Fertility Transition Research Articles

Contraceptive Change and Fertility Transition

AbstractOver the past half‐century, most countries have made progress through their demographic transitions with continuing declines in mortality and fertility. The major driver of fertility decline has been the adoption of contraception by women of reproductive age who increasingly desire smaller families. This paper documents the massive changes in contraceptive behavior that have occurred since 1970 at the global and regional levels and examines contraceptive use differentials by marital status and method. To understand the proximate causes of the rise in contraceptive use, we document the changes in the potential demand for contraception (among women who want to space or limit their childbearing) and the degree to which this potential demand is satisfied by the actual practice of contraception. The paper concludes with a confirmation of the strong inverse relationship between contraceptive use and fertility. The main sources of data for these analyses are comprehensive datasets with country, regional, and global estimates of historical trends in fertility and contraceptive behavior maintained by the Population Division of the United Nations.

Fertility Transitions in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries: The Role of Preferences

AbstractSince the mid‐twentieth century, the Global South has experienced unprecedently rapid and pervasive changes in reproductive behavior with fertility declining from high pre‐transitional levels to below 3 births per woman in most low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs). Over time a rough consensus has been reached on major theories about the causes of these declines. However, a controversy remains about the widely held view that changing reproductive preferences (i.e., declining desired family size and rising demand for birth limitation) are the dominant drivers of fertility transitions. Several studies question this conclusion and suggest instead that the rising implementation of existing demand is the main cause of the reproductive revolution in LMICs. The objective of this study is to reconcile the competing “demand” and “implementation” perspectives. This paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses of published decompositions which take trends in the observed total fertility and contraceptive prevalence and break them down into their respective demand and implementation components. The main conclusion from this exercise is that fertility transitions are driven by changes in both preferences and their implementation. Claims of a completely dominant role for either demand or implementation are based on flawed methods and hence must be rejected.

The Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Structural Change.

Despite recent economic growth and reductions in child mortality in many African countries, the region has experienced a slow fertility transition. In this study, we explore whether the slow structural economic change on the continent can explain this discrepancy. We construct a unique panel dataset combining Demographic and Health Surveys and nighttime light intensity data (an indicator of industrialization) from 57 countries at the subnational region level over three decades to analyze the drivers of fertility transitions across low- and middle-income countries. Our results confirm that household wealth, reduced child mortality, and female primary education are crucial for fertility declines. However, our analysis also highlights the importance of indicators of structural economic change, including the share of labor in nonagricultural occupations, industrialization, the share of women with higher education, and the formalization of the economy. Our simulations suggest that if high-fertility countries in sub-Saharan Africa underwent structural economic transformations comparable to those of other low- and middle-income countries with low fertility rates, their fertility levels could fall by 1 to 1.6 children.

Simultaneous and widespread: Colombia's fertility transition

AbstractColombia experienced one of the fastest declines in fertility in the world: children per woman fell from 7 in 1960 to 3 in 1985. Despite the stark inequalities of the country, the regional character of the decline has been neglected in previous research. This study examines the rapid decline in fertility rates in the country, focusing on regional patterns. Using complete census registers from 1973 to 1993, it provides a detailed empirical perspective on the fertility transition. By analysing spatial patterns with Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), the study identifies geographical clusters and explores the association between geography and fertility before and during the fertility transition. Additionally, new estimations of fertility rates from 1958 to 1990 are presented at the subnational level. The findings indicate that before the fertility transition, fertility patterns were influenced by historical legacies and geographical endowments. However, after 1964, fertility began to decline simultaneously across all regions, regardless of their historical fertility levels. While regional convergence in fertility rates was not achieved by 1983, the total fertility rate halved in most regions within just 25 years. Despite regional disparities, the fertility decline in the country was not only fast but also widespread. This simultaneous decline suggests that socioeconomic improvements alone do not always explain demographic processes.

Diverging destinies: How children are faring under demographic transition

India reached the replacement level of fertility in 2020. However, the journey of fertility transition is unconventional and heterogeneous within the country and across the different socio-economic groups. The fertility transition is considered to be faster than its socio-economic and health transition in several states. Thus, it has been presumed that the returns to fertility decline are heterogeneous across the states and population sub-groups. Our specific hypothesis is that although rich and poor, and educated and un-educated, everyone had significantly contributed to the fertility decline in response to family planning policies, only those socio-economically better-off have been investing relatively more in their children compared to the poor, and this has led to diverging destinies for children. We tested this supposition using a macro-level panel dataset (1992–2021), fixed and random effects, and IV regression models. The results confirm that child health care and outcomes have diverged while fertility declined from 1992 to 2021. These results are sustained in multiple robustness checks. While fertility is declining with highly state-sponsored family planning programmes, the persistent socio-economic inequalities are leading to unequal progress in health outcomes for children in India.

Jumping together or not? Associations between siblings’ relationship quality and fertility transitions

Individuals' fertility behaviors are likely to be associated with their siblings' due to social influence mechanisms and uncertainties involved in making fertility transitions. Such cross-sibling effects were shown to be stronger when siblings have similar demographic traits. While being a proxy for sibling relationship quality, no study has directly investigated the association between sibling closeness and their fertility transitions. Using four waves of data from the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study, this study adopted a dynamic design where the outcome is whether siblings had children in the same period between panel waves: “jumping together or not” and estimated multilevel binary and multinomial logistic models (N dyad-waves = 6314). We found that siblings with higher relationship quality were more inclined to have children simultaneously, compared to the other categories. In contrast to a sibling having a fertility transition alone, sibling conflict was positively linked to both not having children. In conclusion, sibling closeness is important for siblings’ fertility alignment, including both having and not having children simultaneously.

Determinants of men’s perspectives on women contraceptive use in Ghana: an analysis of the 2022 Ghana demographic and health survey

BackgroundMale dominance in reproductive health decision-making, specifically regarding family planning and contraceptive use among women, has been argued to have a significant influence on Africa’s fertility transition. However, there is a paucity of research evidence on the extent to which men influence contraceptive adoption and the factors shaping their perspectives on contraceptive use among women in Ghana. This study aims to examine the factors influencing men’s perspectives on women’s contraceptive use in Ghana.MethodsData for this study was obtained from the 2022 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS) conducted between October 17, 2022 and January 14, 2023. A total weighted sample of 7,044 men aged 15–59 was extracted from the men’s data file. Data was analyzed with SPSS version 27, employing both descriptive and binary logistics regression modeling. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05.ResultsThe results indicate that 63% of men disagreed with the opinion that contraception is solely a woman’s concern, while 59% agreed with the view that contraceptive use encourages promiscuity among women. With factors that significantly influence men’s opinion on contraception being solely a woman’s concern, men with secondary (aOR = 0.69; C.I: 0.57–0.82) and higher education, residing in urban areas, belonging to other Christian faiths, Ga/Dangme, Ewe, and Mole-Dagbani men were less likely to agree with such opinions. Conversely, men dwelling in the Coastal zones were more likely to agree with that view. Men exposure to FP messages on radio and during community durbars had higher odds of agreeing with that opinion. Regarding the factors influencing men’s perspective on the perception that contraceptive use by women encourages promiscuity, men who are 20–24 (aOR = 1.51; C.I:1.12–2.03) and 35–39 years in Coastal and Middle Belt zones, cohabiting and formerly married men were more likely to agree with such opinions. Conversely, men with higher educational levels, in urban areas and unemployed had lower odds to agreeing with such perception.ConclusionsThe study underscores the importance of men’s socio-demographic characteristics and their exposure to FP messages in shaping their perspectives on women’s contraceptive use. Policy implications highlight the need to involve men in promoting safe sexual and reproductive health practices.

Factors influencing male fertility in Uganda

Male fertility is an important component of population research. Against this backdrop, this paper aims to examine the factors explaining male fertility changes in Uganda. The authors applied the own-children method, as described by Schoumaker, to understand the prevailing male total fertility rate trends and to select datasets for inclusion during the multivariate analysis, using the Uganda demographic health surveys conducted from 2006 to 2016. A multivariable Poisson decomposition regression model was used to examine factors associated with male fertility changes. This model analyzed data from the 2006 and 2016 surveys only and included a total sample size of 7839 male respondents. The outcome variable for the regression model was children ever born (CEB). The regression model showed that differences related to changes in the proportional composition of characteristics contributed 113% to the change in CEB, compared with the differences due to reproductive behavior, with other factors being kept constant. The most important proportional changes that led to meaningful variability in CEB were observed among the following characteristics: occupation, number of current wives, total number of lifetime partners, type of residence, education, and age at first childbirth. Thus, interventions to delay the formation of cohabitation and marriage unions and the onset of childbirth or fatherhood among adolescents and young men below the age of 25 should be prioritized as potent fertility regulation measures. In addition, the focus on eliminating the lack of education and primary education as the highest levels attained among boys and men should be prioritized to boost a rapid male fertility transition in Uganda.

Do surging house prices discourage fertility? Global evidence, 1870–2012

This paper examines the relationship between house prices and fertility rates during the global fertility transition. We establish an analytical framework that considers the complementary nature of children and housing, leading to the hypothesis of a negative effect of house prices on fertility when they are highly complementary. We utilize a newly published house prices dataset spanning 1870 to 2012, covering multiple countries, and employ fixed effect and dynamic panel estimations to address identification challenges including unobserved heterogeneity and dynamic effects. Results show that surging house prices discourage fertility, with a ten percent increase in real house prices associated with a reduction of 0.01 to 0.03 births per woman. These effects are comparable to the impact of increased female education. Our findings offer insights into the evolving patterns of global fertility trends, underscoring the role of increased housing costs in shaping demographic changes.

A STUDY ON REPRODUCTIVE LIFE OF THE BENGALEE HINDU FEMALES: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Reproduction is the process by which new individuals of a species are produced and the genetic materials are passed through generation after generation (Tortora, 2003). The existence of a species is maintained through the urge for the reproduction. Pearl (1939) accounted the urge for reproduction as basic attribute of all living organisms. The expressive form of this urge for the reproduction could be accounted as reproductivity or fertility. The urge for the reproduction in human could not be expressed in its full strength due to several restrictive factors work on it. Demographically observed fertility or infertility is the result of a well-defined number of both biological and behavioural factors, which serve to mediate the influence of culture, society, economic conditions, living standards, and other similar background determinants on individual reproductive behavior (Frank et al., 1994). The hedonistic attitude of human for the reduction of fertility would be described through the "Demographic Transition Model" (DTM) which defines the transition from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy (Thompson, 1929). In the present study an attempt has been made to understand the current status of the reproductive life of the contemporary Bengalee females and the effect of demographic transition as well as fertility transition on the same. Materials of the present cross sectional study comprises with 200 adult married Bengalee females belonging to different caste group lived in a semi urban region of west Bengal. Mean age of the population was 32.63 ± 10.64. The result shows a remarkable decadal change in the reproductive life of the population. Age at menarche seems to follow the secular trend to being decreasing when comparing with a data (mean age 12.79 ± 41.37 and 13.41 ± 1.48 respectively). Comparison with a previous work revealed that the rate of literate women, employed women, the family income etc have been increased noticeable. The number of contraceptive used or adopt family planning families has also been increased remarkably in comparison with the earlier data (64.5 % and 56% respectively). Accordingly the rate of live birth has been decreased. The present study also differs from the age at marriage and marriage conception interval (MCI). Thus the present work revealed that the females (mothers) as well as the couples are more conscious about their reproductive life and adopt different family planning methods. Sharp decadal changes on their reproductive life could also be noticed which may be the ultimate result of the demographic transition.

Relationship between education and fertility preferences in Mexico: Lessons from Italy

Education is an important determinant of reproductive preferences. However, few studies have explored the evolution of its role in countries with different levels of fertility transition, due to the lack of adequate data. In this paper, we analyze the role of education as a determinant of fertility preferences in Mexico, a country which is rapidly approaching the end of fertility transition, albeit with substantial differences between different areas of the country. Using survey data, we contrast the results with evidence from a very low fertility country, Italy. The results indicate a persistent negative correlation between fertility preferences and educational levels in Mexico. However, a more detailed analysis at the territorial level reveals that in the most developed regions—such as Mexico City—the relationship is going into reverse, with more educated women showing a greater willingness to having another child, similarly to Italy, where higher levels of education have a positive effect on fertility intentions.

Child Fostering and Family Size Preferences in Uganda.

Mothers who exceed their ideal family size (IFS) may find themselves caring for more children than desired. In the absence of reliable and desirable prenatal controls of family size, mothers may foster-out children to reduce burdens of childrearing, particularly in contexts where fostering is common. Using six rounds of Demographic and Health Surveys collected in Uganda between 1988 and 2016, I explore the relationship between exceeding IFS and child out-fostering, proposing that fostering-out may serve to manage excess fertility and that this relationship may change as actual and desired fertility declines. Models are run separately for mothers and children aged 0-17 to explore mothers' overall out-fostering behavior versus out-fostering strategies for children. Results at the mother level suggest a strong positive relationship between exceeding IFS and out-fostering that remains relatively stable over time, but results at the child level indicate children's age explains the relationship between mothers' exceeding IFS and being fostered-out, demonstrating the nuances of how family size preferences might impact family life in practice. Though mothers report a desire for smaller families over time, childbearing and childrearing behaviors, including high fertility and child out-fostering, remain consistent over the course of Uganda's fertility transition, signifying the central role out-fostering plays in Ugandan families.

Understanding Asia’s revolutionary fertility change through Gavin W. Jones’ work

ABSTRACT Gavin Jones’ professional career, from the 1960s to the 2020s, coincided with one of the most important periods of demographic change—the Asian fertility revolution. This article examines how his prolific research offers a unique window into understanding the fertility changes in Asia during the late-twentieth and early-twenty-first century. Across his vast scholarship, Jones documented the fertility change in real time while they were underway, through careful measurement and insightful interpretations of their causes and consequences. As the spread and pace of fertility transitions varied across countries, ethnic communities, geographical regions, and educational groups, he assembled data to measure and analyse patterns and trends. He drew upon multiple theories to explain unexpected patterns. Finally, he documented the emergence of Asia’s ultra-low fertility in recent decades. Jones’ mastery of statistical demography combined with his intimate connection with datasets and vast knowledge about the region, produced a truly comprehensive scholarship on Asia’s fertility transitions.

Cameroon’s slow fertility transition: A gender perspective

We interrogate the proposition that men’s attitudes have constrained the fertility transition in Cameroon, where fertility remains high and contraceptive use low despite much socio-economic progress. We use five Demographic and Health Surveys to compare trends in desired family size among young women and men and analyse matched monogamous couple data from the two most recent surveys to examine wives’ and husbands’ desires to stop childbearing and their relative influence on current contraceptive use. In 2018, average desired family size was 5.6 and 5.1, for young men and women respectively, and this difference (half a child) has not changed since 1998. Among matched couples, the proportions wanting to stop childbearing were similar in wives and their husbands, but wives perceived husbands to be much more pronatalist than themselves. Surprisingly, men’s own reported preferences were more closely associated with contraceptive use than wives’ perceptions of husbands’ preferences. We discerned little evidence that men’s attitudes have impeded reproductive change.

From Bonus to Onus: Taiwan’s Demographic Transition and Economic Development from 1950 to 2020

The driving force behind population change lies in fertility. Over the past 70 years, Taiwan has undergone a fertility transition, rapidly declining from a high peak of natural fertility levels to an ultralow rate. This transition has released a substantial labor force and lead to a significant shift in resource allocation, contributing to rapid economic development in the late 20th century. During the same period, Taiwan’s population aging has progressed faster than that of most countries worldwide. The dependency ratio has negatively impact economic development, making social security an important aspect of resource allocation. The changes in age structure have introduced the concepts of “demographic bonus” and “demographic onus”. As a vibrant economy with a population of over 23 million, Taiwan has enjoyed the demographic bonus for more than a quarter of a century but is now facing the challenges of an aging society and declining fertility rates towards demographic onus. This article examines demographic transitions, economic performance and development in Taiwan from 1950 to 2020, elaborating on the definition, criteria, and quantitative delineation of the demographic bonus and demographic onus. It utilized population and economic statistics for a comparative analysis of the historical evolution, current situation, and prospects of the bonus and onus periods in Taiwan, providing a comprehensive narrative of its historical and empirical developments. Finally, the study underscores the complexity of balancing economic growth with demographic sustainability, emphasizing the necessity for multiple policy adjustments to address the adverse effects of demographic transitions.

Fecundidade e saúde sexual e reprodutiva masculina no Brasil: possibilidades a partir de base de dados populacionais

Abstract Scientific research on male reproductive and sexual aspects in Brazil is still in its early stages, mainly due to a lack of updated data to study these dimensions. This article aimed to present and discuss the main available population databases for studying this topic, highlighting their potentials and limitations. It is believed that with the release of the Brazilian Demographic and Health Survey in 2025, which will provide diverse current and unprecedented data, numerous research possibilities will open up. This will enable a new perspective on male fertility and sexual and reproductive health in Brazil, thus helping to better understand the fertility transition process in the country.

Role of family factors in provision and perception of social support for older people in Iran: a cross-sectional survey

BackgroundIran has experienced a very fast fertility transition. The process of demographic transition, coupled with modernization, has had considerable consequences for the structure and function of families. There is rising concern in Iran about a potential decline in family care and support for older people as a result of these changes. The main aim of this study was to provide a benchmark by examining current associations between family factors and older people’s social support, both perceived and received.MethodsA cross-sectional survey of a random sample of 644 people aged 60 + years resident in Tehran was conducted using stratified cluster random sampling method in 2015. Outcome variables were perceived social support, as measured by Social Provision Scale, and received instrumental social support. Multilevel mixed-effects models were used to examine the hypotheses.ResultsThe analyses showed that most of the family factors measured, including family size (p = 0.01), living arrangements (p = 0.05), and amount of contact with family members (p = 0.001) were associated with older people’s receipt of instrumental social support. Living arrangements and quality of relationships with family members were associated with older people’s perceptions of social support (p < 0.001). Also, a significant gender interaction was found in associations between family size and SPS (p = 0.03). Having a large size family was positively associated with higher SPS for women (Coef. = 3.9, p = 0.009) but not for men (Coef. = -0.4, p = 0.7).Conclusionfindings of this study support the premise that most of family factors play an important role in provision and perception of social support for Iranian older people. Further policies should mostly be selective of those at higher risk of low support such as widowed, childless, those living alone, having poor relationship with their relatives and those with worse health status. The results of this study may be utilized to target older populations who are at higher risk of low support with innovative programs that focus on building social networks and enhancing social support.

Facilitating fertility decline through economic development: a principal-agent analysis of local bureaucratic incentives in China’s fertility transition

Despite close associations, political science had weak explanatory power for fertility transition. It often depicts the political processes of fertility transition as direct and coercive policies and mechanical execution without consideration of indirect bureaucratic processes. Drawing on principal-agent and economic-driven theories, this study established a novel model using 1980–2000 Chinese provincial panel data: local officials facilitated fertility decline through economic development for career advancement. System generalized method moments (GMM) and ordered logistic regression (OLM) results showed: (1) gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth (OR = 0.012) and total fertility rate (TFR) decline (OR = 0.026) increased promotion odds, while excessive TFR decline (over 37% within one term) decreased it; (2) the critical age (59) and tenure year (one year before leaving office) positively associated with GDP per capita, industrialization, and lower TFR; (3) GDP per capita and industrialization negatively associated with TFR. Facilitating fertility decline via economic development was an efficient, low-risk strategy for local officials compared to radical birth control campaigns. It was the first study applying principal-agent theory to explain how bureaucratic processes enabled fertility transitions. It combined political and economic-driven theories on fertility transition, advancing political demography and refining the social science paradigm on fertility transition.

Fertility Transition in China and its Causes

Abstract Demographic transition faced by modern economies, including China, are among the most important long-term socio-economic challenges. In 2022, China observed its population decline for the first time since the early 1960s. The low fertility rate was of critical importance. The unprecedented one-child policy is quite commonly indicated as the main reason for the low fertility rate. However, the departure from this restrictive policy and the actions introduced under the two-child policy implemented from 2016, and then the three-child policy from mid-2021, have not brought an improvement in fertility rates. The aim of the paper is to answer the following research questions: Should the decline and persistent low fertility rate in China be attributed solely or mainly to the unprecedented one-child policy, which was in force for over three decades? Fertility transition in China is the effect of several factors and depends largely on the studied period. In the 1970s and 1980s, the government’s family policy was a key determinant of the decline in fertility. However, contrary to the prevailing belief about the determining influence of the one-child policy, the first stage of the implementation of the birth control policy, the Wan, Xi, Shao program, had a greater impact. Since the 1990s, the low fertility rate has been mainly explained by the extraordinary socio-economic changes and rapidly increasing prosperity of the Chinese people. Since the beginning of the 21st century, cultural changes resulting mainly from the integration of the Chinese economy with the global system have been crucial. Cultural changes have affected reproductive behaviour, marriage patterns, marriage postponement, birth postponement, fertility, and family size in Chinese society, which is observed below-replacement fertility. China’s demographic future depends on the fertility trajectory. However, due to the size of the population, but also the position of the Chinese economy in the global economic system, Chinese demographic transition may also bring significant consequences for the global economy.

Is Pakistan’s fertility transition stalling?

ABSTRACT This study examines the question as to whether Pakistan’s fertility transition is stalling. The paper reviews the trajectories of fertility and its various determinants and compares Pakistan’s trends with those of India and Bangladesh. Countries in the South Asia region share features such as cultural similarities (e.g. the low status of women and son preference) and high poverty levels. However, while Bangladesh and India are near replacement fertility today with modern contraceptive prevalence rates well above 50 per cent, Pakistan still has one of the highest fertility and lowest contraceptive prevalence levels in Asia. Our main conclusion is that Pakistan’s fertility transition is close to stalling in mid-transition. The key causes of this stall are a high and unchanging desired family size, stalling demand for contraception and relatively low satisfaction of this demand. These are important obstacles to future decline in fertility.