without monetary policy expansion or monetary expansion without fiscal expansion, the combination of those two policies is more effective.Second, looking into the components of GDP, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has a large multiplier effect, boosting aggregate demand through increasing consumption, investment, government expenditure, exports and imports. Meanwhile, from production side, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has positive effects on increasing production of all economic sectors. This effect comes from fiscal incentive (lower tax, lower import duties, etc) in increasing investment. Moreover, the increase in aggregate demand also encourages enterprises to increase their production.Third, institutionally fiscal stimulus and monetary easing has increased income and purchasing power of the poor and rich households in rural and urban area. This increase in turn results in higher all household consumption.JEL Classification: D58, E12, E13, E52, E58, H25, H31, H53, H54Keywords: Fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, financial computable general equilibrium, global financial crisis.

THE ROLE OF FISCAL STIMULUS AND MONETARY EASING IN INDONESIAN ECONOMY DURING GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: FINANCIAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH

Global financial crisis started in mid 2008 has reduced global economic growth, and many countries even experienced economic contraction. To deal with economic contraction, various economic policies have been undertaken. Governments have increased fiscal stimulus through increasing expenditure and lowering tax while central banks have cut policy rates substantially. In some countries interest rates even reach zero or close to zero. Similar to many other countries, Indonesia has also undertaken expansionary policies, namely increasing fiscal stimulus and lowering interest rates.This paper examines the impacts of fiscal stimulus and interest rate cut on Indonesian economy using financial computable general equilibrium (FCGE) approach. The estimation results show a number of findings. First, the combination of fiscal expansion and monetary expansion boosts economic growth of Indonesia effectively. Relative to the effectiveness of fiscal expansion without monetary policy expansion or monetary expansion without fiscal expansion, the combination of those two policies is more effective.Second, looking into the components of GDP, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has a large multiplier effect, boosting aggregate demand through increasing consumption, investment, government expenditure, exports and imports. Meanwhile, from production side, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has positive effects on increasing production of all economic sectors. This effect comes from fiscal incentive (lower tax, lower import duties, etc) in increasing investment. Moreover, the increase in aggregate demand also encourages enterprises to increase their production.Third, institutionally fiscal stimulus and monetary easing has increased income and purchasing power of the poor and rich households in rural and urban area. This increase in turn results in higher all household consumption.JEL Classification: D58, E12, E13, E52, E58, H25, H31, H53, H54Keywords: Fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, financial computable general equilibrium, global financial crisis.

A welfare policy analysis in the Turkish economy: A simulation based macroeconomic application of the deficit financing policies

In this study, by including 15 production sectors and linking real and financial sub-models through various channels of fund flows, interest rates, commercial bank intermediation, monetary and fiscal policies, a financial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which represents salient features of the Turkish economy, is formulated and counterfactual simulations are performed to explore the question of how changing the government deficit financing options affects the stakeholders and macroeconomic variables in the Turkish economy under both fixed and flexible interest rate regimes. In the benchmark, treasury bonds and central bank credits finance a certain percentage of the government deficit. In the deficit financing simulation scenario, the proportion financed by treasury bonds is increased while the proportion financed by the central bank is decreased under both fixed and flexible interest rate regimes to observe the effects of policy changing. Our simulation results show that deficit financing policy change makes commercial banks better off in both interest rate regimes particularly in flexible interest rate regime while household and enterprise sectors slightly suffer. The macroeconomic impact of the policy change is in line with the theory as the inflation rate decreases, and real interest rate increases in both interest rage regimes. Besides, though the real GNP slightly decreases in the short run, it slightly increases in the long run under both interest rage regimes.

A CGE analysis of oil price change

As Chinese economy system has been depended more on the import of petroleum with the development of China, the change in the price of international oil have caused concern among economists and policy makers. This paper is to present a financial Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy which integrates real economy and financial sectors, and to apply it to quantitatively evaluate the impacts on Chinese economy caused by international oil price changes. And the model endogenously determines the exchange rate, covering fixed, partially flexible, and completely flexile exchange rate system to consider the effect of foreign oil price changes from the point of view of macro and industrial aspects. Finally, this paper presents concluding remarks.

Macroeconomics of twin‐targeting in Turkey: analytics of a financial computable general equilibrium model

The paper provides an overview of the post‐1998 Turkish economy and constructs a macroeconomic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to illustrate the real and financial sectoral adjustments of the Turkish economy under the conditionalities of the ‘twin targets’: on primary surplus to gross national product (GNP) ratio and on the inflation rate. We further utilize the model to study three sets of issues: (i) the critical role of the expanded foreign capital inflows in resolving the macroeconomic impasse between the disinflation motives of the central bank and imperatives of debt sustainability and fiscal credibility of the ministry of finance; (ii) reduction of the central bank's interest rates, and (iii) a labor market reform of reducing payroll taxes. Our simulation results suggest that the current monetary strategy, which involves a heavy reliance on foreign capital inflows along with a relatively high real rate of interest, is effective in bringing inflation down; yet it suffers from increased cost of interest burden to the public sector, and strains fiscal credibility. In contrast, given the ex ante constraints of the domestic economy in the short run, an alternative heterodox policy of reduction of the central bank interest rate and lowering of the payroll tax burden in labor markets indicate strong employment and growth effects along with strengthened fiscal credibility.

The Internal and External Transfers of the Turkish Economy: A Financial Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

After the introduction of 1980 stabilization program, both the internal and external transfer problems gained importance for the Turkish economy. This study analyses interactions between the real and financial sectors of the Turkish economy within the framework of a Financial Computable General Equilibrium model, based on 1990 data. In the model, real and financial sub-models are interrelated through various channels such as flow of funds, interest rate and monetary policy. One of the main conclusions to be drawn from the analyses is that in the case of fixed real wages the adverse effects of policy changes on the economy are much larger compared to the case of fixed nominal wages.