Fermi Paradox Research Articles

Phenomenal consciousness is alien to us: SETI and the fermi paradox seen through the prism of illusionism and attention schema theory

Illusionism is an eliminativist position about qualia stating that phenomenal consciousness is nothing more than an introspective illusion. The attention schema theory (AST) relates this philosophical stance to a large body of experimental data and states that phenomenal consciousness arises from an internal model of attention control. In this paper, I intend to show that AST and illusionism have significant implications both in the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence and in the explanation of Fermi paradox.Firstly, on the basis of findings concerning the evolutionary history of phenomenal consciousness on Earth, I argue that extraterrestrial biological life is likely to experience phenomenality. In the second part, I set AST in the context of a post-biological universe, where artificial intelligence (AI) is the dominant form of intelligence. I argue that phenomenal consciousness is probably present in these entities, and that they could even be super-conscious. Finally, I show that because phenomenality grounds value, illusionism has profound revisionary consequences in the field of ethics. This reconsideration of the justifiability of our values paves the way to AI misalignment and may be the source of neocatastrophic scenarios that explain to Fermi paradox.

The anesthetic implications of lumbar tattoos.

Lumbar and sacral tattoos are popular amongst all ages. Some physicians are concerned that passing a needle through a pigmented area during lumbar puncture may deposit toxic material into the central nervous system, resulting in late complications. In this review, we highlight the tattooing process with an emphasis on anatomy and physiology of the skin, and the pathophysiology and toxicology of tattoos. We conclude that there is perhaps no evidence yet to suggest that pigment can be transported into the central nervous system from a well healed tattoo. There is insufficient evidence to endorse placement of a needle through a tattoo into the neuraxis before it is completely healed. The Fermi paradox 'absence of evidence is not evidence of absence of effect' still holds in light of emerging evidence that tattoos may be linked to lymphoma.

Why the Fermi paradox may not be well explained by Wong and Bartlett's theory of civilization collapse. A Comment on: 'Asymptotic burnout and homeostatic awakening: a possible solution to the Fermi paradox?' (2022) by Wong and Bartlett.

Wong and Bartlett explain the Fermi paradox by arguing that neither human nor extra-terrestrial civilizations can escape the time window singularity which, they claim, results from the way in which social characteristics of civilizations follow super-linear growth curves of cities. We question if data at the city level necessarily can lead to conclusions at the civilization level. More specifically, we suggest ways in which learnings from research, foresight, diversity and effective future government might act outside of their model to regulate super-linear growth curves of civilizations, and thus substantively increase the likelihood of civilizations progressing towards higher levels of the Kardashev scale. Moreover, we believe their claimed history of the collapse of terrestrial societies used to evidence their model is difficult to justify. Overall, we cast reasonable doubt on the ability of their proposed model to satisfactorily explain the Fermi paradox.

Should We Pass the Great Filter?

Abstract This paper provides a Christian philosophical and theological response to the moral imperative of human advancement through multiplanetarism as emerging from the Great Filter theory. First, it explains the Fermi paradox that underlies the Great Filter theory. Next, it explores this theory itself and its motivational power in driving advancement toward multiplanetarism. In particular, we explore two motives behind the multiplanetary efforts that are (in part) guided by the Great Filter theory, analyzing the relevant statements of SpaceX founder and chief engineer Elon Musk. Finally, we assess these motivations (and the accompanying normative assumptions) behind space exploration and multiplanetarism from the perspective of Reformational philosophy, using Herman Dooyeweerd’s theory of ground motives as a lens. Thus, the paper’s leading research question is this: How can we assess the current attempts at securing a multiplanetary existence for humankind in the light of Dooyeweerd’s theory of ground motives?

The Ethics of Astrobiology and the Cosmic Bet Argument

Stephen Weinberg posited in 1977 that as the universe becomes more comprehensible, it appears more meaningless owing to a strict division between facts and values. He seemingly overlooked the consideration of the purposes and values of intelligent life in examining its ability to influence the universe's development. The scientific revolution, initiated by Copernicus's heliocentric hypothesis and furthered by Darwin's theory, shifted humanity's perceived place in the cosmos, removing the sacred. However, developments in astrobiology and discoveries related to the Fermi Paradox and the Rare Earth Hypothesis are hinting at humanity's significant role in the universe, suggesting we might be the only intelligent species. This paper argues that advancing scientific knowledge reinforces the hypothesis of human exclusivity and importance in the cosmos, making the potential sixth mass extinction cosmically significant and underscoring the imperative of human persistence in the cosmos.

The Public Understanding of Analytical Psychology.

In 1960, Jung lamented psychology's limited impact on global fate. Although Fordham tried to reassure him that Jungians were promoting his work, Jung was looking from the other end of the telescope, seeing the need to rescue humanity from its one-sidedness that would ultimately lead to nuclear conflict. Astronomical evidence, such as the Fermi paradox, echoes Jung's concerns about likely self-destruction. Rather than promoting Jungian ideas to interested groups, the imperative lies in identifying crucial messages for global survival and engaging the public in them. Science provides some useful lessons because its concerted efforts over centuries led to the gradual integration of scientific thinking into the public psyche. These lessons suggest that, to cross the border from the Jungian to wider public domain, compromises are necessary, such as simplifying messages and making engagement enchanting and practical. Analytical psychology's task goes beyond one individual, group, or even generation, and a debate is needed to begin to form a consensus on the way ahead. Some initial suggestions are made for adopting terminology the public can relate to, focusing on the transcendent function as the main vehicle to overcome one-sidedness and conflict, and using figures like Nelson Mandela to demonstrate practical application.

Potential incompatibility of inherited behavior patterns with civilization: Implications for Fermi paradox.

All intelligent organisms presumably originally have a number of inherited behavior patterns (IBPs) that are not fine-tuned for conditions prevailing in civilized communities. Indeed, some IBPs may be highly incompatible with such conditions and have high potential to induce self-destruction. These patterns may include responses of social organisms seeking power over conspecifics in relation to harvesting and consuming energy. It is possible that all emerging civilizations could face problems associated with incompatible IBPs, which may partially explain why civilizations are apparently rare (since we have not detected any others in our galaxy).

Detectability of Solar Panels as a Technosignature

In this work, we assess the potential detectability of solar panels made of silicon on an Earth-like exoplanet as a potential technosignature. Silicon-based photovoltaic cells have high reflectance in the ultraviolet-to-visible (UV-VIS) and in the near-infrared, within the wavelength range of a space-based flagship mission concept like the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). Assuming that only solar energy is used to provide the 2022 human energy needs with a land cover of ∼2.4%, and projecting the future energy demand assuming various growth-rate scenarios, we assess the detectability with an 8 m HWO-like telescope. Assuming the most favorable viewing orientation, and focusing on the strong absorption edge in the UV-VIS (0.34–0.52 μm), we find that several hundreds of hours of observation time are needed to reach a signal-to-noise ratio of 5 for an Earth-like planet around a Sun-like star at 10 pc, even with a solar panel coverage of ∼23% land coverage of a future Earth. We discuss the necessity of concepts like Kardeshev Type I/II civilizations and Dyson spheres, which would aim to harness vast amounts of energy. Even with much larger populations than today, the total energy use of human civilization would be orders of magnitude below the threshold for causing direct thermal heating or reaching the scale of a Kardashev Type I civilization. Any extraterrestrial civilization that likewise achieves sustainable population levels may also find a limit on its need to expand, which suggests that a galaxy-spanning civilization as imagined in the Fermi paradox may not exist.

A Step Closer to Solving the Fermi Paradox

Finding evidence of complex life elsewhere in the Milky Way galaxy hinges on locating rocky planets with plate tectonics and a mixture of landmasses and oceans, new research suggests.

Optimal strategies for the exploration of near-by stars

In the past decade, the discovery of exoplanets has sparked new interests in the idea of interstellar travel and exploration. Despite various proposals for probe concepts and relevant technologies, there is a lack of extensive literature on viable exploration strategies for journeys beyond a single star system. Such exploration strategies might not only have implications on technology development strategies for achieving interstellar exploration but could also enrich existing models for galactic exploration feeding into solutions of the Fermi Paradox. This article presents optimal strategies for the exploration of a large number of near-by stars, using a dedicated, novel methodology, which sets it apart from existing literature: For the first time, the mission design problem of interstellar exploration is redefined as a bi-objective multi-vehicle open routing problem with profits. It is tackled by an adapted hybrid multi-objective genetic algorithm, which is further improved and modified according to the problem characteristics (e.g. large search space). The overall mission model assumes probes traveling on straight trajectories, utilizing flybys, and maintaining an average velocity of 10% of the speed of light. Surpassing prior research that typically relies on statistical models or restricted star data, the star models are founded on the second Gaia data release (Gaia DR2), which represents the most extensive star catalogue to the date of this study and is employed for the first time in the context of interstellar exploration. The resulting star model contains a maximum of 10,000 stars within a spherical region around Sol, covering a distance of 110 light years.It is found, that the number of explored stars J1 scales with mission duration J2 and probe number m according to J1∼J2m0.66, which provides an initial guidance for future interstellar mission design. Furthermore, the routes and selection of stars vary depending on the number of probes used: When conducting missions with a large number of probes, stars in close proximity to the Solar System are given more focus. On the other hand, missions with a small number of probes include more distant stars to facilitate shorter transfers along the route. Based on these findings, the following recommendations for interstellar exploration strategies can be drawn: When energy resources such as fuel reserves are scarce and the exploration mission is not limited to nearby stars, low probe numbers are more efficient. In contrast, high probe numbers enable faster exploration of nearby stars but involve less resource-efficient transfers, making them a suitable option for small, remotely propelled probe concepts. To address crowding effects in high probe number missions, swarm-based probe concepts are recommended based on the scaling law characteristics derived.

The importance of continents, oceans and plate tectonics for the evolution of complex life: implications for finding extraterrestrial civilizations

Within the uncertainties of involved astronomical and biological parameters, the Drake Equation typically predicts that there should be many exoplanets in our galaxy hosting active, communicative civilizations (ACCs). These optimistic calculations are however not supported by evidence, which is often referred to as the Fermi Paradox. Here, we elaborate on this long-standing enigma by showing the importance of planetary tectonic style for biological evolution. We summarize growing evidence that a prolonged transition from Mesoproterozoic active single lid tectonics (1.6 to 1.0 Ga) to modern plate tectonics occurred in the Neoproterozoic Era (1.0 to 0.541 Ga), which dramatically accelerated emergence and evolution of complex species. We further suggest that both continents and oceans are required for ACCs because early evolution of simple life must happen in water but late evolution of advanced life capable of creating technology must happen on land. We resolve the Fermi Paradox (1) by adding two additional terms to the Drake Equation: foc (the fraction of habitable exoplanets with significant continents and oceans) and fpt (the fraction of habitable exoplanets with significant continents and oceans that have had plate tectonics operating for at least 0.5 Ga); and (2) by demonstrating that the product of foc and fpt is very small (< 0.00003–0.002). We propose that the lack of evidence for ACCs reflects the scarcity of long-lived plate tectonics and/or continents and oceans on exoplanets with primitive life.

The social science perspective on the Fermi paradox

Abstract The Fermi paradox points to the apparent contradiction between the idea that the emergence of life and civilization on Earth is an objective process following the general rules of Nature and that there are no visible signs of other civilizations beyond Earth. The Fermi paradox is widely discussed in astronomical, biological and other natural sciences but almost totally ignored by social sciences, even though more than half of known explanations deal with intentions and behaviours of extraterrestrial civilizations (ETCs) or social aspects of the evolution of technological civilizations. The article analyses the problem and possible solutions to the Fermi paradox from the perspective of social sciences. In this article I argue that the Fermi paradox is primarily a social science problem, and the most plausible solutions have to contain some form of social science explanations. Three types of explanations are discussed, namely, those related to ETCs’ intentions, capacities and the consequences of their decisions and activities. I argue that attempts to explain the paradox by referring to specific goals and motives of ETCs are the least plausible. Arguments related to the capacities and consequences are more solid but do not convincingly solve the paradox. I conclude that the Fermi paradox is an important problem for social sciences whether ETCs exist or not, and it should attract greater attention from social scientists.

Immune evasion by dormant disseminated cancer cells: A Fermi paradox?

Rare disseminated tumor cells (DTCs) can persist after treatment in patients for years, and the immune system does not eliminate them. Goddard etal. propose that immune evasion by rare dormant DTCs is due to an improbability of contact imposed by large distances separating effector Tcells and DTCs.

A non-anthropocentric solution to the Fermi paradox

Abstract A few dozens of solutions to the Fermi paradox have been proposed in the past. The most relevant ones will be concisely discussed in this paper. They will be classified as follows: exceptionality solutions, annihilation solutions and communication barrier solutions. The argument will be advanced that all existing resolutions to the Fermi paradox are in their essence anthropocentric. The epistemological groundwork of anthropocentrism will be discussed. Conversely, in this paper, a non-anthropocentric solution to the Fermi paradox will be proposed: the ‘lasting human epistemological limitations solution’. This resolution to the Fermi paradox acknowledges that human epistemological capacities are limited to the degree that not only extraterrestrial forms of life may be unobservable to the human perceptive apparatus, but that universes may exist around humans with forms of life, inorganic matter or entities of any other type that humans are incapable of perceiving. In light of the revolutionary developments in theoretical physics, it is likely that in the future these developments will be reflected in increasingly non-anthropocentric solutions to the Fermi paradox.

The Fermi paradox and the Drake equation

The Fermi paradox and the Drake equation seem to be incompatible. Here we shall show that is not so, and the paradox actually justifies the assumptions made in formulating this equation.

A Re-appraisal of the Challenges Associated with Detecting Alien Signals and Technosigniatures

The Rare Earth Hypothesis contends that Earth’s unusual formation and distinct evolutionary pathways led to the unlikely emergence of Homo sapiens. This contention is developed further by combining the universal principles of the Newtonian n-body problem and Darwinism to argue that there is also an inherent randomness in the sequence, timing, duration and nature of evolutionary outcomes on alien worlds. This has two important implications. Firstly, where alien life might emerge, evolutionary pathways must differ considerably to those on Earth. Within this, intelligence is not the goal of evolution nor is it necessarily the best adaptation for a given niche; there is no systematic, inexorable progression towards higher intelligence and technology. Secondly, the chances of an advanced alien civilisation emerging from a separate, random evolutionary pathway with matching technology, and proximate signalling in deep time are vanishingly small. This re appraisal of the challenges associated with detecting alien signals has the advantage of using two key universal principles without relying explicitly on anthropocentric assumptions. Keywords: Fermi Paradox, Rare Earth Hypothesis, Alien Signals, SETI, Exoplanets

Pancosmorio (world limit) theory of the sustainability of human migration and settlement in space

It seems to be an accepted assumption that human migration into space is inevitable. However, almost 60 years of scientific studies of the effects of space on Earth life suggest this is not a given. Life on Earth evolved in the context of conditions that are unique to Earth and are not duplicated anywhere else in our solar system. The science indicates that life-sustaining conditions on Earth could be the very things that inhibit our ability to live off-Earth. This paper combines 100 years of scientific development of a theory of ecological thermodynamics with classical mechanics theory and analytical models of self-restoring heat engines to explain how the Sun and Earth have evolved into islands of order in the entropy of space. An explanation is provided regarding how naturally occurring conservative force fields engage a diversity of natural resources in semi-reversible cycles that build a high-exergy ecosphere. The science infers that the ability to establish a human settlement in space without Earth-like self-restoring order, capacity, and organization will result in settlement sustainment challenges. Historical evidence of Earth settlements with disrupted ecosystems point to the following possibilities. Supply chains would disappear, market resources would be depleted, advancement in human pursuits would be disrupted, social and governance systems would falter or collapse, human population numbers would decline, genetic diversity in the human genome would be lost, average human individual biomass would decrease, and human knowledge and understanding would be forgotten. What does it mean to have a location in space outside of Earth be “like Earth?” The results of research are presented as a pancosmorio theory ofhuman sustainability that is developed using the scientific philosophy methodology of abductive reasoning. Four analytical models of space ecosphere sustainability and five hypotheses with proposed tests for falsifiability are provided, including a theorem that suggests a limit to human expansion into space. A new quantitative method of human sustainability is developed from theories of network ecology, providing orthogonal properties of an ecosystem network stability function based upon an ecosystem network production function. Conclusions are made regarding the potential for sustainable development in space using balanced sustainability. Insights are provided regarding human endeavors on the Moon and Mars, as well as the Fermi paradox.

Sociological approach to the Fermi paradox

Since 1950, scientists have been discussing the Fermi paradox – the lack of signs of life and reason of other civilizations. This is surprising, since the latter can be millions, or maybe billions older than the earth and therefore must have the appropriate technological capabilities. The article addresses this problem from the point of view of mathematical modeling and the theory of self-organization. The dynamics of other worlds are investigated, and it is shown that their existence is determined by social instability. This instability relates to the contradiction between &amp;quot;cosmic people,&amp;quot; insisting on the expansion of their civilization and &amp;quot;molecular,&amp;quot; who believe that the main thing is to preserve what has been achieved. The results obtained make us take a fresh look at the management of the risks of the development of terrestrial civilization and attempts to contact other worlds.

The Fermi Paradox Revisited: Technosignatures and the Contact Era

A new solution to the Fermi Paradox is presented: probes or visits from putative alien civilizations have a very low probability until a civilization reaches a certain age (called the “Contact Era”) after the onset of radio communications. If biotic planets are common, putative advanced civilizations may send probes not to any planet showing biosignatures, but rather to planets with technosignatures, such as radio broadcasts. The contact probability is defined as the chance to find a nearby civilization located close enough so that it could have detected the earliest radio emissions (the “radiosphere”) and sent a probe that would reach the solar system at present. It is found that the current contact probability for Earth is very low unless civilizations are extremely abundant. Since the radiosphere expands with time, so does the contact probability. The Contact Era is defined as the time (since the onset of radio transmissions) at which the contact probability becomes of order unity. At that time alien probes (or messages) become more likely. Unless civilizations are highly abundant, the Contact Era is shown to be of the order of a few hundred to a few thousand years and may be applied not only to physical probes but also to transmissions (i.e., search for extraterrestrial intelligence). Consequently, it is shown that civilizations are unlikely to be able to intercommunicate unless their communicative lifetime is at least a few thousand years.

Galactic Settlement of Low-mass Stars as a Resolution to the Fermi Paradox

An expanding civilization could spread rapidly through the Galaxy, so the absence of extraterrestrial settlement in the solar system implies that such expansionist civilizations do not exist. This argument, often referred to as the Fermi paradox, typically assumes that expansion would proceed uniformly through the Galaxy, but not all stellar types may be equally useful for a long-lived civilization. We suggest that low-mass stars, and K-dwarf stars in particular, would be ideal migration locations for civilizations that originate in a G-dwarf system. We use a modified form of the Drake equation to show that expansion across all low-mass stars could be accomplished in 2 Gyr, which includes waiting time between expansion waves to allow for a close approach to a suitable destination star. This would require interstellar travel capabilities of no more than ∼0.3 lt-yr to settle all M-dwarfs and ∼2 lt-yr to settle all K-dwarfs. Even more rapid expansion could occur within 2 Myr, with travel requirements of ∼10 lt-yr to settle all M-dwarfs and ∼50 lt-yr to settle all K-dwarfs. The search for technosignatures in exoplanetary systems can help to place constraints on the presence of such a “low-mass Galactic Club” in the Galaxy today.