Decline Of Fertility In Europe Research Articles

Fertility and Modernity

AbstractWe investigate the determinants of the fertility decline in Europe from 1830 to 1970 using a newly constructed data set of linguistic distances between European regions. The decline resulted from the gradual diffusion of new fertility behaviour from French-speaking regions to the rest of Europe. Societies with higher education, lower infant mortality, higher urbanisation and higher population density had lower levels of fertility during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. However, the fertility decline took place earlier in communities that were culturally closer to the French, while the fertility transition spread only later to societies that were more distant from the frontier. This is consistent with a process of social influence, whereby societies that were culturally closer to the French faced lower barriers to learning new information and adopting novel attitudes regarding fertility control.

Gender and fertility within the free churches in the Sundsvall region, Sweden, 1860–1921

The role of secularization in the European fertility decline has been of interest to demographers, who often explore the relationship on a macro-level or by identifying religious affiliation by proxy. However, the relationship has not been thoroughly studied on an individual level utilizing indicators of personal religious conviction and affiliation. The aim of the present article is to examine reproductive practices by religious affiliation in order to understand the impact of secularization on fertility decline. This is accomplished using event history analysis of longitudinal parish register data from Sundsvall (1860–1921) where religious affiliation is identified on a family level. Reproductive practices are analysed using cohort TFR, descriptive statistics and Cox proportional hazard regressions. Free-church affiliates had, overall, a higher probability of having another child than did affiliates to the state church. However, these differences decreased over time, and as fertility dropped throughout society free-church affiliates showed the strongest significant reduction in probability of another birth. This indicates that over time, within the free churches, ideas about respectability and restraint came to mean that birth control, in the form of abstinence within marriage, became an important practice in the formation of gendered religious identities - leading to a relatively early decrease in fertility.

The Delayed Fertility Transition in North-East Italy

The transitional decline of fertility in Italy has never been studied using micro-data, with the exception of small areas. For the first time, we use individual retrospective fertility data collected for all the ever married women living in 20 % of households subjected to census in 1971 in the Veneto region (North-East Italy), a ‘late-comer’ area in the context of Western European fertility decline (TFR = 5.0 in 1871 and 1921, 2.5 in 1951 and 1971). In order to consider broad explanations of fertility decline, we combine individual retrospective data with other information available at two territorial levels (58 districts and 582 municipalities), using a three-level clustered regression model (district, municipality, woman). The main results are: (1) even if the (few) women with 8 + years of schooling born in the last decades of the nineteenth century already had a TFR around two, this value is not seen among women with low levels of education until those born 50 years later; (2) the link between fertility and secularization strengthens cohort after cohort, whereas the connections between fertility and industrialization and fertility and urbanization weaken; (3) throughout the period, the statistical inverse relationship between education and fertility is strong, both at the territorial and individual level.

Louise Tilly in Intergenerational Perspective

Louise Tilly is noteworthy as an historian, a mentor, and a distiller of feminist thought. Her work covers a variety of fields. In the field of labor history she produced an important study of political contention in Italy, Politics and Class in Milan, 1881–1901, and, along with Charles and Richard Tilly, a widely influential study of collective action, The Rebellious Century (Tilly 1994; Tilly et al. 1975). Her most influential work is in the arena of women's and family history, most notably Women, Work, and Family, a product of her collaboration with Joan Scott (Tilly and Scott 1978). She was also a member of the Panel on Women's Work and Technology of the National Research Council, which produced a signal study of the evolution of women's white collar work and its prospects, Computer Chips and Paper Clips: Technology and Women's Employment, and she possessed a keen interest in the intersection between demographic and family history as shown in her coedited collection on European fertility decline (Gillis et al. 1992; National Research Council 1986). Before illness forced her to cease work, she was moving into global history where her most important contribution was her presidential address to the American Historical Association (AHA) that outlined a distinctive and original approach to world history (Tilly 1994).

Pensions and Fertility: Back to the Roots -- The Introduction of Bismarck's Pension Scheme and the European Fertility Decline

Fertility has long been declining in industrialised countries and the existence of public pension systems is considered as one of the causes. This paper provides detailed evidence based on historical data on the mechanism by which a public pension system depresses fertility. Our theoretical framework highlights that the effect of a public pension system on fertility works via the impact of contributions in such a system on disposable income as well as via the impact on future disposable income that is related to the internal rate of return of the pension system. Drawing on a unique historical data set which allows us to measure these variables at a jurisdictional level for a time when comprehensive social security was introduced, we estimate the effects predicted by the model. We find that beyond the traditional determinants of the first demographic transition, a lower internal rate of return of the pension system is associated with a higher birth rate. This result is robust to including the traditional determinants of the first demographic transition as controls as well as to other policy changes at the time. JEL Classification: C21, H31, H53, H55, J13, J18, J26, N33

Pensions and Fertility: Back to the Roots - The Introduction of Bismarck's Pension Scheme and the European Fertility Decline

Fertility has long been declining in industrialised countries and the existence of public pension systems is considered as one of the causes. This paper provides detailed evidence based on historical data on the mechanism by which a public pension system depresses fertility. Our theoretical framework highlights that the effect of a public pension system on fertility works via the impact of contributions in such a system on disposable income as well as via the impact on future disposable income that is related to the internal rate of return of the pension system. Drawing on a unique historical data set which allows us to measure these variables at a jurisdictional level for a time when comprehensive social security was introduced, we estimate the effects predicted by the model. We find that beyond the traditional determinants of the first demographic transition, a lower internal rate of return of the pension system is associated with a higher birth rate. This result is robust to including the traditional determinants of the first demographic transition as controls as well as to other policy changes at the time.

Pensions and Fertility: Back to the Roots - The Introduction of Bismarck's Pension Scheme and the European Fertility Decline

Pensions and Fertility: Back to the Roots - The Introduction of Bismarck's Pension Scheme and the European Fertility Decline

Marital Fertility Decline in the Netherlands: Child Mortality, Real Wages, and Unemployment, 1860–1939

Previous studies of the fertility decline in Europe are often limited to an earlier stage of the marital fertility decline, when the decline tended to be slower and before the large increase in earnings in the 1920s. Starting in 1860 (before the onset of the decline), this study follows marital fertility trends until 1939, when fertility reached lower levels than ever before. Using data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN), this study shows that mortality decline, a rise in real income, and unemployment account for the decline in the Netherlands. This finding suggests that marital fertility decline was an adjustment to social and economic change, leaving little room for attitudinal change that is independent of social and economic change.

Social class and the fertility transition: a critical comment on the statistical results reported in Simon Szreter's Fertility, class and gender in Britain, 1860–19401

Simon Szreter's book Fertility, class and gender in Britain, 1860–1940 argues that social and economic class fails to explain the cross‐sectional differences in marital fertility as reported in the 1911 census of England and Wales. Szreter's conclusion made the book immediately influential, and it remains so. This finding matters a great deal for debates about the causes of the European fertility decline of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. For decades scholars have argued whether the main forces at work were ideational or social and economic. This note reports a simple graphical and statistical re‐analysis of Szreter's own data. We show that social class does explain cross‐sectional differences in English marital fertility in 1911.

The practice of birth control and historical fertility change: Introduction

This introduction discusses the contributions in the special issue. The articles present results concerning the practice of birth control, mainly at the family level. They represent different analytical approaches where both interviews, letters, surveys and micro-level data have been used. The European fertility decline has made a fundamental change to the societies in the 20th and 21st centuries. Birth control spreads rapidly. Research in this field requires both qualitative and quantitative studies, where both approaches contribute to different perspectives on the transition. The articles in the issue discuss several themes in relation to birth control, of which three are developed in the introduction. These are gender and fertility, gender and health and finally how to control fertility. The presented results demonstrate the importance of including gender in the analyses of the fertility decline. A gender perspective makes it natural to consider historical persons as agents. It is also necessary to acknowledge that we should not treat the married couple as a single unit. They may have conflicting interests, something that several of the articles illustrate. One aspect we would like to emphasize is how health problems can influence the will to have more children and this affects birth control. This is a theme that in different forms is taken up by several of the authors. Finally, families practiced birth control with several different methods that also changed throughout the married years, thus demonstrating a flexibility that is often overlooked in conventional methods for the analysis of fertility.

Social Class and the Fertility Transition: A Critical Comment on the Statistical Results Reported in Simon Szreter’s 'Fertility, Class and Gender in Britain, 1860-1940'

Simon Szreter’s book Fertility, Class, and Gender in Britain, 1860-1940 argues that social and economic class fails to explain the cross-sectional differences in marital fertility as reported in the 1911 census of England and Wales. Szreter’s conclusion made the book immediately influential, and it remains so. This finding matters a great deal for debates about the causes of the European fertility decline of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. For decades scholars have argued whether the main forces at work were ideational or social and economic. This note reports a simple re-analysis of Szreter’s own data, which suggests that social class does explain cross-sectional differences in English marital fertility in 1911.

Preference Theory and Low Fertility: A Comparative Perspective

The discussion on the causes of the most recent fertility decline in Europe, and in particular on the emergence of lowest-low fertility, emphasizes the relevance of cultural factors in addition to economic ones. As part of such a cultural framework, the heterogeneity of preferences concerning the “career vs. family” dichotomy has been systematized in the “Preference Theory” approach developed by Catherine Hakim. This heterogeneity in preferences, however, has so far been underinvestigated in a comparative framework. This paper makes use of comparative data from the 2004/2005 Round of the European Social Survey to test the links between individual-level preferences and both fertility outcomes and fertility intentions, in a variety of societal settings. Results confirm an association between work–family lifestyle preferences and realized fertility in a variety of European countries, while they do not show a relationship between lifestyle preferences and fertility intentions. Results further support the existence of heterogeneous patterns of association between lifestyle preferences and fertility choices among welfare regimes.

Regions and time in the European fertility transition: problems in the Princeton Project’s statistical methodology1

Much empirical social‐science research, including work in economic and demographic history, has relied on the analysis of published information on administrative districts. One famous example of this type of research, the Princeton Project on the Decline of Fertility in Europe (EFP), was carried out at Princeton University’s Office of Population Research in the 1960s and 1970s. This project aimed to characterize the decline of fertility that took place in Europe during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The project’s summary statements argued that social and economic forces played little role in bringing about the fertility transition. A central feature of the EFP argument is a series of statistical exercises which purport to show that changes in economic and social conditions exerted little influence on fertility. Two recent articles on Germany for this period have used similar data and methods to draw different conclusions. We show that the difference reflects problems in the Princeton project’s statistical methods. Those problems affect, potentially, virtually all quantitative research of this type. Our findings suggest cautious re‐thinking of conclusions based on this type of evidence, starting with the EFP.

When Does Religion Influence Fertility?

Religious affiliation as a determinant of demographic behavior is receiving renewed attention in demography. Interest in the role of cultural factors in affecting fertility and a specific concern with the role of Islam in many developing countries have helped re‐invigorate research on the role of religion. This article reviews theoretical and empirical work on that relationship, with special attention to a number of cases in which religion has been identified as an important determinant of fertility patterns. The article concludes that religion plays an influential role when three conditions are satisfied: first, the religion articulates behavioral norms with a bearing on fertility behavior; second, the religion holds the means to communicate these values and promote compliance; and, third, religion forms a central component of the social identity of its followers.

Another Look at Coale’s Indices of Fertility, If and Ig

Ansley Coale's indices of fertility are well-established measures in historical demography. Developed in the 1960s, they formed the basic analytical device for the European Fertility Project (EFP), which chartered the decline of fertility inEurope (Coale and Watkins 1986), and which has since spawned efforts to measure fertility control in more refined and rigorous ways (David et al. 1988; David and Mroz 1989a, 1989b; David and Sanderson 1988, 1990; Haines 1989; Okun 1994a, 1994b; Bean et al. 1991; Anderson and Silver 1992).

Transformation of the French Demographic Landscape, 1806-1906

France was among the first countries to experience so-called 'demographic transition', when mortality and fertility declined and daily living conditions were deeply transformed. But the exact position traditionally assigned to France in the European fertility decline will have to be revised in the light of this study, which introduces new approaches and methods to the study of historical demography based on data for the eighty-nine departments of France during the nineteenth-century. Professor Bonneuil reconstitutes the patterns of internal migration, which, intertwined with the extension of urbanization and education, played an important role in the transition. The French demographic landscape does, indeed, reveal geographical contrasts in evolution. The question is whether people changed their habits by adapting to a changing economic, sanitary, and social environment, or, alternatively, whether behaviour was influenced primarily by changes in the perception of the role of offspring. Historical data from France offer an exceptional analytical opportunity. The results of this study transcend geographical and historical borders and challenge our assumptions about the demographic response to changing environment.

Incorporating Space into Social Histories: How Spatial Processes Operate and How We Observe Them

Social historians study social, political, demographic and economic phenomena which take place in geographical space, yet “space” rarely enters historical discourse explicitly as an analytic construct. Given the recent interest among social historians in “localizing” social processes, it is unfortunate that almost all of our efforts have gone toward recognizing the significance of time, to the relative neglect of space. For example, social historians typically assume that events occurring at a given point in time are affected by earlier events. In contrast, it is less widely recognized that events occurring in one location are also affected by similar events in other areas, especially those nearby. In the rare instances in which geographical space has been central, such as in Susan Watkins' treatment of western European fertility decline during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, or in the evidence of the diffusion of democracy in post-war Europe that is emerging from the “Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of Democracy” project at the University of Colorado — Boulder, the payoff has been substantial. Such innovative approaches to historical theorizing give reason to believe that thinking of events in the past as parts of a process moving through time and across space will become more commonplace. If so, then social historians will need an effective and accessible method to account for the spatial distributions of their study phenomena.

Festival of the poor: fertility decline & the ideology of class in Sicily, 1860-1980

The historical decline of fertility in Europe has occupied a central place in social history and demography over the past quarter-century. Most scholars credit Europeans with modulating behavior, through either abstinence or the practice of coitus interruptus, as a rational choice made in the interest of personal economic comfort; yet peasant and working classes have typically lagged behind in birth control and have given rise to the adage that sexual embrace is the festival of the poor. Scholarly analyses of lag often reinforce this stigmatizing view.Now this subject is given a fresh look through a case study in Sicily, one of the last outposts of Western Europe's demographic transition. By examining population changes in a single community between 1860 and 1980, the authors offer an extended review and critique of existing models of fertility decline in Europe, proposing a new interpretation that emphasizes historical context and class relations. They show how the spread of capitalism in Sicily induced an unprecedented rate of population growth, with boom-and-bust cycles creating the class experiences in which reputational networks came to redefine family life; how Sicilians began to control their fertility in response to class-mediated ideas about gender relations and respectable family size; and how the town's gentry, artisan, and peasant classes adopted family planning methods at different times in response to different pressures.Jane and Peter Schneider's anthropologically oriented political-economy perspective challenges the position of Western Europe as a model for fertility decline on which every other case should converge, looking instead at the diversity of cultural ideals and practices--such as those found in Sicily--that influence the spread and form of birth control. Combining anthropological, oral historical, and archival methods in new and insightful ways, the authors' synthesis of a particular case study with a broad historical and theoretical discussion will play a major role in the ongoing debates over the history of European fertility decline and point the way toward integrating the analysis of demographic upheaval with the study of class formation and ideology.

The European Experience of Declining Fertility, 1850-1970: The Quiet Revolution.

Part 1 The debate about European fertility decline: theories of fertility decline - a non-specialist's guide to the current debate, George Alter. Part 2 Family and gender: gender and fertility decline among the British middle classes, John Gillis mothers and the state in Britain, 1904-1914, Ellen Ross men's marital rights and women's wifely duties - changing conjugal relations in the fertility decline, Wally Secombe the sexual politics of reproduction, Angus McLaren the contours of childhood - demography, strategy and mythology of childhood in French and German lower class autobiographies, Mary Jo Maynes. Part 3 Community and class: population, change, labour markets and working class militancy - the regions around Birmingham and St Etienne, 1840-1880, Michael Hanagan going forward in reverse gear - culture, economy and political economy in the demographic transition of a Sicilian rural town, Jane Schneider and Peter Schneider the history of migration and fertility decline - the view from the road, Leslie Page Moch occupation and social class during fertility decline - historical perspectives, Michael Haines exploring a case of late French fertility decline - two contrasted Breton examples, Martine Segalen. Part 4 State and politics: constructing families, shaping women's lives - the making of Italian families between market economy and state interventions, Chiare Saraceno demographic nationalism in Western Europe, 1870-1960, Susan Cotts Watkins war, family and fertility in 20th century Europe, Jay Winter safety in numbers - social welfare legislation and fertility decline in Western Europe, Lynn Lees. Part 5 Postscript: movements in time - an historian's context of declining fertility, David Levine.

What Do We Know About the Timing of Fertility Transitions in Europe?

The Princeton project on the decline of fertility in Europe (the European Fertility Project) suggested that this historical fertility transition occurred virtually simultaneously in a wide variety of economic and social environments. This finding has been cited widely as evidence for an innovation/diffusion view of fertility transitions. We demonstrate that the demographic methods used to date the fertility transition in Europe--primarily Ig, and (to a lesser extent) the Coale-Trussell M&m indices--may fail to detect the initial stages of a fertility transition and therefore cannot be used as the basis for strong statements about the timing of transitions. We review these measurement problems and their implications for the current understanding of the European fertility transition.