Fertility In Italy Research Articles

The social impact of labour market flexibilization and its fertility consequences in Italy

Very low fertility in Italy is a social problem as it is largely involuntary and represents a threat to the continuity of the society and to welfare state accounts. Rising economic uncertainty is considered in the literature as one of the driving forces behind the postponement of childbearing and the reduction in fertility rates in contemporary Europe. Understanding whether employment instability causally and negatively impacts fertility decisions is of fundamental importance to providing clear recommendations to policymakers. To the best of our knowledge, the only study applying a counterfactual approach to the impact of temporary employment on parenthood is an article by Vignoli et al. [11]. The present study replicates such a paper utilizing more recent data for Italy (2016, instead of 2009), thus covering a period encompassing the Great Recession. We adopt the potential outcome approach to causal inference so as to quantify the net effect of having a first job with a temporary vs. permanent contract on the propensity to first-child conception. Our findings confirm a clear-cut causal effect of temporary employment on first-birth postponement. Largely overlapping previous results, we demonstrate how precarious work has become a structural factor discouraging the transition to parenthood among young Italians.

Temporary employment and fertility in Italy: The effect of two labor market reforms in the early 2000s

Temporary employment and fertility in Italy: The effect of two labor market reforms in the early 2000s

A change of direction for family policy in Italy: some reflections on the general family allowance (GFA)

We present and discuss the General Family Allowance (GFA), in Italian: Assegno Unico Universale, a measure that the Italian Government and Parliament have put in place from March 2022 addressing the persistent low fertility in Italy. The GFA modernizes monetary transfers in favor of families with children in Italy, covering large groups of families that were previously excluded from full benefits. Even if the aim of the GFA is to support fertility rather than to alleviate child poverty, it is likely that this measure will help to reduce poverty, especially for families with children previously excluded from significant cash contributions, such as recently resident foreigners and the unemployed. In addition, as GFA amounts are modest for wealthier couples, its potential effect on fertility—if there will be any—should be limited to couples with modest incomes. The GFA is also compared with the different systems of monetary transfers in favor of families with children of developed countries.

Immigrant Supply of Marketable Child Care and Native Fertility in Italy

The availability of child-care services has often been advocated as one of the instruments to counter the fertility decline observed in many high-income countries. In the recent past large inflows of lowskilled migrants have substantially increased the supply of child-care services. In this paper we examine if the flow of immigrants as actually affected fertility exploiting the natural experiment occurred in Italy in 2007, when a large inflow of migrants - many of them specialized in the supply of child care - arrived unexpectedly. With a difference-in-differences method, we show that newly arrived immigrant female workers have increased the number of native births by roughly 2 per cent. We validate our result by the implementation of an instrumental variable approach and several robustness tests, all concluding that the increase in the supply of child-care services by immigrants has positively affected native fertility choice.

Immigrant supply of marketable child care and native fertility in Italy

AbstractThe availability of child-care services has often been advocated as one of the instruments to counter the fertility decline observed in many high-income countries. In the recent past, large inflows of low-skilled migrants have substantially increased the supply of child-care services. In this paper, we examine if immigration has actually affected fertility exploiting the natural experiment occurred in Italy in 2007, when a large inflow of migrants—many of them specialized in the supply of child care—arrived unexpectedly. With a difference-in-differences method, we show that immigrant female workers have increased native births by a number that ranges roughly from 2% to 4%. We validate our result by the implementation of an instrumental variable approach and several robustness tests, all concluding that the increase in the supply of child-care services by immigrant women has positively affected native fertility.

High-to-Low (Regional) Fertility Transitions in a Peripheral European Country: The Contribution of Exploratory Time Series Analysis

Diachronic variations in demographic rates have frequently reflected social transformations and a (more or less evident) impact of sequential economic downturns. By assessing changes over time in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at the regional scale in Italy, our study investigates the long-term transition (1952–2019) characteristic of Mediterranean fertility, showing a continuous decline of births since the late 1970s and marked disparities between high- and low-fertility regions along the latitude gradient. Together with a rapid decline in the country TFR, the spatiotemporal evolution of regional fertility in Italy—illustrated through an exploratory time series statistical approach—outlines the marked divide between (wealthier) Northern regions and (economically disadvantaged) Southern regions. Non-linear fertility trends and increasing spatial heterogeneity in more recent times indicate the role of individual behaviors leveraging a generalized decline in marriage and childbearing propensity. Assuming differential responses of regional fertility to changing socioeconomic contexts, these trends are more evident in Southern Italy than in Northern Italy. Reasons at the base of such fertility patterns were extensively discussed focusing—among others—on the distinctive contribution of internal and international migrations to regional fertility rates. Based on these findings, Southern Italy, an economically disadvantaged, peripheral region in Mediterranean Europe, is taken as a paradigmatic case of demographic shrinkage—whose causes and consequences can be generalized to wider contexts in (and outside) Europe.

Migrants' Fertility in Italy: A Comparison Between Origin and Destination.

Previous research has analyzed the effect of migration on fertility, and a number of hypotheses have been developed: namely adaptation, socialization, selection, disruption and interrelation of events. Comparison among stayers in the origin countries, migrants and non-migrants in the destination country is essential to gain better understanding of the effects of migration on fertility. However, this joint comparison has been rarely conducted. We sought to fill this gap and analyze migrants' fertility in Italy. By merging different data sources for the first time, we were able to compare our target group of migrant women, respectively, born in Albania, Morocco and Ukraine with both Italian non-migrants and stayers in the country of origin. Considering the first three orders of births, multi-process hazard models were estimated in order to provide a more exhaustive and diversified scenario and to test the existing hypotheses. The results show that there is no single model of fertility for migrants in Italy. In addition, some hypotheses provide a better explanation of the fertility behavior than others do. Among women from Morocco, the socialization hypothesis tends to prevail, whereas Albanians' fertility is mostly explained in terms of adaptation. Disruption emerged as the main mechanism able to explain the fertility of migrants from Ukraine, and a clear interrelation between fertility and migration is apparent for women from Albania and Morocco, but only for the first birth.

Toward an unwanted dividend? Fertility decline and the North–South divide in Italy, 1952–2018

Fertility, a key process shaping long-term population dynamics, has reflected demographic transitions and responds—more or less rapidly—to economic downturns. Assuming a non-neutral role of space on birth rates, the present study investigates the spatio-temporal evolution (1952–2018) of total fertility rate (TFR) at regional scale in Italy, a country with intense decline of births and enlarged socioeconomic divides between the wealthiest Northern regions and the most disadvantaged Southern regions. A progressive reduction of the traditional North–South fertility divide was observed in Italy since the 1980s with a rapid decline of TFR. Results of descriptive statistics and time series analysis indicate that regional fertility in Italy was increasingly associated with economic downturns. Considering the spatial response of birth rates to economic expansions and recessions, heterogeneous regional fertility trends underlie more individualistic behaviors that reflect a different propensity to childbearing in recent times. With both expansion and recession, fertility rates in Northern Italy—thanks to the contribution of internal and international migrations—were responding more rapidly to economic downturns than in Southern Italy—a disadvantaged region with a more stagnant population, emigration and aging, reverting the typical framework of the 1950s.

Fertility sparing surgery in epithelial ovarian cancer in Italy: perceptions, practice, and main issues

About 2.7% of patients epithelial ovarian cancers (EOC) are younger than 40 and present with stage I disease. For this subset of women, the issue of fertility sparing surgery (FSS) has become critical. The aim of this survey was to investigate the management of EOC patients desiring to preserve fertility in Italy. A questionnaire consisting of 30 items was developed to evaluate: patient-selection criteria, rate of FSS, patient’s counseling- and pregnancy-timing, fertility preservation, obstetrics, and oncologic outcomes. One expert clinician for each of 50 major gynecologic oncology centers was invited to participate. Data were entered into a database and statistically analyzed. 74% of questionnaires were complete. The proportion of EOC patients treated with FSS was <10%, 10%–20% and >20% in 70.3%, 24.3% and 5.4% of cases, respectively. Age, fertility preservation desire, histotype, and stage were considered relevant to select patients for a conservative treatment for 64.8%, 72.9%, and 78.3% of responders, respectively. Only 17 centers (45.9%) resulted to have an assisted reproductive technique service and Obstetrics Department. Our survey highlights discrepancies among oncologists in the management of patients with early EOC undergoing FSS. More efforts should be made to define and broadcast the best management before and after surgery.

Validation of the soil Biological Fertility Index (BFI) using a multidimensional statistical approach: A country-scale exercise

The soil Biological Fertility Index (BFI) is an indicator system recently proposed to monitoring soil fertility in Italy by composing 6 biological variables derived from field sampling and standard laboratory analysis. Large-scale validation of the BFI is still lacking. By using parametric/non-parametric correlations and multivariate statistical analysis, this study compares the statistical distribution of the BFI over 1079 soil samples representative of various environmental contexts in Italy with 8 alternative indicators formulated according to different aggregation rules and weighting techniques of the 6 variables composing the BFI. Our results demonstrate that the BFI is stable to changes in the composing variables, aggregation rules and weighting techniques, confirming its appropriateness as a multi-domain indicator of biological fertility specifically designed for assessment of Italian soils.

The impact of education on fertility in Italy. Changes across cohorts and south–north differences

Several studies suggest that over the last decades in Italy the negative effects of women’s education on fertility have attenuated. However, recent analyses developed in other countries highlight that selection bias and potential endogeneity of education should be taken into account. Using data from the ISTAT multipurpose survey ‘Famiglia e Soggetti Sociali’, conducted in 2009, we apply a multiprocess model (one hazard equation for the first three birth orders and one ordered probit equation for the probability to achieve a specific level of education) with potentially correlated unobserved heterogeneity components at the individual level. Our results show that the role of education on fertility behaviours not only remains important but also tends to have an increasing relevance among younger cohorts. On the one hand, a higher proportion of highly educated women postpone first childbirth or remain childless; on the other hand, among those who decide to become mothers, we found a positive effect of higher education on the propensity to have a second child, a result that can be interpreted in terms of a time-squeeze effect among tertiary educated women. Relevant territorial differences emerge relating to the effect of higher education on the third child birth, being positive in the north of the country and negative in the south.

The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. PremiseDuring the last four decades of the 20th century, the average total fertility rate (TFR) has continuously dropped in Europe, as it generally has in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. The aggregate trend covers considerable differences across Europe, with the main differences appearing between northern and southern European countries (Eurostat 2012).During the same period, important changes have also occurred in the labour market arrangements of both men and women, with changes in individuals' and couples' economic conditions. Whereas by the 1980s the fall in fertility was coupled with a rise in female employment, since the late 1980s the fall has been accompanied by a rise in unemployment, particularly among women.Explaining the determinants of such a fall in fertility and the links with changes in the labour market statuses of both men and women has become a major topic over the last years (D'Addio and Mira d'Ercole 2005; Kreyenfeld 2010).The rise in unemployment for women and men in southern and central European countries that occurred during the 1990s has been proposed as an explanation for the more pronounced decrease in the TFR in these countries, as in other countries with low female labour force participation rates (Ahn and Mira 2002; Adsera 2005; Engelhardt and Prskawetz 2004). This evidence highlights the need to further examine the role of unemployment in fertility behaviour.This paper seeks to describe the connections between fertility and unemployment in Italy from a gender-based and geographic perspective. Italian workers have experienced a rising trend of unemployment - with gender and regional differences - since the mid-nineties, resulting in a feeling of uncertainty about the future. We are in agreement with the hypothesis that macro-level economic conditions are likely to be related to fertility (Brewster and Rindfuss 2000): in particular, economic uncertainty can induce a short-term reduction in fertility that is presumably due to the postponement of decisions to have an (additional) child until the economy recovers.We utilised time series of aggregate data on fertility and unemployment during the interval 1995-2012, which includes the period of economic downturn that began at the end of 2007.We began from the hypothesis that the connection between unemployment and fertility differs among the various Italian regions, and we used a regression dynamic model to evaluate whether changes in fertility in different Italian geographic areas are more related to changes in male or female unemployment, as well as the strength of the link. Moreover, we paid particular attention to specific temporal links between the two series in different geographical areas.The structure of the paper is as follows:- Discussion of the literature and previous research on the relationship between fertility and unemployment of both men and women. We utilised aggregate data, but we also referred to studies of individual-level data to understand how the issue has been addressed by different approaches;- Discussion of these relationships in Italy within the European context;- Methodological approach and analysis of aggregate trends of fertility and unemployment in Italy by gender and geographic area; and- Discussion of the results.2. Unemployment and fertility: A complex relationshipA modern discussion on fertility in developed countries began in the 1960s and focused on the importance of socio-economic factors at the community or country level, 4 the incompatibility between work and family, increasing female education, and the roles of women in different contexts related to specific welfare policies (Oppenheimer 1988; McDonald 2006; Pison 2009).The decrease in fertility rates in the 1960s and 1970s in most industrialised economies was correlated with an increase in female employment (Adsera 2004). …

The Delayed Fertility Transition in North-East Italy

The transitional decline of fertility in Italy has never been studied using micro-data, with the exception of small areas. For the first time, we use individual retrospective fertility data collected for all the ever married women living in 20 % of households subjected to census in 1971 in the Veneto region (North-East Italy), a ‘late-comer’ area in the context of Western European fertility decline (TFR = 5.0 in 1871 and 1921, 2.5 in 1951 and 1971). In order to consider broad explanations of fertility decline, we combine individual retrospective data with other information available at two territorial levels (58 districts and 582 municipalities), using a three-level clustered regression model (district, municipality, woman). The main results are: (1) even if the (few) women with 8 + years of schooling born in the last decades of the nineteenth century already had a TFR around two, this value is not seen among women with low levels of education until those born 50 years later; (2) the link between fertility and secularization strengthens cohort after cohort, whereas the connections between fertility and industrialization and fertility and urbanization weaken; (3) throughout the period, the statistical inverse relationship between education and fertility is strong, both at the territorial and individual level.

Where, in which way and to what extent can Italian fertility grow in the next 15 years?

Objective: The study aims at analysing the recent trends in fertility in Italy and at discussing its possible future trends. Methods: We analyse the evolution of demographic indicators, such as the total fertility rate and the maternal age in Italy, in the last 30 years and we look for the most relevant determinants of birth postponement. We also discuss the most recent fertility forecasts for Italy and their implications. Results: In Italy, the total fertility rate has declined sharply in the last 30 years, reaching a level among the lowest in the world. However, in the last decade a reversal in this trend has been recorded. We here show that, net of the effect of immigration, this reversal is mainly due to a recovery of postponed births after age 30. Nevertheless, this recovery is not sufficient to raise the total fertility rates up to the replacement level. The reasons for this insufficient recovery are related both to the marked delay in transition to adulthood and to the difficult reconciliation of work and maternity for Italian women, both hampering the fertility rates. Conclusions: The fertility decline in Italy has finally stopped in the last years even if the maternal age is continuously increasing. However, without ad hoc family policies the fertility recovery will be weak and limited to those areas of the country with a better welfare system and economically more developed.

Illumination with a Dim Bulb? What do social scientists learn by employing qualitative data analysis software (QDAS) in the service of multi-method designs?

Although there has been much optimistic discussion of integrating quantitative and qualitative findings into sociological analysis, there remains a gap regarding the application of mixed approaches. We examine the potential gains and pitfalls of such integration in the context of the growing analytic power of contemporary qualitative data analysis software (QDAS) programs. We illustrate the issues with our own research in a mixed-methods project examining low fertility in Italy, a project that combines analysis of large nationally representative survey data with qualitative in-depth interviews with women across four (4) cities in Italy. Despite the enthusiasm for mixed-methods research, the available software appears to be underutilized. In addition, we suggest that the sociological research community will want to address several conceptual and inferential issues with these approaches.

Brightening the Bulb

We thank the several commentators for their careful reading of our manuscript (hereafter WJP) and, even more, for their insightful reactions to our work and ideas. The range of issues raised in these four commentaries is quite broad – from specific nitty-gritty details of software design and utilization to deep questions about epistemology, and so range our responses below. In our response, we remark on issues raised at several levels. In all cases our vantage point is with a look to the future. Even though questioned in our original title whether the bulb might be dim, we are also of the view that the bulb’s luminosity will no-doubt increase in the years to come. To put it most succinctly, we are very much of the view that Qualitative Data Analysis Software (hereafter QDAS) is of great value to a wide range of social scientists. We see QDAS as being of use to a spectrum of research investigative styles, from quantitative to qualitative. Applications should expand in conventional mainline social science disciplines, and also within applied and interstitial fields, such as education, and health, and public policy. (The commentaries also reflect upon the QNA paper, of which we are not a part and have not read as of this writing.) As background, readers may find it of value to know that ours is a mixed disciplinary team of authors (1 sociologist; 2 cultural anthropologists); furthermore, the overarching project from which WJP is drawn is a mixed methods research investigation that involved anthropologists, sociologists, and demographers. We would like to think that whatever strengths or weaknesses characterize WJP, they are not attributable simply to the wearing of disciplinary methodological or epistemological blinders. Our motivation for producing the WJP manuscript grew out of our project efforts and our attempts to understand very low fertility in Italy using both (now-conventional?) longitudinal survey data with multivariate methods (see, e.g. Kertzer et al., 2009), and the challenge of dealing with a qualitative arm of the project that drew on extensive in-depth interviews (along with some ethnography) mentioned in the WJP text. We are gratified that commentators see value in our effort. At the same time, the commentaries clearly exhibit a range of opinions about the promise of such software and associated methods (and in our application of it!). We are encouraged that Gibbs agrees with us “… that there is scope for a lot more use of QDAS’s functions….” Junker appears to be less sanguine, remarking that he is “not entirely convinced…” about these new tools. Franzosi’s enlighteningly anecdotal comments seem to align with our own view both positively and negatively (“I share what the authors write about CAQDAS approaches” et seq.). Bazeley concurs that we demonstrate underutilization of the software, but argues that we are “dismissive of small scale qualitative studies….” In responding to these comments, we strive to separate the tool kit itself from the overall method. We remark first on the current state of use of the software tools. Then we offer some further thoughts (not mentioned in WJP originally) about what else we learned in the investigation. We conclude with some general comments about paths to the future.

Instability, investment, disasters, and demography: natural disasters and fertility in Italy (1820–1962) and Japan (1671–1965)

This article examines whether natural disasters affect fertility—a topic little explored but of policy importance given relevance to policies regarding disaster insurance, foreign aid, and the environment. The identification strategy uses historic regional data to exploit natural variation within each of two countries: one European country—Italy (1820–1962), and one Asian country—Japan (1671–1965). The choice of study settings allows consideration of Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory that preindustrial differences in income and population between Asia and Europe resulted from the fertility response to different environmental risk profiles. According to the results, short-run instability, particularly that arising from the natural environment, appears to be associated with a decrease in fertility—thereby suggesting that environmental shocks and economic volatility are associated with a decrease in investment in the population size of future generations. The results also show that, contrary to Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory, differences in fertility between Italy and Japan cannot be explained away by disaster proneness alone. Research on the effects of natural disasters may enable social scientists and environmentalists alike to better predict the potential effects of the increase in natural disasters that may result from global climate change.

Births and Fertility in Interwar Italy: Trends, Images, Policies and Perception

Since the 1980s, the decline of fertility in Italy has encouraged a debate on measures that support fertility. This debate has promoted scholars' interest in studying pronatalist policies that the Italian fascist regime implemented during interwar time. This paper reviews literature on Italian fascist pronatalism. It is organised in four parts. First, we examine statistics on Italian fertility and population projections produced in the 1920s and 1930s. Second, we describe the ways in which the main Italian demographers who lived during those two decades interpreted fertility decline and the policies that encouraged fertility. We analyse how Italian fascism interpreted low fertility and the objectives it expected to achieve through the implementation of pronatalist policies. Third, we provide an account of the pronatalist policies which were carried out, as well as of the propaganda accompanying these policies. Finally, we look at the attitudes of Italian women who lived during fascist time towards family formation. We discuss how Italian women did not conform to the fascist model of prolific mothers.

Gender Equity and Fertility in Italy and Spain

AbstractGender equity and its effects on fertility vary across socio-political contexts, particularly when comparing less with more developed economies. But do subtle differences in equity within more similar contexts matter as well? Here we compare Italy and Spain, two countries with low fertility levels and institutional reliance on kinship and family, but with employment equity among women during the 1990s slightly greater in Italy than Spain. The European Community Household Panel is used to explore the effect of this difference in gender equity on the likelihood of married couples having a second birth during this time period. Women's hours of employment reduce the birth likelihood in both countries, but non-maternal sources of care offset this effect to different degrees. In Spain, private childcare significantly increases birth likelihood, whereas in Italy, father's greater childcare share increases the likelihood, particularly among employed women. These results suggest that increases in women's employment equity increase not only the degree of equity within the home, but also the beneficial effects of equity on fertility. These equity effects help to offset the negative relationship historically found between female employment and fertility.

Immigration, Reproduction and Identity: Research Perspectives on Foreigner's Fertility in Italy

Immigration, Reproduction and Identity: Research Perspectives on Foreigner's Fertility in Italy