Drought In Ethiopia Research Articles

The phenomenon of drought in Ethiopia: Historical evolution and climatic forcing

ABSTRACT This study examines drought patterns in Ethiopia's 12 major river basins from 1981 to 2018 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Both indices reveal historical drought episodes with slight variations, with significant differences in 1984, 2009, and 2015. Except for the Wabi-Shebelle catchment in southern Ethiopia, all river basins show an increasing trend in SPI12 and SPEI12 indices. The eastern and central regions experience more drought according to SPEI3. Seasonal correlations show that during the March–May rainy season, precipitation is negatively correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index, while in the June–September season, it negatively correlates with Nino 3.4 and positively with IOD. The study also found that El Niño leads to less rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, while La Niña results in more rainfall in the central and northern highlands but less in the south.

An Experimental Study of Climate Change Messages: Who and How Many to Feature?

ABSTRACT There is some evidence to suggest an absence of emotional activation about climate change, partly due to the perception of it as a distant phenomenon. Little research to date has also examined whether individual portrayals are best within the context of psychological distance. There is also a lack of studies that experimentally evaluate human and animal messaging using a causal research design. We examine human and animal effects and individual and group effects on a set of psychological and behavioral variables: psychological distance, positive emotions, negative emotions, pro-environmental intent, and donation behavior. We explore these variables across two separate experiments that manipulate the content of a hypothetical news article describing climate change impacts: one featuring drought in Ethiopia and the other featuring wildfires in Arizona. Findings suggest that the psychological distance subdimensions of geographic, hypotheticality, and temporal distance matter for climate change messages and that messages that emphasize impacts on animals may actually diminish distance on these subdimensions relative to messages that feature humans.

AU Security Council Reform Proposal: Principle of Equality and Challenges

In the 21st century, the international status of African countries has risen. The power and status mismatch has the AU seeking a boost in the UN. Africans strive for autonomous resolution of indigenous challenges. The failure of the United Nations to resolve African issues has aroused African dissatisfaction, as evidenced by historical events such as the Rwandan massacre, the Somalia famine, and the Congo civil war. Africa claims that the current power structure within the Security Council pays insufficient attention to the interests of the continent, prompting the submission of proposals for reform of the African Union Security Council. This proposal is in line with the principle of equality in the UN Charter, especially the principle of regional balance. The equal cooperation between Africa and China also reflects the AUs understanding of the principle of equality. However, the prospect of the AU Security Council reform proposal faces multiple challenges. The AUs weak intervention capability as a leading organization in Africa and the leadership struggles within Africa are all factors that need to be considered.

Livelihood vulnerability and socio-economic determinants of households to climate change-induced recurrent drought in Ethiopia

Livelihood vulnerability and socio-economic determinants of households to climate change-induced recurrent drought in Ethiopia

Drought, armed conflict and population mortality in Somalia, 2014-2018: A statistical analysis.

During 2010-2012, extreme food insecurity and famine in Somalia were estimated to account for 256,000 deaths. Since 2014 Somalia has experienced recurrent below-average rainfall, with consecutive failed rains in late 2016 and 2017 leading to large-scale drought, displacement and epidemics. We wished to estimate mortality across Somalia from 2014 to 2018, and measure the excess death toll attributable to the 2017-2018 drought-triggered crisis. We used a statistical approach akin to small-area estimation, and relying solely on existing data. We identified and re-analysed 91 household surveys conducted at the district level and estimating the crude (CDR) and under 5 years death rate (U5DR) over retrospective periods of 3-4 months. We captured datasets of candidate predictors of mortality with availability by district and month. We also reconstructed population denominators by district-month combining alternative census estimates and displacement data. We combined these data inputs into predictive models to estimate CDR and U5DR and combined the predictions with population estimates to project death tolls. Excess mortality was estimated by constructing counterfactual no-crisis scenarios. Between 2013 and 2018, Somalia's population increased from 12.0 to 13.5 million, and internally displaced people or returnees reached 20% of the population. We estimated an excess death toll of 44,700 in the most likely counterfactual scenario, and as high as 163,800 in a pessimistic scenario. By contrast to 2010-2012, excess deaths were widespread across Somalia, including central and northern regions. This analysis suggests that the 2017-2018 crisis had a lower, albeit still very substantial, mortality impact than its 2010-2012 predecessor. Despite modest elevations in death rate, crisis conditions were widespread and affected a population of millions. Humanitarian response to drought-related crises in Somalia needs to be strengthened, target the most vulnerable and emphasise very early interventions.

The contribution of community health systems to resilience: Case study of the response to the drought in Ethiopia.

BackgroundEthiopia’s exposure to the El Niño drought (2015-2016) resulted in high malnutrition, internally displaced people, and epidemics of communicable diseases, all of which strained the health system. The drought was especially challenging for mothers and children. We aimed to identify salient factors that can improve health system resilience by exploring the successes and challenges experienced by a community-based health system during the drought response.MethodsWe collected data via key informant interviews and focus group discussions to capture diverse perspectives across the health system (eg, international, national, district, facility, and community perspectives). Data were collected from communities in drought-affected regions of: 1) Somali, Sitti Zone, 2) Hawassa, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR), and 3) Tigray, Eastern Zone. Data were analysed using a deductive-inductive approach using thematic content analysis applied to a conceptual framework.ResultsA total of 94 participants were included (71 from the communities and 23 from other levels). Key themes included the importance of: 1) organized community groups linked to the health system, 2) an effective community health workforce within strong health systems, 3) adaptable human resource structures and service delivery models, 4) training and preparedness, and 5) strong government leadership with decentralized decision making.ConclusionsThe results of this study provide insights from across the health system into the successes and challenges of building resilience in community-based health systems in Ethiopia during the drought. As climate change exacerbates extreme weather events, further research is needed to understand the determinants of building resilience from a variety of shocks in multiple contexts, especially focusing on harnessing the power of communities as reservoirs of resilience.

Depositional environments in the White Nile Valley during the last 300,000 years

Before regulation, the White Nile contributed 83% of the low water flow to the main Nile and was responsible for maintaining the Nile as a perennial river during times of drought in Ethiopia. Two key unresolved questions relating to the White Nile are: (a) When did the White Nile first join the main Nile? (b) What type of sediment did the White Nile contribute to the main Nile? The answer to the first question has important implications for our understanding of hydro–climatic and tectonic events in the Ugandan Lake Plateau. The answer to the second question is essential for correctly interpreting the sedimentary record preserved in the Nile deep sea fan in the eastern Mediterranean. Our work has shown for the first time that the White Nile has been transporting smectite–rich sediments from the time of its probable inception over 240 ka ago and possibly since about 400 ka. Our analysis of the heavy mineral assemblages in White Nile alluvial sediments provides strong support for a source in the Lake Plateau region of Uganda. The White Nile was flowing from Uganda by at least 240 ka and very likely from about 400 ka.

Evaluating Probability Distribution Functions for the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index over Ethiopia

Drought indices are used to identify and monitor drought events. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is a widely used index based on accumulated water balance. There is, however, no broad consensus on which probability distribution is the most appropriate for water balances. This issue is investigated for Ethiopia using 125 meteorological stations spread across the country. Based on long-term series, a selection was made among the generalized extreme value, Pearson type 3, and generalized logistics (Genlog) distributions. Additionally, the effect of using actual, instead of potential, evapotranspiration and a limited amount of data (10, 15, 20, and 25 years) is explored. Genlog is found to be the best distribution for all accumulation periods. Furthermore, there is a considerable difference amongst the SPEI values estimated from the three distributions on the identification of extreme wet or extreme dry periods. Next, there are significant differences between standardized precipitation actual evapotranspiration index (SPAEI) and SPEI, signifying the importance of drought index selection for proper drought monitoring. Finally, time series of 20 or 25 years of data lead to almost similar SPEI values to those estimated using more than 30 years of data, so could potentially be used to assess drought in Ethiopia.

The role of short-term changes in cognitive capacity on economic expenditure among Kenyan agro-pastoralists.

The increased exposure of pastoralist communities in East Africa to climatic shocks has focused attention on the resilience of these communities. Although many social scientists directly or indirectly infer versions of homo-economic agents, increasing evidence in development behavioral economics, indicates that such assumptions may be misplaced. Despite on-going advances in the science concerning the effects of stress on dynamic changes in short-term cognitive capacity, there remains limited understanding of the effects of changes in cognitive capacity on economic decision making. The present research empirically evaluates the drivers of short-term changes in cognitive capacity–cognitive ability and heuristic use–and its effect on crop and livestock expenditure among predominantly poor Kenyan agro-pastoralists. Three rounds of cognition and survey data from Samburu, Kenya is analysed. The primary data was collected at the end of the 2015–16 East African drought and covers an 11-month period between October 2016 and September 2017. Dynamic panel estimation, employing maximum likelihood, is used on balanced and unbalanced data. Results indicate that fluid intelligence and heuristic use, along with literacy and stressors, affect crop expenditure. Perceptions of scarcity, relative to prior expectations, are also identified as an important determinant of short-term changes in cognitive ability. These results underscore the importance of better understanding the effects of short-term changes in cognitive capacity on economic expenditure among the poor.

A nonparametric analysis of household-level food insecurity and its determinant factors: exploratory study in Ethiopia and Nigeria

Given the fundamental importance of food to human well-being, understanding food insecurity is crucial for sustainable development. However, due to the complex nature of food insecurity, traditional linear methods of empirical analysis may mask critical relationships between food insecurity and demographic, agricultural, and environmental factors. Here we show, using two years of household-level survey data from Ethiopia and Nigeria, that nonparametric regression (“random forest”, in this study) enables enhanced insight into the factors associated with self-reported food security and household dietary diversity score. We observe nonlinearities and thresholds in the relationships between the measures of food security, livestock ownership, and climatic conditions. The threshold-based relationships suggest that policies aimed at increasing agricultural productivity (e.g., livestock holdings) may only be beneficial up to an extent. While it is intuitive that some level of diminishing returns will exist, our nonparametric analysis could be used as a first step to discern the levels to which policies may be beneficial. Additionally, our results indicate that the random forest (and perhaps nonparametric regression and classification methods more generally) may be especially well-positioned to uncover nuances in these relationships in years with suboptimal climatic conditions (such as during the 2015 drought in Ethiopia). Ultimately, we argue that nonparametric approaches, when informed by existing theory, provide an insightful complement to inform the analysis of agricultural and development policy.

Assessing the spatio-temporal variability of NDVI and VCI as indices of crops productivity in Ethiopia: a remote sensing approach

This study aims at characterizing agricultural drought in Ethiopia and understanding the effects of drought on crop yield. Monthly, seasonal and annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) values were calculated using MODIS (MOD13Q1) from the year 2003 to 2017. The relationships between NDVI, VCI, and crop yield were examined to predict the possibility of drought impacts on crop productivity. We found that VCI and NDVI data provides consistent and spatially explicit information for operational drought monitoring in Ethiopia. Results also indicated that the most extreme agricultural drought in recent years occurred in 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, and 2015. These findings also show that mild to severe droughts have a great chance of occurrence in Ethiopia. However, only severe drought has significant impacts on crops. The food crops yield data used in this study include cereals, legumes, and tubers. It was observed that cereals such as (Zea mays), teff (Eragrostis tef), haricot beans (Phaseolus vulgaris) are more sensitive to agricultural drought when compared to the tubers such as sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) and taro (Colocasia esculenta). Thus, drought preparedness programs need to pay more attention to the cultivation of these crops under severe drought conditions. Highlights NDVI and VCI patterns easily discriminate cereals and legumes when compared to tuber crops. 45% and 43% yield variability of respectively teff and maize is explained by the NDVI patterns. The studied crops (Teff, Maize, Sweet potato and Taro) are less discriminable to seasonal VCI variation. Drought preparedness strategies should encourage farmers to cultivate tubers instead of cereals. The PMARE value for Taro and sweet potato exceeded the model acceptable range.

The Impacts of El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Agriculture and Coping Strategies in Rural Communities of Ethiopia: Systematic Review Article

The principal cause of drought in Ethiopia is asserted to be the fluctuation of the global atmospheric circulation, which is triggered by Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA), occurring due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. It can make extreme weather events more likely in certain regions in Ethiopia. ENSO episodes and events, and related weather events have an impact on seasonal rainfall distribution and rainfall variability over Ethiopia. Thus, the main aim of this review was to identify and organize the major impacts of El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on agriculture and adaptation strategies of rural communities in Ethiopia. Most of the rural communities in the country depend on rain-fed agriculture, and millions of Ethiopians have lost their source of food, water, and livelihoods due to drought triggered by ENSO. The coping strategies against ENSO induced climate change are creating a collective risk analysis, and Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) at the national level. In addition, community-based coping strategies for ENSO are integrated with watershed management, livelihood diversification and land rehabilitation to better cope with erratic rainfall and drought risks in the country.

Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response

Humanitarian disasters such as Typhoon Haiyan (SE Asia, 2013) and the Horn of Africa drought (2011–2012) are examples of natural hazards that were predicted, but where forecasts were not sufficiently acted upon, leading to considerable loss of life. These events, alongside international adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, have motivated efforts to enable early action from early warnings. Through initiatives such as Forecast-based Financing (FbF) and the Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) programme, progress is being made towards the use of science and forecasts to support international humanitarian organisations and governments in taking early action and improving disaster resilience. However, many challenges remain in using forecasts systematically for preparedness and response. The research community in place through SHEAR enabled the UK government's Department for International Development to task a collaborative group of scientists to produce probabilistic real-time flood forecast and risk bulletins, aimed at humanitarian decision-makers, for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, which impacted Mozambique in 2019.The process of bulletin creation during Idai and Kenneth is reviewed and critically evaluated, including evaluation of the forecast information alongside evidence for how useful the bulletins were. In this context, this work seeks to navigate the “murky landscape” of national and international mandates, capacities, and collaborations for forecasting, early warning and anticipatory action, with the ultimate aim of finding out what can be done better in the future. Lessons learnt and future recommendations are discussed to enable better collaboration between producers and users of forecast information.

Estimate of correlation between the meteorological drought in Ethiopia and the hydrological drought in Egypt

Drought is one of the most complex natural phenomena and one of the main natural causes affecting agriculture, the economy and the environment in the world, and its impact has become evident significantly on the level of life on the globe in recent decades. It leads to droughts in different regions, so assessing the intensity of the drought period is one of the most important tools for sustainable agriculture, as drought has become a phenomenon in many parts of the world, especially in the East and North Africa region.The most important type of drought is metrological and hydrological drought, Drought indices were used to survey drought and demonstrate its performance. As a country in the world, Egypt suffers from water scarcity, especially in recent years. Therefore, the importance of studying Ethiopia as a study area comes due to the presence of the Blue Nile, which contributes about 85% of the Nile River's revenue.Metrological drought was calculated by the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), and by hydrological by the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) during the period from 1950 to 2017 based on the availability of the recorded data for meteorological stations in Ethiopia, and the streamflow for Dongola station, and then these data were evaluated using various methods, including homogeneity between the data for each station by considering the different time scales of periods 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months., As a result, There are three seasons of rain in Ethiopia, Kiremt is the main rainy season from June to September, Bega is the dry season from October to January, Belg is the lowest rainy season from February to May and Ethiopia characterized by four precipitation regimes, and we found a correlation between the meteorological index (SPI) for five stations in Ethiopia, and the hydrological index (SDI) for Dongola.Keywords: Ethiopia; Dongola; Meteorological drought; Hydrological drought.

Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought

As rural African communities experience more frequent and extreme droughts, it is increasingly important that water supplies are climate resilient. Using a unique temporal dataset we explore rural water supply (n = 5196) performance during the 2015–16 drought in Ethiopia. Mean functionality ranged from 60% for motorised boreholes to 75% for hand-pumped boreholes. Real-time monitoring and responsive operation and maintenance led to rapid increases in functionality of hand-pumped and, to a lesser extent, motorised boreholes. Increased demand was placed on motorised boreholes in lowland areas as springs, hand-dug-wells and open sources failed. Most users travelled >1 h to access motorised boreholes but <30 min, increasing to 30-60 mins, for hand-pumped boreholes. Boreholes accessing deep (>30 m) groundwater performed best during the drought. Prioritising access to groundwater via multiple improved sources and a portfolio of technologies, such as hand-pumped and motorised boreholes, supported by responsive and proactive operation and maintenance, increases rural water supply resilience.

Recent ENSO influence on East African drought during rainy seasons through the synergistic use of satellite and reanalysis data

This study identified a relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East African drought during the two rainy seasons (i.e., short rain from October to December and long rain from March to May). ENSO shows a positive relationship with the East African short rain during the entire period analyzed (1949–2016). Meanwhile, a statistically significant relationship between ENSO and East African long rain appears only in a recent period (2000–2016), which is unprecedented in the past 50 years before the 2000s. The strengthened interannual relationship between ENSO and East African long rain is associated with distinguished Indian Ocean Walker cell in boreal spring, implying that their relationship could be affected by either multidecadal natural variability or anthropogenic forcing. Various satellite-based drought indices which consider vegetation health, land surface temperature, evapotranspiration, and precipitation with 1 km spatial resolution showed a robust relationship between ENSO and East African drought in the recent period (2000–2016) during the both rainy seasons. In the case studies of June 2005, August 2007, and November 2010, the anomalous wet condition in East Africa during the mature phase of El Nino became dry as La Nina developed in the following year, thereby a lagged response was observed in vegetation-related drought indices and long-term meteorological drought indices. Satellite-based high resolution (1 km) drought indices often showed heterogeneous drought patterns under the same drought condition from reanalysis data at coarse resolution (2.5°), indicating the importance of spatiotemporally continuous high-resolution measurements for drought monitoring in East Africa. Consequently, the synergetic use of high resolution satellite observations and reanalysis data is crucial to provide the effective monitoring, assessment, and seasonal outlook of East African drought.

Evaluation of improved mung bean (Vigna radiata L.) varieties for yield in the moisture stress conditions of Abergelle Areas, Northern Ethiopia

Mung bean (Vigna radiata L.) also known as green gram, golden gram, Oregon peas and chokoro (Swahili), is an economically important short duration legume crop for drought prone/ moisture stressed areas. Due to drought escape/early maturity in case of terminal drought in Ethiopia, improvement of grain yield of Mung bean (Vigna radiata L.) is the main objective to avoid food insecurity. A field experiment was carried out during the 2016 and 2017 main cropping seasons using a randomized complete block design with three replications in order to evaluate eight characteristics viz., days to 50% flowering, seed filling period, 90% physiological maturity, plant height, number of pod per plant, number of seeds per pod, seed yield and thousand seed weight for six mung bean varieties under rain-fed conditions at Abergelle Agricultural Research Center on station in Ethiopia. Analysis of variance showed that, differences varietal was observed for traits studied (p≤ 0.05) except number of pods per plant. The variety Rasa had better performance than the other varieties with the highest seed yield (1776 kg ha-1), while the lowest seed yield was obtained from local Sheraro (889 kg ha-1). Thus, Rasa is recommended as promising variety to the farmers of Abergelle areas.

Spatio–temporal Assessment of Drought in Ethiopia and the Impact of Recent Intense Droughts

The recent droughts that have occurred in different parts of Ethiopia are generally linked to fluctuations in atmospheric and ocean circulations. Understanding these large-scale phenomena that play a crucial role in vegetation productivity in Ethiopia is important. In view of this, several techniques and datasets were analyzed to study the spatio–temporal variability of vegetation in response to a changing climate. In this study, 18 years (2001–2018) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroscopy (MODIS) Terra/Aqua, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LST), Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) daily precipitation, and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) soil moisture datasets were processed. Pixel-based Mann–Kendall trend analysis and the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) were used to assess the drought patterns during the cropping season. Results indicate that the central highlands and northwestern part of Ethiopia, which have land cover dominated by cropland, had experienced decreasing precipitation and NDVI trends. About 52.8% of the pixels showed a decreasing precipitation trend, of which the significant decreasing trends focused on the central and low land areas. Also, 41.67% of the pixels showed a decreasing NDVI trend, especially in major parts of the northwestern region of Ethiopia. Based on the trend test and VCI analysis, significant countrywide droughts occurred during the El Niño 2009 and 2015 years. Furthermore, the Pearson correlation coefficient analysis assures that the low NDVI was mainly attributed to the low precipitation and water availability in the soils. This study provides valuable information in identifying the locations with the potential concern of drought and planning for immediate action of relief measures. Furthermore, this paper presents the results of the first attempt to apply a recently developed index, the Normalized Difference Latent Heat Index (NDLI), to monitor drought conditions. The results show that the NDLI has a high correlation with NDVI (r = 0.96), precipitation (r = 0.81), soil moisture (r = 0.73), and LST (r = −0.67). NDLI successfully captures the historical droughts and shows a notable correlation with the climatic variables. The analysis shows that using the radiances of green, red, and short wave infrared (SWIR), a simplified crop monitoring model with satisfactory accuracy and easiness can be developed.

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE VARIOUS MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO COMBAT DESERTIFICATION IN JIBIA AND KAITA LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS OF KATSINA STATE

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE VARIOUS MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO COMBAT DESERTIFICATION IN JIBIA AND KAITA LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS OF KATSINA STATE

Ecosystem Productivity and Water Stress in Tropical East Africa: A Case Study of the 2010–2011 Drought

Characterizing the spatiotemporal patterns of ecosystem responses to drought is important in understanding the impact of water stress on tropical ecosystems and projecting future land cover transitions in the East African tropics. Through the analysis of satellite measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil moisture, rainfall, and reanalysis data, here we characterize the 2010–2011 drought in tropical East Africa. The 2010–2011 drought included the consecutive failure of rainy seasons in October–November–December 2010 and March–April–May 2011 and extended further east and south compared with previous regional droughts. During 2010–2011, SIF, a proxy of ecosystem productivity, showed a concomitant decline (~32% lower gross primary productivity, or GPP, based on an empirical SIF–GPP relationship, as compared to the long-term average) with water stress, expressed by lower precipitation and soil moisture. Both SIF and NDVI showed a negative response to drought, and SIF captured the response to soil moisture with a lag of 16 days, even if it had lower spatial resolution and much smaller energy compared with NDVI, suggesting that SIF can also serve as an early indicator of drought in the future. This work demonstrates the unique characteristics of the 2010–2011 East African drought and the ability of SIF and NDVI to track the levels of water stress during the drought.