Fatal Crash Involvement Rates Research Articles

Older Driver Crash Involvement and Fatalities, by Age and Sex, 2000-2017.

Federal reporting of crash fatalities has limited age-by-sex stratification, but both age and sex are associated with driving reduction and cessation. We described older driver fatal crash involvement and fatalities using Fatality Analysis Reporting System data to calculate rates (per 100,000 licensed drivers, per 100,000 population) with age-by-sex stratifications. Nationally from 2000 through 2017, 110,422 drivers 65+ were involved in crashes resulting in at least one death within 30 days, and 67,843 of these older drivers died. Involvement and fatality rates per 100,000 licensed drivers in 2017 were lowest for females 65-69 (7.7 and 3.6, respectively) and highest for males age 85+ (34.3 and 25.5, respectively). Females had lower driver fatal crash involvement and fatality rates throughout the lifespan, even when rates generally decreased over time. Elaborating fatal crash trends and rates by age and sex helps to differentiate the public health burden of older driver crashes and fatalities.

Fatality rate of pedestrians and fatal crash involvement rate of drivers in pedestrian crashes: a case study of Iran

The aim of this study was to uncover patterns of pedestrian crashes. In the first stage, 34,178 pedestrian-involved crashes occurred in Iran during a four-year period were grouped into homogeneous clusters using a clustering analysis. Next, some in-cluster and inter-cluster crash patterns were analysed. The clustering analysis yielded six pedestrian crash groups. Car/van/pickup crashes on rural roads as well as heavy vehicle crashes were found to be less frequent but more likely to be fatal compared to other crash clusters. In addition, after controlling for crash frequency in each cluster, it was found that the fatality rate of each pedestrian age group as well as the fatal crash involvement rate of each driver age group varies across the six clusters. Results of present study has some policy implications including, promoting pedestrian safety training sessions for heavy vehicle drivers, imposing limitations over elderly heavy vehicle drivers, reinforcing penalties toward under 19 drivers and motorcyclists. In addition, road safety campaigns in rural areas may be promoted to inform people about the higher fatality rate of pedestrians on rural roads. The crash patterns uncovered in this study might also be useful for prioritizing future pedestrian safety research areas.

Driver license renewal policies and fatal crash involvement rates of older drivers, United States, 1986-2011.

BackgroundOlder drivers experience elevated risk of motor vehicle crash involvement, injury, and death. Several states attempt to address these risks through driver license renewal policies; however, little is known about their effects.MethodsData from 46 U.S. states from years 1986–2011 were examined. Associations between driver licensing policies and population-based fatal crash involvement rates of drivers aged 55 years and older, in 5-year age groups, were estimated using population-averaged negative binomial regression. Estimates were adjusted for seasonality, time trends, other traffic safety laws, and economic factors. Ratios of relative risks (RRR), which compared changes in fatal crash involvement rates of older drivers associated with changes in licensing policies to corresponding changes in fatal crashes of drivers ages 40–54, were computed to account for other possible sources of confounding.ResultsMandatory in-person renewal was associated with a 31% reduction in the fatal crash involvement rates of drivers ages 85 and older (RRR: 0.69, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.48–0.97). When in-person renewal was not required, requiring drivers to pass a vision test was associated with a similar reduction for drivers ages 85+ (RRR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.49–0.85). When in-person renewal was required, however, requiring a vision test was not associated with any additional reduction, nor was requiring a knowledge test or an on-road driving test. Requiring more frequent license renewal and requiring healthcare providers to report concerns about patients’ driving ability to licensing authorities were not associated with statistically significant reductions in fatal crash involvement rates of older drivers. No policy examined was found to have a significant impact on fatal crash involvement of drivers younger than 85.ConclusionsRequiring drivers to renew their license in person, or to pass a vision test if not renewing in person, was associated with significant reductions in population-based fatal crash involvement rates for drivers ages 85 and older. The study could not determine how these effects were achieved, for example by specifically removing unsafe older drivers from the driving population or by fostering premature driving cessation. Other policies examined were not found to reduce fatal crash involvement rates of older drivers.

Trends in older driver crash involvement rates and survivability in the United States: An update

ObjectivePrevious research has shown that fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver aged 70 and older declined significantly more per year in the United States than rates for middle-aged drivers aged 35–54 during 1997–2008, and per vehicle mile traveled from 1995–1996 to 2001–2002. Analyses of police-reported crash data during 1997–2005 indicated that the greater declines for older drivers were due to decreases in crash involvement and in the risk of dying in the crashes that occurred. The current study examined if trends in crash rates, crash involvements, and survivability persisted into more recent years. MethodsTrends for drivers 70 and older were compared with trends for drivers aged 35–54 for U.S. national fatal passenger vehicle crash involvements per 100,000 licensed drivers during 1997–2012 and for U.S. national fatal passenger vehicle crash involvements per vehicle miles traveled in 1995–1996, 2001–2002, and 2008. Using police-reported crash data during 1997–2008 from 20 U.S. states, trends in involvement rates in non-fatal crashes of various severities per 100,000 licensed drivers and changes in the odds of death and the odds of death or serious injury in a crash were compared between older and middle-aged drivers. ResultsDuring 2007–2012, declines in national fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver were similar for drivers 70 and older and middle-aged drivers (18 percent each). However, when considering the entire study period, fatal crash involvement rates continued to reflect a substantially larger decline for drivers 70 and older than for middle-aged drivers (42 vs. 30 percent per licensed driver during 1997–2012, 39 vs. 26 percent per vehicle mile traveled from 1995–2006 to 2008). When analyses of police-reported crash data were extended through 2008, non-fatal injury crash involvement rates per licensed driver declined more for older than for middle-aged drivers (39 vs. 30 percent), and unlike in prior research, average annual declines were significantly larger for drivers 80 and older. Property damage-only crash involvement rates similarly declined significantly more for older than for middle-aged drivers (15 vs. 3 percent). Drivers 70 and older in 1997 were 3.5 times more likely than middle-aged drivers to die in a crash, and this ratio declined to 3.2 by 2008. ConclusionsAlthough declines in fatal crash involvement rates in recent years have not differed between older and middle-aged drivers, this did not undo earlier gains for older drivers. The recent slowing in the relative magnitude of the decline for older drivers may be related to the differential effect of the U.S. recession on fatal crash involvements of drivers in these age groups. The decreased likelihood of being involved in a crash of any severity and increased survivability when a crash occurred held when examining data through 2008, and for drivers 80 and older, significant declines in crash involvement relative to middle-aged drivers extended to non-fatal injury crashes.

Estimating the over-involvement of suspended, revoked, and unlicensed drivers as at-fault drivers in California fatal crashes

Introduction and MethodQuasi-induced exposure analysis was used to estimate annual fatal crash involvement rates for validly licensed, suspended or revoked (S/R), and unlicensed drivers in California from 1987 through 2009 using fatal crash data obtained from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's Fatality Analysis Reporting System and crash culpability determinations from the California Highway Patrol's Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System. ResultsAlthough there was some year-to-year fluctuation in the annual estimates, S/R and unlicensed drivers were over-involved as at-fault drivers in fatal crashes during every year of the 23-year time period relative to validly licensed drivers. The fatal crash involvement ratios combined across all years were 0.86 for validly licensed drivers, 2.23 for S/R drivers, and 2.34 for unlicensed drivers. Hence, compared to validly licensed drivers, the odds of being at-fault for a fatal crash were 160% higher for S/R drivers (involvement ratio=2.60) and 173% higher for unlicensed drivers (involvement ratio=2.73). The excess risks of S/R and unlicensed drivers are somewhat lower than estimates found in a prior study using the same technique, but the results nonetheless provide evidence that S/R and unlicensed drivers are much more hazardous on the road than are validly licensed drivers and emphasize the importance of using strong countermeasures—including vehicle impoundment—to reduce their high crash risk. These findings support interventions to help reduce driving among S/R and unlicensed drivers.

Commentary: Teenage Driver Fatal Crash Rate Trends: What Do They Reveal?

Objective: To determine long-term fatal crash rate trends of teenage drivers in the United States, before and after the introduction of graduated driver licensing programs.Methods: Teenage driver fatal crash involvement rates were calculated for 1990-2011 and referenced to rates for 25- to 59-year-olds.Results: The results indicated reductions in teen crash rates coincident with the economic downturn in 2008-2009 and reductions at ages 16 and 17 reflecting the introduction graduated driver licensing (GDL) but no effects positive or negative at ages 18 and 19.Conclusions: The high crash rates at 18 and 19 relative to other ages call for attention, including extending GDL to ages older than 17.

Commercial Driver Factors in Run-off-Road Crashes

The number of commercial vehicles on U.S. roads has grown dramatically over the past few decades. Although the number of large trucks involved in fatal and injury crashes has decreased over the past 20 years, large trucks still have a higher fatal crash involvement rate than passenger cars do. This study sought to gain insights on the impact of commercial driver factors on crash severity with respect to single-vehicle, run-off-road (ROR) crashes. A logistic model was conducted with large truck crash data from the Washington State Department of Transportation (years 2006 to 2009). The model predicted the effects of truck driver distraction, inattention, speeding, seat belt usage, and drowsiness and fatigue on the likelihood of an ROR crash involving injury or fatality. Other factors, such as environmental conditions, roadway types, and truck-related factors, were controlled in the model. Results indicated that speeding, drowsiness and fatigue, and distraction and inattention strongly affected increasing crash severity. As expected, seat belt use significantly decreased the severity of an ROR crash. The study confirms that several driver factors observed in other studies on crash likelihood are also significant for ROR crashes involving large trucks.

Declines in fatal crashes of older drivers: Changes in crash risk and survivability

ObjectivesPrevious research has found that older driver fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver declined substantially in the United States during 1997–2006 and declined much faster than the rate for middle-age drivers. The current study examined whether the larger-than-expected decline for older drivers extended to nonfatal crashes and whether the decline in fatal crash risk reflects lower likelihood of crashing or an improvement in survivability of the crashes that occur. MethodsTrends in the rates of passenger vehicle crash involvements per 100,000 licensed drivers for drivers 70 and older (older drivers) were compared with trends for drivers ages 35–54 (middle-age drivers). Fatal crash information was obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System for years 1997–2008, and nonfatal crash information was obtained from 13 states with good reporting information for years 1997–2005. Analysis of covariance models compared trends in annual crash rates for older drivers relative to rates for middle-age drivers. Differences in crash survivability were measured in terms of the odds of fatality given a crash each year, and the historical trends for older versus middle-age drivers were compared. ResultsFatal crash involvement rates declined for older and middle-age drivers during 1997–2008 (1997–2005 for the 13 state subsample), but the decline for drivers 70 and older far exceeded the decline for drivers ages 35–54 (37 versus 23 percent, nationally; 22 versus 1 percent, 13 states). Nonfatal injury crash involvement rates showed similarly larger-than-expected declines for older drivers in the 13 state subsample, but the differences were smaller and not statistically significant (27 percent reduction for older drivers versus 16 percent for middle-age drivers). Property-damage-only crash involvement rates declined for older drivers (10 percent) but increased for middle-age drivers (1 percent). In 1997, older drivers were 3.5 times more likely than middle-age drivers to die in police-reported crashes (6.2 versus 1.8 deaths per 1000 crashes), but this difference was reduced during the 9-year study period to 2.9 times, as the rate of older drivers dying in a crash declined (5.5 deaths per 1000 crashes in 2005) and the death risk remained relatively stable for middle-age drivers. ConclusionsContrary to expectations based on increased licensure and travel by older drivers, their fatal crash risk has declined during the past decade and has declined at a faster rate than for middle-age drivers. The decreased risk for older drivers appears to extend not only to nonfatal injury crashes but also to property-damage-only crashes, at least as reported to police in the 13 states included in the nonfatal injury analysis. Although insurance collision data suggest that overall crash risk of older drivers may not be changing relative to middle-age drivers, the current analysis indicates that the reduced fatality risk of older drivers reflects both less likelihood of being involved in a police-reported crash and greater likelihood that they will survive when they do crash.

Evaluation of New Jersey's Graduated Driver Licensing Program

Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate New Jersey's unique combination of a higher licensing age and a strong GDL system applicable to all novice drivers. Methods: Population-based crash rates for drivers of ages potentially affected by GDL were compared, pre- and post-GDL implementation, with those of adults ages 25–59, using data on fatal crashes and on all police-reported crashes. Results: After GDL implementation, there were statistically significant reductions in the crash rates of 17-year-olds, based on all reported crashes (16%), injury crashes (14%), and fatal crashes (25%), relative to those of drivers ages 25–59. The crash rates of 18-year-olds decreased significantly on the basis of all reported crashes (10%) and injury crashes (10%), relative to those of drivers ages 25–59. The fatal crash involvement rate of 18-year-olds decreased by 4 percent, which was not statistically significant. There was also a statistically significant reduction in fatal crashes of 16-year-old drivers; however, this is unlikely to have been attributable to GDL. Significant reductions in nighttime crashes (of all severity levels) of drivers ages 17 and 18 were observed, as were significant yet smaller reductions in their daytime crash rates. Reductions in fatal crashes of 17- and 18-year-olds carrying more than one passenger were sizable (23 and 24%, respectively) but were not statistically significant. Conclusions: New Jersey's licensing age of 17 eliminates most crashes at age 16. To the extent that the relative inexperience of 17-year-old drivers may negatively impact their crash rates, this effect appears to be largely blunted by New Jersey's strong GDL system. New Jersey's GDL system also reduces crashes at age 18, an age group untouched by other states' GDL systems. New Jersey's combination of licensing policies for young drivers is a model for the nation.

Graduated Driver Licensing Programs and Fatal Crashes of 16-Year-Old Drivers: A National Evaluation

Implementation of graduated driver licensing programs is associated with reductions in crash rates of young drivers, but graduated driver licensing programs vary in their components. The impact of programs with different components is unknown. The purpose of this work was to determine which graduated driver licensing programs are associated with the greatest reductions in fatal motor vehicle crashes involving 16-year-old drivers. We conducted a retrospective study of all 16-year-old drivers involved in fatal crashes in the United States from 1994 through 2004 using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and the US Census Bureau. We measured incidence rate ratios of fatal motor vehicle crashes involving 16-year-old drivers according to graduated driver licensing programs, adjusted for state and year. Compared with state quarters with no graduated driver licensing program components, reductions of 16% to 21% in fatal crash involvement rates of 16-year-old drivers occurred with programs that included > or = 3-month mandatory waiting period, nighttime driving restriction, and either > or = 30 hours of supervised driving or passenger restriction. Reductions of 18% to 21% occurred in state quarters with programs that included > or = 5 of the 7 components examined. Drivers aged 20 to 24 or 25 to 29 years did not experience significant reductions. Comprehensive graduated driver licensing programs are associated with reductions of approximately 20% in 16-year-old drivers' fatal crash involvement rates. The greatest benefit seems to be associated with programs that include age requirements and > or = 3 months of waiting before the intermediate stage, nighttime driving restriction, and either > or = 30 hours of supervised driving or passenger restriction.

Fatal motor vehicle crashes in rural and urban areas: decomposing rates into contributing factors

Objectives: Motor vehicle crash fatality rates have been consistently higher in rural areas than in urban areas. However, the explanations for these differences are less clear. In this study the...

Some consequences of different older driver licensing procedures in Australia

Given both the expected growth in the number of older drivers and their over-involvement in fatal and serious injury crashes, there has been a world-wide call for improved licensing procedures to manage older driver safety. In particular, licensing authorities have been urged to move from mandatory assessment of all older drivers to assessment practices targeting only those at higher crash risk. The current study examined older driver fatal and serious injury crash involvement rates across all Australian States to determine a possible association with the different licensing procedures. In particular, older driver crash involvement rates in Victoria (where there is no age-based assessment program) have been compared with rates in other jurisdictions with assessment programs. Crash involvement rates have been calculated using two denominators: per population and per number of licensed drivers. Some data limitations notwithstanding, older drivers in jurisdictions with age-based mandatory assessment programs could not be shown to be safer than drivers in Victoria. Further, there is some indicative evidence that older drivers in Victoria may have a significantly safer record regarding overall involvement in serious casualty crashes.

Methodology for Estimating Vehicle Miles Traveled for Commercial Motor Vehicles at the State Level

Described is one specific effort to better estimate commercial motor vehicle-related exposure at the state level in order to better determine commercial motor vehicle-related crash rates for state and federal programs. Limitations in the crash and exposure data affect the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration and a state’s ability to plan and assess operations and conduct ongoing analyses of program effectiveness. One important limitation has been the lack of reliable estimates of commercial motor vehicle exposure data at the state level. Exposure data, for the purpose of this report, are defined as the number of truck and bus vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Described is the methodology that was developed to calculate adjusted state VMT for commercial vehicles; results are presented for 1999 and 2000. The results support estimation of crash involvement rates for each state and provide exposure data for other analytical studies. The methodology to calculate adjusted state VMT for commercial motor vehicles has resulted in improved information resources in support of all crash analyses. The adjusted state VMT for commercial vehicles supports measurement of program effectiveness and development of countermeasures to promote motor carrier safety. The adjusted state VMT for commercial motor vehicles methodology and the commercial vehicle fatal-crash involvement rate reports enable state and federal agencies to better focus their safety programs and enforcement resources.

Fatal crashes among older drivers: decomposition of rates into contributing factors.

This study selected US drivers aged 55 years or older who were involved in fatal crashes in 1990 and 1995 and explored factors that influenced their fatal crash involvement rate. The fatal crash involvement rate (risk of being involved in a fatal crash) can be thought of as the product of the crash fatality rate (risk of dying given a crash), the crash incidence density (risk of crash), and the exposure prevalence (amount of driving). Fatal crash involvement rates increased with age. The relative contributions of the crash incidence densities and exposure prevalences were greater than that of the crash fatality rates. The decomposition methodology was shown to be a useful method for investigating the potential benefit of crash prevention interventions aimed at different components of the fatal crash involvement rate.

Are Female Drivers Safer? An Application of the Decomposition Method

Using the decomposition method and national data for the year 1990, we examined gender and age differences in involvement rates in fatal motor vehicle crashes. The fatal crash involvement rate per driver is expresses as a multiplicative function of the crash fatality rate (defined as the proportion of fatal crashes involved among all crashes involved), crash incidence density (that is, number of crashes per million person-miles), and exposure prevalence (that is, annual average miles driven per driver). The fatal crash involvement rate per 10,000 drivers for men was three times that for women (5.3 vs 1.7) and was highest among teenagers. Of the male-female discrepancy in the fatal crash involvement rates, 51% was attributed to the difference between sexes in crash fatality rates, 41% to the difference in exposure prevalence, and 8% to the difference in crash incidence density. Age-related variations in the fatal crash involvement rates resulted primarily from the differences in crash incidence density. The results indicate that, despite having lower fatal crash involvement rates, female drivers do not seem to be safer than their male counterparts when exposure is considered. The decomposition method is valuable as both a conceptual framework and an exploratory tool for understanding the contributing factors related to cause-specific injury mortality and the differences in death rates among populations.

The effect of raising the legal minimum drinking age on fatal crashes in 10 states

Raising the legal minimum drinking age in 10 states reduced the fatal motor-vehicle accident involvement rate of licensed drivers affected by the law changes. The ratio of single-vehicle nighttime fatalities per 1,000 licensed drivers decreased significantly among drivers in the age group affected by the law, whereas no significant change in ratio was found among drivers in a com- parison group aged 25 to 29 years. Further, the before-after changes in ratios for drivers in the affected age group were significantly greater than the changes for drivers in the comparison group. The single-vehicle nighttime fatal crash involvement rate of drivers affected by the law change decreased an average of 21 % in the 10 states.

Nighttime driving and fatal crash involvement of teenagers

Data from the 1977 National Personal Transportation Survey and from the Fatal Accident Reporting System were used to compute mileage-based fatal crash involvement rates of drivers, by age, sex, and time of day. Teenagers drive less than older drivers but do more of their driving at night. They have much higher numbers of drivers in fatal crashes based on miles driven than do older drivers; their nighttime rates are particularly high. Sixteen year olds, especially males, have by far the highest fatal crash rates per mile, both nighttime and daytime. More widespread adoption of driving curfew laws would very likely produce substantial reductions in fatalities involving 16 yr old drivers.

Driver education and fatal crash involvement of teenaged drivers.

Fatal crash involvement of teenagers per licensed driver and per population in 27 states was related to the proportions of teenagers who received high school driver education. Among 16--17 year olds, driver education was associated with a great increase in the number of licensed drivers, without a decrease in the fatal crash involvement per 10,000 licensed drivers- About 80 per cent of the 16--17 year olds who took high school driver education obtained licenses that they would not otherwise have obtained until age 18 or thereafter. The net effect is much higher death involvement rates per 10,000 population, on average, in states with greater proportions of 16-17 year olds receiving high school driver education. The data suggest that most teenagers would obtain licenses when they are 18--19 years old, irrespective of high school driver education, and indicate that differences among the states in fatal crash involvement rates per 10,000 licensed 18--19 year old drivers were not significantly related to either high school driver education or delayed licensure.

Prior violation records of 1447 drivers involved in fatal crashes

Driving records were examined for 1447 drivers involved in fatal crashes during a two-year period. The fatal crash involvement rate per 100,000 drivers was found to be higher in approximate proportion to the number of convictions for violations in three years prior to the fatal crash. However, the majority of drivers involved in fatal crashes had no convictions for violations in the prior three years. Drivers with extremely deviant driving records, including so-called “habitual offenders,” were only a small proportion of drivers involved in fatal crashes and did not have involvement rates as high as other groups such as drivers under 20 years of age with only a few convictions. It was shown that conviction records and descriptives—age, sex, race—in motor vehicle administration files can be used to identify groups with greater probability of involvement in fatal crashes. It is not possible, however, to identify a small group in the population that accounts for more than a small proportion of all fatal crashes.