Extreme Coastal Water Levels Research Articles

FUTURE CHANGES IN EXTREME WAVES AND THEIR SEASONALITY IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA

Climate change impacts threaten coastal areas all over the world, driven by increasing extreme sea levels. With higher sea surface and air temperatures, continued sealevel rise and high exposure and vulnerability of about 20 million people living in low-lying coastal areas, climate change affects the Mediterranean Sea significantly more than the world average and is therefore defined as a vulnerability hotspot (Ali, 2022). Projected changes in waves vary on a regional and local scale and play a crucial role in future extreme coastal water levels and coastal impacts. Several past studies used Global Climate Models (GCM) with coarse spatial resolution to study the future changes of wave climate. However, wave models driven by high-resolution dynamicallydownscaled surface winds from Regional Climate Models RCM) allow an enhanced characterization of wave climate at local scale, which is fundamental for coastal impact assessment and adaptation studies. Here we present the analysis of extreme wave events and their seasonality using a state-of-the-art regional ensemble of wave climate projections developed with the numerical wave model Wavewatch III forced by surface wind field data of 17 EURO CORDEX GCM-RCMs.

Quantifying Mechanisms Responsible for Extreme Coastal Water Levels and Flooding during Severe Tropical Cyclone Harold in Tonga, Southwest Pacific

The South Pacific region is characterised by steep shelves and fringing coral reef islands. The lack of wide continental shelves that can dissipate waves makes Pacific Island countries vulnerable to large waves that can enhance extreme total water levels triggered by tropical cyclones (TCs). In this study, hindcasts of the waves and storm surge induced by severe TC Harold in 2020 on Tongatapu, Tonga’s capital island, were examined using the state-of-the-art hydrodynamic and wave models ADCIRC and SWAN. The contributions of winds, atmospheric pressure, waves, and wave-radiation-stress-induced setup to extreme total water levels were analysed by running the models separately and two-way coupled. The atmospheric pressure deficit contributed uniformly to the total water levels (~25%), while the wind surge was prominent over the shallow shelf (more than 75%). Wave setup became significant at locations with narrow fringing reefs on the western side (more than 75%). Tides were dominant on the leeward coasts of the island (50–75%). Storm surge obtained from the coupled run without tide was comparable with the observation. The wave contribution to extreme total water levels and inundation was analysed using XBEACH in non-hydrostatic mode. The model (XBEACH) was able to reproduce coastal inundation when compared to the observed satellite imagery after the event on a particular coastal segment severely impacted by coastal flooding induced by TC Harold. The coupled ADCIRC+SWAN underestimated total water levels nearshore on the reef flat and consequently inundation extent as infragravity waves and swash motion are not resolved by these models. The suite of models (ADCIRC+SWAN+XBEACH) used in this study can be used to support the Tonga Meteorological Service Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System.

Coastal Flooding Caused by Extreme Coastal Water Level at the World Heritage Historic Keta City (Ghana, West Africa)

Like low-lying sandy coasts around the world, the Ghanaian coast is experiencing increasingly frequent coastal flooding due to climate change, putting important socioeconomic infrastructure and people at risk. Our study assesses the major factors contributing to extreme coastal water levels (ECWLs) from 1994 to 2015. ECWLs are categorized into low, moderate, and severe levels corresponding to the 30th, 60th, and 98th percentiles, respectively. Using these three levels over the Pleiades satellite-derived digital elevation model topography, potential flood extent zones are mapped. ECWLs have the potential to flood more than 40% of the study area, including socioeconomically important sites such as tourist beach resorts, Cape St. Paul lighthouse, and Fort Prinzenstein. In this study, all coastal flooding events recorded by the municipality of Keta fall within the 98th percentile category. Our results show a gradual increase in the frequency of flooding over the years. Flooding events are caused by a compound effect of the tide, sea level anomaly, waves, and atmospheric conditions. Finally, while wave run-up is the major contributor to coastal flooding, the tide is the one varying most, which facilitates a simple early warning system based on waves and tide but adds uncertainty and complicates long-term predictability.

Estimating coastal slope of sandy beach from ICESat-2: a case study in Texas

Coastal slope is a fundamental land characteristic that can influence the hydrodynamic and morphological processes, which is the essential parameter to calculate the wave setup and wave run up for further estimating extreme coastal water levels. Slope information of coastal zones also plays a key role in estimating the coastline erosion and evaluating the coastal vulnerability under sea level rise. However, accurate estimates of coastal slopes are currently limited, especially over sparsely populated and remote areas. The recent ICESat-2 photon-counting lidar provides unprecedented along-track dense and accurate height measurements in coastal zones. This study aims to demonstrate the potential of ICESat-2 measurements to estimate coastal slope of sandy beach at a large scale, and the proposed method is tested in Texas, USA. The validation with local airborne lidar data (with an average slope of 0.023 in Texas) indicates that, the ICESat-2 derived coastal slopes (0.026) have much better accuracy than current large-scale coastal slopes (0.0032) derived from SRTM and MERIT DEMs. With globally covered ICESat-2 datasets, this method can be expanded to estimate coastal slopes even at a global scale.

Towards a pan-European coastal flood awareness system: Skill of extreme sea-level forecasts from the Copernicus Marine Service

European coasts are regularly exposed to severe storms that trigger extreme water-level conditions, leading to coastal flooding and erosion. Early Warning Systems (EWS) are important tools for the increased preparedness and response against coastal flood events, hence greatly reducing associated risks. With this objective, a proof-of-concept for a European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) was developed in the framework of the H2020 ECFAS project, which capitalizes on the Copernicus products. In this context, this manuscript evaluates for the first time the capability of the current Copernicus Marine operational ocean models to forecast extreme coastal water levels and hence to feed coastal flood awareness applications at European scale. A methodology is developed to focus the assessment on storm-driven extreme sea level events (EEs) from tide-gauge records. For the detected EEs, the event peak representation is validated, and the impact of forecast lead time is evaluated. Results show satisfactory performance but a general underprediction of peak magnitudes of 10% for water levels and 18% for surges across the detected EEs. In average, the models are capable of independently flagging 76% of the observed EEs. Forecasts show limited lead time impact up to a 4-day lead time, demonstrating the suitability of the systems for early warning applications. Finally, by separating the surge and tidal contributions to the extremes, the potential sources of the prediction misfits are discussed and consequent recommendations for the evolution of the Copernicus Marine Service forecasting models towards coastal flooding applications are provided.

Extreme Coastal Water Levels Evolution at Dakar (Senegal, West Africa)

Increasingly, it is reported that the coastline of the Dakar region is affected by coastal flooding due to extreme water levels during wave events. Here, we quantify the extreme coastal water levels as well as the different factors contributing to coastal flooding during the period 1994–2015. Severe water levels reach values of 1.78 m and increase by 8.4 mm/year. The time spent above this threshold has already increased by 1.7 over the study period and will increase by 2100 to 8 times with 0.4 m mean sea level rise and up to 20 times with 0.8 m in the IPCC low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, respectively. Tide is the main contributor to the extremes when combined with large wave runup, due to wave breaking which contributes to 38% of the increase in extreme events while sea level rises to 44%. Our results show that because of its prominent location, Dakar region is affected by waves coming from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres with contrasted evolutions: wave runup events increase faster (7 mm/year) during austral winter due to a maximum of the South Atlantic storm activity, and have a decreasing trend (−3 mm/year) during boreal winter (December, January, February) driven by the evolution of corresponding climate modes.

Extreme coastal water levels with potential flooding risk at the low-lying Saint Louis historic city, Senegal (West Africa)

In a context of global warming characterized by a mean sea level rise and extreme meteorological events, the study of the causes for coastal flooding is essential to protect communities and ecosystems. Densely urbanized, and rather unprotected cities in developing countries such as the historic Saint Louis city in Senegal are particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding and sea hazards. From satellite-derived high resolution DEM and global ocean reanalyses, here we quantify the extreme coastal water level in order to identify the neighborhoods and places of particular socio-economical interest of Saint-Louis potentially vulnerable to flooding. The results reveal that the most severe levels have the potential to flood up to almost half of this low-lying river mouth plain. Social, economic and heritage stakes are exposed, and the artisanal fisherman district of Gueth Ndar, is particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding because of its low elevation and situation on the sand barrier. The co-occurrence of high tides and wave-induced runup contributes most to ECWL but they do not present a significant trend over the study period. The results show that over the period 1994-2015, potential flood risk increased by nearly one day per year, primarily due to sea level rise, sounding a warning signal to take countermeasures to protect communities and infrastructure.

Assessing the Role of Extreme Mediterranean Events on Coastal River Outlet Dynamics

River mouths are highly dynamic environments responding very rapidly to changes in wave energy or river floods. While the morphological response during floods or during marine storm events has been widely documented in the literature, little is known about the mechanisms acting during the co-occurrence of fluvial and marine hazards. This concomitance of river flood and marine storm is quite common in the western Mediterranean Sea, and was the case for the Gloria event, considered to be the most extreme event in recent decades. During this event, monitoring of hydrodynamics and morphological evolution was implemented, making it possible to better understand the impact of concomitant marine storm and fluvial flood during an extreme meteorological event on spit breaching of a small Mediterranean river mouth. Monitoring using a combination of high-resolution hydrodynamic measurements, topographic and bathymetric surveys, and sediment cores was used before, during, and after the storm “Gloria”. The results suggest an amplification of the morphological impact of the events and a different morphogenic response than if each of the events had acted independently on the system. The marine storm, occurring first, weakened the spit and initiated its breaching, which was continued by the extreme fluvial flood, thus leading to the complete destruction of the mouth. The destruction of the spit acted as a sediment source for subaqueous large delta deposition amounting to 50% of the total volume. The contribution of the river, estimated at 30%, was quite low for an exceptional event, showing the importance of locating rainfall in a catchment area controlled by a dam. For this event, extreme morphological evolution was observed, as well as the importance of water levels in the river mouth, which probably increased flood hazards, demonstrating the importance of including the compounding effect of extreme coastal water levels in river flood risk management.

A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping

Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are widely expected to exacerbate coastal hazards such as episodic coastal flooding. This study presents global-scale potential coastal overtopping estimates, which account for not only the effects of sea level rise and storm surge, but also for wave runup at exposed open coasts. Here we find that the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours have increased by almost 50% over the last two decades. A first-pass future assessment indicates that globally aggregated annual overtopping hours will accelerate faster than the global mean sea-level rise itself, with a clearly discernible increase occurring around mid-century regardless of climate scenario. Under RCP 8.5, the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours by the end of the 21st-century is projected to be up to 50 times larger compared to present-day. As sea level continues to rise, more regions around the world are projected to become exposed to coastal overtopping.

Sea level rise and coastal flooding threaten affordable housing

The frequency of coastal floods around the United States has risen sharply over the last few decades, and rising seas point to further future acceleration. Residents of low-lying affordable housing, who tend to be low-income persons living in old and poor quality structures, are especially vulnerable. To elucidate the equity implications of sea level rise (SLR), we provide the first nationwide assessment of recent and future risks to affordable housing from SLR and coastal flooding in the United States. By using high-resolution building footprints and probability distributions for both local flood heights and SLR, we identify the coastal states and cities where affordable housing—both subsidized and market-driven—is most at risk of flooding. We provide estimates of both the expected number of affordable housing units exposed to extreme coastal water levels and of how often those units may be at risk of flooding. The number of affordable units exposed in the United States is projected to more than triple by 2050. New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts have the largest number of units exposed to extreme water levels both in absolute terms and as a share of their affordable housing stock. Some top-ranked cities could experience numerous coastal floods reaching higher than affordable housing sites each year. As the top 20 cities account for 75% of overall exposure, limited, strategic and city-level efforts may be able to address most of the challenge of preserving coastal-area affordable housing stock.

Modeling the seasonality of extreme coastal water levels with mixtures of circular probability density functions

Understanding when floods occur is fundamental to reducing flood risk, yet depictions of flood seasonality rarely address two key issues: multiple seasons and the periodicity of seasonal data. We analyze the timing of extreme water levels at 47 presently operational tide gages located along the US coastlines with periods of record ranging from 29 to 118 years. Because the dates of extreme water levels are naturally multimodal periodic data, we model them with weighted mixtures of circular von Mises distributions. Fitting probability density functions on the circumference of a circle allow periodicity to be handled implicitly, while mixture models provide insight into the timing and importance of the various modes in the overall distribution. To our knowledge, this is the first application of circular statistical modeling to coastal water levels. We find clear spatial patterns in extreme water level seasonality along the US coasts. Gages located on the West Coast experience their main flood season in the winter and a secondary season in the summer, while those on the East and Gulf coasts have more uniform distributions, fewer seasons, and maximum flood likelihood in the late summer. Analysis of water level after removing tides and sea level change reduces the importance of secondary and higher seasons and yields greater uniformity compared with raw water levels. Finally, peaks-over-threshold datasets reveal secondary flood seasons that are obscured in annual maxima series, which may become increasingly impactful as sea levels rise. These findings are pertinent to coastal infrastructure design, risk sharing via financial instruments, and emergency preparedness and response.

New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding

Most estimates of global mean sea-level rise this century fall below 2 m. This quantity is comparable to the positive vertical bias of the principle digital elevation model (DEM) used to assess global and national population exposures to extreme coastal water levels, NASA’s SRTM. CoastalDEM is a new DEM utilizing neural networks to reduce SRTM error. Here we show – employing CoastalDEM—that 190 M people (150–250 M, 90% CI) currently occupy global land below projected high tide lines for 2100 under low carbon emissions, up from 110 M today, for a median increase of 80 M. These figures triple SRTM-based values. Under high emissions, CoastalDEM indicates up to 630 M people live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100, and up to 340 M for mid-century, versus roughly 250 M at present. We estimate one billion people now occupy land less than 10 m above current high tide lines, including 230 M below 1 m.

A multidisciplinary coastal vulnerability assessment for local government focused on ecosystems, Santa Barbara area, California

Incorporating coastal ecosystems in climate adaptation planning is needed to maintain the well-being of both natural and human systems. Our vulnerability study uses a multidisciplinary approach to evaluate climate change vulnerability of an urbanized coastal community that could serve as a model approach for communities worldwide, particularly in similar Mediterranean climates. We synthesize projected changes in climate, coastal erosion and flooding, watershed runoff and impacts to two important coastal ecosystems, sandy beaches and coastal salt marshes. Using downscaled climate models along with other regional models, we find that temperature, extreme heat events, and sea level are expected to increase in the future, along with more intense rainfall events, despite a negligible change in annual rainfall. Consequently, more droughts are expected but the magnitude of larger flood events will increase. Associated with the continuing rise of mean sea level, extreme coastal water levels will occur with increasingly greater magnitudes and frequency. Severe flooding will occur for both natural (wetlands, beaches) and built environments (airport, harbor, freeway, and residential areas). Adaptation actions can reduce the impact of rising sea level, which will cause losses of sandy beach zones and salt marsh habitats that support the highest biodiversity in these ecosystems, including regionally rare and endangered species, with substantial impacts occurring by 2050. Providing for inland transgression of coastal habitats, effective sediment management, reduced beach grooming and removal of shoreline armoring are adaptations that would help maintain coastal ecosystems and the beneficial services they provide.

Extreme Coastal Water Levels Exacerbate Fluvial Flood Hazards in Northwestern Europe

Compound flooding, such as the co-occurrence of fluvial floods and extreme coastal water levels (CWL), may lead to significant impacts in densely-populated Low Elevation Coastal Zones. They may overstrain disaster management owing to the co-occurrence of inundation from rivers and the sea. Recent studies are limited by analyzing joint dependence between river discharge and either CWL or storm surges, and little is known about return levels of compound flooding, accounting for the covariance between drivers. Here, we assess the compound flood severity and identify hotspots for northwestern Europe during 1970–2014, using a newly developed Compound Hazard Ratio (CHR) that compares the severity of compound flooding associated with extreme CWL with the unconditional T-year fluvial peak discharge. We show that extreme CWL and stronger storms greatly amplify fluvial flood hazards. Our results, based on frequency analyses of observational records during 2013/2014’s winter storm Xaver, reveal that the river discharge of the 50-year compound flood is up to 70% larger, conditioned on the occurrence of extreme CWL, than that of the at-site peak discharge. For this event, nearly half of the stream gauges show increased flood hazards, demonstrating the importance of including the compounding effect of extreme CWL in river flood risk management.

Increased Extreme Coastal Water Levels Due to the Combined Action of Storm Surges and Wind Waves

AbstractThe dependence between extreme storm surges and wind waves is assessed statistically along the global coasts using the outputs of two numerical models consistently forced with the same atmospheric fields. We show that 55% of the world coastlines face compound storm surge wave extremes. Hence, for a given level of probability, neglecting these dependencies leads to underestimating extreme coastal water levels. Dependencies are dominant in midlatitudes and are likely underestimated in the tropics due to limited representation of tropical cyclones. Furthermore, we show that in half of the areas with dependence, the estimated probability of occurrence of coastal extreme water levels increases significantly when it is accounted for. Translated in terms of return periods, this means that along 30% of global coastlines, extreme water levels expected at most once in a century without considering dependence between storm surges and waves become a 1 in 50‐year event.

Estimating Fluvial Discharges coincident with 21st Century Coastal Storms Modeled with CoSMoS

Erikson, L.H.; O'Neill, A.C., and Barnard, P.L., 2018. Estimating fluvial discharges coincident with 21st century coastal storms modeled with CoSMoS. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 791–795. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.On the open coast, flooding is largely driven by tides, storm surge, waves, and in areas near coastal inlets, the magnitude and co-occurrence of high fluvial discharges. Statistical methods are typically used to estimate the individual probability of coastal storm and fluvial discharge occurrences for use in sophisticated flood hazard models. A challenge arises when considering possible future climate changes and the relation between the intensity of extreme coastal water levels and high fluvial discharges.In this study, the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is used to dynamically downscale global climate projections to local-scale storm-driven coastal water levels, including associated fluvial discharges. An efficient approach to derive 21st century projected fluvial discharges for rivers within San Francisco Bay was developed, leveraging a readily-available time-series of projected (2010 – 2100) discharge rates of the predominant river system (the “Delta”). Delta projections were used to estimate flow rates of 8 Bay rivers for the IPCC's CMIP5 RCP4.5 climate scenario. Relationships describing discharge rates, normalized by respective watershed areas, were developed and applied to projected data to generate 21st century fluvial discharge time-series for each river. Results indicate decreasing discharge rates throughout the 21st century with the exception of extreme flows.

Coherence Between Coastal and River Flooding along the California Coast

ABSTRACT Odigie, K.O. and Warrick, J.A., 2018. Coherence between coastal and river flooding along the California coast. Water levels around river mouths are intrinsically determined by sea level and river discharge. If storm-associated coastal water-level anomalies coincide with extreme river discharge, landscapes near river mouths will be flooded by the hydrodynamic interactions of these two water masses. Unfortunately, the temporal relationships between ocean and river water masses are not well understood. The coherence between extreme river discharge and coastal water levels at six California river mouths across different climatic and geographic regions was examined. Data from river gauges, wave buoys, and tide gauges from 2007 to 2014 were integrated to investigate the relationships between extreme river discharge and coastal water levels near the mouths of the Eel, Russian, San Lorenzo, Ventura, Arroyo Trabuco, and San Diego rivers. Results indicate that mean and extreme coastal water levels during e...

How historical information can improve estimation and prediction of extreme coastal water levels: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)

Abstract. The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide-gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativise such outlying observations. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is developed to tackle this issue. We apply this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide-gauge measurements and 8 historical events, the analysis shows that (1) integrating historical information in the analysis greatly reduces statistical uncertainties on return levels (2) Xynthia's water level no longer appears as an outlier, (3) we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data until the end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data until the end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

Neural Network and Harmonic Analysis for Recovering Missing Extreme Water-Level Data during Hurricanes in Florida

Abstract Predictions of extreme coastal water levels are important to coastal engineering design and hazard mitigations in Florida. Annual maximum water levels are often used in frequency analysis of 1% annual chance flood in coastal flood hazard mapping. However, because of the damage to measurement instruments during hurricanes, some annual maximum water levels may be missed, which makes coastal flood hazard analysis difficult. In this study, a technique was developed to use artificial neural network and harmonic analysis for recovering extreme coastal water levels during hurricanes. The total water levels are decomposed into tidal components and storm surge. Tidal components can be derived by harmonic analysis, whereas storm surge can be predicted by neural network modeling on the basis of the observations of local wind speeds and atmospheric pressure. The neural network model uses three-layer feed-forward back-propagation structure with advanced scaled conjugate training algorithm. The method presente...