Extra-regional Actors Research Articles

«3+3» COOPERATION PLATFORM AND PROSPECTS FOR UNBLOCKING TRANSPORT COMMUNICATIONS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

The article discusses the problems and prospects for the functioning of the «3+3» advisory platform, aimed at unblocking transport communications in the South Caucasus. The authors identify possibilities and obstacles to synchronizing the transport and logistics interests of regional and extra-regional actors. The goals and objectives of the «3+3» initiative are studied in the context of the implementation of the trilateral agreement of November 10, 2020 on the cessation of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh. The article identifies problems that impede the full functioning of the «3+3» platform (geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West, contradictions between Iran and Azerbaijan and Georgia’s self-exclusion from this platform). The authors also study implementation of the «Crossroads of Peace» project which helps assess the potential of Armenia as a country aspiring to create a regional transport hub at the intersection of the international corridors «East-West» and «North-South». It is established that, despite the apparent closeness to the goals of the «3+3» platform, the «Crossroads of Peace» project has a different geopolitical agenda.

Venezuelan migration in South America: coordinating regional responses to a transboundary reception crisis

ABSTRACT Migration is a policy field that is prone to transboundary reception crises due to the weakness of inter-state cooperation and global governance institutions’ incomplete architecture. Research suggests that the regional level is a more realistic policy arena where cooperation to coordinate responses may emerge. Our paper aims to explore and analyse the conditions under which coordinated responses to transboundary reception crises are present in (or absent from) regional migration governance. Below we develop an analytical model based on crisis management scholarship to examine coordination capacities at the regional level. Empirically, we comparatively assess the ability of old regional institutions (i.e. MERCOSUR, the South American Conference of Migration) and new ones (i.e. the Quito Process) to orchestrate responses to receive Venezuelan migrants across the region. Our findings reveal that coordination capacities remain scarce as regional institutions navigate from non-crisis to crisis times. This is largely because there was a shift in policy framing regarding immigrant reception, to self-interested national, regional and extra-regional actors promoting new regional mechanisms, and to the increasing complexity of regional migration governance as (new) competing actors emerge. Our conceptual and empirical contributions provide insights into how governance processes in South America have changed, particularly during crises.

THE RIVALRY OF REGIONAL AND NON-REGIONAL ACTORS IN CENTRAL ASIA IN THE CONTEXT OF THE CONCEPT OF EURASIANISM

The purpose of this research paper is to study Central Asia in the geopolitical space of Eurasia and the influence of extra-regional actors in the context of the “big game”. As a result of modern global political and socio-economic transformations in Russian science, forgotten ideas are being renewed, which marked the guidelines for the further development of the state, aimed at combating global challenges of our time, preventing interfaith and interethnic conflicts, uniting peoples, preserving national and territorial unity, and creating a vast and strong state. After the cold War, cultural geopolitical concepts were reinterpreted. Among them was the concept of Eurasianism, which has deep historical roots for the peoples of the region, including Central Asia in the context of the “Big Game” in Eurasia. The authors concluded that after the collapse of the USSR, the geopolitical situation in Central Asia underwent drastic changes. The importance of this region is reflected in the geopolitical theories of various world scientists, including the classics of geopolitics, including the concept of Eurasianism. The existing contradictions in the region and the struggle between the great powers for leadership are shaping global and regional instability in Central Asia.

Turkey’s ‘Return’ to Central Asia in a Shifting Global and Regional Context: New Opportunities and Limitations

ABSTRACT Turkey has been becoming more active in Central Asia recently. This activism entails increasing linkages in the economic, energy, and transport areas, as well as deepening cultural and political relations. Although there are some continuities, Turkey’s new engagement with the region differs from its previous engagements in important ways. The region has also changed, as have extra-regional actors and their roles. This article illustrates the shifting global and regional contexts, and how these shifts have motivated the AKP government’s renewal of interest in Central Asia. The new regional constellations provide both opportunities and challenges for Turkey’s Central Asia engagement. For example, competition among the major powers and regional countries’ quest to diversify their foreign policies provide Turkey with new opportunities, yet Turkey’s complex relations with each of these actors and the challenge of balancing limits its return.

Southeast Asia in the context of the rivalry between the USA and China

The article examines the specifics of the situation in Southeast Asia (Southeast Asia) from the point of view of military security issues and in connection with the situation in the Indo-Pacific region (ITR). The author proceeds from the fact that a serious destabilizing factor in the region remains the presence of intraregional contradictions - political, territorial and ethno-confessional, which are used by extra-regional actors under the auspices of the United States. Having identified China and Russia as the main rivals, Washington improved its Indo-Pacific strategy, activated the activities of existing ones and began to form new military-political alliances, on the basis of which it is envisaged to create an Asia-Pacific branch of NATO to contain them. The author believes that Washington's policy in Southeast Asia is opposed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which proceeds from its central role in the evolution of the regional security architecture. In the context of the escalating rivalry between the United States and China, ASEAN sees a way to overcome the complex of regional contradictions in creating a security system based on mechanisms associated with ASEAN. In the ASEAN concept, the ITR appears as a region of dialogue and cooperation, not competition, open to China and other interested states to participate in the project. The author comes to the conclusion that such a statement of the question is justified both from the point of view of the strategic interests of the Southeast Asian countries themselves, and in general of the entire ITR. Analyzing the strategy adopted by Washington, the author believes that it becomes a long-term factor of strategic planning in the Pentagon. Its main goal will be to forcefully counter China's policy and put pressure on Russia and ASEAN, which seek to resist the dominance of the United States in the IT. In his opinion, in the current conditions of the situation, it is necessary to further strengthen the comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and China and deepen cooperation with ASEAN on the basis of common interests in order to ensure regional security and stability.

AUKUS and Southeast Asia's Ontological Security Dilemma

What does AUKUS mean for Southeast Asia? While some Southeast Asian countries are critical of the new pact, others appear to be more positive or, at least, neutral towards it. We argue that Southeast Asian responses to AUKUS are characterised by a new ontological security dilemma with three different characteristics. First, Southeast Asian countries—particularly Indonesia and Malaysia—face the dilemma of maintaining a balance of power and regional stability amid an environment of increasing engagement with extra-regional actors. A second dilemma relates to the region's need for security against extra-regional threats, primarily from China, which led several Southeast Asian countries—such as Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines—to support AUKUS, either explicitly or implicitly. Third is ASEAN's organisational dilemma of how to strategically utilise its regional frameworks to respond to AUKUS amid the divergent views of major Southeast Asian countries. We then address efforts to mitigate the regional security dilemma by reconsidering ASEAN regional frameworks and rethinking the role of the ASEAN chairman to deal with major regional security issues.

BEYOND THE HUB AND SPOKES: THE NETWORKING LOGIC AND THE OPERATIONALIZATION OF US INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY

This article examines continuity in the transformation of the United States’ security arrangements in Asia from a Cold War “hub and spokes system” focused on East Asia into a new arrangement of “networked minilateralism” across the wider “Indo-Pacific” region. It focuses mainly on the role of the United States and the policy tools it employs to coordinate the strengthening of linkages among its partners. By employing tools of defence diplomacy, standardisation in trade and infrastructure development, revamping the rhetoric of common values and inviting extra-regional actors to play a more active role in the Indo-Pacific, Washington is mobilising a “latticework” of partners that are assisting in the redesign of the regional security system and the balancing of China. At the same time, structural changes in the region’s power balance have induced local partners to become part of this networked architecture and to maintain a clearer sense of ownership in the regional security system.

Placing the platform economy: the emerging, developing and upgrading of Taobao villages as a platform-based place making phenomenon in China

Abstract The actions of platforms and their all-inclusive impact on place development is coined platform-based place making in this article. We use the actor-network theory to analyse a typical e-commerce platform-based place making, namely the emergence, development and upgrading of Taobao villages in China, and to explore the mechanisms of platform place making power. Our study shows that platforms ‘make’ places by platform–place interactions of progressively expanding the enrolment of intra-regional and extra-regional actors. In addition, our research advances the actor-network theory and its application and transcends the urban and production-side bias of economic geography.

Turkey’s security role in the Gulf region: exploring the case of a newcomer

ABSTRACT This study explores Turkey as a newcomer to Gulf security. It addresses why Turkish decision-makers want Turkey to play an elevated security role in the Gulf. It offers a holistic yet detailed outlook of Turkey’s potential enhanced security role and develops a systematic argument that assesses Ankara's aspiration, will, and capacity to play such a role. Finally, it adopts a comparative perspective to show how the regional actors (Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and Iran) might perceive an enhanced Turkish security role in the Gulf; and where Turkey stands vis-à-vis the capacity of other extra-regional actors (the U.S., China, India, and Russia) concerning Gulf security.

Whose security is it? Elitism and the global approach to maritime security in Africa

Africa’s marine environment and resources that lie beneath it are central to the continent’s sustainable development and actualising the ambitions set out by the African Union in its Agenda 2063, where the oceans are described as the frontier of Africa’s development. The continent’s maritime domain and resources are also attractive to foreign partners relying on its oceans to enhance their economic development and geostrategic interests. Serving the interests of all parties, especially the 38 coastal states and the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and land-linked countries on the continent that benefit from the maritime sector, comes with challenges, some of which manifest as threats to the sustainable resource extraction and safety of those that use the maritime domain. We explored the literature, policy documents and maritime security reports database, together with our experiences as African maritime governance and security experts, to critically examine maritime security in Africa and unravel how extra-regional actors have securitised maritime threats. We show how the selective framing of what constitutes threats and associated resourcing of responses to counter them, often dictated by foreign interests, is an elite project that undermines a holistic notion of maritime security that would benefit the African people.

The Middle East: Seeking a New Security Architecture in a Changing World

The article focuses on one of the global problems of international relations — creation of a regional security system in the Middle East. There is no multilateral process in the region aimed at the regional stability maintenance, as well as effective mechanisms for controlling conflict and crisis zones. The authors put forward the goal of identifying new trends and prospects for ensuring security in the region. They analyze the accumulated experience, in particular, such security initiatives as the Damascus Declaration, “Peninsula Shield”, “Interpol of the Gulf ”, “Arab NATO”. The weaknesses and strengths of these projects are noted, and significant processes and events in the implementation of these initiatives are highlighted. Particular emphasis is placed on the Gulf sub-region. The scientific novelty of the research is determined by necessity to examine and understand new processes and phenomena at the level of interstate interaction in the region and in the field of security as a whole. The provisions of the concept of regional security complexes by B. Buzan and O. Weaver turned out to be useful for the discourse on security threats and their dynamics in the region. They conclude that the establishment of an inclusive security system in the Middle East appears to be a long-term and multi-layered process. It is necessary to consider the declared problem in a wide context, affecting not only military security issues, but also political, social, economic stability, taking into account the totality of the national interests of all states of the region and the participation of extra-regional actors in this process as well.

Russia's power projection into Syria and its interactions with local states

Abstract By analysing Russia's engagements with Israel and Turkey in the Syrian theatre, this article sheds light on the kinds of interactions that may occur between an external great power and local states following the former's projection of power into the latter's region. The literature on power projection examines interactions between regional and extra-regional actors in the context of competition between great powers, thus overlooking interactions between great powers and non-great powers. Other literature, such as that on coercive diplomacy, does deal with this neglected issue, but it treats local states as the great power's target states. This, however, need not be the case, since great powers may engage local states while pursuing wholly different goals in a region. As this article illustrates, although Israel and Turkey have not been Russia's target states, Russia has frequently interacted with them to ensure that they refrain from acts harmful to its interests in Syria. Russia has succeeded in this endeavour, as local states have mostly complied with Russia's rules and restrictions while operating in Syria. When this was not the case, Russia introduced restrictive or punitive measures against Israel and Turkey, which enabled Moscow to keep the local environment conductive to its interests.

Geopolitical Rivalry Between Russia and the United States for the European Gas Market

Over the past decades, the European gas market has attracted the attention of many extra-regional actors. The geopolitical rivalry for the European gas market intensified after an increase in shale gas production in the United States, which was interested in expanding its supply to Europe. The development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector intensified the struggle for the European gas market. The U.S., Qatar and Algeria, began to take steps to squeeze Russian gas out of Europe. This exacerbated the competition for the gas market in Europe, where LNG has already occupied a certain part. Moreover, in recent years, the U.S. and Qatar have developed ambitious plans aimed at increasing LNG production, expecting in the future to radically change the balance of power on the European market. To this end, the U.S. has launched a campaign against the Russian supplies. In addition, sanctions were imposed on the Nord Stream–2 gas pipeline, which prevented the project from starting operations. Being involved in the geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the United States, the EU countries supported the U.S. course, and proclaimed the policy of reducing dependence on Russian gas. In the long term, they want to give it up completely. This goal was prioritised in the EU gas policy. However, in 2021–2022 this strategy rapidly increased prices on the gas market in Europe, which negatively impacted European economies. Despite the economic losses, the EU did not abandon its course of refusing supplies of hydrocarbon resources from Russia.

Turkey as a Transport Hub: a Vision Strategy for Integrating Regional Infrastructures and Services

Surrounded by seas on three sides, Turkey wants to connect different seas and coastal regions by land transport corridors. Moreover, Turkey pretends to connect the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian and also Arctic Oceans by various transport corridors, which may referred to China, the EU, India and Russia accordingly. Thus, Turkey's transport strategy has 3 levels: national, regional and international. The research objective is to reveal Turkey's prospects of becoming a transport hub, to analyze Turkey's geographical location, the favorable circumstances and obstacles, the positions of the Turkish leadership and regional and extra-regional actors. We conclude that Turkey has glimmering chances to become a transport hub both in the West-East and North-South directions, and even in their various branches. Becoming a transport hub is very important from Turkey's point of view to be included in the top ten economically leading countries․ Likewise, it full compliances with Turkey's current ambitions։ Turkey is already a regional superpower with global ambitions, and in the long-term perspective it aspires to become a global player. The topic is actual for Armenia, as it directly refers on it․ The aspiration of Turkey to become a transport hub can also put Armenia on the world transport map, turning it into a transport hub as well, at least in the East-West (China-Europe) direction.

РОЛЬ США В ОКЕАНИИ: ПОПЫТКИ ВОССТАНОВИТЬ ПРИСУТСТВИЕ В РЕГИОНЕ НА ФОНЕ РОСТА ВЛИЯНИЯ КНР

Oceania is known for its extensive exclusive economic zones (EEZs), favorable location at the crossing of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, as well as potentially large reserves of natural resources. Despite the fact that this region is more remote from an eventual area of military operations than Southeast Asia or the Indian Ocean Countries, it's facing a more and more attention from leading regional and extra-regional actors. The United States is no exception. For many decades, Washington strengthened its military, economic and socio-humanitarian positions in Micronesia, but at the beginning of the 21st century, the People's Republic of China (PRC) began to take an increasingly active part in Oceania's affairs, which later became the U.S.'s competitor for regional and global leadership. Initially, the United States expected that Australia would assume the status of China's main rival in Oceania and try to reduce the pace of his convergence with the Pacific Island Countries (PICs). But it later turned out that Canberra was not up to the task. Because of this, the U.S. has tried to institutionalize its presence in South Pacific, but faced with the consequences of the transformation of the regional architecture.

Infrastructure projects in the Black Sea-Caspian Sea region: transport, finance, geopolitics

The Black Sea-Caspian Sea region as a geopolitically-important region represents various levels of conflicting interests both of regional and extra-regional actors. Though the world is changing under the influence of globalization and regionalism, the rules of behavior and the algorithm of the actions in the geopolitical game remain unchanged – the actors weigh their interests, set goals, declare their policies, try to predict the actions of other regional players, look for necessary resources, define their priorities and preferences. Their interests may be driven by economic or political factors; they may participate in various integrative initiatives, promote diversified projects and intend to develop regional cooperation. But geopolitics remains the key factor of their choices – and in this region it is even complicated by an energy factor. Under the present circumstances of global competition for resources and their transit routes, in the situation of a multitude of interests, the authors still consider geopolitical interests as the major driving factor of current developments in the Black Sea-Caspian Sea region.

ИНСТРУМЕНТЫ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ СТРЕССОУСТОЙЧИВОСТИ АСЕАН В УСЛОВИЯХ КРИЗИСОВ: СРАВНИТЕЛЬНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ

The article undertakes a comparative analysis of ASEAN resilience instruments amidst the three most severe socio-economic crises that the union has faced over the past 25 years. These are the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 2008 global financial crisis and the corona crisis from early 2020 to the present. All three cases reveal similarities in ASEAN’s response models to socio-economic shocks, which is limited to three tools. In the analyzed cases active "institution building" in Southeast Asia can be identified. It included the launch of formal and informal committees, platforms, and ad hoc response centers. To a lesser extent, this is relevant to ASEAN's response to the 2008 crisis. With the exception of the global financial crisis, the greatest contribution to the stress-resistance of the association was made by ASEAN dialogue partners, which, as experience shows, led to an increased dependence of the member-states on financial assistance from extra-regional actors. This is clearly exemplified by cooperation in the ASEAN+3 format. A similar instrument to ensure ASEAN's resilience in all three cases is the reliance on foreign trade liberalization and promotion of free trade agreements. This instrument became particularly necessary after the global financial crisis of 2008, when the Association developed an exten-sive FTAs system.

USA — China: Strategic balance

This article examines the current state of the US-China strategic balance — both military and economic aspects of the latter. This balance, however, is not changing in favor of the United States. Currently, China is the largest economy in the world, and economic ties with China are too important for US partners and allies to break off trade and economic ties with China to please Washington. More importantly, the rapid growth of China’s military-technical potential in recent years has led to radical changes in the balance of power in the western Pacific. Washington has lost its former absolute military superiority in the coastal areas of the PRC, and in the event of a large-scale armed US-Chinese conflict in the Taiwan area or in the South China Sea, American losses will be enormous, and the United States will not be able to achieve a decisive victory during this conflict. Under these conditions, the American ruling elite is united in the fact that without a system of anti-Chinese alliances, which should unite both the countries of the Indo-Pacific region and countries outside the ITR, China’s containment is impossible. The Biden administration continued Trump’s policy of building a “sanitary cordon” around China with the involvement of extra-regional actors in this construction. We are talking about the creation of a military-political alliance AUKUS, which includes Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. The purpose of this alliance is to counter China in the disputed areas of the South China Sea. It is concluded that the formation of such a system of alliances is difficult to achieve — and it’s not just that the partners and allies of the United States are too interested in maintaining trade and economic ties with China to participate in the creation of an anti-Chinese “sanitary cordon”. China’s strategic isolation is impossible if Russia cannot be brought into the anti-Chinese system of alliances. At present, however, China has a solid rear in the form of a growing Russian-Chinese partnership and cooperation. The actions of the United States and its allies, which Moscow and Beijing view as threatening and provocative (NATO expansion to the East; American block-building in the ITR) could not but lead to a serious revision by the Russian and Chinese leadership of military cooperation between the two powers.

FROM INTERVENTION TO EXIT: AN ANALYSIS OF POST-9/11 US STRATEGIES IN AFGHANISTAN

Following the US exit from Afghanistan, the debate revolves around why US intervention in Afghanistan, the longest and one of the most expensive in its history, has failed in defeating the Taliban and realising a durable state-building. The debate considers endogenous factors that explore US and Taliban strategies and exogenous factors that underline the role of regional and extra-regional actors in determining the outcome of the Afghan conflict. This paper, therefore, focuses on faults and inconsistencies within and across US strategies in Afghanistan, i.e., the use of military force, political settlement, and state-building. It also examines US strategies vis-à-vis conflict in Afghanistan under four US administrations – from Bush to Biden – to ascertain why these strategies proved ineffective. These strategies have been analysed by following the conceptual framework of Game Theory. The paper argues that US strategies for entering Afghanistan were detached from the ground realities, which was the critical factor for its failure to achieve the desired outcome of the conflict. Bibliography Entry Shad, Muhammad Riaz, Sajid Iqbal. 2021. "From Intervention to Exit: An Analysis of Post-9/11 US Strategies in Afghanistan." Margalla Papers 25 (2): 23-34.

Israel’s Policy in the South Caucasus as a Factor of Ensuring National Security

The strategic position of the South Caucasus prompted the regional players, Russia, Iran and Turkey, to seek more significant influence on this territory. Israel is not a direct actor in the South Caucasus. Still, the region is of great strategic importance for the foreign policy doctrine of the Israeli state, whose interests only intensified as Iran’s influence had expanded after the lifting of sanctions in 2016. This article focuses on the region’s importance to Israel in its regional and national security. Based on this, the paper identifies and analyzes Israel’s geopolitical priorities and interests in the South Caucasus. The primary attention is paid to the main directions of Israel’s foreign policy, focused on protecting its vital interests. Since the creation of the Israeli state, the central foreign policy doctrines have been researched. The main aspects of Israel’s relations and interests with the region’s states (particularly the role of Iran) have been analyzed. Israel’s foreign policy is primarily tied to its deeply rooted historical traditions and is based on the principles of realism. Israel’s interests and policy in the Caucasus have three main aspects: strategic - a means of encircling Iran, medium-term - the energy supply zone, short-term - a market for the sale of high-tech weapons and ammunition. At the same time, these dimensions pose a challenge for the three traditional regional players - Russia, Turkey and Iran - who are very reluctant to admit extra-regional actors. The novelty of the article lies in consideration of Israel as a new geopolitical actor in the South Caucasus in the triangle of relations between regional and local states, as well as a zone for ensuring Israel’s geo-security. The main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in scientific and pedagogical activities in assessing the issues of regional and national security, foreign policy and geopolitics of the South Caucasus.