Falciparum Malaria Transmission Research Articles

Could Less Be More? Accounting for Fractional-Dose Regimens and Different Number of Vaccine Doses When Measuring the Impact of the RTS,S/AS01E Malaria Vaccine.

The RTS,S/AS01E (RTS,S) malaria vaccine is recommended for children in malaria endemic areas. This phase 2b trial evaluates RTS,S fractional- and full-dose regimens in Ghana and Kenya. In total, 1500 children aged 5-17 months were randomized (1:1:1:1:1) to receive RTS,S or rabies control vaccine. RTS,S groups received 2 full RTS,S doses at months 0 and 1 and either full (groups R012-20, R012-14-26) or fractional doses (one-fifth; groups Fx012-14-26, Fx017-20-32). At month 32 post-dose 1, vaccine efficacy against clinical malaria (all episodes) ranged from 38% (R012-20; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 24%-49%) to 53% (R012-14-26; 95% CI: 42%-62%). Vaccine impact (cumulative number of cases averted/1000 children vaccinated) was 1344 (R012-20), 2450 (R012-14-26), 2273 (Fx012-14-26), and 2112 (Fx017-20-32). To account for differences in vaccine volume (fractional vs full dose; post hoc analysis), we estimated cases averted/1000 RTS,S full-dose equivalents: 336 (R012-20), 490 (R012-14-26), 874 (Fx012-14-26), and 880 (Fx017-20-32). Vaccine efficacy was similar across RTS,S groups. Vaccine impact accounting for full-dose equivalence suggests that using fractional-dose regimens could be a viable dose-sparing strategy. If maintained through trial end, these observations underscore the means to reduce cost per regimen thus maximizing impact and optimizing supply. NCT03276962 (ClinicalTrials.gov).

Factors affecting haemoglobin dynamics in African children with acute uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria treated with single low-dose primaquine or placebo

BackgroundSingle low-dose primaquine (SLDPQ) effectively blocks the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but anxiety remains regarding its haemolytic potential in patients with glucose-6-phopshate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency. We, therefore, examined the independent effects of several factors on haemoglobin (Hb) dynamics in falciparum-infected children with a particular interest in SLDPQ and G6PD status.MethodsThis randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, safety trial was conducted in Congolese and Ugandan children aged 6 months–11 years with acute uncomplicated P. falciparum and day (D) 0 Hbs ≥ 6 g/dL who were treated with age-dosed SLDPQ/placebo and weight-dosed artemether lumefantrine (AL) or dihydroartemisinin piperaquine (DHAPP). Genotyping defined G6PD (G6PD c.202T allele), haemoglobin S (HbS), and α-thalassaemia status.Multivariable linear and logistic regression assessed factor independence for continuous Hb parameters and Hb recovery (D42 Hb > D0 Hb), respectively.ResultsOne thousand one hundred thirty-seven children, whose median age was 5 years, were randomised to receive: AL + SLDPQ (n = 286), AL + placebo (286), DHAPP + SLDPQ (283), and DHAPP + placebo (282). By G6PD status, 284 were G6PD deficient (239 hemizygous males, 45 homozygous females), 119 were heterozygous females, 418 and 299 were normal males and females, respectively, and 17 were of unknown status.The mean D0 Hb was 10.6 (SD 1.6) g/dL and was lower in younger children with longer illnesses, lower mid-upper arm circumferences, splenomegaly, and α-thalassaemia trait, who were either G6PDd or heterozygous females. The initial fractional fall in Hb was greater in younger children with higher D0 Hbs and D0 parasitaemias and longer illnesses but less in sickle cell trait. Older G6PDd children with lower starting Hbs and greater factional falls were more likely to achieve Hb recovery, whilst lower D42 Hb concentrations were associated with younger G6PD normal children with lower fractional falls, sickle cell disease, α-thalassaemia silent carrier and trait, and late treatment failures. Ten blood transfusions were given in the first week (5 SLDPQ, 5 placebo).ConclusionsIn these falciparum-infected African children, posttreatment Hb changes were unaffected by SLDPQ, and G6PDd patients had favourable posttreatment Hb changes and a higher probability of Hb recovery. These reassuring findings support SLDPQ deployment without G6PD screening in Africa.Trial registrationThe trial is registered at ISRCTN 11594437.

Novel bioinformatic methods and machine learning approaches reveal candidate biomarkers of the intensity and timing of past exposure to Plasmodium falciparum.

Accurately quantifying the burden of malaria over time is an important goal of malaria surveillance efforts and can enable effective targeting and evaluation of interventions. Malaria surveillance methods capture active or recent infections which poses several challenges to achieving malaria surveillance goals. In high transmission settings, asymptomatic infections are common and therefore accurate measurement of malaria burden demands active surveillance; in low transmission regions where infections are rare accurate surveillance requires sampling large subsets of the population; and in any context monitoring malaria burden over time necessitates serial sampling. Antibody responses to Plasmodium falciparum parasites persist after infection and therefore measuring antibodies has the potential to overcome several of the current obstacles to accurate malaria surveillance. Identifying which antibody responses are markers of the timing and intensity of past exposure to P. falciparum remains challenging, particularly among adults who tend to be re-exposed multiple times over the course of their lifetime and therefore have similarly high antibody responses to many Plasmodium antigens. A previous analysis of 479 serum samples from individuals in three regions in southern Africa with different historical levels of P. falciparum malaria transmission (high, intermediate, and low) revealed regional differences in antibody responses to P. falciparum antigens among children under 5 years of age. Using a novel bioinformatic pipeline optimized for protein microarrays that minimizes between-sample technical variation, we used antibody responses to Plasmodium antigens as predictors in random forest models to classify samples from adults into these three regions of differing historical malaria transmission with high accuracy (AUC = 0.99). Many of the most important antigens for classification in these models do not overlap with previously published results and are therefore novel candidate markers for the timing and intensity of past exposure to P. falciparum. Measuring antibody responses to these antigens could lead to improved malaria surveillance.

Views and Suppositions About Malarial Infections in Cancer Development and Progression

Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is an aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The prevalence of BL is ten-fold higher in areas with stable transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria, where it is the most common childhood cancer, and is referred to as endemic BL (eBL). In addition to its association with exposure to P. falciparum infection, eBL is strongly associated with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection (>90%). This is in contrast to BL as it occurs outside P. falciparum-endemic areas (sporadic BL), where only a minority of the tumors are EBV-positive. Although the striking geographical overlap in the distribution of eBL and P. falciparum was noted shortly after the first detailed description of eBL in 1958, the molecular details of the interaction between malaria and eBL remain unresolved. It is furthermore unexplained why exposure to P. falciparum appears to be essentially a prerequisite to the development of eBL, whereas other types of malaria parasites that infect humans have no impact. 1 Researchers have found that the damage to DNA caused by malaria parasite in cells increases the risk of those cells turning into cancerous cells. Burkitt's lymphoma – a B cell cancer – has previously been epidemiologically linked with malaria endemic areas. Burkitt lymphoma (BL) was first described by Denis Burkitt in the 1950s. While working in Uganda, he observed numerous children with large jaw tumors (usually observed in endemic BL), subsequently noting that the geographical distribution of these tumors tended to correspond to that of malaria. BL has been associated with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection; however, given that EBV is found ubiquitously, EBV infection alone does not explain the burden of BL in Africa but rather, is hypothesized to act as a co-factor for BL along with malaria infection. 2 In our article we try to find the correlation between plasmodium falciparum infection and rising rate of endemic Burkitt lymphoma in African countries from the point of view of karyogamic theory. On the basis of experimental data and information in the literature, one possible basis for the initial tumor cell is a hybrid originated by means of the fusion of two normal somatic cells, there can be created perforations of the plasma membrane. Pores of some definite sizes can lead to the fusion of cells. In the first stage of carcinogenesis(initiation), as a result of a fusion of nuclei, a so-called precancerous sinkaryons with a tetraploid set of chromosomes may be created. Such types of cells can exist in the tissue for a long time. At the stage of promotion they can be transformed into full tumor cells under any perfect carcinogens or promoters. 3

Cost of introducing and delivering malaria vaccine (RTS,S/AS01E) in areas of seasonal malaria transmission, Mali and Burkina Faso

BackgroundThe WHO recommends use of the RTS,S/AS01E (RTS,S) malaria vaccine for young children living in areas of moderate to high Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission and suggests countries consider seasonal vaccination...

Seasonal targeting of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a complementary tool but sustained funding is required

In October 2021, WHO recommended the RTS,S/AS01 (RTS,S) malaria vaccine for widespread use for children living in regions with moderate to high Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission.1 The recommendation received a positive reception worldwide as, despite being both preventable and treatable, malaria continues to affect the poorest nations, hampering population health, economic growth, and social wellbeing. The vaccine itself is not a silver bullet for malaria burden, offering only a 30% reduction in severe malaria disease when implemented in routine settings.

Corrigendum: Frequency-dependent competition between strains imparts persistence to perturbations in a model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission

Corrigendum: Frequency-dependent competition between strains imparts persistence to perturbations in a model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission

Estimation of Plasmodium falciparum transmission using multiepitope chimeric antigen in the postelimination phase in Yunnan, China.

The continuous monitoring of malaria transmission intensity is still required to maintain elimination status after reaching the malaria elimination stage. In this study, serological surveillance with multiepitope artificial antigen was used to assess the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum in Yunnan, China, where malaria elimination has just been achieved, to provide data to support malaria control in the postelimination period. Samples were collected in three border counties and one inland county in Yunnan Province in 2016 using a stratified whole-group sampling method. Fingerstick blood was collected from all participants, and antibodies to Malaria Random Constructed Antigen-1 (M. RCAg-1) were detected by indirect ELISA. The transmission intensity of P. falciparum malaria was estimated using a catalytic conversion model based on the maximum likelihood of generating a community seroconversion rate (SCR). A total of 5566 samples were collected. There was no statistically significant difference in antibody level between the inland county and the nonendemic area, but the antibody level in border counties was significantly higher than those in the inland county and the nonendemic control area. No seropositive cases were found in Yanjin County, and the seropositivity rate increased with age in the three border counties. The highest intensity of P. falciparum malaria transmission was in Zhenkang County (SCR=0.0030, CI: 0.0029, 0.0031), followed by Gengma County (SCR=0.0013, CI: 0.0012, 0.0015) and Yingjiang County (SCR=0.00088, CI: 0.00083, 0.00090). The transmission intensity of P. falciparum malaria in Yunnan Province has obviously decreased in recent years, but for the border areas where malaria has just been eliminated, the transmission intensity will not immediately drop to zero, and it still needs to be monitored for a period of time to maintain malaria elimination status.

Ethical considerations for introducing RTS,S/AS01 in countries with moderate to high Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission

On Oct 6, 2021, WHO recommended the widespread use of the RTS,S/ASO1 malaria vaccine (Mosquirix; GlaxoSmithKline, Brentford, UK) among children in areas with moderate to high Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission.1 This recommendation was made despite RTS,S showing only a 30% reduction in preventing deadly severe malaria, falling short of the WHO effectiveness threshold of 75%, and in light of promising vaccines—such as the R21/Matrix-M—under clinical development.2–4

Pyronaridine–artesunate or dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine combined with single low-dose primaquine to prevent Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Ouélessébougou, Mali: a four-arm, single-blind, phase 2/3, randomised trial

SummaryBackgroundPyronaridine–artesunate is the most recently licensed artemisinin-based combination therapy. WHO has recommended that a single low dose of primaquine could be added to artemisinin-based combination therapies to reduce Plasmodium falciparum transmission in areas aiming for elimination of malaria or areas facing artemisinin resistance. We aimed to determine the efficacy of pyronaridine–artesunate and dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine with and without single low-dose primaquine for reducing gametocyte density and transmission to mosquitoes.MethodsWe conducted a four-arm, single-blind, phase 2/3, randomised trial at the Ouélessébougou Clinical Research Unit of the Malaria Research and Training Centre of the University of Bamako (Bamako, Mali). Participants were aged 5–50 years, with asymptomatic P falciparum malaria mono-infection and gametocyte carriage on microscopy, haemoglobin density of 9·5 g/dL or higher, bodyweight less than 80 kg, and no use of antimalarial drugs over the past week. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to one of four treatment groups: pyronaridine–artesunate, pyronaridine–artesunate plus primaquine, dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine, or dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine plus primaquine. Treatment allocation was concealed to all study staff other than the trial pharmacist and treating physician. Dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine and pyronaridine–artesunate were administered as per manufacturer guidelines over 3 days; primaquine was administered as a single dose in oral solution according to bodyweight (0·25 mg/kg; in 1 kg bands). The primary endpoint was percentage reduction in mosquito infection rate (percentage of mosquitoes surviving to dissection that were infected with P falciparum) at 48 h after treatment compared with baseline (before treatment) in all treatment groups. Data were analysed per protocol. This trial is now complete, and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04049916.FindingsBetween Sept 10 and Nov 19, 2019, 1044 patients were assessed for eligibility and 100 were enrolled and randomly assigned to one of the four treatment groups (n=25 per group). Before treatment, 66 (66%) of 100 participants were infectious to mosquitoes, with a median of 15·8% (IQR 5·4–31·9) of mosquitoes becoming infected. In individuals who were infectious before treatment, the median percentage reduction in mosquito infection rate 48 h after treatment was 100·0% (IQR 100·0 to 100·0) for individuals treated with pyronaridine–artesunate plus primaquine (n=18; p<0·0001) and dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine plus primaquine (n=15; p=0·0001), compared with −8·7% (−54·8 to 93·2) with pyronaridine–artesunate (n=17; p=0·88) and 50·4% (13·8 to 70·9) with dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine (n=16; p=0·13). There were no serious adverse events, and there were no significant differences between treatment groups at any point in the frequency of any adverse events (Fisher's exact test p=0·96) or adverse events related to study drugs (p=0·64). The most common adverse events were headaches (40 events in 32 [32%] of 100 participants), rhinitis (31 events in 30 [30%]), and respiratory infection (20 events in 20 [20%]).InterpretationThese data support the use of single low-dose primaquine as an effective supplement to dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine and pyronaridine–artesunate for blocking P falciparum transmission. The new pyronaridine–artesunate plus single low-dose primaquine combination is of immediate relevance to regions in which the containment of partial artemisinin and partner-drug resistance is a growing concern and in regions aiming to eliminate malaria.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.TranslationsFor the French, Spanish and Swahilil translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Safety monitoring experience of single-low dose primaquine co-administered with artemether\u2013lumefantrine among providers and patients in routine healthcare practice: a qualitative study in Eastern Tanzania

BackgroundPrimaquine is a gametocytocidal drug recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) in a single-low dose combined with artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for the treatment and prevention of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission. Safety monitoring concerns and the lack of a universal validated and approved primaquine pharmacovigilance tool is a challenge for a national rollout in many countries. This study aimed to explore the acceptance, reliability and perceived effectiveness of the primaquine roll out monitoring pharmacovigilance tool (PROMPT).MethodsThis study was conducted in three dispensaries in the Coastal region of Eastern Tanzania. The study held six in-depth interviews with healthcare providers and six participatory focus group discussions with malaria patients (3) and parents/guardians of sick children (3). Participants were purposively sampled. Thematic analysis was conducted with the aid of NVivo qualitative analysis software.ResultsThe respondents’ general acceptance and perceived effectiveness of the single-low dose primaquine and PROMPT was good. Screening procedure for treatment eligibility and explaining to patients about the possible adverse events was considered very useful for safety reasons. Crushing and dissolving of primaquine tablet to get the appropriate dose, particularly in children, was reported by all providers to be challenging. Transport costs and poor access to the health facility were the main reasons for a patient failing to return to the clinic for a scheduled follow-up visit. Treatment was perceived to be safe by both providers and patients and reported no case of a severe adverse event. Some providers were concerned with the haemoglobin drop observed on day 7.ConclusionSingle-low dose primaquine was perceived to be safe and acceptable among providers and patients. PROMPT demonstrated to be a reliable and user-friendly tool among providers. Further validation of the tool by involving the National Malaria Control Programme is pivotal to addressing key challenges and facilitating primaquine adoption in the national policy.

The association between gold mining and malaria in Guyana: a statistical inference and time-series analysis

SummaryBackgroundGuyana reported a significant rise in malaria between 2008 and 2014. As there was no evidence of impairment of national malaria control strategies, public health authorities attributed the surge to a temporal increase in gold mining activity in forested regions. However, systematic analysis of this association is lacking because of the difficulties associated with collecting reliable data for both malaria and mining. We aimed to investigate the association between the international gold price and Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Guyana between 2007 and 2019. We also aimed to evaluate the association between P falciparum cases and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern, which has previously been suggested as a major driver of malaria.MethodsWe used national malaria surveillance data from Guyana to estimate the correlation over time between the international gold price and reported P falciparum infections in individuals who were likely to be involved in mining activities (ie, men and boys aged between 15 and 50 years who were living in mining regions) for each month between 2007 and 2019. We compared the estimates with those obtained from individuals who were unlikely to be directly involved in mining activities (ie, women, children aged 12 years and younger, and adults aged over 70 years) and estimates obtained from individuals living in non-mining regions. We also evaluated the correlation between P falciparum infections and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern in the same subpopulations and time period. Lastly, we evaluated the performance of a statistical model formulated to estimate P falciparum infections in real time using the international gold price as the predictor variable.FindingsThe proportion of P falciparum malaria cases in temporary residents, which was used as a proxy for circulating individuals involved in gold mining, was highest during the years of peak gold price (ie, between 2008 and 2014). Cases of malaria in all demographic groups showed a strong positive correlation with the gold price, but only in regions with mining camps (0·88 [95% CI 0·84–0·89] for boys and men aged between 15 and 50 years and 0·80 [0·73–0·85] for the aggregated population of women, children aged 12 years and younger, and adults older than 70 years). The highest correlation occurred earlier in men and boys aged between 15 and 50 years, the demographic most likely to be miners, suggesting that transmission in mining camps is followed by infections in the community. On the basis of these findings, we were able to reliably forecast P falciparum malaria trends using only the gold price as the predictor variable. A 1% increase in gold price was associated with a 2·13% increase in P falciparum infections after 1 month in the mining populations, and with a 1·63% increase after 2 months in the non-mining populations. Lastly, La Niña climatic events showed an additional, smaller positive correlation with malaria transmission.InterpretationOur analysis provides evidence that the P falciparum malaria surge observed in Guyana between 2008 and 2014 was likely to have been driven mainly by an increase in gold mining, while climate factors might have contributed synergistically. We propose that the international gold price over time is a useful indicator of malaria trends. We conclude that the feasibility of malaria elimination in Guyana, and in other areas in the Amazon where malaria and gold mining overlap, should be evaluated against the challenges posed by rapidly rising gold prices.FundingRamón Areces Foundation, National Institutes of Health, and National Institute of General Medical Sciences.

Development of Cooperative Primer-Based Real-Time PCR Assays for the Detection of Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium ovale

Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium ovale are increasingly gaining public health attention as the global transmission of falciparum malaria is decreasing. However, the absence of reliable Plasmodium species-specific detection tools has hampered accurate diagnosis of these minor Plasmodium species. In this study, SYBR Green–based real-time PCR assays were developed for the detection of P. malariae and P. ovale using cooperative primers that significantly limit the formation and propagation of primers-dimers. Both the P. malariae and P. ovale cooperative primer-based assays had at least 10-fold lower detection limit compared with the corresponding conventional primer-based assays. More important, the cooperative primer-based assays were evaluated in a cross-sectional study using 560 samples obtained from two health facilities in Ghana. The prevalence rates of P. malariae and P. ovale among the combined study population were 18.6% (104/560) and 5.5% (31/560), respectively. Among the Plasmodium-positive cases, P. malariae and P. ovale mono-infections were 3.6% (18/499) and 1.0% (5/499), respectively, with the remaining being co-infections with Plasmodium falciparum. The study demonstrates the public health importance of including detection tools with lower detection limits in routine diagnosis and surveillance of nonfalciparum species. This will be necessary for comprehensively assessing the effectiveness of malaria interventions and control measures aimed toward global malaria elimination.

Investment case for malaria elimination in South Africa: a financing model for resource mobilization to accelerate regional malaria elimination

BackgroundMalaria continues to be a public health problem in South Africa. While the disease is mainly confined to three of the nine provinces, most local transmissions occur because of importation of cases from neighbouring countries. The government of South Africa has reiterated its commitment to eliminate malaria within its borders. To support the achievement of this goal, this study presents a cost–benefit analysis of malaria elimination in South Africa through simulating different scenarios aimed at achieving malaria elimination within a 10-year period.MethodsA dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of malaria elimination in South Africa between 2018 and 2030. The model simulated a range of malaria interventions and estimated their impact on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria between 2018 and 2030 in the three endemic provinces of Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal. Local financial, economic, and epidemiological data were used to calibrate the transmission model.ResultsBased on the three primary simulated scenarios: Business as Usual, Accelerate and Source Reduction, the total economic burden was estimated as follows: for the Business as Usual scenario, the total economic burden of malaria in South Africa was R 3.69 billion (USD 223.3 million) over an 11-year period (2018–2029). The economic burden of malaria was estimated at R4.88 billion (USD 295.5 million) and R6.34 billion (~ USD 384 million) for the Accelerate and Source Reduction scenarios, respectively. Costs and benefits are presented in midyear 2020 values. Malaria elimination was predicted to occur in all three provinces if the Source Reduction strategy was adopted to help reduce malaria rates in southern Mozambique. This could be achieved by limiting annual local incidence in South Africa to less than 1 indigenous case with a prediction of this goal being achieved by the year 2026.ConclusionsMalaria elimination in South Africa is feasible and economically worthwhile with a guaranteed positive return on investment (ROI). Findings of this study show that through securing funding for the proposed malaria interventions in the endemic areas of South Africa and neighbouring Mozambique, national elimination could be within reach in an 8-year period.

CRISPR/Cas9-engineered inducible gametocyte producer lines as a valuable tool for Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission research

The malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum replicates inside erythrocytes in the blood of infected humans. During each replication cycle, a small proportion of parasites commits to sexual development and differentiates into gametocytes, which are essential for parasite transmission via the mosquito vector. Detailed molecular investigation of gametocyte biology and transmission has been hampered by difficulties in generating large numbers of these highly specialised cells. Here, we engineer P. falciparum NF54 inducible gametocyte producer (iGP) lines for the routine mass production of synchronous gametocytes via conditional overexpression of the sexual commitment factor GDV1. NF54/iGP lines consistently achieve sexual commitment rates of 75% and produce viable gametocytes that are transmissible by mosquitoes. We also demonstrate that further genetic engineering of NF54/iGP parasites is a valuable tool for the targeted exploration of gametocyte biology. In summary, we believe the iGP approach developed here will greatly expedite basic and applied malaria transmission stage research.

An antigenic diversification threshold for falciparum malaria transmission at high endemicity.

In malaria and several other important infectious diseases, high prevalence occurs concomitantly with incomplete immunity. This apparent paradox poses major challenges to malaria elimination in highly endemic regions, where asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections are present across all age classes creating a large reservoir that maintains transmission. This reservoir is in turn enabled by extreme antigenic diversity of the parasite and turnover of new variants. We present here the concept of a threshold in local pathogen diversification that defines a sharp transition in transmission intensity below which new antigen-encoding genes generated by either recombination or migration cannot establish. Transmission still occurs below this threshold, but diversity of these genes can neither accumulate nor recover from interventions that further reduce it. An analytical expectation for this threshold is derived and compared to numerical results from a stochastic individual-based model of malaria transmission that incorporates the major antigen-encoding multigene family known as var. This threshold corresponds to an “innovation” number we call Rdiv; it is different from, and complementary to, the one defined by the classic basic reproductive number of infectious diseases, R0, which does not readily is better apply under large and dynamic strain diversity. This new threshold concept can be exploited for effective malaria control and applied more broadly to other pathogens with large multilocus antigenic diversity.

Rising Gold Prices Threaten the Feasibility of Malaria Elimination in Guyana

Guyana reported a significant rise in malaria nationwide between 2008-2014. The surge was attributed by public health authorities to a temporal increase in gold mining activity in forested regions, without evidence of impairment of national control strategies. However, systematic analysis of the association remains lacking due to the remoteness of both malaria and mining, and collection of reliable data becomes exceptionally difficult. To overcome this challenge, we investigated the relation between international gold price and falciparum malaria transmission in Guyana between 2007-2019, using statistical inference and time series analysis. We also evaluated the association between falciparum cases and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation pattern, previously suggested as a major malaria driver. The proportion of falciparum malaria cases among temporary residents was highest during the years of peak gold price, consistent with circulation of individuals related to mining activity. Further, cases among all demographics showed a strong positive correlation with gold price but only in regions with mining camps. The highest cross-correlation occurred earlier among individuals representative of mining laborers, suggesting that transmission in mining camps is followed by infections in the community. Upon these findings, we were able to reliably forecast falciparum malaria trends using only gold price as the predictor variable. Last, the La Nina climatic events showed an additional, smaller positive correlation with malaria transmission. Our analyses evidence that the 2008-2014 falciparum malaria surge observed in Guyana was mainly driven by an increase in gold mining, while climate factors might have contributed synergistically. We propose that international gold price is a useful indicator of future cases of malaria. We conclude that the feasibility of malaria elimination in Guyana and in other areas in the Amazonian where malaria and gold mining overlap should be evaluated against the challenges posed by rapidly rising gold prices. Funding: PMD was supported by the Ramon Areces Foundation fellowship. PMD and COB were supported by NIH/NIGMS, grant number 5R35GM124715-02. Declaration of Interest: None to declare. Ethical Approval: Ministry of Public Health, Guyana granted access to non-identifiable surveillance data obtained from the Malaria Program /Vector Control Services under Institutional Review Board exemption. Further, Institutional Review Board exemption was obtained from Harvard School of Public Health (Boston, US), Human Research Protection Program, Protocol number IRB18-1638.

Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study.

The RTS,S/AS01 vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection completed phase III trials in 2014 and demonstrated efficacy against clinical malaria of approximately 36% over 4 years for a 4-dose schedule in children aged 5-17 months. Pilot vaccine implementation has recently begun in 3 African countries. If the pilots demonstrate both a positive health impact and resolve remaining safety concerns, wider roll-out could be recommended from 2021 onwards. Vaccine demand may, however, outstrip initial supply. We sought to identify where vaccine introduction should be prioritised to maximise public health impact under a range of supply constraints using mathematical modelling. Using a mathematical model of P. falciparum malaria transmission and RTS,S vaccine impact, we estimated the clinical cases and deaths averted in children aged 0-5 years in sub-Saharan Africa under 2 scenarios for vaccine coverage (100% and realistic) and 2 scenarios for other interventions (current coverage and World Health Organization [WHO] Global Technical Strategy targets). We used a prioritisation algorithm to identify potential allocative efficiency gains from prioritising vaccine allocation among countries or administrative units to maximise cases or deaths averted. If malaria burden at introduction is similar to current levels-assuming realistic vaccine coverage and country-level prioritisation in areas with parasite prevalence >10%-we estimate that 4.3 million malaria cases (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.8-6.8 million) and 22,000 deaths (95% CrI 11,000-35,000) in children younger than 5 years could be averted annually at a dose constraint of 30 million. This decreases to 3.0 million cases (95% CrI 2.0-4.7 million) and 14,000 deaths (95% CrI 7,000-23,000) at a dose constraint of 20 million, and increases to 6.6 million cases (95% CrI 4.2-10.8 million) and 38,000 deaths (95% CrI 18,000-61,000) at a dose constraint of 60 million. At 100% vaccine coverage, these impact estimates increase to 5.2 million cases (95% CrI 3.5-8.2 million) and 27,000 deaths (95% CrI 14,000-43,000), 3.9 million cases (95% CrI 2.7-6.0 million) and 19,000 deaths (95% CrI 10,000-30,000), and 10.0 million cases (95% CrI 6.7-15.7 million) and 51,000 deaths (95% CrI 25,000-82,000), respectively. Under realistic vaccine coverage, if the vaccine is prioritised sub-nationally, 5.3 million cases (95% CrI 3.5-8.2 million) and 24,000 deaths (95% CrI 12,000-38,000) could be averted at a dose constraint of 30 million. Furthermore, sub-national prioritisation would allow introduction in almost double the number of countries compared to national prioritisation (21 versus 11). If vaccine introduction is prioritised in the 3 pilot countries (Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi), health impact would be reduced, but this effect becomes less substantial (change of <5%) if 50 million or more doses are available. We did not account for within-country variation in vaccine coverage, and the optimisation was based on a single outcome measure, therefore this study should be used to understand overall trends rather than guide country-specific allocation. These results suggest that the impact of constraints in vaccine supply on the public health impact of the RTS,S malaria vaccine could be reduced by introducing the vaccine at the sub-national level and prioritising countries with the highest malaria incidence.

Estimating the risk of declining funding for malaria in Ghana: the case for continued investment in the malaria response

BackgroundGhana has made impressive progress against malaria, decreasing mortality and morbidity by over 50% between 2005 and 2015. These gains have been facilitated in part, due to increased financial commitment from government and donors. Total resources for malaria increased from less than USD 25 million in 2006 to over USD 100 million in 2011. However, the country still faces a high burden of disease and is at risk of declining external financing due to its strong economic growth and the consequential donor requirements for increased government contributions. The resulting financial gap will need to be met domestically. The purpose of this study was to provide economic evidence of the potential risks of withdrawing financing to shape an advocacy strategy for resource mobilization.MethodsA compartmental transmission model was developed to estimate the impact of a range of malaria interventions on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria between 2018 and 2030. The model projected scenarios of common interventions that allowed the attainment of elimination and those that predicted transmission if interventions were withheld. The outputs of this model were used to generate costs and economic benefits of each option.ResultsElimination was predicted using the package of interventions outlined in the national strategy, particularly increased net usage and improved case management. Malaria elimination in Ghana is predicted to cost USD 961 million between 2020 and 2029. Compared to the baseline, elimination is estimated to prevent 85.5 million cases, save 4468 lives, and avert USD 2.2 billion in health system expenditures. The economic gain was estimated at USD 32 billion in reduced health system expenditure, increased household prosperity and productivity gains. Through malaria elimination, Ghana can expect to see a 32-fold return on their investment. Reducing interventions, predicted an additional 38.2 clinical cases, 2500 deaths and additional economic losses of USD 14.1 billion.ConclusionsMalaria elimination provides robust epidemiological and economic benefits, however, sustained financing is need to accelerate the gains in Ghana. Although government financing has increased in the past decade, the amount is less than 25% of the total malaria financing. The evidence generated by this study can be used to develop a robust domestic strategy to overcome the financial barriers to achieving malaria elimination in Ghana.

Determinants of MDA impact and designing MDAs towards malaria elimination.

Malaria remains at the forefront of scientific research and global political and funding agendas. Malaria models have consistently oversimplified how mass interventions are implemented. Here, we present an individual based, spatially explicit model of P. falciparum malaria transmission that includes all the programmatic implementation details of mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns. We uncover how the impact of MDA campaigns is determined by the interaction between implementation logistics, patterns of human mobility and how transmission risk is distributed over space. Our results indicate that malaria elimination is only realistically achievable in settings with very low prevalence and can be hindered by spatial heterogeneities in risk. In highly mobile populations, accelerating MDA implementation increases likelihood of elimination; if populations are more static, deploying less teams would be cost optimal. We conclude that mass drug interventions can be an invaluable tool towards malaria elimination in low endemicity areas, specifically when paired with effective vector control.