Extraordinary Floods Research Articles

Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database

Abstract. This paper shows the first systematic dataset of flood episodes referring to the entire Pyrenees massif, named PIRAGUA_flood, which covers the period 1981–2015 (available at http://hdl.handle.net/10261/270351, last access: 21 July 2024). First, the structure of the database is detailed so that it can be reproduced anywhere else in the world, adapting to the specific nature of each situation. Subsequently, the paper addresses the spatial and temporal distribution of flood episodes and events (including trends) that affected the Pyrenees regions of Spain (Catalonia, Aragon, Navarre, the Basque Country), France (Nouvelle-Aquitaine, Occitanie) and Andorra, as well as the massif as a whole, for a given period of time. In the case of the Spanish regions, it was also possible to analyse the compensation payments by the Spanish Insurance Compensation Consortium and the number of deceased. The weather types associated with flood episodes were also classified based on sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height from ERA5. The results show 181 flood events and 154 fatalities, some of which affected more than one region. In the Spanish part of the Pyrenees, between 1996 and 2015, there was a total compensation payout amounting to EUR 142.5 million (2015). The eastern part of the area records more flood events than the western one, with Catalonia being the community that registered the highest number of events, followed by Andorra and Occitanie. Associated weather types are dominated by the southern component flow over the Pyrenees region, with a talweg on the Iberian Peninsula and a depression in the vicinity, either in the Atlantic or in the Mediterranean. In terms of the entire massif, there is a slight positive trend of 0.84 events per decade, driven by the evolution of ordinary and extraordinary floods but not significant at 95 %. At a regional level, flood behaviour is more heterogeneous, although not significant for the most part. Nouvelle-Aquitaine is the only region that shows a positive and significant trend of 0.34 events per decade.

Sedimentary characteristics of mixed source fine-grained gravity-flow and its significance for shale oil exploration in a lacustrine depression basin: A case study of the Chang 73 Sub-member of the Triassic Yanchang Formation in Ordos Basin, NW China

This study investigates the transport and evolution of fine-grained gravity-flow deposits in lacustrine basins, focusing on the relationship between fine-grained deposits and their respective source–reservoir combinations. Such knowledge is vital for the exploration and development of unconventional oil and gas resources within the source-rock series of continental lake basins in China. We investigated the fine-grained gravity-flow deposits of the Late Triassic Chang73 Sub-member within the Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin. Our approach combined core observations, field outcrop evaluations, thin section analysis, scanning electron microscopy, geochemical data, and laboratory measurements. The sedimentary facies, characteristics, controlling factors, and sedimentary model of the fine-grained gravity-flow deposits are investigated. The primary sources of fine-grained sediments are terrestrial clastic and volcanic–hydrothermal fine-grained sediments. These sediments are mainly developed in warm, humid environments with abundant precipitation, favoring a highly reducible hypoxic terrestrial brackish–freshwater environment. Ten lithofacies and eight bed types of fine-grained gravity-flow deposits are categorized. Bed types represent deposits of muddy slide deposits, muddy slump deposits, muddy debris flow deposits, muddy flow deposits, hybrid event beds, fine-grained transitional flow deposits, surge-like turbidity flow deposits, and fine-grained hyperpycnal flow deposits. As a result of paleo-seismicity, volcanic events, and paleogeomorphology, instability and subsequent collapse of the delta front sediments led to the formation of gravity-flow deposits. These deposits formed the “channel–lobe complex” and “sublacustrine fan” sedimentary systems in both the southwestern and northeastern parts of the basin, respectively. Meanwhile, extraordinary flood events formed during the Carnian Pluvial Episode (CPE) played a significant role. It prompted increased fluvial drainage that drove fine-grained hyperpycnal flows through pre-existing valley systems, resulting in the establishment of the “channel–lobe complex” sedimentary system. The Chang 73 Sub-member contains high-quality hydrocarbon source rocks, laying the foundation for shale oil. The introduction of volcanic ash and the influence of hydrothermal activities amplify the enrichment of organic matter within the lacustrine basin. Fine-grained gravity-flow deposits yield siltstone-rich sweet intervals, primarily seen in surge-like turbidity and hyperpycnal flows. The interbedding of sandy and muddy sediments, influenced by hybrid event beds and fine-grained transitional flows, establishes a stratigraphic arrangement in which the upper layer nourishes the underlying reservoir. This structure is particularly beneficial for the development of shale oil and gas sweet intervals.

Historical catastrophic floods at the southern edge of the Atacama Desert: A multi-archive reconstruction of the Copiapó river extreme events

The last hydrometeorological extreme event that caused large floods in the southern Atacama Desert in March 2015 raised concern about how little was known about the fluvial dynamic of these arid basins. Understanding the response of intermittent and ephemeral rivers in drylands to the present context of global change is critical to preserve the ecological and human systems they support, to sustainably manage their scarce water resources and to develop flood risk management plans. We have studied the instrumental and historical record and explored the potential of the Copiapó River geological record in the comprehension of how extraordinary the 2015 flood was and how its fluvial dynamic relates with global climate oscillations. We have identified 36 flood events that have occurred in the last 400 years: 22 of them have been classified as ordinary rises of the river flow (discharges <30 m3/s), 11 as extraordinary floods in which the damage is confined to areas adjacent to the river (discharges 30–180 m3/s), and only 3 as catastrophic floods (discharges >180 m3/s), including the 2015 flood event. The incorporation of the historical and palaeohydrological data into the flood frequency analysis results in an increase of the magnitude of the flood quantiles in which large flood events occur with an average recurrence interval of 120 years. Most of the flood events were caused by heavy rains that are largely linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation with a superimposed effect of the ENSO. Discharges >30 m3/s, i.e., extraordinary and catastrophic floods, occur with positive phases of the PDO and the ENSO. Further exploration of the fluvial geological record of the Copiapó River will help lengthening to thousands of years the flood record what will help improving communities' resilience by anticipating flood hazards in the current global change context, in which stronger rainfall events modulated by ENSO and ENSO-like conditions are expected.

One sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is dependent on river floodplains.

Amazonia's floodplain system is the largest and most biodiverse on Earth. Although forests are crucial to the ecological integrity of floodplains, our understanding of their species composition and how this may differ from surrounding forest types is still far too limited, particularly as changing inundation regimes begin to reshape floodplain tree communities and the critical ecosystem functions they underpin. Here we address this gap by taking a spatially explicit look at Amazonia-wide patterns of tree-species turnover and ecological specialization of the region's floodplain forests. We show that the majority of Amazonian tree species can inhabit floodplains, and about a sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is ecologically specialized on floodplains. The degree of specialization in floodplain communities is driven by regional flood patterns, with the most compositionally differentiated floodplain forests located centrally within the fluvial network and contingent on the most extraordinary flood magnitudes regionally. Our results provide a spatially explicit view of ecological specialization of floodplain forest communities and expose the need for whole-basin hydrological integrity to protect the Amazon's tree diversity and its function.

Historical flood reconstruction in a torrential alpine catchment and its implication for flood hazard assessments

Flood marks and descriptions of past floods in archival records are valuable sources of information to complement the often short – and sometimes lacunary – systematic records provided by gauge stations, especially in mountain and smaller catchments for which the network of recording stations is still fragmentary. Yet, historical accounts of floods are only rarely used to calculate discharge during past floods and to complement estimates of flood frequency and magnitude. This is because the definition of flood types and the reconstruction of past topography of the now urbanized riverscapes is often challenging. Here, we employ an approach by which we combine (i) archival (1331–1965) and continuous gauge (1966–2020) records of past floods, (ii) information on past topography and mitigation measures found on topographic maps and contemporary documents specifying the dimensions of contemporary engineering plans and (iii) a hydraulic model to derive a c. 700-year history of flood activity and related discharges for the Saltina River, Brig-Glis (Valais, Swiss Alps). Periods of increased flood activity match with flood-rich episodes in the Rhone River and high lake levels at Lago Maggiore (Ticino), and the time series passes stationarity tests since at least 1828 CE. For a total of 32 floods occurring prior to the installation of the gauge station in 1966, we provide discharges following a descriptive classification, and demonstrate that major floods occurred in 1755 (∼140 m3s−1), 1828 (∼160 m3s−1), and 1921 (∼120 m3s−1). We also evidence that the construction of mitigation measures has contributed to a reduction in flood frequency, but that the occurrence of extraordinary floods has again been on the rise since the early 21st century.

Assessment of climate extremes at the regional scale during the last millennium using an annually resolved stalagmite record

In public awareness, extraordinary floods, heat-waves, or drought episodes rank amongst the most tangible indications of a changing climate. Forecasting the magnitude of such extreme events at regional and local scales is a major challenge. Development of reliable small-scale climate models requires testing against past climate records, but these are often incomplete, or cover only partial aspects in a spectrum of environmental parameters, e.g., due to seasonal bias as it is the case for tree-ring records. Here, we study a stalagmite from the “Kleine Teufelshöhle” (KTH) in the Franconian karst (Germany) to obtain independent information on local climate conditions at multi-annual to multi-decadal time scales. Radiocarbon and 230Th/U dating provide constraints for linear growth models, which were then successfully refined by correlating high spatial resolution O isotope data for the KTH stalagmite with a published regional tree-ring width record at annual resolution for the past 1000 years. Besides the availability of the tree-ring record, the KTH site offers the additional advantage that direct comparison between tree-ring and speleothem climate proxies with historical documents is possible due to the proximity of the speleothem and tree-ring sites to the former “Free imperial city” of Nuremberg. Historical documents provide precisely dated records of extreme events, in particular for destructive floods. Higher O isotope values in the stalagmite characterize the “Litte Ice Age" (LIA), an interval coinciding with frequent and devastating floods, sometimes associated with river blockage related to accumulation of ice rafts. Prior to approximately 1500 Common Era (CE), O isotope values were generally lower and only show minor overlap with historical flooding accounts. Conversely, some known drought events for Central Europe as well as the climatic influence of large-volume volcanic eruptions with hemispheric to global impact may be recorded in the speleothem as negative excursions in speleothem O isotopic values. The correlated tree-ring and speleothem data for the first time provide a complementary paleohydrology record that is uniquely suited to resolve extreme short-term climate events at the regional scale.

Joint impacts of dams and floodplain on the rainfall-induced extreme flood in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River

Fluvial flooding is the most devastating natural hazard in the world, which presents an increased trend in the context of global warming and the active hydrological cycle with large risk for human survival. In 2020, a historically extraordinary flood hit the Changjiang River Basin where located considerable mega dams and reservoirs, including the world’s largest dam, Three Gorges Dam (TGD). The 2020 extreme flood raises public concern about the effectiveness of the impoundment of dams and reservoirs on flooding. Here, we analyzed the observed water discharge and level during the extreme flood in 2020 as well as the simulated rainfall-induced discharge and level data through the GR4J model and level-discharge curve. Results show that the water levels exhibited a rapid response to the increased water discharge, and exceeded the warning level at almost the same time along the middle and lower reach during the 2020 extreme flood. The intensive rainfall caused the basin-wide extreme flood with extra regional rainwater responsible for the largest flood in the middle and lower reach. Dams and reservoirs significantly mitigated the extreme flood by reducing 1.49 m in the flood levels and contributing to 94 % of the level changes. Meanwhile, the TGD impoundment successfully prevented a disastrous flood that could have happened with the flood level being lowered by 2.93 m. However, the considerable recession of the downstream floodplain amplified the flood level by 0.08 m, which was equal to increasing the total flood level by 5 %. Our results highlighted the crucial role of mega dams in flood control and the potential of restored floodplain storage for sustainable flood modulation in the future.

Enhancing daily streamflow simulation using the coupled SWAT-BiLSTM approach for climate change impact assessment in Hai-River Basin

Against the backdrop of accelerated global climate change and urbanization, the frequency and severity of flood disasters have been increasing. In recent years, influenced by climate change, the Hai-River Basin (HRB) has experienced multiple large-scale flood disasters. During the widespread extraordinary flood event from July 28th to August 1st, 2023, eight rivers witnessed their largest floods on record. These events caused significant damage and impact on economic and social development. The development of hydrological models with better performance can help researchers understand the impacts of climate change, provide risk information on different disaster events within watersheds, support decision-makers in formulating adaptive measures, urban planning, and improve flood defense mechanisms to address the ever-changing climate environment. This study examines the potential for enhancing streamflow simulation accuracy in the HRB located in Northeast China by combining the physically-based hydrological model with the data-driven model. Three hybrid models, SWAT-D-BiLSTM, SWAT-C-BiLSTM and SWAT-C-BiLSTM with SinoLC-1, were constructed in this study, in which SWAT was used as a transfer function to simulate the base flow and quick flow generation process based on weather data and spatial features, and BiLSTM was used to directly predict the streamflow according to the base flow and quick flow. In the SWAT-C-BiLSTM model, SWAT parameters with P values less than 0.4 in each hydrological station-controlled watershed were calibrated, while the SWAT-D-BiLSTM model did not undergo calibration. Additionally, this study utilizes both 30 m resolution land use and land cover (LULC) map and the first 1 m resolution LULC map SinoLC-1 as input data for the models to explore the impact on streamflow simulation performance. Among five models, the NSE of SWAT-C-BiLSTM with SinoLC-1 reached 0.93 and the R2 reached 0.95 during the calibration period, and both of them stayed at 0.92 even in the validation period, while the NSE and R2 of the other four models were all below 0.90 in the validation period. The potential impact of climate change on streamflow in the HRB was evaluated by using predicted data from five global climate models from CMIP6 as input for the best-performing SWAT-C-BiLSTM with SinoLC-1. The results indicate that climate change exacerbates the uneven distribution of streamflow in the HRB, particularly during the concentrated heavy rainfall months of July and August. It is projected that the monthly streamflow in these two months will increase by 34% and 49% respectively in the middle of this century. Furthermore, it is expected that the annual streamflow will increase by 5.6% to 9.1% during the mid-century and by 6.7% to 9.3% by the end of the century. Both average streamflow and peak streamflow are likely to significantly increase, raising concerns about more frequent urban flooding in the capital economic region within the HRB.

A FCM Runoff Model for Small Rivers with Rainfall Recharge. 1. The Concept and Algorithms

The flood cycle model FCM is a lumped conceptual water-balance model designed to simulate rain runoff at a scale of a small river basin. The development of the FCM model includes the description of the dynamics of the major components of the total moisture reserves of a basin and reproduces the effect of spatial expansion of the drainage network through temporary surface and subsurface streams during extraordinary floods. The accepted conceptual assumptions of the model, which are in agreement with the rational hydrological considerations, lead to three runoff-formation regimes, referred to as intravolume, surface and breakthrough. The concept and algorithms of FCM are given in detail.

Experience in Numerical Hydrodynamic Simulation of Long River Reaches

The article formulates the main requirements to numerical algorithms for hydrodynamic 2D-modeling of long and very long river segments with lengths of up to several thousand kilometers. The main feature is the use of adaptive unstructured mesh along with algorithms that give correct values of water surface elevations on coarse mesh, taking into account abrupt changes of bed elevations. A hydrodynamic model of a segment of the Amur R. with a total length of 3 thous. km is presented, which is based on a numerical solution of two-dimensional shallow-water equations (Saint-Venant) by a new high-accuracy algorithm, taking into account road and protection structures in the floodplain. The stages of model construction and verification are described, and the results of calculations for an extraordinary flood in 2013 and a high flood in 2020 are given. Water levels (with estimates of their errors) and the rates of water discharge at gages are given along with flow fields and the inundation zones of floodplain areas.

Food Based Dietary Guidelines and accompanying Visual Dietary Guidelines

National Food Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDG, simply - dietary guidelines) are intended to establish a basis for public nutrition, food, health and agricultural policies and nutrition education programs to foster healthy eating habits and lifestyle. Generally, they advocate combination of food groups and dietary patterns to provide the required nutrients to promote overall health, prevent chronic diseases, and lessen the environmental burden of food production. Dietary guidelines are developed and/or influenced by interdisciplinary teams of experts, comprising representatives of agriculture, health, education, nutrition and food science, consumers, non-governmental organizations, the food industry, communications, and anthropology. Many sources of information are reviewed in this process, such as scientific evidence of the relationship between diet, nutrition and health, and data on food production, food consumption, food composition, cost, accessibility, and environmental impact. The last 40+ years have seen an extraordinary flood of nutrition research and information which in turn influenced the content of these FBDGs as knowledge progressed. While reflecting this evolution and inevitably having some shortcomings, overall FBDG have been and will remain a major influence on healthier eating habits and lifestyle, on what society believes as being healthy diet patterns, on food production and distribution, and on government food, nutrition, and environmental legislation.

Engineering demand functions for medium-span RC bridges subjected to earthquake and scour actions

In Mexico, there are two broad areas where highway bridges are subjected to multi-hazard action due to the effects of scour induced by floods and the occurrence of earthquakes. This study aims to determine, for the first time in the country, analytical expressions to assess engineering demand parameters of the joint action of earthquakes and scour events. These expressions will be the basis to evaluate expected losses and the risk of bridges located in these regions, to prioritize rehabilitation and reinforcement actions. Initially, a statistical analysis of the bridges' typology in the regions of Mexico exposed to multi-hazard was carried out. Based on those analyses, the geometric characteristics of the numerical models were chosen. Spectral acceleration in the longitudinal and transverse directions of the bridges was selected as the seismic intensity measure (IM), whereas engineering demand parameter (EDP) was the curvature ductility demand in columns (μφ). On the other hand, the expected maximum scour depth (ys) was estimated by evaluating the maximum extraordinary flood at bridge locations. Finally, IM-EDP empirical functions that correlate μφ−ys−Sa(T), based on 25020 nonlinear time-history analyses, were proposed. The proposed equations can also be used in other sites with similar bridges’ typologies subjected to multi-hazard actions of scour and interplate and intraplate earthquakes.

The frequency, intensity, and origin of floods in Poland in the 11th–15th centuries based on documentary evidence

Documentary evidence is increasingly being recognized as a precious source for assessing flood records. We have used this type of proxy data to identify the occurrence of floods in Poland from the 11th to the 15th centuries. In addition, we estimated the intensity of each flood event using the best-known classifications for Europe (Barriendos and Coeur, 2004; Brázdil et al., 2006) and assessed their origin based on modified Lambor’s (1954) criteria. The database of floods in Poland contains 166 occurrences in the study period. Most occurred in the 15th century (61.4%). Of the studied regions, Silesia and the Baltic Coast and Pomerania regions were the two most affected by flood events, each accounting for 33–34% of instances. Based on the Brázdil et al. (2006) classification, 77 of the recorded floods are above-average or supra-regional. Also, the indexation of floods based on Barriendos and Coeur (2004) demonstrated that 99 were extraordinary flood events. Rain and its subtypes were the leading causes of floods, with 79 records (47.6%). Flood occurrence in Poland exhibited good spatial coherency with neighboring countries. The updated and most complete inventory of floods in medieval Poland that we present here with a detailed analysis of their frequency, intensity and origin, improves the existing knowledge about this phenomenon in Central Europe. The results of this study, similarly to many other previous studies, also confirm the great capacity for documentary evidence to provide valuable and reliable information about flood records for the pre-instrumental period.

Needs for Portfolio Risk Assessment of Aging Dams in the United States

Dam failure can cause extraordinary flooding. Water and wastewater treatment plants, electricity generation facilities, bridges, highways, population centers, and other dams often lie downstream of a dam. If poorly maintained, aging dams can be overtopped by extreme rainfall events, and long-term loss of critical infrastructure services for many communities and regions may result. Such events are now more likely as the climate changes. How should we prioritize dams that need immediate attention and retrofit or remove them? Losses from a dam failure could exceed the infrastructure’s replacement costs, through cascading effects in multiple sectors such as electricity, transportation, water supply, and environmental services. The existing dam hazard classification frameworks in the US and many other countries do not formally characterize “hazard hotspots” considering these impacts. Given that there are over 90,000 dams at different stages of repair, maintenance, and budgetary constraints, a systematic approach is needed to rank their potential failure hazard and allocate resources for risk mitigation. In this paper, we synthesize an approach for preliminary ranking of the priority areas of concern. The approach is scalable over many regions for rapid assessment of magnitude and exposure of a dam failure. The estimation of the consequences of a dam failure, including its financial losses, as well as affected critical infrastructures and population, is explored using publicly available dam break and consequence tools as well as national infrastructure data sets.

Geochemistry of a paleo-oxbow lake sediments and its implications for the late Holocene extreme overbank flooding history of the Yellow River within the Zoige Basin, NE Tibetan Plateau

Paleo-oxbow lake sediments can provide archives to reconstruct paleo-channel evolution and flooding history of the river. Multi-proxy approaches including detailed sediment stratigraphy, sedimentology and geochemistry have been implemented in a high-resolution sedimentary section of paleo-oxbow lake of the Yellow River within the Zoige Basin on the NE Tibetan Plateau, to reconstruct regional environmental changes and extreme overbank flooding history. Our results suggest that not only traditional sedimentological proxies, but also chemical elements can be applied in defining sequences with different genetic types, especially the paleoflood deposits in the paleo-oxbow profile. Two units of late-Holocence extreme overbank flooding deposits (OFDs) are identified in terms of the significantly higher proportions of sand, high contents of SiO2, Na2O, Ba, low contents of Al2O3, Fe2O3, MgO, K2O, Ti, Rb and high values of Zr/Fe, Zr/Rb ratios. These extraordinary flood events within the Zoige Basin were dated back to 2,960 ± 240–2,870 ± 270 a and 1840 ± 200–1700 ± 160 a, in response to the mid-Holocene climatic optimum to the late Holocene and the Dark Age Cold Period (DACP). And the strong rainfall caused by the abnormal atmospheric circulation during the period of climate transition and abrupt change may led to the frequent occurrence of extreme flood events in the source region of the Yellow River. These findings are important for understanding the response of regional fluvial system to high climatic instability and provide a new perspective for us to analyze the risk of flood disasters on the Tibetan Plateau under the background of climate change.

A comprehensive analysis of Holocene extraordinary flood events in the Langxian gorge of the Yarlung Tsangpo River valley

Increasing extreme temperature, precipitation and rapid meltwater events have added stress to the Himalaya's hydrological sensitivity and major flood risks, however, current extreme hydrological dataset and their genesis are insufficient to assess future flood discharge extremes in High Asian’ rivers. Here, Holocene extreme floods in the Yarlung Tsangpo River valley were reconstructed by using physic-chemical analysis, optically stimulated luminescence dating and palaeohydraulic techniques. Palaeoflood slackwater deposits (SWDs) were identified by means of palaeohydrological criteria and comparison with SWDs from large flood that occurred in 2018. Palaeoflood SWDs consist of well-sorted silt and sand with a consistent geochemical composition, implying a similar sedimentary source. Such results suggest that these SWDs were transported in suspension over long distances during flood events. The chronological analysis indicates that there are three palaeoflood events, dated to 5.7, 3.9 and 2.9–1.2 ka, during the mid-late Holocene. Palaeoflood peak discharges in the bedrock reach and meandering channel were estimated to be 27,600–35,000 m3/s using one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling. The simulation results clearly show the potential palaeoflood depositional range in the lower–velocity and eddy backwater environments between Jiacha and Langxian gorge. The palaeoflood magnitudes redefine the regional largest flood discharge, and fit well with global maximum flood curves. And mid-late Holocene extreme flood magnitudes were generally 2.5–3.5 times larger than the current maximum gauged flood, but lower than the Jiedexiu glacial lake outburst floods. Comprehensive analysis highlights the three extraordinary floods were possibly induced by monsoon rains and glacial meltwater. Site-specific palaeoflood information advances our knowledge of rare and extraordinary floods in the highest and largest river in the southern Tibetan Plateau.

Palaeohydrology from the Northern Salado River, a lower Parana river tributary (Argentina)

Palaeofloods and drainage palaeostage can be approached from sedimentological, stratigraphical, geomorphological, geodetic, and geophysical information. This allows us to supply pre-instrumental and historical data and to assess a particular flood-prone area. It has been proved that the study of Late Holocene fluvial sediments is valuable source to estimate 1 × 102-1x103yr. scale occurrence and long-term recurrence of maximum events. The geological evidence of palaeofloods in lowlands in Central Argentina may reveal higher discharges likely occurred in the near past.In this work, we attempt to identify sedimentological evidence of past floods in Late Holocene sediments from the northern Salado River (NSR), an important tributary of the lower Paraná River basin (Chaco-Pampean plain region). In the yr. 2003, the lower reaches of the NSR recorded an extreme flood event that provoked a disaster in Santa Fe, a city of 500,000 inhabitants located at the river mouth.Considering the importance of this event, we developed a geomorphometry methodology for discriminating different levels of fluvial terraces and flood indicators in a representative area of the NSR, using multi-scale resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data. Descriptions of flood-associated fluvial landforms and sedimentological stratigraphic attributes were performed in the field. High-resolution geodetic information and digital optical images were obtained from UAV photogrammetry. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) cross-sections were achieved and addressed to detect extreme flood evidence. A geomorphometric routine was applied to simulate the extreme flood scenarios, based on the data obtained from the field. The map resulting from the simulation was compared to satellite images recorded in the yr. 2003 extreme flood. A series of slackwater deposits and other palaeostage indicators (SWD-PSI) showed elevations higher than those reached over the yr. 2003 extraordinary flood (instrumentally recorded) and in the yr. 1914 historic flood event. The geomorphometric simulation of a flood event, calibrated from these diagnostic landforms, allowed us to extend the flood-prone area beyond the boundaries of the current active floodplain and channel. The integrative methodology enabled the mapping of areas potentially prone to flooding. The estimations of the discharges associated to the inferred palaeofloods could be 50–80% larger than the maximum events historically documented and instrumentally measured.

Investigating the Linkage between Extreme Rainstorms and Concurrent Synoptic Features: A Case Study in Henan, Central China

Extraordinary floods are linked with heavy rainstorm systems. Among various systems, their synoptic features can be quite different. The understanding of extreme rainstorms by their causative processes may assist in flood frequency analysis and support the evaluation of any changes in flood occurrence and magnitudes. This paper aims to identify the most dominant meteorological factors for extreme rainstorms, using the ERA5 hourly reanalysis dataset in Henan, central China as a case study. Past 72 h extreme precipitation events are investigated, and six potential factors are considered in this study, including precipitable water (PW), the average temperature (Tavg) of and the temperature difference (Tdiff) between the value at 850 hPa and 500 hPa, relative humidity (RH), convective available potential energy (CAPE), and vertical wind velocity (Wind). The drivers of each event and the dominant factor at a given location are identified using the proposed metrics based on the cumulative distribution function (CDF). In Henan, central China, Wind and PW are dominant factors in summer, while CAPE and Wind are highly related factors in winter. For Zhengzhou city particularly, Wind is the key driver for summer extreme rainstorms, while CAPE plays a key role in winter extreme precipitation events. It indicates that the strong transport of water vapor in summer and atmospheric instability in winter should receive more attention from the managers and planners of water resources. On the contrary, temperature-related factors have the least contribution to the occurrence of extreme events in the study area. The analysis of dominant factors can provide insights for further flood estimations and forecasts.

Paleoflood evidence for an upper limit of the maximum flood magnitudes along the Gold Gorge, the upper Hanjiang River, China

This paper provides an important archive of the largest paleoflood event along the Gold Gorge of the upper Hanjiang River, with a review of regional extraordinary flood magnitudes using historical, gauged, and paleoflood datasets. Paleoflood slackwater deposit (SWD) was identified using the sedimentological criteria and high-resolution physicochemical indexes. End-member model demonstrates the paleoflood SWD was dominated by sand component. Optical chronology indicates the paleoflood event was dated to 1000–900 a BP, corresponding to the North Song Dynasty (AD 960–1127). Paleoflood magnitudes derived from one-dimensional unsteady model vary between 23,000 and 34,000 m3/s. The paleoflood data provide a good representation of extraordinary flood event with a 10,000-years return period and greatly improve current flood frequency estimations. Moreover, the envelope curve for extraordinary floods was first established as Q = 50D0.65 and the paleoflood peak discharges are approximately 2–2.5 times of the largest gauged floods within the catchment. These results provide an upper limit of the maximum flood magnitudes along the upper Hanjiang River and also expand our understanding of rare and large magnitude floods in the middle Yangtze River valley.

Enhanced flood hazard assessment beyond decadal climate cycles based on centennial historical data (Duero basin, Spain)

Abstract. Current climate modelling frameworks present significant uncertainties when it comes to quantifying flood quantiles in the context of climate change, calling for new information and strategies in hazard assessments. Here, state-of-the-art methods on hydraulic and statistical modelling are applied to historical and contemporaneous flood records to evaluate flood hazards beyond natural climate cycles. A comprehensive flood record of the Duero River in Zamora (Spain) was compiled from documentary sources, early water-level readings and continuous gauge records spanning the last 500 years. Documentary evidence of flood events includes minute books (municipal and ecclesiastic), narrative descriptions, epigraphic marks, newspapers and technical reports. We identified 69 flood events over the period 1250 to 1871, of which 15 were classified as catastrophic floods, 16 as extraordinary floods and 38 as ordinary floods. Subsequently, a two-dimensional hydraulic model was implemented to relate flood stages (flood marks and inundated areas) to discharges. The historical flood records show the largest floods over the last 500 years occurred in 1860 (3450 m3 s−1), 1597 (3200 m3 s−1) and 1739 (2700 m3 s−1). Moreover, at least 24 floods exceeded the perception threshold of 1900 m3 s−1 during the period (1500–1871). Annual maximum flood records were completed with gauged water-level readings (pre-instrumental dataset, PRE: 1872–1919) and systematic gauge records (systematic dataset, SYS: 1920–2018). The flood frequency analyses were based on (1) the expected moments algorithm (EMA) and (2) the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) method, using five datasets with different temporal frameworks (historic dataset, HISTO: 1511–2018; PRE–SYS: 1872–2018; full systematic record, ALLSYS: 1920–2018; SYS1: 1920–1969; and SYS2: 1970–2018). The most consistent results were obtained using the HISTO dataset, even for high quantiles (0.001 % annual exceedance probability, AEP). PRE–SYS was robust for the 1 % AEP flood with increasing uncertainty in the 0.2 % AEP or 500-year flood, and ALLSYS results were uncertain in the 1 % and 0.2 % AEP floods. Since the 1970s, the frequency of extraordinary floods (&gt;1900 m3 s−1) declined, although floods on the range of the historical perception threshold occurred in 2001 (2075 m3 s−1) and 2013 (1654 m3 s−1). Even if the future remains uncertain, this bottom-up approach addresses flood hazards under climate variability, providing real and certain flood discharges. Our results can provide a guide on low-regret adaptation decisions and improve public perception of extreme flooding.