4642 Background: Many patients with a rising PSA (biochemical recurrence; BCR), after radical prostatectomy (RP) will eventually develop metastases, but our ability to predict the risk of progression over time is limited. We developed a model (nomogram) that incorporates all known prognostic factors to predict the probability of Mets 8 years after BCR. Methods: We queried our multidisciplinary prostate cancer database for patients who developed BCR after RP for clinically localized disease. We defined BCR as 3 subsequent peaks in PSA ≥0.1 ng/ml. After excluding 14 adjuvant radiation patients, we found 816 followed for 0.1 to 15.9 (median 4.3) years after BCR. We recorded times of secondary treatment (radiation or hormonal therapy), metastases and death. A Cox proportional hazards analysis incorporated preoperative PSA, use of neoadjuvant hormonal therapy (NHT), time from surgery to BCR, pathologic findings [surgical margin, presence of extracapsular extention, seminal vesicle invasion (SVI), lymph node metastases, and pathologic Gleason score (GS)], PSA doubling time (PSA DT) and PSA value at BCR into a predictive model. Results: Secondary treatment for BCR only was a frequent event: 216 patients (26.5%) had radiation therapy and 340 (41.7%) hormones; 157 developed metastases, 67 died of other causes and 244 (29.9%) were alive with out metastases or secondary treatment at last follow-up. In the multivariate model the following predicted metastatic progression: high preoperative PSA (P=0.01), use of NHT (P=0.02), presence of SVI (P=0.005), high pathologic GS (P<0.001), short PSA DT (P=0.01) and high PSA value at BCR (P<0.001). A nomogram for predicting risk of metastases at 8 years was constructed with a concordance index of 0.75. Conclusions: Multiple disease factors affect the risk of metastases after BCR. This new nomogram helps predict, at the time of BCR after RP, the 8-year probability of metastases for the individual patient and provides a useful tool to identify patients appropriate for intervention trials or surveillance. No significant financial relationships to disclose.
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