Federal Spending Research Articles

United States federal indebtedness and fiscal policy trade‐offs

AbstractProjected federal spending and taxes are distributed by birth year, gender, race, and lifetime education, using the Congressional Budget Office's 10‐year budget estimates and the Penn Wharton Budget Models' microsimulation. This enables measurement of conventional federal fiscal imbalance (FI): $162.6 trillion in present value, which is six‐fold larger than current debt held by the public. FI implies a shortfall of 26.1% in federal taxes, alternatively, an excess of 33.4% of federal expenditures. The equi‐proportional shortfall of expenditures plus taxes equals 14.6%. Excluding taxes and transfers of some groups, such as the elderly, increases the measured shortfall.

Can the Federal Budget Process Promote Fiscal Sustainability? Evidence from the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990

The Budgetary Enforcement Act of 1990 (BEA90), in effect from 1992 to 2002, is frequently held up as an example of a congressional control that constrained U.S. federal spending. This paper provides a formal test of this conventional wisdom using synthetic control on federal non-defense discretionary expenditures, which is the category of spending BEA90 was considered the most binding. A BEA90-retaining Synthetic United States generated from a lasso regression on a large panel of donors high-income national economic and government finance indicators ultimately reach 2006 at about the same level as the actual United States despite temporarily showing some more restraint immediately upon expiration. We conclude that BEA90 effect on federal non-defense discretionary spending was small, short-lived, statistically likely to have emerged from chance, and more generally did not bend the curve of federal expenditure growth.

Association Between Food Insecurity and Developmental Delay and Behavioral Problems in US Children 2 to 5 Years of Age.

To investigate the relationship between food insecurity and developmental delay and/or behavior problems (DD/PB) in US children aged 2 to 5 years before the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from 14,464 children aged 2 to 5 years from the National Survey of Children's Health from 2016 to 2017 were analyzed. Children with food insecurity came from families reporting they sometimes or often could not afford nutritious meals. Diagnosis of DD/PB by a professional was obtained through a caregiver report. A quarter of children aged 2 to 5 years lived in food insecure homes, and 9% were diagnosed with DD/PB. Children in food insecure households were more likely to be from minoritized populations publicly insured, with single parents, without high school education, living =< 130% Federal poverty line, and receiving supplemental nutrition assistance program (SNAP) benefits (all p < 0.001). Adjusting for age, sex, race, ethnicity, poverty, family structure, and parent education, children in food insecure households had 1.57 times the odds of being diagnosed with DD/PB compared with children in food secure households. In similarly adjusted models excluding poverty and stratified by SNAP use, homes not receiving SNAP maintained this association between food insecurity and diagnosis of DD/PB, whereas in homes receiving SNAP, the association was not significant. In this population-based study, US children aged 2 to 5 years in food insecure households were more likely to be diagnosed with DD/PB compared with those in food secure households. When stratified, there was no association between food insecurity and DD/PB among those receiving SNAP; the association remained for those not receiving SNAP. The potential long-term impact of this safety net program on our most vulnerable citizens must be considered as policymakers contemplate federal spending priorities.

Geographic representation and requests for federal funds in the U.S. senate

AbstractAn essential component of a representative's job centers on deciding where to allocate scarce resources. How do legislators attempt to allocate spending across the geographic units of their constituencies, and what determines a legislator's success in securing these resources? To answer these questions, we create a new dataset of all earmark requests made by U.S. senators in the 117th Congress. This data was recently made available as part of reforms, allowing researchers to examine both requests and outcomes. We show that senators prioritize seeking earmarks for areas of their constituencies critical to their electoral success. We then match these requests to earmarks funded by the Appropriations Committee and show that a legislator's institutional standing and the behavior of their same‐state colleague—but not electoral concerns—shape whether projects are successfully funded. We provide insight into a behind‐the‐scenes aspect of representation and illuminate the strategic dynamics that shape federal spending.

Political Partisanship and Economic Outcomes: Canada, 1870–2020

Abstract This paper examines the role of partisanship at the provincial and federal levels in relation to the functioning of the Canadian economy. At the provincial level (1976–2019), we find no evidence of a traditional partisan effect but do find evidence weakly consistent with a rational partisan cycle a′ la Alesina. At the federal level (1870–2020), we also find no evidence consistent with a distinctive expansion in output arising when the government is controlled by the left-leaning (Liberal) political party although we again find evidence of a weak rational partisan effect. The former result is reinforced by finding the absence of evidence of partisan changes in federal spending and/or taxation. But while the data do not support a theory of left-right partisan policy over the entire post-Confederation (1867) period of Canada’s history, the data do support distinctive periods of partisan influence on aggregate output. The first is consistent with Sir John A. MacDonald’s post-Confederation conservative government’s adoption of a policy of nation-building based on the railway, immigration, and tariffs. The second is the period between 1885 and 1933 where traditional left-right partisanship is evident and the third is the period following the Great Depression where a distinction between the outcomes arising under left- versus right-leaning parties is no longer apparent.

Elite Cueing, Gender, and the Partisan Gap in Environmental Support

ABSTRACT This study extends research on how political and social contexts mediate the relationship between men’s and women’s political identities and their support for the environment. Our test consists of a 3 × 2 factorial survey experiment that interacts an individual’s partisan identity with three conditions modeling elite support for federal spending to protect the environment. Democrats demonstrate consistently high rates of support regardless of legislative sponsorship. Among Republicans, when Democratic legislators sponsor environmental legislation, support drops about 18% compared to conditions where a bipartisan group sponsors legislation. Support among Republican women, however, remains relatively stable across experimental conditions. Republican variations in support are almost entirely attributable to declines in support among Republican men, whose support drops an average of 24% when Democratic legislators sponsor legislation. In conclusion, intraparty gender differences in opinions and support should be considered more broadly, especially when examining polarized public issues.

Assessing the Role of Organizational Behavior in Secondary School Management in Nigeria

Organisational behaviour in Nigerian secondary school management is examined in this essay. Nigeria faces many obstacles that make it hard to provide empowering, sustainable secondary education to the young. Insufficient federal, state, and local financing is education's biggest issue. Between 1997 and 2000, federal education spending was below 10% of total spending. According to the paper, secondary school organisational conduct is a major issue that can be addressed by vivid organisational observation. Secondary school settings have numerous perspectives and backgrounds, making it difficult to modify rapidly. However, school management can employ organisational behavioural theories to minimise this. If school administration understands organisational behaviour, kids can succeed. Secondary school administrators should also know how to manage and build strong relationships with students and parents for a positive school climate and to fulfill educational goals. Organisational behaviour helps school administrators motivate staff and pupils to succeed. Keywords: Development, Educational goals, Organizational behaviour, School administrator, Secondary school managemen

Statistical learning to identify salient factors influencing FEMA public assistance outlays

Both the number of disasters in the U.S. and federal outlays following disasters are rising. FEMA’s Public Assistance (PA) is a key program for rebuilding damaged public infrastructure and aiding local and state governments in recovery. It is the primary post-disaster source of recovery funds. Between 2000 and 2019, more than $125B (adjusted, 2020 dollars) was awarded through PA. While all who qualify for PA should have equal opportunity to receive aid, not all do, and the factors influencing how the program has been administered are complex and multifaceted. Lacking an understanding of the factors positively associated with historical receipt of aid, there is little way to objectively evaluate the efficacy of the PA program. In this work, we evaluate the salient features that contribute to the number of county-level PA applicants and projects following disasters. We use statistical learning theory applied to repetitive flooding events in the upper Midwest between 2003 and 2018 as a case study. The results suggest that many non-disaster related indicators are key predictors of PA outlays, including the state in which the disaster occurred, the county’s prior experience with disasters, the county’s median income, and the length of time between the end of the disaster and the date when a disaster is declared. Our work suggests that indicators of PA aid are tied to exposure, bureaucratic attributes, and human behavior. For equitable distribution of aid, policymakers should explore more disaster-relevant indicators for PA distribution.

Implications of cannabis legalization for the US federal budget

AbstractFederal legislation to legalize, regulate, and tax cannabis could have significant impacts on the federal budget. While the specific details of any potential cannabis legalization legislation are unknown at present, such reforms are likely to affect both tax receipts and federal outlays through a wide range of mechanisms including excise tax collections, changes in the size and composition of the labor force, and the major federal health care programs. We identify the main federal budgetary implications of legalizing cannabis and estimate their likely magnitude where possible.

Spread management priorities to limit emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) impacts on United States street trees

AbstractThe invasive emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) causes damage to street trees which is estimated to reach US$ 900 million over the next 30 years. Although millions of dollars are spent annually to control this species, spatiotemporal management plans are often based on rules of thumb that ignore future pest dispersal. Here, we reveal an optimal management strategy to protect urban trees in North America from A. planipennis. To achieve this, we embedded a pest dispersal model within a mixed integer programming framework. We discovered that optimized strategies consistently outperformed those based on rules of thumb, potentially resulting in the protection of an additional nearly 1 million street trees and savings of $ 629 million. Critically, the best management strategies always relied on quarantines and biological control (constituting 98–99% and 1–2% of the project budget, respectively), in contrast with current practices, where federal spending has been diverted to biological control. Our findings serve to inform future pest control efforts and can help protect many more trees from this invasive species.

Trends in the use of US federal emergency supplemental appropriations for disasters.

Federal appropriation for disaster prevention through recovery occurs across a complex landscape of funding mechanisms. Emergency supplemental appropriations are one such mechanism and increasingly a way that Congress funds disasters. These bills also often include nondisaster-related spending. To better identify congressional tendencies in the use of emergency appropriations for disasters, including the frequency and dollar value of such spending, we analyzed publicly available data on emergency appropriations over the first two decades of the 21st century. Using legislative appropriations data from the Congressional Budget Office for all supplemental appropriations enacted for fiscal years 2000 through 2020, we calculated that nondefense spending for disasters via supplemental appropriation represented USD 1.024 trillion in budget authority across 40 bills over this period. Natural disaster emergencies accounted for 58 percent of the federal government's emergency supplemental spending, with the rest generally related to Global War on Terror and other military activities. Among the spending prompted by presidential request, the difference between how much funding the president had requested for that emergency (if any) and a congressional appropriation of emergency funding reveals no apparent trend over the time period studied, although confirmatory analysis is obscured by a dearth of data points. As the risk of disasters and, particularly, the rate and size of billion-dollar disasters increases, characterizing the congressional approach to the funding of disasters may allow improved understanding of whether this approach is optimized to meet the needs of disasters in the 21st century and whether response spending should be mitigated through proactive and routine appropriations toward resilience targets.

Welfare, egalitarianism, and polarization: the politics of noncontributory social programs

AbstractThis study analyzes the link between egalitarian ideals and the rise in party polarization in Congress. To demonstrate how philosophical differences over conceptions of fairness, equality, and justice help explain the recent growth in partisanship over the past few decades, I argue one overlooked explanatory factor which assists in capturing this ideological rift is noncontributory welfare spending. Recovering annual ideal point estimates between 1947 and 2018 that are comparable with annual federal spending, I use multivariate time series models and find convincing evidence which suggests welfare outlays have a strong short- and long-run effect on polarization. Moreover, analysis of the roll call record also shows when ideal point estimates are recovered by specific policy area, lawmakers exhibit higher levels of ideological separation on welfare compared to, among others, policies such as defense and transportation. Robustness checks confirm these findings also hold even when controlling for income inequality.

The Expected Distributional Weight of Federal Outlays for Weighted Benefit-Cost Analysis

The Expected Distributional Weight of Federal Outlays for Weighted Benefit-Cost Analysis

Public Benefit Programs and Differential Associations With Child Maltreatment by Race and Ethnicity

Public benefit programs, including state spending on local, state, and federal-state partnership programs, have consistently been associated with overall reductions in child protective services (CPS) involvement. Inequities in eligibility and access to benefit programs may contribute to varying associations by race and ethnicity. To determine whether associations between state spending on benefit programs and rates of CPS investigations differ by race and ethnicity. This cross-sectional ecological study used repeated state-level measures of child maltreatment from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System and population estimates from the US Census Bureau for all Black, Hispanic, and White children. All 50 US states from October 1, 2009, through September 30, 2019 (fiscal years 2010-2019), were included. Data were collected and analyzed from May 13, 2022, to March 2, 2023. Annual state spending on benefit programs per person living below the federal poverty limit, total and by the following subcategories: (1) cash, housing, and in-kind; (2) housing infrastructure; (3) child care assistance; (4) refundable earned income tax credit; and (5) medical assistance programs. Race- and ethnicity-specific rates of CPS investigations. Generalized estimating equations, with repeated measures of states, an interaction between race and spending, and estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% CIs for incremental changes in spending of US $1000 per person living below the federal poverty limit were calculated after adjustment for federal spending, race- and ethnicity-specific child poverty rate, and year. A total of 493 state-year observations were included in the analysis. The association between total spending and CPS investigations differed significantly by race and ethnicity: there was an inverse association between total state spending and CPS investigations for White children (IRR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.91-0.98]) but not for Black children (IRR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.94-1.02]) or Hispanic children (IRR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.95-1.03]) (P = .02 for interaction). Likewise, inverse associations were present for only White children with respect to all subcategories of state spending and differed significantly from Black and Hispanic children for all subcategories except the refundable earned income tax credit (eg, IRR for medical assistance programs for White children, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.82-0.96]; P = .005 for race and spending interaction term). These results raise concerns that benefit programs may add relative advantages for White children compared with Black and Hispanic children and contribute to racial and ethnic disparities in CPS investigations. States' eligibility criteria and distribution practices should be examined to promote equitable effects on adverse child outcomes.

National Health Care Spending In 2022: Growth Similar To Prepandemic Rates.

Health care spending in the US grew 4.1percent to reach $4.5trillion in 2022, which was still a faster rate of growth than the increase of 3.2percent in 2021 but was much slower than the rate of 10.6percent seen in 2020. In 2022, strong Medicaid and private health insurance spending growth, including a turnaround in the net cost of insurance, was somewhat offset by continued declines in federal spending associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The insured share of the population reached a historic high of 92.0percent in 2022 as enrollment in private health insurance increased at a faster rate relative to 2021 and Medicaid enrollment continued to experience strong growth. The share of the economy accounted for by the health sector was 17.3percent in 2022, which was down from a peak of 19.5percent in 2020 but was more consistent with the average share of 17.5percent during 2016-19.

Federal and State Programs and Resources for Chronic Kidney Disease.

In this final column by Paul Baldwin, there is discussion of the disease state specialties that pharmacists must be familiar with in their daily work. Chronic kidney disease (CKD), including end-stage renal disease (ESRD), has been the subject of much state and federal spending over several years. Government support has gone beyond health-program support and has extended to economic support as well.

More Money, Less Credit? Legislator Gender and the Effectiveness of Congressional Credit Claiming

AbstractBringing home federal spending projects to the district is a common reelection strategy for members of the U.S. Congress, and congresswomen tend to outperform congressmen in securing district spending. However, for legislators to turn distributive benefits into higher approval and electoral rewards, constituents must recognize that public spending has taken place in their community and attribute credit to the correct public official. I theorize that congresswomen face a gender bias when claiming credit for federal projects, and I test this theory through an online survey experiment. Contrary to expectations, I find no evidence that legislator gender influences the public’s reaction to congressional credit claims, indicating that congresswomen can effectively use distributive politics to counter gendered vulnerability in the U.S. Congress. This research advances the literature on gender and politics by investigating whether a gender bias in credit claiming prevents congresswomen from turning their representational efforts into electoral capital.

Can’t buy me love? An experiment on the relationship between federal grant spending and public approval of federal agencies

ABSTRACT Previous research finds that grant spending can improve the standing of politicians and institutions with some in the public. It is unclear whether this effect holds for federal agencies as well, which are largely responsible for allocating these funds. We develop a theory that links agency grant spending to the likelihood of an individual supporting the awarding federal agency, with the expectation that this relationship is conditioned by the citizen’s partisan identification. Using a survey experiment, we find that an increase in federal grant spending, from agencies that they politically oppose, is associated with Republicans offering a more negative evaluation.

Gerald Ford: A minority legislator promoting New Right Lite

AbstractIntroductionAs President Gerald Ford drew on his experience as House minority leader to promote what can be characterized New Right Lite. New Right Lite rejects both the increasing conservatism of the Republican Party after 1964 and the continued creation of large federal programs favored by Democrats.MethodUsing both primary and secondary sources, I seek to explore the way President Ford formulated public policy.ResultsPresident Ford used both flexibility and negotiation and a veto strategy as president, reflecting the minority strategy of stopping the expansion of government.ConclusionI argue that President Ford used the leverage of vetoes to accomplish his goals of lesser federal spending and domestic policies that promoted traditional conservative ideals such as federalism while also fashioning alternative policies.

Unconditional federal transfers and state government spending: The flypaper effect in Nigeria and South Africa

The flypaper effect is undoubtedly among the most interesting concepts in subnational government spending behavior. This study is the first attempt to provide empirical evidence on the existence of the flypaper effect in the two largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa: Nigeria and South Africa. Using the two-step system generalized method of moment’s estimator, our results show that the flypaper effect exists for both state and provincial governments in Nigeria and South Africa. Provincial governments in South Africa are found to be more responsive to positive changes in unconditional federal transfers than state governments in Nigeria. We therefore recommend sen­sitization on the receipt and disbursement of unconditional federal transfers. This will help reduce the illusion or information asymmetry about the use of unconditional federal transfers.