Extreme Heat Episodes Research Articles

Vulnerability to heat-related mortality and the effect of prevention measures: a time-stratified case-crossover study in Switzerland.

Swiss climate scenarios predict increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat episodes in the future. For the effective prevention of heat-related mortality, several aspects of the population's vulnerability to heat must be understood on a local level. A nationwide analysis of individual death records was conducted, enabling a more comprehensive understanding than typical heat studies based on aggregated data. A total of 320,306 individual death records from the Swiss National Cohort with precise address information during the warm season (May to September) from 2003-2016 were linked to indoor and outdoor high-resolution daily temperature estimates. A time-stratified case-crossover study combined with distributed lag non-linear models was then performed to assess the temperature-mortality associations for various causes of death and to estimate the potential effect modification of individual characteristics. Additionally, it was explored whether the effect of extreme heat changed over time in regions with and without cantonal heat-health action plans (HHAPs). Using the temperature with the lowest cause-specific mortality risk (minimum mortality temperature) as the reference temperature, extreme heat (defined as ambient daily maximum temperature reaching 33 °C) was associated with a strong increase in all-cause mortality (odds ratio (OR): 1.21, 95% CI: 1.17-1.25) and disease-specific mortality from Alzheimer's disease and dementia (OR: 1.67, 95% CI: 1.48-1.88), COPD (OR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.12-1.67), diabetes (OR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.06-1.70), and myocardial infarction (OR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.10-1.44). Indoor temperatures above 24 °C were found to be critical for mortality. The population most vulnerable to heat included older adults (≥75 years), unmarried individuals, people with a low education level, older women with low neighbourhood socioeconomic position, and men under 75 years old with low socioeconomic position. Overall, the risk of heat-related all-cause mortality in 2009-2016 was lower than that in 2003-2008. The decrease was significantly stronger in the region where cantonal HHAPs were implemented. This study provides important information for planning targeted and effective measures to reduce heat-related health risks in Switzerland. It demonstrates that HHAPs contribute to reducing heat-related mortality, although they may not reach the high-risk population of individuals with low socioeconomic position. Future prevention efforts should also target the less privileged population, including people younger than 75 years.

Forest canopy cover affects microclimate buffering during an extreme heat event

Increasing temperatures and extreme heat episodes have become more common with climate change. While forests are known to buffer increasing temperatures (relative to non-forested areas), whether this buffering is maintained under extreme temperature events is relatively unknown. Here we assess whether forests continue to buffer microclimate (specifically temperatures) during an extreme heat event: the Pacific Northwest (PNW) heat dome in June 2021. We use a combination of ground-based and regional climate data and find that forest understories were 3 °C cooler than a clear-cut area and 4 °C cooler than regional temperatures during the PNW heat dome. By examining forests with different levels of canopy cover we also found that the buffering capacity of forests is greater under denser canopies even under extreme heat events. Additionally, we found vertical variation in thermal buffering, with the greatest amount of buffering at the surface of the forest floor. Overall, our findings suggest that temperate coastal forests, that are known to buffer average temperatures, can also act as microclimate buffers during extreme heat events like the heat dome that occurred in the PNW in 2021. This could be good news for forest dwelling organisms that are sensitive to such extreme heat events.

Ten tips on how to care for your CKD patients in episodes of extreme heat.

Climate change is responsible for ≈75% of extreme heat events throughout the world. Heat events are associated with an increased risk for acute kidney injury, which contributes to the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular events. Patients with CKD are especially vulnerable to heat stress for a variety of reasons. A disproportionate percentage of patients with CKD live in poverty; experience homelessness, mental illness or disabilities; work outside or are elderly, all demographics that overlap with populations most susceptible to episodes of extreme heat. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that exposure to episodes of extreme heat can lead to the progression of CKD and increases morbidity and mortality. Given these concerns, clinicians must be prepared to promptly recognize complications of heat in CKD patients and to help patients appropriately acclimate. We propose the following tips for clinicians to effectively care for their CKD patients during extreme heat days.

Understanding thermal justice and systemic cooling poverty from the margins: intersectional perspectives from Rio de Janeiro

ABSTRACT Heatwaves, which are escalating in frequency, duration and intensity, have prompted governments worldwide to issue vital health warnings to protect populations. These include urging individuals to stay cool, hydrated, avoid direct sun exposure and minimise strenuous activities. Regrettably, a significant segment of the population faces substantial challenges in accessing these crucial recommendations due to a range of issues termed “systemic cooling poverty”. Systemic cooling poverty encompasses intricate layers of physical, social and intangible infrastructural deficiencies, impeding the provision of essential services necessary to ensure thermal safety during extreme heat episodes. Through an intersectional mixed-method examination, this study brings empirical evidence of the structural factors that exacerbate inequalities in attaining thermal safety among the African–Brazilian community, LGBTQI+ and disabled, living in two favelas in Rio de Janeiro. By shedding light on these lived experiences of cooling poverty, we contribute to the understanding of targeted interventions and policy measures that can alleviate the impacts of extreme heat and safeguard public health and well-being as temperatures rise.

Heat-Related Emergency Department Visits - United States, May-September 2023.

Unprecedented heat waves can affect all persons, but some are more sensitive to the effects of heat, including children and adults with underlying health conditions, pregnant women, and outdoor workers. Many regions of the United States experienced record-breaking high temperatures in 2023, with populations exposed to extremely high temperatures for prolonged periods. CDC examined emergency department (ED) visits associated with heat-related illness (HRI) from the National Syndromic Surveillance Program and compared daily HRI ED visit rates during the warm-season months (May-September) of 2023 with those during 2018-2022. In the 2023 warm-season months, daily HRI ED visit rates peaked in several regions and remained elevated for a prolonged duration. More males than females sought care in EDs for HRI, especially males aged 18-64 years. CDC issued multiple public health alerts using the Epidemic Information Exchange system to bring attention to increases in ED utilization for HRI. Deaths and illnesses associated with heat exposure are a continuing public health concern as climate change results in longer, hotter, and more frequent episodes of extreme heat. Near real-time monitoring of weather conditions and adverse health outcomes can guide public health practitioners' timing of risk communication and implementation of prevention measures associated with extreme heat.

Effect of heatwaves on urban sea breeze, heat island intensity, and outdoor thermo-hygrometric comfort in Rome (Italy)

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of heatwaves on sea breeze, urban heat island intensity, and outdoor thermo-hygrometric comfort analysing ground-based remote sensing and in-situ meteorological measurements collected in a Mediterranean coastal metropolitan area (Rome, Italy) during the summer of 2022. The dataset (01 May - 31 August 2022) has been divided into heatwaves and not-heatwaves days to highlight the distinctive features of extreme heat episodes. Furthermore, the year 2022 was compared to 2020, the latter having been characterised by temperatures in line with the last two-decades.The heatwaves do not significantly affect the onset time and the duration of sea breeze, while its cooling effect intensifies during the heatwaves. The urban heat island intensity (UHII) is evaluated by computing the hourly-averaged air temperature difference between two stations, one in the urban centre and the other in rural surroundings. Although the daily-averaged UHII does not show significant differences among the years under investigation and the subsets, marked differences can be identified in the urban heat island daily cycle. In fact, during daytime the highest temperatures are detected in rural inland areas while, at night, the city experiences higher temperatures, especially during the heatwaves. Finally, the Mediterranean outdoor comfort index suggests that a heatwave seems to be a not sufficient condition for human thermo-hygrometric stress, even if stronger discomfort is experienced during heatwaves.

Microclimate of Tropical Paddy Rice as Influenced by Water Management

The effects of water management on the microclimate of paddy rice under tropical field conditions have not been well documented. This study investigates changes in the microclimate of paddy rice and its influence on rice yield under different water management. Field experiments were conducted for two cropping seasons in Nueva Ecija, Philippines. The treatments were continuous flooding (CF), saturated soil condition (SSC), and safe alternate wetting and drying (AWD). Significant changes in the rice microclimate were observed during the dry season, wherein drying the field was possible. A general trend showed lower soil, meristem, and canopy temperatures in AWD and SSC than in CF. Consistently, significantly lower temperatures ranging from 22.64‒28.13 °C were observed during the reproductive stage and 23.03‒28.47 °C during the maturity stage under water-saving techniques compared to CF across both daytime and nighttime. In all growth stages, the canopy temperature was significantly lower in AWD by 0.36‒0.48 °C at nighttime compared to other treatments. However, there was a shift of higher canopy humidity (> 80) in AWD (albeit not significant with CF) in both daytime and nighttime. Seasonal variations of the canopy temperature and humidity at nighttime showed lower in the dry season than the wet season. Under normal conditions, differences in microclimate between CF and AWD did not significantly affect the grain yield despite the water savings of the latter by 78%. The findings of this study underscore AWD's role in lowering the microclimate of the rice plant when there are extreme heat episodes in a tropical environment.

Evolution of land surface feedbacks on extreme heat: Adapting existing coupling metrics to a changing climate

Episodes of extreme heat are increasing globally, and dry land surface states have been implicated as an amplifying factor in several recent heat waves. Metrics used to quantify land-heat coupling in the current climate, relating sensible heat fluxes to near-surface air temperature, are applied to multimodel simulations of the past, present, and future climate to investigate the evolving role of land–atmosphere feedbacks in cases of extreme heat. Two related metrics are used: one that describes the climatological state of land-heat coupling and one that gives an episodic estimate of land feedbacks, here defined as the metric’s value at the 90th percentile of monthly mean temperatures. To provide robust statistics, seasonal multimodel medians are calculated, with the significance of changes determined by the degree of model consensus on the sign of the change. The climatological land-heat coupling mirrors other metrics of land–atmosphere interaction, peaking in transition regions between arid and humid climates. Changes from preindustrial to recent historical conditions are dominated by decreased land surface controls on extreme heat, mainly over the broad areas that have experienced expanded or intensified agriculture over the last 150 years. Future projections for increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations show a waning of areas of weakened land-heat feedbacks, while areas of increasing feedbacks expand over monsoon regions and much of the midlatitudes. The episodic land-heat metric is based on anomalies, which creates a quandary: how should anomalies be defined in a nonstationary climate? When the episodic coupling is defined relative to the means and variances for each period, a broadly similar evolution to the climatological metric is found, with historically dominant decreases giving way to widespread moderate increases in future climate scenarios. Basing all statistics on preindustrial norms results in huge increases in the coupling metric, showing its sensitivity to the definition of anomalies. When the metric is reformulated to isolate the impact of changing land and temperature variability, the tropics and Western Europe emerge as regions with enhanced land feedbacks on heatwaves, while desert areas and much of the remainder of the midlatitudes show reduced land-heat coupling.

The Role of Cooling Centers in Protecting Vulnerable Individuals from Extreme Heat.

The Role of Cooling Centers in Protecting Vulnerable Individuals from Extreme Heat.

The effect of increasing surface cover vegetation on urban microclimate and energy demand for building heating and cooling

The study examines the potential effects of adding vegetation to an urban neighborhood in Tel Aviv on the microclimate, and subsequently on the potential for cooling by night ventilation and on energy consumption for heating and air conditioning. Computer simulation was employed to first generate modified weather files that account for urban effects of location, surface cover and density in different building configurations. These files were then used to assess the climatic cooling potential (CCP) by night ventilation and as inputs for detailed computer simulation of building energy performance. The microclimate model simulation indicates that elevated urban night-time temperatures will increase summer cooling loads relative to the reference rural site, but this penalty will be more than offset by reduced winter heating loads, resulting in a net decrease of between 2 and 7% in electricity use for heating and cooling (depending on building characteristics). The main impact of the urban heat island in this case is the reduction in the potential for cooling by night ventilation, which is almost completely absent in the summer months. Consequently, the urban climate of Tel Aviv may increase the prevalence of air conditioning use and will make buildings more vulnerable to potential loss of electric power in case of shortages or blackouts during episodes of extreme heat. Implementing a strategy of extensive planting, so that a green surface fraction of 0.5 is obtained, results in a mean annual temperature reduction of about 0.3 °C and an energy saving relative to the current condition of about 2–3%.

Climatic and stand drivers of forest resistance to recent bark beetle disturbance in European coniferous forests.

Bark beetle infestation is a major driver of tree mortality that may be critical for forest persistence under climate change and the forecasted increase of extreme heat and drought episodes. Under this context, the environmental position of host tree populations within the species' climatic niche (central vs. marginal populations) is expected to be a determinant in the dynamics of insect-host systems. Here, we analyzed the recent patterns of bark beetle disturbance and forest resistance across European coniferous forests during the 2010-2018 period. We obtained bark beetle attack and tree mortality data from successive continental-scale forest condition surveys on 130 plots including five host trees and five bark beetle species, and characterized the climatic niche of each species. Then, we analyzed the overall forest resistance and species-specific responses, in terms of bark beetle attack and induced tree mortality, in relation to the distance to the niche optimum of both host tree and beetle species, previous drought events, and plot characteristics. Regional patterns of recent disturbance revealed that forests in central, north, and east of Europe could be at risk under the attack of multivoltine bark beetle species. We found that overall forest resistance to beetle attack was determined by several driving factors, which varied among species responses. Particularly, the environmental position of the affected forest within the host and beetle species' climatic niche and plot characteristics mediated the influence of drought on the resistance to beetle attack. In turn, forest resistance to induced tree mortality was determined exclusively by the maximum intensity and duration of drought events. Our findings highlight the importance of disturbance interactions and suggest that the joint influence of drought events and bark beetle disturbance will threaten the persistence of European coniferous forests, even in those tree populations close to their species' climatic optimum.

Heat Waves and Innovation in Air Conditioning in the United States

Abstract This study investigates whether extreme heat episodes (heat waves) have contributed to the development of air conditioning (AC) technology in the United States. To this end, we use weather data to identify days at which heat and relative humidity were above levels comfortable to the human body, and match these with patent data at the county level for nearly a hundred years. We find that in the 2 years after a county has experienced extreme heat AC patents increase. Overall, average extreme heat exposure results in an increase of 7.5% greater innovation. We find no similar increase in the frequency of non-AC-related patent filings, and therefore conclude that heat waves result in innovation targeting their mitigation. Significance Statement The possibility of more extreme heat because of global warming has raised the question of whether society will be able to invent new technology to adapt to the likely greater frequency and severity of heat waves. The purpose of this paper is to consider the development of air conditioning in the United States and investigate whether extreme heat has indeed driven innovation in cooling technology. It is shown that, in counties with episodes of extreme heat, the number of air conditioning patents filed increased in the aftermath of these episodes, but that this increase was short-lived.

Land‐Atmosphere Interactions Exacerbated the Drought and Heatwave Over Northern Europe During Summer 2018

AbstractThe 2018 drought and heatwave over northern Europe were exceptional, with unprecedented forest fires in Sweden, searing heat in Germany and water restrictions in England. Monthly, daily, and hourly data from ERA5, verified with in situ soil water content and surface flux measurements, are examined to investigate the subseasonal‐to‐seasonal progression of the event and the diurnal evolution of tropospheric profiles over Britain to quantify the anomalous land surface contribution to heat and drought. Data suggest the region entered an unprecedented condition of becoming a “hot spot” for land‐atmosphere coupling, which exacerbated the heatwave across much of northern Europe. Land‐atmosphere feedbacks were prompted by unusually low soil water over wide areas, which generated moisture limitations on surface latent heat fluxes, suppressing cloud formation, increasing surface net radiation, and driving temperatures higher during several multiweek episodes of extreme heat. We find consistent evidence in field data and reanalysis of a threshold of soil water content at most locations, below which surface fluxes and daily maximum temperatures become hypersensitive to declining soil water. Similar recent heatwaves over various parts of Europe in 2003, 2010, and 2019, combined with dire climate change projections, suggest such events could be on the increase. Land‐atmosphere feedbacks may play an increasingly important role in exacerbating extremes, but could also contribute to their predictability on subseasonal time scales.

Global warming, heat-related illnesses, and the dermatologist.

Global warming, provoked by the greenhouse effect of high levels of atmospheric gases (most notably carbon dioxide and methane), directly threatens human health and survival. Individuals vary in their capacity to tolerate episodes of extreme heat. Because skin is the organ tasked with heat dissipation, it is important for dermatologists to be versed in the physiology of cutaneous heat dissipation and cognizant of clinical settings in which the skin’s thermoregulatory responses may be impaired. When the external temperature is lower than that of the skin, the skin releases internal heat through direct thermal exchange with the environment, a process that is aided by an expansion of cutaneous blood flow and eccrine sweating. Cooling through the evaporation of sweat is effective even when the external temperature exceeds that of skin. Many factors, including environmental and physiological (e.g., age and sex), and pathological (e.g., preexisting illnesses, disorders of eccrine function, and medications) considerations, affect the skin’s capacity to thermoregulate. Identification of individuals at increased risk for heat-related morbidity and mortality will become increasingly important in the care of patients.

Overheating in Schools: Factors Determining Children’s Perceptions of Overall Comfort Indoors

Climate change is raising the length and intensity of the warm season in the academic year, with a very significant impact on indoor classroom conditions. Increasingly frequent episodes of extreme heat are having an adverse effect on school activities, whose duration may have to be shortened or pace slackened. Fitting facilities with air conditioning does not always solve the problem and may even contribute to discomfort or worsen health conditions, often as a result of insufficient ventilation. Users have traditionally adopted measures to adapt to these situations, particularly in warm climates where mechanical refrigeration is absent or unavailable. Implementation of such measures or of natural ventilation is not always possible or their efficacy is limited in school environments, however. Such constraints, especially in a context where reasonable energy use and operating costs are a primary concern, inform the need to identify the factors that contribute to users’ perceptions of comfort. This study deploys a post-occupancy strategy combined with participatory action to empower occupants as agents actively engaging in their own comfort. It addresses user-identified classroom comfort parameters potentially applicable in the design and layout of thermally suitable spaces meriting occupant acceptance.

Extreme heat episodes and risk of preterm birth in California, 2005–2013

BackgroundPreterm birth is a leading cause of infant morbidity and mortality. Identifying potentially modifiable triggers toward the end of gestation, such as extreme heat, can improve understanding of the role of acute stress on early deliveries and inform warning systems. In this study we examined the association between extreme heat, variously defined during the last week of gestation, and risk of preterm birth among mothers in California. MethodsWe created a population-based cohort comprised of 1,967,300 mothers who had live, singleton births in California, from May through September 2005–2013. Daily temperature data estimated at the maternal zip code of residence was used to create 12 definitions of extreme heat with varying relative temperatures (75th, 90th, 95th, and 98th percentiles) and durations (at least 2, 3, or 4 consecutive days). We estimated risk of preterm birth (<37 gestational weeks) in relation to exposure to extreme heat during the last week of gestation with multi-level Cox proportional hazard regression models, adjusting for maternal characteristics, sex of neonate, and seasonality. We also included randomly generated data, SAS code, and estimates for reproducibility purposes. ResultsApproximately 7% of the cohort had a preterm birth. For all definitions of extreme heat, the risk of preterm birth was consistently higher among mothers who experienced an extreme heat episode during their last week of gestation. Hazard ratios ranged from 1.008 (95% CI: 0.997, 1.021) to 1.128 (95% CI: 1.052, 1.210), with increasing associations as the relative temperature and duration of extreme heat episode increased. ConclusionThis study adds to the previous literature by considering multiple definitions of extreme heat and applying a time-to-event framework. Findings suggest that acute exposure to extreme heat during the last week of gestation may trigger an earlier delivery. Implementing heat warning systems targeted toward pregnant women may improve birth outcomes.

Potential climatic influence on maximum stand carrying capacity for 15 Mediterranean coniferous and broadleaf species

Climate change projections for the Mediterranean basin predict a continuous increase in extreme drought and heat episodes, which will affect forest dynamics, structure and composition. Understanding how climate influences the maximum size-density relationship (MSDR) is therefore critical to designing adaptive silvicultural guidelines based on the potential stand carrying capacity of tree species. With this aim, data from the Third Spanish National Forest Inventory (3NFI) and WorldClim databases were used to analyze climate-related variations of the maximum stand carrying capacity for 15 species from the Pinus, Fagus and Quercus genera. First, basic MSDR were fitted using linear quantile regression and observed size-density data from monospecific 3NFI plots. Reference values for maximum stocking, expressed in terms of the Maximum Stand Density Index (SDImax), were estimated by species. Then, climate-dependent MSDR models including 35 annual and seasonal climatic variables were fitted. The best climate-dependent models, based on the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) index, were used to determine the climatic drivers affecting MSDR, to analyze general and species-specific patterns and to quantify the impact of climate on maximum stand carrying capacity. The results showed that all the selected climate-dependent models improved the goodness of fit over the basic models. Among the climatic variables, spring and summer maximum temperatures were found to be key drivers affecting MSDR for the species studied. A common trend was also found across species, linking warmer and drier conditions to smaller SDImax values. Based on projected climate scenarios, this suggests potential reductions in maximum stocking for these species. In this study, a new index was proposed, the Q index, for evaluating the impact of climate on maximum stand carrying capacity. Our findings highlight the importance of using specific climatic variables to better characterize how they affect MSDR. The models presented in this study will allow us to better explain interactions between climate and MSDR while also providing more precise estimates concerning maximum stocking for different Mediterranean coniferous and broadleaf tree species.

Understanding the Genetic Basis of Spike Fertility to Improve Grain Number, Harvest Index, and Grain Yield in Wheat Under High Temperature Stress Environments.

Moderate heat stress accompanied by short episodes of extreme heat during the post-anthesis stage is common in most US wheat growing areas and causes substantial yield losses. Sink strength (grain number) is a key yield limiting factor in modern wheat varieties. Increasing spike fertility (SF) and improving the partitioning of assimilates can optimize sink strength which is essential to improve wheat yield potential under a hot and humid environment. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) allows identification of novel quantitative trait loci (QTLs) associated with SF and other partitioning traits that can assist in marker assisted breeding. In this study, GWAS was performed on a soft wheat association mapping panel (SWAMP) comprised of 236 elite lines using 27,466 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The panel was phenotyped in two heat stress locations over 3 years. GWAS identified 109 significant marker-trait associations (MTAs) (p ≤ 9.99 x 10−5) related to eight phenotypic traits including SF (a major component of grain number) and spike harvest index (SHI, a major component of grain weight). MTAs detected on chromosomes 1B, 3A, 3B, and 5A were associated with multiple traits and are potentially important targets for selection. More than half of the significant MTAs (60 out of 109) were found in genes encoding different types of proteins related to metabolism, disease, and abiotic stress including heat stress. These MTAs could be potential targets for further validation study and may be used in marker-assisted breeding for improving wheat grain yield under post-anthesis heat stress conditions. This is the first study to identify novel QTLs associated with SF and SHI which represent the major components of grain number and grain weight, respectively, in wheat.

Heat waves, ambient temperature, and risk of myocardial infarction: an ecological study in the Community of Madrid.

Episodes of extreme heat are associated with increased morbidity and mortality in chronically-ill patients but there is a need to clearly establish the relationship between extreme heat and myocardial infarction. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between the incidence of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and maximum temperature, in particular during heat wave alert periods (HWAP). The population studied consisted of confirmed STEMI cases registered in the Infarction Code of the Community of Madrid between June 2013 and June 2017. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) adjusted for trend and seasonality and 95%CI were estimated using time series regression models. A total of 6465 cases of STEMI were included; 212 cases occurred during the 66-day period of HWAP and 1816 cases during the nonalert summer period (IRR, 1.14; 95%CI, 0.96-1.35). The minimum incidence rate was observed at the maximum temperature of 18°C. Warmer temperatures were not associated with a higher incidence (IRR,1.03; 95%CI, 0.76-1.41), whereas colder temperatures were significantly associated with an increased risk (IRR, 1.25; 95%CI, 1.02-1.54). No effect modification was observed by age or sex. We did not find an increased risk of STEMI during the 66 days of HWAP in the Community of Madrid between June 2013 and June 2017. However, an increased risk was found during colder temperatures. No extra health resources for STEMI management are required during periods of extreme heat, but should be considered during periods of cold weather.

Extreme heat episodes, wildfires, and risk of preterm delivery in California, 2005-2013

Extreme heat episodes, wildfires, and risk of preterm delivery in California, 2005-2013