Extreme North Atlantic Oscillation Research Articles

Extreme waves in the Caribbean Sea: spatial regionalization and long-term analysis

The extreme wave height distribution in the Caribbean Sea is studied using a new method based on the maximum basin-wide aggregate of significant wave height, Hs, values per month. Besides, by means of the Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) technique, we identify coherent geographical regions with similar extreme wave height variability in the Caribbean Sea. Our findings revealed three primary regions: the eastern side with comparatively lower values, the central region with intermediate values, and the western side with the highest extreme wave heights. The study also examines the wind forcing conditions driving the spatial and temporal variability of the extreme waves, highlighting the influence of the low-pressure belt dynamics as well as the role played by the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) index, and the impact of cold fronts and hurricanes on extreme wave heights. Additionally, we explore the relationship between the extreme wave height distribution and climatic indices, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Oceanic Niño (ONI). The results reveal that the spatial distribution of extreme wave heights in the Caribbean Sea is mostly ruled by the influence of the CLLJ, with correlations close to 80%. In addition, significant correlations were observed between the extreme wave heights and the ENSO in the central Caribbean, as well as positive correlations between the extreme wave heights and NAO in the eastern part of the basin, and significant values of correlation with the negative phases of AMO and AMM in the whole basin. We show that, unlike conventional (or broadly used) methods deployed to identify extreme wave height, such as percentile 99th, Hs99, our methodology allows a further assessment of the wind and climate forcing conditions associated with the extreme wave events. Although, we acknowledge that the method here presented has limitations to capture extreme wave height outliers, it has the advantage of being used concomitant with the wind forcing to develop multivariate wave climate analysis at basin scale, and could be extended to a more local scale when studying coastal processes.

Hydroclimate Variations across North-Central China during the Past 530 Years and Their Relationships with Atmospheric Oscillations

Detailed study of historical drought events in North-Central China (NCC) is important to understand current hydroclimate variability in the background of global warming. Here, we combined 12 published tree-ring chronologies and 12 dryness/wetness indices (DWI) to reconstruct dry and wet climate variability across NCC. These 24 proxy records showed similarly significant responses to warm season (May–June–July–August–September, MJJAS) moisture signals. A new 530-year-long reconstruction of self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) values for the warm season in NCC was determined using a nested principal component regression (PCR) approach. The new reconstruction shows significant correlations with the instrumental MJJAS scPDSI data across NCC during the period AD 1901–2012. The reconstructed MJJAS scPDSI revealed seven severe dry/wet events from AD 1470 to 2012. The periods AD 1701–1727 and AD 1985–2011 represent the longest dry periods, and the drought during the 1920s is identified as the most severe one over the past 530 years. Our reconstruction shows significant interannual spectral peaks at the frequency domain of 2–7 years, together with relatively weaker decadal frequencies of 16, 24, and 78 years. The results of superposed epoch analysis (SEA) show that extreme North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) years may modulate drought variability in NCC.

The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation for Projections of Winter Mean Precipitation in Europe

AbstractClimate models generally project an increase in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index under a future high‐emissions scenario, alongside an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe and a decrease in southern Europe. The extent to which future forced NAO trends are important for European winter precipitation trends and their uncertainty remains unclear. We show using the Multimodel Large Ensemble Archive that the NAO plays a small role in northern European mean winter precipitation projections for 2080–2099. Conversely, half of the model uncertainty in southern European mean winter precipitation projections is potentially reducible through improved understanding of the NAO projections. Extreme positive NAO winters increase in frequency in most models as a consequence of mean NAO changes. These extremes also have more severe future precipitation impacts, largely because of mean precipitation changes. This has implications for future resilience to extreme positive NAO winters, which frequently have severe societal impacts.

Facing extremes: Cory’s shearwaters adjust their foraging behaviour differently in response to contrasting phases of North Atlantic Oscillation

Climate projections predict increases in the frequency and severity of extreme climate events over the next decades. Hence, phases of extreme climatic indices are emerging as one of the most dangerous effects of climate change, though their impacts on wildlife populations are still poorly understood. Here, we studied the foraging behaviour, body condition and breeding performance of a neritic (Berlenga Island) and oceanic (Corvo Island) population of Cory’s shearwaters (Calonectris borealis) in the mid-North Atlantic, during the two most positive and negative phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reported in recent decades. We showed that during an extreme negative NAO phase, birds from Berlenga spent less time foraging and provided less food to their chicks, which subsequently grew more slowly and were in poorer body condition. In contrast, the opposite pattern was found during the strong positive NAO phase in this population. Interestingly, during the same extreme negative NAO phase, birds from Corvo were more successful in terms of their foraging and breeding performance, taking advantage of the enhanced productivity associated with the cyclonic eddies (negative sea surface height anomalies) which occurred close to the colony. However, when anticyclonic eddies (positive sea surface height anomalies) were prevalent near the colony during the strong positive NAO phase, birds travelled longer distances, which negatively impacted their own body condition and that of their chicks. Our study shows that populations breeding in neritic and oceanic areas of the eastern North Atlantic Ocean make contrasting foraging behavioural decisions in response to climate extremes and highlights the importance of mesoscale eddies for oceanic populations of pelagic seabirds.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Swedish Winter Climate and Nutrient Leaching.

The winter climate in northwestern Europe is commonly influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Its intensity, expressed as an index (NAO), has been suggested for use in assessing nutrient leaching from arable land to water and the effects of mitigation measures. We found significant ( < 0.05) positive linear relationships between NAO and an air freezing-thawing index in central and southern Sweden for 2004 to 2016. This period covered winters with both extreme low and high NAO. There were significant negative linear relationships between NAO and a snow depth index. Management and nutrient leaching were studied simultaneously in two agricultural catchments (20.7 ha, code 11M; 788 ha, code M36) in southwestern Sweden. Catchments 11M (silty-clay soil) and M36 (sandy hills with a central, heavy clay plain) are both artificially drained. Total N and total P leaching increased significantly with winter (November-April) NAO in both catchments. In contrast, leaching of dissolved reactive P (DRP) was not related to NAO. The highest DRP concentrations were observed in connection with specific agricultural practices, whereas moderately elevated DRP concentrations were linked to snowmelt events. Concentrations of P in other forms (other P) were even more elevated (1.02 mg L) in 11M in winter 2014-2015, probably due to a large (32% of area) internal buffer (ley-fallow) in a central ravine being plowed down in autumn 2014. No general trend in P or N fertilization was found in catchment M36. Thus NAO may be appropriate for use in trend analyses of nutrient load in the study region.

Greenland blocking index daily series 1851–2015: Analysis of changes in extremes and links with North Atlantic and UK climate variability and change

We present a homogenized Greenland blocking index (GBI) daily record from 1851 to 2015, therefore significantly extending our previously published monthly/seasonal GBI analysis. This new time series is analysed for evidence of changes in extreme events, and we investigate the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic precursors. We compare occurrences and changes in extreme events between our GBI record and a recently published, temporally similar daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) series, and use this comparison to test dynamic meteorology hypotheses relating negative NAO to Greenland blocking. We also compare daily GBI changes and extreme events with long‐running indices of England and Wales temperature and precipitation, to assess potential downstream effects of Greenland blocking on UK extreme weather events and climate change. In this extended analysis we show that there have been sustained periods of positive GBI during 1870–1900 and from the late 1990s to present. A clustering of extreme high GBI events since 2000 is not consistently reflected by a similar grouping of extreme low NAO events. Case studies of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes linked with extreme high and low daily GBI episodes are used to shed light on potential linkages between Greenland blocking and jet‐stream changes. Particularly noteworthy is a clustering of extreme high GBI events during mid‐October in 4 out of 5 years during 2002–2006, which we investigate from both cryospheric and dynamic meteorology perspectives. Supporting evidence suggests that these autumn extreme GBI episodes may have been influenced by regional sea‐ice anomalies off west Greenland but were probably largely forced by increases in Rossby‐wave train activity originating from the tropical Pacific. However, more generally our results indicate that high GBI winter anomalies are co‐located with sea‐ice anomalies, while there seems to be minimal influence of sea‐ice anomalies on the recent significant increase in summer GBI.

Relationship between NAO and wind climate over Norway

This study investigates the strength of the relationship between the large-scale atmospheric phenomenon known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Norwegian winter wind climate. The relationship is measured through spatial and temporal correlations of wind climate measures derived from reanalysis datasets and the winter NAO index for the time period 1920 to 2010. Wind speeds exceeding specific thresholds, percentile wind speeds, and wind direction frequencies are correlated with the NAO index. The results show strong and significant correlations for median and strong wind speeds over southern Norway and along the western coast to about 68° N. The results also indicate that a positive NAO is strongly associated with increased frequencies of winds from the southwest and decreased frequencies of winds from the northeast. There is no significant relationship between wind climate and the NAO for the northernmost part of the country. Time series reflect a temporal variability in the strength of the relationship with the NAO, where a stronger relationship is found during time periods containing the most extreme NAO phases. Due to the lack of correlations in northern Norway, a correlation analysis with the Barents Oscillation, which is a dominating mode of variability over the Barents region, was also conducted, but yielded no strong and significant correlation at any point across Norway. The implications of the variation in correlations, particularly those associated with geo - graphy and choice of wind climate metric for wind energy production, are discussed.

An assessment of actual evapotranspiration and soil water deficit in agricultural regions in Europe

Changes in agricultural droughts were investigated using simulations of soil water deficit (SWD) and actual evapotranspiration (ETA) from a distributed semi-empirical soil water balance model – swbEWA. At European scale, both SWD and ETA did not change significantly between 1951 and 2011. However, significant increases in SWD were found in southern Europe, except in western Turkey, whereas in northern Europe changes in SWD remain small. ETA increased significantly as a joint response to increased air temperature and precipitation in northern Europe. Using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and the Pearson correlation coefficients (RPearson), we showed that large-scale agricultural droughts are influenced by the recurrence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and by the atmospheric blocking. Atmospheric blocking in different months throughout the year and extreme NAO index (mainly in winter months) contribute to the severity of agricultural droughts. During a negative phase of NAO, storms over the North Atlantic and Europe are less frequent and as a consequence dry weather in Europe is observed. Positive NAO influences agricultural drought in Europe by shifting storms tracks from the North Atlantic onto European continent to more northerly paths, which in turn decreases the amount of precipitation over central Europe. Large SWDs are mainly influenced by atmospheric blocking. Notably, winter blocking increases severity of agricultural droughts in southwestern Europe, while summer blocking influences agricultural droughts in southeastern Europe. Notwithstanding, the first three EOFs contribute to less than 40% of the total spatial variability of SWD. This shows that agricultural droughts are complex phenomena that can be only partly explained by extreme NAO or by intensive atmospheric blocking.

Unusual subpolar North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom in 2010: Volcanic fertilization or North Atlantic Oscillation?

In summer and autumn 2010, a highly anomalous phytoplankton bloom, with chlorophyll concentration more than double that of previous years, was observed in the Irminger Basin, southwest of Iceland. Two unusual events occurred during 2010 which had the potential to promote the unusual bloom. First, in spring 2010, the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland erupted, depositing large quantities of tephra into the subpolar North Atlantic. Second, during the winter of 2009/2010 the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) became extremely negative, developing into the second strongest negative NAO on record. Hydrographic conditions were highly anomalous in the region, with an influx of freshwater spreading through the basin, and unusual nutrient and mixed layer depth conditions. Here we use a combination of satellite, modeled and in situ data to investigate whether the input of iron from the volcanic eruption or change in hydrographic conditions due to the extreme negative NAO were responsible for the anomalous phytoplankton bloom. We conclude that changes in physical forcing driven by the NAO, and not the volcanic eruption, stimulated the unusual bloom.

Impacts of changes in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation on particulate matter and human health in Europe

In this study we use a global climate model to assess particulate matter (PM) variability induced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in Europe during winter and the potential impact on human health of a future shift in the NAO mean state. Our study shows that extreme NAO phases in the 1990s modulated most of the interannual variability of winter PM concentrations in several European countries. Increased PM concentrations as a result of a positive shift in the mean winter NAO of one standard deviation would lead to about 5500 additional premature deaths in Mediterranean countries, compared to the simulated average PM health impact for the year 2000. In central‐northern Europe, instead, higher wind speed and increased PM removal by precipitation lead to negative PM concentration anomalies with associated health benefits. We suggest that the NAO index is a useful indicator for the role of interannual atmospheric variability on large‐scale pollution‐health impacts.

Estimates of the North Atlantic Oscillation back to 1692 using a Paris–London westerly index

AbstractA westerly index for Europe is developed back to 1692 using newly recovered and corrected Mean Sea‐level Pressure (MSLP) data from London and Paris. The index is compared against various instrumental and proxy indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In the winter, the Paris‐London index depicts a spatial pattern of atmospheric circulation that is bi‐modal, with centres of action that are shifted eastwards compared to the NAO. Owing to asymmetry in the NAO the Paris‐London index provides a good depiction of positive NAO conditions as well as extreme negative phases of the NAO that arise from reversals of the pressure centres, but less extreme negative NAO conditions are associated with westerly index values approaching zero. The merit in using the Paris‐London index lies with its consistency over time as a measure of westerly wind flow, which may not be the case with other proxy‐based indices. In the summer, the Paris‐London index bears a close relationship to the reconstructed high‐summer NAO series of Folland et al. (2009) as well as the summer Luterbacher et al. (1999) NAO reconstruction. An important finding is that the summer NAO was highly variable during the early nineteenth century but was predominately positive on the decadal time scale during that period. Since circa 1970 the summer index has mostly been negative, indicating reduced westerlies and increased blocking conditions that are exceptional in the context of the last 250 years. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Origin and predictability of the extreme negative NAO winter of 2009/10

[1] The winter of 2009/2010 was one of the most negative winters of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the last 150 years. While most operational extended-range forecasting systems had difficulties in predicting the onset of the negative NAO phase, once established, extended-range forecasts were relatively skilful in predicting its persistence. Here, the origin and predictability of the unusual winter of 2009/10 are explored through numerical experimentation with the ECMWF Monthly forecasting system. More specifically, the role of anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice, the tropical atmospheric circulation, the stratospheric polar vortex, solar insolation and near surface temperature (proxy for snow cover) are examined. None of these anomalies is capable of producing the observed NAO anomaly, especially in terms of its magnitude. The results of this study support the hypothesis that internal atmospheric dynamical processes were responsible for the onset and persistence of the negative NAO phase during the 2009/10 winter.

Simulated Response of the Arctic Freshwater Budget to Extreme NAO Wind Forcing

Abstract The authors investigate the response of the Arctic Ocean freshwater budget to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using a regional-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology GCM (MITgcm) and carry out several different 10-yr and 30-yr integrations. At 1/6° (∼18 km) resolution the model resolves the major Arctic transport pathways, including Bering Strait and the Canadian Archipelago. Two main calculations are performed by repeating the wind fields of two contrasting NAO years in each run for the extreme negative and positive NAO phases of 1969 and 1989, respectively. These calculations are compared both with a control run and the compiled observationally based freshwater budget estimate of Serreze et al. The results show a clear response in the Arctic freshwater budget to NAO forcing, that is, repeat NAO negative wind forcing results in virtually all freshwater being retained in the Arctic, with the bulk of the freshwater content being pooled in the Beaufort gyre. In contrast, repeat NAO positive forcing accelerates the export of freshwater out of the Arctic to the North Atlantic, primarily via Fram Strait (∼900 km3 yr−1) and the Canadian Archipelago (∼500 km3 yr−1), with a total loss in freshwater storage of ∼13 000 km3 (15%) after 10 yr. The large increase in freshwater export through the Canadian Archipelago highlights the important role that this gateway plays in redistributing the freshwater of the Arctic to subpolar seas, by providing a direct pathway from the Arctic basin to the Labrador Sea, Gulf Stream system, and Atlantic Ocean. The authors discuss the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean to long-term fixed extreme NAO states and show that the freshwater content of the Arctic is able to be restored to initial values from a depleted freshwater state after ∼20 yr.

Future impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol on North Atlantic climate

We examine the simulated future change of the North Atlantic winter climate influenced by anthropogenic greenhouses gases and sulfate aerosol. Two simulations performed with the climate model ECHAM4/OPYC3 are investigated: a simulation forced by greenhouse gases and a simulation forced by greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol. Only the direct aerosol effect on the clear-sky radiative fluxes is considered. The sulfate aerosol has a significant impact on temperature, radiative quantities, precipitation and atmospheric dynamics. Generally, we find a similar, but weaker future climate response if sulfate aerosol is considered additionally. Due to the induced negative top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing, the future warming is attenuated. We find no significant future trends in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in both simulations. However, the aerosol seems to have a balancing effect on the occurence of extreme NAO events. The simulated correlation patterns of the NAO index with temperature and precipitation, respectively, agree well with observations up to the present. The extent of the regions influenced by the NAO tends to be reduced under strong greenhouse gas forcing. If sulfate is included and the warming is smaller, this tendency is reversed. Also, the future decrease in baroclinicity is smaller due to the aerosols’ cooling effect and the poleward shift in track density is partly offset. Our findings imply that in simulations where aerosol cooling is neglected, the magnitude of the future warming over the North Atlantic region is overestimated, and correlation patterns differ from those based on the future simulation including aerosols.

Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on water resources in central Iberia: Precipitation, streamflow anomalies, and reservoir management strategies

This paper analyzes the influence of the extreme phases of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on water resources in the Spanish region of the Tagus River basin. By analyzing a winter NAO index based on station sea level pressure, the years between 1957 and 2003 were classified as normal, positive, and negative NAO years. A statistical test was then applied to monthly data series of precipitation, river discharge, reservoir storage, and reservoir release to analyze the variations in these variables. For all four variables, significant differences were found between positive and negative NAO years, the former resulting in reduced water availability (negative anomalies) and the latter resulting in increased water availability (positive anomalies). The influence of extreme NAO winters was found to act with different time lags on different variables: The effect of extreme NAO winters on precipitation was found to be quite immediate (and significant for December to March), but this effect was observed later in the year and lasted longer for river discharge, reservoir storage, and water release. Positive and negative NAO years were also found to have different effects on these variables, in that the effects of positive years were more sustained and those of negative years were more rapid and less prolonged. In spite of the high variability of the availability of water resources, the strategies for management of the reservoir system of the basin were found in most cases to provide a regular supply that meets water demands. However, our results also indicate that these water management practices are not adequate for the expected scenarios of climate change and increasing water demand.

The dependence of UK extreme sea levels and storm surges on the North Atlantic Oscillation

The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in effecting changes in winter extreme high and low waters and storm surges in UK waters has been investigated with the use of a depth-averaged tide+surge numerical model. Spatial patterns of correlation of extreme high and low waters (extreme still water sea levels) with the NAO index are similar to those of median or mean sea level studied previously. Explanations for the similarities, and for differences where they occur, are proposed. Spatial patterns of correlations of extreme high and low and median surge with the NAO index are similar to the corresponding extreme sea-level patterns. Suggestions are made as to which properties of surges (frequency, duration, magnitude) are linked most closely to NAO variability. Several climate models suggest higher (more positive) average values of NAO index during the next 100 years. However, the impact on the UK coastline in terms of increased flood risk should be low (aside from other consequences of climate change such as a global sea-level rise) if the existing relationships between extreme high waters and NAO index are maintained.

Comparison between Two Extreme NAO Winters and Consequences on the Thermal Regime of Lake Vendyurskoe, Karelia

Abstract For 10 consecutive winters, measurements were carried out in Lake Vendyurskoe, Karelia, Russia. The aim of these measurements was to investigate some of the physical processes in this small shallow lake during its ice-covered period. Detailed measurements of ice thickness and condition, snow thickness, water temperature, salt content, and currents were developed into a database. Within this database are the winters 1994/95 and 1995/96, which are characterized by a very sharp change between positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This note investigates and compares the effects of these two NAO phases on the regional climate and their relation to the thermal regime of Lake Vendyurskoe. It became clear that the ice-covered period length did not vary much from one winter to the other; however, a large difference was observed in the maximum average ice cover thickness and in the average water temperature at ice formation (e.g., larger thickness and colder water temperature during the 1995/96 winter).

The Relationships Between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Baltic Coast Ice Conditions

This paper focuses on relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index in selected months and periods and the ice conditions along the southern coast of the Baltic Sea. The data on ice conditions, including the number of days with ice (L) and the length of ice season (counted in days; S), cover 25 observation regions located between Arkona in the West and Kaliningrad in the East for winters of the 1950/51–1989/90 period. The NAO Index, understood to be the difference between normalized values of atmospheric pressure in Gibraltar and Reykjavik, was applied.Correlation and regression analysis methods were applied to determine and study the relationships between NAO (independent variable) and the parameters of ice conditions L and S (dependent variables). The linear relationships recorded for sheltered basins (Szczecin Lagoon, Puck Bay Small, Vistula Lagoon) were stronger than those calculated for unsheltered ones (e.g., open Baltic Sea coast). The majority of relationships of ice conditions (L and S) to winter monthly NAO values, particularly for January (NAOII) and February (NAOII) in sheltered basins, are statistically significant, some of them even at the level of α = 0.01. The linear correlation coefficients, in most cases, were included within the range from −0.3 to −0.7. The strongest of them were calculated for January and February and encompassed the range from −0.5 to −0.7. The strength of these relationships tended to increase when particular months were connected into several-month periods of NAO Index, especially during the January–March and December–March periods. During these periods the correlation coefficients were usually in the −0.7 to −0.8 interval. In addition, the relationships of the NAO index with L were distinctly stronger than those with S. The strongest relationships, with linear correlation coefficients exceeding −0.80, were obtained for the number of days with ice (L) in protected areas, e.g., in Vistula Lagoon for a period of December–March (NAOXII–III) and in Puck Bay for January–March period (NAOI–III). These relationships are weaker in unsheltered areas, where the correlation coefficient does not exceed the value of −0.75. The strongest of them concern the estuarine regions of large rivers (Dziwnów, Świbno) and bays (Mie dzyzdroje), whereas the relationships between the NAO Index and L and S did not differ significantly from each other in unsheltered basins. However, for the NAO periods of December–March and January–March, they were stronger with S than with L.The correlation coefficients show a decreasing tendency eastward along the southern Baltic Sea coast from Pomeranian Bay to Gdańsk Bay (northward of the Hel Peninsula). They become stronger in the western part of the Gulf of Gdańsk and in the mouth of the Vistula and again decrease eastward.During some extremely severe or very mild winters, the extreme ice conditions do not always match the extreme NAO index values. During extremely severe winters, the ice cover could exist for a relatively long period, which is a result not only of the high inertia of thick ice covers but also of high cloudiness restricting the impact of insolation. However, during extremely mild winters, ice can disappear relatively quickly (thin covers, low cloudiness), comparable to the NAO index values.

Shallow-marine sediment cores record climate variability and earthquake activity off Lisbon (Portugal) for the last 2000 years

Sea Surface Temperature (SST), river discharge and biological productivity have been reconstructed from a multi-proxy study of a high-temporal-resolution sedimentary sequence recovered from the Tagus deposition center off Lisbon (Portugal) for the last 2000 years. SST shows 2 °C variability on a century scale that allows the identification of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). High Iron (Fe) and fine-sediment deposition accompanied by high n -alkane concentrations and presence of freshwater diatoms during the LIA (1300–1900 AD) (Science 292 (2001) 662) suggest augmented river discharge, whereas higher total-alkenone concentrations point to increased river-induced productivity. During the MWP (550–1300 AD) (Science 292 (2001) 662) larger mean-grain size and low values of magnetic susceptibility, and concentrations of Fe, n -alkanes, and n -alcohols are interpreted to reflect decreased runoff. At the same time, increased benthic and planktonic foraminifera abundances and presence of upwelling related diatoms point to increased oceanic productivity. On the basis of the excellent match found between the negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the intensified Tagus River discharge observed for the last century, it is hypothesized that the increased influx of terrigenous material during the LIA reflects a negative NAO-like state or the occurrence of frequent extreme NAO minima. During the milder few centuries of the MWP, stronger coastal upwelling conditions are attributed to a persistent, positive NAO-like state or the frequent occurrence of extreme NAO maxima. The peak in magnetic susceptibility, centered at 90 cm composite core depth (ccd), is interpreted as the result of the well-known 1755 AD Lisbon earthquake. The Lisbon earthquake and accompanying tsunami are estimated to have caused the loss of 39 cm of sediment (355 years of record—most of the LIA) and the instantaneous deposition of a 19-cm sediment bed.

A preliminary investigation of basin water response to climate forcing in a Scottish fjord: evaluating the influence of the NAO

The sea lochs (fjords) of NW Scotland bridge the land–ocean interface in a region of Europe which is particularly well situated to monitor changes in westerly air streams. Inter-annual atmospheric circulation changes at this latitude are largely governed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Comparing two recent extreme NAO years, a two-dimensional model of Loch Sunart, NW Scotland, is used to examine the potential effects of climate oscillations on the magnitude and frequency of deep-water renewal events and the resulting water properties in the fjord basins. In the upper basin of the fjord, meteorological forcing during the high NAO index year (1988–89) resulted in less-frequent deep-water renewal, greater variability in basin salinity and a lower annual-mean salinity (by 0.52) than that predicted for the low NAO index year (1995–96). In the main basin, variations in meteorological forcing had much less effect on basin water properties. In both basins, predicted deep water inflow was significantly greater during the negative phase NAO, with annual inflow to the upper and main basins being respectively 50% and 300% greater during 1995–96 relative to 1988–99. Through a sensitivity analysis, the NAO is shown to affect upper basin water properties through the influence of low-frequency anomalies in the meteorological forcing, particularly the enhanced westerly wind stress associated with positive phases, which inhibits deep water renewal over the winter months. The salinity of the main and upper basins respond differently to the boundary forcing due to differential tidal mixing above the respectively sub- and super-critical entrance sills. Predictions of basin water isotope ratios are made by applying the salinity: δ 18O water mixing line for the region to the salinity results; the combination of the weak dependence of δ 18O water on salinity and the stable salinity predicted for the main basin suggests that some fjord basins may provide ideal sites for palaeotemperature studies.