Financial Amplification Research Articles

Macro and micro of external finance premium and monetary policy transmission

We establish basic facts about the external finance premium. Tens of millions of individual loan contracts extended to euro area firms allow studying the determinants of the external finance premium at the country, bank, firm, and contract levels of disaggregation. At the country level, the variance in the premium is closely linked to sovereign spreads, which are important in understanding financial amplification mechanisms. However, country level differences only explain half of the total variance. The rest is predominantly attributed to variances at the bank and firm levels, which are influenced by the respective balance sheet characteristics. Studying the response of the external finance premium to monetary policy, we find that balance sheet vulnerabilities of banks and firms strengthen the transmission of policy measures to financing conditions. Moreover, our findings reveal an asymmetrical effect contingent on the sign and type of the policies. Specifically, policy rate hikes and quantitative easing measures exert a more pronounced impact on lending spreads, further magnified through their repercussions on the external finance premium.

Bank capital shortfall in the euro area

We quantify the bank capital shortfall that results from a financial crisis by estimating a macro-finance dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that captures the interactions between the financial and real sectors of the euro-area economy. The introduction of both deposit and shadow banks captures several characteristics of the banking system and reveals a financial amplification mechanism. By using a combination of a large positive risk shock and a large negative investment shock, we show that a crisis similar to that observed in 2008 would generate a bank capital shortfall between 2.2% and 3% of euro-area GDP, which corresponds to approximately 207–282 billion euros.

Asset prices, financial amplification and monetary policy: Structural evidence from an identified multivariate GARCH model

We investigate feedback relations among asset prices and financial institutions and identify associated monetary policy effects within a system of US nonfinancial firms, real estate, banks and treasury bonds between January 1997 and April 2019. For this purpose, we propose a novel ‘economic’ identification approach to the contemporaneous modeling of conditionally heteroscedastic financial data. While financial amplification characterizes the relation between real estate and banks during the great financial crisis, such effects have been absent among stocks and financial institutions during the dotcom crisis. Interestingly, policy effects are especially strong during most intense market downturns. Moreover, policy sensitivity of asset prices starts increasing long before the actual burst of the bubble.

Leverage Control and Quantitative Management: The Analysis of Amplification Effect on Financial System

Maintaining the stability of financial leverage is a task in macro-economic management and also a challenge to be faced. Financial amplification characteristics dominate financial leverage system with low risk of capabilities, and the efficiency of this ability has two-sides results and proposes a lot of risks, however, most researchers have not found the best ways to solve this problem. Therefore, taking positive measures to strengthen the management of the financial system leverage feature becomes very important. In this paper, authors use comparative study and data analysis to illustrate the main problems of financial system leverage, the effect of leverage amplification characteristics, bi-amplified comparative analysis of profit and loss, and bi-amplification characteristics of the risk analysis. Meanwhile, based on five classified management methods, authors put forward countermeasures to the management of leverage properties in financial system. KEYWORDS: Financial System, Leverage Characteristic, Leverage Category Management. JEL CODE: G10 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15181/rfds.v19i2.1279

Financial Amplification of Labor Supply Shocks

We study how financial frictions amplify labor supply shocks in a macroeconomic model with occasionally binding financing constraints. Workers supply labor to entrepreneurs who borrow to purchase factors of production. Borrowing capacity is restricted by the value of capital, generating a pecuniary externality when financing constraints bind. Additionally, there is a distributive externality operating through wages. The planner’s allocation can be decentralized with two instruments: a credit tax/subsidy and a labor tax/subsidy. Labor shocks, such as the COVID-19 shock, amplify the policy responses, which critically depend on whether financing constraints bind or not.

Dissecting Mechanisms of Financial Crises: Intermediation and Sentiment

We develop a model of financial crises with both a financial amplification mechanism, via frictional intermediation, and a role for sentiment, via time-varying beliefs about an illiquidity state. We confront the model with data on credit spreads, equity prices, credit, and output across the financial crisis cycle. In particular, we ask the model to match data on the frothy pre-crisis behavior of asset markets and credit, the sharp transition to a crisis where asset values fall, disintermediation occurs and output falls, and the post-crisis period characterized by a slow recovery in output. Our principal finding is that both the frictional intermediation mechanism and fluctuations in beliefs are needed to match the crisis cycle patterns. A pure amplification mechanism quantitatively matches the crisis and aftermath period but fails to match the pre-crisis evidence. Adding a diagnostic model of belief fluctuations that overweights recent observations fits the crisis cycle facts both qualitatively and quantitatively. A Bayesian belief updating process fits the facts qualitatively but misses the extent of pre-crisis froth quantitatively. In contrast, a lean-against-the-wind policy has a quantitatively similar impact in both versions of the belief model, indicating that policy need not “get into the minds” of investors and condition on the true belief process. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Financial Amplification of Labor Supply Shocks

We study how financial frictions amplify labor supply shocks in a macroeconomic model with occasionally binding financing constraints. Workers supply labor to entrepreneurs who borrow to purchase factors of production. Borrowing capacity is restricted by the value of capital, generating a pecuniary externality when financing constraints bind. Additionally, there is a distributive externality operating through wages. The planner's allocation can be decentralized with two instruments: a credit tax/subsidy and a labor tax/subsidy. Labor shocks, such as the COVID-19 shock, amplify the policy responses, which critically depend on whether financing constraints bind or not.

Financial Drivers of the Euro Area Business Cycle: A Dsge-Based Approach

We estimate a modified version of the “Financial Business Cycles” model originally developed by Iacoviello (2015) in order to investigate the role played by financial factors in driving the business cycle in the euro area. In the model, financial shocks such as borrower defaults, collateral shocks and credit supply effects amplify economic downturns by reducing the flow of credit from banks to the real sector. In this novel application to the euro area, we introduce capital reallocation inefficiency, an innovation to the original set-up which allows for more realistic effects of entrepreneur defaults on economic activity. Our results suggest that financial factors, as captured by this model, played a smaller role in the euro area throughout the double-dip recession than in the United States during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. In a scenario on second-round effects implied by potential NFC loan losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we find large financial amplification risks to real economic activity.

Dissecting Mechanisms of Financial Crises: Intermediation and Sentiment

We develop a model of financial crises with both a financial amplification mechanism, via frictional intermediation, and a role for sentiment, via time-varying beliefs about an illiquidity state. We confront the model with data on credit spreads, equity prices, credit, and output across the financial crisis cycle. In particular, we ask the model to match data on the frothy pre-crisis behavior of asset markets and credit, the sharp transition to a crisis where asset values fall, disintermediation occurs and output falls, and the post-crisis period characterized by a slow recovery in output. Our principal finding is that both the frictional intermediation mechanism and fluctuations in beliefs are needed to match the crisis cycle patterns. A pure amplification mechanism quantitatively matches the crisis and aftermath period but fails to match the pre-crisis evidence. Adding a diagnostic model of belief fluctuations that overweights recent observations fits the crisis cycle facts both qualitatively and quantitatively. A Bayesian belief updating process fits the facts qualitatively but misses the extent of pre-crisis froth quantitatively. In contrast, a lean-against-the-wind policy has a quantitatively similar impact in both versions of the belief model, indicating that policy need not “get into the minds” of investors and condition on the true belief process.

Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Spillovers with Imperfect Financial Markets

We use a two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions and dollar debt in balance sheets to investigate the foreign effects of U.S. monetary policy. Financial amplification works through an endogenous deviation from uncovered interest parity (UIP) arising from limits to arbitrage in private intermediation. Combined with dollar trade invoicing, this mechanism leads to large spillovers from U.S. policy, consistent with the evidence. Foreign monetary policies that attempt to stabilize the exchange rate reduce welfare, and may exacerbate exchange rate volatility. We document em- pirically a link between UIP deviations and measures of credit market frictions, as predicted by the model.

Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Spillovers with Imperfect Financial Markets

We use a two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions and dollar debt in balance sheets to investigate the foreign effects of U.S. monetary policy. Financial amplification works through an endogenous deviation from uncovered interest parity (UIP) arising from limits to arbitrage in private intermediation. Combined with dollar trade invoicing, this mechanism leads to large spillovers from U.S. policy, consistent with the evidence. Foreign monetary policies that attempt to stabilize the exchange rate reduce welfare, and may exacerbate exchange rate volatility. We document empirically a link between UIP deviations and measures of credit market frictions, as predicted by the model.

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Pecuniary Externalities in Economies with Financial Frictions

This article characterizes the efficiency properties of competitive economies with financial constraints, in which phenomena such as fire sales and financial amplification may arise. We show that financial constraints lead to two distinct types of pecuniary externalities: distributive externalities that arise from incomplete insurance markets and collateral externalities that arise from price-dependent financial constraints. For both types of externalities, we identify three sufficient statistics that determine optimal taxes on financing and investment decisions to implement constrained efficient allocations. We also show that fire sales and financial amplification are neither necessary nor sufficient to generate inefficient pecuniary externalities. We demonstrate how to employ our framework in a number of applications. Whereas collateral externalities generally lead to over-borrowing, the distortions from distributive externalities may easily flip sign, leading to either under- or over-borrowing. Both types of externalities may lead to under- or over-investment.

Macroprudential Policy: Promise and Challenges

Macroprudential policy holds the promise of becoming a powerful tool for preventing financial crises. Financial amplification in response to domestic shocks or global spillovers and pecuniary externalities caused by Fisherian collateral constraints provide a sound theoretical foundation for this policy. Quantitative studies show that models with these constraints replicate key stylized facts of financial crises, and that the optimal financial policy of an ideal constrained efficient social planner reduces sharply the magnitude and frequency of crises. Research also shows, however, that implementing effective macroprudential policy still faces serious hurdles.This paper highlights three of them: (i) complexity, because the optimal policy responds widely and non-linearly to movements in both domestic factors and global spillovers due to regime shifts in global liquidity, news about global fundamentals, and recurrent innovation and regulatory changes in world markets, (ii) lack of credibility, because of time-inconsistency of the optimal policy under commitment, and (iii) coordination failure, because a careful balance with monetary policy is needed to avoid quantitatively large inefficiencies resulting from violations of Tinbergen’s rule or strategic interaction between monetary and financial authorities.

A brief assessment of Turkey's macroprudential policy approach: 2011–2015

The predominant role of cross border financial flows for macroeconomic and financial stability has imposed complex policy trade-offs for emerging economies, especially after the global financial crisis. This note provides a brief account of the macroprudential policy approach adopted in Turkey between the years 2011 and 2015, a period when global capital flows exhibited unprecedented volatility. Special emphasis is put on the use of monetary policy tools for macroprudential purposes. We first highlight the particular role of external flows and the associated tradeoffs in designing the monetary policy and macroprudential policy framework. Next, we describe the policy implementation by the central bank and the regulatory authorities, and evaluate the consequent outcomes. Our analysis suggests that macroprudential policies have improved external balances, dampened financial amplification channels, and reduced the sensitivity of the Turkish economy to capital flows.

Macroprudential Supervision: From Theory to Policy

Financial supervision focuses on the aggregate (macroprudential) in addition to the individual (microprudential). But an agreed framework for measuring and addressing financial imbalances is lacking. We propose a holistic approach for the financial system as a whole, beyond banking. Building on our model of financial amplification, the financial cycle is the key variable for measuring financial imbalances. The cycle can be curbed by leverage restrictions that might vary across countries. We make concrete policy proposals for the design of macroprudential instruments to simplify the current framework and make it more consistent.

Macroprudential Supervision: From Theory to Policy Action

Financial supervision focuses on the aggregate (macroprudential) in addition to the individual (microprudential). But an agreed framework for measuring and addressing financial imbalances is lacking. We propose a holistic approach for the financial system as a whole, beyond banking. Building on our model of financial amplification, the financial cycle is the key variable for measuring financial imbalances. The cycle can be curbed by leverage restrictions that might vary across countries. We make concrete policy proposals for the design of macroprudential instruments to simplify the current framework and make it more consistent.

Investor borrowing heterogeneity in a Kiyotaki–Moore style macro model

We introduce heterogeneity in investors’ ability to borrow from collateral in a Kiyotaki–Moore style macro model, calibrated to the quintiles of the leverage-ratio distribution of US non-financial firms. Financial amplification intensifies, because of stronger asset price reactions of highly levered investors.

Capital Regulation in a Macroeconomic Model with Three Layers of Default

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model for the positive and normative analysis of macroprudential policies. Optimizing financial intermediaries allocate their scarce net worth together with funds raised from saving households across two lending activities, mortgage and corporate lending. For all borrowers (households, firms, and banks) external financing takes the form of debt which is subject to default risk. This “3D model” shows the interplay between three interconnected net worth channels that cause financial amplification and the distortions due to deposit insurance. We apply it to the analysis of capital regulation.

Capital Regulation in a Macroeconomic Model with Three Layers of Default

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model for the positive and normative analysis of macroprudential policies. Optimizing financial intermediaries allocate their scarce net worth together with funds raised from saving households across two lending activities, mortgage and corporate lending. For all borrowers (households, firms, and banks) external financing takes the form of debt which is subject to default risk. This “3D model” shows the interplay between three interconnected net worth channels that cause financial amplification and the distortions due to deposit insurance. We apply it to the analysis of capital regulation.