Agricultural Exposure Research Articles

Global Assessment of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposures of Population, Agriculture, and Forest Lands Under Two Climate Scenarios

AbstractClimate change is expected to increase the global occurrence and intensity of heatwaves, extreme precipitation, and flash droughts. However, it is not well understood how the compound heatwave, extreme precipitation, and flash drought events will likely change, and how global population, agriculture, and forest will likely be exposed to these compound events under future climate change scenarios. This research uses eight CMIP6 climate models to assess the current and future global compound climate extreme events, as well as population, agriculture, and forestry exposures to these events, under two climate scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 for three time periods: early‐, mid‐, and late‐ 21st century. Climate extremes are derived for heatwaves, extreme precipitation, and flash droughts using locational‐dependent thresholds. We find that compound heatwaves and flash drought events result in the largest increases in exposure of populations, agriculture, and forest lands, under SSP5‐8.5 late‐century projections of sequential heatwaves and flash droughts. Late‐century projections of sequential heatwaves and flash droughts show hot spots of exposure increases in population exposure greater than 50 million person‐events in China, India, and Europe; increases in agriculture land exposures greater than 90 thousand km2‐events in China, South America, and Oceania; and increase in forest land exposure greater than 120 thousand km2‐events in Oceania and South America regions when compared to the historical period. The findings from this study can be potentially useful for informing global climate adaptations.

Agricultural Pesticide Exposures During Preconception and Pregnancy and Associations With Apgar Scores

Agricultural Pesticide Exposures During Preconception and Pregnancy and Associations With Apgar Scores

Incidence of diarrhea and risk factors among wastewater-irrigating urban farmers along Akaki Rivers in Addis Ababa

ABSTRACT The importance of diarrhea risk associated with wastewater exposure in agriculture is almost unknown. This study aimed to examine diarrheal infection and risk factors among farmers using wastewater for irrigation in Addis Ababa. A cross-sectional study was employed among 380 farmers (190 exposed and 190 unexposed farmers). Among these, a cohort of 200 adults (100 wastewater-exposed, 100 unexposed farmers) aged 25–69 years were selected and followed up biweekly for two successive vegetables growing seasons to examine the incidence of diarrhea. The incidence rate of reported diarrhea was 12 episodes per 1,000 person-weeks at risk and a maximum of 17 episodes per 1,000 person-weeks at risk. Strongly associated risk factors include washing body and clothes with wastewater [AOR: 4.2, 95%CI (1, 11.2)], using working clothes at home [AOR: 4.7, 95%CI (0.25, 87)], and wearing protective cloth [AOR: 5.6, 95 CI (0.3, 70)]. Moreover, hand washing after work, washing feet and boots, and on-site hand washing were significant determinants of farmers’ diarrhea. Exposure to wastewater significantly contributes to the risk of diarrhea among adults. Significant determinants of diarrhea among farmers include washing the body and clothes with irrigation water, contamination with soil and irrigation water, and on-site hand washing. Increased risk factors include hand contamination, washing vegetables with irrigation water, eating raw vegetables, and using work clothes at home.

Impact of Cadmium Contaminated Growing Medium on the Growth and Physiological Responses of Tomato Seedlings (Solanum lycopersicum L.)

Globally, urban areas are facing a rising issue of industrial pollution particularly due to heavy metals like Cadmium (Cd), which pose a threat to both plants and humans. However, plants response to Cd exposure varies based on factors like species, genetics, and growing conditions such as the type of soil and cultivation methods. This study focused on young tomato seedlings subjected to different Cd concentrations (0, 100, 200, and 300 ppm) through a pot experiment, aiming to understand the impact of Cd on various morpho-physiological traits of the "MAYAR F1" tomato cultivar. The results exhibited amazing findings that the chlorophyll contents (21.93 nmol/mg), relative water contents (0.84%), electrolyte leakage (135.5 uS/cm) and leaf area (6.37 cm2) were highest at 300 ppm followed by control. While the maximum number of leaves (11) were noticed in control. Consequently, the study suggests that cultivating tomatoes in urban agriculture soils contaminated with Cd could be a viable option. Nonetheless, it emphasizes the importance of exercising caution and conducting further research to fully comprehend the potential long-term implications and associated risks of Cd exposure in urban agriculture. Keywords: Heavy metal, cadmium; morphological traits, plant physiology, chlorophyll contents, electrolyte leakage.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PROFILE OF FARMERS AND THEIR PERCEPTION ABOUT ORGANIC FARMING

The study was carried out in Gujarat state. Total 160 farmers practicing organic farming and registered under Gujarat Organic Products Certification Agency were selected randomly for the study. Ex-post facto research design was used. The coefficient of correlation was computed to find out the relationship between the variables and the step-wise regression (multiple regressions) analysis was employed to envisage the extent of variation caused by independent variables on perception towards organic farming. Amongst the sixteen selected variables in the study, education, agricultural mass media exposure, scientific orientation, risk orientation, achievement motivation and knowledge about organic farming had positive and highly significant relationship with the perception of farmers towards organic farming. Out of sixteen independent variables, five variables viz. risk orientation, knowledge about organic farming, cropping intensity, annual income and agricultural mass media exposure were found to be influencing on perception towards organic farming which were together contributing 28.70 per cent variation.

“I Do Not Have the Time of Being sick”: Para-Occupational Exposure and Women’s Health Risk Perception in an Agricultural Community

ABSTRACT Introduction Few studies have explored the relationship between para-occupational exposure and risk perception in farmers’ families. Women are indirectly involved in agricultural activities, even though their roles most of the time are hidden. Women’s para-occupational exposure and risk perceptions are important to describe, since women have a key gender role in the family’s health care and possibly in the impact of acting regarding pesticide safety education. Furthermore, in farmer families, the impact of para-occupational pesticide exposure on women’s health has been neglected. Aim Analyze pesticide para-occupational exposure scenario, knowledge, and health risk perception among women living in a farmer community. Methods A mixed methodology was used. Two groups of women were identified to screen the exposure scenario: Women living in a farming family and women not living in a farming family. Data on para-occupational pesticide exposure and intradomicile practices were collected by questionnaire and semi-structured interviews to identify health risk perception and risk practices. Results We observed a complex pesticide exposure scenario. All women were potentially exposed to pesticides through several pathways. One-third of the participants lived near a farming family or in proximity to neighbors that used pesticides at home, and one of every three women referred to spending time in a farmer’s home. Among the group of women in a farming family (n = 18) stored pesticides inside the home was common; having the “safety practice” of storing pesticides in high places to avoid children being exposed. Women not living in farmimg families (n = 11) felt overexposed due to living in an agricultural community and agricultural drift exposure. Women from this group also mentioned feeling fear of developing cancerous diseases as well as fertility problems. Conclusions Knowledge and risk perception of pesticide exposure are similar between groups; however, women living in farming families were less willing to attend preventive health check-ups or educational programs than women not living in a farming family.

The landscape of etiological patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in Thailand.

Thailand is among countries with the highest global incidence and mortality rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA). While viral hepatitis and liver fluke infections have been associated with HCC and iCCA, respectively, other environmental risk factors, overall risk factor commonality and combinatorial roles, and effects on survival have not been systematically examined. We conducted a TIGER-LC consortium-based population study covering all high-incidence areas of both malignancies across Thailand: 837 HCC, 1474 iCCA, and 1112 controls (2011-2019) were comprehensively queried on lifelong environmental exposures, lifestyle, and medical history. Multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to evaluate risk factors and associated survival patterns. Our models identified shared risk factors between HCC and iCCA, such as viral hepatitis infection, liver fluke infection, and diabetes, including novel and shared associations of agricultural pesticide exposure (OR range of 1.50; 95% CI: 1.06-2.11 to 2.91; 95% CI: 1.82-4.63) along with vulnerable sources of drinking water. Most patients had multiple risk factors, magnifying their risk considerably. Patients with lower risk levels had better survival in both HCC (HR 0.78; 95% CI: 0.64-0.96) and iCCA (HR 0.84; 95% CI: 0.70-0.99). Risk factor co-exposures and their common associations with HCC and iCCA in Thailand emphasize the importance for future prevention and control measures, especially in its large agricultural sector. The observed mortality patterns suggest ways to stratify patients for anticipated survivorship and develop plans to support medical care of longer-term survivors, including behavioral changes to reduce exposures.

Efficiency of working coveralls and chemical resistant gloves in reducing operator exposure to pesticides

Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) is used to reduce exposure when working with chemicals. For pesticides, exposure scenarios comprise mixing and loading (M&L) and application. The exposure prediction model recommended by European regulatory agencies for operator risk assessments—the Agricultural Operator Exposure Model (AOEM) – is based on 48 operator exposure studies involving over 500 professional operators from 10 European countries in typical working situations to assess exposure under realistic field conditions. We used the AOEM data to assess the efficiency of exposure reduction resulting from wearing chemical-resistant nitrile gloves and non-certified working coveralls during M&L (tank and backpack sprayer), applications using groundboom and airblast spraying, and outdoor and indoor (greenhouse) applications using handheld sprayers. All studies indicated consistent and high exposure reduction > 90% for gloves and non-certified coveralls across all investigated scenarios. Exceptions were almost exclusively observed when an operator incorrectly used the PPE. The mean exposure reduction from all operators, including those that used PPE incorrectly, was 95.0% for gloves and 96.4% for polyester/cotton working coveralls during M&L, and 91.1% for gloves and 94.9% for non-certified coveralls during all application scenarios. This analysis confirms the essential role of PPE and non-certified working coveralls in reducing operator exposure to pesticides. Outliers indicate that operators need to be properly trained and adhere to label instructions to apply pesticides according to good agricultural practices.

Urinary biomonitoring of glyphosate exposure among male farmers and nonfarmers in the Biomarkers of Exposure and Effect in Agriculture (BEEA) study

Glyphosate is the most widely applied herbicide worldwide. Glyphosate biomonitoring data are limited for agricultural settings. We measured urinary glyphosate concentrations and assessed exposure determinants in the Biomarkers of Exposure and Effect in Agriculture (BEEA) study. We selected four groups of BEEA participants based on self-reported pesticide exposure: recently exposed farmers with occupational glyphosate use in the last 7 days (n = 98), farmers with high lifetime glyphosate use (>80th percentile) but no use in the last 7 days (n = 70), farming controls with minimal lifetime use (n = 100), and nonfarming controls with no occupational pesticide exposures and no recent home/garden glyphosate use (n = 100). Glyphosate was quantified in first morning void urine using ion chromatography isotope-dilution tandem mass spectrometry. We estimated associations between urinary glyphosate concentrations and potential determinants using multivariable linear regression. Glyphosate was detected (≥0.2 µg/L) in urine of most farmers with recent (91 %) and high lifetime (93 %) use, as well as farming (88 %) and nonfarming (81 %) controls; geometric mean concentrations were 0.89, 0.59, 0.46, and 0.39 µg/L (0.79, 0.51, 0.42, and 0.37 µg/g creatinine), respectively. Compared with both control groups, urinary glyphosate concentrations were significantly elevated among recently exposed farmers (P < 0.0001), particularly those who used glyphosate in the previous day [vs. nonfarming controls; geometric mean ratio (GMR) = 5.46; 95 % confidence interval (CI): 3.75, 7.93]. Concentrations among high lifetime exposed farmers were also elevated (P < 0.01 vs. nonfarming controls). Among recently exposed farmers, glyphosate concentrations were higher among those not wearing gloves when applying glyphosate (GMR = 1.91; 95 % CI: 1.17, 3.11), not wearing long-sleeved shirts when mixing/loading glyphosate (GMR = 2.00; 95 % CI: 1.04, 3.86), applying glyphosate exclusively using broadcast/boom sprayers (vs. hand sprayer only; GMR = 1.70; 95 % CI: 1.00, 2.92), and applying glyphosate to crops (vs. non-crop; GMR = 1.72; 95 % CI: 1.04, 2.84). Both farmers and nonfarmers are exposed to glyphosate, with recency of occupational glyphosate use being the strongest determinant of urinary glyphosate concentrations. Continued biomonitoring of glyphosate in various settings is warranted.

Flood Impacts on Agriculture under Climate Change: The case of the Awanui Catchment, New Zealand

We assess the economic and environmental impacts on agriculture of flooding under projected climate change, including land-use change as an adaption response to floods. Our case study area is the Awanui catchment located in the far north of New Zealand, where flooding is a significant hazard. The study uses an integrated approach and combines spatial information on agricultural exposure and damage from flooding, economic land-use modelling, and valuation approaches. We analyse direct tangible and direct intangible flood impacts under various extents, frequencies, and water depth levels. Our results show areas with flood exposure and damage costs increase with projected climate change. As an adaptation measure to reduce flood damage costs, pastoral farms convert to other land uses, mainly to unfarmed land. Flooding reduces the net revenue for the catchment, while it can result in some reduction of environmental pollution. When the probability of all possible flood events are considered, the value of the changes in greenhouse gas emissions are equivalent to approximately 18% of the change in total net revenue, while the value of changes in other environmental outputs is equivalent to less than 1% of the change in total net revenue. Based on this study, the assessment of various flood impacts and adaptation responses to them can help to develop resilience strategies for the agricultural sector to future climate-induced flooding.

Abstract 3438: Associations between estimated endotoxin exposure and circulating immunological markers among male farmers

Abstract Occupational exposure to endotoxin has been associated with reduced lung cancer risk. Farmers who perform certain tasks (e.g., raising hogs) can be highly exposed to endotoxin. The mechanisms through which endotoxin could confer a lower risk of lung cancer, while likely to be immune mediated, are not clear. To address this gap, we evaluated associations between estimated endotoxin exposure and circulating immunologic markers among male farmers in the Biomarkers of Exposure and Effect in Agriculture (BEEA) study. Our investigation included 122 non-smoking farmers from Iowa, oversampling those raising hogs (n=61). We evaluated 58 serologic markers, including some linked to lung cancer, that were measured using multiplex bead-based assays. Based on an algorithm linking personal air measurements in BEEA and published data to reported farming tasks, we estimated cumulative endotoxin exposure in the last 30 days and 12 months before sample collection. We used multivariable linear regression to estimate geometric mean ratios of immune markers across exposure quartiles, overall and by season of sample collection. Higher endotoxin exposure in the last 30 days was associated with increased levels of FGF-2, MIP-3A/CCL20, and sIL-4R (Ptrend ≤ 0.02), and with decreased levels of MDC/CCL22 (Ptrend = 0.02). In analyses stratified by season, the positive associations with FGF-2 and MIP-3A/CCL20 were most apparent in the winter (Ptrend = 0.002 and 0.03, respectively); we also observed an inverse association with sCD27 levels in the summer (Ptrend = 0.03). Similar patterns were observed for endotoxin exposure in the last 12 months. This study is the first to use novel algorithm-based endotoxin exposure estimates to evaluate associations with intermediate lung cancer-related markers. Several markers were associated with endotoxin levels in an exposure-response manner. Our findings suggest possible biological mechanisms through which endotoxin may reduce risk of lung cancer. Table 1. Associations between estimated endotoxin exposure in the last 30 days and selected serum im Citation Format: Somayina C. Ezennia, Laura E. Beane-Freeman, Vicky C. Chang, Shuai Xie, Gabriella Andreotti, Melissa C. Friesen, Jonathan N. Hofmann. Associations between estimated endotoxin exposure and circulating immunological markers among male farmers [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 3438.

Reduced Freshwater Mussel Juvenile Production as a Result of Agricultural and Urban Contaminant Mixture Exposures.

Freshwater mussels provide invaluable ecological services but are threatened by habitat alteration, poor water quality, invasive species, climate change, and contaminants, including contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). Contaminants of emerging concerns are well documented in aquatic environments, including the Great Lakes Basin, but limited information is available on how environmentally relevant mixtures affect freshwater mussel biology throughout their varied life stages. Our main goal was to assess mussels' reproductive output in response to exposure to agricultural and urban CEC mixtures during glochidial development through juvenile transformation and excystment focusing on how exposure duration and treatment affect: (1) the number of glochidia prematurely released by brooding females, (2) glochidial transformation through host-fish excystment, and (3) the number of fully metamorphosed juveniles able to continue the lifecycle. Mussels and host fish were exposed to either a control water (CW), control ethanol (CE), agriculture CEC mixture (AM), or urban CEC mixture (UM) for 40 and 100 days. We found no effect from treatment or exposure duration on the number of glochidia prematurely released. Fewer partially and fully metamorphosed AM juveniles were observed during the 100-day exposure, compared with the 40-day. During the 40-day exposure, CW produced more fully metamorphosed individuals compared with CE and UM, but during the 100-day exposure AM produced more fully metamorphosed individuals compared with the CW. There was reduction in fully metamorphosed juveniles compared with partially metamorphosed for CE and UM during the 40-day exposure, as well as in the CW during the 100-day exposure. These results will be important for understanding how mussel populations are affected by CEC exposure. The experiments also yielded many insights for laboratory toxicology exposure studies. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:1112-1125. © 2024 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Risk assessment of airborne agricultural pesticide exposure in humans in rural China.

Continuous exposure to airborne pesticides causes their gradual accumulation in the human body, eventually posing a threat to human health. To the best of our knowledge, risk assessment study of pesticide non-occupational exposure to residents in agricultural areas has not been conducted in China. In this study, air samples (gas and dust) were collected from inside and outside residences of seven households and an area near the field in a grain-growing area (wheat and maize rotation) for eight months, and the pesticides present were examined both qualitatively and quantitatively. Using a 95% confidence interval, 9 out of 16 pesticides were detected, namely acetamiprid, acetochlor, atrazine, flucarbazone-sodium, imidacloprid, methyldisulfuron-methyl, nicosulfuron-methyl, pendimethalin, and beta-cyhalothrin, and their safety was subsequently evaluated. The results showed that the inhalation exposure of households to beta-cyhalothrin exceeded the acceptable range in the first residential, and the excess lifetime cancer risk of acetochlor inhalation exposure in six households and area around the field exceeds 1E-6, which highlights the need to strengthen preventive screening for cancer risk.

Agricultural exposures and DNA damage in PBMC of female farmers measured using the alkaline comet assay

ObjectiveSeveral studies investigated the link between agricultural occupational exposures and DNA damage, in an attempt to bring elements of biological plausibility to the increased cancer risk associated with them. However, only a few of these studies focused on females.MethodsThe comet assay was performed on PBMC (Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells) samples from 245 females working in open field farming and cattle raising, located in the Normandy area of France. Individual questionnaires on tasks performed were administered at the time of sampling to directly assess exposures. Environmental exposures were issued from a questionnaire assessing the farm productions. Linear regression analyses were done using the DNA damage scores.ResultsRegarding direct exposures, several tasks associated with exposure to potentially harmful chemicals were not associated with DNA damage, but a longer duration of use of herbicide on meadows (p = 0.05) or of cleaning and upkeep of agricultural equipment (p = 0.06) revealed higher DNA damage levels, although the number of exposed women was low. Several indirect and/or environmental exposures were associated with DNA damage in multivariate analyses: a larger surface of meadows (p = 0.006) or the presence of poultry (p = 0.03) was associated with less DNA damage, while the presence of swine (p = 0.01) was associated with higher DNA damage. Smokers and former smokers had less DNA damage than non-smokers (p = 0.0008 and p = 0.03).ConclusionsWe report modified levels of DNA damage for those environmentally exposed to meadows, poultry and pig farming, underlining the need for a better knowledge of the potential health risks experienced by females in this setting.

Screening asthmatics for atopic status using the ALergy EXplorer (ALEX2) macroarray

Background Screening asthma patients for atopy facilitates management. Since 2010, the core biomarker for screening asthma subjects for atopic status has been the qualitative Phadiatop. multi-aeroallergen screen. A more quantitative macroarray, the Allergy Explorer (ALEX2), shows promise as an alternative. Objective The study’s goal was to examine the pros and cons of the use of ALEX2 in the screening of asthma patients for atopic status. Methods We evaluated the atopic (IgE-sensitization) status in asthmatic Amish and Hutterite farm children using the ImmunoCAP and ALEX2 assays in Phadiatop equivocal and positive subjects. Results All 42 asthmatic children were analyzed by Phadiatop and total serum IgE. Of these, 22 had a negative Phadiatop (<0.1 kUa/L) and total IgE <100 kU/L which defined them as non-atopic and they were excluded from ALEX2 testing. Of six children with equivocal Phadiatops (0.1–0.2 kUa/L-Group 1) and three children with a negative Phadiatop but total IgE >100 kUa/L (group 3), 44% (n = 4) had detectable IgE antibody by ALEX2 to mite, tree pollen, and other allergens not detected by Phadiatop, but confirmed by allergen-specific ImmunoCAP testing. In 11 Phadiatop positive subjects (>0.2 kUa/L–group 2), all but one were positive by ALEX2. IgE antibody specific for mold and rabbit aeroallergens matched their agricultural and pet exposure history. Three children were positive for IgE antibody to allergens in the profilin, nsLTP, or PR-10 cross-reactive protein families. Conclusion Judicious use of ALEX2’s enhanced specificity data not provided by the Phadiatop can aid in the interpretation of sensitization patterns and planning management of atopic asthmatics, but sensitization relevance must be confirmed by the patient’s clinical history.

Agricultural exposure and risk of ovarian cancer in the AGRIculture and CANcer (AGRICAN) cohort

BackgroundOvarian cancer is rare with a poor prognosis and few established risk factors. Hormones and reproductive factors significantly impact its development, suggesting a potential link with endocrine disrupters.MethodsIn the AGRICAN...

Noise Exposure, Prevention, and Control in Agriculture and Forestry: A Scoping Review

Noise is a major physical hazard in agricultural activities, and numerous research activities have managed to detect its effects, resulting in surveys and measurements which help to define exposure limits, prevention methods, and control strategies. This review aims to collect and analyse the data from research studies and to provide a comprehensive overview on the subject. Thus, a set of 81 papers, gathered from the Scopus and PubMed scientific databases, has been analysed to provide information regarding the evolution of noise exposure levels over time, to highlight findings on noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL), and to list strategies for noise prevention and control in agriculture. Bibliographic research showed that noise measurements between 1991 and 2022, included in scientific research on farming, forestry, and animal husbandry, mainly reported values beyond the threshold of 85 dB(A); furthermore, several research activities on NIHL showed that farmers’ family members and children are often exposed to high levels of noise. Lastly, an analysis of the prevention and control strategies over time is provided, focusing on prevention programmes, screening, and the use of hearing protection devices (HPD). The identified literature suggests that additional efforts are required in regards to machinery design relating to the socio-technical aspects of agricultural activities and that side-effects of NIHL, as well as the negative impact of noise on other risks, might deserve further investigation.

Exposure of Syrian refugee agricultural workers to pesticides in Lebanon: a socio-economic and political lens.

This article adopts a socio-economic and political lens to elucidate the interplay of factors that heighten the vulnerability of Syrian refugee agricultural workers and their exposure to pesticides in Lebanon. It provides a comprehensive understanding for the interconnected social, political and economic factors at the global, regional, national and local levels and how they increase the vulnerability of Syrian refugee agricultural workers, particularly their exposure to pesticides. The global factors highlight the shifts from colonialism to state-controlled economies to neoliberal policies. These changes have prioritized the interests of large agricultural schemes and multinationals at the expense of small and medium-sized agriculture. Consequently, there has been a boost in pesticides demand, coupled with weak regulations and less investment in agriculture in the countries of the Global South. The article explains how the dynamic interaction of climate change and conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa region has negatively impacted the agriculture sector and food production, which led to an increased potential for pesticide use. At the national and local levels, Lebanon's social, political and economic policies have resulted in the weakening of the agricultural sector, the overuse of pesticides, and the intensification of the Syrian refugee agricultural workers' vulnerability and exposure to pesticides. The article recommends that researchers, policymakers, and practitioners adopt a political-economic-social lens to analyze and address the full dynamic situation facing migrant and refugee workers in Lebanon and other countries and promote equity in the agricultural sector globally.

Development of an indicator to assess past agricultural pesticides exposure in chronic diseases: application to the TESTIS epidemiological study

Development of an indicator to assess past agricultural pesticides exposure in chronic diseases: application to the TESTIS epidemiological study

Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China

Understanding variations in drought characteristics is of great importance for water resource planning and agriculture risk management. Despite increasing interest in exploring spatiotemporal drought patterns, long-term drought event characteristics and their future changes are unclear in major grain-producing areas in China. In this study, we applied Run theory, Sen’s slope, the modified Mann–Kendall method, wavelet analysis, and three machine learning models to systematically examine drought variation patterns, their future trends, and agricultural exposure in Henan Province, China, from 1961 to 2019. The results indicated that the SPEI-12 showed a significant increase at a rate of 0.0017/month during 1961–1999, but this has gradually changed to a drying trend since the 21st century. Drought event characteristics shifted markedly during these two periods, with drought duration and severity gradually shifting from east to west. The BO-LSTM model performed better than the LSTM and BP models, indicating that the drought frequency, higher drought duration, and drought peak would greatly increase 1.28–3.40-fold and cropland exposure is predicted to increase 1.61-fold in the near future compared to the first two decades of the 21st century. This finding not only helps developing meteorological drought predicting models, but also provides the scientific groundwork for drought disaster prevention and mitigation in Henan Province.