Failure Of Theory Research Articles

Moneyball Theory in Professional Sports: An Analysis of the Football Industry and Market Failure

Abstract: Nowadays, the transfer price of athletes in the sports market is getting higher and higher. Moneyball is a theory that allows professional sports teams to spend a small amount of money but bring a huge boost. Moneyball applies the economic theory of market failure, mainly using two market failures, Information Failure and Monopsony. This article will analyze two professional sports teams that use Moneyball and market failure in football and baseball and describe the advantages and disadvantages of Moneyball and the future use of Moneyball. This paper finds that Moneyball can help many teams buy cost-effective players in today's sports player market. Moneyball can also help teams refine their recruiting analysts, and there are cases where Moneyball can be used in football. To buy the most suitable players with the guarantee that the team will not break the rules. Moneyball needs more teams to apply to determine this theory in the football world.

Conceptualising food banking in the UK from drivers of use to impacts on health and wellbeing: A systematic review and directed content analysis

Food banks have become commonplace in the UK as an emergency response to food insecurity. However, food banks are not a long-term solution to food insecurity and are often not accessed by those in need. In the context of the cost-of-living crisis, and increased food insecurity, this systematic review applied market/government failure theory, voluntary failure theory, and Radimer et al.’s (1990) domains of food insecurity to explore three important aspects relevant to the food banking experience: the drivers of food bank use; the limitations of the current food bank model; and the impacts of the food banking model for food bank clients. Empirical, peer-reviewed articles written in English with a UK food bank context and reporting relevant data to these aspects were eligible for inclusion. In total, 221 titles were identified using four databases (Web of Science, SCOPUS, PubMed, CINHAL Plus) in July 2022. The final sample of 41 articles (comprising qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods studies), were quality assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. Data were extracted and analysed through directed content analysis. Market and government failures were widely reported to drive food bank use. Insufficiency, paternalism and particularism represented key limitations of the food bank model. Negative health and psychological impacts of food bank use were prominent, yet social impacts were largely positive. Consequently, new solutions are needed to promote positive health and psychological impacts for food bank clients in the UK. The application of these findings to other high-income countries experiencing food insecurity should be determined.

Predictive analysis of tensile strength ratios in laminated bamboo composites: Unraveling the stochastic impact of ply angle variations through machine learning model

Laminated bamboo composites (LBC), made by sandwiching bamboo strips, offer promising alternatives to traditional construction materials, especially for housing. However, subjection to the continuous static loading makes these materials initiate cracks inside their various ply. This study uses classical laminate theory (CLT) to determine the strength ratio (SR) of the LBC at different ply orientations by applying Tsai-Wu and Tsai-Hill failure criteria using MATLAB. The study aims to calculate the SRs for LBCs using CLT, employing an ANN model and stochastic finite element (FE) modeling to investigate SRs of five-layered LBCs with varying ply orientations. Applying CLT, the highest SR was determined to be 1.5375 × 107 N/m for the [0°/0°/0°/0°/0°] laminate, as per both failure theories. The study reveals substantial SR variations depending on ply orientation, consistently showing higher SR predictions with the Tsai-Wu theory compared to the Tsai-Hill theory. Next, the study emphasizes the deterministic methodologies to account for the stochastic effects of ply angle on the obtained SR of LBCs. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was utilized to model 10,000 randomly generated ply angle inputs and their associated SRs. By incorporating MCS to introduce ±1% variations in ply angles and utilizing normally distributed data, this research effectively captures uncertainties associated with ply orientation. Finally, to forecast the random SR of LBC with various ply orientations, an artificial neural network (ANN) surrogate model is employed. The stochastic analysis confirms the need to quantify the associated uncertainties. The findings of this study are crucial for advancing the application of LBC in sustainable construction, providing valuable insights into their mechanical behavior under different ply orientations, considering the stochastic effect in properties.

Investigation on directional rock fracture mechanism under instantaneous expansion from the perspective of damage mechanics: A 3-D simulation

With developments in geotechnical engineering, directional rock-breaking technology has been applied in large quantities. As a novel non-explosive rock-breaking technology, Instantaneous Expansion with a Single Crack (IESC) has been studied and applied to some extent in the past few years. IESC uses expansion gas to fracture rock mass in the predetermined direction by a special energy-gathering tube, which has the advantages of high safety, strong directional ability, and easy to operate. At present, there is a lack of in-depth investigation on the directional fracture mechanism of rock under the action of IESC. According to damage mechanics, the fundamental reason for rock fracture is due to the initiation, expansion, and penetration of internal cracks. In this study, a 3-D numerical model based on the theory of progressive failure is established to study the directional rock fracture mechanism of IESC, while a Conventional Expansion (CE) model without energy-gathering tube is established for comparative research. The maximum tensile stress criterion and unified strength criterion are used to identify damage failure of the element. The evolution processes of four key parameters are simulated, the types and degrees of tensile/compressive damage of the unit are analyzed, which aims to decipher the model's directional fracture mechanism under IESC loading. The established 3-D numerical models are validated by comparing with experimental results. The research results can contribute to further understanding the directional rock fracture mechanism of IESC and provide a theoretical basis for the application of IESC in the field.

Tresca Versus Von Mises: Which Failure Criterion is More Conservative in a Probabilistic Context?

Abstract This tutorial examines the failure theories of Tresca and von Mises, both of which are crucial for designing metallic structures. Conventionally, Tresca is regarded as more conservative than von Mises from a deterministic perspective. This tutorial, however, introduces a different viewpoint, presenting a scenario where von Mises’ theory may appear more conservative when variability in the mechanical system parameters is considered. This often-overlooked aspect is not extensively addressed in standard textbooks on solid mechanics and the strength of materials. The tutorial aims to shed light on the non-negligible probability where von Mises’ criterion yields a smaller equivalent stress than Tresca, thus being more conservative. It underscores the importance of integrating probabilistic considerations into stress analyses of solids, offering valuable insights for the education of structural mechanics.

Design methodology for fused filament fabrication with failure theory: framework, database, design rule, methodology and study of case

PurposeAdditive manufacturing (AM) is growing economically because of its cost-effective design flexibility. However, it faces challenges such as interlaminar weaknesses and reduced strength because of product anisotropy. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a methodology that integrates design for additive manufacturing (AM) principles with fused filament fabrication (FFF) to address these challenges, thereby enhancing product reliability and strength.Design/methodology/approachDeveloped through case analysis and literature review, this methodology focuses on design methodology for AM (DFAM) principles applied to FFF for high mechanical performance applications. A DFAM database is constructed to identify common requirements and establish design rules, validated through a case study.FindingsExisting DFAM approaches often lack failure theory integration, especially in FFF, emphasizing mechanical characterizations over predictive failure analysis in functional parts. This methodology addresses this gap by enhancing product reliability through failure prediction in high-performance FFF applications.Originality/valueWhile some DFAM methods exist for high-performance FFF, they are often specific cases. Existing DFAM methodologies typically apply broadly across AM processes without a specific focus on failure theories in functional parts. This methodology integrates FFF with a failure theory approach to strengthen product reliability in high-performance applications.

Polyaxial failure criteria for in situ stress analysis using borehole breakouts: Review of existing methods and development of an empirical alternative

Analysis of compressive wellbore failure, or breakouts, is one of the primary methods of constraining the maximum horizontal stress in deep boreholes. To estimate stress using the observation of breakouts, one needs to measure the breakout width from image logs and use a failure theory to predict the stress that led to the development of the measured breakout. Most commonly, Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion has been used which disregards the influence of intermediate stress on strength. Hence, various polyaxial criteria have been proposed to include this effect. Here, we first review some selected polyaxial criteria: Drucker–Prager, Mogi, Modified Wiebols–Cook, and Modified Lade, and we conclude that their application in breakout analysis may be cumbersome and often unreliable. One reason for these problems is that the criteria are defined using stress invariants, while the stress estimation is most easily performed and analyzed in the principal stress space. Therefore, an alternative is to define the polyaxial criterion as a simple relation between maximum and intermediate stresses. We propose to define such an empirical criterion as a second order polynomial which fits trends observed in polyaxial laboratory strength data. Such approach allows to limit strength overestimation, often associated with the use of previous polyaxial criteria, and to easily relate uncertainties in strength estimation to uncertainty in maximum horizontal stress prediction.

O-199 IVF success rates: challenging the concept of recurrent implantation failure

Abstract Study question What is the likelihood of pregnancy in successive IVF attempts, and how does it relate to the concept of recurrent implantation failure? Summary answer The first two IVF transfer attempts have the highest pregnancy chances, while subsequent attempts show stability, challenging the notion of recurrent implantation failure. What is known already According to the theory of recurrent implantation failure (RIF), around 10% of patients undergoing several embryo transfers fail to implant due to certain risk factors. This should eventually enrich this subset as more transfers are performed. According to conventional thinking, this group’s IVF success rates should therefore soon start to significantly fall. Recent studies on euploid embryo transfers, however, have started to challenge this idea. They suggest that the IVF success rate drop may be less than previously believed, and that RIF may be less prevalent than previously expected. Study design, size, duration This registry study of the Danish IVF registry used historical data from 1994 to 2019, comprising a large cohort of 85,453 unique women who underwent 171,159 transfers. Participants/materials, setting, methods A participant could receive up to ten transfers in a row. The live birth rate (LBR) for every transfer cycle, as well as the cumulative LBR was calculated. After achieving a pregnancy, the woman was censored. The mean age of the patients included in the study was 33.8 (33.7-33.8) years at the time of the first ovarian stimulation with a mean BMI of 24.2 kg/m2. Main results and the role of chance The median number of stimulations was 2 and a total median number of 8 oocytes were obtained per patient. The first two transfer-attempts had the highest LBR, with 38.48% and 33.99%, respectively. Subsequent attempts showed a gradual decline but maintained relative stable: the LBR was 30.61% in the third attempt, followed by 28.00% for the fourth and 27.14% for the fifth attempt.Beyond the fifth attempt, the success rates were around 25%. Moreover,we conducted an analysis of 25,433 transfers performed from 2017-2019 transfers, predominantly involving blastocyst-transfers. Herein, the LBRs were higher: 42.31% in the first attempt and 37.81% in the second attempt. Like in the whole cohort, subsequent cycles demonstrated a gradual decline in LBR, however with the 8th attempt still yielding 28.87%. Notably, cumulative live birth rates (CLBR) revealed a steady increase for those having enough blastocysts to transfer: By the fifth attempt, the CLBR had reached 89.86%, and this trend continued to rise, culminating in 98.40% CLBR after the tenth attempt. These findings challenge the conventional notion of RIF,as they suggest that, while a slight decline in LBR is evident with additional IVF attempts, the cumulative chances of achieving a livebirth remain substantial for patients able to pursuing multiple cycles. Limitations, reasons for caution As a retrospective register study, we relied on historical data from 1994 to 2019. It does not take potential changes in clinical practices over time or patient-specific factors that may influence fertility, such as age, underlying conditions, or specific treatment protocols into account. Wider implications of the findings Our findings challenge the conventional understanding of RIF in IVF. The consistency of pregnancy rates over several transfers may have significant effects on patient counseling and clinical practice. Understanding that IVF success is possible even after multiple attempts may reduce anxiety, making informed decisions for couples pursuing reproductive treatments easier. Trial registration number not applicable

Theoretical Research and Shaking Table Test on Nominal Aspect Ratio of the Isolated Step-Terrace Structure

With the installation of rubber isolation bearings in the upper and lower ground layers, an isolated step-terrace structure was created. Considering the ultimate bearing capacity of the rubber bearing under tension as the critical condition, a comprehensive framework was established to evaluate the overturning failure mechanisms present in isolated step-terrace structures. The bound of nominal aspect ratio was identified as the principal control index within this framework, which incorporates critical parameters such as height ratio (α), width ratio (β), vertical tensile stiffness to compressive stiffness ratio (γ), seismic coefficient (k), and nominal vertical compressive stress (σ0) to provide a thorough analysis of the structural responses and potential failure scenarios. In order to further investigate this matter, a scaled model of an isolated step-terrace concrete frame structure featuring two dropped layers and a single span within an 8° seismic fortification zone was meticulously crafted at a 1:10 similarity ratio. Subsequently, a series of shaking table tests were conducted to analyze the structural response under seismic excitation. The findings indicate that: utilizing the bound of nominal aspect ratio as a metric to gauge the anti-overturning capacity of isolated step-terrace structures is a justified approach. In instances where the height ratio remains constant, the bound of nominal aspect ratio for both positive and negative overturning trended upward with an increase in the width ratio. Notably, the bound of nominal aspect ratio for positive overturning consistently registered lower values compared to that of the negative overturning, underscoring the heightened susceptibility of step-terrace structures to positive overturning. Moreover, in scenarios characterized by higher height and width ratios, the structural integrity remained unscathed by any overturning effects arising from insufficient tensile strength in rubber bearings. Furthermore, the bound of nominal aspect ratio exhibited an ascending trend as the seismic coefficient, nominal vertical compressive stress, and vertical tensile stiffness to compressive stiffness ratio decreased. The outcomes derived from the shaking table test not only confirm the impressive seismic performance of the structure, but also, by closely examining the instantaneous stress variations within the upper and lower isolation layers of the model, substantiate the existence of a positive overturning hazard in scenarios marked by higher seismic coefficients (k). This observation aligns seamlessly with the theoretical projections, thereby substantiating the efficacy of the structural overturning failure theory through direct empirical verification.

Towards effective implementation of the energy efficiency first principle: a theory-based classification and analysis of policy instruments

The energy efficiency first (EE1st) principle, embedded in the European Union's (EU) recast Energy Efficiency Directive, aims to prioritise cost-effective energy efficiency solutions over new energy supply infrastructure. These solutions encompass not only end-use energy efficiency, but also, notably, demand-side flexibility. This research bridges the gap between the theoretical underpinnings of the principle and practical policy implementation. Drawing on market failure theory, it identifies an inherent bias in EU energy markets in favour of energy supply infrastructure. By highlighting the correction of market failures – from externalities to transaction costs – through targeted policy instruments, it presents a theoretical policy intervention logic for EE1st. Based on this, it offers a set of twenty-nine established and emerging policy instruments linked to specific market failures, thus providing a systematic roadmap for EE1st application. The study concludes that levelling the playing field between energy efficiency and energy supply requires a broad policy response. This extends beyond traditional energy efficiency policy of standards and public financing, and includes instruments such as electricity market design, remuneration schemes for network operators, and emissions pricing.

Phase-field model for 2D cohesive-frictional shear fracture: An energetic formulation

This paper presents a phase-field model for cohesive-frictional shear fracture. The model is derived based on two energetic principles: the energy conservation law and a variational inequality of virtual work that serves as a stability condition. We show that all the governing equations for frictional fracture can be obtained from the above two principles, including the equilibrium condition, the phase-field evolution law and, most importantly, the yield function and flow rule for the plasticity-like frictional slip. The information of crack direction is naturally included in the flow rule. Theoretical and numerical results show that the proposed model is faithfully consistent with the Mohr–Coulomb theory of frictional failure in terms of the crack nucleation stress and direction. In addition, the presented phase-field model has an explicit frictional cohesive law.

The effect of strategic alliances on supply chain resilience under external shocks

ABSTRACT Enterprises opt for alliances to bolster supply chain resilience (SCR) against external shocks. Yet, studies on the impact of strategic alliances on SCR from an operations management perspective are still lacking. This study develops a supply chain network (SCN) cascading failure model that accommodates the presence of strategic alliances, drawing upon complex network theory and cascading failure theory. Using numerical simulations and empirical examples, the study delves into how enterprises can effectively enhance their SCR by forming strategic alliances and appropriately allocating redundant resources. The findings reveal that: (I) Strategic alliances enhance SCR; (II) When enterprises maintain a degree of redundancy, the strengthening effect of alliances on SCR is even more pronounced, particularly under significant external shocks; and (III) In the context of cascading failures, disruptions to smaller enterprises have a more pronounced effect on SCR. Notably, weak-weak alliances contribute more to SCR than strong-strong alliances.

The relationship between the cutting-edge, tool wear, and chip formation during Inconel 718 dry cutting

This study comprehensively addresses the machining of nickel alloys, focusing its attention on crucial aspects related to chip formation and tool wear. Detailed characterization of the morphology and the chip formation process was performed by analyzing parameters such as chip segmentation ratio and variables such as shear band thickness and strain rate. Additionally, a numerical model was used to quantify stresses and temperatures at the tool/chip interface and to evaluate damage, thus contributing to the understanding of the development of chip formation. A transition in chip shapes as the toothing increases is highlighted, evidenced by segmentation ratio values below 0.5, indicative of the presence of discontinuous chips. The increase in cutting-edge radius is associated with a gradual increase in the compression ratio, indicating a higher plastic energy requirement in chip formation. Numerical simulations support this theory of failure. A significant correlation of 80% was identified between flank wear and the increase in shear force oscillation amplitude, indicating that flank wear contributes to system vibration. It is also noted that the adiabatic shear bands (ASB) are narrow, revealing a marked plastic deformation in the primary shear zone. Consequently, the remarkable incidence of wear with cutting parameters on chip formation is demonstrated, affecting the cutting force amplitude and, hence, the workpiece topography.

The effect of the stress equilibrium factor on the composite case of the solid rocket motor

In this paper, based on the composite structure design and analysis software ANSYS ACP, the layup design for the composite cases of the equal pole hole solid rocket motor with different stress equilibrium factors is carried out. The finite element software ANSYS Workbench is used to study in detail the effects of stress equilibrium factor on the stress level, failure degree, and burst pressure prediction of the case under a certain internal pressure. The results show that reducing the value of the stress equilibrium factor can reduce the stress level of each winding layer along the main direction of the material in the motor case and gradually transfer the maximum stress of the case along the fiber direction from the weak stress zone to the cylinder section. This is beneficial for improving the burst pressure of the case and making the burst point located in the cylinder section. However, whether the case failure is related to the selected failure theory and strength criterion, the failure results and burst pressure obtained using different failure theories and strength criteria may be different, which indicates that each failure criterion has its scope of application and limitations. Under the Tsai-Wu criterion, using the stress equilibrium equation to calculate the stress equilibrium factor can just ensure that each winding layer of the motor case does not fail under the working pressure. In summary, when designing a composite case and predicting its failure, in addition to considering whether the stress equilibrium factor taken is conducive to meeting the design requirements for the strength of the case, it is also necessary to consider the use of multiple failure criteria to study the failure of the case. Obviously, arbitrarily selecting the stress equilibrium factor is not appropriate in the above process. By analyzing the influence of the stress equilibrium factor on the strength and failure condition of the motor case, it can provide an effective reference for the design of a composite case for SRM.

Finite element analysis of self-tensioning and bursting of 210 L carbon fiber fully wound hydrogen storage cylinders

This paper focuses on a 210 L carbon fiber fully wound hydrogen storage cylinder. A 1/8 scale model is selected for analysis. Using the finite element software ANSYS APDL and secondary development language, an orthotropic material performance equation is formulated and applied to the composite material lay-up. Following DOT CFFC standards, the cylinder undergoes simulated loading and unloading analysis to determine the optimal self-tightening pressure. Subsequently, progressive failure theory and the Tsai-Wu failure criterion are employed to identify the failure modes of the composite material. Continual adjustments to the element stiffness are made during the loading process. Employing the element birth and death technique, failed elements are terminated and recorded, and based on increasing trends, the burst pressure of the cylinder can be predicted. The results closely align with experimental data, validating its applicability as the basis for burst prediction.

Insulation for Rotating Low-Voltage Electrical Machines: Degradation, Lifetime Modeling, and Accelerated Aging Tests

The low-voltage electric machine (EM) is a core technology for transportation electrification, and features like high power density and compact volume are essential prerequisites. However, these requirements are usually in conflict with the reliability property of EM, especially in the safety-critical industry such as aviation. Therefore, an appropriate balance between high-performance and reliability needs to be found. Often, the over-engineering method is applied to ensure safety, although it might have a detrimental effect on the EM volume. To address this issue, the EM reliability assessment is included at the EM design stage through the physics of failure (PoF) theory. In EMs, the windings play a key role in electromechanical energy conversion, but their insulation system is subject to frequent failure and represents a reliability bottleneck. Therefore, in-depth research on the root causes of insulation breakdown is beneficial for EM reliability improvement purposes. Indeed, increasing awareness and knowledge on the mechanism of the insulation degradation process and the related lifetime modeling enables the growth of appropriate tools for achieving reliability targets since the first EM design steps. In this work, the main aspects of the insulation system, in terms of materials and manufacturing, are first reviewed. Then, the principal stresses experienced by the winding insulation system are deeply discussed with the purpose of building a profound understanding of the PoF. Finally, an overview of the most common insulation lifetime prediction models is presented, and their use for accomplishing the reliability-oriented design (RoD) and the remaining useful life (RUL) estimation are examined.

Strength prediction of the notched composite laminates from equivalent un-notched laminates

In this paper, a theoretical failure model is proposed to predict ultimate strength of fiber-reinforced composite laminate with a circular hole. In the failure model, the laminate with a circular hole is modeled by an equivalent intact laminate which contains laminae with the same stacking sequence but with equivalent stiffness and strength derived by micromechanics and point stress formulation, respectively. The ultimate strength of this equivalent intact laminate is calculated by the improved Puck’s failure theory combined with stiffness degradation model. The failure model so formulated is applied to notched laminates with arbitrary stacking sequences. The capability is demonstrated by strength predictions of several multidirectional notched laminates, including [45∘/0∘/−45∘/90∘]2s AS4/3501-6 notched laminates, [45∘/90∘/−45∘/0∘]4s IM7/8552 notched laminates and [0∘/902∘/0∘]4s AS4/3502 cross-ply notched laminates, which are in good agreement with experimental results.

Experimental Study on the Butterfly Shape of the Plastic Zone around a Hole near Rock Failure

The precursor of rock failure around a hole has always been one of the research hotspots in the field of rock mechanics, and the distribution of the plastic zone is often adopted to reflect the location and form of rock failure. The shape of the plastic zone around a hole before rock failure can guide the mechanism of and early warning methods for geotechnical engineering disasters, while previous theoretical research and numerical simulation results show that the shape of the plastic zone around the hole is butterfly shaped under specific stress, which is referred to as butterfly failure theory. Studies also indicate that the butterfly shape of the plastic zone around a hole is considered to be the main cause of many disasters, which signifies the importance of studying the morphology of the plastic zone near rock failure. Therefore, this study is committed to finding the specific shape of the plastic zone near rock failure through relatively accurate and a high number of AE event location results, and the final experimental results show that the plastic zone around the hole is basically a butterfly shape near rock failure. This study verifies the correctness of the butterfly failure theory and provides an important reference for the study of geotechnical engineering disaster mechanisms and monitoring methods. The fact that the plastic zone in the early stage of rock failure in this study tends to be butterfly shaped preliminarily indicates the fractal law of rock failure. In the moment before rock failure, the distribution of AE events is more regular, which leads to large-scale collapse type failure.

Experimental Study of the Role of Gap Size on Bolt Failure in Clevis and Lug Joints

Abstract A common standard for conservatively evaluating the required bolt strength in a clevis–lug joint is to assume that the bolt must survive under an interaction equation that combines loading caused by bending, shear, and axial preload–induced stresses. In practice, this leads to unnecessarily large bolts because the true failure mode is typically closer to simple shear with some bending stresses. In this experimental study, a clevis and lug joint with a variable gap between the clevis arms was used to determine the force necessary to break high strength bolts with various gaps between the clevis and the lug, ranging from pure shear (no gap) to a gap 2.8 times the diameter of the bolt. The testing results clearly show that failure occurs at forces that are often significantly higher than would be predicted by classic, closed-form analysis of the combined loading. In particular, the bolt failed at the force predicted by simple double shear failure theory for gap sizes up to half of the bolt diameter, and for larger gaps, the failure force was consistently higher than would be predicted by classic interaction equations. Thus, although assuming failure that is due to combined bending, shear, and axial stresses is safely conservative, the necessary bolt size is actually significantly smaller than this method predicts.

Religious Environments, Governments, and the Density of Nonprofit Organizations

This study examines the impact of religious environments on the jurisdictional density of nonprofit organizations. It has been argued that religiosity can affect nonprofit activities by promoting prosocial attitudes, collectivism, collaborating and bonding, and business ethics. While prior research has investigated the effects of religiosity on various aspects associated with nonprofit activities, such as volunteering, generosity, nonprofit management, and prosocial attitudes, there remains a dearth of studies exploring the direct relationship between religious environment and the size of nonprofit sectors. Existing research yields mixed results with certain limitations. This research addresses these limitations and finds that a more vibrant religious environment contributes to a higher density of both religious and nonreligious nonprofit organizations. The study also finds that the effect is more pronounced in areas with a higher government presence. This finding is consistent with the prediction of interdependence theory but not government failure theory.